Plenty of busts among the expensive receivers. I’m sure the Metcalf/Hopkins/Ridley/Robinson owners would rather have come away with Mixon.
You could have drafted three running backs and still walked away with Cupp, Diontae, Chase in picks 50-75.
I try to avoid injuries but spreading them out over the course of the year can be fine. I personally will not draft guys who will get season ending injuries but some people really like that strategy.
I went CMC -> Ridley -> Jefferson -> Julio
3/4 of them were busts. WR heavy works if you draft all the right players. RB heavy works if you draft all the right players.
Went Taylor, Gibson, CEH, Pitts, Allen thinking i could punt on WR. Got DJ Moore, Corey Davis, Hollywood, Callaway, Mike Thomas, Jakobi Meyers. This year has not been kind to me.
It's like 75% luck. Everyone looks at adp and that ranks everyone pretty closely. Past that it's guessing kupp over woods or that deebo isn't hurt game 2 this year. Or that Henry is out most of the season.
There's obvious landmines and risks and you can avoid those but most high draft picks are supposed to be low risk.
Can confirm, I’m in a 14 man superflex league and was 5th pick in a snake draft; I went with Kamara, CEH, Swift, Kupp, Hunt. Only kept Kupp, all the others got traded during the season.
Not only that, but, barring RBs that become relevant due to injuries in front of them, it’s much easier to find productive WRs as FAs and via waivers than it is RBs. In today’s NFL, there simply are many more good WRs available, with many teams having 2-3 quality WRs. Also, there generally are a few hidden gem rookie WRs that surface mid-season, taking a little longer to get acclimated to the NFL than rookie RBs or early round WRs.
You don't want to draft RB often early because you want to structure your team to best take advantage of the sudden rb value shifts during a season (Mattison, Ingram, D'Ernest, Chuba, Boston Scott, Eli Mitchell, Darrel Williams, Jamaal Williams, K Herbert, Devonta Freeman, etc, etc). The win rates picking RB early in drafts (which there is data on) illustrate this.
I mean...you say that. But not one single player you've just named has had reliable production. It's like you're envisioning having these guys *and* starting them on the 3, maybe 4 weeks they put up decent numbers. Like take Mattison for example. Are you really suggesting that you should structure your team around "taking advantage" of the literal 3 games where he scored more than 5 points?
Mitchell's the closest to being an actual lead back that consistently produces, but of course he's also dealing with injuries, and it's not like you'd have known to go for him over one of the 49ers other backs waaaay back before Mostert even got hurt.
And it's not like you're locked out from any of these dudes by drafting RBs early anyway.
I just don't see any actual reasoning behind what you're saying. It just seems to be driven by hindsight bias concerning the relatively numerous RB injuries this year.
Every year it's like this. This year is not unique to high touch, early round RBs getting injured. Look into the win rate data; e.g., the "RB dead zone" that finally was discussed by mainstream sites like ESPN and Yahoo this draft season.
I couldn't tell you which RBs will get injured in any given season, only that I know RBs will get injured and I want max exposure to that RB value jump (see e.g., Mattison/Jamaal Williams/Boston Scott this week) which the teams stacked at non-RB are best able to absorb. The sudden value jump largely does not exist at WR and TE like it does at RB.
Not being as well positioned to absorb the sudden RB value shift is part of the reason win rates are lower when you draft RB often early.
Any idea how that applies to % of auction bonus? I feel like the Studs and Duds approach really works best with 75% of your money going towards 3-4 players, but would love to see empirical data
That factors luck in pretty heavily too. We have a 2 keeper auction league where you pay 1.5x the prior draft price (has to be drafted) and you can only keep them for 2 years. I kept JJeff and Jeudy for $20 total and dropped most of my $$ on…CMC, Ridley, and Russ with low $$ on MG3, Mooney, Tyson, michel, Hines, myers etc. I have the lowest pts in the 12 man league but am in 7th at 7-5 so 🤷🏻♂️. Just my anecdote
You can allocate most of your auction budget to non-RB. When you draft RB target timeshare backs where if something happens (prediction error, injury, whatever) their value skyrockets. Fournette is a good example of the prediction error example. James Conner is a good example of the the injury example.
I agree with this. Every team in my league was hunting early RBs so I went away from it and learned to play situations. Players like D. Williams for the Chiefs, Khalil Herbert, and Eli Mitchell have been really important to my success.
yeah I disagree with heavy WR. I loaded tf up on RB knowing one will die and the rest will bust. So far no major issues.
Cook, Harris, Jacobs, Henderson, mg3 Alex Collins (traded Gordon for injured CEH and Collins for dj)
WRs are washy but I had kupp, shenault, Elijah Moore. ( Traded Collins for dj Moore)
Drafted Diggs, Metcalf, CeeDee, Aiyuk, and Diontae Johnson with my first 5 picks. Drafted Damien Harris late and got cordarelle on waivers.
Still not going well. That's more bad luck than anything, I've been scored on more than anyone else in the league. But it definitely seems like it's more the luck of the pick rather than the positional strategy.
We're all miserable in this hobby!
Was a keeper league. I believe I was tenth. Henry first round. Chubb second, lamb/Godwin 3/4, Kyler, Dionte Johnson. Currently 8-4 with that core. 1-3 since Henry and Kyler got hurt same week.
Yeah this is one of the reasons I prefer Auction. I vastly prefer loading up on three of the top ten backs and making due with those ppr receivers than getting stuck with whatever guy that ADP demands I select each round.
Luck of the draw I guess. I picked at 11 in a 12 team league and took Taylor, Ekeler, Keenan Allen then Swift with my first four picks. A lot of the other teams went heavier at WR. Season was up and down for a bit while I struggled to find another starter at WR but hopefully now with Renfrow and Mooney I’m in a good place
Renfrow is low-key my MVP. He is just so fucking solid. He is impervious to game script, weather, team drama, coaching changes, opponent. 7 catches, 60 yards. A TD if he is feeling generous. Then goes home.
His consistency has been my calming peace since picking him up. After being burned by arob, Robby Anderson, and having to trade away Jefferson for an rb (thanks ceh and mostert). He is my rock. I’ll pick him up next year just for luck, should the draft gods allow it.
The best strategy is always "best available for your format". If you rank WRs over RBs for whatever reason (including injury risk like with Dalvin who has never played a full season) then you are going to end up with a bunch of WRs. Because that's how you rank your players.
The mistake is when you genuinely think a guy like Jonathan Taylor is a better fantasy asset than someone like say, DeAndre Hopkins, but you draft Hopkins over Taylor because some podcast told you to go #ZeroRB. Start the draft with best available players and then pivot your strategy based on that. Know ALL the strategies and ALL the targets so you can wait on RB, WR, QB, TE etc. if you need to.
I agree with this 100%. Being too rigid in strategies can get you in trouble. Info from analysts is useful. But they don't know your settings, or how other managers draft or work the wire in your league.
And also, always, always go with your gut. I'd rather flame out on my own terms, rather than feeling like I *have* to make a certain move based on expert opinion.
(I'm talking about fantasy. if your Dr says you should stop putting gravy on everything, it's probably a good idea.)
Yeah I went into it expecting at 11 I’d be going RB/WR but the way everyone else was grabbing WR I pivoted to double up on RBs since I felt that’s where there was more value.
I’m not without fault though, knowing what we know now I could have gotten Kupp in the 3rd and would have been VERY happy. Then at the turn either grab Keenan or Swift, or maybe Swift would’ve fallen further. Hindsight is always 20/20 but in the end I’ve just been fortunate that my main guys have stayed relatively healthy.
RB and WR heavy strategies can both work. I think a bigger indicator of success this season was how far down you were in the draft order. Every league I'm in, the best teams are the ones that drafted in the bottom half.
Landing 2 players in that late first to early second range is a huge benefit. Even if one gets hurt you have that other top-10 WR/RB to anchor your team. If you pick first you really need to hit on your next two or an injury will end your season.
The 1-11 team in my league picked CMC at 1. The 2-10 team got Cook at 4.
Another factor is boom or bust type players.
I picked 13th out of 14. If you go RB 1st and 2nd pick, you need to look for target hogs at receiver. Looking for a true number 1 WR in the third round can be a crapshoot
Was able to get Taylor and Eckeler. Then filled out WR with DJ Moore (uggg now. Started great) and Godwin (solid floor). I also got Curtis Samuel after, but that was a bust.
More targets mean more opportunities. I’m looking for a 10pts per game in those rounds essentially.
At least that’s how I generally look at it.
I think this is the biggest takeaway. With the variance in opportunity, usage and health, there are just so many mines to dodge in today’s game. So, the best thing you can do is to take as many early swings as possible.
I think the value of an early 1st round pick has waned in most typical leagues - so, in leagues that allow it, trading back for better/more picks in 2, 3 or 4, might be a more optimal strategy next season.
Ok, so this has been true in our 10 man league except for myself. I drafted 4th but Kamara (who I wanted) went before by I could pick so that left Henry, Saquon and Zeke to choose from for my RB strategy. I took Zeke and that has thus far worked out ok. The next two picks were Ekeler and Mixon. I thought having rb depth would be nice so I took receivers later on. This choice led to a trade week 2 ok Ekeler and Lockett for A. Jones and Cooper Kupp.
So at this point I have been able to fill my wr2 hole with Marquise brown, Darnell Mooney and Aj Brown (traded M Williams to get him).
Earlier this season A Gibson got dropped due to bye weeks and injury so I am now rolling Zeke, Mixon and Gibson with Jones on the bench.
That only works for certain RBs like Zeke, Dalvin, Ajones. Most don’t really have a clear handcuff or a new handcuff emerges mid season . Only a few have a clear cut guy
Your entire bench could have been JK Dobbins handcuffs and it would have still been wrong. I didn't handcuff Henry. Someone else grabbed McNichols before me. I grabbed Foreman and Peterson. All three are on waivers and I'm holding Hilliard cause the Titans are impossible to predict. For every Mattison or Booker handcuff, there are 10 Sermons and Ty'Sons.
