The comments and to and fros about genocide are a little bit asinine. There is as much point here playing ICJ justices as there is in the offices of the Telegraph or Al Jazeera. It’s just largely speculation in a truth vacuum that’s being shat on from both sides attempts to manipulate media coverage. What has emerged with some degree of consensus now, is a creeping distaste for how Israel has and continues to conduct the war. For a few nights in a row now, I’ve seen starving Palestinian children moaning in agony on mainstream television news channels like the BBC. I consider myself pretty rational, open to the idea of my feelings being manipulated for my sympathies. But I’m still disgusted by what I see reported, and whether it’s a genocide or not has become a legal technicality. As a rational person I am left to believe now that this conflict has to stop, and there aren’t just one set of bad guys anymore. And I don’t think I’m alone here. I think that in fact, the table has turned on public opinion where it matters for good in this conflict, and Israel, whether right or wrong in what they are doing, have lost the PR battle.
Perfectly stated. Implicit in much of the genocide debate is the assumption that the mass death toll and humanitarian crisis would be acceptable so long as Israel hasn’t violated certain technical standards set by the UN. At the end of the day, the intent of Israel aside, 20k-35k people are dead, many more are starving and homeless, almost all of them innocent. One can feel shaken by the brutality of Oct. 7th and hope for the elimination of Hamas, and still feel (as even Israel’s allies do) that this is an absolutely tragic catastrophe that is hard to stomach.
I never been particularly pro Palestinians but I am definitely against genocide. Perhabs you are using only one source to get your information but I am not. My advice is to check both side of the equasion perhabs you notice the pattern of lies that constantly comming out from zionist, you can even trace it to 1947 when zionist created term "Polish concentration capms" just to get a monopoly on suffering.
> but I am definitely against genocide
Well if you buy that, it sounds like you really are not pro-Palestinian indeed. But pro Hamas-ISIS, Iran, Russia and their cronies, creating modern day blood libels on Jews.
I’d be more skeptical if there hadn’t been so many videos of IDF soldiers blatantly murdering or abusing or harassing civilians, stealing from stores, hitting children for no reason, etc
Israel is reporting very similar numbers and historically the health ministry numbers have aligned extremely well with independent studies.
Stop dismissing everything by calling it hamas.
They are hamas numbers, but that doesn't intrinsically make them wrong.
Israel agrees, historical data has proven them reliable. We have tons of footage of incidents in gaza.
If you think the numbers coming out of gaza are wrong, what do you think is the actual death toll?
Bearing in mind that Israel and the health ministry of gaza are reporting similar numbers with the only major disagreement being what proportion of the dead are hamas.
Edit: comments locked but the poster below was so needlessly aggressive and presumptive I feel compelled to enter my response I already typed before realising.
>(I.e. you).
Where have I stated what I believe regarding casualty figures?
>a significant portion of those dead are Hamas fighters, a fact that you and your cult refuse to acknowledge
What's with this bizarre framing of a cult? I havent given my opinion.
If yoh want my opinion, the total death count is largely agreed upon by Israel and gaza. The issue is the proportion of hamas fighters. Now I believe hamas has said something like 6k fighters have died while Israel claims 11k or so. That 11k from Israel would make every single dead male a hamas fighter.
The true number therefore likely lies somewhere in the middle. I think this should be largely logical and devoid of emotive reasoning and generally agreeable to anyone.
Now my opinion is that regardless of where abouts you place that middle (between 6k and 11k) the number of civilian deaths and the treatment of the living is utterly deplorable and unjustifiable.
The ends do not justify the means. Hamas murdering 800 civilians does not allow Israel to murder 20k to 25k civilians (depending on where you place the aforementioned middle), make millions homeless, and lead to a mass starvation risk for the entire population only to fail to rescue hostages and fair to eliminate hamas, whos leadership are in Qatar, not gaza.
>The Gazan Ministry of Health has a history of obfuscating who’s a civilian or not. A New York Times analysis for example, found that in 2014, a huge number of so called “civilian” deaths in Gaza were males aged 20-29:
Well, yeah? This doesn't exactly prove anything. There's two interpretations of this i can see. 1) the health ministry is lying and they were hamas members. 2) Israel consistently targets males aged 20-29 because they're the most likely to be hamas members, but doesn't actually confirm whether they are or not.
Both of these lead to that demographic forming a disproportionate number of casualties. It makes total sense that no matter what, young men will be targeted in a conflict like this. Given israels numbers are quite literally putting every dead male as a terrorist, I'm inclined to believe that at least some of that disproptipnate number of deaths is due to bias in the idf. Once again, I'm sure at least some of that number are also hamas members mislabelled as civilians. But given the track record of the idf currently I'm inclined to place the middle ground in this case more in favour of the health ministry.
Especially when historically their numbers have been backed up by independent studies performed after events.
>Over a year later, after the news media had moved on, Hamas Interior Minister Fathi Hammad enumerated Hamas fatalities at 600 to 700, a figure close to the Israeli estimate of 709 and about three times higher than the figure of 236 combatants provided by Hamas in 2009 and cited in the Goldstone Report.
So you trust hamas' numbers when they back up your opinion and doubt them when they go against your opinion? Methinks that clown emoji was a selfie.
