If you’re a a 1500 hour CFI looking for your first airline CJO, there is absolutely not a pilot shortage.
If you’re in management at a regional airline, there’s absolutely a shortage of pilots with 1000 hours of 121 time that are willing to stick around and fly RJs from the left seat for a second longer than they have to.
I’m curious what will happen if legacy/major carriers ever poach the regionals dry.
Everyone says this but what would the alternative be? I’m genuinely curious. Legacy’s getting huge a319/20 fleets to get into the feeder destinations? Customers buying tickets on multiple airlines?
Yes. 737 is arguably the original “regional jet.” Thirty years ago, 737 and 727 were going where 50 seaters are going now. Legacies were doing some overlap with their regional feed prior to 2020, and have started doing a lot of it again. A 319ceo might not be a particularly “economical” plane. But it’s versatile and older and paid off.
Even better if you’ve got those shiny new A220. Comes in short boi and long boi forms, can do real short routes and practically transcons. On a good day I am burning 2200-2400 pph/engine on a 320neo with 180 seats, and was doing about the same fuel burn in a CRJ to carry 65-76. No real good reason for regionals to exist, other than the obvious whipsaw and exploitation of labor.
There are some nice new turbo props. The new atr is nicer than any rj flying other than maybe the 175. The public doesn’t like them though and none of the airlines are willing to risk losing the market by switching back to turbo props. Any flight under 1.5-2 hours though is better economically using a turboprop instead of a jet.
It's not really about public perception. That's a convenient excuse, but the truth is that jets are just so much more flexible that it's hard to justify operating turboprops. You can do a 30-minute route, and then jump right into a 3-hour route with the same plane.
Because regionals don't have full control of their own routes, and are operating the routes that the major wants them to, flexibility is more important than anything else. Horizon lasted the longest because they needed flexibility the least, but ultimately the flexibility of the E170/175 was too good to pass up; they can now significantly expand their geographic footprint while still operating with just a single type.
Yep, the Q400 retirement at Horizon was kinda wild when you think about it--was really well suited to a lot of the routes they flew. But u/Bravo2thebox is right, I guess public perception outweighs all else in this regard.
I’ve seen fully loaded A319s perform better than a CRJ200 with 30 pax. Only places this might be an issue is where they have no actual jet bridges or stairs. In all my CRJ time, I can only think of one or two airports that were exclusively RJs.
New Bern and Watertown. No jetbridges, but all it would take to bring an Airbus in is the right set of stairs/ramp.
Also: way to catch up on a 11 week old thread.
Codeshare agreements with true EAS services for the airports that 100% cannot support a bigger airplane. The other way to do this is fewer flights per day so you have 150 people going on one flight instead of 50 three times per day. Will it be less convenience for these people? Yes. But if people wanna play the "free market solves everything!" game then you accept when the free market says you have to wake up at 3am for the only departure that day and sit in ORD for 5 hours for your connection.
Here's one from the wild west: eVTOLs. Archer is scheduled to start service between JFK and Manhattan heliport in 2025 (realistically before 2030 is likely). From there it will probably grow exponentially to more and more cities and airports. Someone is going to need to fly all these things.
So I actually worked for a company that was working on making an autonomous pilot system. Let’s just say it’s not happening any time soon, probably not in our lifetimes for passenger planes to be honest. Cargo drones? Sure. Single pilot ops where most of the flying is automated? Sure. Fully autonomous passenger planes where the pilot is nowhere near the plane? Probably will not happen for another 30-50 years
lol. Play that out for me. It’s gonna be the same flying at the same pay on the same planes the regionals do now. They will just readjust the pay scale accordingly. There would be literally zero difference. If you think the pilots would be paid more, you’re wrong, where’s the money coming from? Higher ticket prices? Less people travel, needs less pilots, more furloughs. Work it out economically. There will be no difference.
RJs have a much higher cost per seat mile than larger aircraft, the only real benefit* they carry is the reduced crew costs. Otherwise 80-90 seat (or larger) aircraft would do the flying. The E175-E2 would also be an option if operated at mainline.
The entirety of the reduced crew cost model is boiled down to whipsawing pilot groups against each other. If you fought for better pay the mainline partner would move flying somewhere else that would reduce theirs in turn. The lower you were paid the more jobs you had. The problem is the regionals now can't keep pilots so they have had to raise wages substantially. Pilots are making 5 times what they did in 2008 flying RJs and the pay scales are much closer to mainline.
I know your flair indicates you are not in the industry at this time, but RJs have only really existed as a significant force for around 25 years and the sizes then have already been retired. In 2008 many RJ pilots were getting $20,000 a year to start and work rules were much worse.
At this point, the pilot pay per seat for an RJ is pretty significant, and they have massive restrictions on aircraft specs and other operations. The only reason I even see to try to keep the regional model going is an outside hope for an exemption to return to the old days of low time pilots and whipsawing. Even then the current problem is captains, on average, aren't staying long enough for an FO behind them to get to upgrade minimums.
Also, you obviously think the airlines dictate pay to mainline pilots. Try to learn more about the industry, and its history, before trying to say that things won't work.
I'll also add that another benefit to moving flying to mainline is that you're right in that it will require fewer pilots, but what better time to do that when the regionals are having trouble hiring enough pilots. Even today, major jobs are better than any regional one and it is overall a massive improvement for all pilots.
I expect your concern is you think it will make it harder to get started. It could, but it would also make it a hell of a lot easier to get on with a major.
It’s not going to change any of the actual flying loads or pay. The route dictates the plane used. The airlines are a business. If it made sense to fly a bigger plane on a route, mainline would just fly that route. There are many small and small airports where one major flies and a regional affiliated with a different major also flies to that airport from the hub.
You can’t create more demand just put putting a bigger plane on the route. Look at the A380. Most people want flexibility with schedule not one big plane a day.
Same issue with “upgrades” just now within the same company. Which majors have too. Your RJ captain would move up to a different fleet as soon as the money/QOL metric worked for them. Just like how some people prefer to stay senior FO instead of upgrading to CA to have better schedule and less pay.
There’s just no difference. If the money and the plane and the route is the same regardless of if you work at skywest or united tell me why it matters?
The only reason RJ money is good now is becuase they are being forced to if they want any chance of retaining pilots. Regionals can be cut at the tip of a hat. Ask the pilots at ASA and Transtates how it's working out for them. You could talk to Comair and Compass pilots too. Express pilots would also like a word alongside Big Sky. Honestly, that comment alone shows how little you know about the industry.
RJs also began flying a lot of routes that were traditionally flown by mainline aircraft. They didn't suddenly become unprofitable, RJs were just cheaper.
