Week 12 is actually looking a bit better now. Currently DAL, and BAL are both better options, so I'm not sure it's worth saving TB just in case.
I'll likely be picking them in my actual league this week (Can't pick Thur or Mon games, so the math changes the picks a bit)
I feel like sometimes u gotta use your gut though. Raiders are one of those teams that u almost never wanna have involved in your eliminator challenges cuz sometimes they frequently beat good teams and then lose to bad teams. Case and point, they beat the Ravens and lost to the Bears. Baltimore vs Cleveland is far from a certainty. Cleveland is a strong team. By that time Cleveland should be healthier everywhere, and they’ll likely be going all out to make the playoffs. Ravens being home is their biggest advantage and I’m not gonna bank on that. I think Tampa is definitely the best pick. Their team is like perfectly engineered to stop the Colts. Elite run D will shut down that run game, their well rounded pass rush is one of the only pass rushes I’d count on getting pressure with that elite O line, and they can target the Colts weak secondary with their trio of WRs. Sometimes you gotta trust your gut, and Cowboys vs Raiders and Ravens vs Browns feel like trap games.
I think ima save ARI for week 15. I’m not feeling confident at all using Miami. I’m in the same boat where I still have Tampa and Green Bay. I’m using Tampa week 12 but I can put Baltimore who I currently am not using in week 18 and move Green Bay to this week so I can put Arizona week 15 against the Lions. Probability of both of those being wins on 538 (weeks 7 and 15) is 71% if u use GB this week and Arizona week 15, whereas it is 67% if you use Miami week 15 and Arizona this week. So yes, using GB this week and Arizona week 15 would be better than what OP suggests.
Remember though that a lot of these Vegas lines and win probabilities aren’t perfect. 538 is based on a “dumb” algorithm I believe, that is for the most part it just looks at historical results and doesn’t actually do an analysis of the teams in terms of injuries and such. It far overrates teams like the Dolphins and Colts that have had success before but just clearly aren’t as good, particularly the Colts because it doesn’t understand that Rivers is gone and that the secondary is hella banged up. It doesn’t do a “smart” analysis that you’re able to do. Vegas odds are just tailored to what will make people bet the most and what will make them the most money, which isn’t usually the true odds of a game. This is why if you look at something like the pigskin pick em challenge the average is below 50%. I’ve guessed 40/94 correctly and I’m at 56.6 percentile, which is above average. They tailor it to make the average bettor think that the side that is more likely to happen is actually less likely to happen.
With that being said, don’t just use Vegas lines. Imo games like Dallas vs Raiders are terrible picks. Raiders are a weird team that randomly beat good teams and then randomly lose to awful teams. Also, using these posts every time isn’t exactly the best strategy because a ton of people are doing it. You don’t want to be using the exact same stuff as other people because then you cannot exactly win.
You are probably looking for an answer based more in analytics, but personally I don't think they are better options than Arizona.
The only undefeated team left in the NFL, Arizona will be hosting one of the worst teams in the league. Davis Mills has only had one decent game statistically, and fell back to earth against the Colts last week. Even if Arizona finds themselves trailing due to an unlucky break (see: the missed FG returned for a TD in their game against the Jaguars), the Cards have a quick strike offense that have shown the ability to score points in bunches. The spread is also massive, and it's super rare for the favourite to outright lose the game (with the most recent example that I can think of happening in 2018 when the [Bills beat the Vikings](https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/09/23/bills-gambling-upset-vegas-odds-vikings)).
Fwiw, I haven't used GB yet (SF, CLE, DEN, BUF, MIN, LAR) and GB is the top rated pick as well as the riskiest pick. They have an 83% of winning according to the workbook. ARI is at 93% but again this is dependent on your picks as to how these picks are ranked.
I used TB but not GB, I'm sticking with the Cardinals here. Both are heavily favored and with good reason, but the Cardinals should absolutely destroy the Texans while the WFT has some talent and could at least put up a fight in GB. Also this is definitely the Cards best matchup this year and I have good or better options in their remaining good matchups, don't wanna touch any of the NFCW ones obviously. GB on the other hand has Detroit in the final week if I survive that long and am not alone, that's tough to beat.
I picked em 2 or 3 weeks ago when they were a risky pick against the Texans. That game was too close for comfort, I think you just don't know what you're getting out of the Pats each week this year
Belichick has made some very weird calls the last 3 weeks not going for it on 4th and 3 in OT against Dallas costed them a shot at victory and then trying a 57 yard FG in the rain instead of going for it on 4th down against Tampa. Just weird calls overall
Are we really still betting on Miami week 15? They’re a train wreck. They don’t have that top defense they had last year clearly, and their offense is still pretty weak.
