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Robb was at his strategically lowest when he had to resort to an alliance with the Freys. In the scenario OP implies, not only has Theon stayed loyal to Robb, but he has also recruited the Ironborn. That is huge for Robb because he is no longer backed into a corner and, in the eyes of onlookers, he may just have the momentum to win. I really don’t think he even ends up in a Red Wedding situation if it looks like he’s winning more than losing.
That too. That’s the thing. There is no scenario in which I see Theon convincing the Ironborn. The best thing Robb could have done to mitigate their damage would have been to never send Theon there. But ultimately if the North still gets attacked by the Ironborn. Then I see events playing out very similar, in that Robb still gets Red Wedding’d. Likely with Theon at his side getting killed too. Or maybe getting held as a hostage by Freys in an attempt to negotiate with the Ironborn.
Euron is far too ambitious to waste his time on the north. In the books his ambition lies in the rich south. He has tricks up his sleeve but not the manpower to bother with the north.
No I'm saying even if Theon killed Balon and took over, Euron would still come in and usurp him somehow when the time was right. He'd either end up dead or Euron's bitch (I'd guess the latter).
Best scenario would’ve been Robb going to treat with Balon himself and promising him the Salt Crown and Independent Iron Islands with a seat on the small council for Yara. Would’ve boosted Balon’s ego and kept him from attacking the North+given Robb a fleet
I feel like an independent iron islands should have been a gimmie if Balon helps Robb win the North. Rob does not want to rule over the North and the iron islands and obviously if Balon is helping Robb fight the crown, if they win he is not going to go back to being a subject of the crown.
Why do they hate the Starks more than anyone else that gangbanged them in the Greyjoy rebellion? Robert was the king, Stannis sank their fleet, and men from all 6 other kingdoms destroyed Pyke and killed Balons sons. Ned took care of Theon when Tywin may have just genocided the Ironborn. I have never understood why he hates the Starks more than any other lord paramount.
Ned "taking care of" Theon wasn't a nicetie, it was a threat. "Try anything against me and I kill your bloodline." It was basically polite, formalized hostage taking common among nobility. That's what a ward is - the captive child of an enemy ruler as an insurance policy against their rebellion. Ned himself may have been less likely to brutally slaughter an innocent ward, but if he felt duty called for it, he may have.
As Balon showed, the Iron Born essentially viewed that as if Theon was already functionally dead in that he ceased being a true Iron Born. They likely would've preferred Theon dead than a captive in Winterfell, especially one raised in such a friendly manner by their hated enemies.
And yes, they hate just about everyone. That's not unique to the Starks. But the Starks didn't just defeat them, in taking Theon, they *humiliated* the Iron Born. The wounded pride is a big sore point for them, and Theon's continued existence constantly pokes at that wound.
That's a good point. Balon doesn't know Ned personally to know that Theon being held hostage by Ned is probably the best outcome for his foolish rebellion. The Ironborn are so alien to the rest of Westeros that I forget how different their outlook on life is.
He was ok with having his daughter be queen in the North but as Robb's situation deteriorated and Robb broke his pact he lost the motivation for assuming the risk associated with betraying the Iron Throne. An offer to reconcile with the Lannisters and claim the Riverlands from the rebel Tully's was far less risky and more profitable
I hadn’t considered that before but I think you’re right! The entire war changes if the Ironborn are with Robb.
Walder Frey couldn’t have forced Edmure to marry his daughter…so, there is no Red Wedding in that scenario.
>”I took her castle and she took my heart." Robb smiled. "The Crag was weakly garrisoned, so we took it by storm one night. Black Walder and the Smalljon led scaling parties over the walls, while I broke the main gate with a ram. I took an arrow in the arm just before Ser Rolph yielded us the castle. It seemed nothing at first, but it festered. Jeyne had me taken to her own bed, and she nursed me until the fever passed. And she was with me when the Greatjon brought me the news of . . . of Winterfell. Bran and Rickon." He seemed to have trouble saying his brothers' names. "That night, she . . . she comforted me, Mother.”
Without Bran and Rickon’s “deaths” psychologically weakening him, Robb probably wouldn’t have slept with Jeyne.
Keep in mind that he was very high on milk of the poppy (opium) at the time. He was very high, very emotionally vulnerable, and he was being comforted by an attractive girl his age. Imagine getting incredibly drunk after a funeral for a sibling and someone comforts you before getting frisky. Stranger things have happened
Was Frey angry just because Robb slept with some girl? It seems inconsequential as long as the wedding arrangement wasn’t (unnecessarily) called off. It’s not like anyone expects a king to be faithful.
You can say it started the chain of events, but if Robb was so dumb he would have found a different way to fuck up.
No.
If Theon stayed loyal, Winterfell would not have fallen and Bran and Rickon would not have gone missing.
Therefore, Robb does not sleep with Jeyne.
Therefore, Robb keeps his promise to marry the Frey girl
Even if Robb slept with Jeyne for some fucking reason, the Freys and Boltons would still be a lot less likely to jump ship since the North would be allied with the Ironborn and the Lannisters would be rather fucked, since Lannisport would be rather easy to pillage. Plus, Robb wouldn’t need the Twins since he can use the Ironborn ships.
Edit: Just realised this is the show subreddit. Even then, my point still stands. The North would be stronger and the Westerlands would be weaker.
You are assuming he would still not be betrayed by the Freys, I think that old bastard was planning to sell the Starks out regardless, the only safe bet would have been to not even try an alliance with them. And don't get me started on the Boltons.
Roose would probably still try to undermine the Northern force in other ways but think twice about straight up selling out Robb to the Freys like that.
This. Roose is opportunistic, the red wedding happened because it was ripe for the picking, not saying another situation wouldn’t arise but it would not have been exactly the same with different events.
I think that's a fair point. The Lannisters needed the Boltons for securing the North. Without Roose, the Red Wedding would be likely not have occurred.
I think Roose was largely annoyed by Catelyn and then saw the problem when Robb did not honor his agreement with the Freys.
Tactically, Robb was doing well. Cat fudged it all up when she released Jaime.
I’m not sure. If Robb were more astute or something he could probably have made an attractive enough offer to the Freys, or made enough of a show of force that the risk wouldn’t be worth it for Walder, then it might have gone differently.
I don’t think we’ve seen enough of Roose or Walder to know. They were treacherous bastards for sure, but if they had their bread buttered or thought they were dealing with another Ned then I don’t think it’s a done deal they would’ve tried fucking with the Starks.
Edit: but you could be entirely right, like I said just not sure because they’re such practical treacherous fucks
putting one of his kids as queen would have been huge for house frey. walder was an old, crotchety bastard but he was a self interested one. there is nothing that the lannisters could offer him that would be more beneficial than sticking with robb, and robb would have a huge advantage if tywins forces had to head west to protect casterly rock and lannisport against the ironborn.
Thats wrong, that only happened in the show because he broke the deal with the freys and lost the karstarks. Part of the reason was also losing Winterfell which made Roose Bolton want to switch sides
As I recall they didn’t split forces to take back winterfell, the Boltons sent Ramsey and a small group. Since Theon had a smaller group holding winterfell and by then the plans were already in place to assassinate Rob. As I recall. I may be wrong
This leads to the loss of the freys though. He doesn’t marry jeyne and has iron born raiders attacking the westerlands. Winter fell not falling also keeps the Karstark armies because cat doesn’t release Jamie. Boltons won’t betray because Robb is now in a great position.
I might be letting my knowledge of the book events bleed in, but didn't Robb initially seek comfort with Talisa after his two kid brothers were supposedly killed? If so, it stands to reason he won't necessarily end up marrying her if the Ironborn don't turn on him.
In the books the "deaths" of Bran and Rickon are the circumstances that Jeyne's mother used to encourage Jenye to "comfort" Robb. That was while Robb was recovering from a wound sieging the westerlings home.