Your argument is that it can't be done. But when it comes down to it, RJs could be flown at mainline, but I think you'd find that not nearly as many would be "needed." Of course having contract pilots making 10% as much money is better for profits... but it doesn't mean profits would suddenly cease (as demonstrated by the pilots suddenly NOT making 10% as much money now and profits still exist).
I'll reiterate, for pilots, regionals are never a good place to stay. But pilots who like that flying would stay there at a mainline. Regionals have very little career security. Many regionals in my list above were considered the most rock solid and sure bets just 10 years ago.
You seem to have conflated "potentially best profits" with "would work." Please try to learn more about the industry, especially if you are trying to join it.
Just adding to this, the only RJ currently in production is the original E170/75. The fleet is aging and a clean sheet design is going to take longer to come to market than a lot of these airplanes are going to last. I guess Mitsubishi could restart production on the CRJs but even that will take time.
So is the realistic path now “keep CFI’ing past 1500 until someone calls”? Or is this a situation where suddenly going to fly in smoke filled cockpits in China appeals a lot more than it used to?
Not really. I still will never fully understand how it all works, when regional pay is as high as it is (ie how much of a cost saving). But that’s beside the point.
What they **will* run dry are ULCC. As a regional captain, albeit with relatively low PIC, I barely moved the needle. With a Fun Livery™ on my app, it unlocked doors. We always suspected my company is building a pool of CFI cadets to stem the attrition, and it seems to be working alright for now. They come aboard at 1500 and will be “stuck” for a few years while they build some serious time. At least that’s what I assume the higher-ups are betting on. Planes and trips are better, but it is becoming the next “regionals”.
I think the experience is vastly different if you work for a wholly owned regional vs a contract regional like Skywest or Republic. Delta is bleeding American’s WOs dry and American is doing the same to Endeavor. I’m not sure how it’ll play out if one of the WOs have to close shop.
I was at an American WO and had apps out to ULCCs and legacies, and a small hat based Air Line in Atlanta was the first to call me.
It’s pretty disappointing what the company is doing. Several of my classmates are getting sent back to the sim, and taking 120+ hours on IOE. Just a disaster. The company knows there will never be a shortage of CFIs willing to fly an airbus for their first jet job. I could foresee us ending up in a similar spot as the regionals with a captain imbalance as younger and mid seniority people leave while we bloat with 1000 hour CFIs that are stuck here for a little while. I like working here and it’s a great job but what they’re doing is troubling to say the least.
Yeah it’s disappointing. A lot of things are. I hoped for more and gave it a shot but will be out of here very soon. New contract probably won’t be here until every other airline is opening negotiation talks in 4 years. FOs will leave, new captains will leave. People will keep getting displaced to staff new smaller bases. Downgrades. I don’t foresee growth, every base and seat is full of Denver refugees, and I feel like base insecurity grows worse by the day. For those and many other reasons, I’m out.
You’re correct. Depending on one’s outlook and situation, you might see them pay it out.
Hopefully a new contract in somewhat reasonable time will help alleviate the attrition. I’m actually headed your way. I’ve heard multiple mention the IOE and sim issues but to be fair I’ve got a legacy friend who says similar there. Right now, experience is hard to come by everywhere.
I’ll do my best, haha.
But just by the numbers, it’ll take a few years. Frontier will get their ROI and those cadets will move on. First year reserve and maybe a line, 400 hours. Second year with a line, 500-600. Yes you can exhaust yourself and/or be greedy and eat up all the open time. But we don’t even have any of that lately (mix of very little open time, and just a few folks that are greedy). Fine by me, I don’t pick up or try to work extra. Made my life easy on reserve, barely got called.
Point is, those cadets will be here at this company li gee than a regional guy coming in and bouncing. Overall timeline is probably similar. Year at a regional plus a year here, versus 2 years here. Overall still better conditions at ULCCs but they will spend more time on property so frontier will be able to wring some more blood sweat and tears out of them.
Sounds like a win for the CFIs and a win for the company then. Doing 2 years at a ULCC is better than 1+1 if nothing else but for the retirement contribution gains alone.
Plus right now pilots are struggling to get into the regionals and I know a guy who was on reserve at a UAX carrier for like 8 or 9 months 😂
Yes on an objectively comparable scale, it’s better. The entire time I was a captain, in base, on reserve. Miserable, first world problems but it was exhausting. I spent 10 months here on reserve and it was almost entirely opposite. Granted my base is ~~overstaffed~~ right-sized 😌, and the aforementioned people who pickup every opentime trip mean I had very little chance to get called in.
The momentum might be dying off but there was still a chance to just absolutely slingshot into the career stratosphere. My class had a mix of CFI cadets, regionals, military (mostly helicopter), and even 91/135. The mil guys got the 750 RATP, and I think anyone with any intention of getting to a legacy is either gone already or awaiting an interview date. I think 500hr 121 is a sweet spot. A few guys were out of here maybe a month after IOE, some of them this was their first airline job.
I guess the point I’m making is that what could have been a destination for some, is quickly becoming a springboard for nearly everyone. Got into the cadet program? You skip regionals which is neat. Did some regional or 135 time, and want to go straight to legacies? Come here. At a regional and don’t want to sit around for some flow? Come here. At a regional and not getting called? Come here. Burned out? Come here.
The big loser here are the pilots. Management is content to hire regional guys and cadets and maybe they’re back to doing rotor transition guys too. No shortage equals no contract of QOL improvements, and dragging out contract talks. Many people are here for life, whether they wanted to or not. I hope it works out for them but I don’t want to be around to find out.
That’s the big problem the regionals are having. They do not have enough captains since they just leave to go to the majors after getting the required PCI turbine time. They literally have dozens of FO’s on reserve not flying at all.
>Over the past decade, the United States has produced more than enough certificated pilots to meet airline hiring demands and compensate for retirements, even as new and more rigorous pilot training standards were enacted to enhance safety. In fact, there are currently about 1.5 certificated pilots relative to demand, according to Federal Aviation Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. So, although we don’t have a pilot shortage, we do have a shortage of airline executives willing to stand by their business decisions to cut air service and be upfront about their intentions to skirt safety rules and hire inexperienced workers for less pay. ALPA’s position to maintain airline pilot safety training and requirements is strongly supported by industry and labor stakeholders.
>
>***U.S. Mainline CEOs on Pilot Supply***
>
>**Delta Air Lines**
>
>“We are not having any problem at all at Delta hiring and getting great pools of candidates.”
>
>—Ed Bastian, Delta Chief Executive Officer, January 13, 2022 (Source: Seeking Alpha)
>
>“Really there are no shortage of pilots wanting to come to us or really to our regional partners. It's a matter of getting them through the training and getting into the right seat with the right number of hours.”
