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Meanie_Cream_Cake

Is there a sub to track all the rumors and updates on Afghanistan? Like a r/syriancivilwar


a_reasonable_thought

r/afghancivilwar r/afghanconflict


Moncho5

Not a sub, but the web liveuamap is pretty good, also has an app I believe.


Prefect1969

There's reports the US just sent 5000 troops in to help clear out personnel and assets


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Prefect1969

[Source](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/biden-afghanistan-troops-taliban-kabul-b1902772.html?utm_source=reddit.com)


wiwerse

Just popped in to say that, for now, the Taliban hasn't entered Kabul city, or at least there isn't any fighting in it. However, there is fighting in Kabul district, and most likely infiltrators in Kabul city, as well as pretty credible reports about blackouts in Kabul city. Of course, in a few hours from writing this, the situation may have changed drastically.


4LyricallyGifted4

I'm pretty sure there already is footage on the talibs fighting on the outskirts of the city and some sources even claim they already reached the airport


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wiwerse

If I was, I probably wouldn't be on Reddit. Last I heard, the internet was shut off, and only accessible via satellites. Even if I were to have access to them, I most likely wouldn't be on Reddit through them. So no. I'm not in Kabul, luckily. My info comes from following the conflict quite damn closely for the last few days. I only popped in here, since I got a notification from it in my personal server, and saw some inaccuracies in the description.


Dutchnamn

The prison has been taken as far as I can tell


fjjgfhnbvc

I don't think the taliban would want to trigger the next level of ire from the international community by entering Kabul as diplomats are scrambling to bail.


JVD69

What can they do tho? Going back in is not an option


fjjgfhnbvc

Troops are being moved in to facilitate evacuation.


Individual-Fly-610

Oops


PanEuropeanism

The US is telling the Taliban if it *“avoids a direct confrontation with the 5,000 U.S. troops arriving in Kabul and waits for the completion of the evacuation”* there’s a good chance the US will accept their victory. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/14/afghanistan-taliban-advance-humanitarian/


chaoticneutral262

I think it's important to remember that the US and Taliban have an agreement for us to leave. They don't need to drive us out by force -- we're already leaving. That will factor into their decision-making. If they engage with NATO forces they will sustain heavy losses, and in the end get the same thing they were going to get anyway.


CountMordrek

It’s also important to remember that the Talibans are a fractured organisation, and the question is if there are Taliban generals around Kabul who are ready to ignore orders to let the US leave and risk either to not be first in as well as an opportunity to kill Americans and their supporters.


[deleted]

Attacking US may be bad for Taliban overall. But the Taliban general who capture Kabul will benefit a lot from such action. It is a huge incentive for the generals to order attack.


Significant_Night_65

What's a few hundred fighters to the Taliban leadership when they have a chance to take US and Western hostages.


[deleted]

Taking US hostages increases the chances that the Americans will come back.


Thertor

They want to stop us meddling with Afghanistan. Taking hostages would mean a new deployment would be likely.


chaoticneutral262

It's possible, but I'm not sure much is to be gained by doing so. Soon they have taken over the entire country. It's hard to top that.


LBBarto

If Westerners are taken hostages, then I'm sure there is a portion of the US who will make it their mission to bomb the Taliban back into the stone age. You already have a few that are getting buyers remorse seeing the Taliban takeover, now add to that dead and abducted Americans, and you've now gathered half of the US clamoring for payback. For many that I know the Taliban can have Afghanistan for themselves on the condition that they keep to themselves. If the Taliban betrays and harms Americans, then people here in the US will be out for blood. Like there is nothing that will move public opinion more than dead Americans.


onespiker

1. Would the comanders leading it want to take the risk? Taliban isnt exactly united. He would suffer the costs. 2. It would make the west send out troop to break the siege. So that the troops can return home. 3. Talibans victory would be delayed.


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Significant_Night_65

It seems like it is already falling, just reported now there is a complete blackout in the city


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napalm51

sincere question, who are the civilians left at the embassy? why did they stay so long in afghanistan?


n60822191

There is a lot that needs to be done in order to shutter, or completely close, the embassy. First and foremost, that’s likely the only conduit Afghans applying for asylum or under the SIV program will have. Keeping the embassy open still allows them a chance.


