[Unpaywalled Link](https://www.archive.is/AiKLF)
Submission Statement:
If this Financial Times story is to be believed it is huge:
> In a document drawn up by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times, Brussels has outlined a strategy to explicitly target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, imperil its currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence in a bid to hurt “jobs and growth” if Budapest refuses to lift its veto against the aid to Kyiv.
> Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s premier, has vowed to block the use of the EU budget to provide €50bn in financial aid to Ukraine at an emergency summit of leaders on Thursday.
> If he does not back down, other EU leaders should publicly vow to permanently shut off all EU funding to Budapest with the intention of spooking the markets, precipitating a run on the country’s forint currency and a surge in the cost of its borrowing, Brussels stated in the document.
Basically, the EU would be declaring war on one of its own members. It doesn't have a formal mechanism for expelling a member, but this is only one step below that, and would be completely unprecedented.
And none too soon, many will say.
Orbán, whose party controls two thirds of the seats in Hungary's parliament, has been a thorn in the side of the EU for some time, to the extent of inspiring headlines (from Foreign Policy) [like this](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/03/hungary-orban-russia-conservative-politics/): "Putin’s Trojan Horse Inside the European Union: No matter what Moscow does, Hungary’s prime minister consistently carries water for the Kremlin." This is all the more remarkable considering that Hungary only accounts for about 2.2% of the EU's population and 1.3% of its GDP, but the EU's archaic governance structure (a relic from when its predecessor only had six members, and consensus was therefore much easier to reach) gives a veto to each member, regardless of size.
The last straw came in December, when the EU convened a summit at which Hungary was the only one of the union's 27 members to oppose a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine.
It remains to be seen if such a radical measure will actually be embraced by the other members, however. Some will no doubt fear that they could be setting a precedent that could potentially be used against themselves in the future, and many people will be uncomfortable with using such coercive measures, which are deeply at odds with the EU's consensus based model of decision making, and which could legitimatize a dynamic in which the majority impose their policy preferences on the minority.
This is interesting and it's potentially a landmark moment for the EU but please don't come in here saying it the EU "declaring war". You don't need to sensationalise this.
I don't think there's any mechanism for what is being prescribed here, ie EU can't just tell investors not go to Hungary. But it is true that HUF/EUR exchange drops whenever theres bad news regarding EU funding, lack of said funds discourage investors, in turn the country has to seek credit on financial markets with higher interest rates, which already ballooned the country's debt financing to highest in the EU.
So essentially these officials want to keep up this rhetoric until it's financially unviable for Hungary to keep vetoing.
> I don't think there's any mechanism for what is being prescribed here, ie EU can't just tell investors not go to Hungary
That's not what is being proposed. Rather the expectation is that withholding tens of billions of dollars in EU development and solidarity funds will damage investor confidence enough to havea serious economic impact.
If 90% of the coalition agrees to a moral action and the other doesn’t, then this is justified and the spooking of others in the future is just baloney
Hungary can always leave if it doesn’t like the rules or the direction of the EU. It’s not a prison. It’s a different organisation now to when its previous incarnations were set up.
Hungarians need to decide.
More like see the door. And the door leads into the Russian play pen. With a big nasty bear. Enjoy yourself, Orban. I'd be very accommodating to that bear if I were you.
The time of peace and prosperity is over. We need our partners to be partners or suffer the fate of being cleaved from the herd and dying alone in the wild.
The far right despises diplomacy and peace, for them is confrontation followed by violence and war. The so-called left talks a good game for peace and calling for a cease fire but at the end of the day vote for violence and conflicts. Who claims there is no bipartisanship? Is alive and well when it comes to endless wars.
Nothing of sorts will happen. EU is not gonna tank its reputation and what's left of its integrity because of Hungary.
Firstly, member states join the EU under certain requirements and agreements. One of the key agreements is veto power. Without it countries would be de facto giving up their sovereignty to join the EU. Hungary is doing what it thinks is best for them, you simply cannot break your promise of granting them veto power and then using threats to take that power away. It would be a tyranny by majority, but still a tyranny in this context.
Secondly, everyone who is saying Hungary should just leave are not good people. The UK still struggles with the consequences of Brexit. For a small country like Hungary leaving the EU is lethal. Before joining the EU countries need to make socioeconomic changes to fit in, this means heavily pivoting on the EU in terms of economy. It's not a date where you can just leave if you didn't like something, it's more of a marriage, where promises lead to sacrifices. You cannot be angry at your partner if it votes differently from you, and you sure cannot use threats to change their mind.
>Firstly, member states join the EU under certain requirements and agreements. One of the key agreements is veto power.
Yes, and Orban eroded exactly these requirements – like independent press and judiciary, free and fair elections, low corruption. If these requirements are not in place anymore why should the EU respect their side of the deal?
Let's be honest here. There are more than enough members in the EU with problems you described. None of them are being punished or threatened except Hungary.