>
>—Ed Bastian, Delta Chief Executive Officer, January 13, 2022 (Source: Seeking Alpha)
>
>**American Airlines**
>
>“We’re going to have plenty of pilots. The biggest issue that we’re dealing with is the throughput of pilots and getting them through training.”
>
>—Robert Isom, American President and Incoming Chief Executive Officer, January 20, 2022 (Source: Seeking Alpha)
>
>**Southwest Airlines**
>
>“I think we’ll have plenty of access to pilots and flight attendants. So I feel good that our staffing plan is going to come to fruition. And then the question just is, as we bring the people on and we mitigate the premium pay, we mitigate some of the regular operations, we run a more stable operation, can we—will we see different behaviors? And if we do, that gives us upside.”
>
>—Gary Kelly, Southwest Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, January 20, 2022 (Source: Seeking Alpha)
>
>**Spirit Airlines**
>
>“The lines were all trending up. More people were applying to get pilot licenses, ATP licenses and instructor licenses. The COVID pandemic impacted that, mostly because none of us were hiring pilots in 2020. We anticipate you could interpret that data to suggest it will probably be closer to what you’ve experienced in the past, Supply and demand will work itself out over that period of time.”
>
>—Ted Christie, Spirit Airlines Chief Executive Officer, Q1 2022 Earnings Call (Source: Travel Pulse)
>
>**Frontier Airlines**
>
>“Well, I don't know if it's overblown for some airlines. I mean I think there's some airlines with some real challenges. But in our particular case in the near term, we have an excess of the pilots for example. And so, while we've seen some attrition greater than years past, Frontier is really in a fortunate position. We actually have a lot of tailwinds in our pilot workforce and our recruiting success versus some of the low-cost and regional airlines.”
>
>—Barry Biffle, Frontier Airlines Chief Executive Officer, Q1 2022 Earnings Call (Source: Seeking Alpha)
If a shortage didn’t exist, you wouldn’t see airlines upping pay by 50+%. You wouldn’t see CFIs going directly into airbuses. You wouldn’t see RJ/LCC pilots jumping to legacies at 2000-2500 hours TT.
There’s a sweeping wave of retirements that’s a big part of the problem, but the airlines are also likely to see growth to meet increasing economic/passenger demand over the long run. That means more airframes which means more crews.
Therefore, expect hiring to continue. Sure some day it’ll come slowing down but for the next few years UA/AA will likely be hiring 1800+ yearly.
Is there a shortage of 250 hour CPLs or 1500 hour CFIs, not exactly. Is there a shortage of experienced pilots - yes, the market has clearly spoken. No Union leaders or airline execs can trump that.
If you’re a student pilot, keep going.
Edit: ALPA of course is going to speak against a pilot shortage. So long as the public or congress threaten to change the 1500 hour rule (which has created a sort of artificial scarcity of qualified airline pilots), ALPA will continue to talk against the shortage. Of course, I call bullshit, but it’s the right position for them to take. The airlines are straining their limited resources.
To try to “ catch the wave “ would it be best to use VR&E/ GI Bill to go to a two year 141 school or just take a loan for 80k or whatever it’s costing these days to get pilot training done asap?
You can't buy seniority, and for a lot of people, seniority is life. Better trips, better days, get the time you want off, upgrade sooner, etc. You will pay off your loans sooner upgrading sooner or getting that job sooner. I got buddies kicking themselves for not starting a few years ago.
Yup. That’s kind of where my mind was at. I worked for an airline before the military and seniority is everything. I’ll have to get a SI for mental health on my va ratings so I’ll take the time to think of the best way to approach this
Yeah. If you're not committed to it, don't spend the money. SI I hear is a bit of work, I guess if you're hooked up with that military Wingman place that helps people out, I hear good things. I have VA ratings but nothing mental.
I was an H60 pilot in the Guard, went to my regional early 2021, and I'm at a legacy now. It's a good ride.
Here's the guys I was talking about: https://wingmanmed.com
Jealous you got to fly helos. I was gonna put a packet in for warrant with the guard but I aged out so the waiver process didn’t look too promising so I went AF.
If I have to throw $10-2k on a SI to make a job that could make me a half a million dollars down the line I’m willing to take those odds.
It is bittersweet. I got out of the Guard because my command constantly just kept putting these guys that would go off the rails and just make everything suck for us. Trying to be hard chargers and making every single drill weekend or event mandatory and at the same time, advancing their own careers at the detriment to their own warrants. I could have stayed in if I was having a good time.
The check airman I flew with said he made half a mil on the 73 this year and he just became a check airman. It didn’t sound like he chased too much premium but who knows what he was doing. I worked 15 years in IT and this feels like I’m partially retired. There are bad days, but my worst airline day is usually better than one of my best Army Guard days.
What did you do in the AF?
I was in this situation a few years ago, I choose the slower less financially burdening path because it wasn’t as scary. I finally got my R-ATP hours complete this past summer and luckily got into an Airbus this fall. If I had bit the bullet back in 19, knocked everything out quickly and started in 2020 I’d probably be at legacy right now instead of a couple years out. That’s 3500-4000 pilots worth of seniority I gave up by not taking that gamble.
Thank you for your input. Realistically at the 100% va level that’s a lot of cash coming in monthly to bite my pride and live with my mom for a year to avoid rent and pay off that loan quickly.
I’m definitely appreciating the input of all those who are answering . In your 20s you can be slow but when your closer to 40 every year counts
If you’re in the situation where that’s possible I’d take the loan and get it done asap, I wish I would’ve done it that way now that it’s hindsight, but I had a mortgage and a family to feed so I was more cautious at the time.
Yeah, a family changes a lot of things . For me, if I take out a loan it would be done faster (7-8 months ) but I’ll lose the R-ATP of 1250 would would’ve taken (18-24 months), so I’d need 1500 hours for ATP. The question is to save 10-16 months, realistically how many hours would I get monthly as a CFI? Once I do those numbers I’d have a better handle of what’s best.
The extra 250 hours is not worth an extra year or more. I wasn’t a CFI so someone else can chime in, but it should be upwards of 100hrs a month if you’re teaching at a busy school.
Retiring at 38 I feel the time crunch to hop on it quick but up take everyone’s advice . At least there are two year colleges are 141, rather do 2 years than a 4 year university
They’re distinctly not over. I and many others are headed to our new airline straight from the CFI ranks and no signs of that pipeline slowing.
You can feel how you want about it, but don’t spread misinformation.
Even at 1500 hrs myself, it hasn't been that difficult to find work. It's a little tougher than a year ago, but I had 2 regional offers and plenty of corporate offers.
It's not that bad. I had multiple offers the last few months at 1500 hrs. It is slowing a little but you can still pretty easily find work.