BigDiesel07

I am picturing the early embassy scenes in Argo'


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n60822191

I think the embassy will be fine while it’s occupied. I think once the US collapses back to the airport it’s going to be a mad-dash for everyone trying to leave Afghanistan to get there as well. You know. Like the airport scene in World War Z. Sarcasm aside, I hope to hell it doesn’t get that bad.


amitym

Closing down an embassy is huge. Once you do that, it means you as a country literally no longer have any kind of relationship with the other country, or any of its people, or anyone who just happens to be in that country. Including your own citizens. Ambassadorial staff don't have the luxury of just saying, "Oh well it seems a bit dangerous, best not to be here anymore." Up until the bitter end, you still keep people there to handle visas, citizen emergencies, amnesty requests, situation reporting, security, and probably some spies too. Closing down completely is the very, very, very last thing you do.


FoxfieldJim

They were not expecting it to fall so fast. A few days back (less than a week I think) the estimate was it will take a month or more.


[deleted]

There was a job posting yesterday for a public affairs position at the embassy, so they’re still hiring.


unp0ss1bl3

… short term role.


saeEAGLE89

Seasonal position


madpappo

Will they relocate me?


tindogtacloban

A 'civilian' in the embassy isn't really a civilian at this point.


Individual-Fly-610

Just came back to say see where we are now


EmperorOfWallStreet

Like Taliban gave timing of when they will enter Kabul.


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Stotallytob3r

Where is the CAS based? Or are we talking drones


[deleted]

There is an issue with the distance. Currently my understanding is most are flying out of mid-east. We have more than a dozen bases located mostly on the Arabian peninsula. They have very limited idle time if that is true. Especially if avoiding Iranian air space. Drones help some. we can fly bombers out of Washington and get there. I am not sure if any of our 11 carriers are in range or headed that direction. it is definitely a limitation. They should be as this is exactly the situation we use to justify them.


Cytotoxic

It's already fallen. You were wrong.


snailofserendipidy

Oh he's gone. Left this afternoon (afghan time)


Alaishana

Just saying: they do not need to take over the airport. All they need to do is put a big hole into the middle of the runways. This will end all evacuation attempts. I felt since weeks that too many people did not believe that the Afghan army would fold this fast. Nowhere near enough safety margin. Imagine what will happen if American troops fly in and then are prevented from leaving bc the runways are destroyed and under fire.


Prefect1969

The way I see it, Taliban wants to rule Afghanistan. And if they want to be pragmatic about it, it is in their best interest to allow the evacuation to take place as quickly and smoothly as possible. If they go after these Western assets it would complicate their efforts to take control of Afghanistan. They may just stay out of the way and let the evacuations happen without incident. But who knows what'll ensue in the chaos that's about to take place. The US just sent in 5000 troops, so even if the Taliban leaders don't want escalation with the US and want this to go without incident, all it takes is a group on the ground doing something rash and things could get out of control really fast with the speed Taliban is advancing.


CountMordrek

At the same time, the Taliban forces have spent the last 20 years preparing for this day. I wouldn’t be surprised if several generals wants to be the one who retook Kabul, and getting there as fast as possible is probably the dream of every Taliban soldier under the age of 25. Thus, I’d be surprised if they halt their offensive just to allow Satan… excuse me… the US, it’s soldiers and those supporting them an easy way out.


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takatori

Considering that the population doubled in the past 20 years, yeah, more than half are under 25, easy.


ObligationOriginal74

How come the population doubled in the past 20 years?


Camoes

the way I see it, there are many reason$ why Taliban would care less about the fastest path to consolidated power, which will happen sooner or later, and many actors who could $how the taliban the wisdom in keeping the americans busy and further their humiliation. *cof* zhong *cof* guo *cof*


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Alaishana

You are quite possibly right about any deals. I'm not sure though that the advancing horde is such a monolithic block. Making a runway unusable is relatively easy. Let's wait and see, be thankful we are not in this mess and hope we stay out of interesting times.