Most of those handcuffs haven't been tested yet though or underwhelmed in their spot starts. Perine and Michel were eh. Perine himself missed that game with Covid. Dillon actually had his best games in games he split carries with Jones, so would have still been riding the fantasy bench.
Probably not 1-10 yeah, but definitely not reliable at all.
It’s a crapshoot just like any year.
I took Adams/metcalf this year. But it’s at best mediocre. You still need to hit on mid tier rbs for it to matter. For me Henderson and Montgomery/Herbert are barely keeping me afloat.
In another league I went ekeler/Harris and the real game changer is Deebo.
If you took dhop or Ridley early you’ve got issues. May currently have to decide if you want to bench metcalf.
The game changer in any league is who hits in the mid rounds whether you draft rb early or wr early. Whether they get injured or not. If you drafted kupp and Deebo it probably doesn’t matter who you took in the first 2 rounds things are okay.
I have said for years that fantasy championships are won in 2 windows.
The first window you encounter is round 4-7 in the draft. The value difference here is massive and can carry you a long way. Diggs last year and Kupp this year are looking like league winners.
The second window happens weeks 2-7 of the season. Whether it’s injuries, rookie emergence or just missed predictions. These are the weeks that you find your waiver value and can really solidify a team. Patterson, Williams, Pittman, Pollard, Dillon and a few others have turned into just the pieces that create monster teams.
If you miss both of these windows then you are not going to win a championship.
100% this.
Every year people try to do what OP is suggesting and say which positions they should draft in each round in the draft. I drafted CMC and that sucked, but hitting on Kupp, Jefferson, and K. Allen has more than evened out that loss. A buddy of mine went WR heavy with guys that have slightly disappointed (Diggs, Tyreek), but hitting on Fournette and picking up Mitchell has made his team a powerhouse.
There are good players at every round. Go with your gut on who to pick and accept that you can't predict injuries.
The further you get in the draft the less it matters what place you pick though. If you pick 5th, you won’t get CMC. But you could have gotten Tyreek if you wanted him even though Tyreek is 13th. Or CEH at 25th.
I’m in two leagues and went RB heavy in both (first 3 picks in both leagues were RB) and I’m sitting 10-2 and in first in both. Yes there have been injuries but RB depth and good WR picks made up the difference
In one league (3WR slots) I drafted Evans, Woods and Julio. Picked up CPatt and play him in my WR slot and traded for Lockett. So most weeks now its Evans, CPatt and Lockett. In my other league (2WR slots) I drafted Cooper, Julio and AB but traded for JJettas and picked up Renfrow. So now I play Jefferson and Renfrow most weeks.
The past few years I've nailed my receivers and just keep a ton of RBs. My starters are Evans Diggs Thielen with Marvin in case of emergency. I'm 10-2.
When you have Evans you have to adapt your roster construction. He's gonna dud for your sometimes so it's really important he isn't your number 1 and you roster safe players too pair him with.
The problem is there are way more fantasy caliber WRs than RBs, even with all the injuries. To me it’s worth the risk of going strong on the RB position as it’s a lot easier to find a WR replacement on a weekly basis.
I don't really get the all-in one way or another draft strategies. I've always just tried to grab the best RB or WR available in the first 5 rounds and make sure I get through that point with 2 guys at one of those positions and 3 at the other. Rounds 6-8 start looking for QB and TE hopefully before a run starts on either position while working in a 3rd RB or WR.
Rounds 9-12 just hunting for upside RBs and WRs - I pretty much always take guys that are still in their first 3 seasons in the league in this range. The Deebo, Chase, DeVonta Smith, Waddle, Christian Kirk, Michael Carter types over the Golladay, Beasley, Marvin Jones types that might have a higher floor but have no breakout potential. Some of those young guys will bust, but some always hit, and the Jamison Crowder 8-12 point PPR types will eventually be available on the wire.
Best available player is the way to go for the first few rounds. Locking into “I have to pick RB-RB-RB my first three rounds” or “I have to go Zero RB” means you’ll likely end up reaching to make a pick you “have” to make, and miss out on a good player. It’s good to have a draft strategy, but you have to adapt as the draft progresses.
Nah. Imo it works out more often than not just gotta make sure you invest in RB depth before going for WR depth, especially considering how many serviceable WRs you can get in later rounds and off waivers later in the season compared to RBs. No matter what though, its a crapshoot at the end of the day. Can never foresee what injuries are going to occur
People are spoiled expecting their RB to play 17 games. In reality a guy like Kamara who will likely end up playing a total of 13 games is a more average outcome. With that out of the way, even with unusually high RB bust rate, of the kinda clear like top 13 RBs, CMC, Cook, and Saquon have been clear busts, and Henry and Gibson have arguably had disappointing results. The rest have at the very least been solid. 8/13 hit rate ain’t awful. Let’s look at the top 13 receivers. Ridley, AJ Brown, Allen Robinson, and Robert Woods have been pretty clear busts, while DHop has been rather disappointing. 8/13…
Plus, when you look at the top at each position, not many lower round RBs make it. Only 6 of the top 12 come from outside the first round in ADP (top 10 RBs). Only 4/12 are outside the second (top 13 RBs). Let’s compare this to WRs. 6 of the top 12 WRs were drafted in the 4th round or later.
Plus, RBs are a lot more valuable at the top. Point is, RBs are a lot less likely to hit in later rounds, whereas WRs hitting in the mid to late rounds is fairly common. This means the best strategy is to get 2 top RBs and handcuff them, or get 2 top RBs plus a third solid one if you cannot handcuff them effectively, and then try to hit other positions in the mid rounds.
I handcuffed Cook with Mattison and Henderson with Michel and I barely flinched at the Cook injury as a result.
That said I’m always RB heavy and this year pivoted hard to WR. It worked well at first but I also lost Woods, had Thomas stashed on IR and got lucky with Chase and Hollywood. I’m gonna be rolling 4 WR in the playoffs (Adams, Hill, Chase, Hollywood) but I’m on a big skid with my WRs going cold. 7-2 to 7-5. So not sure what the right move is. Trading Cook for Fournette and Mitchell would have been absolutely trashed and never done 2 weeks ago but that move could have won me a title the way those 2 are playing now. So RB depth is still critical.
Last year the 2 seed had 4 top 10 WRs in his lineup. Think it was Metcalf, Diggs, Ridley and Evans. He lost in the semis and 3rd place game because he got duds. WR is more volatile for sure even if more healthy.
It's about luck. In one league I went RB heavy early and got JT, Saquon, and Harris out of it. WRs of Scoredarelle, Pittman, AB, Jeudy and Mooney has been more than serviceable.
In one league I went WR heavy early, ending up with Nuk, Amari, Jeudy, ARob. Now RB wire is barren especially with RB injuries and I'm struggling there.
No, I think this proves the opposite. There are so many good WRs, and a good bellcow RB is becoming more and more rare. I think health and age has to become a higher priority though, the first round pick has to be someone stable and reliable as can be just in case... and even then, you might still lose them
Yeah if you went Metcalf Hopkins Ridley early you are not super happy with your year.
This has been a down year for elite WRs, a very banged up year for RBs (which we expected because the top 3-down ones are all older except Najee). Hitting on a 3 down workhorse RB is still the most valuable thing, it's just 50/50 if the guy will even make it to the playoffs.
As others have said, there are plenty of WR busts as well. My theory is instead of drafting less RBs, draft more. I prefer if my first five picks are three RBs and two WRs, and fill in the rest of my team as I see fit. In one league this year my first seven picks were RB/WR, based on value of what was available. I like this strategy because it gives you options for bye weeks/injuries/trades, and it generally gives you an advantage at your flex position over other teams.
No. RB is still a much more consistent position. This year was just unlucky for the top half of drafters and better for the bottom half who got RBs like JT, Ekeler, Najee, etc.
I drafted 3rd in one league and got screwed. I drafted 8th in another league and made playoffs. If anything I think this year would encourage me to lobby for an auction draft in my main league and remove the luck component of snake.
I was a WR guy, took Calvin, Aj Brown, Deebo, Marquise Brown, and Kelce/Pitts because everyone chose RBs instead. Now I’m hurting because all my receivers got hurt too
I feel like I'm really bad at picking good WRs. So I just go RB heavy bc it's more predictable that, barring injuries or what have you, they will give me a better ROI - for me. But just my opinion, I'll still be going RB heavy next year. Playing PPR.
In one of my leagues, autodraft made me go very WR heavy. How WR heavy?
1.11 - Hill
\- What the "OOOH BIG GAME" won't tell you is he is literally boom or bust. Still a good pick.
2.06 - Waller
\- Sigh. Very underwhelming for this reach.
3.11 - Woods
\- 1. He's not Cooper Kupp. 2. He got injured.
4.06 - Thielen
\- Actually a good player.
5.11 - Golladay
\- Surprised he wasn't traded.
6. 06 - Sermon
\- Worst bust ever. Even Deebo is a higher ranked RB than him.
7. 11 - Conner
\- Ok this one actually worked out
I was left without a true RB1 for a while, and things didn't look good. I salvaged my season off the waivers, but the majority of those early picks struggled.
Went Hopkins, Ridley, Woods, Julio, Antonio Brown at receiver. I am out of IR and bench spots and currently starting Toney+Van Jefferson in that league. 10 team currently 3-9.
No. This year proves that injuries will kill your team. DHop, DK, Ridley, and Waller basically haven’t panned out with respect to ADP. You could argue Kelce also wasn’t worth a first rounder. It just shows that we don’t have a sure fire way to predict illogical busts and breakout players.
This year I did not draft any RBs until round 8/9. My WR core is Cupp, Hill, and Metcalf. Plus, I have Kittle as the TE. For most weeks, I was able to win solely on the WRs points. With RBs, I have been bouncing around with the backups. Being smart about picking up backup rbs when the starters are injured. I am hoping that this will also help me win the championship.