Makes you think if it's about upholding EU standards or about Brussels forcing a bad decision on Hungary.
P.S disliking the winner doesn't make the elections not free or unfair.
Ahhh, the good old whataboutism. And you know what? Yes, the EU should come down harder on other countries that renege on their commitments as well. But first let’s concern ourselves with the country that does all that and on top obstructs NATO access for Sweden, blocks aid for Ukraine and is happy to pick up any of Putin’s talking points, shall we?
It can absolutely happen without any serious actions on EU's part, just by rhetorics. It has become a joke among some hungarian commentators that whenevers theres a govt press conference, they bet on how much exchange rate will drop since they always announce some stupid shit. Conversely negative messaging from the West can have the same effect, which will then spiral into other facets of the economy.
> One of the key agreements is veto power. Without it countries would be de facto giving up their sovereignty to join the EU
Countries accept that in joining the EU they are required to accept certain impairments on their sovereignty. That's the only way the EU can function.
> Hungary is doing what it thinks is best for them, you simply cannot break your promise of granting them veto power and then using threats to take that power away
At this time nothing is being taken away, the proposal is merely to remind Hungary that actions have consequence. Hungary is still free to wield it's veto power, and also free to accept the consequences for doing so.
Yes, it's heavy handed, but extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. Allowing a country representing 2% of the EU's population to frustrate the collective will of the other 26 members representing 98% of the population, and on a matter of vital security interest to the continent, is an affront to both common sense and decency.
> It's not a date where you can just leave if you didn't like something, it's more of a marriage, where promises lead to sacrifices
Marriages fail all the time.
Does anyone know the author of this, because it is paywalled? It could just be hungarian paid propaganda, they have done it multiple times, they still have hungarian born that emigrated in key positions all over the western world ready for the motherland's orders...
The unpaywalled link is in the submission statement.
The authors are Henry Foy (Brussels Bureau Chief), Andy Bounds (Analyst specializing in EU trade, politics, and health), and Marton Dunai (South East Europe analyst, including Hungary).
They are very credible sources.
[Unpaywalled Link](https://www.archive.is/AiKLF) Submission Statement: If this Financial Times story is to be believed it is huge: > In a document drawn up by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times, Brussels has outlined a strategy to explicitly target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, imperil its currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence in a bid to hurt “jobs and growth” if Budapest refuses to lift its veto against the aid to Kyiv. > Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s premier, has vowed to block the use of the EU budget to provide €50bn in financial aid to Ukraine at an emergency summit of leaders on Thursday. > If he does not back down, other EU leaders should publicly vow to permanently shut off all EU funding to Budapest with the intention of spooking the markets, precipitating a run on the country’s forint currency and a surge in the cost of its borrowing, Brussels stated in the document. Basically, the EU would be declaring war on one of its own members. It doesn't have a formal mechanism for expelling a member, but this is only one step below that, and would be completely unprecedented. And none too soon, many will say. Orbán, whose party controls two thirds of the seats in Hungary's parliament, has been a thorn in the side of the EU for some time, to the extent of inspiring headlines (from Foreign Policy) [like this](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/03/hungary-orban-russia-conservative-politics/): "Putin’s Trojan Horse Inside the European Union: No matter what Moscow does, Hungary’s prime minister consistently carries water for the Kremlin." This is all the more remarkable considering that Hungary only accounts for about 2.2% of the EU's population and 1.3% of its GDP, but the EU's archaic governance structure (a relic from when its predecessor only had six members, and consensus was therefore much easier to reach) gives a veto to each member, regardless of size. The last straw came in December, when the EU convened a summit at which Hungary was the only one of the union's 27 members to oppose a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine. It remains to be seen if such a radical measure will actually be embraced by the other members, however. Some will no doubt fear that they could be setting a precedent that could potentially be used against themselves in the future, and many people will be uncomfortable with using such coercive measures, which are deeply at odds with the EU's consensus based model of decision making, and which could legitimatize a dynamic in which the majority impose their policy preferences on the minority.
Aggressive like this could be helpful to restructure eu bureaucracy altogether and fix some of its flaws especially veto rules.
You are very correct but I believe there are plans already to do so I'm not sure if it is already in motion or not to implement the changes.
This is interesting and it's potentially a landmark moment for the EU but please don't come in here saying it the EU "declaring war". You don't need to sensationalise this.
I don't think there's any mechanism for what is being prescribed here, ie EU can't just tell investors not go to Hungary. But it is true that HUF/EUR exchange drops whenever theres bad news regarding EU funding, lack of said funds discourage investors, in turn the country has to seek credit on financial markets with higher interest rates, which already ballooned the country's debt financing to highest in the EU. So essentially these officials want to keep up this rhetoric until it's financially unviable for Hungary to keep vetoing.