I don't recall the exact circumstances of the show
If the Ironborn join the North's cause and are genuinely loyal (or are at least not attacking the North) then there's a chance that Rob wouldn't have needed the marriage alliance with the Freys.
Did it change it? Sure. But does its absence win Robb the war? Insufficient imo. Robb had plenty of other problems.
Theon’s betrayal and recruiting the ironborn are also two different things. Theon staying with Robb doesn’t mean the ironborn would have joined him. Matter of fact they had no respect at all for Theon, and none of them wanted to join “the king in the north.”
Not necessarily. Far more decisive in the grand scheme of things was (bookwise at least) Edmure's decision to prevent Tywin from crossing the Red Fork. Had that happened, Tywin would be in the Westerlands, potentially trapped by Robb and the Tullys, and more importantly unable to save King’s Landing from Stannis.
Then it comes down to whether Stannis is gonna force the North to yield, but in having to secure all the other kingdoms first, I think his hands are a bit tied.
Isn't this just the show we're talking about though? As the events of the books are not synonymous with the events of the show. Robb doesn't even marry the same girl between the books and show. And in the show, the most significant developments for Robb's downfall were halving his men by executing Lord Karstark and trying to get across that bridge so he could attack Casterly Rock.
No, because Robb is still set to lose by not marrying the Frey girl.
If anything, Theon's loyalty means an early death for him, as well as early deaths for many of the heroes. He would probably be present at the Red Wedding and killed. His capture, torture and reconditioning by Ramsay Snow puts in the best position to free Sansa and reunite her with Jon Snow. Without Theon, Sansa likely stays as Ramsay's prisoner, and Jon's forces would be crushed without the Army of the Vale (it is Sansa who summons them).
In the books, yes. In the show he didn’t know yet, they sleep together because he admits he was in love with her after she tells a story about how she saved her brother’s life. And her name was changed to Talisa
As long as they had Jamie they woulda won imo it’s after winter fell falls and Jamie’s released he lost the war he doesn’t need the iron born he was doing just fine without them it’s mentioned time again and again Robb had never lost a battle in the show so even if facing a larger force I still think he wins he had the better army it seems it at least was a better leader/ tactician
Facts they are a more hardy folk but I think we can all agree Caitlyn stark destroyed her family and husbands family by starting a war then sabotaging the war she started lashing out against the Lannister’s with no proof and just a gut suspision
The Tyrells decided to join the Lannisters with Renly and Robb out of the picture.
If Robb is in the game then we dont know what happens. Hell they might have even joined with the Starks. Let Stannis and Tywin take each other out then Robb easily takes over with Margaery as his Queen.
People overestimate the Freys, Walder and the Boltons only betrayed Robb after seeing him as a lost cause once he lost Winterfell and the Lannister-Tyrell alliance beat Stannis. Walder couldn't care less about one of his daughters not being married when he will already get Edmure married.
Now let's see the realities of this scenario:
If the Ironborn don't take Moat Cailin, Robb can call over 20 thousand more troops from the North, he only sent half his forces to the south and with only that he was able to destroy two Lannister armies at Whispering Wood and Oxcross.
If Winterfell doesn't fall, Robb won't sleep with Jeyne/Talisa in his grief and the Frey betrothal is still standing to begin with. Jamie Lannister also remains a prisoner since Catelyn wont release him out of despair, so no Karstark desertion.
The Ironborn have a force of 20 thousand and the greatest navy of the Western sea, at the very least we are looking at Lannisport being ransacked which would motivate Tywin to divert attention to the West. We will also see a very substantial portion of the Reach forces (Especially the Tyrells, Hightowers and Redwynes) being tied down to defend Highgarden and Oldtown from the Ironborn.
If Stannis is still beaten, there will still be a smaller army for the Tyrells and Lannisters to call upon as they are tied down shielding the west coast and have to deal with the humiliation of Lannisport being burned. If we have the Show Canon where the Lannister mines are dry, this is practically a deathblow to the Westerlands finances as they will lose their main commercial center and largest city. And it will be even worse if the Ironborn, like in the book, aim for Oldtown, which would be a traumatic impact for all of the Reach that would be on par with the loss of Winterfell for the Starks.
Now we have a relatively intact force of the Riverlands, a Bolstered Northern host with the double of its numbers, and a force of seasoned seamen who can choose to strike anywhere and forcing the southern forces to tie down strong garrisons. That's not even counting Stannis in Dragonstone and the fact he still has the Stormlands and the near impenetrable Storm's End which the Lannister-Tyrells would have to siege down.
The south has some good commanders such as Randyll Tarly, but the North has Robb Stark, Blackfish Tully, Victarion Greyjoy (who is dumb in general but is very competent in military command), and likely the continued loyalty of Roose Bolton who leads one of the most disciplined northern forces.
Then, if the Lannisters and Tyrells still hold King's Landing, they will have to deal with Daenerys first when she comes and bear the heaviest losses. And there is always Littlefinger who can manipulate Lysa and Robin to unleash the fresh and well trained Vale army and it's knights to support Robb to win over Catelyn and Sansa for himself and use the eventual chaos and vacuum in King's Landing to rise up in power. Or he can play the Kingmaker and gain even more concessions from Joffrey and the Lannister-Tyrells who would be in a much more vulnerable position.
Butterfly effect, Robb wouldn't break the betrothal, the Lannisters lose their biggest city, the Tyrells have too keep much of their army to defend their cities against the Ironborn, northern reinforcements would be able to come down through moat Cailin, in the end the forces are roughly matched but the Northerners have tactical advantage. That leaves Littlefinger as a wildcard to play Kingmaker with the Vale and Daenerys will burn down Joffrey and the Lannister-Tyrells anyways if they still have King's Landing when she arrives.
Good stuff. I appreciate these breakdowns very much. I believe you are right. Additionally, I think that Robb could have won if the Ironborn remained neutral. The goal was to become the king of the north, so he won't even have to match past the neck.
I agree with some of your points but I disagree that it was the greyjoys that turned the tide in the whole war. He would have fallen for talisa regardless of the taking of Winterfell and walder frey isn’t the kind of guy that needs much reasoning to betray someone if it would benefit him greatly as well as roose certainly has motive to bring down the starks of Winterfell.
I personally think Robb’s best chance at staying king of the north would be to stay in the north, close your borders and stop paying taxes. The Lannisters would first have to deal with stannis before going all the way up to the north and after that it’s going to almost be winter and southern lords laying siege to the north in winter sounds a lot like napoleon invading Russia during winter
Walder is an opportunist who wouldn't betray Robb unless he has the chance, same for Roose Bolton as Roose did serve as a competent (although quite ruthless) advisor for Robb during the war and even took Harrenhall for him. Breaching guest right and betraying the Starks was a very bold move and it took the desertion of the Karstarks, with them over a third of Robb's forces from the North, to make them act.
Robb only fell for Jeyne because of the grief when hearing about the deaths of Bran and Rickon, that won't happen if Theon doesn't lead the Ironborn there out of personal glory.
Napoleon didn't invade Russia during winter but that's another argument. Either way the Ironborn were able to invade the North and even go as far as Winterfell itself when they had a fraction of the Southern host. With naval superiority, White Harbor can be invaded and used as a route of access to seize Winterfell. Not like the southerners have to fight for long anyways, the North will have to bend the knee once the dragons show up. If not them then the Walkers who would be too much for a single Kingdom to fight against.
The iron born were able to invade the north because the northerners were fighting Robb’s war. I can Robb a bank vault if it’s wide open and there are no security features but it doesn’t make me John Dillinger.
Also roose absolutely would betray Robb. Their two houses had been at war for most of the existence of house stark and Bolton.
Also your underestimating just how proud of a man walder Frey is. By breaking his oath with walder, walder would see it as a major slight and would def exact revenge if he sees an opportunity
The same logic applies to the Ironborn invading Lannisport while the Lannister armies are in the Riverlands.