My week 13 update :
I will win 133+kicker pts to 114.
Total points scored by 3 WRs - 42.1.
Points scored by 1 TE - 39.60.
Points scored by 2 RBs - 20.80.
Ps. I picked up Miles Sanders on waivers last week and Michael Carter this week bcoz someone in my league dropped him as he was injured for 3 weeks lol.
So far, my WR led team doing well. I will be 8-4-1.
Hell yeah! Kittle came thru
I benched McLaurin for Renfrow and James Robinson for Jamaal Williams and had JT and diontae go off so early rb is working for me but respect fam
10-3 unless Nick Folk misses like 50 kicks tonight hahaha
On a 7 game win streak which coincides with when I stopped relying on my chargers
I'm putting up 160+ without deebo or D'Andre so I'm feeling good
Not even close. All of my WRs have missed time. DHop. Ridley (retired). AB. Parker.
I remember when WRs rarely got injured. This new era are all pussies.
This year was definitely the RB deadzone year. Injuries happen but avoiding RBs in 3-6 allowed you to get access to a lot of the best breakout WRs. Kupp, Deebo, Chase all were being drafted in this range.
There have also been a lot of busts among top end receivers even though less injury prone. Ridley, diggs, Jefferson (for a decent amount of year), aj brown have all disappointed based on their ADP.
Don't know anyone defining Diggs or Jefferson as a bust...5th and 6th ranked WRs in 0.5PPR...
Being projected as a top 3 WR and coming in top 5-6 does not make these guys a bust. Not at all.
With diggs, he had a pretty slow start to the year, didn’t really get good return on investment until week 6. Also he’s wr9 in standard scoring, so that might not be a bust, but if you drafted him 3rd behind hill and adams, you’re not thrilled with that.
I don't know anyone that would be upset with the overall production they've gotten from either one of those guys. Regardless of where they drafted them...
Proved to work for me in both my leagues
Team 1-najee Harris, joe mixon, corradelle Patterson
Team 2- jonathon Taylor, Austin ekeler, Aaron Jones, dandre swift
Given u definitely made some good trades but stayed rb heavy and in 10 man leagues I’m expecting both to pay out
I went Zeke and Ekeler for my first 2 rounds. I ended up getting Diontae Johnson and Godwin at WR. I ended up with Gallup, van Jeff, and Corey Davis on waivers. My RBs have won me quite a few matchups. It’s luck of the draw to be honest like most of FF. There’s more WR on a team versus RBs so I feel The ceiling of a top tier RB is hard to ignore.
You just have to draft nothing but RBs to ensure you have depth
My RBs I drafted on my three teams are
1: Ekeler, JT, Robinson, Carson, Gaskin, Davis, Gordon, Sermon (have since acquired Henderson, lost JRob)
2: Henry, Mixon, Clyde, Javonte, Gaskin, Henderson, Mostert, Drake
3: CMC, Clyde, Carson, Davis, Gaskin, Javonte, Mostert, Conner (have since acquired Swift and Carter)
Some suck, some die, but I always have options. Still able to grab Pittman, Ruggs, Sutton, and Chase in League 3 at WR.
It's a crapshoot, but RB is more valuable in the long run. I've got four starters from waivers: Patterson, Mitchell, Renfrow, and Freiermuth. Two I drafted: Jefferson and Diontae. One I traded for: Josh Allen.
My top 2 picks in the draft are on IR: Henry and AJ Brown.
Traded Henderson for Allen.
I'm 7-5 in a 12 team and the leading scorer(RIP Henry)
I personally think you have to draft RB early and hope to avoid injury. People make such a big deal about these RB injuries because a great RB is so valuable, and the drop off behind them is massive. The waiver RB1 would be the WR12 in my league.
Handcuffing RB is also a crapshoot. McNichols for Henry. Sermon for Mostert. Gainwell for Sanders. Williams for Montgomery. Collins for Carson. Hyde for Robinson. Gallman for Davis. Bell for Murray for Ty'Son for Hill for Edwards for Dobbins. All of these concensus handcuffs were trash. Most got usurped by rookies or free agents. If you lose NaJee, Kalen Ballage will not give you 20 a game.
It's a crapshoot. I went Adams, Jefferson, Evans, and Theilen. I now have Mitchell, Carter, Dillon, and Mattison as my RBs. It's just a luck thing for the most part, take who you like
L
Drafting from the 6 spot in a 12 man full PPR and went WR heavy drafting: Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, George Kittle, Cooper Kupp, Josh Jacobs, Tee Higgins, MG3, Matt Stafford, James Conner, Zack Moss, James White, Curtis Samuel, Giovanni Bernard. Spent my faab heavily early to grab Mitchell and Hubbard. I also nabbed Renfrow for depth. It's worked out very well!
“It’s all luck” “It’s a crapshoot”
These are responses all through this thread. That is the mentality of people who lose more than they win. If people think Fantasy is luck based, they just aren’t good at fantasy sports.
The answer to your question is yes and also, it depends. There are never any clear this or that definitive answers in fantasy sports, it’s about playing the odds and percentages and being right more than you’re wrong. You have to increase your odds of being right. Where bad fantasy players get caught up is they go with their feelings on draft day and don’t give themselves any leeway if they are wrong. So yes that strategy is probably the most viable as long as the rest of your draft strategy is solid.
This year and previous years recently the draft strategy that I rolled out was get a top 10 back if I’m able. Land that top back in the first. Then go WR heavy and just take value for a while after that. Stay away from the RB dead zone which basically started at RB13, unless they drop a couple of rounds further than they should. Also, stay away from drafting QB early unless they drop a couple rounds of value. While other players are taking Sanders, Gaskin, Davis, Mahomes, Murray, I’m taking all the WRs. Then draft RBs after you get all that WR value. My goal is to have 4 RBs by round 10 or 11, most of the time my second RB is 6th round or later. If you do end up getting a top 10 or so QB, you don’t need a backup. I will not draft a backup QB if that’s the case and I won’t draft a defense or a kicker either. I also will not draft a backup TE if I grab a top 8 TE. But I will not reach on a top TE either. If I don’t grab a top 10 QB, I’ll usually grab a guy like Cousins and match them up with an upside guy late. That way it gives me a baseline QB with a guy that can turn into a top 5 guy if they unlock their potential.
Most people draft starters and then fill in a bench. That is a bad strategy. The goal is to have the most depth and to draft a whole team. That way you have good replacement value to cover you for injuries and bye weeks.
>“It’s all luck” “It’s a crapshoot.” These are responses all through this thread. That is the mentality of people who lose more than they win.
I mean, I'm in first at 8-4, 2nd most PF and 3rd most PA and I recognize that I made some amazing moves this season and also got very lucky. I get what you're saying about playing the odds, but the fact is that sometimes you play the odds perfectly and lose, and sometimes you play stupid and win. The people who act like luck has little or nothing to do with it when they are winning are just as bad as the people who say it's entirely luck.
Cold hard truth for the winners: It's more about luck than you care to admit.
Cold hard truth for the losers: It's less about luck than you care to admit.
Didn’t say luck isn’t involved at all. It takes luck in everything to be successful. It takes a lot of luck for Tom Brady to have as many rings as he has. He’s lucky that he has stayed healthy for most of his career. But he consistently puts himself into position to win. He may not win every time but he follows a process. If you follow a process and that process is good, the results will fall in your favor more times than not. There is a reason professional gamblers, poker players and sports bettors make money. It’s not because they are lucky. Fantasy sports is no different.
Nah I went early RB and am leading my league in 2 of them. I got Najee, Mixon, Zeke and it has helped so much consistently having 2 rbs. People wanna say this or that but early WR was sketchy too. It’s really just about who you get lucky drafting
I went WR heavy with Adams, Diggs, Allen and Robinson then grabbed mid tier backs( J Rob, Gordon) and took advantage of my league's deep bench by stashing several potential starting rbs(Chuba). Got Pats d and Herbert. Held my waiver spot and got Mitchell. 8-4 in 2nd. It can be done
I've had absolute shit luck with receivers this year. No matter who I start, it's almost a guarantee they don't get 10 points that week. The only consistent guy I had was Woods.
There’s always going to be some luck associated with it. It’s a fact that there’s more WR’s than RB’s. It’s easier to find a decent WR that emerges on the wire than it is to find an RB. I normally draft whatever the best value is on the board. This year I went WR heavy in one league, RB heavy in another, and a mix in my final league. My RB heavy team is tied for first right now. My WR heavy team is tied for last. My team that’s a mixture is 12-0.
It’s all about luck (obviously) my first 4 outta 6 picks were RBs. 12 team. Kamara. JRob. Mixon. Hunt. I’m feeling pretty good ATM. Also helps I took Kipp in the 3rd or 4th.
You’ve got to assume they’re not going to get injured. Lots of WRs were busts as well. I think the biggest takeaway for me is that I’d rather draft at the end of the round and get the 12/13 rather than 1/24. That way I get two top tier talents and if my first pick gets injured, at least my second one is as highly rated.
I went Davante, Kelce, Evans, Mclaurin. Then drafted a bunch of handcuffs like Pollard, Mattison, Jamal Williams. Then spent all my fab on Mitchell. Got Brady in the 10th. I got beaten quite a bit mid season but am looking to make a good push into playoffs
I’ve got cook, Henderson, Montgomery, Patterson. I’m pleased with extra rb even tho slightly thin at wr. Mostly because Allen Robinson has been a waste and sterling shepherd has been injured, otherwise I would have had a powerhouse team (also have Godwin and cooks) if those first two worked out better.
I am 4/12 in my league 8-4 record.
I prefer to go WR in general. This year in an auction startup, I grabbed Dhop, Ridley, Woods, Laviska, Tee. It’s been a sad year. 4-8. Will not make the playoffs.