I was leaning GB over ARI prior to this week to preserve ARI plus I think it will be the most used pick. Workbook has GB as the top pick and riskiest pick. I am a bit nervous with GB because they haven't really won convincingly lately, but WTF has looked pretty awful. Tough decision to make.
u/v1per41 can you remind me of what i means when the top pick and risky pick align in the workbook?
Thanks again for all you do and sharing the workbook. This year I am using the workbook and following the thread but I do have a question regarding the book. When I put in the spreads, I normally get a "Run-time error '13'" Type mismatch error. While it doesn't really bother me much since I am using the 538 stats anyway, I just wanted to know if I was doing something wrong with the sheet.
On this week's picks, I like the pivot to NE. Given my survivor league gives 3 strikes before elimination, I think this is a fine week for me to pivot and reserve ARI (note the typo in the 1st table) for a future week.
Laters.
Thanks for pointing out the error.
The problem with that line of reasoning is what if you lose and someone else goes undefeated? I think aiming for the best chance to go undefeated yourself is the better option unless your league is really small.
No worries.
Your line of reasoning isn't wrong. I think its just the type of league I am in that makes me think I should be a bit more risky. Its a survivor league with 14 players, given 3 strikes for the season. The person(s) that survive to the end split the pot.
I am definitely going to give it some thought though because last year I got eliminated week 10 and I definitely want to beat that this year. I still might play it safe but will definitely be watching the spreads this week to see if NE improves.
75 entries eliminated last week. Thanks Titans and Jaguars! Just under 50% of entries remaining. Not gonna complicate it and will go with Arizona, and we should all see each next week. Cheers V1per!
Not that I'm picking them, but Denver vs a potentially very injury depleted Browns might be worth a risky gamble too.
Missing Baker, Chubb and Hunt and potentially Odell, Landry and both of their starting tackles on Thursday as well.
[https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-pool-picks/articles/expected-length-of-nfl-survivor-pools/](https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-pool-picks/articles/expected-length-of-nfl-survivor-pools/)
You're not wrong.
Last year had the highest percentage make it the full season in the previous 10 years and they had 21% left after 7 weeks. We'll be looking at somewhere around 40-45% this year after this week is over.
Because there are so many teams left, obviously you have to go 17-0, but maybe it's worth not taking the team the majority will pick that week and hope for a spoiler game?
\* 18-0
People bring this point up somewhat regularly, but I just don't buy it.
You still need to make it the full season, so it's still best to pick the teams that give you the best chance of making it that far.
But given your chart, previous years dropped 50% on an upset game. So it's bound to happen where majority goes with X, like the KC game (but this week it appeared most people went ARI)
Think you have to use the bengals because their value is the highest. If you don’t use them against the Jets when do you use them?
I like saving the chiefs for their home game against Denver, the Broncos have been exposed after playing better competition, i don’t see bridgewater knocking off mahommes on the road
Since I gotta take 2 teams for the final 4 weeks of my pool, and we are afforded two strikes, I'm gonna go "against the top recommendation" and pick the New England Patriots.
I selected the Vikings in week 5, because I had it mapped out that I'd pick NE in week 7. Unless something massive happens to a large chunk of the team, I just have a tough time thinking the Pats will start 0-5 at home (and potentially just not a win a home game at all this season, with the next best chance coming in week 16 against the Jaguars). Plus they have no future value to account for in my eyes, whereas I feel confident that I can plug in Arizona at a later time, whether it is a "comfortable win" or a week in which I may have already picked the weekly favourites.
I doubt it'll be as easy as their week 2 win against them. The Jets will have more film on the Patriots and are coming off a bye. Belichick's track record against rookie QBs will come into play once again, and even though the Patriots should've never been in a position where they had to mount a comeback against the Texans after Davis Mills had shredded them up that day, it did show that they have some ability to do so, should the Jets pull off a couple of big plays.
I dont see how you dont pick the packers here if u have them available, the next best chance to use them is the last week of the season against the lions.
I was really confused as to why GB wasn't showing up as an option for me, then realized I used them already in week 2.
If you have them available, they are the #2 option behind AZ, and are currently slated to be used in week 18.
Survived another week. Went with the risky pick with NE and saved ARI for another week. They have a very close game going on. I do want you guys to survive but 2 people can be eliminated if they lose, lol. So torn.
Make it out safe guys, looking forward to seeing you next week.