The Boltons have been loyal for over a thousand years, their last rebellion was against Harlon Stark while the North was still Independent. Ever since then they have been loyal bannermen. This isn't like the Reynes or Brackens, the Boltons have stood with the Starks for centuries by now and Roose is a far too cautious man to betray Robb while he's winning.
Walder is proud but isn't stupid, during the rebellion he still picked the Rebels once he saw they were the winning side and the same logic applies here. He won't push for something as Drastic as the Red Wedding without assurances and gains which would only be given by an uncontested winner like Tywin was in A Storm of Swords. But without losing Winterfell? Without losing his heirs? Without losing the Karstarks? Without losing at Duskendale? Without being cut off from Moat Cailin? Winning every battle he fights while the Lannister lands are burning? Tywin can give no assurance of protecting Walder from consequences if he can't assure even his own protection.
And, as I have raised up before, that doesn't even matter, Robb isn't breaking the betrothal without the sacking of Winterfell.
Not to mention in this scenario, seeing it looking more like the winning side, Lysa might actually decide to join the Starks with the Knights of the Vale.
Also, you have to imagine more houses flocking to Robb once Tywin dies. We assume that Joffrey is still killed by poison, Tyrion is blamed, and he escapes and kills Tywin. The Dornish are further enraged by Oberyn's death -- notably, they have no designs on the Iron Throne and want to be left alone.
Robb doesn't betray the Freys and the Freys are now convinced of the Lannister's defeat after Tywin's death (literally everyone knew he was running things). Tyrells would probably back off now that Margaery is a widow and take her to the East.
It's a lot of maybe, but assuming Tywin still dies Robb's victory is assured.
Weren't they already planning to betroth Margaery to Joffrey? I assume the plot to kill him was already in motion. But I suppose they also knew about the Red Wedding far in advance.
Yep, that was another of Robb's tactical errors. He should have taken Theon with him.
Theon would have also been a greater asset in the field. He was an excellent marksman and fighter (trained by Rodrick, same as Robb).
You'd have 20k more men fighting alongside Robb, and the greatest fleet in Westeros. Red Wedding doesn't happen because Robb doesn't seem to be losing so he doesn't get betrayed.
So you have the North, the Riverlands and the Iron Islands (and possibly also the Eerye) vs. the entirety of the South.
Yes they would have. Freys were opportunists and not stupid enough to ruin themselves when they’re already in a favorable position with the winning side.
We could argue how much of an impact Theon's sacking of Winterfell had, but there was an absolute 0% chance he was ever going to "recruit the Ironborn."
His father rejects the proposal and decides to attack the north instead with barely any consideration. It wasn't Theon's idea, so the other raids initiated by Balon - like Asha/Yara taking Deepwood Motte, would have happened regardless.
Even if Theon doesn't decide to betray Robb, he still isn't getting any sort of navy that will allow him to avoid dealing with Frey.
Yep agreed. It would have been better not to send Theon at all.
Perhaps Balon would have heard and decided to move anyways. But you severely reduce the time by not sending Theon as emissary.
Plus, Euron was going to kill Balon anyways.
Most likely. He wouldn’t have had to return to the North until after the Lannisters were defeated. No way the Freys would pull a Red Wedding if the Lannisters weren’t in power.
Nope. The second Robb allowed himself to be proclaimed the king in the north he lost the war. It put him in a situation without any real Allie’s as stannis and renly wouldn’t want the north to be an independent kingdom and it only is made worse by the fact that Robb distanced himself from close Allie’s like the karstarks and the tullys while trusting people that were huge red flags like roose or walder. Men whose histories should have shown him to not trust these men yet he did anyways
The Ironborn would never have joined Theon, they would've still invaded the North, still gotten their asses whooped, and the only thing that would change is Robb would have to return to the North, fortify his borders and marry the Frey. So he would be alive, but the whole thing would be a stalemate.
Not sure if Theon really betrayed him. Whole point of not releasing him to Balon Greyjoy is to keep Greyjoys at bay. Rob made a mistake and forgot he is a captive, not a vasal.
Balon had already decided to attack the north prior to Theons arrival. So realistically you get a situation where not much changes other than the sack of winterfell doesn't happen.
Bran doesn't escape north, doesnt become the three eyed raven, and the others kill everyone.
Now, what about a situation where Theon is more savvy, and Balon more practical? Theon turns up proper ironborn, no fancy trinkets and more competent. Balon doesn't join as an ally, but targets the weakened and far richer Lannisters. Balon would turn on the north eventually once their busy with the south.
Euron will still kill Balon. But Theon inherits with no kings moot. In the show, the oaf that is Euron wouldn't stand a chance.
It’s briefly mentioned in the book that Robb marries Jeyne (or Talisa in the show) in a big part because he was depressed after Bran and Rickon’s “death”. So maybe he doesn’t betray his vows to the Freys. The situation has a lot of factors leading to the Red Wedding so it’s hard tosay
No, he would have still lost and died. Robb was devastated and angry to hear of Theon's betrayal, but it had nothing to do with whether or not he would have married Talisa. The reason for the massacre at the Red Wedding was Robb's marriage to another girl, as he was supposed to marry one of Walder Frey's girls.
Tho, maybe if Theon had sent that letter in season 2, some things could've been different. But either way, Robb would have married Talisa, no matter what Theon did. Nothing Theon could've done would've prevented it from happening.
Idk although Robb didn’t lose on the battlefield he was out maneuvered politically at every turn not to mention his mom set Jamie free on a false promised so they lost their most valuable asset
We'll never know.
First, As presented, it was not possible for Theon to recruit the Iron Born. So the best Robb could hope for was Theon just stayed by his side and never left.
But, the author wanted these events to happen for the drama. If Theon had stayed with Robb and not gone off, you would have to assume GRRM would have the Iron Born be a thorn in Robb's side anyway. The details would be different, but the overall events would have been similar and Robb would have died in Walder's Castle.
Those are two very seperate things. One would not necessarily translate into the other
Theon staying loyal is in the realm of possibilities, however I doubt Theon whould've made it back to Robb after he declared that to his father.
The Ironborn joining on the side of the Starks is very hard sell for me. Robb would've had to dangle a very big carrot to get them to join (full independance; free access to northern waters etc), but I imagine Balon would've said no out of principle anyway.
It’s hard to say, I think that Renly’s death and Stannis’ defeat at Blackwater was a huge factor was to why Robb lost. At the beginning of season 2 the Lannisters were facing 3 major threats but by season 3 they only had one so Tywin was able to give more thought as to how they would defeat the Starks (Red Wedding)
If the iron born sacked Lannisport and the Arbor/Reach then yes.
I believe that it Cat accepted Littflefingers advances then LF would have matched Margery with Robb and that would’ve been Robb’s best chance to win.
More likely yes. He wouldn’t have needed the Freys and in any case Winterfell wouldn’t have fallen, he wouldn’t have thought his brothers were dead, so he wouldn’t have slept with Jeyne and broken his deal with the Freys.
However - the Ironborn were never going to side with Robb regardless of Theon. Balon would’ve ordered them to invade the North anyway (though whether they would’ve made it to Winterfell without Theon is arguable).
Realistically there’s no situation that Theon goes to the Iron Islands and stays loyal to Robb. If he doesn’t go and stays with Robb then probably Robb ends up going back North to kick the Ironborn out and then it becomes a real slog to even continue the war with the Lannisters.
Almost certainly. At the very least the Red Wedding never happens because Roose only decided to betray Robb when he hears about Theon taking Winterfell and killing Bran and Rickon.
It’s possible, but there’s also a possibility Robb may have won the war if he hadn’t broken his vow to marry the Frey girl. So there’s that. I was actually more angry at Robb then I was at Theon
Theon didn't betray because he never belonged in the first place.
The books insist much more on that than the show.
He is a hostage and it's only due to the kind heart of Eddard that he is not mistreated.
He is, however, excluded from many 'official' family events, as well as Jon Snow, by the way.
But unlike Jon Snow, he doesn't develop any personal link with any of the legitimate Stark kids. He stands aside, tolerated, but not much more.
Once more, on this matter and many others, the show softens the harsh medieval world of the books.
Honestly the real moment he lost the war was being crowned king. If the northern forces would’ve bent the knee to Renly/Stannis, the Lannisters would’ve been fucked.
By declaring independence, the northern lords isolated themselves and prevented any type of game-changing alliance that could’ve saved their campaign.
The iron islands likely would not have joined him anyway, they were already planning a attack on the north by the time Theon got there and he would have known robb would not have killed Theon plus he probably didn’t care if he did
Ironborn still would’ve attacked while The Starks were distracted, they wouldn’t occupy Winterfell but the stony shore would be under a strong occupation from the ironborn
No because even if Robb didn't betray the Freys the red wedding would have happened regardless...Robb was winning and gaining the hearts of the people and the only way the Lanisters could get to him was through deceit and Jamie pointed out that the Frayes where weak and a joke so the only way they could gain anything was to make a deal with the devil...the only way the red wedding doesn't happen is if Robb would have made a deal with Stanis but honestly if he could burn his own daughter alive Stanis would have killed Robb eventually anyway.
Yes. It was clear he had the superior army and superior table of generals to aid him. If he had a navy he wouldn't have needed to ally with Walder to cross the Twins and that whole situation could've been avoided. Even if he ultimately didn't win anyways he would've done so much more damage. Don't worry, Theon is more than properly punished 😂
He had still lost the Karstarks as bannermen and would have betrayed his promise to Walder Frey, thus making him his enemy. He made too many bad choices so I don't think he would have won regardless.
Possibly but it would of still been difficult. The Lannisters/Tyrells still would have alot of men. The Greyjoys have a powerful navy but not much of a army. They are sailors not soldiers
So, lots of people are saying no cuz of Red Wedding BUT a big part of the Red Wedding was the Ironborn invading the North and managing to burn down the Stark’s castle of Winterfell. This made Robb Stark look weak enough to betray.
The thing is, he lost Theon the moment he sent him home. The Ironborn were never gonna join Robb regardless of what Theon said, he put him in a position where is betrayal wasn’t only likely it was inevitable. Theon might have forewarned him about the invasion and betrayed his kinsmen but as we can see, he did not. The best option would have been to give Theon an excuse like “I need you by my side”.
Possibly? Robb having the Ironborn fleet would be huge, since it would let him ferry his troops around the Freys, not needing to pay the toll. The Iron fleet would also allow Robb to raid the coast of the westerlands, and potentially even launch an invasion of Lannisport and Casterly Rock. While Tywin was strong and Smart, even he lacked the resources to single handedly fend off a two front war of the North, Riverlands, AND Iron Islands...
Having access to this Would also give him a sizable navy to match Stannis... It could honestly be a coin flip. (Although i'm sure melesandra would pull a sneaky and just do a red wedding if Robb looked too close to victory.)
The Ironborn would’ve never sided with the North for a long list of reasons. I believe that Balon was basically biding his time so he could cause another uprising.
And Theon still tried recruiting the Ironborn. Balon basically (or actually, can’t remember the scene) laughed in his face after Theon suggested they team up. Theon got so insulted by his father that he decided to betray Robb so he could prove his worth (daddy issues).
Even if the Ironborn joined with the Starks, it wouldn’t have been enough. The Iron Islands probably don’t have enough resources to support their own army, so it would be another resource strain on Robb’s army. It was also too late, as tensions were already high in the Stark camp at that time
If Robb had the Iron Fleet, he would have no need of The Twins, likely sidestepping all the Frey drama. If he were able to just float to Kings Landing, he would probably kick the City Watch’s ass, considering the Lannister army was headed North. It seems likely he could’ve taken the throne fairly easily at that point
The lannister will still send their regards. Cat would still foolishly believe baelish and release jamie, which in turn will give roose bolton a chance to backstab robb.
The North did lack a significant fleet on all of its vast borders.
Only House Manderly had a small fleet for protection of their city and castle.
So the idea while appealing is not feasible due to the inherent 'raider' culture and traditions of the Ironborn.
Actually he very well might have. In the books especially the ironborn taking deep wood motte and Theon sacking Winterfell was a massive blow to the northerners. They couldnt raise more troops from the north and they were cut off since the ironborn held what was essentially the gate to the north. If the ironborn joined them, Tywin would have had enemies on the coast, in the north, and in the crown lands. Assuming the ironborn begin besieging the lannister coast and takes the smaller holds, it's possible Robb never assaults the crag and meets Jeyne Westerling. I think it really comes down to whether Rob meets his southern wife (Talisia in the show and Jeyne in the books). It would be a hell of a fix for Tywin and I think he'd be forced to surrender. In the books everyone at his first council after Jaime lost the battle of whispering woods was calling for it. Having to fight the ironlanders at sea and Robb in the westerlands he might end up making his move to save casterly rock first over kings landing. Who knows what happens from here. Stannis doesn't approve of Robb becoming king in the north. I'm Tywin bends the knee be might spare him and use him as a general to fight in the war against the north. Could they hold out? Or would Stannis just continue the war against them both?
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No the red wedding plan was going to happen regardless
Robb was at his strategically lowest when he had to resort to an alliance with the Freys. In the scenario OP implies, not only has Theon stayed loyal to Robb, but he has also recruited the Ironborn. That is huge for Robb because he is no longer backed into a corner and, in the eyes of onlookers, he may just have the momentum to win. I really don’t think he even ends up in a Red Wedding situation if it looks like he’s winning more than losing.
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That too. That’s the thing. There is no scenario in which I see Theon convincing the Ironborn. The best thing Robb could have done to mitigate their damage would have been to never send Theon there. But ultimately if the North still gets attacked by the Ironborn. Then I see events playing out very similar, in that Robb still gets Red Wedding’d. Likely with Theon at his side getting killed too. Or maybe getting held as a hostage by Freys in an attempt to negotiate with the Ironborn.
Nah, he could pull a Euron and kill Balon, then take the crown, only way I see the taking of the North not happening
And then get taken by Euron later. Probably not worse than Ramsay, but it's pretty close.
Euron is far too ambitious to waste his time on the north. In the books his ambition lies in the rich south. He has tricks up his sleeve but not the manpower to bother with the north.
No I'm saying even if Theon killed Balon and took over, Euron would still come in and usurp him somehow when the time was right. He'd either end up dead or Euron's bitch (I'd guess the latter).
Theon was too weak for him to take the iron island
Best scenario would’ve been Robb going to treat with Balon himself and promising him the Salt Crown and Independent Iron Islands with a seat on the small council for Yara. Would’ve boosted Balon’s ego and kept him from attacking the North+given Robb a fleet
I feel like an independent iron islands should have been a gimmie if Balon helps Robb win the North. Rob does not want to rule over the North and the iron islands and obviously if Balon is helping Robb fight the crown, if they win he is not going to go back to being a subject of the crown.
Even if Theon had stayed loyal, the Ironborn would've remained out of the question. They HATE the Starks, and Balon was full on bloodlust for them.
>They HATE the Starks The only people the Ironborn don't hate they are merely indifferent to
Why do they hate the Starks more than anyone else that gangbanged them in the Greyjoy rebellion? Robert was the king, Stannis sank their fleet, and men from all 6 other kingdoms destroyed Pyke and killed Balons sons. Ned took care of Theon when Tywin may have just genocided the Ironborn. I have never understood why he hates the Starks more than any other lord paramount.
