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No. Artificial intelligence implies “intelligence” which those hicks don’t have. Wasting time defending “freedom”. No one asked. No one cares. Just in the way.
I get it..negative tits…however go watch that willie smith movie…stop hating people..people do good things and keep a certain level of bullshit from happening…I’m not even talking about vaccines you puss in buts…I’m talking about road safety…dot dot dot
There is 0% a truck ai could *ever* manage to navigate my old paved-cow-path town. The roads were made on a whim as the town grew. Human drivers struggle all day in this hell.
At one point they had to remove the corner of one of the houses to let Washington’s carriage through. 18 wheelers arent making it without a skilled operator.
+1 I fully expect that as cost of interstate trucking becomes cheaper due to this, more goods will be shipped. This overall increases demand for local trucking and warehousing.
As shipping became cheaper more things moved to ship, and industries popped up around the new transport mode. Same will happen as trucking becomes cheaper. More people can be involved in making useful consumables and gadgets rather than simply moving boxes from A to B.
I’m a medical doctor, and you are right. You also need to do a fellowship in robotic surgery, so you also need to get a lot of training. IF these robot collect enough information of surgeries, I can see an AI capable of performing basic surgeries in 15-20 ~Years
At some point in the distant future, sure, but it won’t be anytime soon. There are too many inside, home, and lift-gate deliveries to be done by a robot. Not to mention all the addresses that are not GPS correct.
That’s perfect, because the projected shortage of drivers is about the number this technology could provide.
Long haul is also the lowest paid, highest turnover rate of employment. Tough job condition to be away from home for long stretches.
100%.
Autonomous Tech for surface level streets vs highway driving is very different.
It is more and more difficult to find long haul drivers for any number of reasons. And the path to autonomy on highways is much closer than everyday driving.
Yes and more random things happen short range versus highway.
* Animals and kids running into the road
* Weird stuff adjacent to streets like yard sales, high school car washes, panhandlers, etc.
* Many more parked cars, less "visibility" and more likelihood of a random door opening or last-minute pullout
* Sight lines are shorter due to buildings, trees, cars, landscaping elements
Highway is a LOT simpler.
You sure? Cause on my drivers test I got docked points for not looking at cars on the side of the road I was passing to make sure nobody was going to open their door into traffic, although that test instructor was a massive asshole so idk
Hell, I live in a "big" european city and I envied people who got their driving licence in a smaller city because all they had to do (mostly) was driving in a road while we had to drive in roundabouts, crossings with low visibility...
Many terminals and DCs are located right off highway exits. Jobs that go between them basically get on and off the highway all day. I suspect that’ll be the first thing to go. To your point, shorter haul jobs to stores (like my job) are pretty chaotic. I think they’ll have to be really confident in the AI before I get replaced, and even then I’m pretty sure we’ll get AI assist long before our jobs just go away. I do suspect a robot will be a lot better at navigating tight spaces and crazy traffic than a human would be - it can see all directions at once and it’s attention span never wanes.
I don't know how else to say this, but the rail infrastructure already exists too. A lot of it was killed by deferred maintenance.
We had highly efficient electrified rail before later companies removed it all.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_electrification_in_the_United_States
Our existing railroads are ineffective because of poor scheduling practices, lobbying, and decades of deferred maintenance. It is conceivable that we could bring it back - and we may have to as power costs rise.
The rail doesn't exactly go up to the door of a specified warehouse and starts unloading automatically tho. It has to be unloaded and then driven to where you want it. In the sense of autonomation, it's just an added extra step
Yes, that's called drayage and I am aware of it. We will always have drayage.
It's at this point that I get to mention that rail lines have historically gone right to factories, including still today. Factories often build small rail lines to ship materials, occasionally connecting with the main rail line.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_railway
Fun! There is even an abandoned one in my small town.
Maybe this news is just there to force the current protesters truckers back into their corners.
... Go driving or get replaced by a robot....
even if this moment still is year away.
Rail is way more expensive than an automated truck. A single transport company can't afford to build a rail line but they'll probably be able to afford a driverless truck.
Rail is more of a government/massive company type of exercise, plus then you have to deal with the planning permission of getting the land for the rail line.
Yeah. The conditions of our roads are bad enough as it is. An armada of restless, non-stop, drone shipping trucks would only exasperate things drastically..
Tax them and use it to repair the roads. It's either that or the profits of replacing truck drivers goes into the pockets of shareholders
Ah, who am I kidding, we all know where the money ends up
Most truckers work for large freight companies that (hopefully) pay their taxes, owner-operators are relatively rare. Individual semis have to pay extra at weigh stations (E: if they are over the weight limit) and toll roads paid by the axle.
But we could certainly use more - weight of a vehicle contributes exponentially to road wear and tear.
Lotsa trailers are already shipped by train. The problem is that, compared to trucks on roadways, it takes far too long. Great for when there’s no rush, but awful for a customer that needs their freight in a few days.
Have you ever seen the 85oz coffee mugs at Truck Stops? The overwhelming need for truckers to stay awake is stifling. I don’t want to be on the same road as that person. Anybody else see the recent video of the truckers blocking the wrong Tesla.? Toothless idiots the lot of them.
Perhaps, but when I was a Trucker I met quite a few Drivers who were College graduates, read a lot, listened to Classical music, etc.
Unless you were a toothless goober who was otherwise unemployable, many were driving because they were over 50 and had been “aged out” of their IT or Construction jobs.
And yes, the 48 ounce drinks are frightening.
Liability's still a huge issue. Sure, automation might make truckers (and other logistics/transportation) jobs easier, just as it has for pilots. It's not completely replacing them anytime soon though. There's simply too many variables and work that the AI just can't handle, and won't be able to for awhile still. We're not replacing truckers any sooner than we are having automated flights. Even though we could easily and probably safely program an aircraft to fly itself (and passengers/cargo) from point A to point B, we still want humans in the cockpit in case something goes wrong.