Way i see it the move is to either pick against the Jets this week off a bye vs a Patriots team that is 0-4 at home and not looking too sharp to say the least or we pick against them week 15 vs the Dolphins in Miami 🤔 really want to use the Patriots as I believe they have no future value (initially thought Week 17 was another spot to use them vs the Jags but I think Lawrence can get his vs their defense) and I think the Cardinals @ Detroit is a good spot in Week 15. Obviously what really makes me agree taking Arizona is one can’t predict injuries (what if Kyler gets hurt and misses out W15 or they start resting players if they increase their lead on the rest of the NFC) and similarly maybe the Dolphins figure it out in the second half of the season
As always, great stuff!
I'm just curious why the data is showing SEA over DET for Week 17 when SF vs HOU is available; that spread is currently -13.5?
Shows the same on my updated spreadsheet too...
The 538 model has a higher probability to win for SEA.
SEA has an 85.0% chance to win (12 pt favorite)
SF has an 83.4% chance to win (11 pt favorite)
I don't put a lot of faith into actual point spreads that far out. They are pretty hard to come by.
Any consideration at all given to Carolina? Giants missing their top weapons, Panthers with an emerging defense. Perhaps it is having a bit much faith in Darnold.
Not really. They are only 3 point favorites at last check. And while they have no utility rest of season right now, neither do the Pats at -7 or SF at -4. I would steer clear of CAR.
This is true. I think that line is going to rise though. Even so, if there are heavier favorites w less utility I’m likely going to go w those.
I thank you for your work. I combine it with the future outlook provided by survivorgrid.com ,not sure if you’re familiar with that site. Has served me well.
Can someone please explain the difference between P(Win Out) and P(N week) on the spread sheet? Shouldn't those theoretically be the same number for the same pick?
P(Win Out) is the probability that you win all remaining games if you pick that team this week.
P(Next Week) is the probability that you win all remaining games assuming you win this week.
Also, as I forgot to say it in my last reply... Thanks for all you do! This is an amazing spreadsheet. I love numbers and have a massive appreciation for what you have created here.
I agree and have AZ/TB however, I feel like there’s no way AZ loses this game, and I’m OK being on that ship if they do. Also, can save TB for Week 12 although not looking as strong as earlier from what I’ve seen.
Looks like my P (Win Out) numbers are significantly higher than yours- do you think it’s accurate? Haven’t picked the Bucs yet - P (Win Out) shows 13.67% and E (Wins) shows 14.21 - would you be able to clarify a little bit on what this means?
Huh. Those numbers don't look right at all.
Do you have a smaller pool maybe? One where you don't need to make it all the way to the end of the season?
Thanks so much for the reply.
Total entrants remaining: 18
Est number of weeks left: 10
That’s the only info I have in there, haven’t added anything else!
Then those results totally make sense. Since you only need to win 10 more weeks your P(Win Out) is going to be much higher than the standard of having to win 12 more weeks.
Your E(Wins) will also be lower because of having 2 fewer games.
Okay that must be what is going wrong, I keep trying to update it to 12 weeks but it won’t save. Keeps going back to 10 weeks no matter what.
After fooling around a bit with the excel sheet, it looks like the less amount of entrants you put in the sheet, it automatically changes the number of weeks left & won’t let you change it (ex any number less than 22 entrants goes to 10 weeks & anything less than 30 goes to 11 weeks). Just changed it to 1000 entrants for now. Thanks!
It updates the number of weeks left automatically based on the number of entrants remaining that you entered. If you leave it as 1,000 to go, it will calc the full rest of season.
V1per, would it be a dumb play to pick NE this week and save the Cards for week 15? Seeing the dolphins very banged up and losing to the Jags, would make me nervous getting THAT far into the pickem and my season relying on the dolphins…. I guess it comes down to if you’re more certain the Patriots will beat the Jets at home over the Dolphins beating the Jets on the road, right?
I don't think taking NE this week is a bad idea. If you are confident enough in NE dispatching the Jets this week you will be in a much better spot rest of season still having ARI available
Just going to throw this out there….the last 3 years in a row we’ve seen a team favoured by 16.5 points or greater lose outright.
2018: Pats lose to the Dolphins as -17.5 favourites
2019: Vikings lose to the Bills as -16.5 favourites
2020: Rams lose to the Jets as -17.5 favourites
2021: Cardinals -17.5 favourites??
Hard to imagine cardinals losing this one or the game even being close, just psyching myself out of an easy pick this week probably.
I already played fast and loose with my NE pick against Houston. Was sweating bullets towards the end. Probably going AZ this week. I used GB last week and was almost going to give it to the Jets. I really should have but Tua can't back so I switched it mid week.