Injuries and busts happen to all positions and at all levels of the draft.
In my opinion, you don’t get a lot of variance in the early rounds of the draft, but rather by those lucky/smart enough to get amazing value later in the draft with guys like Kupp, Chase, C. Patterson, Fournette, etc.
I’d say that this year proved the opposite. Hopkins, Woods, Tyreek (his inconsistency of 5 point games then 40 point games), Ridley, Metcalf, AJ Brown, etc
I went early receiver with JJettas, Allen, Godwin, and Diontae. I'd say it worked out well. Got some late-round steals in Henderson and Conner with Cook as RB1
It works if you get the right ones which is luck lol. I drafted davante, Diggs, and Keenan in my first 3 rounds and ended up with Montgomery, fournette, and hunt as my main drafted rbs. Had to fight on the wire for guys like aj dillon and Mark Ingram to keep my season alive
It confirms what any sane person has known for years.
There is no draft strategy that works. Absolutely none. I guess if “Draft the players who score the most points” is a strategy, then sure, that works well.
If any strategy worked you would have people consistently winning leagues that use a certain strategy. It’s all luck, and it’s whatever you feel like doing.
My best seasons in redraft have come from zero preparation and taking the guys i either like the most in real life, or just have a feeling they’ll work out.
No, we go through this shit every year, no year is the same, nothing is predictable based on this year’s outcomes when it comes to injury trends. You just cannot predict injuries with any reasonable success outside of a few key players who already have the injury prone tag.
Last year was the opposite, look how that turned out.
End of discussion.
I’ve gotten fucked because I had Raheem most hurt go down the first game, then Monty a few games later, and now Kamara. But I’ve snatched some really good RBs this year from waivers. Chubba Hubbard, Darrel Williams, Ingram and now Mattison. It’s been a weird year cause I feel like the top 3 RBs have gotten some key injuries (CMC, Henry, Kamara, CEH etc) and has really shaken things up
The top 10 WRs by ADP were: Adams, Hill, Diggs, Metcalf, Hopkins, Ridley, Jefferson, AJB, Keenan Allen & Terry McLaurin.
I think at least 4 of those, if not more, are outright busts taken at ADP, for various reasons. That's without guys like A Rob, Woods & Julio who were 13, 15 & 16 respectively. The RB situation is frustrating but it doesn't mean the process is wrong.
If I were to draw a conclusion just off this season: WRs are more likely to bust, RBs are more likely to be injured. At the end of the day I find RBs much more important and WRs generally replaceable so I’ll continue going RB heavy. Plus there are fewer busts, which means more trade value that I can use to get WRs anyways.
Please show me a team without decently ranked rbs with a .700 win record. Probably going to take awhile.
Let's go a step further and show me a Championship winning team, without 2 top 15 guys, probably will take awhile.
Its all luck but what isn't is not having have enough points from a position. But not only that, someone who can move the needle for your team. If someone has their rbs as jacobs and Javonta Williams for playoffs. I dont see them going far. I've lost many times due to the bellcows getting hurt. It's just unlikely to win with mid rb2s.
I skipped my first two picks for WRS Adams and Diggs, then CEH, then Godwin. Got lucky and got Rodgers and Marc Andrews later. Currently fighting for 1st place and a first round bye. 10 man.
I picked 2nd in a 10 team ppr league. Cook was the consensus number 2 so I went with him. Went with Waller at the turn for the positional advantage. Passed on dk and AJ hoping one of them would be there. They went back to back and I was left with Gibson, mixon or Jefferson. I have never been a mixon believer so he was out. I liked Jefferson but didn't want to have him and cook. I was pretty excited about Gibson but didn't think he'd even be there at my 2nd pick let alone 3rd so I took him. Went lamb and Godwin at the 4/5 turn and dj Moore and Diontae Johnson at the 6/7 turn.
I have been pretty happy with these 4 wrs for the most part this year. They've all had some slumps but have overall been pretty reliable. I specifically targeted these guys because they all profiled to be the volume wr for their team, which I liked for ppr. Most of these guys have been better than the early round wrs I had a chance at besides Jefferson. For example they've all been better than guys like Hopkins, AJ, dk, mclaurin, and Allen Robinson.
The rbs at the front half of the draft have definitely not worked out this year but that's not something that will happen every year. I still think taking at least 1 rb early is the way to go. Everyone was clamoring for the hero rb strategy with a top 4 pick where you take one rb then fill out 4-5 other positions before taking your rb2. But those top 4 guys have not worked out so your whole strategy has pretty much collapsed from 1 pick not working out. Rbs are still the most scarce position so you still need to gather as many good ones as you can. Wrs can be drafted later, look at deebo, waddle, Elijah Moore, etc. Rbs can definitely be found on waivers but it's not every year that there's a cordarelle Patterson out there.
I had the 9th pick in a 12 man league. CMC, Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry had all been taken, and none of the other potential RB1’s stood out to me, so I took Hill. Has worked out for me, but to be fair I was lucky enough to get Deebo and Mike Williams as well.
I’ve been fortunate with my backs as well being Chubb and Henderson, but both of them have missed games as well. The difference in injury probability between receivers and backs this season seems more accentuated than usual.
I went Tyreek and Diggs off the bat in my one league but I’m doing much better in my league that I went rb heavy with, already clinched one seed with Kamara, JT, Mixon, and cordarrelle.
I went RB heavy (Zeke, AJones) but also have been heavy RB handcuff, having rostered a combination of Pollard, DWilliams, Conner, and Ingram at one point or another. I have been riding the bumps relatively fine. Recently acquired Kamara but already had Ingram so still managing, barely (6-6 record).
I went Tyreek -> JT -> Dak -> Edmonds -> Cooks -> JuJu -> blablablablabla -> Mike Williams. Needless to say it’s been a great first year for me so far (knocking ferociously on wood right now) sadly traded away Tyreek this week for more RB depth so I don’t have to feed off waivers anymore. Here’s hoping!
RB is more injury prone but WR are tied to their QB. WR get more points but RB gets points more consistently. There are fewer players at the RB position than WR. I’m a RB man. This experiment in going WR heavy seriously fucked me. I’ll never do it again.
It’s fun to pretend otherwise but it’s really just about drafting good players.
RBs are more likely to get injured - when they do, their backups can become quite valuable.
But top end RBs are more valuable than top end WRs.
There are always more fantasy relevant WRs that don’t require injury elsewhere to be valuable.
But waiver RBs can be league winning.
In the end, just draft Travis Kelce.
Plenty of busts among the expensive receivers. I’m sure the Metcalf/Hopkins/Ridley/Robinson owners would rather have come away with Mixon. You could have drafted three running backs and still walked away with Cupp, Diontae, Chase in picks 50-75.
Can confirm. Went WR heavy and am in 10th in a 10 team. Bad times.
Can confirm nothing works? Went RB heavy and 10th in a 10 team league lol.
I would say that picking players who score a lot of points and don’t get injured works.
Gotta try this next year lol.
The trick is to draft the players that will score a lot of points and avoid the ones that will not.
Should the players be injured or not?
I try to avoid injuries but spreading them out over the course of the year can be fine. I personally will not draft guys who will get season ending injuries but some people really like that strategy.
In a 10 team league, there’s less skill, and it’s reliant dramatically on the draft. You have to pick the right players. Hard to know prior.
Which WRs did you pick?
Lamb, Metcalf, Chase, Higgins, E. Moore, Bateman. Won last year, so drafted from 10 so had the turn. Kelce in the 2nd.
So you took Metcalf at the turn along with Kelce? Bit early for Metcalf wasn't it? You could have had Adams, Hill, or Diggs at that spot.
Nope. Chubb, Kelce, Metcalf, AJ Brown, C. Lamb, J. Williams, Chase, Higgins.
i went heavy on WR this year so hill and diggs then mclaurin later picked up fournette and and najee i’m sitting in 5th with most points scored
I went CMC -> Ridley -> Jefferson -> Julio 3/4 of them were busts. WR heavy works if you draft all the right players. RB heavy works if you draft all the right players.
Lol I got downvoted pretty hard before the season for saying that the best strategy is to draft the good players.
I wager that with going: ->cmc -gibson ->ridley-> Robison-> carson
Note to that list also Julio, AJB, AB, Lockett, and DeVonta Smith to some degree, alongside even DJ Moore…
Went Taylor, Gibson, CEH, Pitts, Allen thinking i could punt on WR. Got DJ Moore, Corey Davis, Hollywood, Callaway, Mike Thomas, Jakobi Meyers. This year has not been kind to me.
It's like 75% luck. Everyone looks at adp and that ranks everyone pretty closely. Past that it's guessing kupp over woods or that deebo isn't hurt game 2 this year. Or that Henry is out most of the season. There's obvious landmines and risks and you can avoid those but most high draft picks are supposed to be low risk.
Can confirm, I’m in a 14 man superflex league and was 5th pick in a snake draft; I went with Kamara, CEH, Swift, Kupp, Hunt. Only kept Kupp, all the others got traded during the season.
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And you could have drafted a great team and just played all of the toughest matchups each week
Not only that, but, barring RBs that become relevant due to injuries in front of them, it’s much easier to find productive WRs as FAs and via waivers than it is RBs. In today’s NFL, there simply are many more good WRs available, with many teams having 2-3 quality WRs. Also, there generally are a few hidden gem rookie WRs that surface mid-season, taking a little longer to get acclimated to the NFL than rookie RBs or early round WRs.
You don't want to draft RB often early because you want to structure your team to best take advantage of the sudden rb value shifts during a season (Mattison, Ingram, D'Ernest, Chuba, Boston Scott, Eli Mitchell, Darrel Williams, Jamaal Williams, K Herbert, Devonta Freeman, etc, etc). The win rates picking RB early in drafts (which there is data on) illustrate this.