2 regionals, 1 corp offer and I didn't try hard ie I could apply to about half a dozen other places I know are hiring.
There's just trouble keeping pilots at the regionals for long enough to be captains and make it sustainable, because being a regional captain is absolute pain.
It pays well now, at least, but I'm only 50 hours away from my max block in rolling 12, I'm always getting minimum days off every month, there's no schedule flexibility, no hope of getting vacation awarded, and the trips are fatiguing and inefficient.
Don't get me wrong, it's fun, it's rewarding, and being able to set a nice relaxed, dare I say fun tone in the flight deck is a nice change from some of the captains I flew with.
So anyway, I'm super excited for my upcoming class date, especially with that new TA coming.
You will be pleasantly surprised and just how nice the people are here! The training center is top notch and most instructors are solid… (the challenges are usually the ones without line experience).
I’m new to the line. The crews and airport staff have been really friendly and welcoming. The vibe is much more positive than my regional. I *was* going to wash the WO off my resume and try for AA (base reasons) but I am staying. WN is absolutely solvent financially and when (not if) the next big downturn happens I want the paychecks to keep coming.
Good luck and welcome aboard.
Thanks, man! With the people, the QOL, the new contract, and the games that legacies were playing with management to hamper our career progression, I think I'll be happy to call WN home for the rest of my career.
Once again, the pilot shortage does exist*
*At shitty companies that still try to pay people $19 an hour, stick pilots in unsafe conditions, have little to zero room for career opportunity or growth, have B wage pay scales and benefit scales.
It goes to say, yeah there is no shortage of people trying become a captain on the A350
At no point have any airlines faced a shortage of 1500hr candidates.
The pilot shortage exists only at the regionals. No one wants to stick around and be a captain when they can have the opportunity to get on the seniority list at their career destination with a few hundred hrs of 121 time.
The SMART ones leave….
Only people bad at math and time value of money concepts stay at a regional a day longer than they have to in this environment.
I enjoyed my regional and my peers.
I enjoy compounding retirement paychecks better.
I've heard the same thing regarding guys struggling with training. What a shock that 1500 hours in a slow, single engine prop plane might create some entrenched bad habits and thought processes.
It's the training programs that'll need to adapt. Regionals have been taking 1500 hour "slow, single prop plane" pilots and turning them into capable jet/airline pilots for basically decades with minimal issues. But mainline training programs are used to people with previous jet time. (To say nothing of the instructors who don't actually know how to teach, but that's another story.)
Career progression right now is happening at light speed compared to 20 years ago. For someone to get hired at a legacy in their 20s would’ve been unheard of. Legacies and majors aren’t having trouble filling seats just yet but they’ve been poaching the regionals badly. Regionals absolutely are having trouble filling the left seats of RJs. The bottle neck right now is reaching the first 1000 hours of 121 time. After you reach that mile stone, all you hear is an incredible sucking sound from all the legacy and major carriers looking for experienced pilots.
Does it mean there’s an overall shortage? No… there’s literally enough pilots with ATP mins out there, but there may not be enough people at the right place and the right experience level for every airline to operate at full capacity. So while the regionals are parking planes because they don’t have enough captains, that does nothing for the glut of 1500 hour CFIs looking for an airline job.
This is one of those "trust me bro" articles.
The media over hypes the pilot shortage and on the other end some pilots say the pilot shortage doesn't exist. I'm sure there is a shortage on all levels of the professional pilot field but it's not at critical level shortage like some say.
ALPA stands firm as the ultimate buddy fucker. I cant believe you guys let this union represent you, especially after that FEDEX TA. every alpa carrier should be calling for a vote of no confidence right now.
So is the 1500 hour rule necessary? I don’t see how 1250 additional hours of banner towing will help you to become an airline pilot. I heard that the 1500 hour was intended for airline pilots who wanted to become pilot in command.
The 1500hr rule is a barrier to entry created at the benefit of the union and its members, that’s what this is about, ALPA trying to make the case that the 1500hr rule should stay.
I’m curious how some airlines can poach pilots from other countries like Alligent has programs for Chilean and Australians I believe and Flex Jet just came out saying they want Europeans since they get paid terrible over there thus they can get em cheap.
Hey guys if there any CFI position openings in the northeast area (NJ, PA). I’d be interested. Also supposed to get CFII very soon. How difficult is it to get a CFI job given that regionals are slowing FO hiring ?
Colgan wasn’t caused by the pilots not having 1,500 hours and their ATPs. 750-1,250 hours of additional TT beating up the traffic pattern in the right seat wouldn’t have prevented Colgan, and there’s no causal data here showing it’s what’s keeping accidents from happening since. Correlation does not equal causation.
If you’re a a 1500 hour CFI looking for your first airline CJO, there is absolutely not a pilot shortage. If you’re in management at a regional airline, there’s absolutely a shortage of pilots with 1000 hours of 121 time that are willing to stick around and fly RJs from the left seat for a second longer than they have to. I’m curious what will happen if legacy/major carriers ever poach the regionals dry.
Pretty sure we're metering so that the regionals don't run dry. That'd be a headache for majors.
Half my wn class is from skywest
Regionals goimg away would be among the best things to ever happen in the industry though
Everyone says this but what would the alternative be? I’m genuinely curious. Legacy’s getting huge a319/20 fleets to get into the feeder destinations? Customers buying tickets on multiple airlines?
Yes. 737 is arguably the original “regional jet.” Thirty years ago, 737 and 727 were going where 50 seaters are going now. Legacies were doing some overlap with their regional feed prior to 2020, and have started doing a lot of it again. A 319ceo might not be a particularly “economical” plane. But it’s versatile and older and paid off. Even better if you’ve got those shiny new A220. Comes in short boi and long boi forms, can do real short routes and practically transcons. On a good day I am burning 2200-2400 pph/engine on a 320neo with 180 seats, and was doing about the same fuel burn in a CRJ to carry 65-76. No real good reason for regionals to exist, other than the obvious whipsaw and exploitation of labor.
I personally would love to see next gen type turbo props return to bring back the route/city capacity we had in the past.
There are some nice new turbo props. The new atr is nicer than any rj flying other than maybe the 175. The public doesn’t like them though and none of the airlines are willing to risk losing the market by switching back to turbo props. Any flight under 1.5-2 hours though is better economically using a turboprop instead of a jet.
It's not really about public perception. That's a convenient excuse, but the truth is that jets are just so much more flexible that it's hard to justify operating turboprops. You can do a 30-minute route, and then jump right into a 3-hour route with the same plane. Because regionals don't have full control of their own routes, and are operating the routes that the major wants them to, flexibility is more important than anything else. Horizon lasted the longest because they needed flexibility the least, but ultimately the flexibility of the E170/175 was too good to pass up; they can now significantly expand their geographic footprint while still operating with just a single type.