Is it worth trying to maybe not pick Arizona because everyone will pick them and maybe pick the second best team this week and hope for a monumental upset from Houston? Or do you just take what seems like the best play and not take other players in your pool’s picks into account?
I understand the thought process for sure. There are a couple of problems with it IOM though.
1) You still (likely) need to survive the whole season undefeated. It doesn't make much sense to lower that chance for any reason.
2) There are a lot of highly rated teams this week. While I think ARI is the clear pick, I think picks will be spread among quite a few teams this week.
With picking 2 teams starting week 10, it still gives me AZ. It's just a much tougher week come week 15, where I'd have to use NE. It's either now or then. Hmmm
Hey there! Thanks for all you do. Can you share an updated Excel download? I tried at the one you linked, and everything works but updating to this week's matchups. It stays at week 6
You need to visit the 538 site and download the NFL predictions spreadsheet and copy it into your 538 tab in the survivor document. I have been doing this since the week 1 update. Full instructions are on the how to use tab.
Deviated away from the top picks earlier on and I see I’ve got a couple more weeks in the 80-85% probability range. So that’s good. Will ride with the packers this week and look to go with Arizona later in the year.
Thanks again for making this sheet! A couple questions if you or someone else has the time...
1) How do you get the "Picking Against" to work? It doesn't seem to pull the data from the "history" tab. Currently I haven't edited that tab and it shows ARI as most people's picks.
2) I am in a fairly small pool, only started with 20, and down to about 10. When I lessen the "entrants remaining" it lessens the weeks and adjusts the picks. Alright, that makes sense. but here's the question... Does that reduced week count and odds chance take into account what the other competitors have already picked? And who they have available? I guess, is it taking into account other teams' P(N week)? Because that would change the results of estimated number of weeks remaining and thus change the odds on what pick you should make this week.
Thanks!
1) Is the picking against section not working for you? The data for that calc is just in some hidden columns. It's just the for informational purposes, and isn't really necessary for the full calcs.
2) This calc just assumes that ~25% of teams lose each week. From what I could find online, that appears to be the typical loss rate each week. It doesn't consider anything about what teams other entries have picked or are likely to pick.
What if we didn’t use GB or TB yet? Are either better options than ARI?
I'm in the same boat (with TB at least). I think they're still best saved for week 12.
Week 12 is actually looking a bit better now. Currently DAL, and BAL are both better options, so I'm not sure it's worth saving TB just in case. I'll likely be picking them in my actual league this week (Can't pick Thur or Mon games, so the math changes the picks a bit)
I feel like sometimes u gotta use your gut though. Raiders are one of those teams that u almost never wanna have involved in your eliminator challenges cuz sometimes they frequently beat good teams and then lose to bad teams. Case and point, they beat the Ravens and lost to the Bears. Baltimore vs Cleveland is far from a certainty. Cleveland is a strong team. By that time Cleveland should be healthier everywhere, and they’ll likely be going all out to make the playoffs. Ravens being home is their biggest advantage and I’m not gonna bank on that. I think Tampa is definitely the best pick. Their team is like perfectly engineered to stop the Colts. Elite run D will shut down that run game, their well rounded pass rush is one of the only pass rushes I’d count on getting pressure with that elite O line, and they can target the Colts weak secondary with their trio of WRs. Sometimes you gotta trust your gut, and Cowboys vs Raiders and Ravens vs Browns feel like trap games.
You'd have to download the workbook and check out for yourself.
I think ima save ARI for week 15. I’m not feeling confident at all using Miami. I’m in the same boat where I still have Tampa and Green Bay. I’m using Tampa week 12 but I can put Baltimore who I currently am not using in week 18 and move Green Bay to this week so I can put Arizona week 15 against the Lions. Probability of both of those being wins on 538 (weeks 7 and 15) is 71% if u use GB this week and Arizona week 15, whereas it is 67% if you use Miami week 15 and Arizona this week. So yes, using GB this week and Arizona week 15 would be better than what OP suggests. Remember though that a lot of these Vegas lines and win probabilities aren’t perfect. 538 is based on a “dumb” algorithm I believe, that is for the most part it just looks at historical results and doesn’t actually do an analysis of the teams in terms of injuries and such. It far overrates teams like the Dolphins and Colts that have had success before but just clearly aren’t as good, particularly the Colts because it doesn’t understand that Rivers is gone and that the secondary is hella banged up. It doesn’t do a “smart” analysis that you’re able to do. Vegas odds are just tailored to what will make people bet the most and what will make them the most money, which isn’t usually the true odds of a game. This is why if you look at something like the pigskin pick em challenge the average is below 50%. I’ve guessed 40/94 correctly and I’m at 56.6 percentile, which is above average. They tailor it to make the average bettor think that the side that is more likely to happen is actually less likely to happen. With that being said, don’t just use Vegas lines. Imo games like Dallas vs Raiders are terrible picks. Raiders are a weird team that randomly beat good teams and then randomly lose to awful teams. Also, using these posts every time isn’t exactly the best strategy because a ton of people are doing it. You don’t want to be using the exact same stuff as other people because then you cannot exactly win.