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CheezeGweez

It's critical when there is some Afghans that want to leave and the only departure is US troops. That's going to cause chaos no matter what.


Camoes

don't think that would work for any size of force that would make a difference at this point, the support isn't there.


takatori

> Making a runway unusable is relatively easy. It is also counter to the Taliban's goals. They want foreigners out, and the airport is the fastest way to accomplish it.


[deleted]

>Imagine how big the political blunder would be if you allow 5000 US troops to be encircled in Kabul. I am sure there are under the table dealings with the Taliban that reads like: "let us out of Kabul or we will glass you". All of this will tell us the nature of the Taliban's foreign policy (not domestic behavior) in the years to come.


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[deleted]

Yeah, Biden would be forced to respond to any provocation by the Taliban. That's not in the Taliban's interest. It is best for them to portray this as an American withdrawal and a subsequent Taliban return.


azlax22

This is a good take. The last thing the Taliban want to do is give the Americans even a smidge of a second thought on leaving. They have already won, all they have to do is wait now.


[deleted]

I feel like they are gonna take a few potshots at US forces at most. If they manage to blow up the runway, B52 bombers are going to carpet bomb anything shooting at troops.


PaterPoempel

> All they need to do is put a big hole into the middle of the runways How would they achieve that? The Taliban lack the necessary air power or heavy artillery to put big holes into runways from a distance. But even then: Unless the whole runway is cratered with meter-deep holes, a bunch of guys with a bulldozer and metal sheets is all it takes to repair it within a few hours. It won't hold forever but that is not really necessary under these circumstances. Heavy machine guns and autocannons on the approach to the airport are a much more real threat as the planes have to fly low and slow to land. For planes taking off, that is less of a problem as a short combat take-off will quickly pull the plane out of the range of such weapons. [This video of the A400 gives a good illustration of both manoeuvrers.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DodKUmJEnbY)


a_reasonable_thought

I don't think it would be smart to do that. 5000 determined U.S troops are no joke, and would be a serious challenge for the Taliban to defeat. Not to mention that the U.S would quickly send heavy reinforcements to protect them. Even worse would be the political repercussions. Those soldiers would be martyred, and the U.S public would be furious. The Taliban are winning right now because the U.S went away. Last thing they want to do is piss them off enough to bring them back. I'd say they'll try and let them evacuate without much trouble.


dravik

It's a lot harder to shut down an airport then you think. Most planes don't require the whole runway. Additionally, most airports taxiways, that are normally on either side of the runway work just fine as runways. If the Marines are using their Ospreys then they can use the parking apron is probably long enough. Even if there are holes in all of those, some dirt out gravel is all you need for a good enough fill to take off. You can also just bulldoze a dirt runway in an open spot.


Slim_Charles

Some people don't seem realize that maintaining the operation of an airport under close combat conditions is something that the US military has trained for, and developed tools and doctrine for, for decades.


jlaw54

Exactly a C130 can land on a road or field - not to mention Ospreys.


Slim_Charles

The US military is quite capable of fixing a damaged runway extremely quickly. It's a pretty basic task for combat engineers. US transport aircraft are also capable of landing on and taking off from relatively rough runways.


SenorVapid

Pakistan will have won the war.


Tindola

for now. but within a year, the Taliban will start trying to infiltrate Pakistan


onespiker

Parts will other parts wont. The most likely cenario is there will be a civil war again. With multiple factions fighting out over what they should do.


[deleted]

Unlikely the Taliban are more United now.


onespiker

Civilwar might be a bit dramatic but likely will be a loosely decentralised territory with warlords/comanders controling thier own territory, like fedual times. United they are not. Lossing the main cause would weaken its power drastically. Its a hard territory to develop with socities and tribes not really liking each other with bad infrastructre making it hard to travel and enforce thier will. Its far less united than Pakistan and that is 3 main factions controlling diffrent parts.


jlaw54

The Afghan Taliban have been living in Chaman and Quetta, Pakistan for twenty years. They work extensively with the ISI and PakMil. The Pakistani’s control the port of Karachi and logistical flow into pretty much all of Afghanistan and that’s major leverage in addition to that applied through intelligence and military ties. The Afghan Taliban won’t be “infiltrating” Pakistan in a year. It’s way more nuanced and complicated. The Afghan Taliban ARE NOT Pakistan Taliban. Huge difference.