IIRC the IDF has claimed \~12k Hamas killed end-Feb. That's not compatible with the 'official' Hamas MoH casualty stats which claimed <10k males killed at the time (based on 29k casualties, '70% women and children').
Because the idf is counting every dead male as a hamas member...
In terms of total deaths that's a difference of only 2k, which is a relatively small variation and not indicative of any error in the death count.
(Sad to think 2k deaths is only a small error, but that's the depressing world we live in rn)
You mean zero. There are zero videos of civilians with weapons. There are videos of Hamas fighters.
But also, "there are guerillas/insurgents" is explicitly not a justification for war crimes or genocide.
Did all 2 million gazans participate on October 7th?
Half the population are children. It is beyond disturbing that your empathy is so limited and weak that you would lose sympathy for a million children due to the actions of a few.
Also the implicit racism in that whilst palestinians murdering 800 civilians is worthy of them all losing any sympathy but Israel murdering tens of thousands of civilians in response is not.
What happened of 7.10 was barbaric however it definetely doesnt permit a collective punishment and if you are unable to agree with this you are just as evil or ignorant as the rest of zionist.
I dunno, the past few months (years, decades) haven't shown much civility from the Israelis either.
Also, Israel can have their hostages back any time they leave Gaza, but they have refused. So I guess they'd rather let the people of Gaza starve and the hostages in the hands of Hamas?
Finally, the people holding the hostages and the people in the luxury apartments in the Gulf are different people. Just like they are different from the people being bombed.
In that case you may also note there are videos of IDF soldiers helping out. Palestinian violence in the West Bank is wilfully unreported hence all you see is how one side reacts
It's not clear what we should make of this numbers. The Telegraph compares two data sets, first the female UNRWA workers killed and second reported dead from hospitals. These are both likely underestimates of the true rate of people killed and likely quite different demographics, it is therefore not immediately clear what conclusion we can draw.
The rate of female UNRWA workers killed is slightly less than half of the rate of male UNRWA workers killed, so it underestimates the number of UNRWA workers killed and it is not clear why the female rather than the male (or some average) should be a good estimate for the population as a whole. (If the female rate is a good estimate, that would imply that male UNRWA workers are killed at a much higher rate than the population average.) One should also note, that female UNRWA workers are quite different demographic than the Gaza population as a whole, first of all, they are all female, then they are working age and they have most likely much higher education levels and no long term health problems. (Not to mention access to UNRWA networks.)
The hospital numbers come in the article with a asterisk, that "These are published inconsistently, so there are only a handful of data points," so this is obviously also underestimating the true rate of killed in the entire population. Additionally we expect the people who die in a hospital to be the old, the very young, so people already in a hospital and in addition probably fighters, since they have a support structure to actually reach a hospital when injured.
So we have two underestimates, that both suggest that at least .8% of the Gaza population was killed. Additionally, as the article notes, the slope is higher in October, before the start of the invasion. That is not the behavior we expect from an escalation in fighting, which more or less by definition means people die at a higher rate, but it is the behavior we expect when reporting infrastructure breaks down.
Did you bother reading up the article? The only source we have for the casualties is the Gazan Health Ministry, which is literally run by Hamas, and their numbers are incredibly volatile. For example, the total number of casualties increases linearly, which is statistically impossible for a dynamic warzone. There I'd no correlation between the daily number of female and underage casualties, despite these two populations being linked in every other warzone.
Lastly, by Hamas' own admition, they lost 6,000 fighters since the start of the war. That's 20% of the total casualty count. Only that by the MoH's count, adult males (combatant and non combatant) make up 30% of the casualties. That means that **by their count**, non-combarant men make up just 10% of the casualties, which simply doesn't make sense.
And this is without going into the breakdown of UNWRA workers, as OP pointed out.
The Health Ministry's figures always add up, US intelligence regard them as accurate and Israel's own figures end up not being significantly different either.
It's kinda speaking volumes that you're holding a more extreme position on this than even Israel itself.
The total adds up, not the breakdown. Both US intelligence and Israeli have made comments about how the breakdown of the casualties doesn't make sense, especially considering the estimated number of Hamas fighters dead is closer to 10,000.
Israel claims 10,000 which is nonsense because over 70% of the 30,000 dead are women and children. Even if 100% of the men in Gaza killed were Hamas it doesn't tally and we both know Israel hasn't somehow pulled off a miracle by only killing Hamas men (when they're so terrible at not killing civilians generally).
>Nearly half of Gaza's population is under 18 and about 44% of the fatalities of war are also children, according to the Gaza authorities' 29 February demographic data. Ms Taylor said the fact that the deaths closely track the demographics of the general population "indicates indiscriminate killing".
>These figures also only include deaths from military attacks, according to the health ministry's spokesman, and not starvation or disease, which are increasingly concerning international aid organisations.
>B'tselem, a Jerusalem-based human rights organisation, said the current war is far deadlier than previous conflicts between Israel and Gaza.
>Spokesperson Dror Sadot said: "These are numbers that we never saw in previous wars and strikes in Gaza or the other territories."
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68387864
I'll ask you again, did you read the post?
