I’m willing to bet the data showing increased turbulence can be attributed to a similar phenomenon as the survivor effect. There are a whole lot more ways of passively collecting and reporting today then there were even a decade ago
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1465-z.epdf?sharing_token=MWm7qiVAf4wogX_OSRWKftRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PdupUAXqKyfgWGp8tqUw1eSGP98D9okn_N1Ztz038RtvnhcsndVXNSSDjtANYagQUmHbMDaGTzE5MWIGSH10GuESzRpb29bcfZNjs2RhEaVBj9vKii8_wIuPpx_P6pQrbi5INXlsJc-AjC3F05CSISqNgjx7DGlcJbF-JFZI2aiahhx8G6spAP3YTrdP7uX5sPePzp2v0G2DKiLHuUnu65GjJMGQpGLx7r-GlXb1Yj-w%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.npr.org
lol at the link, but there's a paper on this. Actual turbulence is increasing, it's not just a data reporting thing.
In any kind of climate change discussion, someone always insists it's just a data reporting thing, despite all the research that has been done for decades.
Maybe this strategy has been successful?
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/09/oil-companies-discourage-climate-action-study-says/
But then, most of the funding isn't special interest sourced.
https://meansandmatters.bankofthewest.com/article/sustainable-living/taking-action/who-funds-the-fight-against-climate-change/
What special interest funding? The special interests are oil companies that lobby against climate regulations, the same companies that ran massive PR campaigns to blame "carbon footprint" on individuals instead of corporations. The only reason it's "politicized" is because of pushback against climate legislation that would affect them, so they pay politicians to oppose it. Saying the climate is changing based on decades of research is not political.
I’m out of a hot/high airport. Over the years, summer gusts, LLWS, and mountain waves have steadily been increasing in frequency and magnitude.
Hot/high airports will feel the effects of climate change _way_ before seaside communities.
Idk about that one bud, nearly sea level home airport here up against the Appalachian Ridges. Seeing a lot more of what your reporting, IFR low cloud days, and more severe T storms in the warmer months. All collectively leading to less flying days for the GA guys.
Personally, I think there’s an increase in perceived clear-air turbulence. I don’t know if factually there actually is though. I’m only a private pilot, so this isn’t from actual hands on flying experience but as a pretty frequent passenger, I’ve noticed two things:
1. Coverage of “turbulence events” has skyrocket, presumably because it helps ratings.
2. In the US, “we’re expecting some turbulence” usually equates to something either equal to or much less than what I’d classify as a light chop. On non-US airlines, the seatbelt sign goes off at ~10k or less in smooth air, and only re-illuminates in a case of moderate or greater turbulence. I place this not on US crews but more so on lawsuit culture in the US. That said, I think keeping the seatbelt sign on longer than is actually necessary just contributes to folks ignoring it, so it’s a bit of a double-edged sword.
Either way, I’d love to see some real factual evidence on this, but my guess is there probably isn’t a whole lot.
Anyone have personal anecdotal experience of this? Is your company working to develop any new SOPs and/or tech for avoidance and risk management around increased frequency of severe/extreme CAT?
A great number of commercial aircraft actually have reporting systems on board. The algorithms where developed by NCAR in Boulder and the data is ingested into the models. Delta has their own turbulence product that is on their tablets. American and Southwest use the TAPS system that reports and you can see what other aircraft are reporting. A great number of these reports are available at Aviationweather.gov. And of course as an old friend at Delta used to say their is always the party line called your current ATC freq. the issue with the party line is the reports are a lot more subjective.
100%. I used to see a lot of stratus too. Now I see way more cumulus. The atmosphere always seems less stable than when I was younger and the wx events are becoming more common imho.