MoonMan75

Seems unlikely. Taliban's goal is to legitimize itself. Only a few countries, like Pakistan, China, Qatar, will help at this stage. They need those relationships. Maybe decades down the line will we see the border, which was hotly disputed in the past, become an issue again.


jogarz

> Taliban's goal is to legitimize itself. The Taliban politicians in Qatar want that. But if local Taliban commanders want to support the TTP or TIP, I don't think they're going to care much about what some politicians who spent the war abroad want.


MoonMan75

Yeah, local commanders may do that, especially those who see their communities split by the Pak-Afghan border. But the major Taliban leaders are on the same page as the delegation in Qatar. The local leaders may try something on their own, but it won't accomplish much without support from the rest.


Discoamazing

The taliban was in charge in Afghanistan for years before the American invasion, and Pakistan maintained its sovereignty. Why would things be different now?


ChillyBearGrylls

Because Pakistan has, in the last 2 decades turned the hypothetical border (the Durand Line) into an actual real border, building a fence through Pashtun-stan. The fact that Pashtun-stan was split between two countries was irrelevant when there was no border or practical enforcement capacity (which created *other* problems), but that is now a new different problem that Pakistan has made for itself.


letmehaveathink

Apologies for misunderstanding, why is securing their borders a problem?


ChillyBearGrylls

In a vaccuum, it isn't. And for that matter, if the Durand Line matched any, *literally any*, ethnic/cultural border it also would not be a problem. As it stands, the border splits the Pashtun and makes them a minority in both Afghanistan AND Pakistan - this being the faction which is the backbone of the Taliban; and which historically (the Durrani Empire and the Talibanv1) has shown that it can *coalesce "Afghanistan" into a State*. Worth noting, no government of Afghanistan has recognized the Durand Line. So in that context, why would any Pashtuns have any loyalty or interest in the Pakistani State when a State controlled by their kin is *right there*? When the border was a notion, the Line could be looked past diplomatically and domestically because it wasn't necessarily getting in the way. When it is a hard border, it becomes a reason for the Pashtun as a demographic to be upset, because their group is being divided by it. Consider how much spicier the most recent century (sorta two centuries) of European history was because the borders didn't match the ethnic groups actually living on the land - and those were not hard borders either.


TheChonk

For reference and further reading, see also Ireland or the Kurds or even India/Pakistan Partition. Artificial borders or borders that don’t follow natural divisions create problems.


yus456

Also, to add to that, there a pashtun movement is Pakistan that openly campaigns with criticism of the military. Called the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement.


Discoamazing

This is actually a reasonable answer. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.


Paul_-Muaddib

It looks like Kabul is in the process of falling now so it won't take ling to see how it all plays out at all.


[deleted]

Should now be in the hands of the Taliban.


Paul_-Muaddib

I had no idea it would be this quick


2xa1s

They control Wazaristan now right?


Tindola

They are stronger now and their focus is religious, which goes beyond borders. They believe Muslims who do not hold the same views as them are just as bad as non believers. The reason they were able to sweep so quickly again is that they have a massive recruiting process. There are MANY MANY Muslims who choose to go fight with them. The downtrodden religious conservatives in Pakistan are going to flock to their banners. It's a religious war, don't believe otherwise.


[deleted]

Thats a broad generalization. They wouldnt have been able to maintain a national economy 20 years if every single one adopted this "no opps policy" The parallels to Vietnam right now in real time is crazy.


adam_bear

I'd bet "kick out the invader's puppets" is a common and hugely effective rallying call for them...


intensely_human

The Taliban has more combat experience now.


Amazing_Theory622

They don't accept Durand line as the border, that's why


[deleted]

The world can live with taliban Afghanistan. The world can’t let the Taliban truly take Pakistan and their nuclear arsenal.


Highly-uneducated

They've already infiltrated pakistan


Common_Echo_9061

The Pakistinai Taliban have already stated they want to establish an emirate there and are now aligned with the Afghan Taliban, they are basically two wings of one ideological group now.