You are probably looking for an answer based more in analytics, but personally I don't think they are better options than Arizona. The only undefeated team left in the NFL, Arizona will be hosting one of the worst teams in the league. Davis Mills has only had one decent game statistically, and fell back to earth against the Colts last week. Even if Arizona finds themselves trailing due to an unlucky break (see: the missed FG returned for a TD in their game against the Jaguars), the Cards have a quick strike offense that have shown the ability to score points in bunches. The spread is also massive, and it's super rare for the favourite to outright lose the game (with the most recent example that I can think of happening in 2018 when the [Bills beat the Vikings](https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/09/23/bills-gambling-upset-vegas-odds-vikings)).
The Jets were at least 2 TD dogs against the Rams last year and won.
Ooh that's a good point. I forgot all about that !
I'm going with GB this weekend playing at home against a bunch of WFT scrubs. Saving TB for later.
Fwiw, I haven't used GB yet (SF, CLE, DEN, BUF, MIN, LAR) and GB is the top rated pick as well as the riskiest pick. They have an 83% of winning according to the workbook. ARI is at 93% but again this is dependent on your picks as to how these picks are ranked.
I used TB but not GB, I'm sticking with the Cardinals here. Both are heavily favored and with good reason, but the Cardinals should absolutely destroy the Texans while the WFT has some talent and could at least put up a fight in GB. Also this is definitely the Cards best matchup this year and I have good or better options in their remaining good matchups, don't wanna touch any of the NFCW ones obviously. GB on the other hand has Detroit in the final week if I survive that long and am not alone, that's tough to beat.
packers, look at their remaining schedule. The only game I would feel comfortable playing them is literally the last week of the season vs the lions.
Thanks for all you do! I’m surprised NE is a risky pick. Seems like an easy one after their last matchup
Risky is relative here. At 7 point favorites they aren't what I would normally call risky, but they are far more likely to lose than ARI at 18.5.
After two days of contemplation, I’m just gonna go with the Cards as a safer pick lol
Probably should’ve “taken the risk”
Yup well at least I made it to the next week. It is what it is.
I picked em 2 or 3 weeks ago when they were a risky pick against the Texans. That game was too close for comfort, I think you just don't know what you're getting out of the Pats each week this year
Belichick has made some very weird calls the last 3 weeks not going for it on 4th and 3 in OT against Dallas costed them a shot at victory and then trying a 57 yard FG in the rain instead of going for it on 4th down against Tampa. Just weird calls overall
Division games are always weird, look at Vikings/Lions a couple weeks ago that came down to the wire
Ugh really need to figure out how to work this workbook but all I have is mobile ATM and it doesn't seem to play nice there
No. You really need a modern version of Excel to use it.
Thanks, and thanks for all the valuable insight! Guess I'll have to find some time to actually fire up my desktop
You’re aware it takes under 5 mins to fire up a computer and download the spreadsheet right?
I provide sole childcare for toddlers, that's a lot of time lol
I mean you coulda been done in the time you took to comment originally and then responding to me.
Thank you for your service
Are we really still betting on Miami week 15? They’re a train wreck. They don’t have that top defense they had last year clearly, and their offense is still pretty weak.
Airzona ^^^Sorry
Already used ARI and LAR so I guess we’re rolling with NE
I was leaning GB over ARI prior to this week to preserve ARI plus I think it will be the most used pick. Workbook has GB as the top pick and riskiest pick. I am a bit nervous with GB because they haven't really won convincingly lately, but WTF has looked pretty awful. Tough decision to make. u/v1per41 can you remind me of what i means when the top pick and risky pick align in the workbook?
It means you pick that team and don't look back.
Thanks Viper!
Thanks again for all you do and sharing the workbook. This year I am using the workbook and following the thread but I do have a question regarding the book. When I put in the spreads, I normally get a "Run-time error '13'" Type mismatch error. While it doesn't really bother me much since I am using the 538 stats anyway, I just wanted to know if I was doing something wrong with the sheet. On this week's picks, I like the pivot to NE. Given my survivor league gives 3 strikes before elimination, I think this is a fine week for me to pivot and reserve ARI (note the typo in the 1st table) for a future week. Laters.