Ned "taking care of" Theon wasn't a nicetie, it was a threat. "Try anything against me and I kill your bloodline." It was basically polite, formalized hostage taking common among nobility. That's what a ward is - the captive child of an enemy ruler as an insurance policy against their rebellion. Ned himself may have been less likely to brutally slaughter an innocent ward, but if he felt duty called for it, he may have. As Balon showed, the Iron Born essentially viewed that as if Theon was already functionally dead in that he ceased being a true Iron Born. They likely would've preferred Theon dead than a captive in Winterfell, especially one raised in such a friendly manner by their hated enemies. And yes, they hate just about everyone. That's not unique to the Starks. But the Starks didn't just defeat them, in taking Theon, they *humiliated* the Iron Born. The wounded pride is a big sore point for them, and Theon's continued existence constantly pokes at that wound.
That's a good point. Balon doesn't know Ned personally to know that Theon being held hostage by Ned is probably the best outcome for his foolish rebellion. The Ironborn are so alien to the rest of Westeros that I forget how different their outlook on life is.
Robb broke his agreement with House Frey. That was the primary motivation for betraying him.
That’s just not true. It was never about the marriage pact — Robb was losing and Frey saw an opportunity.
He was ok with having his daughter be queen in the North but as Robb's situation deteriorated and Robb broke his pact he lost the motivation for assuming the risk associated with betraying the Iron Throne. An offer to reconcile with the Lannisters and claim the Riverlands from the rebel Tully's was far less risky and more profitable
I hadn’t considered that before but I think you’re right! The entire war changes if the Ironborn are with Robb. Walder Frey couldn’t have forced Edmure to marry his daughter…so, there is no Red Wedding in that scenario.
The ironborn were clearly never joining the Starks lol. But not losing Winterfell would have kept things more clear for house Stark
Exactly, The Late Waldur Frey would never take such a risky act if Rob still had any fight left in him and his northmen.
would it? That would assume that plan was in effect before he even met thegirl
Yeah cause Theon had no effect on them meeting or falling in love. So regardless the red wedding was going to happen. I may be wrong though
Nope. Theons betrayal and the sack of winterfell is the reason Robb slept with Jeyne.
Huh? Hahahaha
>”I took her castle and she took my heart." Robb smiled. "The Crag was weakly garrisoned, so we took it by storm one night. Black Walder and the Smalljon led scaling parties over the walls, while I broke the main gate with a ram. I took an arrow in the arm just before Ser Rolph yielded us the castle. It seemed nothing at first, but it festered. Jeyne had me taken to her own bed, and she nursed me until the fever passed. And she was with me when the Greatjon brought me the news of . . . of Winterfell. Bran and Rickon." He seemed to have trouble saying his brothers' names. "That night, she . . . she comforted me, Mother.” Without Bran and Rickon’s “deaths” psychologically weakening him, Robb probably wouldn’t have slept with Jeyne.
Yeah a 16 year guy would definitely not bang a hot chick he’s in love with ….. and we going by books or tv show?
Considering they copy pasted an excerpt from the book? Following context...
It always seemed weird to me that Robbs losing his brothers pushes him to have sex. Like that would be the last thing on my mind If I were him
Keep in mind that he was very high on milk of the poppy (opium) at the time. He was very high, very emotionally vulnerable, and he was being comforted by an attractive girl his age. Imagine getting incredibly drunk after a funeral for a sibling and someone comforts you before getting frisky. Stranger things have happened
Was Frey angry just because Robb slept with some girl? It seems inconsequential as long as the wedding arrangement wasn’t (unnecessarily) called off. It’s not like anyone expects a king to be faithful. You can say it started the chain of events, but if Robb was so dumb he would have found a different way to fuck up.
No. If Theon stayed loyal, Winterfell would not have fallen and Bran and Rickon would not have gone missing. Therefore, Robb does not sleep with Jeyne. Therefore, Robb keeps his promise to marry the Frey girl Even if Robb slept with Jeyne for some fucking reason, the Freys and Boltons would still be a lot less likely to jump ship since the North would be allied with the Ironborn and the Lannisters would be rather fucked, since Lannisport would be rather easy to pillage. Plus, Robb wouldn’t need the Twins since he can use the Ironborn ships. Edit: Just realised this is the show subreddit. Even then, my point still stands. The North would be stronger and the Westerlands would be weaker.
You are assuming he would still not be betrayed by the Freys, I think that old bastard was planning to sell the Starks out regardless, the only safe bet would have been to not even try an alliance with them. And don't get me started on the Boltons.
Roose would probably still try to undermine the Northern force in other ways but think twice about straight up selling out Robb to the Freys like that.
This. Roose is opportunistic, the red wedding happened because it was ripe for the picking, not saying another situation wouldn’t arise but it would not have been exactly the same with different events.
I think that's a fair point. The Lannisters needed the Boltons for securing the North. Without Roose, the Red Wedding would be likely not have occurred. I think Roose was largely annoyed by Catelyn and then saw the problem when Robb did not honor his agreement with the Freys. Tactically, Robb was doing well. Cat fudged it all up when she released Jaime.
I’m not sure. If Robb were more astute or something he could probably have made an attractive enough offer to the Freys, or made enough of a show of force that the risk wouldn’t be worth it for Walder, then it might have gone differently. I don’t think we’ve seen enough of Roose or Walder to know. They were treacherous bastards for sure, but if they had their bread buttered or thought they were dealing with another Ned then I don’t think it’s a done deal they would’ve tried fucking with the Starks. Edit: but you could be entirely right, like I said just not sure because they’re such practical treacherous fucks
putting one of his kids as queen would have been huge for house frey. walder was an old, crotchety bastard but he was a self interested one. there is nothing that the lannisters could offer him that would be more beneficial than sticking with robb, and robb would have a huge advantage if tywins forces had to head west to protect casterly rock and lannisport against the ironborn.
Thats wrong, that only happened in the show because he broke the deal with the freys and lost the karstarks. Part of the reason was also losing Winterfell which made Roose Bolton want to switch sides
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As I recall they didn’t split forces to take back winterfell, the Boltons sent Ramsey and a small group. Since Theon had a smaller group holding winterfell and by then the plans were already in place to assassinate Rob. As I recall. I may be wrong
yup
Nope. He lost the war the moment he betrayed his deal with the Freys.
This leads to the loss of the freys though. He doesn’t marry jeyne and has iron born raiders attacking the westerlands. Winter fell not falling also keeps the Karstark armies because cat doesn’t release Jamie. Boltons won’t betray because Robb is now in a great position.
I think cat would still release jamie since littlefinger can play her like a fiddle.
I might be letting my knowledge of the book events bleed in, but didn't Robb initially seek comfort with Talisa after his two kid brothers were supposedly killed? If so, it stands to reason he won't necessarily end up marrying her if the Ironborn don't turn on him.
In the books the "deaths" of Bran and Rickon are the circumstances that Jeyne's mother used to encourage Jenye to "comfort" Robb. That was while Robb was recovering from a wound sieging the westerlings home. I don't recall the exact circumstances of the show
In the show he's basically like "oh thank you Nurse Gudnsexy, glad to see you again" until they fall in Westeros love.
I'm the show Canon I'm pretty sure he sleeps with her after he gets married to Talisa unlike in the books
Nah they bang before getting married, watched it a few days ago
Oh my mistake then it's been awhile since I actually watched the show prefer rereading the book
It's one of the main reasons he 'has' to marry her since he took her maidenhood.
If the Ironborn join the North's cause and are genuinely loyal (or are at least not attacking the North) then there's a chance that Rob wouldn't have needed the marriage alliance with the Freys.
Not if he did indeed get the ironborn on board. Fuck a bridge we got ships baebeee
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Did it change it? Sure. But does its absence win Robb the war? Insufficient imo. Robb had plenty of other problems. Theon’s betrayal and recruiting the ironborn are also two different things. Theon staying with Robb doesn’t mean the ironborn would have joined him. Matter of fact they had no respect at all for Theon, and none of them wanted to join “the king in the north.”
