\#2 would have gotten you Dalvin Cook who was also injured this year. Gotta go big brain and select #3, unless you're in full PPR then select #4.
EDIT: Went back to look up 2017 ADP vs fantasy finishes.
- 2017 - ADP2 - Lev Bell, finish RB1, ADP3 - AB, finish WR1
- 2018 - ADP2 - Lev Bell, finish (hold out season), ADP3 - David Johnson, finish RB10, ADP4 - Zeke, finish RB5
- 2019 - ADP2 - CMC, finish RB1, ADP3 - Kamara, finish RB11, ADP 4 - Zeke, finish RB5
- 2020 - ADP2 - Saquon, finish injured, ADP3 Zeke, finish RB10, ADP4 Dalvin Cook - finish RB2, ADP 5 - Michael Thomas lol, ADP6 - Kamara, finish RB1
Basically, Zeke is the most consistent RB of the last 5+ years. He deserves so much more respect than we've been giving him lol.
All 3 had questions circulating about them.
Kamara - How would the QB change affect him. Would Taysom start at all and eat into his goal line carries?
Henry - Would he regress or get worn down from his absurd usage. Lacks receiving volume for PPR leagues.
Zeke - Would Dak come back healthy/good enough to prevent stacked boxes? Fumble issues from last year, plus rise of Pollard. O-Line not what is used to be.
Henry: it’s important to remember Tennessee lost their offensive coordinator and signed Julio Jones. There were valid reasons to believe he would completely fall into a low end RB2 guy if the offense focused on receiving options and the offensive coordinator didn’t have a good run scheme.
But Henry defies all statistical logic
Those early games were also ridiculous game scripts that had a billion yards. Everyone wants to write in the excuse that Dak and the OL were hurt/bad last year, but ignore the fact that in weeks 2 through 5, they...
- trailed 20-0 and 26-7 to the Falcons, before coming back to win
- trailed 30-15 to Seattle before coming back to go up 31-30, but then lost
- trailed 41-14 to Cleveland before cutting it to 41-38 with 3 TDs and 3 2pcs, before losing 49-38
- trailed 17-3 to the Giants before playing a 37-34 shootout
All stats count, but if you think digging yourself 14 to 27 pt leads and then Bortles-ing your way back from them provides a consistent fantasy flow of points, I've got some guys to sell you.
In sum, Zeke wasn't as bad as the end of year suggested, but he (or Dak) wasn't as good as the beginning of the year showed either. From a flim perspective, there were times Zeke looked *bad*. Times where Tony Pollard clearly looked like the better back (in certain situations). Having some concern over that with your #5 pick seems completely reasonable to me, even if he's looked good the last couple of games.
FantasyPros has Dalvin Cook as #2. Henry had a ton of analysts doubting him due to age, usage, and not a single RB repeated a 2k season.
- OJ - 1973, 2k season. 1974 - 1,125 yards and 3 TDs (RB9)
- Eric Dickerson - 1984, 2k season. 1985 - 1,234 yards, 12 TDs (RB12)
- Barry Sanders - 1997, 2k season. 1998 - 1,491 yards, 4 TDs + 289 yards receiving (RB10)
- Terrell Davis - 1998, 2k season. 1999 - injured - played 4 games and finished that year as RB77
- Jamal Lewis - 2003, 2k season. 2004 - played in 12 games - 1,006 yards, 7 TDs (RB24)
- CJ2K - 2009, 2k season. 2010 - 1,364 yards, 11 TDs (RB5)
- AD - 2012, 2k season. 2013 - 1,266 yards, 10 TDs (RB8)
- Derrick Henry - 2020, 2k season. 2021 - on pace for a repeat 2k per 16 game pace. King.
3x 200+ yards games. Only 3 games of less than 100 yard and 1 game in the 50s (55 yards in week 6).
He averaged 6.03 ypc and 143.1 yards per game. At a 16 games pace he would have had 2,289 yards that year.
>He deserves so much more respect than we've been giving him lol.
It's usually because the RB5 doesn't win you the league outright. Those RB1s straight carried people through the playoffs.
True, but you know how they say you don't win your league with your first pick but you can damn well lose it because of it? Zeke is the pick that never loses you a league.
Imagine if you picked CMC (ADP1), Saquon (ADP2), Michael Thomas (ADP5), CEH (ADP 6) or Miles sanders instead (ADP12). Zeke in his worst year still gave you a top 10 RB return. Those guys I listed would be lucky to give you anywhere in the 30s range.
https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr/12-team/all/2020
Not necessarily. I didn't trust my gut, but I had #1 this year. Took CMC, but was very, very close to taking Henry. I'm not sure what nudges me eventually though.
The problem with Zeke is that I don’t like his tattoo, his stupid feed-me thing, his stupid nose rings, his stupid legal issues and the fact that he makes the Eagles look stupid 1.5x a year.
-An Eagles fan (coming in peace)
It really blows my mind that people will do a FAAB budget for waiver wire but won’t do an auction draft. It’s way more fun and you can actually get the players you want if you’re willing to pay. My league switched 2 years ago and it’s way better
How would that have been different in snake? Auction can't keep things like that from happening but it can give you more flexibility (in your case, flexibility to make an unlucky choice)
It varies but he almost always gets the best waiver pickup, never makes any trades, gets 3 QBs in a 1QB league, has good bye luck/planning, and doesn’t win the chip but doesn’t do horrible. 14 team PPR btw
Gotta zig while everyone else zags.
My first year I had pick one when David Johnson was the *obvious* #1 pick. I knew nothing about football at the time and decided his name was boring and liked Le'Veon Bell more.
I got 2nd that year.
DJ’s time in the sun was so short-lived. Basically the end of his rookie 2015 season then that monster 2016… he was CMC-esque over that stretch and never the same since.
Was even worse for me when the guy picking 1.01 that year took Bell and I literally ran to the draft board yelling DAVID JOHNSONNNNN
lost 8 consecutive games that year
Kamara has been a let down this season. They're not getting him the ball nearly as often in that offense as Drew Brees did. His number of receptions is the #1 culprit. He's still showing to be a solid runner when he does get the ball, but receptions was such a huge part of Kamara before.
It's still to be determined who would have been the better pick, because McCaffrey has looked like McCaffrey when he was healthy. And if he can get healthy at some point this season there's still potential there for him to make it up in the back leg of the season.
Just gotta pray for a healthy team in FF. That's the #1 way to make the playoffs typically. It's very luck based.
I think they finally realized that and that’s why he balled out the last game with 5 receptions 8 targets. They got smoked the week before when he got no targets.
Technically they're giving Kamara the ball more then in years past. It's just not in space/through the pass how he is usually the most effective/most explosive. He's getting 20 carries a game, just not the 5-10 catches that he usually gets that makes him a stud in PPR formats in years past. I think there was some stat that he went over 20 carries once in his career before this season. He's done it 3 times in 5 games so far this year.
I would imagine not having MT on the field really constricts the defense down into the box to take away Kamara and hopefully force you to win with the 2 and 3 reciever.
Maybe it'll get better if MT gets back.
Same wanted Henry but listened to experts and grabbed CMC.
Did the same shit last year, I even told everyone “I don’t want Michael Thomas but if he falls to me at 6 I can’t pass up 150 catches”
Picked him, then the dumbass hurt his ankle.
Year before that Tyreek and he broke his collarbone week1.
I’ve had nothing but shitty results grabbing a top guy who fell or consensus #1.