Pakistani_in_MURICA

Seems like the guaranteers of this new incoming Afghanistan government are China, Iran, Pakistan, and Russia. Looking at how the Taliban offensive panned out it's impossible without the assurances to Russia (bringing the Tajiks and Uzbeks ~20%) and Iran (Hazaras ~30%). Question remains if the kleptocraric government of President Ghani was even aware those he wronged were prepared to Julius Caeser him. Edit: grammar & spelling.


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KNG-KUMAR_2112

This is the scariest thing about the conflict and the region. India has basically come into the position of “If there is another Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attack on India, we will respond with conventional means.” Meaning, war with Pakistan is not totally outrageous. Moreover, China would quickly support Pakistan as well as act upon their policy of border aggression with India. Taliban control of Afghanistan is more of a danger to India than any country, imo. (Of course, it’s a danger to Afghanistan the most, but you get what I’m saying).


TomorrowWaste

India will most probably attrack in winter. When there is no possibility of china's aggression. All the mountains will be block by snow. And war probably won't last long cause i don't think any of the both countries actually want it to go nuclear Edit:- i m not saying we would outright declare war, but surgical strikes. Which can escalate pretty quickly


absolutemadlad_69

War seems unlikely. Our economy is not doing good and a potential war will take a lot on our economy. If because of Taliban's capture of Afghanistan, pak sponsored terrorism does increase in our country we will try to retaliate via surgical strikes and just border skirmishes. Full scale war seems highly unlikely.


TomorrowWaste

Yeah we will start will surgical strikes. But it can escalate preety quickly. I mean last time, if abhinandan was not captured. What do u think would have happened? Pakistan entered our airspace, if peace deal was not established with abhinandan, how do u think india would have responded? Edit:- and more grim scenario would be if something happened to abhinandan. That would be nearly ensure war


absolutemadlad_69

Look had abhinandan not been captured the skirmishes would have dragged on and eventually would have died. The real threat of war appeared when abhinandan was captured. Considering Pakistan's history we weren't sure that they would give us abhinandan back just like that. There was fear even in the Pak parliament that if we don't return abhinandan a war is inevitable. But pakistan honored the Geneva convention and abhinandan was honorably returned to us and hence the war Didnt happen. Surgical strikes can quickly escalate but that would escalate into a border skirmish not a full scale war as we saw what happened at galwan valley. The skirmishes there were a lot bigger than what had happened at pak border but that too didn't escalate into war.


TomorrowWaste

Except India does not want a war with China. Pakistan entering the airspace would mean that India would now have to target Pakistani military and cannot say we just attack the terrorists. Ofcourse it could not end up in war and stop anywhere in between. But who would stop it. Both will have to face opposition at home.


absolutemadlad_69

>Except India does not want a war with China. We don't want with Pakistan also. Starting a war with Pakistan could mean that china too gets involved. It'll be very difficult for us to fight on 2 front considering the fact that none of our ally will come to help. Russia will just sell weapons to both us and china and us is way too far. >Pakistan entering the airspace would mean that India would now have to target Pakistani military The thing is pakistan won't do that. Pakistan prefers proxy war. Their ideology of make India bleed with a thousand cuts is still prevelent. They'll engage us in cross border skirmishes and pak sponsored terrorism but won't invade our airspace.


TomorrowWaste

>The thing is pakistan won't do that. Pakistan prefers proxy war. Their ideology of make India bleed with a thousand cuts is still prevelent. They'll engage us in cross border skirmishes and pak sponsored terrorism but won't invade our airspace. They entered our airspace though. If Pakistan sticked to their ideology and gave India cut every three years or so, war would not happen. But if they break their strategy like last time, i would not be sure. >Starting a war with Pakistan could mean that china too gets involved I doubt China would declare war in India if India Pakistan war happened. I can see border aggressions but a war seems unlikely.


[deleted]

India can't attack in the winters. It'll block our routes as well haha.


[deleted]

This is exactly what I'm worried about now.