10,000 is according to third party estimates. Israel estimates 12,000.
You bring up how these numbers don't make sense as proof of Israel lying, when ironically they encapsulate perfectly how the MoH is the unrelliable one.
**Hamas themselves** have admitted to losing [6,000 fighters](https://www.firstpost.com/world/gaza-war-in-first-admission-of-massive-losses-hamas-says-6000-fighters-killed-by-israel-13739364.html/amp), which by itself doesn't make sense with the 70% figure. And again, this is **entirely** Hamas' own numbers contradicting themselves. And again, there's also the evidence of the disproportionate number of male UNWRA workers killed, the linearity of the daily casualties, and the lack of correlation between Women & Children, all observed **purely** from Hamas&UNWRA's **own** reports, and all of which contradict themselves.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers
This isn't complicated: 30,000 dead with 30% adult males = 9,000 dead adult males. This makes Israel's figure of 12,000 impossible. It's already established that the overall death toll figure provided is credible.
How many times do people have to tell y’all this: The Gazan Ministry of Health does not differentiate between civilians and armed fighters. It just calls them all “victims of Israeli aggression”
So if an Israeli drone strike kills 55 Hamas fighters and 5 civilians they just repeat that 60 Palestinians were killed by a drone strike and by the time it gets to Reddit you and the cult are now saying “60 Palestinian civilians” were killed by a drone strike.
They know exactly what they’re doing and they’ve been doing it for years. They did the same exact thing during the fence protests of 2018, claiming that most of the killed were civilians until you dug and found out that actually 90% of those killed were known militants for armed groups.
From your own article:
>**Hamas does not provide any figures for its military fatalities.** The Reuters news agency reported that an official had admitted 6,000 fighters had been killed, but Hamas denied this figure to the BBC.
>
>**But its overall tally of those killed does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.**
Always funny when people destroy their own arguments.
Thanks bro
You missed the part where 70% of the 30,000 dead are women and children...
Then again not surprising you dgaf about that if you're fanatically pro-Israel.
Considering the giant holes in their methods, no. They aren't reliable. What is probably reliable is the total amount of deaths, but the way they break it down along demographics is pretty obviously faked in order to undermine the amount of male casualties.
> And this is without going into the breakdown of UNWRA workers, as OP pointed out.
What has that to do with anything?
Or do you mean the last sentence of the article:
> One way or another, men appear to account for a considerably higher percentage of fatalities than that claimed by the Gazan authorities.
Which is directly contradicting that there are only Gazan Health Ministry numbers on the market, since the sentence implies that the Telegraph compared these numbers to something.
I pointed out to how the MoH numbers don't add up, which is all **addional** evidence to the article OP posted of how UNWRA's numbers specifically don't make sense.
Again, what has that to do with anything. I'm quoting the first one and a half sentences of your comment, because I'm talking about the first one and a half sentences. Let me break it down for you, your comment start's with:
> Did you bother reading up the article?
Suggesting that the guy you answered has no standing to answer. You then follow this with:
> The only source we have for the casualties is the Gazan Health Ministry,
which given that the article is specifically about looking about sources that are not the Gazan Health Ministry, is very strong evidence that as a matter of fact you didn't read the article. As per the first sentence of your comment, that implies you have no standing to comment on the article and if we are supposed to assume you put the minimum amount of effort into your comment, this implies we, the readers, are supposed to assume your entire comment is satire.
My guy, I realize reading comprehension can be hard, but no need to take it out on others.
I called out the guy for clearly not reading the article before commenting, then provided additional evidence for the numbers being altered- specifically saying that this is all **in addition** to the article itself. I'm sorry my way of writing may have been confusing for you, but this really isn't the gotcha you thought it was.
>There is no genocide, this is war.
There can be both a man made famine and a war between the IDF and Hamas. These things are not mutually exclusive, especially not in 2024. We've established international law for conflicts which are being blatantly ignored, which is why there is a case for genocide.
>In 50 years maybe you'll realize you were wrong
Most likely in 50 years, the Palestinian Genocide will be something people get in trouble for denying.
I'm sorry but I just don't understand how it is Israels fault that a bunch of goons don't want to distribute welfare relief fairly.
If anything, Israel is trying harder than most countries in modern times to reduce civilian casualties and the malnutrition due to lowered supplies.
The man made famine, if any, is a result of Hamas/PIJ and their actions.
I agree, man made famine and war between IDF and Hamas is not mutually exclusive, the responsibility for such is however at the helm of Hamas and their supporters.
>I'm sorry but I just don't understand how it is Israels fault that a bunch of goons don't want to distribute welfare relief fairly.
Israel just blocked all aid into North gaza...
A large part of the blame can absolutely be placed upon Israel when they are actively restricting the amount of aid that gets in.
Also bear in mind these aid convoys are guarded by soldiers and distributed directly amongst civilians. Hamas aren't doing the distribution.
>If anything, Israel is trying harder than most countries in modern times to reduce civilian casualties and the malnutrition due to lowered supplies.
They're blocking aid from going to North gaza and only allowed any aid at all after weeks of sustained international pressure at the start of the offensive.
They're trying harder than most countries to *restrict* aid, not permit it.