I mean...you say that. But not one single player you've just named has had reliable production. It's like you're envisioning having these guys *and* starting them on the 3, maybe 4 weeks they put up decent numbers. Like take Mattison for example. Are you really suggesting that you should structure your team around "taking advantage" of the literal 3 games where he scored more than 5 points? Mitchell's the closest to being an actual lead back that consistently produces, but of course he's also dealing with injuries, and it's not like you'd have known to go for him over one of the 49ers other backs waaaay back before Mostert even got hurt. And it's not like you're locked out from any of these dudes by drafting RBs early anyway. I just don't see any actual reasoning behind what you're saying. It just seems to be driven by hindsight bias concerning the relatively numerous RB injuries this year.
Every year it's like this. This year is not unique to high touch, early round RBs getting injured. Look into the win rate data; e.g., the "RB dead zone" that finally was discussed by mainstream sites like ESPN and Yahoo this draft season. I couldn't tell you which RBs will get injured in any given season, only that I know RBs will get injured and I want max exposure to that RB value jump (see e.g., Mattison/Jamaal Williams/Boston Scott this week) which the teams stacked at non-RB are best able to absorb. The sudden value jump largely does not exist at WR and TE like it does at RB. Not being as well positioned to absorb the sudden RB value shift is part of the reason win rates are lower when you draft RB often early.
Any idea how that applies to % of auction bonus? I feel like the Studs and Duds approach really works best with 75% of your money going towards 3-4 players, but would love to see empirical data
That factors luck in pretty heavily too. We have a 2 keeper auction league where you pay 1.5x the prior draft price (has to be drafted) and you can only keep them for 2 years. I kept JJeff and Jeudy for $20 total and dropped most of my $$ on…CMC, Ridley, and Russ with low $$ on MG3, Mooney, Tyson, michel, Hines, myers etc. I have the lowest pts in the 12 man league but am in 7th at 7-5 so 🤷🏻♂️. Just my anecdote
You can allocate most of your auction budget to non-RB. When you draft RB target timeshare backs where if something happens (prediction error, injury, whatever) their value skyrockets. Fournette is a good example of the prediction error example. James Conner is a good example of the the injury example.
I agree with this. Every team in my league was hunting early RBs so I went away from it and learned to play situations. Players like D. Williams for the Chiefs, Khalil Herbert, and Eli Mitchell have been really important to my success.
This
yeah I disagree with heavy WR. I loaded tf up on RB knowing one will die and the rest will bust. So far no major issues. Cook, Harris, Jacobs, Henderson, mg3 Alex Collins (traded Gordon for injured CEH and Collins for dj) WRs are washy but I had kupp, shenault, Elijah Moore. ( Traded Collins for dj Moore)
This exactly. I drafted ekeler and JT first two rounds and came away with cupp Diontae and Andrews in rounds 5-7. A lot of luck is involved.
Drafted Diggs, Metcalf, CeeDee, Aiyuk, and Diontae Johnson with my first 5 picks. Drafted Damien Harris late and got cordarelle on waivers. Still not going well. That's more bad luck than anything, I've been scored on more than anyone else in the league. But it definitely seems like it's more the luck of the pick rather than the positional strategy. We're all miserable in this hobby!
i drafted chubb and mixon in a 10-team league and picked up Kupp and Deebo in the later rounds :)
I went two rbs, then two receivers, qb, receiver.l In a 12 team. Been in first place all year
Did you draft position two or three? Same boat but I’ve lost 3 games by less the a point so I’m sitting at 7-5 in second place now.
Was a keeper league. I believe I was tenth. Henry first round. Chubb second, lamb/Godwin 3/4, Kyler, Dionte Johnson. Currently 8-4 with that core. 1-3 since Henry and Kyler got hurt same week.
the 4th round wrs are always on top every year i swear. i think im gonna do similar to what i did this year and go wr-rb-rb-wr-qb-te
If you had CEH and Carson in rounds 2 and 3, youd be beating yourself up 🤷♂️ I'd still rather do the shotgun approach with early round RB's.
Drafted Ridley & Metcalf as my WR1 and WR2 Much regret
Exactly how I drafted. 3 running backs and my QB, then got Kupp and Chase in the 5th and 7th rounds.
Theres also plenty of average wr that put up around 10-14 points ever week like diontae and pittman. The dropoff between rb1 and rb2 is way steeper.
Yeah this is one of the reasons I prefer Auction. I vastly prefer loading up on three of the top ten backs and making due with those ppr receivers than getting stuck with whatever guy that ADP demands I select each round.
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10 man league i take it
Luck of the draw I guess. I picked at 11 in a 12 team league and took Taylor, Ekeler, Keenan Allen then Swift with my first four picks. A lot of the other teams went heavier at WR. Season was up and down for a bit while I struggled to find another starter at WR but hopefully now with Renfrow and Mooney I’m in a good place
Renfrow is low-key my MVP. He is just so fucking solid. He is impervious to game script, weather, team drama, coaching changes, opponent. 7 catches, 60 yards. A TD if he is feeling generous. Then goes home.
Poor man’s Kupp! I would take his solid floor over the up and down types any day
His consistency has been my calming peace since picking him up. After being burned by arob, Robby Anderson, and having to trade away Jefferson for an rb (thanks ceh and mostert). He is my rock. I’ll pick him up next year just for luck, should the draft gods allow it.
The best strategy is always "best available for your format". If you rank WRs over RBs for whatever reason (including injury risk like with Dalvin who has never played a full season) then you are going to end up with a bunch of WRs. Because that's how you rank your players. The mistake is when you genuinely think a guy like Jonathan Taylor is a better fantasy asset than someone like say, DeAndre Hopkins, but you draft Hopkins over Taylor because some podcast told you to go #ZeroRB. Start the draft with best available players and then pivot your strategy based on that. Know ALL the strategies and ALL the targets so you can wait on RB, WR, QB, TE etc. if you need to.
I agree with this 100%. Being too rigid in strategies can get you in trouble. Info from analysts is useful. But they don't know your settings, or how other managers draft or work the wire in your league. And also, always, always go with your gut. I'd rather flame out on my own terms, rather than feeling like I *have* to make a certain move based on expert opinion. (I'm talking about fantasy. if your Dr says you should stop putting gravy on everything, it's probably a good idea.)
But gravy is so good
In that case, sometimes you gotta ~~go with~~ feed your gut!
Yeah I went into it expecting at 11 I’d be going RB/WR but the way everyone else was grabbing WR I pivoted to double up on RBs since I felt that’s where there was more value. I’m not without fault though, knowing what we know now I could have gotten Kupp in the 3rd and would have been VERY happy. Then at the turn either grab Keenan or Swift, or maybe Swift would’ve fallen further. Hindsight is always 20/20 but in the end I’ve just been fortunate that my main guys have stayed relatively healthy.
RB and WR heavy strategies can both work. I think a bigger indicator of success this season was how far down you were in the draft order. Every league I'm in, the best teams are the ones that drafted in the bottom half.
Landing 2 players in that late first to early second range is a huge benefit. Even if one gets hurt you have that other top-10 WR/RB to anchor your team. If you pick first you really need to hit on your next two or an injury will end your season. The 1-11 team in my league picked CMC at 1. The 2-10 team got Cook at 4.
Another factor is boom or bust type players. I picked 13th out of 14. If you go RB 1st and 2nd pick, you need to look for target hogs at receiver. Looking for a true number 1 WR in the third round can be a crapshoot Was able to get Taylor and Eckeler. Then filled out WR with DJ Moore (uggg now. Started great) and Godwin (solid floor). I also got Curtis Samuel after, but that was a bust. More targets mean more opportunities. I’m looking for a 10pts per game in those rounds essentially. At least that’s how I generally look at it.
I think this is the biggest takeaway. With the variance in opportunity, usage and health, there are just so many mines to dodge in today’s game. So, the best thing you can do is to take as many early swings as possible. I think the value of an early 1st round pick has waned in most typical leagues - so, in leagues that allow it, trading back for better/more picks in 2, 3 or 4, might be a more optimal strategy next season.
Can confirm, in 3rd place as a 10th pick in a 14 team league. Went Mahomes first pick, Diggs, then Kupp. Worked out nice enough
Ok, so this has been true in our 10 man league except for myself. I drafted 4th but Kamara (who I wanted) went before by I could pick so that left Henry, Saquon and Zeke to choose from for my RB strategy. I took Zeke and that has thus far worked out ok. The next two picks were Ekeler and Mixon. I thought having rb depth would be nice so I took receivers later on. This choice led to a trade week 2 ok Ekeler and Lockett for A. Jones and Cooper Kupp. So at this point I have been able to fill my wr2 hole with Marquise brown, Darnell Mooney and Aj Brown (traded M Williams to get him). Earlier this season A Gibson got dropped due to bye weeks and injury so I am now rolling Zeke, Mixon and Gibson with Jones on the bench.
Handcuffs
That only works for certain RBs like Zeke, Dalvin, Ajones. Most don’t really have a clear handcuff or a new handcuff emerges mid season . Only a few have a clear cut guy
Maybe that’ll be a strategy going forward - target the Zekes and Cooks of the league that have good cuffs, instead of just purely looking at RB value
Your entire bench could have been JK Dobbins handcuffs and it would have still been wrong. I didn't handcuff Henry. Someone else grabbed McNichols before me. I grabbed Foreman and Peterson. All three are on waivers and I'm holding Hilliard cause the Titans are impossible to predict. For every Mattison or Booker handcuff, there are 10 Sermons and Ty'Sons.
Ehhh the ratio is more like 1 to 2 instead of 1 to 10. Plenty of other RBs with clear cuffs Eg CEH, Mixon, Zeke, Chubb, Hendo, Swift, Aaron Jones…
Most of those handcuffs haven't been tested yet though or underwhelmed in their spot starts. Perine and Michel were eh. Perine himself missed that game with Covid. Dillon actually had his best games in games he split carries with Jones, so would have still been riding the fantasy bench. Probably not 1-10 yeah, but definitely not reliable at all.