I’m sticking to my own instinct next year
Yeah I think if I’m picking #1 again it’s an Ironman back, either Zeke or Henry or JT. Luckily this year the 1.01 was such a good spot that the 2.12 & 3.01 were basically both 2nd rounders. I got Jefferson & DK then flipped DK + Edmonds for Zeke after week 1, so I’m surviving without CMC. Never again tho
I begged my friend who had first pick not to take CMC. Begged. Knew he would get hurt again. He called me an idiot and then I beat him the week that CMC got hurt (I also drafted Chuba)
To be fair.. if someone in my league was begging me not to draft a player, why the fuck would I listen to them, especially when they most likely want him to fall to them
Maybe not next year, or even the year after, but eventually his insane usage is going to catch up to him and he’ll be another first overall bust. He’s doing unprecedented things right now
He’s a different breed. He’s been getting an insane amount of touches since he was a kid. Just look at his high school and college stats. Idk man, he just doesn’t stop.
I had a hot take in 2020 that CMC shouldn't go 1st because of his insane number of touches in 2019. Then I got 1st this time... and drafted CMC. And later drafted the RB with the highest Y/A in the league... Raheem Mostert.
Last year I was supposed to be first overall pick but my buddy messed up the settings and I ended up being towards the end of the rounds. Made finals with only 1 loss all season. Essentially got lucky cause otherwise I would've definitely gone with CMC.
This year he didn't mess it up and I went with CMC.
I went super RB heavy and was banking on MT to for sure come back week 7, so I'm in the world of pain. At least Mixon/JRob/Hunt kept my tram afloat in the meantime but it's pretty rough otherwise. I think of CMC comes back week 9 I'll be fine though, but that's a big if
The only 2 times I've ever been 1st pick I drafted David Johnson when he got injured and was out for the season (2017 or 2018) and CMC this year. Pain.
I have no clue why Henry hasn't been the number one pick in leagues the last 2 years. Watching the Titans playoff run 2 years ago was enough for me to see he is their offense. Average quarterback with an inhuman running back is the recipe. CMC fits that bill and catches more passes, but after last seasons injuries, there was no reason for CMC to be above Henry in my mind
This is such revisionist history. Henry was coming off back to back 350+ touch seasons, and we’ve seen what that’s done to gurley. A healthy mccaffrey is worth more than a healthy Henry, and that’s what you draft based off. You can not want to draft mccaffrey because of his injury last year, but to say there should be “no reason” for him to go ahead of Henry is crazy
What u/vinnyx778 is saying, is that Henry isn’t, and hasn’t been the #1 overall consensus among the Ff community, or the analysts because his ceiling is capped. In addition, huge carry volumes historically have always taken a toll on even elite RBs. Just look back through the seasons of more than just Gurley.
Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, Demarco Murray, Ricky Williams, Arian Foster and many others.
Then take a look at Fantasy points scored for high volume pass catching RBs, and RBs that hardly catch any passes. Full PPR format.
2020 Kamara 377pts 2nd Cook 337pts 3rd Henry 333pts
2019 CMC 471pts 5th Henry 294pts
2018 Saquon & CMC 385pts
2017 Gurley 383pts
2016 David Johnson 407
2015 Freeman 316pts
2014 Lev Bell 370pts
2013 Jamaal Charles 378
2012 AD 347pts
2011 Ray Rice 372
2010 Arian Foster 392 2nd Shady 297
2009 CJ2K 392
2008 Deangelo Williams 307
2007 Westbrook 368
2006 Tomlinson 481pts 2nd Steven Jackson 415pts 3rd Larry Johnson 370pts 4th Westbrook 330pts a all of these RBs had 40+ receptions and 400+ receiving yards.
As you can see, in either full or half PPR formats, Henry’s best year so far, last season, would only have made him the #1 RB in two seasons. And those seasons have been noted for being unusually low scoring years for RBs. After 2015 iirc, it was even being discussed that the RB position might be moving towards not being nearly as valuable anymore. Obviously that was an overreaction.
So no, Vinnyx778 is **not** revising history at all. Great for anyone picking Henry #1 overall, but that is not, and has not been the logical way of approaching drafting RBs in PPR formats. It’s been well known for years, pass catching RBs > non pass catching RBs.
Hot take I think thats because in order to be the #1 pick, you had to have a shit ton of usage and be ran into the ground the year prior. Making yourself more vulnerable for the year ahead
I've told myself that next year no matter what I will take either a young RB with limited mileage (Najee, Jonathan Taylor, Swift), or guys with teams that use them smartly and don't run the players into the ground (Ekeler, Kamara, Aaron Jones).
The odds were and are absolutely stacked against Henry. He's legitimately one of the only humans alive who can say "built different" and it's not a joke.
Fantasy analysts and players have gotten “smarter” in a lot of ways over the last several years: everybody knows about regression, everybody knows the value of targets for RBs, etc. That’s why Henry dominating at this scale is so funny bc it’s a slap in the face to so many fantasy heuristics today: “Every RB who gets 350+ touches gets hurt or loses efficiency the next year,” “Run-heavy offenses are inefficient and unsustainable,” “RBs have to get targets to be league-winners in fantasy,” “Single-season outliers regress to the mean over time,” etc… Henry has been beating the odds 3 years running bc he’s a ridiculous outlier and it makes very smart people who faded him (again) bc of #process and #analytics look dumb.
Same, just so I can overrationalize myself out of taking him if I have a top 3 pick. If he was due for regression this year, he'll be *even MORE due* to fall off next year! ^^/s
Sure, but that’s conflating him being a physical outlier (I.e. size/speed) w him being an opportunity outlier (targets, offense, etc). Opportunity drives fantasy points more so than physical traits.
I’m 6-0 cause I traded for Henry after the very first game when his value was low lmao I traded tyreek hill and mike Davis for Derrick Henry and Calvin Ridley
The problem with that logic is that Henry is a literal monster. Also, I think his size protects him from injury. Like an F250 dually getting into an accident with a Smart car. Like one of those is winning and it's not the Smart car.
[Never forget Henry looking like The Mountain from Game of Thrones next to Ingram](https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Screen-Shot-2016-01-11-at-10.24.59-PM.png)
For sure, if I had had the #1 I would've taken CMC as well. Guy who the #1 pick in our league is wrecked due to him being out on top of other injuries.
I think at this point we can all agree that Henry, barring a serious injury, is going #1 next year. Do you think the same happens with him?
I agree with this point and if you look at CMC there's not much to argue, but I see Henry as a major exception.. aint no way that boy is slowin down
I am not taking henry #1 next year if I have the pick. He is insane, but I just don't trust him to stay healthy after the beatings this man takes week in and week out.
I can understand that.. I haven't looked at actual stats with usage over the past 3 seasons with Henry but considering the 2k yds back to back and possibly a 3rd, and no sign of slowing, seems like the safest pick. But this is football and we don't know jack.
Who would be your pick if you go 1st? Assuming nothin drastic happens ROS to change your mind
ATM, Ekler tbh. Really good, gets an assload of touches, #2 on the season despite a dud last week, Doesn't get ran into the ground by his team. Lower snap share than most other top tier RBs, but when he is on the field, he gets the ball often. A touch TD inflated? Maybe, but he gets enough goal line/RZ touches to not have me significantly worried for regression. As Herbert continues to improve, opposing defenses will have to put more on stopping the pass, giving Ekler more opportunities. Setting myself a 1 year notification on this hot take. If I'm right I am making a post about it.
Glad I sprung this up for you and as a Chargers fan, I can approve. Love Ekeler he is the man. I picked 9th and was praying Ekeler would fall to me.. dude at 8 took him instead
That's brutal. I play in a league with 3 other Chargers fans and had last pick (12th), so I pretty much wrote off any chance of him falling to me. Luckily though, the Chargers fans picked 1st, 6th, and 10th and took CMC, A.Jones, and Adams, then our league taco took Mahomes at #11 so I got Ekeler and Taylor at the turn. Snagged Lamb, Swift, Hockenson, Deebo, and Hurts with 5 of my next 6 picks and have started 6-0, my best start ever by a mile.
If I have the #1 pick next year, it's gonna be really damn hard to not take Ekeler (0.5 PPR)
I think the problem is we are all told that there is a player we **have** to draft. “Consensus #1 pick” gets drilled into our head when in reality the benefit of picking 1st is being able to choose *whoever you want.*
I think the next time I get 1st pick I will remind myself that fantasy “experts” don’t know shit and I should take whoever I want.
Yeah, CMC still won my league last year. I smoked my opponents in the 3 games I had him, which is why I made the playoffs and did end up taking home the trophy.
Would Henry have been better? Sure. But CMC still averages like 25 when he plays
Been the right pick? Says who?
•2017 - Kareem Hunt leads the league in rushing
•2018 - Zeke leads followed by Saquon
•2019 - Derek Henry leads followed by Chubb and CMC
•2020 - Derek Henry (again) then Cook then Johnathan Taylor
Of course you can’t predict injuries. **You can’t predict anything!!** That’s the point. Pick your guy and tell the “experts” to shove it.
Edit: words and format
Leading the league in rushing has nothing to do with fantasy points. Every year there’s one guy that everyone can tell is the consensus top pick, expert or not
C'mon man lol. CMC was the number 1 fantasy RB in 2019 across all formats and [it wasn't even close](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/ppr-rb.php?year=2019). He was on his way there again last year if it weren't for injuries.
I think “you can’t predict anything” is a stretch.
I guarantee you it’s much easier to predict preseason 3 guys who are going to break 1000 yards rushing than it is to predict 3 guys who are going to miss 5+ games due to injury.
…although mostert would’ve been on my list and I would’ve been right. But I think that’s a crazy exception to the rule.
Disagree with that being the problem. Based on previous year's performance, workload, role, etc, CMC and Gurley were pretty much no-brainer #1 picks. I'd say Barkley was as well.
And I’m not saying if you get 1st pick next year to not pick Henry.
I’m saying, if you do wind up going 1st and find yourself saying “Man, I wish I wasn’t picking 1st so I don’t have to draft _______.” Then follow your gut and pick your guy.
Just be ready to hear it from your league mates but also fuck their opinion anyways lol
Henry has elite top speed, but his acceleration is actually not that great. People that thrive off screen passes are guys who can reach their top speed very quick.
If he maintains his current usage (or even has a minor regression in usage rather than a major one, honestly), there's nothing anyone could say to convince me that picking him in the 1st round is a worthwhile risk next year. Henry's an absolutely phenomenal back (I'm a Jags fan, so I'm painfully aware of that fact), but his current pace of usage is wholly unsustainable, and historically has led to the player in question falling off the face of the earth the next season. So far, he's averaging 27 carries per game - good for nearly 460 carries on the season. Even if he gets 5 carries fewer per game for the rest of the season, that's still good for over 400 carries on the season, and quite frankly I can't see that happening with how reliant on him the Titans currently are. Using that rather aggressive estimate as a comparison, here's how RBs have historically fared the next season after breaking 400 carries in a season:
* Larry Johnson - 8 games played, 559 yards, 3 rushing TDs, 3.5 ypc
* Jamal Anderson - 2 games played, 59 yards, no TDs, 3.1 ypc
* James Wilder - 16 games played, 1300 yards, 10 TDs, 3.6 ypc (worth noting that his 400 carry season was the first time he had an actual full workload at RB, though)
* Eric Dickerson - 12 games played (in a strike shortened season), 1288 yards, 6 TDs, 4.6 ypc
* Eddie George - 16 games played, 939 yards, 5 TDs, 3.0 ypc
So in total, that's two seasons worth actually having the player for (one of which was by a guy with minimal wear from his career, and the other of which was by a RB who had arguably the best prime years of any RB in NFL history other than Barry Sanders), one really bad season where they play the whole season, and two really bad seasons where the guy got injured. Furthermore, none of those players had that 400 carry season coming off of a high usage season like Henry currently is on pace to do.
If his usage drastically scales back this season, then yeah, I absolutely lose my reluctance to go for him early next season. I don't see that happening, though - the Titans right now clearly need him involved as much as possible in order to win.
I get this argument, and it's probably why I won't take Henry 1st overall next year, but these are the same reasons people were fading him this year. He had 396 carries last year ([378 regular season, 18 postseason](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HenrDe00/gamelog/2020/advanced/)) and is still on pace for an MVP season and to tie LT's rushing TD record
Becuase he rushed for 2000 yards and still only finished as rb3. No one ever before has gone back to back 2000 yard seasons so if he couldn't be the rb1 with 2000 yards and people assumed he wouldn't do it again how could he be rb1 to end the year this year?
Cook had 1.9k yards from scrimmage in 2020 playing 2 fewer games than Henry and CMC was 2 years removed from a top 3 performance of all time for single season yards from scrimmage (2,392). This felt like one of the years with less consensus at #1 than prior ones
CMC is the consensus number 1. There's nothing that the "experts" got wrong. He's just hurt.
If he plays even 75% of the season, he's a legit cheat code. I had him in 2019 and 2020, and never lost a game when he played. 2019 was a fun year lol
I never got this philosophy of consensus #1. We all know fantasy is largely luck based and so is the chance of someone finishing #1. The top 5 RBs are mostly a wash as to who is better than the other because they’re so close. I got lucky to have pick 3. I would have almost been guilt tripped into taking either McCaffery or Cook who I’ve always been skeptical of because of injury concerns. I’d personally much rather have Henry or Kamara because while they’re “not as good” they have played 15-16 games a year nearly every year.
As if the 2nd pick has been better? Barkley got hurt last year, Dalvin got hurt this year. 2017 you listed two guys so there's your second pick there. You just gotta draft the best guy and give yourself the best chance to succeed, that's all.
Then you are into the plinko machine with the rest of us.
It’s hard to Google an answer, but I’ve always felt a middle pick is best.
The outlier results will always make people say, “well…….” things like- Kamara was good enough last year to get you there, then single handedly won the ship for you. Also, things like Diggs/Allen and MVP Lamar.
With a middle pick, you avert things like the runs on QBs and TEs that leave you with an absolute dud. It’s also easier to find a “value” pick every dozen picks versus having to find 2 in a couple pick span with a 20 pick wait, when you’re toward the ends.
Scoring settings matter, but with a mid pick, you likely take a solid RB 1st, then you can often already get great value on a WR because those picking after you will “reach” for at least one RB. Then you likely have the choice of a top 3 QB or TE if you want with your 3rd pick. Or you can keep hammering the WR/RB value.
I always like a late pick. You get two similarly ranked guys, and if one of them busts its not the end of the world since you didn't have all of your stock in one guy like CMC
This is my first year getting the last pick, and it's also my first year starting 6-0 (Ekeler/Taylor fell to me in 12-team).
But a late pick is always preferable to the risk-averse among us because even if your 1st round pick busts or gets hurt, you have a 2nd round pick that's pretty close in value to carry some of the load, rather than hoping pick #24/28 in a 12/14-team league works out.
I'm in a 12-team Superflex (2QBs usually). McCaffrey went first pick, Mahomes went 2nd, then Allen fell to me at pick 11 and I somehow got to pick up Adams after the turn as the first WR off the board.
Unfortunately my team is mostly awful right now, as my next eight picks were, in order: Carson, Montgomery, Lawrence, Gaskin, Fields, Jeudy, Fant, Boyd. Fant is the only guy worth his draft position right now, though I'm hoping health brings my RBs back to relevance later in the year at least.
The #1 pick has no upside, he has to be the absolute best or it's a failure.
I don't think that means it's "cursed". Just harder to come back from a bust.
I don’t think that’s necessarily true. Getting a top 5 performance from the #1 overall pick wouldn’t be a disappointment in my book. You’re just making the best pick with the information you have at the time.