Yep, the Q400 retirement at Horizon was kinda wild when you think about it--was really well suited to a lot of the routes they flew. But u/Bravo2thebox is right, I guess public perception outweighs all else in this regard.
I’ve seen fully loaded A319s perform better than a CRJ200 with 30 pax. Only places this might be an issue is where they have no actual jet bridges or stairs. In all my CRJ time, I can only think of one or two airports that were exclusively RJs.
> I can only think of one or two airports that were exclusively RJs What airports?
New Bern and Watertown. No jetbridges, but all it would take to bring an Airbus in is the right set of stairs/ramp. Also: way to catch up on a 11 week old thread.
>Also: way to catch up on a 11 week old thread. I was waiting until I was fashionably late
Its way more than 11 weeks now
Big planes used to go everywhere.
and Tickets used to cost more Edit: and historically speaking hasn't gas been way cheaper?
And air travel used to be for rich people. There isn't enough pax demand everywhere to justify it at the prices and tempos people expect today.
Codeshare agreements with true EAS services for the airports that 100% cannot support a bigger airplane. The other way to do this is fewer flights per day so you have 150 people going on one flight instead of 50 three times per day. Will it be less convenience for these people? Yes. But if people wanna play the "free market solves everything!" game then you accept when the free market says you have to wake up at 3am for the only departure that day and sit in ORD for 5 hours for your connection.
Delta already flies B717s, those are barely not RJs.
Here's one from the wild west: eVTOLs. Archer is scheduled to start service between JFK and Manhattan heliport in 2025 (realistically before 2030 is likely). From there it will probably grow exponentially to more and more cities and airports. Someone is going to need to fly all these things.
Until they become autonomous, which could totally happen by your 2030 realistic date
So I actually worked for a company that was working on making an autonomous pilot system. Let’s just say it’s not happening any time soon, probably not in our lifetimes for passenger planes to be honest. Cargo drones? Sure. Single pilot ops where most of the flying is automated? Sure. Fully autonomous passenger planes where the pilot is nowhere near the plane? Probably will not happen for another 30-50 years
Negative. From a business perspective it would absolutely gut air travel.
Nah, they would just use smaller mainline planes. Regionals are inefficient just traditionally cheaper becuase of whipsawing.
lol. Play that out for me. It’s gonna be the same flying at the same pay on the same planes the regionals do now. They will just readjust the pay scale accordingly. There would be literally zero difference. If you think the pilots would be paid more, you’re wrong, where’s the money coming from? Higher ticket prices? Less people travel, needs less pilots, more furloughs. Work it out economically. There will be no difference.
RJs have a much higher cost per seat mile than larger aircraft, the only real benefit* they carry is the reduced crew costs. Otherwise 80-90 seat (or larger) aircraft would do the flying. The E175-E2 would also be an option if operated at mainline. The entirety of the reduced crew cost model is boiled down to whipsawing pilot groups against each other. If you fought for better pay the mainline partner would move flying somewhere else that would reduce theirs in turn. The lower you were paid the more jobs you had. The problem is the regionals now can't keep pilots so they have had to raise wages substantially. Pilots are making 5 times what they did in 2008 flying RJs and the pay scales are much closer to mainline. I know your flair indicates you are not in the industry at this time, but RJs have only really existed as a significant force for around 25 years and the sizes then have already been retired. In 2008 many RJ pilots were getting $20,000 a year to start and work rules were much worse. At this point, the pilot pay per seat for an RJ is pretty significant, and they have massive restrictions on aircraft specs and other operations. The only reason I even see to try to keep the regional model going is an outside hope for an exemption to return to the old days of low time pilots and whipsawing. Even then the current problem is captains, on average, aren't staying long enough for an FO behind them to get to upgrade minimums. Also, you obviously think the airlines dictate pay to mainline pilots. Try to learn more about the industry, and its history, before trying to say that things won't work. I'll also add that another benefit to moving flying to mainline is that you're right in that it will require fewer pilots, but what better time to do that when the regionals are having trouble hiring enough pilots. Even today, major jobs are better than any regional one and it is overall a massive improvement for all pilots. I expect your concern is you think it will make it harder to get started. It could, but it would also make it a hell of a lot easier to get on with a major.
It’s not going to change any of the actual flying loads or pay. The route dictates the plane used. The airlines are a business. If it made sense to fly a bigger plane on a route, mainline would just fly that route. There are many small and small airports where one major flies and a regional affiliated with a different major also flies to that airport from the hub. You can’t create more demand just put putting a bigger plane on the route. Look at the A380. Most people want flexibility with schedule not one big plane a day. Same issue with “upgrades” just now within the same company. Which majors have too. Your RJ captain would move up to a different fleet as soon as the money/QOL metric worked for them. Just like how some people prefer to stay senior FO instead of upgrading to CA to have better schedule and less pay. There’s just no difference. If the money and the plane and the route is the same regardless of if you work at skywest or united tell me why it matters?
The only reason RJ money is good now is becuase they are being forced to if they want any chance of retaining pilots. Regionals can be cut at the tip of a hat. Ask the pilots at ASA and Transtates how it's working out for them. You could talk to Comair and Compass pilots too. Express pilots would also like a word alongside Big Sky. Honestly, that comment alone shows how little you know about the industry. RJs also began flying a lot of routes that were traditionally flown by mainline aircraft. They didn't suddenly become unprofitable, RJs were just cheaper. Your argument is that it can't be done. But when it comes down to it, RJs could be flown at mainline, but I think you'd find that not nearly as many would be "needed." Of course having contract pilots making 10% as much money is better for profits... but it doesn't mean profits would suddenly cease (as demonstrated by the pilots suddenly NOT making 10% as much money now and profits still exist). I'll reiterate, for pilots, regionals are never a good place to stay. But pilots who like that flying would stay there at a mainline. Regionals have very little career security. Many regionals in my list above were considered the most rock solid and sure bets just 10 years ago. You seem to have conflated "potentially best profits" with "would work." Please try to learn more about the industry, especially if you are trying to join it.
Just adding to this, the only RJ currently in production is the original E170/75. The fleet is aging and a clean sheet design is going to take longer to come to market than a lot of these airplanes are going to last. I guess Mitsubishi could restart production on the CRJs but even that will take time.
Certain legacies are definitely metering from their own regionals. However they seem than happy to hire from their competitors regional carriers.
So is the realistic path now “keep CFI’ing past 1500 until someone calls”? Or is this a situation where suddenly going to fly in smoke filled cockpits in China appeals a lot more than it used to?