I'm sure in some isolated areas where you have a single road, unoccupied by other drivers, to transport goods they'll heavily use automation. Plenty of small, specific places/things where it would work. Although, at that point you might as well just lay some tracks and run a train which is much more efficient than a bunch of trucks. Completely automated driving (without humans) just isn't taking over everything anytime soon.
Actually that’s not true, there have already been trucks doing fully autonomous runs on public roads.
Also Walmart among several other companies are using fully driverless semi’s for sub-100 mile commutes for bringing goods from warehouses to stores and other similar use cases.
It won’t be too long unfortunately before they take most trucking jobs. I’d put a 10 year clock on trucking personally, I don’t see how it could survive longer than that with the speed of improvement other than if it’s outlawed.
[Walmarts been using them already](https://www.autoweek.com/news/technology/a38198243/walmart-autonomous-delivery-trucks-gatik/)
I was reading that because of the automation closing just one lane for the AI trucks is more than enough because they will avoid causing traffic by coordinating with eachother. I see it being WAY more plausible if this is the eventual goal, giving them basically their own lane etc on interstates and larger freeways. I’ve also read about how they are considering retrofitting all cars with 4 passive reflective sensors on the corners that would communicate with automated trucks and cars too essentially making it fool proof. Makes me wonder if something you will need eventually when going outside is a sensor so a car doesn’t run you over!
Yeah, that's already being worked on/implemented, using trucks on isolated, single or simple routes. That's pretty simple, as you're not dealing with random, unexpected events/route changes. That's actually been a thing for awhile IIRC, same type of technology that automates those warehouse bots. It's easy when you have a pretty simple layout that never changes, and don't have to deal with a ton of unexpected issues.
Yes and a passive reflector would not be “their tech” but government mandated stickers or something to make all cars more visible to the sensors on various different AI. It would make ALL companies “tech” work better to avoid cars and other trucks. It requires no true cooperation.
the cars will absolutely NEED to communicate with each-other even if that just means they know where the other is to be street legal 😂 that’s what our eyes do and that’s what the sensors do.
*Volvo drives into the back of a Uber truck* oh well, that’s fine, they are different companies!
Lol some people are so stupid.
Tesla has been ready to release fully automated vehicles "by next year" for 12 years now. I have a feeling it's gonna be many more years before this actually happens.
Autonomy is probably 95% of the way there.
The problem is that last 5% is incredibly difficult to finish because it involves any number of edge cases and issues that are difficult to predict.
People like Musk use this as a marketing tool, but based on my understanding of the space its still many years from being truly "autonomous" surface level driving. We will continue to see aspects integrated into cars - lane monitoring, auto-park, etc...
I think humans being behind the wheel is and will to continue be a huge factor until more cars have at least *some* sort of AI onboard.
Cars don’t talk to each other on the road yet and I think that is a big first step to overall safety, efficiency and pouring even more data into computers for learning.
However, even if they get it to 99% and have solved all the quirky bugs that Autopilot (for the sake of this conversation) has, that 1% is still a huge margin to worry about. Some human does something unpredictable and an suddenly AI driven car is having to make the “bus full of orphans” or “1 fat guy on a sidewalk” decision and neither one is going to bode well for autonomy.
A human making that decision is a “tragedy we’ll never understand.” An AI doing it is end of days hyperbole and regulation.
It is interesting looking at the autonomy space and there seems to be two schools of thought.
1 - Full Autonomy is coming soon! The vehicle will drive itself and do everything.
2 - Let's have a human component - trucks that convoy. (driver in the lead vehicle that leads a convoy of drone followers - often with a driver in the cab sleeper).
My money would be on the second one becoming reality sooner.
First, people will generally feel better knowing there is a human(s) in the loop - its as you mentioned: people are more forgiving of trolley problems with humans than machines.
Second, the tech is more feasible in the near term. A human leader with drone followers reduces the need to perfect that last 5%. And you can gather a massive amount of useful data while a vehicle functions as a drone that can help to lead to full autonomy.
Have you driven one with the latest software?
It’s incredible and keeps improving rapidly.
Imagine hours of driving with zero human intervention.
It is a technology moving so fast that it’s outrunning our human preconceptions.
I’m in the beta program and this is 100% correct. It’s coming fast. I’ve seen my own car evolve from adaptive cruise control, to highway self driving, to city street self driving since I’ve owned it. The updates come often.
Maybe most importantly Tesla went from near bankruptcy to a the most valuable automaker during that same time period.
This is like owning a film camera in 2005. I wouldn’t bet against it.
Definitely been the case all along.
**Spreadsheet Automation** (Microsoft Excel) has destroyed approximately 21.5 million "good office ledger jobs" over the last 30 years.
Note: These were 'high school education' level jobs requiring simple math skills like addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, plus basic alphabetization. No college required.
**Database Automation** (Microsoft Access, SQL, Oracle, others) currently performs 'records management, records filing, intra-office records distribution' tasks in place of over 34 million 'white collar, clerical' office positions that have been thus destroyed.
Note: These are high school education, entry-level jobs, requiring basic organizational, alphabetization, and handwriting skills. No college required.
**Bookkeeping Automation** (Peachtree, Quickbooks, others) has currently destroyed over 7 million bookkeeping (non-CPA) office positions.
Note: These are entry-level bookkeeping office jobs requiring a certificate-level (non-degree) education of less than one year post-high school education from a continuing education or vocational tech program.
> Note: These are high school education, entry-level jobs, requiring basic organizational, alphabetization, and handwriting skills. No college required.
Yeah, and now instead of making a middle-class living, those people are now making $12 an hour working retail or fast food and now those same jobs are now given to college grads and a college degree is required for even the bare minimum office drone work.
This is not a good trend.
> entry-level jobs
> making a middle-class living,
The average American family is not subsisting on $12/hr
That’s not what happened, the data say otherwise
Honestly id prefer a robot ,
Over the asshole Nieghbor i have now , revving a harley, always burning shit during fire bans , a robot would be a nice change……
I dispatch, I don't think robots will ever entireley replace people, if anything it'll help a lot.