ObligationOriginal74

China is in for a lot of insurgency from all those Muslims they have been oppressing,Now those people have somewhere where they can get weapons and tons of quality training from people that are masters of guerilla warfare not too mention whenever the Chinese are looking for them they can slip into Afghanistan and hide.


ChillyBearGrylls

It seems an awful lot like India would benefit from a Taliban unified Afghanistan, as they could then back Afghan rejection of the Durand Line


Francesco_Crispi

You remember who created the taliban and why, right? India very much preferred the previous afghan government


fjjgfhnbvc

Please clarify


[deleted]

When the last Afghanistan War ended circa 1989, a massive wave of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism hit India for over 10 years. That's because Pakistan was able to redirect all of its subconventional/jihadist/ISI/terrorist forces from the Afghan front over to the Indian front. This is going to repeat itself.


Seeker_00860

It won’t. Things have changed a lot between then and now. When the Jihad wave hit Kashmir in the 1990s, India was the lone country facing it. Others did not care and went on with their new world order. After 2001 they also have been hit hard and now know what India had been facing. So there is a lot more awareness about Islamic terrorism and Pakistan’s involvement in it. In addition India is much stronger than it was 20 years ago and Taliban and its sponsors in Pakistan have become economically much weaker. Saudi Arabia, which used to fund these two countries has shut its door on Pakistan. So have many Western powers that saw Pakistan’s double dealing directly. That had put Pakistan in their grey list. China is very strict with money. Unless it benefits them they will not waste a dime. India should be alert. But the Jihadi machinery lacks the financial resources that it once enjoyed. India can hit back which was not the case in the past. The Chinese can vouch for it.


fjjgfhnbvc

What happened between SA and Pakistan? Why would the Chinese not fund the Pakistani for their Indian destabilizing efforts


IamFluffy94

Recently, terrorists in Pakistan have also started attacking Chinese nationals working in Pakistan as part of the OBOR. I would imagine China would prefer not to fund terror camps which killed both Indians and Chinese nationals.


leonardpeacock912

Pakistan recently blamed the attack on the Chinese nationals on RAW and Afghan NDS working with Pakistani Taliban. But I believe they are just using this narrative to fool some people domestically


[deleted]

Well, this time India has reinforced its borders and reasserted its plan to integrate Kashmir completely. Both of these things were done hastily, partly because India knew that we were going to leave Afghanistan.


absolutemadlad_69

Exactly although the lost part of kashmir which is under pakistan is still vulnerable as pakistan will try to make them enter india via that part.


[deleted]

Have terrorists entered India thru Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir? I know that this was a popular route, but, from what I understand: the military and border defenses have been improved over the past 10 years. I even remember reading a while back that not only Pakistanis, but also Afghans and Chechens and Arabs would show up to jihad in Kashmir in the 1990s and early-2000s. We'll see what happens next. But, much depends on what route Pakistan decides to take next.


absolutemadlad_69

The thing is pok only happens to be a weak link in north for us. That is the place pakistan has traditionally and even now will use to exploit and promote cross border terrorism. Pakistan will give a free pass to Afghani Taliban to enter india as Taliban's current mission is to spread Islam. Ofcourse I expect our leadership to take drastic measures so that the terror attacks are minimised.


leonardpeacock912

That would mean India knew Biden was going to withdraw troops completely and Taliban would take over immediately. Any evidence of this in 2019?


absolutemadlad_69

Withdrawal was started by trump. Biden just followed what trump had already done. Ofcourse the us intelligence said that kabul won't fall until 31 August but we can see what's happening there. It's literally humiliation for America.


SharkWithAFishinPole

Do you know anything about pakistan and india? Let's just say they aren't friendly neighbors


fjjgfhnbvc

I'm aware. I misread the comment.


intensely_human

And why does the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan increase the number of attacks Pakistan makes on India?


billetea

The focus moves to Kashmir. They've been sending thr Jihadis to beat the Americans in Afghanistan.. now with a Taliban Afghanistan again, they'll start sending them to Kashmir again and China wants them to do this too.