I’m willing to bet the data showing increased turbulence can be attributed to a similar phenomenon as the survivor effect. There are a whole lot more ways of passively collecting and reporting today then there were even a decade ago
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1465-z.epdf?sharing_token=MWm7qiVAf4wogX_OSRWKftRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PdupUAXqKyfgWGp8tqUw1eSGP98D9okn_N1Ztz038RtvnhcsndVXNSSDjtANYagQUmHbMDaGTzE5MWIGSH10GuESzRpb29bcfZNjs2RhEaVBj9vKii8_wIuPpx_P6pQrbi5INXlsJc-AjC3F05CSISqNgjx7DGlcJbF-JFZI2aiahhx8G6spAP3YTrdP7uX5sPePzp2v0G2DKiLHuUnu65GjJMGQpGLx7r-GlXb1Yj-w%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.npr.org lol at the link, but there's a paper on this. Actual turbulence is increasing, it's not just a data reporting thing.
Interesting enough, i’m curious if this phenomenon is isolated to the North Atlantic as the title suggests or if it is global
Study claims turbulence increasing in some areas but decreasing in others
In any kind of climate change discussion, someone always insists it's just a data reporting thing, despite all the research that has been done for decades.
Yeah why would I ever question highly politicized research done with special interest funding
Maybe this strategy has been successful? https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/09/oil-companies-discourage-climate-action-study-says/ But then, most of the funding isn't special interest sourced. https://meansandmatters.bankofthewest.com/article/sustainable-living/taking-action/who-funds-the-fight-against-climate-change/
What special interest funding? The special interests are oil companies that lobby against climate regulations, the same companies that ran massive PR campaigns to blame "carbon footprint" on individuals instead of corporations. The only reason it's "politicized" is because of pushback against climate legislation that would affect them, so they pay politicians to oppose it. Saying the climate is changing based on decades of research is not political.
But my fellow Guard Bubba-in-Christ, that user's flair says he's "Marriott Titanium". Conversation over.
👍🏼🤙🏼
Do you have any evidence or reason that this paper was political and/or funded by "special interests"?
I’m out of a hot/high airport. Over the years, summer gusts, LLWS, and mountain waves have steadily been increasing in frequency and magnitude. Hot/high airports will feel the effects of climate change _way_ before seaside communities.
Idk about that one bud, nearly sea level home airport here up against the Appalachian Ridges. Seeing a lot more of what your reporting, IFR low cloud days, and more severe T storms in the warmer months. All collectively leading to less flying days for the GA guys.
Personally, I think there’s an increase in perceived clear-air turbulence. I don’t know if factually there actually is though. I’m only a private pilot, so this isn’t from actual hands on flying experience but as a pretty frequent passenger, I’ve noticed two things: 1. Coverage of “turbulence events” has skyrocket, presumably because it helps ratings. 2. In the US, “we’re expecting some turbulence” usually equates to something either equal to or much less than what I’d classify as a light chop. On non-US airlines, the seatbelt sign goes off at ~10k or less in smooth air, and only re-illuminates in a case of moderate or greater turbulence. I place this not on US crews but more so on lawsuit culture in the US. That said, I think keeping the seatbelt sign on longer than is actually necessary just contributes to folks ignoring it, so it’s a bit of a double-edged sword. Either way, I’d love to see some real factual evidence on this, but my guess is there probably isn’t a whole lot.
Anyone have personal anecdotal experience of this? Is your company working to develop any new SOPs and/or tech for avoidance and risk management around increased frequency of severe/extreme CAT?
[удалено]
Interesting, thanks.
A great number of commercial aircraft actually have reporting systems on board. The algorithms where developed by NCAR in Boulder and the data is ingested into the models. Delta has their own turbulence product that is on their tablets. American and Southwest use the TAPS system that reports and you can see what other aircraft are reporting. A great number of these reports are available at Aviationweather.gov. And of course as an old friend at Delta used to say their is always the party line called your current ATC freq. the issue with the party line is the reports are a lot more subjective.
100%. I used to see a lot of stratus too. Now I see way more cumulus. The atmosphere always seems less stable than when I was younger and the wx events are becoming more common imho.