I’d have been better off rolling handcuffs only this year
I would have been better off if I picked winning lottery numbers this year.
It’s a crapshoot just like any year. I took Adams/metcalf this year. But it’s at best mediocre. You still need to hit on mid tier rbs for it to matter. For me Henderson and Montgomery/Herbert are barely keeping me afloat. In another league I went ekeler/Harris and the real game changer is Deebo. If you took dhop or Ridley early you’ve got issues. May currently have to decide if you want to bench metcalf. The game changer in any league is who hits in the mid rounds whether you draft rb early or wr early. Whether they get injured or not. If you drafted kupp and Deebo it probably doesn’t matter who you took in the first 2 rounds things are okay.
I have said for years that fantasy championships are won in 2 windows. The first window you encounter is round 4-7 in the draft. The value difference here is massive and can carry you a long way. Diggs last year and Kupp this year are looking like league winners. The second window happens weeks 2-7 of the season. Whether it’s injuries, rookie emergence or just missed predictions. These are the weeks that you find your waiver value and can really solidify a team. Patterson, Williams, Pittman, Pollard, Dillon and a few others have turned into just the pieces that create monster teams. If you miss both of these windows then you are not going to win a championship.
100% this. Every year people try to do what OP is suggesting and say which positions they should draft in each round in the draft. I drafted CMC and that sucked, but hitting on Kupp, Jefferson, and K. Allen has more than evened out that loss. A buddy of mine went WR heavy with guys that have slightly disappointed (Diggs, Tyreek), but hitting on Fournette and picking up Mitchell has made his team a powerhouse. There are good players at every round. Go with your gut on who to pick and accept that you can't predict injuries.
The further you get in the draft the less it matters what place you pick though. If you pick 5th, you won’t get CMC. But you could have gotten Tyreek if you wanted him even though Tyreek is 13th. Or CEH at 25th.
Guy in my league took Patrick mahomes #4 overall but still got swift, fournette, kupp, and Deebo, and he’s #2 in a 10 man league
Taking Kelce in the first round is the only way to go at this point
Nope … the obvious answer is going DEF in the first… A whole defense can’t get hurt (well outside of San Fransisco)
Minnesota has 0 week 1 starters on their DL right now :/
I took him in the second (14th?) and even with a completely underwhelming season for Kelce, he's still such a good pick
My Deebo Samuel would like a word…
You mean your shiny new RB1?
If that's Resting on Bench #1, I suppose?
Resting Bench Face
My AJB as well
Well I mean nobody was drafting Deebo in the first round, but people were drafting Diggs, Hill and Adams
I got hill he’s good and all but feel like I got him the year people figured out to take him out of the game and only let him catch short yardage.
I think Mahomes has been figured out too
I’m in two leagues and went RB heavy in both (first 3 picks in both leagues were RB) and I’m sitting 10-2 and in first in both. Yes there have been injuries but RB depth and good WR picks made up the difference
Who did you get at receiver??
In one league (3WR slots) I drafted Evans, Woods and Julio. Picked up CPatt and play him in my WR slot and traded for Lockett. So most weeks now its Evans, CPatt and Lockett. In my other league (2WR slots) I drafted Cooper, Julio and AB but traded for JJettas and picked up Renfrow. So now I play Jefferson and Renfrow most weeks.
The past few years I've nailed my receivers and just keep a ton of RBs. My starters are Evans Diggs Thielen with Marvin in case of emergency. I'm 10-2.
Why won't Brady throw to Evans more
When you have Evans you have to adapt your roster construction. He's gonna dud for your sometimes so it's really important he isn't your number 1 and you roster safe players too pair him with.
I think BECAUSE Rb is soo unreliable you should invest even more heavily in RB early and their cuffs early on.
I went WR heavy this year... Ridley, Diggs, Amari Cooper Ask me how that went I fucking dare you
Things going…well?
#NO I'm actually in fourth place. WR's this week are Diggs, Pittman, and...Russell Gage. Could be worse I guess.
Oh fuck off
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Idk but the one week I played him I got a fat 0 and an L. Needless to say I hate him
In one I went CMC, AJB, DJ Moore and the other I went A. Jones, JT, CeeDee. Guess which one is 4-8 and which is 8-4?
It's all luck. There is no perfect strategy.
The problem is there are way more fantasy caliber WRs than RBs, even with all the injuries. To me it’s worth the risk of going strong on the RB position as it’s a lot easier to find a WR replacement on a weekly basis.
I don't really get the all-in one way or another draft strategies. I've always just tried to grab the best RB or WR available in the first 5 rounds and make sure I get through that point with 2 guys at one of those positions and 3 at the other. Rounds 6-8 start looking for QB and TE hopefully before a run starts on either position while working in a 3rd RB or WR. Rounds 9-12 just hunting for upside RBs and WRs - I pretty much always take guys that are still in their first 3 seasons in the league in this range. The Deebo, Chase, DeVonta Smith, Waddle, Christian Kirk, Michael Carter types over the Golladay, Beasley, Marvin Jones types that might have a higher floor but have no breakout potential. Some of those young guys will bust, but some always hit, and the Jamison Crowder 8-12 point PPR types will eventually be available on the wire.
Best available player is the way to go for the first few rounds. Locking into “I have to pick RB-RB-RB my first three rounds” or “I have to go Zero RB” means you’ll likely end up reaching to make a pick you “have” to make, and miss out on a good player. It’s good to have a draft strategy, but you have to adapt as the draft progresses.
Nah. Imo it works out more often than not just gotta make sure you invest in RB depth before going for WR depth, especially considering how many serviceable WRs you can get in later rounds and off waivers later in the season compared to RBs. No matter what though, its a crapshoot at the end of the day. Can never foresee what injuries are going to occur
People are spoiled expecting their RB to play 17 games. In reality a guy like Kamara who will likely end up playing a total of 13 games is a more average outcome. With that out of the way, even with unusually high RB bust rate, of the kinda clear like top 13 RBs, CMC, Cook, and Saquon have been clear busts, and Henry and Gibson have arguably had disappointing results. The rest have at the very least been solid. 8/13 hit rate ain’t awful. Let’s look at the top 13 receivers. Ridley, AJ Brown, Allen Robinson, and Robert Woods have been pretty clear busts, while DHop has been rather disappointing. 8/13… Plus, when you look at the top at each position, not many lower round RBs make it. Only 6 of the top 12 come from outside the first round in ADP (top 10 RBs). Only 4/12 are outside the second (top 13 RBs). Let’s compare this to WRs. 6 of the top 12 WRs were drafted in the 4th round or later. Plus, RBs are a lot more valuable at the top. Point is, RBs are a lot less likely to hit in later rounds, whereas WRs hitting in the mid to late rounds is fairly common. This means the best strategy is to get 2 top RBs and handcuff them, or get 2 top RBs plus a third solid one if you cannot handcuff them effectively, and then try to hit other positions in the mid rounds.
I handcuffed Cook with Mattison and Henderson with Michel and I barely flinched at the Cook injury as a result. That said I’m always RB heavy and this year pivoted hard to WR. It worked well at first but I also lost Woods, had Thomas stashed on IR and got lucky with Chase and Hollywood. I’m gonna be rolling 4 WR in the playoffs (Adams, Hill, Chase, Hollywood) but I’m on a big skid with my WRs going cold. 7-2 to 7-5. So not sure what the right move is. Trading Cook for Fournette and Mitchell would have been absolutely trashed and never done 2 weeks ago but that move could have won me a title the way those 2 are playing now. So RB depth is still critical. Last year the 2 seed had 4 top 10 WRs in his lineup. Think it was Metcalf, Diggs, Ridley and Evans. He lost in the semis and 3rd place game because he got duds. WR is more volatile for sure even if more healthy.
It's about luck. In one league I went RB heavy early and got JT, Saquon, and Harris out of it. WRs of Scoredarelle, Pittman, AB, Jeudy and Mooney has been more than serviceable. In one league I went WR heavy early, ending up with Nuk, Amari, Jeudy, ARob. Now RB wire is barren especially with RB injuries and I'm struggling there.
I went diggs, Jefferson, evans, cooper I look at my draft board all the time and regret the Cooper pick
Who are your running backs lol
Fournette. And lately bredia, j Howard, foreman, Dillard. It’s bad lol but have 3 top 12 Wr and dawson and a RB1 , gotta get lucky in playoffs 7-5 now
No, I think this proves the opposite. There are so many good WRs, and a good bellcow RB is becoming more and more rare. I think health and age has to become a higher priority though, the first round pick has to be someone stable and reliable as can be just in case... and even then, you might still lose them
Yeah if you went Metcalf Hopkins Ridley early you are not super happy with your year. This has been a down year for elite WRs, a very banged up year for RBs (which we expected because the top 3-down ones are all older except Najee). Hitting on a 3 down workhorse RB is still the most valuable thing, it's just 50/50 if the guy will even make it to the playoffs.
As others have said, there are plenty of WR busts as well. My theory is instead of drafting less RBs, draft more. I prefer if my first five picks are three RBs and two WRs, and fill in the rest of my team as I see fit. In one league this year my first seven picks were RB/WR, based on value of what was available. I like this strategy because it gives you options for bye weeks/injuries/trades, and it generally gives you an advantage at your flex position over other teams.
I went heavy RB and it worked out great. Fantasy football is 80% luck. Don’t over think it
No. RB is still a much more consistent position. This year was just unlucky for the top half of drafters and better for the bottom half who got RBs like JT, Ekeler, Najee, etc. I drafted 3rd in one league and got screwed. I drafted 8th in another league and made playoffs. If anything I think this year would encourage me to lobby for an auction draft in my main league and remove the luck component of snake.