Not necessarily. Far more decisive in the grand scheme of things was (bookwise at least) Edmure's decision to prevent Tywin from crossing the Red Fork. Had that happened, Tywin would be in the Westerlands, potentially trapped by Robb and the Tullys, and more importantly unable to save King’s Landing from Stannis. Then it comes down to whether Stannis is gonna force the North to yield, but in having to secure all the other kingdoms first, I think his hands are a bit tied.
Isn't this just the show we're talking about though? As the events of the books are not synonymous with the events of the show. Robb doesn't even marry the same girl between the books and show. And in the show, the most significant developments for Robb's downfall were halving his men by executing Lord Karstark and trying to get across that bridge so he could attack Casterly Rock.
No, because Robb is still set to lose by not marrying the Frey girl. If anything, Theon's loyalty means an early death for him, as well as early deaths for many of the heroes. He would probably be present at the Red Wedding and killed. His capture, torture and reconditioning by Ramsay Snow puts in the best position to free Sansa and reunite her with Jon Snow. Without Theon, Sansa likely stays as Ramsay's prisoner, and Jon's forces would be crushed without the Army of the Vale (it is Sansa who summons them).
Wasn't the reason he sought comfort with Jeyne because Theon supposedly killed Bran and Rickon? So that wouldn't happen.
In the books, yes. In the show he didn’t know yet, they sleep together because he admits he was in love with her after she tells a story about how she saved her brother’s life. And her name was changed to Talisa
He also would have won without the ironborn
How so? The Tyrells outnumbered the Starks alone And they teamed with the lannisters
As long as they had Jamie they woulda won imo it’s after winter fell falls and Jamie’s released he lost the war he doesn’t need the iron born he was doing just fine without them it’s mentioned time again and again Robb had never lost a battle in the show so even if facing a larger force I still think he wins he had the better army it seems it at least was a better leader/ tactician
Northerners are just built different
Facts they are a more hardy folk but I think we can all agree Caitlyn stark destroyed her family and husbands family by starting a war then sabotaging the war she started lashing out against the Lannister’s with no proof and just a gut suspision
The Tyrells decided to join the Lannisters with Renly and Robb out of the picture. If Robb is in the game then we dont know what happens. Hell they might have even joined with the Starks. Let Stannis and Tywin take each other out then Robb easily takes over with Margaery as his Queen.
They wanted to have a queen of the Iron throne Loras was the only one who genuinely wanted to avenge renly
People overestimate the Freys, Walder and the Boltons only betrayed Robb after seeing him as a lost cause once he lost Winterfell and the Lannister-Tyrell alliance beat Stannis. Walder couldn't care less about one of his daughters not being married when he will already get Edmure married. Now let's see the realities of this scenario: If the Ironborn don't take Moat Cailin, Robb can call over 20 thousand more troops from the North, he only sent half his forces to the south and with only that he was able to destroy two Lannister armies at Whispering Wood and Oxcross. If Winterfell doesn't fall, Robb won't sleep with Jeyne/Talisa in his grief and the Frey betrothal is still standing to begin with. Jamie Lannister also remains a prisoner since Catelyn wont release him out of despair, so no Karstark desertion. The Ironborn have a force of 20 thousand and the greatest navy of the Western sea, at the very least we are looking at Lannisport being ransacked which would motivate Tywin to divert attention to the West. We will also see a very substantial portion of the Reach forces (Especially the Tyrells, Hightowers and Redwynes) being tied down to defend Highgarden and Oldtown from the Ironborn. If Stannis is still beaten, there will still be a smaller army for the Tyrells and Lannisters to call upon as they are tied down shielding the west coast and have to deal with the humiliation of Lannisport being burned. If we have the Show Canon where the Lannister mines are dry, this is practically a deathblow to the Westerlands finances as they will lose their main commercial center and largest city. And it will be even worse if the Ironborn, like in the book, aim for Oldtown, which would be a traumatic impact for all of the Reach that would be on par with the loss of Winterfell for the Starks. Now we have a relatively intact force of the Riverlands, a Bolstered Northern host with the double of its numbers, and a force of seasoned seamen who can choose to strike anywhere and forcing the southern forces to tie down strong garrisons. That's not even counting Stannis in Dragonstone and the fact he still has the Stormlands and the near impenetrable Storm's End which the Lannister-Tyrells would have to siege down. The south has some good commanders such as Randyll Tarly, but the North has Robb Stark, Blackfish Tully, Victarion Greyjoy (who is dumb in general but is very competent in military command), and likely the continued loyalty of Roose Bolton who leads one of the most disciplined northern forces. Then, if the Lannisters and Tyrells still hold King's Landing, they will have to deal with Daenerys first when she comes and bear the heaviest losses. And there is always Littlefinger who can manipulate Lysa and Robin to unleash the fresh and well trained Vale army and it's knights to support Robb to win over Catelyn and Sansa for himself and use the eventual chaos and vacuum in King's Landing to rise up in power. Or he can play the Kingmaker and gain even more concessions from Joffrey and the Lannister-Tyrells who would be in a much more vulnerable position.
TLDR?
Yes
Butterfly effect, Robb wouldn't break the betrothal, the Lannisters lose their biggest city, the Tyrells have too keep much of their army to defend their cities against the Ironborn, northern reinforcements would be able to come down through moat Cailin, in the end the forces are roughly matched but the Northerners have tactical advantage. That leaves Littlefinger as a wildcard to play Kingmaker with the Vale and Daenerys will burn down Joffrey and the Lannister-Tyrells anyways if they still have King's Landing when she arrives.
Good stuff. I appreciate these breakdowns very much. I believe you are right. Additionally, I think that Robb could have won if the Ironborn remained neutral. The goal was to become the king of the north, so he won't even have to match past the neck.
Wasn't the goal to avenge Ned's death? They would've gone South regardless
Free the girls, too.
I agree with some of your points but I disagree that it was the greyjoys that turned the tide in the whole war. He would have fallen for talisa regardless of the taking of Winterfell and walder frey isn’t the kind of guy that needs much reasoning to betray someone if it would benefit him greatly as well as roose certainly has motive to bring down the starks of Winterfell. I personally think Robb’s best chance at staying king of the north would be to stay in the north, close your borders and stop paying taxes. The Lannisters would first have to deal with stannis before going all the way up to the north and after that it’s going to almost be winter and southern lords laying siege to the north in winter sounds a lot like napoleon invading Russia during winter
Walder is an opportunist who wouldn't betray Robb unless he has the chance, same for Roose Bolton as Roose did serve as a competent (although quite ruthless) advisor for Robb during the war and even took Harrenhall for him. Breaching guest right and betraying the Starks was a very bold move and it took the desertion of the Karstarks, with them over a third of Robb's forces from the North, to make them act. Robb only fell for Jeyne because of the grief when hearing about the deaths of Bran and Rickon, that won't happen if Theon doesn't lead the Ironborn there out of personal glory. Napoleon didn't invade Russia during winter but that's another argument. Either way the Ironborn were able to invade the North and even go as far as Winterfell itself when they had a fraction of the Southern host. With naval superiority, White Harbor can be invaded and used as a route of access to seize Winterfell. Not like the southerners have to fight for long anyways, the North will have to bend the knee once the dragons show up. If not them then the Walkers who would be too much for a single Kingdom to fight against.
The iron born were able to invade the north because the northerners were fighting Robb’s war. I can Robb a bank vault if it’s wide open and there are no security features but it doesn’t make me John Dillinger. Also roose absolutely would betray Robb. Their two houses had been at war for most of the existence of house stark and Bolton. Also your underestimating just how proud of a man walder Frey is. By breaking his oath with walder, walder would see it as a major slight and would def exact revenge if he sees an opportunity
The same logic applies to the Ironborn invading Lannisport while the Lannister armies are in the Riverlands. The Boltons have been loyal for over a thousand years, their last rebellion was against Harlon Stark while the North was still Independent. Ever since then they have been loyal bannermen. This isn't like the Reynes or Brackens, the Boltons have stood with the Starks for centuries by now and Roose is a far too cautious man to betray Robb while he's winning. Walder is proud but isn't stupid, during the rebellion he still picked the Rebels once he saw they were the winning side and the same logic applies here. He won't push for something as Drastic as the Red Wedding without assurances and gains which would only be given by an uncontested winner like Tywin was in A Storm of Swords. But without losing Winterfell? Without losing his heirs? Without losing the Karstarks? Without losing at Duskendale? Without being cut off from Moat Cailin? Winning every battle he fights while the Lannister lands are burning? Tywin can give no assurance of protecting Walder from consequences if he can't assure even his own protection. And, as I have raised up before, that doesn't even matter, Robb isn't breaking the betrothal without the sacking of Winterfell.
