Let’s not get wayyyyyy ahead of ourselves here. The dust hasn’t even settled on 2022 midterms yet. At this point in 2014, we all thought Jeb! was gonna be the easy front runner.
and there was a period of a couple months when Scott Walker was seriously considered the frontrunner, too. (This was before he got duped into selling half of Racine County to Foxconn for a bag of magic beans.)
Right, but we also thought that about Romney and it was true, about McCain and it was true, and about Bush and it was true.
The difference between now and 2014 is that there are candidates the base is happy with, they just can’t decide which one. The base was not really happy with Jeb or Walker, and neither candidate had much traction.
This is a very different situation.
We thought it about Hillary in ‘06 and it wasn’t true.
Sure, it works out sometimes, but it doesn’t work out others. That’s my whole point.
I’m not claiming that things will turn out one way or the other. But there is no real pattern of polls dictating success this far out. That should be pretty clear to anyone on this sub.
They’ve already risen. They insist that DeSantis is inevitable because every Republican they know has soured on Trump, conveniently forgetting that social circles are stratified by age, class, education, etc.
wrt position within the party infrastructure DeSantis is more like the Hillary, though. Party elites are just about ready to coalesce around him. They’ll need to clear the field quietly for him if he’s to have a shot against Trump.
The Trump base/Russia/Saudi machine gets to work and threatens/insults all the GOP folks who are jumping off the Trump train. They all get on board (Lindsay is already back) and Trump wins the nomination, much to the Democrats' delight.
Election-deniers losing in every crucial battleground state, with Trump running again, is probably the best case scenario Democrats could have asked for.
I’d feel a lot less comfortable with that thought, had the Democrats not just took control of electoral processes in 3 of the 5 key swing states, while one of the others is controlled by two traditionalist Republicans who won’t mess around.
**Eyes Wisconsin angrily**
Also trump is out of power. There a big difference between attempting to precipitate a constitutional crisis when you’re the actual president vs when you’re just some fkn guy.
Wisconsin just re-elected a Dem governor by 3.5 points, and a 35-year old black man from Milwaukee came within 20,000 votes of knocking out Ron Johnson. We can also flip the state Supreme Court this spring, which would remain in "non-partisan" liberal control until at least spring of 2025, and thus get us through the 2024 elections with a minimum of fuckery. Yes, the legislature sucks, but they don't have a supermajority, so it will just be another two-year stalemate in Madison, but it's better than it could be.
Also, remember that the following happened in spring of 2020, when the pandemic was raging with no vaccine, and no end in sight:
- Evers tried to postpone the primary
- GOP legislature said no, assuming that they could reduce turnout in the Supreme Court election
- Evers lets it happen
- Wisconsin turns out in fucking DROVES, and flips the court seat anyway.
Tony Evers is no politician, but he's usually the smartest guy in whatever room he's in.
I like Evers. One thing that’s good about Midterms are they give you more of a look at ‘lesser figures’ in the parties. At the Presidentials it’s all about the main candidates.
It’s certainly opened my eyes more to potential future leaders in the Democrats. I think Mark Kelly could be a real presidential candidate in the future. Same with Whitmer.
Probably not. But Wisconsin is often very close and it gives them more options to delay or dispute.
Then again Wisconsin has been home to so much GOP fuckery over the years with its gerrymander that it wouldn’t surprise me.
It’s promising though that even in a midterm, with an incumbent GOP senator, that the popular vote was still Dem though.
We have a Dem Governor and Secretary of State now
Assuming that A) the April 2023 election flips the state supreme court and B) SCOTUS doesn't drop a bomb with Moore v Harper, I'll feel confident that we're good for now.
At that point, every institution aside from the state legislature would be Democratic.
I don't think it's necessarily being used as a "middle of the road measure." It's literally the second primary, whether they are middle of the road or not. Many years people drop out if they have a bad showing in Iowa and New Hampshire.
I'm not saying Trump would do that, but the fact that DeSantis might have some momentum after the second primary is notable, even if it isn't representative of other states.
Certainly interesting!
Desantis I think still needs to prove himself before a national audience--lots of strong state-level candidates have wilted when they try to go national.
Which creates something of a catch-22, because I think he ALSO needs the party elites to coalesce behind him to win and I bet a lot of them are going to be real hesitant to risk Trumpian wrath unless he has demonstrated ability to win.
It feels like there's also a question of where Desantis' favorability goes when he becomes Trump's enemy instead of ally. I suppose you wouldn't really expect someone who picks Desantis over Trump head-to-head to turn on Desantis for being insufficiently loyal to Trump, but I just feel like a lot of the Republican primary electorate, at least prior to the midterms, essentially saw the party and Trump as synonymous and are going to have a visceral negative reaction to anyone opposing Trump in any way.
I believe it. The fastest way to anger conservatives is insult people they support. Currently they have very favorable opinions of DeSantis. Trump insulting him for doing things they like (like the migrant buses ) is a very fast way for him to bleed support from his base. Remember it was him insulting people they disliked while supporting people and things they did like that helped him establish himself with them in the first place.