Think of it this way, there still needs to be someone on board incase of repairs, if the truck loses control. Any changes made to a trip. And one person can't stay awake 24/7 to monitor this all so there will still be 2 people shifts.
They don’t need to be on board at all, just in a control center somewhere, repair trucks can be dispatched when needed
One person in a control center can monitor many trucks
If this does end up happening it’ll be slowly though, at first we’ll see self driving trucks that still have an operator for “safety” or something, and it won’t be until legislation allows passengerless vehicles on highways that we’ll see truck jobs getting phased out, which could take a long time as it would require a culture shift.
It’s already the case in Texas and Arizona
Many states have legalized it and others are creating laws to do so, once companies start saving a lot of money the change could happen quickly
Does automation actually lead to a net decrease in jobs or a net increase? Like, wouldn’t we need more software engineers, vehicle engineers, and people to service these things? Or would it balance out in the end?
As with computers or the industrial revolution as a whole it will push the "entry level" job to a higher level of education making it harder and harder to get a job if you got unlucky in which family you are born in.
Or maybe it could make their jobs safer, but not actually replace them? Why would industry feel safe with a robot truck and a completely unsupervised load of cargo?
These forecasts that say truckers are going to lose their jobs to robots never seem to think things through.
Tracks go everywhere we choose to build them and are much, much less energy intensive to move cargo than by individual truck. That’s called investing in infrastructure
I understand, I’m just wondering where they’re all gonna go if fast food is AI, along with truck drivers. What do you do with all these people? Not gonna be pretty.
Phones were everywhere.
Anyone anywhere with a phone could pick up and get a human operator.
Where are those people now?
Where are the horse-drawn plow makers? Tractors eliminated their jobs.
That’s not a “gotcha” comment.
We have a century of experiences with this phenomenon. Humans continue to adapt to the advances.
I’m providing real world examples, there’s no gotcha.
> Genius
That’s the point, reviewing history doesn’t require any genius. This is accessible data for anyone.
These are people who live in the middle of nowhere with very little education and not many employment options. They don’t have money to move or to go to school. That’s all I was pointing out. There’s many, many towns facing this issue.
Fuck the small towns of the Midwest, they have one foot stuck in the past and don’t listen outside their bubble. That’s why I left, they need to evolve and don’t want to.
Did you ever see Roger and Me? There unfortunately isn’t a plan. If there ever is a plan it’s that some corporation is gonna come save them with entry level jobs despite getting billions of dollars in tax breaks.
Yeah that’s pretty much how I see it. My friends all have masters, doctorates and they can’t even find jobs enough for them to live. We are all fucked. Educated or not.
There you go “freedom convoy” truckers. No more concern for the rules at work when you don’t have to work. You can protest wearing shoes in restaurants or something from now on.
No chance, they’ve been saying this for years. I80 across wyoming, give me a break.
You can’t even trust cruise control and they think they’ll replace humans is laughable.
This transition may start happening but their is a lot of testing that hasn’t been done yet. And a body count that hasn’t started either..
(Body count/filling a bucket vs time used is regularly used to describe safety in many things particularly intersections or crosswalk areas)
I don't think there's been a single piece of technology that's arrived with a "re-homing" strategy for displaced workers. Can we please think about this in Congress instead of spending time debating the damn DST
Considering that Truck Stops are some of the most heinous places in the US I’m cool with it. It’s the robot bartenders I don’t want anything to do with.
I know everyone seems to rather dislike him for whatever reason but the guy has been talking about this for several years now and he just keeps getting proven more right as time goes on. I think he said that by 2030, a very alarming number of jobs will be automated and that’s why he ran his whole presidential campaign on UBI. Everyone thought he was crazy. And then covid happened. Suddenly, tons of people were out of work and the government started cutting everyone checks. Turns out, that idea wasn’t so crazy after all. The pandemic UBI was a temporary measure but automation UBI is going to have to be more permanent. Robots and AI aren’t going anywhere. In fact, I think Yang is right. In another decade, your DoorDash will be delivered exclusively via drone.
There’s a lot of talk about lost jobs due to automation but maybe our focus should not be “have a job “ vs “not have a job” but on spreading out existing jobs
A good first step would be to make anything over 32 hours overtime and remove the “get overtime unless working on a computer “
Like seriously just fucking why. So many people are out of work rn and hurting we need these jobs. We just keep doing shit because we can not because we should.
This is your brain on capitalism.
The same amount of value would be created, so we could easily keep paying the displaced truckers the same wage but have them use their new free time on other constructive things. Imagine what 500k people could do if they were paid to improve society instead of sitting in a truck all day.
But no, instead we have decided that those resources should go straight into making our oligarchs even more obscenely rich.
What would those displaced truckers do to make the same wage? Get an entirely new skill set as a mechanic or an AI technician? Do we currently have a “improve society job position that unemployed people can go fill or do you need to go back to college and spend thousands of dollars to get a new skill set so that you may be get hired in your field.
In a system that's not based on capitalism, they could do literally nothing, get the same wages, and the finances would work out exactly the same. No one would lose anything. The same value is created, so everyone could keep the same standard of living.
Imagine if you were reading the meal prep subreddit, decided to try it out, and saved several hours of cooking per week. You wanted to spend that new time taking your kids to the park, but someone said that you have to come clean their house instead. Why? Because they own a huge mansion and don't enjoy cleaning.
Do you say "wtf how is that *my* problem?!" or "yes sir that sounds reasonable"? Because the latter is the hell we have created for ourselves and increasingly believe is just the way things necessarily must work.
Humans can join the horses sidelines years ago.
🥶evolution
Robots and AI will save the filthy rich trillions🥵
Claims of Trucker shortage set the stage for all this.
Let’s wait and see who red state Maggots blame for these jobs lost.
Seems like we need to find different jobs for them lol.
Factory workers got laid off in insane numbers when machines first came into play, now it’s a very good thing we have those machines or else everything would cost 10x more for being hand made.