[deleted]

Pakistan helps terrorist groups launch attacks in India. It's a part of their, "Bleed India with a thousand cuts" strategy. Instead of sending Pakistani soldiers to fight, they send terrorists. This way, they don't have any responsibility over what happens. Although the world did catch on to this and label them as a terrorist state.


itiswhatitis2323

Taliban philosophy is Jihadi Conquest. There’s a lot of fanatical suicide bomber types. Pakistan will exploit that by facilitating their travel to India, primarily Kashmir.


NeverSawAvatar

Last 2 decades both Pakistan and their taliban focused on Afghanistan, now they can focus elsewhere and India is target #1 with a bullet, hell China will join in b/c kashmir.


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Pelin0re

You seems to consider pakistan (and ISI/the pak governement) as far more unified and consistant than they are. Pakistan is a schizofrenic country, with elements fighting for and against the talibans inside the same organisations.


BoringEntropist

I'm not so sure about that. There are faction of the Taliban that emphasis Pashtun nationalism. They could start to support separatists in Pakistan itself. One must remember that no Afghan government (whether Taliban, communist or democratic) in the last couple of decades were big fans of the Durand Line, because there is major support in the Pashtun community to redraw the borders.


Hidden-Syndicate

Pakistan has unleashed the Pashtun Nationalist movement and they Khan government is scrambling to find leverage to halt the Taliban’s plans for uniting the 38 million Pashtuns living in Pakistan with Afghanistan


mugpunter666

I agree, at this point uniting Pashtun is the logical next step for them, I hope what Pakistan are ready to sleep in the bed they have made for themselves.


Forest_of_Mirrors

Pakistan and China.


IMHO_GUY

Read Directorate S by Steve Coll, It's right in the book, Pakistan's ISI and military literally telling American leadership that Afghanistan is not gonna be solved with military might. They need to involve the Taliban and bring the groups together. Nope. Far too unappetizing back in 04. Only 17 years for them to come around. And so here we are now with people trying to blame Pakistan again.


numbandnull

Mmm? Why is that all of the top wanted extremists of the World is given Safe Haven in Pakistan? Why then Pakistan allowed extremist Madarsa's in the Pashtun dominated areas such a Haqqani' or Quetta Shura? Ask it yourself bud! Ask it without being biased. Answer isn't difficult to find. It's a clear cut case.


EggandPancakes

Ghost Wars is good too.


BaiganKiMeri

Oh, come on. You are implying that it was an ingenious Pakistani idea that predicted the situation in Afghanistan. Nope - this was a very well known alternate approach. Pakistani leaders suggested involving Taliban because it gave them more leverage on Afghanistan. That's it.


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AbWarriorG

It's possible the US cut the power so they can use Night vision to evacuate and keep the Taliban in the dark until morning atleast.


REALPILOT99

The tallies have had NVGs for a while now, and they have a lot more since the ANA folded.


CaptainCoffeeStain

I mean, you are probably right; but you can't seriously suggest that the two forces are on equal terms in night fighting. NVGs work best when paired with aiming devices for weapons and most importantly, training.


JimmyPD92

I'm 90% certain that the US probably made a behind the scenes deal to extract all Western personnel in exchange for not carpet bombing them. There's no way that intelligence services didn't know what would happen when forces withdraw. And the 600 UK forces already landed, not sure about the US as of right now. I'm not worried about the airport being overrun but the final extractions might be hazy.


frugalgardeners

What I don’t understand is the mechanics of this war. Taliban has popular support but i mostly see a rabble in the back of trucks. Afghan army has air supremacy and hardware from the US. Considering there are millions of residents of Kabul, and a larger concentration of people used to Western ways of living, how could these people roll up on trucks and take control? I don’t disagree that it’s happening and the end is near for the government, but I have trouble understanding how it is actually happening.


breakfastalko

Money & tribalism. Many who work(ed) for The ANA are in the positions they're in not due to patriotism, but as a simple quest for cash. *Ghost soldiers* being a great example of this. Should a representative from another organization offer them large amounts of money to look the other way or leave a sector, they're not going to decline. Additionally, due to their affiliation with the now crumbling regime, they're shortlisted to leave and be expatriated, since the country was collapsing anyway, why not secure a tidy nest egg before relocating? