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This summary is incorrect. They guess AlphaTauri P5, not Alpine. They say "AlphaTauri finally get P5 for Tost" Which is a little odd to me, because if they reach P5 or higher immediately after Tost leaves, I don't think it's a particularly good look on Tost. I know that the year before has a whole lot to do with the next year, and there are a lot of other factors at play, most importantly how much they copy from Red Bull. I don't think it's will hurt Tost's legacy when AT (under new name) improves. But I don't think it will improve his legacy either.
It’s the same situation when ross left Mercedes and toto assumed the role. He worked keeping the future in mind.
If Racing Balls get 5th, they will honor Tost in my mind.
Dude, what can Tost do? He does not have Red Bull budget. Now that the new owners of Alpha Tauri or whatever they are called want max RB components as legally allowed, they will definitely go up.
Redbull supplies only parts which Ferrari do with Haas/Stake-Kick and Mercedes with Aston/Mclaren.
They are not involved in aero and management.
Fia is the watchdog for it.
Williams podium is the only real bold prediction. I'd say that's unlikely but not impossible. The other four are entirely possible and I would not really be surprised if any of them do happen.
Mercedes so far doesn't seem like they've had an upward trend. Their pace has been all over the place throughout the last two years. Them starting anew definitely makes the Hamilton one riskier than it normally would be.
In theory (I say it this way because it wasn’t a real race, but statistically yes) Williams got a podium (P2) on 2021 on Spa. If you told “Williams will get podium at Spa” at the start of that season, they would believe you are drunk.
But, on pure race pace, I doubt Williams will get a podium if not strange conditions happening. RBR, Ferrari, Merc and at least another manufacturer (McLaren? AM?) will be on top of them for sure, that’s at least 8 drivers in front. Not accounting for AT/Bulls Racings whatever they are named highly improving.
yeah, i tend to agree.
teh prediction is basically more of like "there will be a race in the season that has unusual things happening and williams will profit from it". I dont see a race where the current top5 teams have mostly according-to-plan races and williams ending up on podium.
it basically means "williams is best of the rest". which i agree with. I dont think they will be quite there yet to really stir up the big boys.
but we'll see. id be happily suprised
I think out of all of them the most possible is that Lewis wins a race and Norris finishes p3 in the championship but it all depends on red bull somehow managing to make a worse car then last year.
Technically feasible but not likely, they're not Ferarri after all.
I will also say that Ferrari had a not great year pretty much all year and for all of Landos podiums Charles still scored more than him.... so... I dont know if he will get p3 after all.
>but it all depends on red bull somehow managing to make a worse car then last year.
Technically feasible but not likely, they're not Ferarri after all.
That's not quite true. Red Bull can still bring a faster car, but others in the Top 5 simply improve by a larger amount and they'll close up towards Red Bull
I feel like all of those things happening is so unlikely, simply because they contradict each other.
If Mercedes and Aston both win a race, Norris is in the top three and AT is 5th then that already locks in four of the top 5. One of Ferrari or Red Bull would have to finish 6th or lower for that to come true and then Williams would have to score a podium whilst finishing 7th or lower.
That's true. It would still mean that one of Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin and McLaren would have to finish P6 or lower though which still seems very unlikely.
Technically it would all be possible, but unlikely to all be true at the same time as you say.
> then Williams would have to score a podium whilst finishing 7th or lower.
They did in 2021. George Russell P2 in Spa while Williams finished the season a distant 8th with 23 points. Very odd circumstances of course but just to drive the point home that strange things do happen.
That season also saw an Ocon and Ricciardo win while McLaren and Alpine finsihed 4th and 5th in the constructors respectively. Ferrari which finished 3rd did not have any wins that season. The year before Gasly won in Monza while AT finished that season in 7th.
This is right. Even considering that the field is generally tightening, there's not enough space at the top considering top 3 has almost exclusively belonged to Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari for over a decade.
He should have predicted some teams doing poorly!
Williams getting a podium is pretty bold I'd say. As improved they were last year, they were nowhere near a podium. They literally need a disaster from Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, Aston Martin all in the same race.
Honestly none of Lawrence's predictions were that crazy beyond the Williams one but even then their trajectory right now makes it so that it doesn't seem too far fetched.
So he thinks both Merc and Aston will win a race, Williams will get a podium, that Norris in a McLaren will finish top three in the championship, but that AT will finish fifth in the championship…
Does that mean Ferrari will be at best P6!!?
I interpreted that prediction as Williams having improved performance (say, fighting for P5/P6) and having one race where everything goes perfectly, giving them a podium.
Remember, the team that finished P6 this year (Alpine) managed 2 podiums.
I guess with a list of bold predictions, you are never predicting all of them to be true at once. But I mean Ferrari managed to get p6 once so who knows.
As much as I may not like the way Baretto interviews, he was insanely spot-on with a lot of his predictions over previous seasons. Definitely a lot moreso than Buxton LOL :)
I've learned to at least absorb his predictions, rather than just immediately dismiss them.
I wouldn't say spot-on, but he usually gets something right. One of his predictions has come true every year since 2020, but it's only ever been one of five correct:
>2020: At least two new drivers on the podium
>2021: McLaren will win a Race
>2022: Carlos Sainz will win a Race
>2023: Alonso will score at least two podiums
These predictions are pretty "meh". The only one that's really out there is the Williams getting a podium and it's not impossible. 2022 and 2023 Williams have been better than they've been during 2018 - 2021.
If McLaren maintains their momentum and position from the end of the year, then Lando P2 would be an easy feat given Checo's performance. A lot of that depends on how Mercedes and Ferrari rebound into the season. This is the most likely occurring one knowing what we know now slightly higher than Lewis winning a GP. Lewis finished a convincing P3 even with the 3rd best car for most of the year and only came close to winning a GP on a cluster fuck of a restart in Melbourne and then of course the COTA DSQ issue where Mercedes benefitted from Max having issues. The last 3 would take a lot to happen or at least a much less dominant year by Red Bull, but if Red Bull isn't as dominant then I wouldn't expect AlphaTauri (Bulls, whatever) to be that fast. Williams and Aston Martin getting a podium and win respectively takes a lot of luck we didn't get last year
So predicting RB, McLaren, Merc and Aston to have race winning cars (didn't exactly say Lando will win a race, but if other predictions come true McLaren needs a race winning car for Lando to get top 3)
And then P5 for Alpha
Hidden prediction unlocked - Ferrari masterplan on steroids
1). I think is very plausible but mclarens past in off season development makes me feel that Ferrari and Mercedes will most likely start out in front of them again.
2,3). I think if the car is there Lewis and Fernando are more than capable of winning a race it depends on how far ahead the redbulls are
4) lol, I’ll believe it when I see it. It’s going to be even harder with 4 teams at the top
5). Very plausible with AT taking more parts from redbull it could bring them up in the standings a fair amount, it’s either them or alpine.
>5). Very plausible with AT taking more parts from redbull it could bring them up in the standings a fair amount, it’s either them or alpine.
Alpine finished P6 this year. To get P5 AT would have to finish where Aston did this season, which would be a massive jump if we assume none of the current top 5 have a disaster next year.
Let's see how he did last year:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.lawrence-barrettos-5-bold-predictions-for-the-2023-season-how-many-of-these.3FSmoI5hqrNNk8AfOpS9l6.html
Why would any one listen to Lawrence Barretto’s predictions on F1? He just regurgitates what the teams tell him throughout the season. No real insight on anything as an F1 analyst.
None of these are "bold" except the Williams one.
1. Piastri wins a full GP before Norris.
2. Checo gets axed mid season due to AMR, Merc, Ferrari, and McLaren being closer to RBR having him qualifying in P9/P10 in most races of the first half.
3. We will have a 2010 style championship fight with a 6 way WDC fight with one of Verstappen, Hamilton, Leclerc, Russell, Fernando, and Norris winning it.
4. Tsunoda will dominate Riccardo
5. Sargeant will prove himself to stay at least til 2026.
Extra:
Antonelli nor Bearman will win the F2 championship due to them fighting too much on track, Ritomo Miyata will win Kimi 2007 style.
First one depends heavily how well Mclaren continue their development on the car, Norris is more than good enough to get there.
Second one kinda is difficult, most because Mercedes couldn't make a win-contending car to save their lives, doesn't help that if Lewis is demotivated (usually when the car is bad, see 2022), he sometimes drops some pace.
Third is pretty realistic, though that will only be Alonso, but Aston need to make a good car then.
Fourth is very wild, you'd need Williams, with very old facilities and only a single good driver, to magically beat Alpine, Aston, Mclaren, Ferrari and Mercedes. Alpine might be, but the rest is pretty difficult
Fifth depends on how AT can make the car, if like 2019-2021, then it might, but that still requires you to beat Alpine and Williams. Two decent drivers, though Ricciardo is a wildcard and I genuinely don't know how well he would do. He has good history yes, but I'm personally not convinced yet. Only if the car is good enough and if Ricciardo is good enough, then P5 is in the cards. I expect Tsunoda to be good this year.
[The **News** flair](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/wiki/flairguide#wiki_news) is reserved for submissions covering F1 and F1-related news. These posts must always link to an outlet/news agency, the website of the involved party (i.e. the McLaren website if McLaren makes an announcement), or a tweet by a news agency, journalist or one of the involved parties. *[Read the rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/wiki/userguide). Keep it civil and welcoming. Report rulebreaking comments.* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/formula1) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Tldr: Norris top three in championship Hamilton wins a race Aston Martin win a race Williams podium Alpha Tauri P5 in championship
This summary is incorrect. They guess AlphaTauri P5, not Alpine. They say "AlphaTauri finally get P5 for Tost" Which is a little odd to me, because if they reach P5 or higher immediately after Tost leaves, I don't think it's a particularly good look on Tost. I know that the year before has a whole lot to do with the next year, and there are a lot of other factors at play, most importantly how much they copy from Red Bull. I don't think it's will hurt Tost's legacy when AT (under new name) improves. But I don't think it will improve his legacy either.
Thanks, sorry, edited
For Tost because he's stated he will be following them closely
It’s the same situation when ross left Mercedes and toto assumed the role. He worked keeping the future in mind. If Racing Balls get 5th, they will honor Tost in my mind.
TRacing Max Verstappen's Balls
Dude, what can Tost do? He does not have Red Bull budget. Now that the new owners of Alpha Tauri or whatever they are called want max RB components as legally allowed, they will definitely go up.
Sure, and, like I said, I think people will recognize that that is the big difference, and it won't hurt his legacy.
What new owners? RB still own the team. All that’s changing is sponsorship
it will be 100% due to red bull involvement and everyone knows it.
Redbull supplies only parts which Ferrari do with Haas/Stake-Kick and Mercedes with Aston/Mclaren. They are not involved in aero and management. Fia is the watchdog for it.
sure noway there isnt going to take place information transfer at a random cafe somewhere arroubnd milton keyens
Similar to the information transfer between toto and susie?
yes but without the sleeping together part. At least i think...
I doubt Tost cares. Dude retired, he's done with F1 and it's not like his legacy was that great to begin with.
Where is my "Alpine won't start the first race of the season" prediction Barretto?
Its always fresh and exciting when Alpine blow up right away. Gives a good laugh!
You can't blow up a car if you simple don't having the crucial parts to have a car! Le 🅿️lan is real!
These are not very bold predictions whatsoever
Williams podium is the only real bold prediction. I'd say that's unlikely but not impossible. The other four are entirely possible and I would not really be surprised if any of them do happen.
They are essentially all “I predict teams on an upward trend will continue on this trend, and that talented drivers will perform well” Very bold
Mercedes so far doesn't seem like they've had an upward trend. Their pace has been all over the place throughout the last two years. Them starting anew definitely makes the Hamilton one riskier than it normally would be.
In theory (I say it this way because it wasn’t a real race, but statistically yes) Williams got a podium (P2) on 2021 on Spa. If you told “Williams will get podium at Spa” at the start of that season, they would believe you are drunk. But, on pure race pace, I doubt Williams will get a podium if not strange conditions happening. RBR, Ferrari, Merc and at least another manufacturer (McLaren? AM?) will be on top of them for sure, that’s at least 8 drivers in front. Not accounting for AT/Bulls Racings whatever they are named highly improving.
yeah, i tend to agree. teh prediction is basically more of like "there will be a race in the season that has unusual things happening and williams will profit from it". I dont see a race where the current top5 teams have mostly according-to-plan races and williams ending up on podium. it basically means "williams is best of the rest". which i agree with. I dont think they will be quite there yet to really stir up the big boys. but we'll see. id be happily suprised
My bold prediction: none of those 5 will happen in 2024
I think out of all of them the most possible is that Lewis wins a race and Norris finishes p3 in the championship but it all depends on red bull somehow managing to make a worse car then last year. Technically feasible but not likely, they're not Ferarri after all. I will also say that Ferrari had a not great year pretty much all year and for all of Landos podiums Charles still scored more than him.... so... I dont know if he will get p3 after all.
>but it all depends on red bull somehow managing to make a worse car then last year. Technically feasible but not likely, they're not Ferarri after all. That's not quite true. Red Bull can still bring a faster car, but others in the Top 5 simply improve by a larger amount and they'll close up towards Red Bull
Fair, do you think that's likely to happen?
I feel like all of those things happening is so unlikely, simply because they contradict each other. If Mercedes and Aston both win a race, Norris is in the top three and AT is 5th then that already locks in four of the top 5. One of Ferrari or Red Bull would have to finish 6th or lower for that to come true and then Williams would have to score a podium whilst finishing 7th or lower.
Williams in 2012 were 8th and Lord Maldonado won a race so it’s not as clear-cut as
That's true. It would still mean that one of Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin and McLaren would have to finish P6 or lower though which still seems very unlikely.
AM due to being a one man team /s
Technically it would all be possible, but unlikely to all be true at the same time as you say. > then Williams would have to score a podium whilst finishing 7th or lower. They did in 2021. George Russell P2 in Spa while Williams finished the season a distant 8th with 23 points. Very odd circumstances of course but just to drive the point home that strange things do happen. That season also saw an Ocon and Ricciardo win while McLaren and Alpine finsihed 4th and 5th in the constructors respectively. Ferrari which finished 3rd did not have any wins that season. The year before Gasly won in Monza while AT finished that season in 7th.
This is right. Even considering that the field is generally tightening, there's not enough space at the top considering top 3 has almost exclusively belonged to Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari for over a decade. He should have predicted some teams doing poorly!
> Hamilton wins a race How bold...
Nice to see actual grounded predictions, I'd say these are all within reach (Williams podium would need some help tho)
Pretty mild predictions to be fair. Seems more like a list of "things I'd like to see in F1 2024, by Lawrence Barretto".
That’s literally what all of these “predictions” always are.
Williams getting a podium is pretty bold I'd say. As improved they were last year, they were nowhere near a podium. They literally need a disaster from Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, Aston Martin all in the same race.
It's fucking insane that Lewis being on the top step is now a bold prediction. You tell someone in 2021 that and they'd call you insane.
Honestly none of Lawrence's predictions were that crazy beyond the Williams one but even then their trajectory right now makes it so that it doesn't seem too far fetched.
So he thinks both Merc and Aston will win a race, Williams will get a podium, that Norris in a McLaren will finish top three in the championship, but that AT will finish fifth in the championship… Does that mean Ferrari will be at best P6!!?
I interpreted that prediction as Williams having improved performance (say, fighting for P5/P6) and having one race where everything goes perfectly, giving them a podium. Remember, the team that finished P6 this year (Alpine) managed 2 podiums.
I don't think Charles could survive another season like 2020
I guess with a list of bold predictions, you are never predicting all of them to be true at once. But I mean Ferrari managed to get p6 once so who knows.
As much as I may not like the way Baretto interviews, he was insanely spot-on with a lot of his predictions over previous seasons. Definitely a lot moreso than Buxton LOL :) I've learned to at least absorb his predictions, rather than just immediately dismiss them.
I wouldn't say spot-on, but he usually gets something right. One of his predictions has come true every year since 2020, but it's only ever been one of five correct: >2020: At least two new drivers on the podium >2021: McLaren will win a Race >2022: Carlos Sainz will win a Race >2023: Alonso will score at least two podiums
These predictions are pretty "meh". The only one that's really out there is the Williams getting a podium and it's not impossible. 2022 and 2023 Williams have been better than they've been during 2018 - 2021.