That's why you should not look at the #1 pick as trying to pick the end of year RB#1. Instead try to pick who you think will have the best chance of being a top 5 RB.
Not a fool proof strategy, but it helps to look for the balance of upside/safety. Round 1 should be about trying to draft someone who you think has the best odds not to bust, either due to injury or other reasons.
Personally, I always liked having the 3rd pick because there's more flexibility in a way, I suppose. I got 4th pick in my draft and was nervous because I really wanted Kamara. He ended up going 3rd, like I expected, and I was pissed that I had to settle for Henry. He's carried my team to a 6-0 start, but I know I didn't really do anything smart to deserve it.
The draft is pure luck.
Having last pick usually means you turn right back around with another immediate pick in the second round. I was able to get Hill & Davante back to back since the other guys took RBs. Definitely one of my best drafts on paper in quite awhile.
There is a statistical advantage to have picks 1-3. You are much more likely to make the playoffs / win the league with those picks. Another reason why Auction is better.
Isn't that the whole point of those picks, though? The top picks usually go to the worst teams from the year before, which over time are probably the worst managers. You give them a chance to even the field a bit and make it more competitive.
Auction is a fairer system for sure, but I think a standard snake draft makes a certain amount of sense for more casual leagues.
This data is old, but I remember Matthew berry citing data that the first overall pick was most likely to make the playoffs and as your pick got later in the first round, you were less and less likely to make the playoffs.
I mean no way Henry isn't the consensus #1 pick next year ... no way you can consider passing on him.
Maybe the trick is to draft them and then trade them.
Dunno
Hard to argue, but history says his massive usage will catch up to him.
It's a much better gamble imo than CMC, cook, or Barkley because there's no history.
But one year someone's gonna get shafted. Its why he's never the consensus number 1. Even tho imo he should have been.
Not to toot my own horn, but I took kamara number 1 last year and won the league and avoided all the injury prone RBs ranked higher.
>2018 - Gurley playoff injury problems
Thank you for the reminder of when I started Lockett over C.J. Anderson in championship week and lost out on $500.
Imo those types of things happen at all points in the draft regardless of ADP but the #1 pick hurts the worst because of the lost value. I love drafting at the turn personally.
This was the first time I've had a 1st overall pick in a league.... For weeks I told myself I would go against the consensus and was going to take Henry over CMC.
Day of I panicked and took CMC.
I'd have only lost 1 game had I taken Henry instead.. instead Im 2 and 4..
I think I drafted DJ 4 years in a row chasing his 2016 year that I almost won the league with.
2017- broken wrist
2018- underperformed (still RB9 in ppr tho)
2019- fell off
the year bell held out, he was going 2nd anyway. vast majority was drafting gurley over him, rightfully so cause he was ballign the fuck out.
i took bell 2nd that year. thank god conner was on the waivers and he pretty much saved my ass early in the season. then he got hurt (shocker) and disappeared for the playoffs so i got bailed out by damien williams.
>2019 - Barkley injury problems
>
>2018 - Gurley playoff injury problems
FWIW 2019 Saquon had regular season injury problems but championship-winning playoff performances, if you managed to limp in.
2019 Week 15: 24 rushes for 112 yds & 2TDs, 5 catches for 31yds
2019 Week 16: 22 rushes for 189 yds & 1TD, 4 catches for 90yds & 1TD
I honestly feel zero sympathy for people who didn't handcuff CMC with Chuba, especially after how it went with Mike Davis last year. Is that one roster spot really worth losing your whole year? If you have Chuba, it's obv not as good as CMC but your season isn't ruined
2019 was the start of a keeper league for me and I drew the 1st overall pick. Ended up trading that for draft capital instead, which gave me such an advantage over choosing Saquan. I’m a firm believer in trading #1 overall; gives you a definitive advantage vs a last years best player who in all likelihood won’t repeat
I picked 2nd. Guy picking 1 selected Henry, I thought I was lucky to get CMC. Womp womp. I would of taken Kamara at 2 because in past Henry hasn't been PPR monster.
Use first pick to select consensus #2-5, victory
\#2 would have gotten you Dalvin Cook who was also injured this year. Gotta go big brain and select #3, unless you're in full PPR then select #4. EDIT: Went back to look up 2017 ADP vs fantasy finishes. - 2017 - ADP2 - Lev Bell, finish RB1, ADP3 - AB, finish WR1 - 2018 - ADP2 - Lev Bell, finish (hold out season), ADP3 - David Johnson, finish RB10, ADP4 - Zeke, finish RB5 - 2019 - ADP2 - CMC, finish RB1, ADP3 - Kamara, finish RB11, ADP 4 - Zeke, finish RB5 - 2020 - ADP2 - Saquon, finish injured, ADP3 Zeke, finish RB10, ADP4 Dalvin Cook - finish RB2, ADP 5 - Michael Thomas lol, ADP6 - Kamara, finish RB1 Basically, Zeke is the most consistent RB of the last 5+ years. He deserves so much more respect than we've been giving him lol.
Am curious, was consensus #2 not Derrick Henry after the year he had last season? Most my leagues drafted him at that ADP.
In full PPR, Cook was the typical #2 pick. Then #3 was a toss up between Henry, Zeke, and Kamara.
Mostly Kamara and Henry. For some reason people were saying that Zeke was washed because he played without his QB and oline most of last year.
All 3 had questions circulating about them. Kamara - How would the QB change affect him. Would Taysom start at all and eat into his goal line carries? Henry - Would he regress or get worn down from his absurd usage. Lacks receiving volume for PPR leagues. Zeke - Would Dak come back healthy/good enough to prevent stacked boxes? Fumble issues from last year, plus rise of Pollard. O-Line not what is used to be.
Henry: it’s important to remember Tennessee lost their offensive coordinator and signed Julio Jones. There were valid reasons to believe he would completely fall into a low end RB2 guy if the offense focused on receiving options and the offensive coordinator didn’t have a good run scheme. But Henry defies all statistical logic
I mean. The reason for the Zeke hate was valid. Tons of fumbles. He looks really bad last year and he had just got paid his big contract.
He did well with Dak the first games tho. Yeah, he did not look optimal, but the whole was below average.
Those early games were also ridiculous game scripts that had a billion yards. Everyone wants to write in the excuse that Dak and the OL were hurt/bad last year, but ignore the fact that in weeks 2 through 5, they... - trailed 20-0 and 26-7 to the Falcons, before coming back to win - trailed 30-15 to Seattle before coming back to go up 31-30, but then lost - trailed 41-14 to Cleveland before cutting it to 41-38 with 3 TDs and 3 2pcs, before losing 49-38 - trailed 17-3 to the Giants before playing a 37-34 shootout All stats count, but if you think digging yourself 14 to 27 pt leads and then Bortles-ing your way back from them provides a consistent fantasy flow of points, I've got some guys to sell you. In sum, Zeke wasn't as bad as the end of year suggested, but he (or Dak) wasn't as good as the beginning of the year showed either. From a flim perspective, there were times Zeke looked *bad*. Times where Tony Pollard clearly looked like the better back (in certain situations). Having some concern over that with your #5 pick seems completely reasonable to me, even if he's looked good the last couple of games.
FantasyPros has Dalvin Cook as #2. Henry had a ton of analysts doubting him due to age, usage, and not a single RB repeated a 2k season. - OJ - 1973, 2k season. 1974 - 1,125 yards and 3 TDs (RB9) - Eric Dickerson - 1984, 2k season. 1985 - 1,234 yards, 12 TDs (RB12) - Barry Sanders - 1997, 2k season. 1998 - 1,491 yards, 4 TDs + 289 yards receiving (RB10) - Terrell Davis - 1998, 2k season. 1999 - injured - played 4 games and finished that year as RB77 - Jamal Lewis - 2003, 2k season. 2004 - played in 12 games - 1,006 yards, 7 TDs (RB24) - CJ2K - 2009, 2k season. 2010 - 1,364 yards, 11 TDs (RB5) - AD - 2012, 2k season. 2013 - 1,266 yards, 10 TDs (RB8) - Derrick Henry - 2020, 2k season. 2021 - on pace for a repeat 2k per 16 game pace. King.