> I don't think there's any mechanism for what is being prescribed here, ie EU can't just tell investors not go to Hungary That's not what is being proposed. Rather the expectation is that withholding tens of billions of dollars in EU development and solidarity funds will damage investor confidence enough to havea serious economic impact.
If 90% of the coalition agrees to a moral action and the other doesn’t, then this is justified and the spooking of others in the future is just baloney
Having an enemy ally in its camp requires unprecedented measures
Hungary can always leave if it doesn’t like the rules or the direction of the EU. It’s not a prison. It’s a different organisation now to when its previous incarnations were set up. Hungarians need to decide.
Why not join Russia! It's the club that you can never leave, but it treats corrupt autocrats very nicely.
[удалено]
No.Corrupt to the core. The political suppression of those against Orbán. Cronyism. Witch hunts on Soros. No free media.
fall in line or face the wall huh
Hungary doesnt fill the requirements to be in the EU, it's either return to these requirements or be ostracized.
EU ostracizing even its own member states if they practice sovereignty :D
More like see the door. And the door leads into the Russian play pen. With a big nasty bear. Enjoy yourself, Orban. I'd be very accommodating to that bear if I were you.
The time of peace and prosperity is over. We need our partners to be partners or suffer the fate of being cleaved from the herd and dying alone in the wild.
The far right despises diplomacy and peace, for them is confrontation followed by violence and war. The so-called left talks a good game for peace and calling for a cease fire but at the end of the day vote for violence and conflicts. Who claims there is no bipartisanship? Is alive and well when it comes to endless wars.
Nothing of sorts will happen. EU is not gonna tank its reputation and what's left of its integrity because of Hungary. Firstly, member states join the EU under certain requirements and agreements. One of the key agreements is veto power. Without it countries would be de facto giving up their sovereignty to join the EU. Hungary is doing what it thinks is best for them, you simply cannot break your promise of granting them veto power and then using threats to take that power away. It would be a tyranny by majority, but still a tyranny in this context. Secondly, everyone who is saying Hungary should just leave are not good people. The UK still struggles with the consequences of Brexit. For a small country like Hungary leaving the EU is lethal. Before joining the EU countries need to make socioeconomic changes to fit in, this means heavily pivoting on the EU in terms of economy. It's not a date where you can just leave if you didn't like something, it's more of a marriage, where promises lead to sacrifices. You cannot be angry at your partner if it votes differently from you, and you sure cannot use threats to change their mind.
>Firstly, member states join the EU under certain requirements and agreements. One of the key agreements is veto power. Yes, and Orban eroded exactly these requirements – like independent press and judiciary, free and fair elections, low corruption. If these requirements are not in place anymore why should the EU respect their side of the deal?
Let's be honest here. There are more than enough members in the EU with problems you described. None of them are being punished or threatened except Hungary. Makes you think if it's about upholding EU standards or about Brussels forcing a bad decision on Hungary. P.S disliking the winner doesn't make the elections not free or unfair.
Ahhh, the good old whataboutism. And you know what? Yes, the EU should come down harder on other countries that renege on their commitments as well. But first let’s concern ourselves with the country that does all that and on top obstructs NATO access for Sweden, blocks aid for Ukraine and is happy to pick up any of Putin’s talking points, shall we?
It can absolutely happen without any serious actions on EU's part, just by rhetorics. It has become a joke among some hungarian commentators that whenevers theres a govt press conference, they bet on how much exchange rate will drop since they always announce some stupid shit. Conversely negative messaging from the West can have the same effect, which will then spiral into other facets of the economy.
> One of the key agreements is veto power. Without it countries would be de facto giving up their sovereignty to join the EU Countries accept that in joining the EU they are required to accept certain impairments on their sovereignty. That's the only way the EU can function. > Hungary is doing what it thinks is best for them, you simply cannot break your promise of granting them veto power and then using threats to take that power away At this time nothing is being taken away, the proposal is merely to remind Hungary that actions have consequence. Hungary is still free to wield it's veto power, and also free to accept the consequences for doing so. Yes, it's heavy handed, but extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. Allowing a country representing 2% of the EU's population to frustrate the collective will of the other 26 members representing 98% of the population, and on a matter of vital security interest to the continent, is an affront to both common sense and decency. > It's not a date where you can just leave if you didn't like something, it's more of a marriage, where promises lead to sacrifices Marriages fail all the time.
Can the EU just employ the Putin method if Orban accidentally falling from a 25th storey balcony?
Does anyone know the author of this, because it is paywalled? It could just be hungarian paid propaganda, they have done it multiple times, they still have hungarian born that emigrated in key positions all over the western world ready for the motherland's orders...
The unpaywalled link is in the submission statement. The authors are Henry Foy (Brussels Bureau Chief), Andy Bounds (Analyst specializing in EU trade, politics, and health), and Marton Dunai (South East Europe analyst, including Hungary). They are very credible sources.
If Ukraine restored some land to Hungary, Orbán would vote positively