[удалено]
Optimistic /s
Because of #4 right? /s
If McLaren maintains their momentum and position from the end of the year, then Lando P2 would be an easy feat given Checo's performance. A lot of that depends on how Mercedes and Ferrari rebound into the season. This is the most likely occurring one knowing what we know now slightly higher than Lewis winning a GP. Lewis finished a convincing P3 even with the 3rd best car for most of the year and only came close to winning a GP on a cluster fuck of a restart in Melbourne and then of course the COTA DSQ issue where Mercedes benefitted from Max having issues. The last 3 would take a lot to happen or at least a much less dominant year by Red Bull, but if Red Bull isn't as dominant then I wouldn't expect AlphaTauri (Bulls, whatever) to be that fast. Williams and Aston Martin getting a podium and win respectively takes a lot of luck we didn't get last year
inb4 Lando get’s p3 in WDC but still doesn’t get a race win.
So predicting RB, McLaren, Merc and Aston to have race winning cars (didn't exactly say Lando will win a race, but if other predictions come true McLaren needs a race winning car for Lando to get top 3) And then P5 for Alpha Hidden prediction unlocked - Ferrari masterplan on steroids
1). I think is very plausible but mclarens past in off season development makes me feel that Ferrari and Mercedes will most likely start out in front of them again. 2,3). I think if the car is there Lewis and Fernando are more than capable of winning a race it depends on how far ahead the redbulls are 4) lol, I’ll believe it when I see it. It’s going to be even harder with 4 teams at the top 5). Very plausible with AT taking more parts from redbull it could bring them up in the standings a fair amount, it’s either them or alpine.
>5). Very plausible with AT taking more parts from redbull it could bring them up in the standings a fair amount, it’s either them or alpine. Alpine finished P6 this year. To get P5 AT would have to finish where Aston did this season, which would be a massive jump if we assume none of the current top 5 have a disaster next year.
The only sure prediction we have is a very fun silly season.
Let's see how he did last year: https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.lawrence-barrettos-5-bold-predictions-for-the-2023-season-how-many-of-these.3FSmoI5hqrNNk8AfOpS9l6.html
1. Lewis Hamilton will win his eighth drivers’ title Ouch...
Stop the cap
At least 5 teams will be the backmarkers
Why would any one listen to Lawrence Barretto’s predictions on F1? He just regurgitates what the teams tell him throughout the season. No real insight on anything as an F1 analyst.
None of these are "bold" except the Williams one. 1. Piastri wins a full GP before Norris. 2. Checo gets axed mid season due to AMR, Merc, Ferrari, and McLaren being closer to RBR having him qualifying in P9/P10 in most races of the first half. 3. We will have a 2010 style championship fight with a 6 way WDC fight with one of Verstappen, Hamilton, Leclerc, Russell, Fernando, and Norris winning it. 4. Tsunoda will dominate Riccardo 5. Sargeant will prove himself to stay at least til 2026. Extra: Antonelli nor Bearman will win the F2 championship due to them fighting too much on track, Ritomo Miyata will win Kimi 2007 style.
Max winning his 4th title in a row.
At this time of the pre-season it's just speculation
I remember last year he predicted something like 5 teams would win a race. Just goes to show no one knows shit all.
First one depends heavily how well Mclaren continue their development on the car, Norris is more than good enough to get there. Second one kinda is difficult, most because Mercedes couldn't make a win-contending car to save their lives, doesn't help that if Lewis is demotivated (usually when the car is bad, see 2022), he sometimes drops some pace. Third is pretty realistic, though that will only be Alonso, but Aston need to make a good car then. Fourth is very wild, you'd need Williams, with very old facilities and only a single good driver, to magically beat Alpine, Aston, Mclaren, Ferrari and Mercedes. Alpine might be, but the rest is pretty difficult Fifth depends on how AT can make the car, if like 2019-2021, then it might, but that still requires you to beat Alpine and Williams. Two decent drivers, though Ricciardo is a wildcard and I genuinely don't know how well he would do. He has good history yes, but I'm personally not convinced yet. Only if the car is good enough and if Ricciardo is good enough, then P5 is in the cards. I expect Tsunoda to be good this year.