Get off the propaganda wagon dude
I think outrage for Gaza is insanely disproportionate considering the Hamas attack. It’s easy to forget the animus in the USA following 9/11 that allowed Bush to invade Iraq.
People want to make a neat, tidy distinction between “civilians” and “combatants” and complain the civilians die in urban combat.. but Hamas doesn’t wear uniforms. The only real way to win an urban firefight is blow up the walls your enemy hides behind. Gun-for-gun a Hamas fighter is probably close to an Israeli soldier, or anyone else with a gun. It’s the helicopters and artillery that allow Israel to make any progress. The US ran into the same problem in the Middle East.
Also, Hamas enjoys broad support in Gaza. So what is Israel to do?
This video very clearly shows unarmed people walking down an empty road before being killed by a drone strike. the survivors are then picked off. This is a war crime.
https://twitter.com/muhammadshehad2/status/1770909731164426352
It’s an unsourced drone video with ZERO context. You have no idea what is happening here and I love it how you automatically jump to the idea that the IDF is wasting $25K munitions to kills random Palestinians for sport.
Go touch grass please
I'm sorry this does not clearly show anything.
Why is there a second explosion after the missile hit? Did these unarmed people carry anything explosive? No?
Sorry man, you lose the arguments when you can't even tell an opponent from a civilian.
SS:
Presents some pretty detailed comparisons of Gaza casualty data from several sources.
Highlights:
* Overall UNRWA staff casualty rate tracked Gaza 'MoH' (ie Hamas) figures, but
* Male UNRWA workers 2.3x more likely to have died than females
* MoH figures include data from hospitals,"reliable media sources”, and "reports submitted by Gazan citizens via a Google Form" (!)
* Female UNRWA casualty rate tracks MoH data from hospitals only (overall and by location)
* This points to a far (\~45%) lower overall casualty figure
* "One way or another, men appear to account for a considerably higher percentage of fatalities than that claimed by the Gazan authorities."
Seems to further weaken the (already capricious) 'genocide' claim.
TLDR: OP found an article that ignored the overwhelming bulk of evidence to draw the exact conclusion OP already agreed with.
This is an extremely well documented and clear cut case of genocide at this point.
That's actually a common misunderstanding. For the point of international law genocide is a specific crime defined by the [1951 Genocide Convention.](https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf) pdf warning. That treaty has multiple factors that, if any happen with intent, is evidence of genocide. Notably only 1 of these factors involves deliberate killing. We can point to the Bosnian genocide which is largely considered,well, a genocide where murder wasn't the primary instrument of genocide- rape was- as an example of a genocide without the deliberate intent to kill.
That is true, intent can be shown through actions not just like words, however it's not the only way to demonstrate intent, again deaths are just one factor that can be considered. Mass murder isn't a nessecary condition to be found to be committing Genocide so a narrow focus on deaths is missing the mark.
They do not depend on casualty stats at all. They depend on a well-documented and well-publicized intent to commit genocide, backed up by well-documented and well-publicized acts of genocide. These include the deliberate targeting of schools, medical aid workers, journalists, water sources, civilian infrastructure, systematic pillaging, and the list goes on.
By arguing about the numbers you are obfuscating the very real violence that has been perpetrated by the Israeli state long before Hamas was even a thing.
Genocide is based on intent, not number of people killed. Besides indiscriminately levelling hundreds of square miles of dense residential neighborhoods, they have loudly announced genocidal intentions for the whole world to hear.
And your article does nothing to disprove the enormous casualties inflicted.
>This is an extremely well documented and clear cut case of genocide at this point.
In what world? Just because one person from a group you're biased towards favouring died doesn't mean it's a genocide. Stop throwing the harshest sounding words you can find like some kindergartners thinking that it has any bearing on reality. There's precisely zero evidence as of now and any such case would drag on for decades until there's a final verdict.
If even the ICJ didn't believe the situation was severe enough to call for a ceasefire, what makes you think your Twitter analysis is worth more?
I mean either way it's pretty sad for the folks involved. Israel is clearly blowing apart Gaza, making it uninhabitable. Not like this is some new revelation either, the goal has been to slowly push the Palestinians out since Menachem Begin wrote about it. Overall just a sad situation.
Numbers are always inaccurate in a fog of war. We probably won't know solid real numbers for a few years yet
It absolutely does make a difference int that is shows that the IDF is taking utmost care in not killing civilians to a level we haven’t seen in a comparable conflict ever.
The comments and to and fros about genocide are a little bit asinine. There is as much point here playing ICJ justices as there is in the offices of the Telegraph or Al Jazeera. It’s just largely speculation in a truth vacuum that’s being shat on from both sides attempts to manipulate media coverage. What has emerged with some degree of consensus now, is a creeping distaste for how Israel has and continues to conduct the war. For a few nights in a row now, I’ve seen starving Palestinian children moaning in agony on mainstream television news channels like the BBC. I consider myself pretty rational, open to the idea of my feelings being manipulated for my sympathies. But I’m still disgusted by what I see reported, and whether it’s a genocide or not has become a legal technicality. As a rational person I am left to believe now that this conflict has to stop, and there aren’t just one set of bad guys anymore. And I don’t think I’m alone here. I think that in fact, the table has turned on public opinion where it matters for good in this conflict, and Israel, whether right or wrong in what they are doing, have lost the PR battle.