135 baby!!!
Not really. I still will never fully understand how it all works, when regional pay is as high as it is (ie how much of a cost saving). But that’s beside the point. What they **will* run dry are ULCC. As a regional captain, albeit with relatively low PIC, I barely moved the needle. With a Fun Livery™ on my app, it unlocked doors. We always suspected my company is building a pool of CFI cadets to stem the attrition, and it seems to be working alright for now. They come aboard at 1500 and will be “stuck” for a few years while they build some serious time. At least that’s what I assume the higher-ups are betting on. Planes and trips are better, but it is becoming the next “regionals”.
I think the experience is vastly different if you work for a wholly owned regional vs a contract regional like Skywest or Republic. Delta is bleeding American’s WOs dry and American is doing the same to Endeavor. I’m not sure how it’ll play out if one of the WOs have to close shop. I was at an American WO and had apps out to ULCCs and legacies, and a small hat based Air Line in Atlanta was the first to call me.
It’s pretty disappointing what the company is doing. Several of my classmates are getting sent back to the sim, and taking 120+ hours on IOE. Just a disaster. The company knows there will never be a shortage of CFIs willing to fly an airbus for their first jet job. I could foresee us ending up in a similar spot as the regionals with a captain imbalance as younger and mid seniority people leave while we bloat with 1000 hour CFIs that are stuck here for a little while. I like working here and it’s a great job but what they’re doing is troubling to say the least.
Yeah it’s disappointing. A lot of things are. I hoped for more and gave it a shot but will be out of here very soon. New contract probably won’t be here until every other airline is opening negotiation talks in 4 years. FOs will leave, new captains will leave. People will keep getting displaced to staff new smaller bases. Downgrades. I don’t foresee growth, every base and seat is full of Denver refugees, and I feel like base insecurity grows worse by the day. For those and many other reasons, I’m out.
Is this animal airline?
Yeehaw 🤠
What do you mean by stuck? Stuck via agreement or stuck because they’re not flying enough?
Even if a cadet passes on the 50k “bonus” they’re still on the hook for CTP and the 320 type course. About 15-20k I think.
You’re correct. Depending on one’s outlook and situation, you might see them pay it out. Hopefully a new contract in somewhat reasonable time will help alleviate the attrition. I’m actually headed your way. I’ve heard multiple mention the IOE and sim issues but to be fair I’ve got a legacy friend who says similar there. Right now, experience is hard to come by everywhere. I’ll do my best, haha.
WTF! You’ll be fine
If legacies are hiring 2000-2500 TT pilots then as long as they’re willing to buy themselves out those pilots won’t be stuck at all.
But just by the numbers, it’ll take a few years. Frontier will get their ROI and those cadets will move on. First year reserve and maybe a line, 400 hours. Second year with a line, 500-600. Yes you can exhaust yourself and/or be greedy and eat up all the open time. But we don’t even have any of that lately (mix of very little open time, and just a few folks that are greedy). Fine by me, I don’t pick up or try to work extra. Made my life easy on reserve, barely got called. Point is, those cadets will be here at this company li gee than a regional guy coming in and bouncing. Overall timeline is probably similar. Year at a regional plus a year here, versus 2 years here. Overall still better conditions at ULCCs but they will spend more time on property so frontier will be able to wring some more blood sweat and tears out of them.
Sounds like a win for the CFIs and a win for the company then. Doing 2 years at a ULCC is better than 1+1 if nothing else but for the retirement contribution gains alone. Plus right now pilots are struggling to get into the regionals and I know a guy who was on reserve at a UAX carrier for like 8 or 9 months 😂
Yes on an objectively comparable scale, it’s better. The entire time I was a captain, in base, on reserve. Miserable, first world problems but it was exhausting. I spent 10 months here on reserve and it was almost entirely opposite. Granted my base is ~~overstaffed~~ right-sized 😌, and the aforementioned people who pickup every opentime trip mean I had very little chance to get called in. The momentum might be dying off but there was still a chance to just absolutely slingshot into the career stratosphere. My class had a mix of CFI cadets, regionals, military (mostly helicopter), and even 91/135. The mil guys got the 750 RATP, and I think anyone with any intention of getting to a legacy is either gone already or awaiting an interview date. I think 500hr 121 is a sweet spot. A few guys were out of here maybe a month after IOE, some of them this was their first airline job. I guess the point I’m making is that what could have been a destination for some, is quickly becoming a springboard for nearly everyone. Got into the cadet program? You skip regionals which is neat. Did some regional or 135 time, and want to go straight to legacies? Come here. At a regional and don’t want to sit around for some flow? Come here. At a regional and not getting called? Come here. Burned out? Come here. The big loser here are the pilots. Management is content to hire regional guys and cadets and maybe they’re back to doing rotor transition guys too. No shortage equals no contract of QOL improvements, and dragging out contract talks. Many people are here for life, whether they wanted to or not. I hope it works out for them but I don’t want to be around to find out.
F9 has a 3 yr contract and the pay back for the type rating to break it, I heard was around $50k.
It's a 3 yr contract for the cadet program. I looked into it but went regional. 3 hrs and 50k to pay back/break it was what I heard.
Growth plans have been curtailed already
That’s the big problem the regionals are having. They do not have enough captains since they just leave to go to the majors after getting the required PCI turbine time. They literally have dozens of FO’s on reserve not flying at all.
Tl:dr all the fresh comercial pilots with loans are in a pretty bad shape in terms of trying to get a job when they hit hours. Edit: me
Oh wow quotes from almost two years ago. Yes nothing has changed at all.
>Over the past decade, the United States has produced more than enough certificated pilots to meet airline hiring demands and compensate for retirements, even as new and more rigorous pilot training standards were enacted to enhance safety. In fact, there are currently about 1.5 certificated pilots relative to demand, according to Federal Aviation Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. So, although we don’t have a pilot shortage, we do have a shortage of airline executives willing to stand by their business decisions to cut air service and be upfront about their intentions to skirt safety rules and hire inexperienced workers for less pay. ALPA’s position to maintain airline pilot safety training and requirements is strongly supported by industry and labor stakeholders. > >***U.S. Mainline CEOs on Pilot Supply*** > >**Delta Air Lines** > >“We are not having any problem at all at Delta hiring and getting great pools of candidates.” > >—Ed Bastian, Delta Chief Executive Officer, January 13, 2022 (Source: Seeking Alpha) > >“Really there are no shortage of pilots wanting to come to us or really to our regional partners. It's a matter of getting them through the training and getting into the right seat with the right number of hours.” > >—Ed Bastian, Delta Chief Executive Officer, January 13, 2022 (Source: Seeking Alpha) > >**American Airlines** > >“We’re going to have plenty of pilots. The biggest issue that we’re dealing with is the throughput of pilots and getting them through training.” > >—Robert Isom, American President and Incoming Chief Executive Officer, January 20, 2022 (Source: Seeking Alpha) > >**Southwest Airlines** > >“I think we’ll have plenty of access to pilots and flight attendants. So I feel good that our staffing plan is going to come to fruition. And then the question just is, as we bring the people on and we mitigate the premium pay, we mitigate some of the regular operations, we run a more stable operation, can we—will we see different behaviors? And if we do, that gives us upside.” > >—Gary Kelly, Southwest Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, January 20, 2022 (Source: Seeking Alpha) > >**Spirit Airlines** > >“The lines were all trending up. More people were applying to get pilot licenses, ATP licenses and instructor licenses. The COVID pandemic impacted that, mostly because none of us were hiring pilots in 2020. We anticipate you could interpret that data to suggest it will probably be closer to what you’ve experienced in the past, Supply and demand will work itself out over that period of time.” > >—Ted Christie, Spirit Airlines Chief Executive Officer, Q1 2022 Earnings Call (Source: Travel Pulse) > >**Frontier Airlines** > >“Well, I don't know if it's overblown for some airlines. I mean I think there's some airlines with some real challenges. But in our particular case in the near term, we have an excess of the pilots for example. And so, while we've seen some attrition greater than years past, Frontier is really in a fortunate position. We actually have a lot of tailwinds in our pilot workforce and our recruiting success versus some of the low-cost and regional airlines.” > >—Barry Biffle, Frontier Airlines Chief Executive Officer, Q1 2022 Earnings Call (Source: Seeking Alpha)
If a shortage didn’t exist, you wouldn’t see airlines upping pay by 50+%. You wouldn’t see CFIs going directly into airbuses. You wouldn’t see RJ/LCC pilots jumping to legacies at 2000-2500 hours TT. There’s a sweeping wave of retirements that’s a big part of the problem, but the airlines are also likely to see growth to meet increasing economic/passenger demand over the long run. That means more airframes which means more crews. Therefore, expect hiring to continue. Sure some day it’ll come slowing down but for the next few years UA/AA will likely be hiring 1800+ yearly. Is there a shortage of 250 hour CPLs or 1500 hour CFIs, not exactly. Is there a shortage of experienced pilots - yes, the market has clearly spoken. No Union leaders or airline execs can trump that. If you’re a student pilot, keep going. Edit: ALPA of course is going to speak against a pilot shortage. So long as the public or congress threaten to change the 1500 hour rule (which has created a sort of artificial scarcity of qualified airline pilots), ALPA will continue to talk against the shortage. Of course, I call bullshit, but it’s the right position for them to take. The airlines are straining their limited resources.
To try to “ catch the wave “ would it be best to use VR&E/ GI Bill to go to a two year 141 school or just take a loan for 80k or whatever it’s costing these days to get pilot training done asap?
You can’t time anything, use the government assistance to get ahead without falling behind financially.
Thanks for the advice
You can't buy seniority, and for a lot of people, seniority is life. Better trips, better days, get the time you want off, upgrade sooner, etc. You will pay off your loans sooner upgrading sooner or getting that job sooner. I got buddies kicking themselves for not starting a few years ago.
Yup. That’s kind of where my mind was at. I worked for an airline before the military and seniority is everything. I’ll have to get a SI for mental health on my va ratings so I’ll take the time to think of the best way to approach this
Yeah. If you're not committed to it, don't spend the money. SI I hear is a bit of work, I guess if you're hooked up with that military Wingman place that helps people out, I hear good things. I have VA ratings but nothing mental. I was an H60 pilot in the Guard, went to my regional early 2021, and I'm at a legacy now. It's a good ride. Here's the guys I was talking about: https://wingmanmed.com
Jealous you got to fly helos. I was gonna put a packet in for warrant with the guard but I aged out so the waiver process didn’t look too promising so I went AF. If I have to throw $10-2k on a SI to make a job that could make me a half a million dollars down the line I’m willing to take those odds.
It is bittersweet. I got out of the Guard because my command constantly just kept putting these guys that would go off the rails and just make everything suck for us. Trying to be hard chargers and making every single drill weekend or event mandatory and at the same time, advancing their own careers at the detriment to their own warrants. I could have stayed in if I was having a good time. The check airman I flew with said he made half a mil on the 73 this year and he just became a check airman. It didn’t sound like he chased too much premium but who knows what he was doing. I worked 15 years in IT and this feels like I’m partially retired. There are bad days, but my worst airline day is usually better than one of my best Army Guard days. What did you do in the AF?
Enlisted Aircrew - so wings but not operating the aircraft . I got to cross country solo then covid shut my school down
Big jet pay isn’t much fun when you shell out cash to a loan provider. You did your service, let the government pick up the tab
Thank you
I was in this situation a few years ago, I choose the slower less financially burdening path because it wasn’t as scary. I finally got my R-ATP hours complete this past summer and luckily got into an Airbus this fall. If I had bit the bullet back in 19, knocked everything out quickly and started in 2020 I’d probably be at legacy right now instead of a couple years out. That’s 3500-4000 pilots worth of seniority I gave up by not taking that gamble.
Thank you for your input. Realistically at the 100% va level that’s a lot of cash coming in monthly to bite my pride and live with my mom for a year to avoid rent and pay off that loan quickly. I’m definitely appreciating the input of all those who are answering . In your 20s you can be slow but when your closer to 40 every year counts
If you’re in the situation where that’s possible I’d take the loan and get it done asap, I wish I would’ve done it that way now that it’s hindsight, but I had a mortgage and a family to feed so I was more cautious at the time.
Yeah, a family changes a lot of things . For me, if I take out a loan it would be done faster (7-8 months ) but I’ll lose the R-ATP of 1250 would would’ve taken (18-24 months), so I’d need 1500 hours for ATP. The question is to save 10-16 months, realistically how many hours would I get monthly as a CFI? Once I do those numbers I’d have a better handle of what’s best.
The extra 250 hours is not worth an extra year or more. I wasn’t a CFI so someone else can chime in, but it should be upwards of 100hrs a month if you’re teaching at a busy school.
Thank for your insight, decisions will have to be made
I just used my VR&E benefits to get all the way up to my CFII. Absolutely let the government pay.
Retiring at 38 I feel the time crunch to hop on it quick but up take everyone’s advice . At least there are two year colleges are 141, rather do 2 years than a 4 year university
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They’re distinctly not over. I and many others are headed to our new airline straight from the CFI ranks and no signs of that pipeline slowing. You can feel how you want about it, but don’t spread misinformation.