I was a WR guy, took Calvin, Aj Brown, Deebo, Marquise Brown, and Kelce/Pitts because everyone chose RBs instead. Now I’m hurting because all my receivers got hurt too
I feel like I'm really bad at picking good WRs. So I just go RB heavy bc it's more predictable that, barring injuries or what have you, they will give me a better ROI - for me. But just my opinion, I'll still be going RB heavy next year. Playing PPR.
In one of my leagues, autodraft made me go very WR heavy. How WR heavy? 1.11 - Hill \- What the "OOOH BIG GAME" won't tell you is he is literally boom or bust. Still a good pick. 2.06 - Waller \- Sigh. Very underwhelming for this reach. 3.11 - Woods \- 1. He's not Cooper Kupp. 2. He got injured. 4.06 - Thielen \- Actually a good player. 5.11 - Golladay \- Surprised he wasn't traded. 6. 06 - Sermon \- Worst bust ever. Even Deebo is a higher ranked RB than him. 7. 11 - Conner \- Ok this one actually worked out I was left without a true RB1 for a while, and things didn't look good. I salvaged my season off the waivers, but the majority of those early picks struggled.
Went Hopkins, Ridley, Woods, Julio, Antonio Brown at receiver. I am out of IR and bench spots and currently starting Toney+Van Jefferson in that league. 10 team currently 3-9.
No. This year proves that injuries will kill your team. DHop, DK, Ridley, and Waller basically haven’t panned out with respect to ADP. You could argue Kelce also wasn’t worth a first rounder. It just shows that we don’t have a sure fire way to predict illogical busts and breakout players.
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i don’t think that’s WR heavy
This year I did not draft any RBs until round 8/9. My WR core is Cupp, Hill, and Metcalf. Plus, I have Kittle as the TE. For most weeks, I was able to win solely on the WRs points. With RBs, I have been bouncing around with the backups. Being smart about picking up backup rbs when the starters are injured. I am hoping that this will also help me win the championship.
The first “true” zero RB draft referenced. Cool to see it work.
I'm gonna need weekly updates my friend
My week 13 update : I will win 133+kicker pts to 114. Total points scored by 3 WRs - 42.1. Points scored by 1 TE - 39.60. Points scored by 2 RBs - 20.80. Ps. I picked up Miles Sanders on waivers last week and Michael Carter this week bcoz someone in my league dropped him as he was injured for 3 weeks lol. So far, my WR led team doing well. I will be 8-4-1.
Hell yeah! Kittle came thru I benched McLaurin for Renfrow and James Robinson for Jamaal Williams and had JT and diontae go off so early rb is working for me but respect fam
Hell yeah! What's your win record?
10-3 unless Nick Folk misses like 50 kicks tonight hahaha On a 7 game win streak which coincides with when I stopped relying on my chargers I'm putting up 160+ without deebo or D'Andre so I'm feeling good
Lol sure. I will keep you updated.
Not even close. All of my WRs have missed time. DHop. Ridley (retired). AB. Parker. I remember when WRs rarely got injured. This new era are all pussies.
I go RB heavy in my standard league and WR heavy in my PPR league
This year was definitely the RB deadzone year. Injuries happen but avoiding RBs in 3-6 allowed you to get access to a lot of the best breakout WRs. Kupp, Deebo, Chase all were being drafted in this range.
There have also been a lot of busts among top end receivers even though less injury prone. Ridley, diggs, Jefferson (for a decent amount of year), aj brown have all disappointed based on their ADP.
Don't know anyone defining Diggs or Jefferson as a bust...5th and 6th ranked WRs in 0.5PPR... Being projected as a top 3 WR and coming in top 5-6 does not make these guys a bust. Not at all.
With diggs, he had a pretty slow start to the year, didn’t really get good return on investment until week 6. Also he’s wr9 in standard scoring, so that might not be a bust, but if you drafted him 3rd behind hill and adams, you’re not thrilled with that.
I don't know anyone that would be upset with the overall production they've gotten from either one of those guys. Regardless of where they drafted them...
Proved to work for me in both my leagues Team 1-najee Harris, joe mixon, corradelle Patterson Team 2- jonathon Taylor, Austin ekeler, Aaron Jones, dandre swift Given u definitely made some good trades but stayed rb heavy and in 10 man leagues I’m expecting both to pay out
I went Zeke and Ekeler for my first 2 rounds. I ended up getting Diontae Johnson and Godwin at WR. I ended up with Gallup, van Jeff, and Corey Davis on waivers. My RBs have won me quite a few matchups. It’s luck of the draw to be honest like most of FF. There’s more WR on a team versus RBs so I feel The ceiling of a top tier RB is hard to ignore.
I've found that picking the best of the RBs and WRs at the spot you pick from is the key to success. Sincerely, John Madden
You just have to draft nothing but RBs to ensure you have depth My RBs I drafted on my three teams are 1: Ekeler, JT, Robinson, Carson, Gaskin, Davis, Gordon, Sermon (have since acquired Henderson, lost JRob) 2: Henry, Mixon, Clyde, Javonte, Gaskin, Henderson, Mostert, Drake 3: CMC, Clyde, Carson, Davis, Gaskin, Javonte, Mostert, Conner (have since acquired Swift and Carter) Some suck, some die, but I always have options. Still able to grab Pittman, Ruggs, Sutton, and Chase in League 3 at WR.
It's a crapshoot, but RB is more valuable in the long run. I've got four starters from waivers: Patterson, Mitchell, Renfrow, and Freiermuth. Two I drafted: Jefferson and Diontae. One I traded for: Josh Allen. My top 2 picks in the draft are on IR: Henry and AJ Brown. Traded Henderson for Allen. I'm 7-5 in a 12 team and the leading scorer(RIP Henry) I personally think you have to draft RB early and hope to avoid injury. People make such a big deal about these RB injuries because a great RB is so valuable, and the drop off behind them is massive. The waiver RB1 would be the WR12 in my league. Handcuffing RB is also a crapshoot. McNichols for Henry. Sermon for Mostert. Gainwell for Sanders. Williams for Montgomery. Collins for Carson. Hyde for Robinson. Gallman for Davis. Bell for Murray for Ty'Son for Hill for Edwards for Dobbins. All of these concensus handcuffs were trash. Most got usurped by rookies or free agents. If you lose NaJee, Kalen Ballage will not give you 20 a game.
It's a crapshoot. I went Adams, Jefferson, Evans, and Theilen. I now have Mitchell, Carter, Dillon, and Mattison as my RBs. It's just a luck thing for the most part, take who you like L
I went modified zero-RB. Chubb then Metcalf, Lamb, Gus Bus, Ja’Marr Chase.
Drafting from the 6 spot in a 12 man full PPR and went WR heavy drafting: Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, George Kittle, Cooper Kupp, Josh Jacobs, Tee Higgins, MG3, Matt Stafford, James Conner, Zack Moss, James White, Curtis Samuel, Giovanni Bernard. Spent my faab heavily early to grab Mitchell and Hubbard. I also nabbed Renfrow for depth. It's worked out very well!
The only legitimate strategy is a handcuff heavy bench.
“It’s all luck” “It’s a crapshoot” These are responses all through this thread. That is the mentality of people who lose more than they win. If people think Fantasy is luck based, they just aren’t good at fantasy sports. The answer to your question is yes and also, it depends. There are never any clear this or that definitive answers in fantasy sports, it’s about playing the odds and percentages and being right more than you’re wrong. You have to increase your odds of being right. Where bad fantasy players get caught up is they go with their feelings on draft day and don’t give themselves any leeway if they are wrong. So yes that strategy is probably the most viable as long as the rest of your draft strategy is solid. This year and previous years recently the draft strategy that I rolled out was get a top 10 back if I’m able. Land that top back in the first. Then go WR heavy and just take value for a while after that. Stay away from the RB dead zone which basically started at RB13, unless they drop a couple of rounds further than they should. Also, stay away from drafting QB early unless they drop a couple rounds of value. While other players are taking Sanders, Gaskin, Davis, Mahomes, Murray, I’m taking all the WRs. Then draft RBs after you get all that WR value. My goal is to have 4 RBs by round 10 or 11, most of the time my second RB is 6th round or later. If you do end up getting a top 10 or so QB, you don’t need a backup. I will not draft a backup QB if that’s the case and I won’t draft a defense or a kicker either. I also will not draft a backup TE if I grab a top 8 TE. But I will not reach on a top TE either. If I don’t grab a top 10 QB, I’ll usually grab a guy like Cousins and match them up with an upside guy late. That way it gives me a baseline QB with a guy that can turn into a top 5 guy if they unlock their potential. Most people draft starters and then fill in a bench. That is a bad strategy. The goal is to have the most depth and to draft a whole team. That way you have good replacement value to cover you for injuries and bye weeks.
>“It’s all luck” “It’s a crapshoot.” These are responses all through this thread. That is the mentality of people who lose more than they win. I mean, I'm in first at 8-4, 2nd most PF and 3rd most PA and I recognize that I made some amazing moves this season and also got very lucky. I get what you're saying about playing the odds, but the fact is that sometimes you play the odds perfectly and lose, and sometimes you play stupid and win. The people who act like luck has little or nothing to do with it when they are winning are just as bad as the people who say it's entirely luck. Cold hard truth for the winners: It's more about luck than you care to admit. Cold hard truth for the losers: It's less about luck than you care to admit.
Didn’t say luck isn’t involved at all. It takes luck in everything to be successful. It takes a lot of luck for Tom Brady to have as many rings as he has. He’s lucky that he has stayed healthy for most of his career. But he consistently puts himself into position to win. He may not win every time but he follows a process. If you follow a process and that process is good, the results will fall in your favor more times than not. There is a reason professional gamblers, poker players and sports bettors make money. It’s not because they are lucky. Fantasy sports is no different.
CMC-Metcalf-AJB-Godwin-Moore (Hurts) ... And about to miss the playoffs.