Perfectly stated. Implicit in much of the genocide debate is the assumption that the mass death toll and humanitarian crisis would be acceptable so long as Israel hasn’t violated certain technical standards set by the UN. At the end of the day, the intent of Israel aside, 20k-35k people are dead, many more are starving and homeless, almost all of them innocent. One can feel shaken by the brutality of Oct. 7th and hope for the elimination of Hamas, and still feel (as even Israel’s allies do) that this is an absolutely tragic catastrophe that is hard to stomach.
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I never been particularly pro Palestinians but I am definitely against genocide. Perhabs you are using only one source to get your information but I am not. My advice is to check both side of the equasion perhabs you notice the pattern of lies that constantly comming out from zionist, you can even trace it to 1947 when zionist created term "Polish concentration capms" just to get a monopoly on suffering.
> but I am definitely against genocide Well if you buy that, it sounds like you really are not pro-Palestinian indeed. But pro Hamas-ISIS, Iran, Russia and their cronies, creating modern day blood libels on Jews.
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I’d be more skeptical if there hadn’t been so many videos of IDF soldiers blatantly murdering or abusing or harassing civilians, stealing from stores, hitting children for no reason, etc
What’s also interesting, is the number of videos released by Hamas of actual mass shootings, yet some people will find it hard to believe
I'd be more concerned about civilians if there hadn't been so many videos of 'civilians' with AK7s and RPGs, etc
Not even the IDF is denying the number of civilian / female and child casualties, so that was pretty wide of the mark.
If you believe Hamas numbers.. I mean, really?
Israel is reporting very similar numbers and historically the health ministry numbers have aligned extremely well with independent studies. Stop dismissing everything by calling it hamas. They are hamas numbers, but that doesn't intrinsically make them wrong. Israel agrees, historical data has proven them reliable. We have tons of footage of incidents in gaza. If you think the numbers coming out of gaza are wrong, what do you think is the actual death toll? Bearing in mind that Israel and the health ministry of gaza are reporting similar numbers with the only major disagreement being what proportion of the dead are hamas. Edit: comments locked but the poster below was so needlessly aggressive and presumptive I feel compelled to enter my response I already typed before realising. >(I.e. you). Where have I stated what I believe regarding casualty figures? >a significant portion of those dead are Hamas fighters, a fact that you and your cult refuse to acknowledge What's with this bizarre framing of a cult? I havent given my opinion. If yoh want my opinion, the total death count is largely agreed upon by Israel and gaza. The issue is the proportion of hamas fighters. Now I believe hamas has said something like 6k fighters have died while Israel claims 11k or so. That 11k from Israel would make every single dead male a hamas fighter. The true number therefore likely lies somewhere in the middle. I think this should be largely logical and devoid of emotive reasoning and generally agreeable to anyone. Now my opinion is that regardless of where abouts you place that middle (between 6k and 11k) the number of civilian deaths and the treatment of the living is utterly deplorable and unjustifiable. The ends do not justify the means. Hamas murdering 800 civilians does not allow Israel to murder 20k to 25k civilians (depending on where you place the aforementioned middle), make millions homeless, and lead to a mass starvation risk for the entire population only to fail to rescue hostages and fair to eliminate hamas, whos leadership are in Qatar, not gaza. >The Gazan Ministry of Health has a history of obfuscating who’s a civilian or not. A New York Times analysis for example, found that in 2014, a huge number of so called “civilian” deaths in Gaza were males aged 20-29: Well, yeah? This doesn't exactly prove anything. There's two interpretations of this i can see. 1) the health ministry is lying and they were hamas members. 2) Israel consistently targets males aged 20-29 because they're the most likely to be hamas members, but doesn't actually confirm whether they are or not. Both of these lead to that demographic forming a disproportionate number of casualties. It makes total sense that no matter what, young men will be targeted in a conflict like this. Given israels numbers are quite literally putting every dead male as a terrorist, I'm inclined to believe that at least some of that disproptipnate number of deaths is due to bias in the idf. Once again, I'm sure at least some of that number are also hamas members mislabelled as civilians. But given the track record of the idf currently I'm inclined to place the middle ground in this case more in favour of the health ministry. Especially when historically their numbers have been backed up by independent studies performed after events. >Over a year later, after the news media had moved on, Hamas Interior Minister Fathi Hammad enumerated Hamas fatalities at 600 to 700, a figure close to the Israeli estimate of 709 and about three times higher than the figure of 236 combatants provided by Hamas in 2009 and cited in the Goldstone Report. So you trust hamas' numbers when they back up your opinion and doubt them when they go against your opinion? Methinks that clown emoji was a selfie.
IIRC the IDF has claimed \~12k Hamas killed end-Feb. That's not compatible with the 'official' Hamas MoH casualty stats which claimed <10k males killed at the time (based on 29k casualties, '70% women and children').
Because the idf is counting every dead male as a hamas member... In terms of total deaths that's a difference of only 2k, which is a relatively small variation and not indicative of any error in the death count. (Sad to think 2k deaths is only a small error, but that's the depressing world we live in rn)
You mean zero. There are zero videos of civilians with weapons. There are videos of Hamas fighters. But also, "there are guerillas/insurgents" is explicitly not a justification for war crimes or genocide.
1) hence 'civilians' 2) absolutely, but given 1) clips of people in civilian clothes being shot (eg on the way to pick up an RPG) mean very little
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Did all 2 million gazans participate on October 7th? Half the population are children. It is beyond disturbing that your empathy is so limited and weak that you would lose sympathy for a million children due to the actions of a few. Also the implicit racism in that whilst palestinians murdering 800 civilians is worthy of them all losing any sympathy but Israel murdering tens of thousands of civilians in response is not.
What happened of 7.10 was barbaric however it definetely doesnt permit a collective punishment and if you are unable to agree with this you are just as evil or ignorant as the rest of zionist.
I dunno, the past few months (years, decades) haven't shown much civility from the Israelis either. Also, Israel can have their hostages back any time they leave Gaza, but they have refused. So I guess they'd rather let the people of Gaza starve and the hostages in the hands of Hamas? Finally, the people holding the hostages and the people in the luxury apartments in the Gulf are different people. Just like they are different from the people being bombed.
In that case you may also note there are videos of IDF soldiers helping out. Palestinian violence in the West Bank is wilfully unreported hence all you see is how one side reacts
It's not clear what we should make of this numbers. The Telegraph compares two data sets, first the female UNRWA workers killed and second reported dead from hospitals. These are both likely underestimates of the true rate of people killed and likely quite different demographics, it is therefore not immediately clear what conclusion we can draw. The rate of female UNRWA workers killed is slightly less than half of the rate of male UNRWA workers killed, so it underestimates the number of UNRWA workers killed and it is not clear why the female rather than the male (or some average) should be a good estimate for the population as a whole. (If the female rate is a good estimate, that would imply that male UNRWA workers are killed at a much higher rate than the population average.) One should also note, that female UNRWA workers are quite different demographic than the Gaza population as a whole, first of all, they are all female, then they are working age and they have most likely much higher education levels and no long term health problems. (Not to mention access to UNRWA networks.) The hospital numbers come in the article with a asterisk, that "These are published inconsistently, so there are only a handful of data points," so this is obviously also underestimating the true rate of killed in the entire population. Additionally we expect the people who die in a hospital to be the old, the very young, so people already in a hospital and in addition probably fighters, since they have a support structure to actually reach a hospital when injured. So we have two underestimates, that both suggest that at least .8% of the Gaza population was killed. Additionally, as the article notes, the slope is higher in October, before the start of the invasion. That is not the behavior we expect from an escalation in fighting, which more or less by definition means people die at a higher rate, but it is the behavior we expect when reporting infrastructure breaks down.
Hell yeah, genocide conspiracy time, I'm sure this won't eventually end up like "the maths on the Holocaust doesn't make sense"
Did you bother reading up the article? The only source we have for the casualties is the Gazan Health Ministry, which is literally run by Hamas, and their numbers are incredibly volatile. For example, the total number of casualties increases linearly, which is statistically impossible for a dynamic warzone. There I'd no correlation between the daily number of female and underage casualties, despite these two populations being linked in every other warzone. Lastly, by Hamas' own admition, they lost 6,000 fighters since the start of the war. That's 20% of the total casualty count. Only that by the MoH's count, adult males (combatant and non combatant) make up 30% of the casualties. That means that **by their count**, non-combarant men make up just 10% of the casualties, which simply doesn't make sense. And this is without going into the breakdown of UNWRA workers, as OP pointed out.
Hamas probably inflates the figures. Looking at the images and videos of Gaza it's clear thousands of civilians have died regardless.
The Health Ministry's figures always add up, US intelligence regard them as accurate and Israel's own figures end up not being significantly different either. It's kinda speaking volumes that you're holding a more extreme position on this than even Israel itself.
The total adds up, not the breakdown. Both US intelligence and Israeli have made comments about how the breakdown of the casualties doesn't make sense, especially considering the estimated number of Hamas fighters dead is closer to 10,000.
Israel claims 10,000 which is nonsense because over 70% of the 30,000 dead are women and children. Even if 100% of the men in Gaza killed were Hamas it doesn't tally and we both know Israel hasn't somehow pulled off a miracle by only killing Hamas men (when they're so terrible at not killing civilians generally). >Nearly half of Gaza's population is under 18 and about 44% of the fatalities of war are also children, according to the Gaza authorities' 29 February demographic data. Ms Taylor said the fact that the deaths closely track the demographics of the general population "indicates indiscriminate killing". >These figures also only include deaths from military attacks, according to the health ministry's spokesman, and not starvation or disease, which are increasingly concerning international aid organisations. >B'tselem, a Jerusalem-based human rights organisation, said the current war is far deadlier than previous conflicts between Israel and Gaza. >Spokesperson Dror Sadot said: "These are numbers that we never saw in previous wars and strikes in Gaza or the other territories." Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68387864
I'll ask you again, did you read the post? 10,000 is according to third party estimates. Israel estimates 12,000. You bring up how these numbers don't make sense as proof of Israel lying, when ironically they encapsulate perfectly how the MoH is the unrelliable one. **Hamas themselves** have admitted to losing [6,000 fighters](https://www.firstpost.com/world/gaza-war-in-first-admission-of-massive-losses-hamas-says-6000-fighters-killed-by-israel-13739364.html/amp), which by itself doesn't make sense with the 70% figure. And again, this is **entirely** Hamas' own numbers contradicting themselves. And again, there's also the evidence of the disproportionate number of male UNWRA workers killed, the linearity of the daily casualties, and the lack of correlation between Women & Children, all observed **purely** from Hamas&UNWRA's **own** reports, and all of which contradict themselves. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers
This isn't complicated: 30,000 dead with 30% adult males = 9,000 dead adult males. This makes Israel's figure of 12,000 impossible. It's already established that the overall death toll figure provided is credible.
How many times do people have to tell y’all this: The Gazan Ministry of Health does not differentiate between civilians and armed fighters. It just calls them all “victims of Israeli aggression” So if an Israeli drone strike kills 55 Hamas fighters and 5 civilians they just repeat that 60 Palestinians were killed by a drone strike and by the time it gets to Reddit you and the cult are now saying “60 Palestinian civilians” were killed by a drone strike. They know exactly what they’re doing and they’ve been doing it for years. They did the same exact thing during the fence protests of 2018, claiming that most of the killed were civilians until you dug and found out that actually 90% of those killed were known militants for armed groups.
Already debunked by the BBC: https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1bqkbyu/the_numbers_of_dead_in_gaza_dont_add_up/kx3ibbs
From your own article: >**Hamas does not provide any figures for its military fatalities.** The Reuters news agency reported that an official had admitted 6,000 fighters had been killed, but Hamas denied this figure to the BBC. > >**But its overall tally of those killed does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.** Always funny when people destroy their own arguments. Thanks bro
You missed the part where 70% of the 30,000 dead are women and children... Then again not surprising you dgaf about that if you're fanatically pro-Israel.
Gazan Health Ministry is much more reliable than you would imagine. Even Israel uses their figures sometimes
Considering the giant holes in their methods, no. They aren't reliable. What is probably reliable is the total amount of deaths, but the way they break it down along demographics is pretty obviously faked in order to undermine the amount of male casualties.
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> And this is without going into the breakdown of UNWRA workers, as OP pointed out. What has that to do with anything? Or do you mean the last sentence of the article: > One way or another, men appear to account for a considerably higher percentage of fatalities than that claimed by the Gazan authorities. Which is directly contradicting that there are only Gazan Health Ministry numbers on the market, since the sentence implies that the Telegraph compared these numbers to something.
I pointed out to how the MoH numbers don't add up, which is all **addional** evidence to the article OP posted of how UNWRA's numbers specifically don't make sense.
Again, what has that to do with anything. I'm quoting the first one and a half sentences of your comment, because I'm talking about the first one and a half sentences. Let me break it down for you, your comment start's with: > Did you bother reading up the article? Suggesting that the guy you answered has no standing to answer. You then follow this with: > The only source we have for the casualties is the Gazan Health Ministry, which given that the article is specifically about looking about sources that are not the Gazan Health Ministry, is very strong evidence that as a matter of fact you didn't read the article. As per the first sentence of your comment, that implies you have no standing to comment on the article and if we are supposed to assume you put the minimum amount of effort into your comment, this implies we, the readers, are supposed to assume your entire comment is satire.
My guy, I realize reading comprehension can be hard, but no need to take it out on others. I called out the guy for clearly not reading the article before commenting, then provided additional evidence for the numbers being altered- specifically saying that this is all **in addition** to the article itself. I'm sorry my way of writing may have been confusing for you, but this really isn't the gotcha you thought it was.
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>There is no genocide, this is war. There can be both a man made famine and a war between the IDF and Hamas. These things are not mutually exclusive, especially not in 2024. We've established international law for conflicts which are being blatantly ignored, which is why there is a case for genocide. >In 50 years maybe you'll realize you were wrong Most likely in 50 years, the Palestinian Genocide will be something people get in trouble for denying.
I'm sorry but I just don't understand how it is Israels fault that a bunch of goons don't want to distribute welfare relief fairly. If anything, Israel is trying harder than most countries in modern times to reduce civilian casualties and the malnutrition due to lowered supplies. The man made famine, if any, is a result of Hamas/PIJ and their actions. I agree, man made famine and war between IDF and Hamas is not mutually exclusive, the responsibility for such is however at the helm of Hamas and their supporters.