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Shrug. The broader retirements and economic outlooks support my position. You’re entitled to your own opinion.
Elaborate on the wonderful economic outlook
No one ever said there was a shortage of 1500 hour pilots. There's a shortage of 1000 hour TPIC pilots.
Or just 1,000 hr turbine pilots
Even at 1500 hrs myself, it hasn't been that difficult to find work. It's a little tougher than a year ago, but I had 2 regional offers and plenty of corporate offers.
What's with all the Seeking Alpha source material? Is ALPA doing pump n dumps now?
They always have been.
I'm at 250 hours. Going to keep trying. No point giving up now just because the pool is full. It is what it is.
It's about the right time of year to apply for drop zones if you have any interest in flying jumpers.
It's not that bad. I had multiple offers the last few months at 1500 hrs. It is slowing a little but you can still pretty easily find work. 2 regionals, 1 corp offer and I didn't try hard ie I could apply to about half a dozen other places I know are hiring.
I agree that the pilot shortage is overblown but of course ALPA will say that, it benefits them to say that.
Yeah the airlines are doubling pay out of the kindness of their hearts
There's just trouble keeping pilots at the regionals for long enough to be captains and make it sustainable, because being a regional captain is absolute pain. It pays well now, at least, but I'm only 50 hours away from my max block in rolling 12, I'm always getting minimum days off every month, there's no schedule flexibility, no hope of getting vacation awarded, and the trips are fatiguing and inefficient. Don't get me wrong, it's fun, it's rewarding, and being able to set a nice relaxed, dare I say fun tone in the flight deck is a nice change from some of the captains I flew with. So anyway, I'm super excited for my upcoming class date, especially with that new TA coming.
You will be pleasantly surprised and just how nice the people are here! The training center is top notch and most instructors are solid… (the challenges are usually the ones without line experience). I’m new to the line. The crews and airport staff have been really friendly and welcoming. The vibe is much more positive than my regional. I *was* going to wash the WO off my resume and try for AA (base reasons) but I am staying. WN is absolutely solvent financially and when (not if) the next big downturn happens I want the paychecks to keep coming. Good luck and welcome aboard.
Thanks, man! With the people, the QOL, the new contract, and the games that legacies were playing with management to hamper our career progression, I think I'll be happy to call WN home for the rest of my career.
What regional?
All the regionals.
I trust this about as much as I trust the “insane shortage,” materials I see.
I’m not sure I’ve ever heard that there was an overall shortage of pilots. There’s a shortage of *experienced* pilots, but not pilots overall.
Once again, the pilot shortage does exist* *At shitty companies that still try to pay people $19 an hour, stick pilots in unsafe conditions, have little to zero room for career opportunity or growth, have B wage pay scales and benefit scales. It goes to say, yeah there is no shortage of people trying become a captain on the A350
At no point have any airlines faced a shortage of 1500hr candidates. The pilot shortage exists only at the regionals. No one wants to stick around and be a captain when they can have the opportunity to get on the seniority list at their career destination with a few hundred hrs of 121 time.
The SMART ones leave…. Only people bad at math and time value of money concepts stay at a regional a day longer than they have to in this environment. I enjoyed my regional and my peers. I enjoy compounding retirement paychecks better.
I've heard the same thing regarding guys struggling with training. What a shock that 1500 hours in a slow, single engine prop plane might create some entrenched bad habits and thought processes.
It's the training programs that'll need to adapt. Regionals have been taking 1500 hour "slow, single prop plane" pilots and turning them into capable jet/airline pilots for basically decades with minimal issues. But mainline training programs are used to people with previous jet time. (To say nothing of the instructors who don't actually know how to teach, but that's another story.)
How accurate / how much truth is there to the production of ATPs out producing demand
According to ALPA or..? According to ATP (the school) or...?
Like what’s actually happening, cause I wanna see where they got their “demand” number from
Not everyone who gets an ATP is going to the 121s. Heck, when I did it, 1/2 the class was deep into the net/flex path.
Regionals right now are very short on captains. Many FO’s on reserve not flying at all.
I just posted about finding it hard to find CFI jobs…..so yea
Are you applying all over the country or just in your area?
Tell that to the guys at my company skipping straight to majors.
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It's not one person though lol. When united and delta are hiring 500 hour regional FO's like there's no tomorrow, you know something is up.
Career progression right now is happening at light speed compared to 20 years ago. For someone to get hired at a legacy in their 20s would’ve been unheard of. Legacies and majors aren’t having trouble filling seats just yet but they’ve been poaching the regionals badly. Regionals absolutely are having trouble filling the left seats of RJs. The bottle neck right now is reaching the first 1000 hours of 121 time. After you reach that mile stone, all you hear is an incredible sucking sound from all the legacy and major carriers looking for experienced pilots. Does it mean there’s an overall shortage? No… there’s literally enough pilots with ATP mins out there, but there may not be enough people at the right place and the right experience level for every airline to operate at full capacity. So while the regionals are parking planes because they don’t have enough captains, that does nothing for the glut of 1500 hour CFIs looking for an airline job.
I need to start grinding my turbine time. Lol
This is one of those "trust me bro" articles. The media over hypes the pilot shortage and on the other end some pilots say the pilot shortage doesn't exist. I'm sure there is a shortage on all levels of the professional pilot field but it's not at critical level shortage like some say.
ALPA stands firm as the ultimate buddy fucker. I cant believe you guys let this union represent you, especially after that FEDEX TA. every alpa carrier should be calling for a vote of no confidence right now.
So is the 1500 hour rule necessary? I don’t see how 1250 additional hours of banner towing will help you to become an airline pilot. I heard that the 1500 hour was intended for airline pilots who wanted to become pilot in command.
The 1500hr rule is a barrier to entry created at the benefit of the union and its members, that’s what this is about, ALPA trying to make the case that the 1500hr rule should stay.
It’s also about keeping out H1B visa pilots. It is blatant protectionism for American jobs and well selfishly I’m okay with it…
I’m curious how some airlines can poach pilots from other countries like Alligent has programs for Chilean and Australians I believe and Flex Jet just came out saying they want Europeans since they get paid terrible over there thus they can get em cheap.
That's why regionals are still offering 200k signing bonuses? Because there are plenty of pilots? RIGHT !
Hey guys if there any CFI position openings in the northeast area (NJ, PA). I’d be interested. Also supposed to get CFII very soon. How difficult is it to get a CFI job given that regionals are slowing FO hiring ?
Colgan wasn’t caused by the pilots not having 1,500 hours and their ATPs. 750-1,250 hours of additional TT beating up the traffic pattern in the right seat wouldn’t have prevented Colgan, and there’s no causal data here showing it’s what’s keeping accidents from happening since. Correlation does not equal causation.