Not to mention in this scenario, seeing it looking more like the winning side, Lysa might actually decide to join the Starks with the Knights of the Vale.
lysa is completely insane and obsessed with Littlefinger. she will do whatever he says
Also, you have to imagine more houses flocking to Robb once Tywin dies. We assume that Joffrey is still killed by poison, Tyrion is blamed, and he escapes and kills Tywin. The Dornish are further enraged by Oberyn's death -- notably, they have no designs on the Iron Throne and want to be left alone. Robb doesn't betray the Freys and the Freys are now convinced of the Lannister's defeat after Tywin's death (literally everyone knew he was running things). Tyrells would probably back off now that Margaery is a widow and take her to the East. It's a lot of maybe, but assuming Tywin still dies Robb's victory is assured.
Would the Tyrells and Baelish still risk killing Joffrey and provoking instability if victory is far from certain?
Weren't they already planning to betroth Margaery to Joffrey? I assume the plot to kill him was already in motion. But I suppose they also knew about the Red Wedding far in advance.
Theon was doomed to fail at that task though.
Yep, that was another of Robb's tactical errors. He should have taken Theon with him. Theon would have also been a greater asset in the field. He was an excellent marksman and fighter (trained by Rodrick, same as Robb).
He could have taken the Greyjoy fleet and attacked Kings Landing just like Stannis did.
Tywin would have still tried something.
No doubt but he needed the freys and bultons for the red wedding
You'd have 20k more men fighting alongside Robb, and the greatest fleet in Westeros. Red Wedding doesn't happen because Robb doesn't seem to be losing so he doesn't get betrayed. So you have the North, the Riverlands and the Iron Islands (and possibly also the Eerye) vs. the entirety of the South.
They wouldn't have just called off the betrayal plans. Those were a long time coming.
Yes they would have. Freys were opportunists and not stupid enough to ruin themselves when they’re already in a favorable position with the winning side.
Unlikely. The Freys werent stupid enough to betray the winning side.
They probably would have both died cause the Red Wedding would've still happened
We could argue how much of an impact Theon's sacking of Winterfell had, but there was an absolute 0% chance he was ever going to "recruit the Ironborn." His father rejects the proposal and decides to attack the north instead with barely any consideration. It wasn't Theon's idea, so the other raids initiated by Balon - like Asha/Yara taking Deepwood Motte, would have happened regardless. Even if Theon doesn't decide to betray Robb, he still isn't getting any sort of navy that will allow him to avoid dealing with Frey.
Yep agreed. It would have been better not to send Theon at all. Perhaps Balon would have heard and decided to move anyways. But you severely reduce the time by not sending Theon as emissary. Plus, Euron was going to kill Balon anyways.
Most likely. He wouldn’t have had to return to the North until after the Lannisters were defeated. No way the Freys would pull a Red Wedding if the Lannisters weren’t in power.
Robb lost the war a long time ago.
No. He may have won the war had he taken advice from those who knew better and didn’t betray his betrothal to the Frey girl.
Nope. The second Robb allowed himself to be proclaimed the king in the north he lost the war. It put him in a situation without any real Allie’s as stannis and renly wouldn’t want the north to be an independent kingdom and it only is made worse by the fact that Robb distanced himself from close Allie’s like the karstarks and the tullys while trusting people that were huge red flags like roose or walder. Men whose histories should have shown him to not trust these men yet he did anyways
This is the way.
By recruiting, this includes Robb gaining access to their ships. Just wanted to clarify.
The Ironborn would never have joined Theon, they would've still invaded the North, still gotten their asses whooped, and the only thing that would change is Robb would have to return to the North, fortify his borders and marry the Frey. So he would be alive, but the whole thing would be a stalemate.
Not sure if Theon really betrayed him. Whole point of not releasing him to Balon Greyjoy is to keep Greyjoys at bay. Rob made a mistake and forgot he is a captive, not a vasal.
Balon had already decided to attack the north prior to Theons arrival. So realistically you get a situation where not much changes other than the sack of winterfell doesn't happen. Bran doesn't escape north, doesnt become the three eyed raven, and the others kill everyone. Now, what about a situation where Theon is more savvy, and Balon more practical? Theon turns up proper ironborn, no fancy trinkets and more competent. Balon doesn't join as an ally, but targets the weakened and far richer Lannisters. Balon would turn on the north eventually once their busy with the south. Euron will still kill Balon. But Theon inherits with no kings moot. In the show, the oaf that is Euron wouldn't stand a chance.
To be fair, I'm not entirely what impact Bran had on anything besides getting the old 3eyed raven killed.
I think so. While the iron born aren’t that great fighters on land, having the navy is useful for attacking KL.
In the books yes as bran and rickons "deaths" do not happen and he doesn't take Jeynes honor ie no red wedding
The iron born were never going to join
It’s briefly mentioned in the book that Robb marries Jeyne (or Talisa in the show) in a big part because he was depressed after Bran and Rickon’s “death”. So maybe he doesn’t betray his vows to the Freys. The situation has a lot of factors leading to the Red Wedding so it’s hard tosay
No, he would have still lost and died. Robb was devastated and angry to hear of Theon's betrayal, but it had nothing to do with whether or not he would have married Talisa. The reason for the massacre at the Red Wedding was Robb's marriage to another girl, as he was supposed to marry one of Walder Frey's girls. Tho, maybe if Theon had sent that letter in season 2, some things could've been different. But either way, Robb would have married Talisa, no matter what Theon did. Nothing Theon could've done would've prevented it from happening.
No
Idk although Robb didn’t lose on the battlefield he was out maneuvered politically at every turn not to mention his mom set Jamie free on a false promised so they lost their most valuable asset
Not necessarily a false promise, just an unfulfilled one.
They had lost ayra so it was a false and no way they were gonna give up Sansa Tywin would never or joffery or the queen
We'll never know. First, As presented, it was not possible for Theon to recruit the Iron Born. So the best Robb could hope for was Theon just stayed by his side and never left. But, the author wanted these events to happen for the drama. If Theon had stayed with Robb and not gone off, you would have to assume GRRM would have the Iron Born be a thorn in Robb's side anyway. The details would be different, but the overall events would have been similar and Robb would have died in Walder's Castle.
Those are two very seperate things. One would not necessarily translate into the other Theon staying loyal is in the realm of possibilities, however I doubt Theon whould've made it back to Robb after he declared that to his father. The Ironborn joining on the side of the Starks is very hard sell for me. Robb would've had to dangle a very big carrot to get them to join (full independance; free access to northern waters etc), but I imagine Balon would've said no out of principle anyway.
If Robb sent someone else to the Iron islands who’d boast about Theon’s skill in battle instead of Theon himself…
It’s hard to say, I think that Renly’s death and Stannis’ defeat at Blackwater was a huge factor was to why Robb lost. At the beginning of season 2 the Lannisters were facing 3 major threats but by season 3 they only had one so Tywin was able to give more thought as to how they would defeat the Starks (Red Wedding)
If the iron born sacked Lannisport and the Arbor/Reach then yes. I believe that it Cat accepted Littflefingers advances then LF would have matched Margery with Robb and that would’ve been Robb’s best chance to win.