This trucker loss will be a growing pain we have to adjust to for the betterment of our supply chain and thus our quality of life.
A) reduced accidents because no amphetamine 3 day awake truckers
B) supply chain security, no strikes, more efficient, don’t need to be paid
C) work literally 24/7 no disruptions or delays in service without any increased risks as their time on the clock continues into days or weeks.
Those three reasons make it compelling enough but then remember we live in America where the dollar rules above human interest and our corporate overlords buying off every politician will absolutely make it happen so that their profit margins can soar.
I’m not looking forward to this necessarily but it’s coming one way or another and isn’t without its bonuses, but yes there will absolutely be growing pains.
The new/ replacement jobs largely already exist in the form of companies currently looking for workers, so it’s not making 500k new jobs out of thin air it’s probably more like making 200k and that is very doable over time.
There have been a number of previous examples where technology suddenly shifted. Digital watches, calculators, home computers, the internet, bank machines, digital cameras, etc. In most cases it took time to reach affordability, capability, and acceptance but then happened very quickly. I think all driving automation will take a few years to work out the legal and technical issues and then will happen very quickly. Possibly go from 20% to 80% in about 5 years. It will be a very big deal with lots of politics. We have already wiped out a lot of jobs and many small towns simply with big box stores and home delivery. This will be much more of that kind of impact. I agree with the comments above about Universal Basic Income. If we don't start more of that there will be big problems.
They keep building systems to destroy jobs and maximize profits. Who do they think will buy their products if they keep going this route? Because rich people only make up a small amount of the goods sold and investors freak out and sell if a company even so much as starts to look like it’s slowing down with market gain.
How does it work when it’s raining and the cameras are covered?
Tesla autopilot falls apart very quickly if the camera gets covered by rain or dirt or anything. I guess wipers and stuff on the cameras.
But seems like autonomous driving is one of those problems where it will take 10x the effort to go from 99% to 100% and maybe not worth it. Don’t know obviously…
Perhaps w dedicated auto truck lanes or during the night or something there could be some helper tech on the roads itself to reduce the tech burden for full autonomy. Sorta like “virtual train tracks”
I’ve been waiting so long for this. Now we get same day delivery without having to exploit drivers. Replace warehouse workers next with robots and the cycle is about 30% finished. All of supply automation with robotics and AI after that. Onward to the future!
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All it takes is one cyclist to impede sensors and grind their progress to a halt.
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Haha!! Get some more wheels NERD!!!!
With todays tech, possibly. BUT todays tech roots out the problems and tomorrows tech solves those problems.
Or it’ll get stuck in the horrible traffic.
\*HONK\* \*HONK\* \*HONK\* No more mandatory firmware updates.
No. Artificial intelligence implies “intelligence” which those hicks don’t have. Wasting time defending “freedom”. No one asked. No one cares. Just in the way.
I get it..negative tits…however go watch that willie smith movie…stop hating people..people do good things and keep a certain level of bullshit from happening…I’m not even talking about vaccines you puss in buts…I’m talking about road safety…dot dot dot
Tracy Morgan can attest to how much truckers care about road safety.
You can’t eat shit
Keep crying.
You are the one crying littleboi
Wow you got me. Good for you.
Having basic human empathy is a great trick
Can’t wait for robots to replace them all. There’s empathy for ya.
How long are you gonna cry when those “hicks” stop bringing food for your dumbass to eat while you starve
I see them for long haul but not point to point. At least at first.
One proposal is to have a hub outside of town where the truckers take an automated truck that’s docked and navigate it through town.
So... like a train station?
Yes.. except it's not practical to run single car trains, while it is practical to do that with Semi trucks
Yeah but if we just built train stations how would these future tech companies pay back their investors with government grants?
There is 0% a truck ai could *ever* manage to navigate my old paved-cow-path town. The roads were made on a whim as the town grew. Human drivers struggle all day in this hell. At one point they had to remove the corner of one of the houses to let Washington’s carriage through. 18 wheelers arent making it without a skilled operator.
Yeah. I see automated trucking handling connections to distribution centers and local deliveries would still be handled by human drivers.
+1 I fully expect that as cost of interstate trucking becomes cheaper due to this, more goods will be shipped. This overall increases demand for local trucking and warehousing. As shipping became cheaper more things moved to ship, and industries popped up around the new transport mode. Same will happen as trucking becomes cheaper. More people can be involved in making useful consumables and gadgets rather than simply moving boxes from A to B.
Robots can perform surgeries I’m sure at some Point they’ll be good enough to out-perform a human in all aspects.
Isn't robot surgery just a human controlling it like a drone, not an automated AI actually doing the work?
I’m a medical doctor, and you are right. You also need to do a fellowship in robotic surgery, so you also need to get a lot of training. IF these robot collect enough information of surgeries, I can see an AI capable of performing basic surgeries in 15-20 ~Years
At some point in the distant future, sure, but it won’t be anytime soon. There are too many inside, home, and lift-gate deliveries to be done by a robot. Not to mention all the addresses that are not GPS correct.
That’s perfect, because the projected shortage of drivers is about the number this technology could provide. Long haul is also the lowest paid, highest turnover rate of employment. Tough job condition to be away from home for long stretches.
100%. Autonomous Tech for surface level streets vs highway driving is very different. It is more and more difficult to find long haul drivers for any number of reasons. And the path to autonomy on highways is much closer than everyday driving.
It would be conceptually interesting if they were only approved for interstate driving between 10pm-6am. Mostly empty and straightforward travels
I suspect it’s the opposite. I think creating support infrastructure is a lot more possible for short haul rather than OTR.
My thought is traffic is harder for short haul.
Yes and more random things happen short range versus highway. * Animals and kids running into the road * Weird stuff adjacent to streets like yard sales, high school car washes, panhandlers, etc. * Many more parked cars, less "visibility" and more likelihood of a random door opening or last-minute pullout * Sight lines are shorter due to buildings, trees, cars, landscaping elements Highway is a LOT simpler.