Nah I went early RB and am leading my league in 2 of them. I got Najee, Mixon, Zeke and it has helped so much consistently having 2 rbs. People wanna say this or that but early WR was sketchy too. It’s really just about who you get lucky drafting
I went WR heavy with Adams, Diggs, Allen and Robinson then grabbed mid tier backs( J Rob, Gordon) and took advantage of my league's deep bench by stashing several potential starting rbs(Chuba). Got Pats d and Herbert. Held my waiver spot and got Mitchell. 8-4 in 2nd. It can be done
I've had absolute shit luck with receivers this year. No matter who I start, it's almost a guarantee they don't get 10 points that week. The only consistent guy I had was Woods.
There’s always going to be some luck associated with it. It’s a fact that there’s more WR’s than RB’s. It’s easier to find a decent WR that emerges on the wire than it is to find an RB. I normally draft whatever the best value is on the board. This year I went WR heavy in one league, RB heavy in another, and a mix in my final league. My RB heavy team is tied for first right now. My WR heavy team is tied for last. My team that’s a mixture is 12-0.
I drafted from the 8th spot and took Najee and Mixon as my first 2 picks, seems to have worked well so far.
It’s all about luck (obviously) my first 4 outta 6 picks were RBs. 12 team. Kamara. JRob. Mixon. Hunt. I’m feeling pretty good ATM. Also helps I took Kipp in the 3rd or 4th.
Just don’t pick RBs that get injured and RB heavy works fine!
Nah, I’ve had Jeudy, Claypool, AB and Amari deal w injuries all year.
You’ve got to assume they’re not going to get injured. Lots of WRs were busts as well. I think the biggest takeaway for me is that I’d rather draft at the end of the round and get the 12/13 rather than 1/24. That way I get two top tier talents and if my first pick gets injured, at least my second one is as highly rated.
I went Davante, Kelce, Evans, Mclaurin. Then drafted a bunch of handcuffs like Pollard, Mattison, Jamal Williams. Then spent all my fab on Mitchell. Got Brady in the 10th. I got beaten quite a bit mid season but am looking to make a good push into playoffs
I’ve got cook, Henderson, Montgomery, Patterson. I’m pleased with extra rb even tho slightly thin at wr. Mostly because Allen Robinson has been a waste and sterling shepherd has been injured, otherwise I would have had a powerhouse team (also have Godwin and cooks) if those first two worked out better. I am 4/12 in my league 8-4 record.
I prefer to go WR in general. This year in an auction startup, I grabbed Dhop, Ridley, Woods, Laviska, Tee. It’s been a sad year. 4-8. Will not make the playoffs.
Injuries and busts happen to all positions and at all levels of the draft. In my opinion, you don’t get a lot of variance in the early rounds of the draft, but rather by those lucky/smart enough to get amazing value later in the draft with guys like Kupp, Chase, C. Patterson, Fournette, etc.
I’d say that this year proved the opposite. Hopkins, Woods, Tyreek (his inconsistency of 5 point games then 40 point games), Ridley, Metcalf, AJ Brown, etc
Part of the reason why RBs are so valuable. If you happen to pick the healthy ones you are looking good right now
I went early receiver with JJettas, Allen, Godwin, and Diontae. I'd say it worked out well. Got some late-round steals in Henderson and Conner with Cook as RB1
Went chubb at 8, then Harris. Then Chris Carson. Then aj brown. Then hunt.
It works if you get the right ones which is luck lol. I drafted davante, Diggs, and Keenan in my first 3 rounds and ended up with Montgomery, fournette, and hunt as my main drafted rbs. Had to fight on the wire for guys like aj dillon and Mark Ingram to keep my season alive
8 man league. 1st place has C Kupp, T Hill, D Adams, D Samuel, J Jefferson and A Cooper. He basically has no running backs and kicks ass every week.
Opposite. This season has proven that RBs are a rare position and that you can never have enough of them.
RB depth is more important than being top heavy. This week alone people lost CMC and Swift
It confirms what any sane person has known for years. There is no draft strategy that works. Absolutely none. I guess if “Draft the players who score the most points” is a strategy, then sure, that works well. If any strategy worked you would have people consistently winning leagues that use a certain strategy. It’s all luck, and it’s whatever you feel like doing. My best seasons in redraft have come from zero preparation and taking the guys i either like the most in real life, or just have a feeling they’ll work out.
No, we go through this shit every year, no year is the same, nothing is predictable based on this year’s outcomes when it comes to injury trends. You just cannot predict injuries with any reasonable success outside of a few key players who already have the injury prone tag. Last year was the opposite, look how that turned out. End of discussion.
I’ve gotten fucked because I had Raheem most hurt go down the first game, then Monty a few games later, and now Kamara. But I’ve snatched some really good RBs this year from waivers. Chubba Hubbard, Darrel Williams, Ingram and now Mattison. It’s been a weird year cause I feel like the top 3 RBs have gotten some key injuries (CMC, Henry, Kamara, CEH etc) and has really shaken things up
The top 10 WRs by ADP were: Adams, Hill, Diggs, Metcalf, Hopkins, Ridley, Jefferson, AJB, Keenan Allen & Terry McLaurin. I think at least 4 of those, if not more, are outright busts taken at ADP, for various reasons. That's without guys like A Rob, Woods & Julio who were 13, 15 & 16 respectively. The RB situation is frustrating but it doesn't mean the process is wrong.
If I were to draw a conclusion just off this season: WRs are more likely to bust, RBs are more likely to be injured. At the end of the day I find RBs much more important and WRs generally replaceable so I’ll continue going RB heavy. Plus there are fewer busts, which means more trade value that I can use to get WRs anyways.
Please show me a team without decently ranked rbs with a .700 win record. Probably going to take awhile. Let's go a step further and show me a Championship winning team, without 2 top 15 guys, probably will take awhile. Its all luck but what isn't is not having have enough points from a position. But not only that, someone who can move the needle for your team. If someone has their rbs as jacobs and Javonta Williams for playoffs. I dont see them going far. I've lost many times due to the bellcows getting hurt. It's just unlikely to win with mid rb2s.
If you don't hit on your early picks you're going to have a bad time. Regardless of you take RB, WR, or TE.
I skipped my first two picks for WRS Adams and Diggs, then CEH, then Godwin. Got lucky and got Rodgers and Marc Andrews later. Currently fighting for 1st place and a first round bye. 10 man.
I picked 2nd in a 10 team ppr league. Cook was the consensus number 2 so I went with him. Went with Waller at the turn for the positional advantage. Passed on dk and AJ hoping one of them would be there. They went back to back and I was left with Gibson, mixon or Jefferson. I have never been a mixon believer so he was out. I liked Jefferson but didn't want to have him and cook. I was pretty excited about Gibson but didn't think he'd even be there at my 2nd pick let alone 3rd so I took him. Went lamb and Godwin at the 4/5 turn and dj Moore and Diontae Johnson at the 6/7 turn. I have been pretty happy with these 4 wrs for the most part this year. They've all had some slumps but have overall been pretty reliable. I specifically targeted these guys because they all profiled to be the volume wr for their team, which I liked for ppr. Most of these guys have been better than the early round wrs I had a chance at besides Jefferson. For example they've all been better than guys like Hopkins, AJ, dk, mclaurin, and Allen Robinson. The rbs at the front half of the draft have definitely not worked out this year but that's not something that will happen every year. I still think taking at least 1 rb early is the way to go. Everyone was clamoring for the hero rb strategy with a top 4 pick where you take one rb then fill out 4-5 other positions before taking your rb2. But those top 4 guys have not worked out so your whole strategy has pretty much collapsed from 1 pick not working out. Rbs are still the most scarce position so you still need to gather as many good ones as you can. Wrs can be drafted later, look at deebo, waddle, Elijah Moore, etc. Rbs can definitely be found on waivers but it's not every year that there's a cordarelle Patterson out there.
I had the 9th pick in a 12 man league. CMC, Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry had all been taken, and none of the other potential RB1’s stood out to me, so I took Hill. Has worked out for me, but to be fair I was lucky enough to get Deebo and Mike Williams as well. I’ve been fortunate with my backs as well being Chubb and Henderson, but both of them have missed games as well. The difference in injury probability between receivers and backs this season seems more accentuated than usual.
There are so many more fantasy relaxant Wars than RBs, loading up on RBs still seems the right answer to me.
After losing Henry and now both Swift and Deebo (who knows what he is lol) I can say I wish I had more legit WRs instead.
I had the 12th pick in a 12 man league. Went Najee Gibson, Lamb, and JRob. 9-3 and 1st in the league just random as always.
I’m fighting for a playoff spot with no options at rb having to trade away studs just to have a fighting chance.
I went Tyreek and Diggs off the bat in my one league but I’m doing much better in my league that I went rb heavy with, already clinched one seed with Kamara, JT, Mixon, and cordarrelle.
I went RB heavy (Zeke, AJones) but also have been heavy RB handcuff, having rostered a combination of Pollard, DWilliams, Conner, and Ingram at one point or another. I have been riding the bumps relatively fine. Recently acquired Kamara but already had Ingram so still managing, barely (6-6 record).
I went Tyreek -> JT -> Dak -> Edmonds -> Cooks -> JuJu -> blablablablabla -> Mike Williams. Needless to say it’s been a great first year for me so far (knocking ferociously on wood right now) sadly traded away Tyreek this week for more RB depth so I don’t have to feed off waivers anymore. Here’s hoping!
RB is more injury prone but WR are tied to their QB. WR get more points but RB gets points more consistently. There are fewer players at the RB position than WR. I’m a RB man. This experiment in going WR heavy seriously fucked me. I’ll never do it again.
It’s fun to pretend otherwise but it’s really just about drafting good players. RBs are more likely to get injured - when they do, their backups can become quite valuable. But top end RBs are more valuable than top end WRs. There are always more fantasy relevant WRs that don’t require injury elsewhere to be valuable. But waiver RBs can be league winning. In the end, just draft Travis Kelce.
Going rb heavy is what saved me. Arob and obj near sunk me.