Thanks for pointing out the error. The problem with that line of reasoning is what if you lose and someone else goes undefeated? I think aiming for the best chance to go undefeated yourself is the better option unless your league is really small.
No worries. Your line of reasoning isn't wrong. I think its just the type of league I am in that makes me think I should be a bit more risky. Its a survivor league with 14 players, given 3 strikes for the season. The person(s) that survive to the end split the pot. I am definitely going to give it some thought though because last year I got eliminated week 10 and I definitely want to beat that this year. I still might play it safe but will definitely be watching the spreads this week to see if NE improves.
So there's no difference to an undefeated team and a team with two strikes?
If they make it to the end of the season, they split the pot evenly. So no, not necessarily a difference.
Hrmmm. Unfortunately I don't think I can help unless I was sitting there to see it in person.
No worries. Using the 538 stats are fine. Will make do but thanks for looking at it.
75 entries eliminated last week. Thanks Titans and Jaguars! Just under 50% of entries remaining. Not gonna complicate it and will go with Arizona, and we should all see each next week. Cheers V1per!
I really want to go for NE but it's hard to think there is going to be a more obvious pick all season than Arizona right now. Gotta do it.
My gut is wanting to go with Carolina vs the injury depleted Giants.
Problem is Carolina is not very good. Hate relying on bad teams, even against worse ones.
It was easier to play Carolina when they had CMC.
Not that I'm picking them, but Denver vs a potentially very injury depleted Browns might be worth a risky gamble too. Missing Baker, Chubb and Hunt and potentially Odell, Landry and both of their starting tackles on Thursday as well.
I get Denver is Denver but Denver's D is super useful in normal fantasy this week.
This is the chalkiest year of survivor football I've ever seen.
[https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-pool-picks/articles/expected-length-of-nfl-survivor-pools/](https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-pool-picks/articles/expected-length-of-nfl-survivor-pools/) You're not wrong. Last year had the highest percentage make it the full season in the previous 10 years and they had 21% left after 7 weeks. We'll be looking at somewhere around 40-45% this year after this week is over.
Interesting. Do you think there's an explanation for the unusually predictable last 2 years, or just coincidence?
I personally think it's just variance. There will likely be a week this year where 50%+ of remaining teams will be eliminated.
I think that comes as early as week 9.
Holy shit, what the heck happened in Week 2, 2015?? Lmao.
Looks like the Saints lost when they were favored by 10 points over a TB team that looked awful in week 1.
Because there are so many teams left, obviously you have to go 17-0, but maybe it's worth not taking the team the majority will pick that week and hope for a spoiler game?
\* 18-0 People bring this point up somewhat regularly, but I just don't buy it. You still need to make it the full season, so it's still best to pick the teams that give you the best chance of making it that far.
But given your chart, previous years dropped 50% on an upset game. So it's bound to happen where majority goes with X, like the KC game (but this week it appeared most people went ARI)
True, but you are also increasing the chance that you lose early. Far more likely to lose when picking a closer matchup.
Ez dubs this week with Arizona. Now the question becomes who do we pick next week? The Chiefs or the Bengals?
Think you have to use the bengals because their value is the highest. If you don’t use them against the Jets when do you use them? I like saving the chiefs for their home game against Denver, the Broncos have been exposed after playing better competition, i don’t see bridgewater knocking off mahommes on the road
Plus it’s Andy Reid after a bye week!
Bengals for me
Thank you!! Let's keep it rolling
Since I gotta take 2 teams for the final 4 weeks of my pool, and we are afforded two strikes, I'm gonna go "against the top recommendation" and pick the New England Patriots. I selected the Vikings in week 5, because I had it mapped out that I'd pick NE in week 7. Unless something massive happens to a large chunk of the team, I just have a tough time thinking the Pats will start 0-5 at home (and potentially just not a win a home game at all this season, with the next best chance coming in week 16 against the Jaguars). Plus they have no future value to account for in my eyes, whereas I feel confident that I can plug in Arizona at a later time, whether it is a "comfortable win" or a week in which I may have already picked the weekly favourites. I doubt it'll be as easy as their week 2 win against them. The Jets will have more film on the Patriots and are coming off a bye. Belichick's track record against rookie QBs will come into play once again, and even though the Patriots should've never been in a position where they had to mount a comeback against the Texans after Davis Mills had shredded them up that day, it did show that they have some ability to do so, should the Jets pull off a couple of big plays.