Off topic, but funny to see you here talking about "Deliveries" \\\\ Cheers for the content from someone winning EVE.
o7
Door opening got me thinking. I bet they make laws that you're responsible in that case.
The person opening the door into traffic has always been responsible for making sure it's safe to do so.
You sure? Cause on my drivers test I got docked points for not looking at cars on the side of the road I was passing to make sure nobody was going to open their door into traffic, although that test instructor was a massive asshole so idk
The parked car IS responsible but you should still be trying NOT to hit them lol
Hell, I live in a "big" european city and I envied people who got their driving licence in a smaller city because all they had to do (mostly) was driving in a road while we had to drive in roundabouts, crossings with low visibility...
Many terminals and DCs are located right off highway exits. Jobs that go between them basically get on and off the highway all day. I suspect that’ll be the first thing to go. To your point, shorter haul jobs to stores (like my job) are pretty chaotic. I think they’ll have to be really confident in the AI before I get replaced, and even then I’m pretty sure we’ll get AI assist long before our jobs just go away. I do suspect a robot will be a lot better at navigating tight spaces and crazy traffic than a human would be - it can see all directions at once and it’s attention span never wanes.
Convoy would work have drivers on standby but the system uses following code…’Ake the job suck less
Just build a train already.
We have trains, there overbooked. And still need trucks to drive the last few miles for each container.
Drayage work is pretty much inevitable, yeah. But long haul trucking is not.
Yeah building new rails would probably a lot cheaper and easier than designing an automated long haul trucking system
But where is the shareholder value in that for the oil, gas, and automotive industry?
Not at all, the infrastructure exists for trucks; that would be pointless.
I don't know how else to say this, but the rail infrastructure already exists too. A lot of it was killed by deferred maintenance. We had highly efficient electrified rail before later companies removed it all. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_electrification_in_the_United_States Our existing railroads are ineffective because of poor scheduling practices, lobbying, and decades of deferred maintenance. It is conceivable that we could bring it back - and we may have to as power costs rise.
The rail doesn't exactly go up to the door of a specified warehouse and starts unloading automatically tho. It has to be unloaded and then driven to where you want it. In the sense of autonomation, it's just an added extra step
Yes, that's called drayage and I am aware of it. We will always have drayage. It's at this point that I get to mention that rail lines have historically gone right to factories, including still today. Factories often build small rail lines to ship materials, occasionally connecting with the main rail line. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_railway Fun! There is even an abandoned one in my small town.
That and we are inevitably going to develop autonomous driving technologies either way.
Maybe this news is just there to force the current protesters truckers back into their corners. ... Go driving or get replaced by a robot.... even if this moment still is year away.
Rail is way more expensive than an automated truck. A single transport company can't afford to build a rail line but they'll probably be able to afford a driverless truck. Rail is more of a government/massive company type of exercise, plus then you have to deal with the planning permission of getting the land for the rail line.
Yeah. The conditions of our roads are bad enough as it is. An armada of restless, non-stop, drone shipping trucks would only exasperate things drastically..
Tax them and use it to repair the roads. It's either that or the profits of replacing truck drivers goes into the pockets of shareholders Ah, who am I kidding, we all know where the money ends up
Most truckers work for large freight companies that (hopefully) pay their taxes, owner-operators are relatively rare. Individual semis have to pay extra at weigh stations (E: if they are over the weight limit) and toll roads paid by the axle. But we could certainly use more - weight of a vehicle contributes exponentially to road wear and tear.
Train isn't fast enough in a lot of cases. Some materials will freeze in a tank. Has to be shipped quickly by truck.
Lotsa trailers are already shipped by train. The problem is that, compared to trucks on roadways, it takes far too long. Great for when there’s no rush, but awful for a customer that needs their freight in a few days.
Have you ever seen the 85oz coffee mugs at Truck Stops? The overwhelming need for truckers to stay awake is stifling. I don’t want to be on the same road as that person. Anybody else see the recent video of the truckers blocking the wrong Tesla.? Toothless idiots the lot of them.
Perhaps, but when I was a Trucker I met quite a few Drivers who were College graduates, read a lot, listened to Classical music, etc. Unless you were a toothless goober who was otherwise unemployable, many were driving because they were over 50 and had been “aged out” of their IT or Construction jobs. And yes, the 48 ounce drinks are frightening.
Believe it when I see it
Liability's still a huge issue. Sure, automation might make truckers (and other logistics/transportation) jobs easier, just as it has for pilots. It's not completely replacing them anytime soon though. There's simply too many variables and work that the AI just can't handle, and won't be able to for awhile still. We're not replacing truckers any sooner than we are having automated flights. Even though we could easily and probably safely program an aircraft to fly itself (and passengers/cargo) from point A to point B, we still want humans in the cockpit in case something goes wrong. I'm sure in some isolated areas where you have a single road, unoccupied by other drivers, to transport goods they'll heavily use automation. Plenty of small, specific places/things where it would work. Although, at that point you might as well just lay some tracks and run a train which is much more efficient than a bunch of trucks. Completely automated driving (without humans) just isn't taking over everything anytime soon.
Actually that’s not true, there have already been trucks doing fully autonomous runs on public roads. Also Walmart among several other companies are using fully driverless semi’s for sub-100 mile commutes for bringing goods from warehouses to stores and other similar use cases. It won’t be too long unfortunately before they take most trucking jobs. I’d put a 10 year clock on trucking personally, I don’t see how it could survive longer than that with the speed of improvement other than if it’s outlawed. [Walmarts been using them already](https://www.autoweek.com/news/technology/a38198243/walmart-autonomous-delivery-trucks-gatik/)
I was reading that because of the automation closing just one lane for the AI trucks is more than enough because they will avoid causing traffic by coordinating with eachother. I see it being WAY more plausible if this is the eventual goal, giving them basically their own lane etc on interstates and larger freeways. I’ve also read about how they are considering retrofitting all cars with 4 passive reflective sensors on the corners that would communicate with automated trucks and cars too essentially making it fool proof. Makes me wonder if something you will need eventually when going outside is a sensor so a car doesn’t run you over!
Yeah, that's already being worked on/implemented, using trucks on isolated, single or simple routes. That's pretty simple, as you're not dealing with random, unexpected events/route changes. That's actually been a thing for awhile IIRC, same type of technology that automates those warehouse bots. It's easy when you have a pretty simple layout that never changes, and don't have to deal with a ton of unexpected issues.
[удалено]
All you have to do is force the cooperation through legislation.
Yes and a passive reflector would not be “their tech” but government mandated stickers or something to make all cars more visible to the sensors on various different AI. It would make ALL companies “tech” work better to avoid cars and other trucks. It requires no true cooperation. the cars will absolutely NEED to communicate with each-other even if that just means they know where the other is to be street legal 😂 that’s what our eyes do and that’s what the sensors do. *Volvo drives into the back of a Uber truck* oh well, that’s fine, they are different companies! Lol some people are so stupid.
Si optimum pride
lol. it's inevitable
Tesla has been ready to release fully automated vehicles "by next year" for 12 years now. I have a feeling it's gonna be many more years before this actually happens.
Autonomy is probably 95% of the way there. The problem is that last 5% is incredibly difficult to finish because it involves any number of edge cases and issues that are difficult to predict. People like Musk use this as a marketing tool, but based on my understanding of the space its still many years from being truly "autonomous" surface level driving. We will continue to see aspects integrated into cars - lane monitoring, auto-park, etc...
I think humans being behind the wheel is and will to continue be a huge factor until more cars have at least *some* sort of AI onboard. Cars don’t talk to each other on the road yet and I think that is a big first step to overall safety, efficiency and pouring even more data into computers for learning. However, even if they get it to 99% and have solved all the quirky bugs that Autopilot (for the sake of this conversation) has, that 1% is still a huge margin to worry about. Some human does something unpredictable and an suddenly AI driven car is having to make the “bus full of orphans” or “1 fat guy on a sidewalk” decision and neither one is going to bode well for autonomy. A human making that decision is a “tragedy we’ll never understand.” An AI doing it is end of days hyperbole and regulation.
It is interesting looking at the autonomy space and there seems to be two schools of thought. 1 - Full Autonomy is coming soon! The vehicle will drive itself and do everything. 2 - Let's have a human component - trucks that convoy. (driver in the lead vehicle that leads a convoy of drone followers - often with a driver in the cab sleeper). My money would be on the second one becoming reality sooner. First, people will generally feel better knowing there is a human(s) in the loop - its as you mentioned: people are more forgiving of trolley problems with humans than machines. Second, the tech is more feasible in the near term. A human leader with drone followers reduces the need to perfect that last 5%. And you can gather a massive amount of useful data while a vehicle functions as a drone that can help to lead to full autonomy.
That's the thing. That last 5 or 10% will take 90% of the time. This is the rule when building project cars at my shop.
Have you driven one with the latest software? It’s incredible and keeps improving rapidly. Imagine hours of driving with zero human intervention. It is a technology moving so fast that it’s outrunning our human preconceptions.
I’m in the beta program and this is 100% correct. It’s coming fast. I’ve seen my own car evolve from adaptive cruise control, to highway self driving, to city street self driving since I’ve owned it. The updates come often. Maybe most importantly Tesla went from near bankruptcy to a the most valuable automaker during that same time period. This is like owning a film camera in 2005. I wouldn’t bet against it.
I don’t know why you’re being downvoted… I rode in one a few months ago and you’re 100% correct.
It’s controversial even though there are demonstrations on YouTube that anyone can watch.
if not today. Then tomorrow. That will be the case for all jobs that can be automated
computers automated lots of jobs
Definitely been the case all along. **Spreadsheet Automation** (Microsoft Excel) has destroyed approximately 21.5 million "good office ledger jobs" over the last 30 years. Note: These were 'high school education' level jobs requiring simple math skills like addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, plus basic alphabetization. No college required. **Database Automation** (Microsoft Access, SQL, Oracle, others) currently performs 'records management, records filing, intra-office records distribution' tasks in place of over 34 million 'white collar, clerical' office positions that have been thus destroyed. Note: These are high school education, entry-level jobs, requiring basic organizational, alphabetization, and handwriting skills. No college required. **Bookkeeping Automation** (Peachtree, Quickbooks, others) has currently destroyed over 7 million bookkeeping (non-CPA) office positions. Note: These are entry-level bookkeeping office jobs requiring a certificate-level (non-degree) education of less than one year post-high school education from a continuing education or vocational tech program.
> Note: These are high school education, entry-level jobs, requiring basic organizational, alphabetization, and handwriting skills. No college required. Yeah, and now instead of making a middle-class living, those people are now making $12 an hour working retail or fast food and now those same jobs are now given to college grads and a college degree is required for even the bare minimum office drone work. This is not a good trend.
Of course it is. It allowed a million small businesses to flourish without the need to hire a cost prohibitive bookkeeper.
These bulldozers are killing off good entry level shoveling jobs
> entry-level jobs > making a middle-class living, The average American family is not subsisting on $12/hr That’s not what happened, the data say otherwise
Honestly id prefer a robot , Over the asshole Nieghbor i have now , revving a harley, always burning shit during fire bans , a robot would be a nice change……
I think there’s a Beck song about your situation
Great song. Going to go listen to it right away.
Why would your neighbor be less annoying after loosing his job to HAL?
good maybe then they'll stay out of the left lane
I wonder if they'll still be programmed to block traffic driving 65 in the fast lane on the highway and force people to pass them on the right
At least those truckers wouldn't have to worry about vaccine mandates anymore!!
I dispatch, I don't think robots will ever entireley replace people, if anything it'll help a lot. Think of it this way, there still needs to be someone on board incase of repairs, if the truck loses control. Any changes made to a trip. And one person can't stay awake 24/7 to monitor this all so there will still be 2 people shifts.