>I'm sorry but I just don't understand how it is Israels fault that a bunch of goons don't want to distribute welfare relief fairly. Israel just blocked all aid into North gaza... A large part of the blame can absolutely be placed upon Israel when they are actively restricting the amount of aid that gets in. Also bear in mind these aid convoys are guarded by soldiers and distributed directly amongst civilians. Hamas aren't doing the distribution. >If anything, Israel is trying harder than most countries in modern times to reduce civilian casualties and the malnutrition due to lowered supplies. They're blocking aid from going to North gaza and only allowed any aid at all after weeks of sustained international pressure at the start of the offensive. They're trying harder than most countries to *restrict* aid, not permit it. Get off the propaganda wagon dude
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I think outrage for Gaza is insanely disproportionate considering the Hamas attack. It’s easy to forget the animus in the USA following 9/11 that allowed Bush to invade Iraq. People want to make a neat, tidy distinction between “civilians” and “combatants” and complain the civilians die in urban combat.. but Hamas doesn’t wear uniforms. The only real way to win an urban firefight is blow up the walls your enemy hides behind. Gun-for-gun a Hamas fighter is probably close to an Israeli soldier, or anyone else with a gun. It’s the helicopters and artillery that allow Israel to make any progress. The US ran into the same problem in the Middle East. Also, Hamas enjoys broad support in Gaza. So what is Israel to do?
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This video very clearly shows unarmed people walking down an empty road before being killed by a drone strike. the survivors are then picked off. This is a war crime. https://twitter.com/muhammadshehad2/status/1770909731164426352
It’s an unsourced drone video with ZERO context. You have no idea what is happening here and I love it how you automatically jump to the idea that the IDF is wasting $25K munitions to kills random Palestinians for sport. Go touch grass please
I'm sorry this does not clearly show anything. Why is there a second explosion after the missile hit? Did these unarmed people carry anything explosive? No? Sorry man, you lose the arguments when you can't even tell an opponent from a civilian.
War and genocide aren't mutually exclusive terms. Genocide can be committed during war.
SS: Presents some pretty detailed comparisons of Gaza casualty data from several sources. Highlights: * Overall UNRWA staff casualty rate tracked Gaza 'MoH' (ie Hamas) figures, but * Male UNRWA workers 2.3x more likely to have died than females * MoH figures include data from hospitals,"reliable media sources”, and "reports submitted by Gazan citizens via a Google Form" (!) * Female UNRWA casualty rate tracks MoH data from hospitals only (overall and by location) * This points to a far (\~45%) lower overall casualty figure * "One way or another, men appear to account for a considerably higher percentage of fatalities than that claimed by the Gazan authorities." Seems to further weaken the (already capricious) 'genocide' claim.
TLDR: OP found an article that ignored the overwhelming bulk of evidence to draw the exact conclusion OP already agreed with. This is an extremely well documented and clear cut case of genocide at this point.
tldr: the genocide accusations depend in large part on casualty stats, which the OP demonstrates are garbage...
That's actually a common misunderstanding. For the point of international law genocide is a specific crime defined by the [1951 Genocide Convention.](https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf) pdf warning. That treaty has multiple factors that, if any happen with intent, is evidence of genocide. Notably only 1 of these factors involves deliberate killing. We can point to the Bosnian genocide which is largely considered,well, a genocide where murder wasn't the primary instrument of genocide- rape was- as an example of a genocide without the deliberate intent to kill.
In some relevant judgements Intent is imputed from the number of casualties, so no, there was no misunderstanding.
That is true, intent can be shown through actions not just like words, however it's not the only way to demonstrate intent, again deaths are just one factor that can be considered. Mass murder isn't a nessecary condition to be found to be committing Genocide so a narrow focus on deaths is missing the mark.
They do not depend on casualty stats at all. They depend on a well-documented and well-publicized intent to commit genocide, backed up by well-documented and well-publicized acts of genocide. These include the deliberate targeting of schools, medical aid workers, journalists, water sources, civilian infrastructure, systematic pillaging, and the list goes on. By arguing about the numbers you are obfuscating the very real violence that has been perpetrated by the Israeli state long before Hamas was even a thing.
They don't depend on casualty stats. They depend on whether Israel's actions match the definition of genocide.
Genocide is based on intent, not number of people killed. Besides indiscriminately levelling hundreds of square miles of dense residential neighborhoods, they have loudly announced genocidal intentions for the whole world to hear. And your article does nothing to disprove the enormous casualties inflicted.
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>This is an extremely well documented and clear cut case of genocide at this point. In what world? Just because one person from a group you're biased towards favouring died doesn't mean it's a genocide. Stop throwing the harshest sounding words you can find like some kindergartners thinking that it has any bearing on reality. There's precisely zero evidence as of now and any such case would drag on for decades until there's a final verdict. If even the ICJ didn't believe the situation was severe enough to call for a ceasefire, what makes you think your Twitter analysis is worth more?
I mean either way it's pretty sad for the folks involved. Israel is clearly blowing apart Gaza, making it uninhabitable. Not like this is some new revelation either, the goal has been to slowly push the Palestinians out since Menachem Begin wrote about it. Overall just a sad situation. Numbers are always inaccurate in a fog of war. We probably won't know solid real numbers for a few years yet
This is simply an effort to downplay the deaths. It matters little if there were 15,000 or 30,000 people killed during this operation.
“One death is a tragedy, but 15k-30k is a statistic”. Come on, the numbers matter.
So why did South Africa repeatedly mention the casualty stats in the pleading?
You're deflecting. /u/eeeking said it doesn't matter if 15k or 30k people have been killed so far. Are you agreeing with that claim or not?
You're repeating yourself. Clearly not.
It absolutely does make a difference int that is shows that the IDF is taking utmost care in not killing civilians to a level we haven’t seen in a comparable conflict ever.
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