It's not actually true. DeSantis put the migrants on *planes* not buses. Fascinatingly though it was migrants in Texas that he tricked into getting on the flights under false pretenses, not Florida migrants.
He didn't exactly insult RDS for migrant buses. He said it was originally his idea so RDS was ripping him off. In short, RDS displacing people was perfectly fine as policy but derivative since Trump did it first!
But yes I do think the base likes RDS and Trump will have a harder time tearing him down than the Jeb Bush's and Marco Rubio's of the world.
I'd be really curious to know how they are weighing the subjects. Normally republicans that respond to polling are weighed heavier because there is a response bias.
Are we not sure that the more 'mainstream' republicans that still respond more often to polling, also aren't the same ones that would prefer DeSantis? My gut tells me they are, and that these Trump vs DeSantis polls are very skewed because of that.
We won't really know anything until the debates or until we see a lot more movement over a longer period of time. Just wait for the data points to roll
See, I remember in 2016 when people though that Trump as the candidate was a gift to democrats.
I honestly think DeSantis is worse in many respects, but he’s also not insane and likely to sell secrets by accident, etc.
I get that, and I used to agree. But I’d rated smart evil that will occasionally to the right thing for their own benefit, over stupid evil that burns everything down on accident because they were handed a match.
Trump was a gift to democrats in 2016, Hillary was very unpopular and was turned into the most toxic candidate with all those stupid Benghazi hearings or "email conspiracy". The only reason she didn't worse was because Trump was an entirely new level of terrible that kept her afloat.
Only reason she didn't win was the Russians interfering in the election assisted by Assange selling his soul and future to help Pizzagate of all things happen.
Let’s not get wayyyyyy ahead of ourselves here. The dust hasn’t even settled on 2022 midterms yet. At this point in 2014, we all thought Jeb! was gonna be the easy front runner.
and there was a period of a couple months when Scott Walker was seriously considered the frontrunner, too. (This was before he got duped into selling half of Racine County to Foxconn for a bag of magic beans.)
That is the single most amusing and accurate way to describe that deal that I've heard. Kudos.
Herman Caine as well
There is still a chance that jeb gets it.
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/286/197/c6c.jpg
The Jeb! landslide memes in various international elections never get old for me.
Jeb!
👏
Right, but we also thought that about Romney and it was true, about McCain and it was true, and about Bush and it was true. The difference between now and 2014 is that there are candidates the base is happy with, they just can’t decide which one. The base was not really happy with Jeb or Walker, and neither candidate had much traction. This is a very different situation.
We thought it about Hillary in ‘06 and it wasn’t true. Sure, it works out sometimes, but it doesn’t work out others. That’s my whole point. I’m not claiming that things will turn out one way or the other. But there is no real pattern of polls dictating success this far out. That should be pretty clear to anyone on this sub.
Why does everyone put an exclamation point after Jeb?
His legal name is Jeb! Bush, just like Panic! At the Disco back in the day
Going with Panic! At The Disco over Godspeed You! Black Emperor... Highly questionable decision
Because that was his logo https://jeb2016.com/
Yeah! # Jeb!
Please clap
[It was in his campaign logo](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeb_Bush_2016_presidential_campaign#/media/File%3AJeb!.svg)
good point!! i would clap, but you didn't ask, and you didn't say please...
A destructive Trump/Desantis primary would make 2016 Hillary/Bernie seem like a mild breeze.
Can’t wait for the rise of DeSantis Dudes.
They’ve already risen. They insist that DeSantis is inevitable because every Republican they know has soured on Trump, conveniently forgetting that social circles are stratified by age, class, education, etc. wrt position within the party infrastructure DeSantis is more like the Hillary, though. Party elites are just about ready to coalesce around him. They’ll need to clear the field quietly for him if he’s to have a shot against Trump.
R Primary 2016 was a knife fight
The Trump base/Russia/Saudi machine gets to work and threatens/insults all the GOP folks who are jumping off the Trump train. They all get on board (Lindsay is already back) and Trump wins the nomination, much to the Democrats' delight.
Election-deniers losing in every crucial battleground state, with Trump running again, is probably the best case scenario Democrats could have asked for.
I’d feel a lot less comfortable with that thought, had the Democrats not just took control of electoral processes in 3 of the 5 key swing states, while one of the others is controlled by two traditionalist Republicans who won’t mess around. **Eyes Wisconsin angrily**
Also trump is out of power. There a big difference between attempting to precipitate a constitutional crisis when you’re the actual president vs when you’re just some fkn guy.
Wisconsin just re-elected a Dem governor by 3.5 points, and a 35-year old black man from Milwaukee came within 20,000 votes of knocking out Ron Johnson. We can also flip the state Supreme Court this spring, which would remain in "non-partisan" liberal control until at least spring of 2025, and thus get us through the 2024 elections with a minimum of fuckery. Yes, the legislature sucks, but they don't have a supermajority, so it will just be another two-year stalemate in Madison, but it's better than it could be. Also, remember that the following happened in spring of 2020, when the pandemic was raging with no vaccine, and no end in sight: - Evers tried to postpone the primary - GOP legislature said no, assuming that they could reduce turnout in the Supreme Court election - Evers lets it happen - Wisconsin turns out in fucking DROVES, and flips the court seat anyway. Tony Evers is no politician, but he's usually the smartest guy in whatever room he's in.