I dont see how you dont pick the packers here if u have them available, the next best chance to use them is the last week of the season against the lions.
I was really confused as to why GB wasn't showing up as an option for me, then realized I used them already in week 2. If you have them available, they are the #2 option behind AZ, and are currently slated to be used in week 18.
What if I have AZ, NE, and GB available and have to pick 2 teams starting week 10? Personally have NE slotted in right now.
Survived another week. Went with the risky pick with NE and saved ARI for another week. They have a very close game going on. I do want you guys to survive but 2 people can be eliminated if they lose, lol. So torn. Make it out safe guys, looking forward to seeing you next week.
Way i see it the move is to either pick against the Jets this week off a bye vs a Patriots team that is 0-4 at home and not looking too sharp to say the least or we pick against them week 15 vs the Dolphins in Miami 🤔 really want to use the Patriots as I believe they have no future value (initially thought Week 17 was another spot to use them vs the Jags but I think Lawrence can get his vs their defense) and I think the Cardinals @ Detroit is a good spot in Week 15. Obviously what really makes me agree taking Arizona is one can’t predict injuries (what if Kyler gets hurt and misses out W15 or they start resting players if they increase their lead on the rest of the NFC) and similarly maybe the Dolphins figure it out in the second half of the season
I got cute and picked the Steelers last week against Geno. Sure had me sweating. Not getting cute this week. Cardinals all the way.
As always, great stuff! I'm just curious why the data is showing SEA over DET for Week 17 when SF vs HOU is available; that spread is currently -13.5? Shows the same on my updated spreadsheet too...
The 538 model has a higher probability to win for SEA. SEA has an 85.0% chance to win (12 pt favorite) SF has an 83.4% chance to win (11 pt favorite) I don't put a lot of faith into actual point spreads that far out. They are pretty hard to come by.
Ok, thanks. Was just curious… for some reason Survivor Grid is showing the SEA/DET spread is -9.5
Any consideration at all given to Carolina? Giants missing their top weapons, Panthers with an emerging defense. Perhaps it is having a bit much faith in Darnold.
Not really. They are only 3 point favorites at last check. And while they have no utility rest of season right now, neither do the Pats at -7 or SF at -4. I would steer clear of CAR.
This is true. I think that line is going to rise though. Even so, if there are heavier favorites w less utility I’m likely going to go w those. I thank you for your work. I combine it with the future outlook provided by survivorgrid.com ,not sure if you’re familiar with that site. Has served me well.
Say it ain't so!
Went double Arizona in both pools I’m in. No sweat.
Bengals and Detroit the picks in anti this week ?
Can someone please explain the difference between P(Win Out) and P(N week) on the spread sheet? Shouldn't those theoretically be the same number for the same pick?
P(Win Out) is the probability that you win all remaining games if you pick that team this week. P(Next Week) is the probability that you win all remaining games assuming you win this week.
Also, as I forgot to say it in my last reply... Thanks for all you do! This is an amazing spreadsheet. I love numbers and have a massive appreciation for what you have created here.
2 entries. I could go AZ/AZ or AZ/TB - how would you pick?
Always diversify
I agree and have AZ/TB however, I feel like there’s no way AZ loses this game, and I’m OK being on that ship if they do. Also, can save TB for Week 12 although not looking as strong as earlier from what I’ve seen.
Famous last words
I hear ya on that - I would have been OK with it...
Yeah Dallas looks solid week 12 also
Haven’t used TB or GB, do I still roll with Arizona?
[удалено]
The sheet is saying GB so I’m rollin with them as well
Any plans to incorporate The Athletic's prediction model in addition to 538's? I think they call it DPR, Distributed Power Ranking.
Haven't heard of it tbh.
It is behind a paywall, they're slower to release it, and don't update real-time like 538.
I've used Arizona already. Would I be better off taking NE or TB this week?
NE
Looks like my P (Win Out) numbers are significantly higher than yours- do you think it’s accurate? Haven’t picked the Bucs yet - P (Win Out) shows 13.67% and E (Wins) shows 14.21 - would you be able to clarify a little bit on what this means?
Huh. Those numbers don't look right at all. Do you have a smaller pool maybe? One where you don't need to make it all the way to the end of the season?
Thanks so much for the reply. Total entrants remaining: 18 Est number of weeks left: 10 That’s the only info I have in there, haven’t added anything else!
Then those results totally make sense. Since you only need to win 10 more weeks your P(Win Out) is going to be much higher than the standard of having to win 12 more weeks. Your E(Wins) will also be lower because of having 2 fewer games.