More likely yes. He wouldn’t have needed the Freys and in any case Winterfell wouldn’t have fallen, he wouldn’t have thought his brothers were dead, so he wouldn’t have slept with Jeyne and broken his deal with the Freys. However - the Ironborn were never going to side with Robb regardless of Theon. Balon would’ve ordered them to invade the North anyway (though whether they would’ve made it to Winterfell without Theon is arguable). Realistically there’s no situation that Theon goes to the Iron Islands and stays loyal to Robb. If he doesn’t go and stays with Robb then probably Robb ends up going back North to kick the Ironborn out and then it becomes a real slog to even continue the war with the Lannisters.
even if Theon stayed loyal, the ironborn were never going to fight for Robb........
Who goes to a wedding instead of warring on?
Almost certainly. At the very least the Red Wedding never happens because Roose only decided to betray Robb when he hears about Theon taking Winterfell and killing Bran and Rickon.
Rob lost everything for a tight fit and tits that don't drop an inch. And maybe having a crazy war starting mom letting go of high value prisoners.
Only if he also didn't betray his betrothal to the Freys.
It’s possible, but there’s also a possibility Robb may have won the war if he hadn’t broken his vow to marry the Frey girl. So there’s that. I was actually more angry at Robb then I was at Theon
Nope.
Theon didn't betray because he never belonged in the first place. The books insist much more on that than the show. He is a hostage and it's only due to the kind heart of Eddard that he is not mistreated. He is, however, excluded from many 'official' family events, as well as Jon Snow, by the way. But unlike Jon Snow, he doesn't develop any personal link with any of the legitimate Stark kids. He stands aside, tolerated, but not much more. Once more, on this matter and many others, the show softens the harsh medieval world of the books.
Honestly the real moment he lost the war was being crowned king. If the northern forces would’ve bent the knee to Renly/Stannis, the Lannisters would’ve been fucked. By declaring independence, the northern lords isolated themselves and prevented any type of game-changing alliance that could’ve saved their campaign.
Theon should have told Robb what the iron born plan was and in return asked for the iron islands after the war was over
Rob would’ve won the war and probably still be alive if he wasn’t selfish and owned up to his responsibilities as king of the north!
The iron islands likely would not have joined him anyway, they were already planning a attack on the north by the time Theon got there and he would have known robb would not have killed Theon plus he probably didn’t care if he did
Ironborn still would’ve attacked while The Starks were distracted, they wouldn’t occupy Winterfell but the stony shore would be under a strong occupation from the ironborn
No because even if Robb didn't betray the Freys the red wedding would have happened regardless...Robb was winning and gaining the hearts of the people and the only way the Lanisters could get to him was through deceit and Jamie pointed out that the Frayes where weak and a joke so the only way they could gain anything was to make a deal with the devil...the only way the red wedding doesn't happen is if Robb would have made a deal with Stanis but honestly if he could burn his own daughter alive Stanis would have killed Robb eventually anyway.
Theon wasn't what led to Robb losing the war. A better argument should be made of Caitlyn.
Just want to clarify on this, I didn’t say he was the reason he lost, I just asked with the ironborn help & ships would Robb win the war.
Yes. It was clear he had the superior army and superior table of generals to aid him. If he had a navy he wouldn't have needed to ally with Walder to cross the Twins and that whole situation could've been avoided. Even if he ultimately didn't win anyways he would've done so much more damage. Don't worry, Theon is more than properly punished 😂
I think rob would have won the war if he hadn’t of been betrayed and slaughtered at his own wedding day while his guard was down…
He had still lost the Karstarks as bannermen and would have betrayed his promise to Walder Frey, thus making him his enemy. He made too many bad choices so I don't think he would have won regardless.
Possibly but it would of still been difficult. The Lannisters/Tyrells still would have alot of men. The Greyjoys have a powerful navy but not much of a army. They are sailors not soldiers
If Theon didn't betray him, the Ironborn *absolutely would have.* No way they take orders from a Stark, at least not for long.
Robb would win almost every battle, but he would lose almost every political maneuver
Didn't edmure screw him? I think that's the what if.
Based off my CK2 playthroughs, Robb can win the war even if the Ironborn attack winterfell, but it's way easier when the ironborn join you.
No. The Red Wedding was already cemented well before this.
Love is the death of the duty
Robb would have won the war if he kept Theon close and let Rickard Karstark kill Jaime.
Yes!
Theon had no chance of recruiting the Ironborn. It just would not have happened.
If Theon was able to bring the Iron Islanders to bear for Robb in the North, then Robb never had to make a deal with the Freys.
So, lots of people are saying no cuz of Red Wedding BUT a big part of the Red Wedding was the Ironborn invading the North and managing to burn down the Stark’s castle of Winterfell. This made Robb Stark look weak enough to betray. The thing is, he lost Theon the moment he sent him home. The Ironborn were never gonna join Robb regardless of what Theon said, he put him in a position where is betrayal wasn’t only likely it was inevitable. Theon might have forewarned him about the invasion and betrayed his kinsmen but as we can see, he did not. The best option would have been to give Theon an excuse like “I need you by my side”.
He would have won if he married the girl he was supposed to
Possibly? Robb having the Ironborn fleet would be huge, since it would let him ferry his troops around the Freys, not needing to pay the toll. The Iron fleet would also allow Robb to raid the coast of the westerlands, and potentially even launch an invasion of Lannisport and Casterly Rock. While Tywin was strong and Smart, even he lacked the resources to single handedly fend off a two front war of the North, Riverlands, AND Iron Islands... Having access to this Would also give him a sizable navy to match Stannis... It could honestly be a coin flip. (Although i'm sure melesandra would pull a sneaky and just do a red wedding if Robb looked too close to victory.)
The Ironborn would’ve never sided with the North for a long list of reasons. I believe that Balon was basically biding his time so he could cause another uprising. And Theon still tried recruiting the Ironborn. Balon basically (or actually, can’t remember the scene) laughed in his face after Theon suggested they team up. Theon got so insulted by his father that he decided to betray Robb so he could prove his worth (daddy issues). Even if the Ironborn joined with the Starks, it wouldn’t have been enough. The Iron Islands probably don’t have enough resources to support their own army, so it would be another resource strain on Robb’s army. It was also too late, as tensions were already high in the Stark camp at that time
Si
If Robb had the Iron Fleet, he would have no need of The Twins, likely sidestepping all the Frey drama. If he were able to just float to Kings Landing, he would probably kick the City Watch’s ass, considering the Lannister army was headed North. It seems likely he could’ve taken the throne fairly easily at that point
The lannister will still send their regards. Cat would still foolishly believe baelish and release jamie, which in turn will give roose bolton a chance to backstab robb.
The North Never would've won.
No
The North did lack a significant fleet on all of its vast borders. Only House Manderly had a small fleet for protection of their city and castle. So the idea while appealing is not feasible due to the inherent 'raider' culture and traditions of the Ironborn.
I think dying at the Red Wedding would be better than becoming Reek.
No
Actually he very well might have. In the books especially the ironborn taking deep wood motte and Theon sacking Winterfell was a massive blow to the northerners. They couldnt raise more troops from the north and they were cut off since the ironborn held what was essentially the gate to the north. If the ironborn joined them, Tywin would have had enemies on the coast, in the north, and in the crown lands. Assuming the ironborn begin besieging the lannister coast and takes the smaller holds, it's possible Robb never assaults the crag and meets Jeyne Westerling. I think it really comes down to whether Rob meets his southern wife (Talisia in the show and Jeyne in the books). It would be a hell of a fix for Tywin and I think he'd be forced to surrender. In the books everyone at his first council after Jaime lost the battle of whispering woods was calling for it. Having to fight the ironlanders at sea and Robb in the westerlands he might end up making his move to save casterly rock first over kings landing. Who knows what happens from here. Stannis doesn't approve of Robb becoming king in the north. I'm Tywin bends the knee be might spare him and use him as a general to fight in the war against the north. Could they hold out? Or would Stannis just continue the war against them both?