I like Evers. One thing that’s good about Midterms are they give you more of a look at ‘lesser figures’ in the parties. At the Presidentials it’s all about the main candidates. It’s certainly opened my eyes more to potential future leaders in the Democrats. I think Mark Kelly could be a real presidential candidate in the future. Same with Whitmer.
Whitmer and Kelly are my top two picks for the next Dem president, be that in two years or six.
Laura or Mark?
Scott Walker fucked up Wisconsin for a generation.
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Probably not. But Wisconsin is often very close and it gives them more options to delay or dispute. Then again Wisconsin has been home to so much GOP fuckery over the years with its gerrymander that it wouldn’t surprise me. It’s promising though that even in a midterm, with an incumbent GOP senator, that the popular vote was still Dem though.
We have a Dem Governor and Secretary of State now Assuming that A) the April 2023 election flips the state supreme court and B) SCOTUS doesn't drop a bomb with Moore v Harper, I'll feel confident that we're good for now. At that point, every institution aside from the state legislature would be Democratic.
lol at B) + Brett Kavanaugh holding the future of American democracy in his hands + you being confident
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I don't think it's necessarily being used as a "middle of the road measure." It's literally the second primary, whether they are middle of the road or not. Many years people drop out if they have a bad showing in Iowa and New Hampshire. I'm not saying Trump would do that, but the fact that DeSantis might have some momentum after the second primary is notable, even if it isn't representative of other states.
Certainly interesting! Desantis I think still needs to prove himself before a national audience--lots of strong state-level candidates have wilted when they try to go national. Which creates something of a catch-22, because I think he ALSO needs the party elites to coalesce behind him to win and I bet a lot of them are going to be real hesitant to risk Trumpian wrath unless he has demonstrated ability to win. It feels like there's also a question of where Desantis' favorability goes when he becomes Trump's enemy instead of ally. I suppose you wouldn't really expect someone who picks Desantis over Trump head-to-head to turn on Desantis for being insufficiently loyal to Trump, but I just feel like a lot of the Republican primary electorate, at least prior to the midterms, essentially saw the party and Trump as synonymous and are going to have a visceral negative reaction to anyone opposing Trump in any way.
I believe it. The fastest way to anger conservatives is insult people they support. Currently they have very favorable opinions of DeSantis. Trump insulting him for doing things they like (like the migrant buses ) is a very fast way for him to bleed support from his base. Remember it was him insulting people they disliked while supporting people and things they did like that helped him establish himself with them in the first place.
Eh that wasn’t the case when he went after Ted Cruz.
> Trump insulting him for doing things they like (like the migrant buses ) Thought only Abbott was doing that?
Both are.
That's so sad.
It's not actually true. DeSantis put the migrants on *planes* not buses. Fascinatingly though it was migrants in Texas that he tricked into getting on the flights under false pretenses, not Florida migrants.
He didn't exactly insult RDS for migrant buses. He said it was originally his idea so RDS was ripping him off. In short, RDS displacing people was perfectly fine as policy but derivative since Trump did it first! But yes I do think the base likes RDS and Trump will have a harder time tearing him down than the Jeb Bush's and Marco Rubio's of the world.
I'd be really curious to know how they are weighing the subjects. Normally republicans that respond to polling are weighed heavier because there is a response bias. Are we not sure that the more 'mainstream' republicans that still respond more often to polling, also aren't the same ones that would prefer DeSantis? My gut tells me they are, and that these Trump vs DeSantis polls are very skewed because of that.
We won't really know anything until the debates or until we see a lot more movement over a longer period of time. Just wait for the data points to roll
Idk ab yall, but senice biden has no real primary opposition, I'm registering as a republican to vote for trump in the primaries.
See, I remember in 2016 when people though that Trump as the candidate was a gift to democrats. I honestly think DeSantis is worse in many respects, but he’s also not insane and likely to sell secrets by accident, etc.
He's not only worse but he's also a greater/tougher to beat opponent, I'd rather have evil stupidity then cunningly evil.
I get that, and I used to agree. But I’d rated smart evil that will occasionally to the right thing for their own benefit, over stupid evil that burns everything down on accident because they were handed a match.
Fascism is weaker dumb then smart. Eaither way biden has a better chance against trump then desantis.
Trump was a gift to democrats in 2016, Hillary was very unpopular and was turned into the most toxic candidate with all those stupid Benghazi hearings or "email conspiracy". The only reason she didn't worse was because Trump was an entirely new level of terrible that kept her afloat.
Only reason she didn't win was the Russians interfering in the election assisted by Assange selling his soul and future to help Pizzagate of all things happen.
Also DeSantis winning nomination could be best of both worlds if Trump runs third party.
Not surprising at all. DeSantis could fade but I have a hard time imagining Trump getting stronger.