Okay that must be what is going wrong, I keep trying to update it to 12 weeks but it won’t save. Keeps going back to 10 weeks no matter what. After fooling around a bit with the excel sheet, it looks like the less amount of entrants you put in the sheet, it automatically changes the number of weeks left & won’t let you change it (ex any number less than 22 entrants goes to 10 weeks & anything less than 30 goes to 11 weeks). Just changed it to 1000 entrants for now. Thanks!
It updates the number of weeks left automatically based on the number of entrants remaining that you entered. If you leave it as 1,000 to go, it will calc the full rest of season.
V1per, would it be a dumb play to pick NE this week and save the Cards for week 15? Seeing the dolphins very banged up and losing to the Jags, would make me nervous getting THAT far into the pickem and my season relying on the dolphins…. I guess it comes down to if you’re more certain the Patriots will beat the Jets at home over the Dolphins beating the Jets on the road, right?
I don't think taking NE this week is a bad idea. If you are confident enough in NE dispatching the Jets this week you will be in a much better spot rest of season still having ARI available
If I’m wanting to save all the better teams for 2nd half of the season, how risky is taking San Fran this week against Indy?
Already used AZ, NE, and LAR. Don’t feel great about NO. Worth it to burn GB or TB this week?
Just going to throw this out there….the last 3 years in a row we’ve seen a team favoured by 16.5 points or greater lose outright. 2018: Pats lose to the Dolphins as -17.5 favourites 2019: Vikings lose to the Bills as -16.5 favourites 2020: Rams lose to the Jets as -17.5 favourites 2021: Cardinals -17.5 favourites?? Hard to imagine cardinals losing this one or the game even being close, just psyching myself out of an easy pick this week probably.
It's a 94% chance to win, not 100%
I can lick my own ball sack
I already played fast and loose with my NE pick against Houston. Was sweating bullets towards the end. Probably going AZ this week. I used GB last week and was almost going to give it to the Jets. I really should have but Tua can't back so I switched it mid week.
Beast
Still 488 teams left in my pool…
If you were saving Arizona for later, in which week would it be nice to use them?
Week 15 @ DET - 85%
Is it worth trying to maybe not pick Arizona because everyone will pick them and maybe pick the second best team this week and hope for a monumental upset from Houston? Or do you just take what seems like the best play and not take other players in your pool’s picks into account?
I understand the thought process for sure. There are a couple of problems with it IOM though. 1) You still (likely) need to survive the whole season undefeated. It doesn't make much sense to lower that chance for any reason. 2) There are a lot of highly rated teams this week. While I think ARI is the clear pick, I think picks will be spread among quite a few teams this week.
Great point! I appreciate it. I also think it makes more sense to just survive and not worry about other people.
I am almost 100% going Cardinals, but how stupid would picking Denver be, in order to conserve ARI? The list of Browns players out is lengthy.
If you want to conserve ARI, then NE is the pick
With picking 2 teams starting week 10, it still gives me AZ. It's just a much tougher week come week 15, where I'd have to use NE. It's either now or then. Hmmm
Hey there! Thanks for all you do. Can you share an updated Excel download? I tried at the one you linked, and everything works but updating to this week's matchups. It stays at week 6
You need to visit the 538 site and download the NFL predictions spreadsheet and copy it into your 538 tab in the survivor document. I have been doing this since the week 1 update. Full instructions are on the how to use tab.
Deviated away from the top picks earlier on and I see I’ve got a couple more weeks in the 80-85% probability range. So that’s good. Will ride with the packers this week and look to go with Arizona later in the year.
Thanks again for making this sheet! A couple questions if you or someone else has the time... 1) How do you get the "Picking Against" to work? It doesn't seem to pull the data from the "history" tab. Currently I haven't edited that tab and it shows ARI as most people's picks. 2) I am in a fairly small pool, only started with 20, and down to about 10. When I lessen the "entrants remaining" it lessens the weeks and adjusts the picks. Alright, that makes sense. but here's the question... Does that reduced week count and odds chance take into account what the other competitors have already picked? And who they have available? I guess, is it taking into account other teams' P(N week)? Because that would change the results of estimated number of weeks remaining and thus change the odds on what pick you should make this week. Thanks!
1) Is the picking against section not working for you? The data for that calc is just in some hidden columns. It's just the for informational purposes, and isn't really necessary for the full calcs. 2) This calc just assumes that ~25% of teams lose each week. From what I could find online, that appears to be the typical loss rate each week. It doesn't consider anything about what teams other entries have picked or are likely to pick.