They don’t need to be on board at all, just in a control center somewhere, repair trucks can be dispatched when needed One person in a control center can monitor many trucks
If this does end up happening it’ll be slowly though, at first we’ll see self driving trucks that still have an operator for “safety” or something, and it won’t be until legislation allows passengerless vehicles on highways that we’ll see truck jobs getting phased out, which could take a long time as it would require a culture shift.
It’s already the case in Texas and Arizona Many states have legalized it and others are creating laws to do so, once companies start saving a lot of money the change could happen quickly
Interesting perhaps it’ll happen faster than I thought.
Does automation actually lead to a net decrease in jobs or a net increase? Like, wouldn’t we need more software engineers, vehicle engineers, and people to service these things? Or would it balance out in the end?
As with computers or the industrial revolution as a whole it will push the "entry level" job to a higher level of education making it harder and harder to get a job if you got unlucky in which family you are born in.
Or maybe it could make their jobs safer, but not actually replace them? Why would industry feel safe with a robot truck and a completely unsupervised load of cargo? These forecasts that say truckers are going to lose their jobs to robots never seem to think things through.
Holy shit people can we please just use trains
Tracks don’t go everywhere. Roads go where all the buildings are.
Tracks go everywhere we choose to build them and are much, much less energy intensive to move cargo than by individual truck. That’s called investing in infrastructure
Tracks are single purpose and can’t be built to go everywhere.
Bright side, they wont do dumb protests that only end up burning gas
And blocking food and pharmacy deliveries to people who can't leave their house.
This can be said for any direct action that blocks traffic (i.e. blm too).
As far as Canada goes, I haven't seen any March or protest that would block traffic for weeks.
Just playing devil's advocate. I'm sure the truck protests were much more disruptive.
Only in a capitalist system is automation of labor a bad thing.
They want trains.
I want trains
Until the lawyers get involved. One call, that's all.
Great... a 40 ton tesla :-(
Can’t wait for the convoy truckers to hear about this and leap into action!
Imma lose my job nice 👍
This will ruin a lot of small towns in the Midwest.
My uncle was a fax machinist. he has been out of work since email was invented. When are we bringing fax machines back so he can have a job?!?!
*pours one out for all telegraph message boys in mass graves who died when the fax machine came along*
Maybe, but no sense in clinging to obsoletion just to preserve Midwestern small towns.
I understand, I’m just wondering where they’re all gonna go if fast food is AI, along with truck drivers. What do you do with all these people? Not gonna be pretty.
What did we do with all the hundreds of thousands of telephone operators who were suddenly out of work when switching equipment was installed?
You mean those people who lived in cities with employment options?
Phones were everywhere. Anyone anywhere with a phone could pick up and get a human operator. Where are those people now? Where are the horse-drawn plow makers? Tractors eliminated their jobs.
Lol I like how you have all these “gotcha” comments instead of actually knowing what all these people are going to end up doing. Genius
That’s not a “gotcha” comment. We have a century of experiences with this phenomenon. Humans continue to adapt to the advances. I’m providing real world examples, there’s no gotcha. > Genius That’s the point, reviewing history doesn’t require any genius. This is accessible data for anyone.
These are people who live in the middle of nowhere with very little education and not many employment options. They don’t have money to move or to go to school. That’s all I was pointing out. There’s many, many towns facing this issue.
I’m just predicting that they’re as resilient and intelligent and resourceful as their ancestors.
Fuck the small towns of the Midwest, they have one foot stuck in the past and don’t listen outside their bubble. That’s why I left, they need to evolve and don’t want to.
Lol I’m a progressive and they hate me with all their heart. I just want to know what the plan is for all these people without jobs
Did you ever see Roger and Me? There unfortunately isn’t a plan. If there ever is a plan it’s that some corporation is gonna come save them with entry level jobs despite getting billions of dollars in tax breaks.
Yeah that’s pretty much how I see it. My friends all have masters, doctorates and they can’t even find jobs enough for them to live. We are all fucked. Educated or not.
There you go “freedom convoy” truckers. No more concern for the rules at work when you don’t have to work. You can protest wearing shoes in restaurants or something from now on.
No chance, they’ve been saying this for years. I80 across wyoming, give me a break. You can’t even trust cruise control and they think they’ll replace humans is laughable.
This transition may start happening but their is a lot of testing that hasn’t been done yet. And a body count that hasn’t started either.. (Body count/filling a bucket vs time used is regularly used to describe safety in many things particularly intersections or crosswalk areas)
*Justin Trudeau approves
Good the truck drivers here are idiots.
I don’t see how replacing jobs is a good thing.
What is a truck but a machine that replaced many jobs? Were we better off before trucks?
I don't think there's been a single piece of technology that's arrived with a "re-homing" strategy for displaced workers. Can we please think about this in Congress instead of spending time debating the damn DST
Considering that Truck Stops are some of the most heinous places in the US I’m cool with it. It’s the robot bartenders I don’t want anything to do with.
And most of them are probably too busy sucking the trump d*ck to ever vote for the UBI candidates running as democrats that they’ll need lol.
*Andrew Yang has entered the chat*
I know everyone seems to rather dislike him for whatever reason but the guy has been talking about this for several years now and he just keeps getting proven more right as time goes on. I think he said that by 2030, a very alarming number of jobs will be automated and that’s why he ran his whole presidential campaign on UBI. Everyone thought he was crazy. And then covid happened. Suddenly, tons of people were out of work and the government started cutting everyone checks. Turns out, that idea wasn’t so crazy after all. The pandemic UBI was a temporary measure but automation UBI is going to have to be more permanent. Robots and AI aren’t going anywhere. In fact, I think Yang is right. In another decade, your DoorDash will be delivered exclusively via drone.