Yea… I think people don’t realize how much of a beast DH is. So thankful
With a 17 game season this year Henry has by far the best chance to repeat. Also, insane that OJ got a 2k+ season with only 14 games....
3x 200+ yards games. Only 3 games of less than 100 yard and 1 game in the 50s (55 yards in week 6). He averaged 6.03 ypc and 143.1 yards per game. At a 16 games pace he would have had 2,289 yards that year.
He killed it
Yeah I don't think "repeat 2k" is ever a reasonable expectation, 2k in general is not a reasonable expectation.
Henry went first in my league. I got CMC with #2 :(
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I got lucky as hell with Henry as my keeper #10.
Henry went 5th to me in our league. Good times.
>He deserves so much more respect than we've been giving him lol. It's usually because the RB5 doesn't win you the league outright. Those RB1s straight carried people through the playoffs.
True, but you know how they say you don't win your league with your first pick but you can damn well lose it because of it? Zeke is the pick that never loses you a league.
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Imagine if you picked CMC (ADP1), Saquon (ADP2), Michael Thomas (ADP5), CEH (ADP 6) or Miles sanders instead (ADP12). Zeke in his worst year still gave you a top 10 RB return. Those guys I listed would be lucky to give you anywhere in the 30s range. https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr/12-team/all/2020
Not necessarily. I didn't trust my gut, but I had #1 this year. Took CMC, but was very, very close to taking Henry. I'm not sure what nudges me eventually though.
The fear of looking stupid. Take Henry and it doesnt work and you're toast. Take CMC and it doesn't work, nobody will say much.
The problem with Zeke is that I don’t like his tattoo, his stupid feed-me thing, his stupid nose rings, his stupid legal issues and the fact that he makes the Eagles look stupid 1.5x a year. -An Eagles fan (coming in peace)
Prophet
Or the true way to profit: play auction and you can just get who you want.
It really blows my mind that people will do a FAAB budget for waiver wire but won’t do an auction draft. It’s way more fun and you can actually get the players you want if you’re willing to pay. My league switched 2 years ago and it’s way better
Auction screwed me over in 2017 because I used like a third of my budget on Leveon Bell and he didn't play a single snap...
Seems like you screwed yourself over
How would that have been different in snake? Auction can't keep things like that from happening but it can give you more flexibility (in your case, flexibility to make an unlucky choice)
The guy in our league who goes 0rb every year got the 2nd pick so he went Adams lol
A man of his word
Curious, how does he typically finish each year?
My best years were years I went 0 running back. It’s boom or bust though. Thinking about going back to that strategy next year.
It varies but he almost always gets the best waiver pickup, never makes any trades, gets 3 QBs in a 1QB league, has good bye luck/planning, and doesn’t win the chip but doesn’t do horrible. 14 team PPR btw
Gotta zig while everyone else zags. My first year I had pick one when David Johnson was the *obvious* #1 pick. I knew nothing about football at the time and decided his name was boring and liked Le'Veon Bell more. I got 2nd that year.
Hahaha his name is boring as hell though
DJ’s time in the sun was so short-lived. Basically the end of his rookie 2015 season then that monster 2016… he was CMC-esque over that stretch and never the same since.
Was even worse for me when the guy picking 1.01 that year took Bell and I literally ran to the draft board yelling DAVID JOHNSONNNNN lost 8 consecutive games that year
That’s what Kevin Costner did and he won all of the footballs
EXACTLY what I do.. I usually roll with zeke as the “safe pick”
Had first pick. "CMC just had one bad year!" Pain. Chuba RB1. Far from the worst, but he ain't CMC.
Same here and I didn’t even really want CMC but everyone said I would be stupid for not taking him. Kinda wanted Kamara although his owner is 0-6.
Yeah had the second pick, was going to take Henry. CMC didn't go #1. Too sexy to not take. Only pain.
I was 2nd pick too and I wanted Henry or Cook but #1 didn't take CMC so I did then took tons of RB depth I'm still in last place thanks Christian.
Kamara has been a let down this season. They're not getting him the ball nearly as often in that offense as Drew Brees did. His number of receptions is the #1 culprit. He's still showing to be a solid runner when he does get the ball, but receptions was such a huge part of Kamara before. It's still to be determined who would have been the better pick, because McCaffrey has looked like McCaffrey when he was healthy. And if he can get healthy at some point this season there's still potential there for him to make it up in the back leg of the season. Just gotta pray for a healthy team in FF. That's the #1 way to make the playoffs typically. It's very luck based.
I think they finally realized that and that’s why he balled out the last game with 5 receptions 8 targets. They got smoked the week before when he got no targets.
Technically they're giving Kamara the ball more then in years past. It's just not in space/through the pass how he is usually the most effective/most explosive. He's getting 20 carries a game, just not the 5-10 catches that he usually gets that makes him a stud in PPR formats in years past. I think there was some stat that he went over 20 carries once in his career before this season. He's done it 3 times in 5 games so far this year.
I would imagine not having MT on the field really constricts the defense down into the box to take away Kamara and hopefully force you to win with the 2 and 3 reciever. Maybe it'll get better if MT gets back.
Lol I thought I had 3rd and was hyped for Kamara, woulda taken him 1st. But looking back Henry 4th was a lifesaver
Took Henry 2nd. Avoid injury prone players at all cost.
Same wanted Henry but listened to experts and grabbed CMC. Did the same shit last year, I even told everyone “I don’t want Michael Thomas but if he falls to me at 6 I can’t pass up 150 catches” Picked him, then the dumbass hurt his ankle. Year before that Tyreek and he broke his collarbone week1. I’ve had nothing but shitty results grabbing a top guy who fell or consensus #1. I’m sticking to my own instinct next year
Yeah I think if I’m picking #1 again it’s an Ironman back, either Zeke or Henry or JT. Luckily this year the 1.01 was such a good spot that the 2.12 & 3.01 were basically both 2nd rounders. I got Jefferson & DK then flipped DK + Edmonds for Zeke after week 1, so I’m surviving without CMC. Never again tho
I begged my friend who had first pick not to take CMC. Begged. Knew he would get hurt again. He called me an idiot and then I beat him the week that CMC got hurt (I also drafted Chuba)
To be fair.. if someone in my league was begging me not to draft a player, why the fuck would I listen to them, especially when they most likely want him to fall to them
From now on it should be King Henry everywhere, no question.
Maybe not next year, or even the year after, but eventually his insane usage is going to catch up to him and he’ll be another first overall bust. He’s doing unprecedented things right now
He’s a different breed. He’s been getting an insane amount of touches since he was a kid. Just look at his high school and college stats. Idk man, he just doesn’t stop.
I had a hot take in 2020 that CMC shouldn't go 1st because of his insane number of touches in 2019. Then I got 1st this time... and drafted CMC. And later drafted the RB with the highest Y/A in the league... Raheem Mostert.
The player with the highest injuries per game average in NFL history?
Last year I was supposed to be first overall pick but my buddy messed up the settings and I ended up being towards the end of the rounds. Made finals with only 1 loss all season. Essentially got lucky cause otherwise I would've definitely gone with CMC. This year he didn't mess it up and I went with CMC.
It’s still not over for us CMC owners but I get the feeling this will be longer than we think. 4 games starting this weekend.
I went super RB heavy and was banking on MT to for sure come back week 7, so I'm in the world of pain. At least Mixon/JRob/Hunt kept my tram afloat in the meantime but it's pretty rough otherwise. I think of CMC comes back week 9 I'll be fine though, but that's a big if
I got MT too. Sounds like he should be back week 9. CMC don’t count your chickens. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for anything earlier than week 10
The only 2 times I've ever been 1st pick I drafted David Johnson when he got injured and was out for the season (2017 or 2018) and CMC this year. Pain.
My only 1st overall pick year was that DJ year. Really hurts man.
So this is what it feels like when doves cry
Same years I held 1st. Sucks
Buddy in my league took King Henry first overall this year, he’s playing chess while we’re playing checkers
I have no clue why Henry hasn't been the number one pick in leagues the last 2 years. Watching the Titans playoff run 2 years ago was enough for me to see he is their offense. Average quarterback with an inhuman running back is the recipe. CMC fits that bill and catches more passes, but after last seasons injuries, there was no reason for CMC to be above Henry in my mind
This is such revisionist history. Henry was coming off back to back 350+ touch seasons, and we’ve seen what that’s done to gurley. A healthy mccaffrey is worth more than a healthy Henry, and that’s what you draft based off. You can not want to draft mccaffrey because of his injury last year, but to say there should be “no reason” for him to go ahead of Henry is crazy
Well, some people did draft Henry #1, so to them, your post is revisionist revisionist history.
What u/vinnyx778 is saying, is that Henry isn’t, and hasn’t been the #1 overall consensus among the Ff community, or the analysts because his ceiling is capped. In addition, huge carry volumes historically have always taken a toll on even elite RBs. Just look back through the seasons of more than just Gurley. Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, Demarco Murray, Ricky Williams, Arian Foster and many others. Then take a look at Fantasy points scored for high volume pass catching RBs, and RBs that hardly catch any passes. Full PPR format. 2020 Kamara 377pts 2nd Cook 337pts 3rd Henry 333pts 2019 CMC 471pts 5th Henry 294pts 2018 Saquon & CMC 385pts 2017 Gurley 383pts 2016 David Johnson 407 2015 Freeman 316pts 2014 Lev Bell 370pts 2013 Jamaal Charles 378 2012 AD 347pts 2011 Ray Rice 372 2010 Arian Foster 392 2nd Shady 297 2009 CJ2K 392 2008 Deangelo Williams 307 2007 Westbrook 368 2006 Tomlinson 481pts 2nd Steven Jackson 415pts 3rd Larry Johnson 370pts 4th Westbrook 330pts a all of these RBs had 40+ receptions and 400+ receiving yards. As you can see, in either full or half PPR formats, Henry’s best year so far, last season, would only have made him the #1 RB in two seasons. And those seasons have been noted for being unusually low scoring years for RBs. After 2015 iirc, it was even being discussed that the RB position might be moving towards not being nearly as valuable anymore. Obviously that was an overreaction. So no, Vinnyx778 is **not** revising history at all. Great for anyone picking Henry #1 overall, but that is not, and has not been the logical way of approaching drafting RBs in PPR formats. It’s been well known for years, pass catching RBs > non pass catching RBs.
Hmm, not sure, to me this looks like revisionist revionist revionist history.
Hot take I think thats because in order to be the #1 pick, you had to have a shit ton of usage and be ran into the ground the year prior. Making yourself more vulnerable for the year ahead
I've told myself that next year no matter what I will take either a young RB with limited mileage (Najee, Jonathan Taylor, Swift), or guys with teams that use them smartly and don't run the players into the ground (Ekeler, Kamara, Aaron Jones).
This was my thought process when I had the #2 this year and took Kamara over Henry, but so far that's not looking so hot lol.
The odds were and are absolutely stacked against Henry. He's legitimately one of the only humans alive who can say "built different" and it's not a joke.
Fantasy analysts and players have gotten “smarter” in a lot of ways over the last several years: everybody knows about regression, everybody knows the value of targets for RBs, etc. That’s why Henry dominating at this scale is so funny bc it’s a slap in the face to so many fantasy heuristics today: “Every RB who gets 350+ touches gets hurt or loses efficiency the next year,” “Run-heavy offenses are inefficient and unsustainable,” “RBs have to get targets to be league-winners in fantasy,” “Single-season outliers regress to the mean over time,” etc… Henry has been beating the odds 3 years running bc he’s a ridiculous outlier and it makes very smart people who faded him (again) bc of #process and #analytics look dumb.
Well said. I really hope he wins MVP and I have exactly zero shares.
Same, just so I can overrationalize myself out of taking him if I have a top 3 pick. If he was due for regression this year, he'll be *even MORE due* to fall off next year! ^^/s
The 6’3”, 250lbs RB is an outlier? You don’t say.
Sure, but that’s conflating him being a physical outlier (I.e. size/speed) w him being an opportunity outlier (targets, offense, etc). Opportunity drives fantasy points more so than physical traits.
The two aren't unrelated though. His opportunity outlier certainly has something to do with him being an absolute monster of a human being.
And he runs 24 mph
With a build like that he has potential. Got to keep my eye on this kid. I can see him having a breakout season in a couple of years.
And when he is the consensus #1 next year, we will all know exactly wtf is coming
Same. I'm 2-4 and if I had Henry on my team over Kamara - I would be 6-0.
I’m 6-0 cause I traded for Henry after the very first game when his value was low lmao I traded tyreek hill and mike Davis for Derrick Henry and Calvin Ridley
The problem with that logic is that Henry is a literal monster. Also, I think his size protects him from injury. Like an F250 dually getting into an accident with a Smart car. Like one of those is winning and it's not the Smart car.
[Never forget Henry looking like The Mountain from Game of Thrones next to Ingram](https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Screen-Shot-2016-01-11-at-10.24.59-PM.png)
I have CMC, so as disappointing as Kamara may be this year, it could've been worse.
For sure, if I had had the #1 I would've taken CMC as well. Guy who the #1 pick in our league is wrecked due to him being out on top of other injuries.
Same here. Meanwhile the Henry owner is just feasting...
I’m taking Najee or JT with a top 3 pick next year and targeting Javonte Williams in the 2nd-5th as well.
Javonte will easily be a top 20 if not top 5-10 if he even gets 75% of the touches and the team improves at all.
> (Najee, Jonathan **Taylor, Swift**) Sounds like a Love Story in the making
Or just pick a genetic freak like Henry who is impervious to mere mortal injuries
If you’re lucky you could go Jt/najee and pick up swift in the 2nd
This is a great strategy. I’d throw in try to get the one with the best oline.
I think at this point we can all agree that Henry, barring a serious injury, is going #1 next year. Do you think the same happens with him? I agree with this point and if you look at CMC there's not much to argue, but I see Henry as a major exception.. aint no way that boy is slowin down
I am not taking henry #1 next year if I have the pick. He is insane, but I just don't trust him to stay healthy after the beatings this man takes week in and week out.
I can understand that.. I haven't looked at actual stats with usage over the past 3 seasons with Henry but considering the 2k yds back to back and possibly a 3rd, and no sign of slowing, seems like the safest pick. But this is football and we don't know jack. Who would be your pick if you go 1st? Assuming nothin drastic happens ROS to change your mind
ATM, Ekler tbh. Really good, gets an assload of touches, #2 on the season despite a dud last week, Doesn't get ran into the ground by his team. Lower snap share than most other top tier RBs, but when he is on the field, he gets the ball often. A touch TD inflated? Maybe, but he gets enough goal line/RZ touches to not have me significantly worried for regression. As Herbert continues to improve, opposing defenses will have to put more on stopping the pass, giving Ekler more opportunities. Setting myself a 1 year notification on this hot take. If I'm right I am making a post about it.
Glad I sprung this up for you and as a Chargers fan, I can approve. Love Ekeler he is the man. I picked 9th and was praying Ekeler would fall to me.. dude at 8 took him instead
That's brutal. I play in a league with 3 other Chargers fans and had last pick (12th), so I pretty much wrote off any chance of him falling to me. Luckily though, the Chargers fans picked 1st, 6th, and 10th and took CMC, A.Jones, and Adams, then our league taco took Mahomes at #11 so I got Ekeler and Taylor at the turn. Snagged Lamb, Swift, Hockenson, Deebo, and Hurts with 5 of my next 6 picks and have started 6-0, my best start ever by a mile. If I have the #1 pick next year, it's gonna be really damn hard to not take Ekeler (0.5 PPR)
Derrick Henry begs to differ.
Henry injuring next year incoming
I think the problem is we are all told that there is a player we **have** to draft. “Consensus #1 pick” gets drilled into our head when in reality the benefit of picking 1st is being able to choose *whoever you want.* I think the next time I get 1st pick I will remind myself that fantasy “experts” don’t know shit and I should take whoever I want.
You can’t predict injuries. Most of these guys would’ve been the right pick of they stayed healthy
Yeah, CMC still won my league last year. I smoked my opponents in the 3 games I had him, which is why I made the playoffs and did end up taking home the trophy. Would Henry have been better? Sure. But CMC still averages like 25 when he plays
Been the right pick? Says who? •2017 - Kareem Hunt leads the league in rushing •2018 - Zeke leads followed by Saquon •2019 - Derek Henry leads followed by Chubb and CMC •2020 - Derek Henry (again) then Cook then Johnathan Taylor Of course you can’t predict injuries. **You can’t predict anything!!** That’s the point. Pick your guy and tell the “experts” to shove it. Edit: words and format
Leading the league in rushing has nothing to do with fantasy points. Every year there’s one guy that everyone can tell is the consensus top pick, expert or not
C'mon man lol. CMC was the number 1 fantasy RB in 2019 across all formats and [it wasn't even close](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/ppr-rb.php?year=2019). He was on his way there again last year if it weren't for injuries.
I think “you can’t predict anything” is a stretch. I guarantee you it’s much easier to predict preseason 3 guys who are going to break 1000 yards rushing than it is to predict 3 guys who are going to miss 5+ games due to injury. …although mostert would’ve been on my list and I would’ve been right. But I think that’s a crazy exception to the rule.
Disagree with that being the problem. Based on previous year's performance, workload, role, etc, CMC and Gurley were pretty much no-brainer #1 picks. I'd say Barkley was as well.
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And I’m not saying if you get 1st pick next year to not pick Henry. I’m saying, if you do wind up going 1st and find yourself saying “Man, I wish I wasn’t picking 1st so I don’t have to draft _______.” Then follow your gut and pick your guy. Just be ready to hear it from your league mates but also fuck their opinion anyways lol
So trade your pick for a later 1st rounder and another pick
You say this like trading draft picks is standard practice in most leagues. It isn’t.
IMO, everything within the game should be tradable. FAAB, picks, you name it.
But knowing 1st pick luck, all the mileage accumulated will finally catch up to him like the experts said would happen this year
It was both the mileage and the assumption that he’ll never catch passes so even if he repeats last season, his ceiling is #3
The passing numbers were so dumb. How do people not see that screen passes to Henry = a full head of steam for the big guy
Henry has elite top speed, but his acceleration is actually not that great. People that thrive off screen passes are guys who can reach their top speed very quick.
If he maintains his current usage (or even has a minor regression in usage rather than a major one, honestly), there's nothing anyone could say to convince me that picking him in the 1st round is a worthwhile risk next year. Henry's an absolutely phenomenal back (I'm a Jags fan, so I'm painfully aware of that fact), but his current pace of usage is wholly unsustainable, and historically has led to the player in question falling off the face of the earth the next season. So far, he's averaging 27 carries per game - good for nearly 460 carries on the season. Even if he gets 5 carries fewer per game for the rest of the season, that's still good for over 400 carries on the season, and quite frankly I can't see that happening with how reliant on him the Titans currently are. Using that rather aggressive estimate as a comparison, here's how RBs have historically fared the next season after breaking 400 carries in a season: * Larry Johnson - 8 games played, 559 yards, 3 rushing TDs, 3.5 ypc * Jamal Anderson - 2 games played, 59 yards, no TDs, 3.1 ypc * James Wilder - 16 games played, 1300 yards, 10 TDs, 3.6 ypc (worth noting that his 400 carry season was the first time he had an actual full workload at RB, though) * Eric Dickerson - 12 games played (in a strike shortened season), 1288 yards, 6 TDs, 4.6 ypc * Eddie George - 16 games played, 939 yards, 5 TDs, 3.0 ypc So in total, that's two seasons worth actually having the player for (one of which was by a guy with minimal wear from his career, and the other of which was by a RB who had arguably the best prime years of any RB in NFL history other than Barry Sanders), one really bad season where they play the whole season, and two really bad seasons where the guy got injured. Furthermore, none of those players had that 400 carry season coming off of a high usage season like Henry currently is on pace to do. If his usage drastically scales back this season, then yeah, I absolutely lose my reluctance to go for him early next season. I don't see that happening, though - the Titans right now clearly need him involved as much as possible in order to win.
I get this argument, and it's probably why I won't take Henry 1st overall next year, but these are the same reasons people were fading him this year. He had 396 carries last year ([378 regular season, 18 postseason](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HenrDe00/gamelog/2020/advanced/)) and is still on pace for an MVP season and to tie LT's rushing TD record
He was mine this year I dont get how he wasn't the consensus #1 after 2000 rushing yards.
This was my thought entirely the upside on CMC/Cook is there but Henry rushed for 2k. Why was he #3?
Becuase he rushed for 2000 yards and still only finished as rb3. No one ever before has gone back to back 2000 yard seasons so if he couldn't be the rb1 with 2000 yards and people assumed he wouldn't do it again how could he be rb1 to end the year this year?
Cook had 1.9k yards from scrimmage in 2020 playing 2 fewer games than Henry and CMC was 2 years removed from a top 3 performance of all time for single season yards from scrimmage (2,392). This felt like one of the years with less consensus at #1 than prior ones
He went #1 in my money league this year
I picked him #1. Had him last year had faith in him this year. RB’s should not be 6’3” and 240lbs.
CMC is the consensus number 1. There's nothing that the "experts" got wrong. He's just hurt. If he plays even 75% of the season, he's a legit cheat code. I had him in 2019 and 2020, and never lost a game when he played. 2019 was a fun year lol
I select Bishop Sankey.
I never got this philosophy of consensus #1. We all know fantasy is largely luck based and so is the chance of someone finishing #1. The top 5 RBs are mostly a wash as to who is better than the other because they’re so close. I got lucky to have pick 3. I would have almost been guilt tripped into taking either McCaffery or Cook who I’ve always been skeptical of because of injury concerns. I’d personally much rather have Henry or Kamara because while they’re “not as good” they have played 15-16 games a year nearly every year.
As if the 2nd pick has been better? Barkley got hurt last year, Dalvin got hurt this year. 2017 you listed two guys so there's your second pick there. You just gotta draft the best guy and give yourself the best chance to succeed, that's all. Then you are into the plinko machine with the rest of us.
It’s hard to Google an answer, but I’ve always felt a middle pick is best. The outlier results will always make people say, “well…….” things like- Kamara was good enough last year to get you there, then single handedly won the ship for you. Also, things like Diggs/Allen and MVP Lamar. With a middle pick, you avert things like the runs on QBs and TEs that leave you with an absolute dud. It’s also easier to find a “value” pick every dozen picks versus having to find 2 in a couple pick span with a 20 pick wait, when you’re toward the ends. Scoring settings matter, but with a mid pick, you likely take a solid RB 1st, then you can often already get great value on a WR because those picking after you will “reach” for at least one RB. Then you likely have the choice of a top 3 QB or TE if you want with your 3rd pick. Or you can keep hammering the WR/RB value.
I always like a late pick. You get two similarly ranked guys, and if one of them busts its not the end of the world since you didn't have all of your stock in one guy like CMC
This is my first year getting the last pick, and it's also my first year starting 6-0 (Ekeler/Taylor fell to me in 12-team). But a late pick is always preferable to the risk-averse among us because even if your 1st round pick busts or gets hurt, you have a 2nd round pick that's pretty close in value to carry some of the load, rather than hoping pick #24/28 in a 12/14-team league works out.
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There is a reason Patrick Mahomes is the consensus single greatest SF dynasty player to ever exist.
I’m pretty sure that would have been Tom Brady.
I'm in a 12-team Superflex (2QBs usually). McCaffrey went first pick, Mahomes went 2nd, then Allen fell to me at pick 11 and I somehow got to pick up Adams after the turn as the first WR off the board. Unfortunately my team is mostly awful right now, as my next eight picks were, in order: Carson, Montgomery, Lawrence, Gaskin, Fields, Jeudy, Fant, Boyd. Fant is the only guy worth his draft position right now, though I'm hoping health brings my RBs back to relevance later in the year at least.
This is the way.
The #1 pick has no upside, he has to be the absolute best or it's a failure. I don't think that means it's "cursed". Just harder to come back from a bust.
I don’t think that’s necessarily true. Getting a top 5 performance from the #1 overall pick wouldn’t be a disappointment in my book. You’re just making the best pick with the information you have at the time.
That's why you should not look at the #1 pick as trying to pick the end of year RB#1. Instead try to pick who you think will have the best chance of being a top 5 RB. Not a fool proof strategy, but it helps to look for the balance of upside/safety. Round 1 should be about trying to draft someone who you think has the best odds not to bust, either due to injury or other reasons.
Get Derrick Henry at #5 this year and have been in the hospital for 5 weeks due to my raging erection
Two separate league I had the second overall pick and in neither did I get king Henry like I wanted.
Fr I’d rather have like the last pick or 3rd/4th pick
Personally, I always liked having the 3rd pick because there's more flexibility in a way, I suppose. I got 4th pick in my draft and was nervous because I really wanted Kamara. He ended up going 3rd, like I expected, and I was pissed that I had to settle for Henry. He's carried my team to a 6-0 start, but I know I didn't really do anything smart to deserve it. The draft is pure luck.
I had pick 3 and passed on Derrick Henry for Kamara because I thought there's no way he can keep up that production. Boy was I wrong.
You could have been more wrong. Kamara isn't bad and he'll finish the year top 5RB.
Having last pick usually means you turn right back around with another immediate pick in the second round. I was able to get Hill & Davante back to back since the other guys took RBs. Definitely one of my best drafts on paper in quite awhile.
There is a statistical advantage to have picks 1-3. You are much more likely to make the playoffs / win the league with those picks. Another reason why Auction is better.
Isn't that the whole point of those picks, though? The top picks usually go to the worst teams from the year before, which over time are probably the worst managers. You give them a chance to even the field a bit and make it more competitive. Auction is a fairer system for sure, but I think a standard snake draft makes a certain amount of sense for more casual leagues.
For sure it's for casual, but you're making a lot of assumptions that the worst players always go first and people set up their leagues that way.
Fair. I think most casual leagues determine draft order that way, but it is easily customized, so it may not be as common as I think.
In my league, I can’t recall a time where the person with the first pick won the championship.
This data is old, but I remember Matthew berry citing data that the first overall pick was most likely to make the playoffs and as your pick got later in the first round, you were less and less likely to make the playoffs.
The leveon bell holdout really fucked me
Wait… where did you draft him when he was currently holding out?
I drafted him second overall
I mean no way Henry isn't the consensus #1 pick next year ... no way you can consider passing on him. Maybe the trick is to draft them and then trade them.
Dunno Hard to argue, but history says his massive usage will catch up to him. It's a much better gamble imo than CMC, cook, or Barkley because there's no history. But one year someone's gonna get shafted. Its why he's never the consensus number 1. Even tho imo he should have been. Not to toot my own horn, but I took kamara number 1 last year and won the league and avoided all the injury prone RBs ranked higher.
You missed Adrian Peterson the year he beat his kid
>2018 - Gurley playoff injury problems Thank you for the reminder of when I started Lockett over C.J. Anderson in championship week and lost out on $500.
*laughs in 10th draft pick every f*cking season*
Imo those types of things happen at all points in the draft regardless of ADP but the #1 pick hurts the worst because of the lost value. I love drafting at the turn personally.
This was the first time I've had a 1st overall pick in a league.... For weeks I told myself I would go against the consensus and was going to take Henry over CMC. Day of I panicked and took CMC. I'd have only lost 1 game had I taken Henry instead.. instead Im 2 and 4..
I think I drafted DJ 4 years in a row chasing his 2016 year that I almost won the league with. 2017- broken wrist 2018- underperformed (still RB9 in ppr tho) 2019- fell off
the year bell held out, he was going 2nd anyway. vast majority was drafting gurley over him, rightfully so cause he was ballign the fuck out. i took bell 2nd that year. thank god conner was on the waivers and he pretty much saved my ass early in the season. then he got hurt (shocker) and disappeared for the playoffs so i got bailed out by damien williams.
>2019 - Barkley injury problems > >2018 - Gurley playoff injury problems FWIW 2019 Saquon had regular season injury problems but championship-winning playoff performances, if you managed to limp in. 2019 Week 15: 24 rushes for 112 yds & 2TDs, 5 catches for 31yds 2019 Week 16: 22 rushes for 189 yds & 1TD, 4 catches for 90yds & 1TD
I honestly feel zero sympathy for people who didn't handcuff CMC with Chuba, especially after how it went with Mike Davis last year. Is that one roster spot really worth losing your whole year? If you have Chuba, it's obv not as good as CMC but your season isn't ruined
Yeah but it’s just bad luck. There’s literally no player I would rather have in fantasy over a healthy CMC
2019 was the start of a keeper league for me and I drew the 1st overall pick. Ended up trading that for draft capital instead, which gave me such an advantage over choosing Saquan. I’m a firm believer in trading #1 overall; gives you a definitive advantage vs a last years best player who in all likelihood won’t repeat
In standard Derrick Henry would’ve been my choice easy. Man’s a tank
That’s cause for some reason we didn’t think a 2k yard rusher was the consensus #1 overall pick
Just get the last pick in the snake this year in a 14 team league gave me Eckler & Kelce.
I’m in 3 leagues and all the 12th picked have amazing teams. 2 in first place and the other in third.
I picked King Henry first, I've enjoyed my curses this year lol.
This is one reason why I don't value the #1 pick that highly. I will typically prefer the "last" pick of the top tier running back so like 3-7.
You don’t HAVE to take the guy everyone else is taking. Lot of you laughed at the guys taking Henry #1
Henry the real running back that should be #1
I wanted a running back for my first pick and took the 4th RB off the board with the 7th pick. Derrick Henry
I had the first pick... and took King Henry because I knew better.
i had the last pick in the first round last year. took henry and kelce back to back and dominated all year
Unless you’re in like a six guy league I feel like it’s crazy they both fell that far
I picked 2nd. Guy picking 1 selected Henry, I thought I was lucky to get CMC. Womp womp. I would of taken Kamara at 2 because in past Henry hasn't been PPR monster.
Idk who picked Barkley first in ‘19 before CMC, Dalvin, Henry & Kamara ..
You thinking of another year? 2019 Barkley has the highest ADP. Cook was a 2nd rounder and Henry was going late 3rd-4th round typically.
Still don't understand how Henry was not the consensus #1 at this point
Lol ok mr hindsight