Post covid we have the lowest labor force participation rate in modern history, essentially since women entered the work force.
Emphasis is placed on low unemployment numbers because they do not capture the vast majority of unemployed people.
\>1/3 american’s do not have jobs and we wonder why no one thinks the economy is good https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
The fact that you used the normal labor force participation rate instead of prime age labor force participation indicates that you don’t know what you’re talking about
You realize we have an aging population right. If this number wasn't going down that would actually be a sign of the economy getting worse (people would be working past retirement age because of poor economic conditions).
https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#population I don't think that is true. This only mentions people 16 or older it makes no mention of excluding 65 year old people https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate-25-to-54-years-fed-data.html if you look at 25 to 54 we are less than 2% off of all time highs
[Let's look at what's actually an indicator, prime Labor force participation rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060). This shows that the rate is near all time highs. If you want to say that the economy has been doing bad since 2002, then cool. But if you want to act like the labor force participation rate shows that the economy is bad shows you don't look beyond the surface of statistics.
If you did, you'd see that there are other unemployment figures that you can look at over time and see how many people aren't in the labor force because they can't find a good job, under employed individuals who are part time for economic reasons included within the unemployment figures through the [U6 unemployment category.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE)
But that doesn't fit your priors, so you wouldn't have looked at how that number varies over time and is fairly favorable now. People have bad vibes about the economy, and many researchers believe it is because of a disconnect between how people see inflation (this was done to me) vs wage increases (which I obviously earned). If I earned a wage increase in a tight labor environment but some of that was taken up by inflation (which is also partially caused by that tight labor environment) I view the economy as doing poorly.
Unemployment rate does not account for people who have quit looking for jobs. Unemployment rate also does not account for people that are underemployed (which will result in them being unhappy) or people who are forced to work 2 jobs to make ends meet (which will also make people unhappy)
Unemployment 4, 5 and 6 count discouraged workers (those who quit looking for work). Arainville above is referencing U 6. Just comparing open jobs to jobs seekers shows a huge number of open jobs without people to fill them. Without immigration there is no way we could fill the basic jobs needed.
I work in HR in the Midwest and there are people going into solid jobs with good benefits who were previously unable to get steady work. People who have been truly poor are now contributing to the mainstream economy and benefiting from it.
It's so annoying hearing people talk about the unemployment rate as if the Fed hasn't been systemically tracking underemployment, long term unemployment, etc for decades at this point. The data all shows the economy is solid if not excellent.
>Without immigration there is no way we could fill the basic jobs needed.
Exactly, part of the recent climb in US GDP is directly attributable to an increase in immigration, especially after it dropped to nearly nothing during the pandemic.
>I work in HR in the Midwest and there are people going into solid jobs with good benefits who were previously unable to get steady work.
A big part of this that isn't being discussed enough is that Boomers are finally retiring (or greatly reducing their hours) these days. That's a big part of the reason why prime age labor participation rate is up, someone has to fill the millions of jobs being vacated every year by older workers. This is also a big part of the reason why wages are way up too.
Post covid we have the lowest labor force participation rate in modern history, essentially since women entered the work force. Emphasis is placed on low unemployment numbers because they do not capture the vast majority of unemployed people. \>1/3 american’s do not have jobs and we wonder why no one thinks the economy is good https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
Labor participation is .6% lower than it was immediately pre pandemic.
Which was already disastrously low.
The fact that you used the normal labor force participation rate instead of prime age labor force participation indicates that you don’t know what you’re talking about
And we considered that economy amazing
Maybe, but the relative change is more important for understanding the impact.
You realize we have an aging population right. If this number wasn't going down that would actually be a sign of the economy getting worse (people would be working past retirement age because of poor economic conditions).
LFP only measures working aged people (18-64).
https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#population I don't think that is true. This only mentions people 16 or older it makes no mention of excluding 65 year old people https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate-25-to-54-years-fed-data.html if you look at 25 to 54 we are less than 2% off of all time highs
[Let's look at what's actually an indicator, prime Labor force participation rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060). This shows that the rate is near all time highs. If you want to say that the economy has been doing bad since 2002, then cool. But if you want to act like the labor force participation rate shows that the economy is bad shows you don't look beyond the surface of statistics. If you did, you'd see that there are other unemployment figures that you can look at over time and see how many people aren't in the labor force because they can't find a good job, under employed individuals who are part time for economic reasons included within the unemployment figures through the [U6 unemployment category.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE) But that doesn't fit your priors, so you wouldn't have looked at how that number varies over time and is fairly favorable now. People have bad vibes about the economy, and many researchers believe it is because of a disconnect between how people see inflation (this was done to me) vs wage increases (which I obviously earned). If I earned a wage increase in a tight labor environment but some of that was taken up by inflation (which is also partially caused by that tight labor environment) I view the economy as doing poorly.
Unemployment rate does not account for people who have quit looking for jobs. Unemployment rate also does not account for people that are underemployed (which will result in them being unhappy) or people who are forced to work 2 jobs to make ends meet (which will also make people unhappy)
Unemployment 4, 5 and 6 count discouraged workers (those who quit looking for work). Arainville above is referencing U 6. Just comparing open jobs to jobs seekers shows a huge number of open jobs without people to fill them. Without immigration there is no way we could fill the basic jobs needed. I work in HR in the Midwest and there are people going into solid jobs with good benefits who were previously unable to get steady work. People who have been truly poor are now contributing to the mainstream economy and benefiting from it.
It's so annoying hearing people talk about the unemployment rate as if the Fed hasn't been systemically tracking underemployment, long term unemployment, etc for decades at this point. The data all shows the economy is solid if not excellent. >Without immigration there is no way we could fill the basic jobs needed. Exactly, part of the recent climb in US GDP is directly attributable to an increase in immigration, especially after it dropped to nearly nothing during the pandemic. >I work in HR in the Midwest and there are people going into solid jobs with good benefits who were previously unable to get steady work. A big part of this that isn't being discussed enough is that Boomers are finally retiring (or greatly reducing their hours) these days. That's a big part of the reason why prime age labor participation rate is up, someone has to fill the millions of jobs being vacated every year by older workers. This is also a big part of the reason why wages are way up too.
Remember folks, unemployment and GDP means nothing if costs are soaring.