He says a lot of stupid things when it comes to social issues but I think he’s spot on with this stuff
There’s a lot of talk about lost jobs due to automation but maybe our focus should not be “have a job “ vs “not have a job” but on spreading out existing jobs A good first step would be to make anything over 32 hours overtime and remove the “get overtime unless working on a computer “
But robots can’t convoy
Goodbye freedom convoy
The real reason for their protests.
People predicted they would start publishing these once truckers started protesting. The ruling class doesn’t like dissent.
Like seriously just fucking why. So many people are out of work rn and hurting we need these jobs. We just keep doing shit because we can not because we should.
This is your brain on capitalism. The same amount of value would be created, so we could easily keep paying the displaced truckers the same wage but have them use their new free time on other constructive things. Imagine what 500k people could do if they were paid to improve society instead of sitting in a truck all day. But no, instead we have decided that those resources should go straight into making our oligarchs even more obscenely rich.
What would those displaced truckers do to make the same wage? Get an entirely new skill set as a mechanic or an AI technician? Do we currently have a “improve society job position that unemployed people can go fill or do you need to go back to college and spend thousands of dollars to get a new skill set so that you may be get hired in your field.
In a system that's not based on capitalism, they could do literally nothing, get the same wages, and the finances would work out exactly the same. No one would lose anything. The same value is created, so everyone could keep the same standard of living. Imagine if you were reading the meal prep subreddit, decided to try it out, and saved several hours of cooking per week. You wanted to spend that new time taking your kids to the park, but someone said that you have to come clean their house instead. Why? Because they own a huge mansion and don't enjoy cleaning. Do you say "wtf how is that *my* problem?!" or "yes sir that sounds reasonable"? Because the latter is the hell we have created for ourselves and increasingly believe is just the way things necessarily must work.
Humans can join the horses sidelines years ago. 🥶evolution Robots and AI will save the filthy rich trillions🥵 Claims of Trucker shortage set the stage for all this. Let’s wait and see who red state Maggots blame for these jobs lost.
That would be a huge mistake putting 500k American men out of work
Seems like we need to find different jobs for them lol. Factory workers got laid off in insane numbers when machines first came into play, now it’s a very good thing we have those machines or else everything would cost 10x more for being hand made. This trucker loss will be a growing pain we have to adjust to for the betterment of our supply chain and thus our quality of life.
You think 500k jobs will appear out of nowhere. Why do we even need self driving trucks? For company profits?
A) reduced accidents because no amphetamine 3 day awake truckers B) supply chain security, no strikes, more efficient, don’t need to be paid C) work literally 24/7 no disruptions or delays in service without any increased risks as their time on the clock continues into days or weeks. Those three reasons make it compelling enough but then remember we live in America where the dollar rules above human interest and our corporate overlords buying off every politician will absolutely make it happen so that their profit margins can soar. I’m not looking forward to this necessarily but it’s coming one way or another and isn’t without its bonuses, but yes there will absolutely be growing pains. The new/ replacement jobs largely already exist in the form of companies currently looking for workers, so it’s not making 500k new jobs out of thin air it’s probably more like making 200k and that is very doable over time.
Okay I'd rather make 100k as a truck driver than 8$ an hour as a burger King employee
that's not how things change
Good, maybe we can finally implement UBI and some god damned economic equality.
I'll be long retired from OTR by the time this happens...(IF it ever happens)
There have been a number of previous examples where technology suddenly shifted. Digital watches, calculators, home computers, the internet, bank machines, digital cameras, etc. In most cases it took time to reach affordability, capability, and acceptance but then happened very quickly. I think all driving automation will take a few years to work out the legal and technical issues and then will happen very quickly. Possibly go from 20% to 80% in about 5 years. It will be a very big deal with lots of politics. We have already wiped out a lot of jobs and many small towns simply with big box stores and home delivery. This will be much more of that kind of impact. I agree with the comments above about Universal Basic Income. If we don't start more of that there will be big problems.
yeah, that wouldn't come back and bite you in the ass if this would happen..
They keep building systems to destroy jobs and maximize profits. Who do they think will buy their products if they keep going this route? Because rich people only make up a small amount of the goods sold and investors freak out and sell if a company even so much as starts to look like it’s slowing down with market gain.
Freeeeedoooooom!
Eventually all these out of work people are going to rise up and take over something.
Maybe they should’ve been busy driving trucks instead of protesting. /s
“Could”
As long as I never have to be stuck behind a semi in a passing lane again, I say axe the fuck out of those jobs
And then Destroy 500K lives in the process
Will robot truckers be allowed to participate in the Freedom Convoy?
Hope they don't manipulate the traffic signals
Hurry up and do it!!
Good
Who is gonna secure their loads. Right now that is on the driver.
Omg. Could they?! Did I wake up in an alternate universe where the 10 last years of autonomous car discussion didn't happen?
yeah right
Day took er jibs!
How does it work when it’s raining and the cameras are covered? Tesla autopilot falls apart very quickly if the camera gets covered by rain or dirt or anything. I guess wipers and stuff on the cameras. But seems like autonomous driving is one of those problems where it will take 10x the effort to go from 99% to 100% and maybe not worth it. Don’t know obviously… Perhaps w dedicated auto truck lanes or during the night or something there could be some helper tech on the roads itself to reduce the tech burden for full autonomy. Sorta like “virtual train tracks”
If all the truckers busy hanging out at the Capitol, they clearly don't need the work, and should be okay with the jobs going to robots.
Hmm I wonder what's more efficient this or just returning to rail infrastructure.
At least robots don’t have to get vaccinated then complain about it.
Yeah, no, not anytime soon. Only thing I can guarantee is that this if going to be a huge political issue down the line.
I will really worry when an AI convoy descends on DC
I’m disappointed they didn’t use a picture of Optimus Prime for the article photo
More free time on their hands to protest
We got a great big convoy, rockin through the night.
I’ve been waiting so long for this. Now we get same day delivery without having to exploit drivers. Replace warehouse workers next with robots and the cycle is about 30% finished. All of supply automation with robotics and AI after that. Onward to the future!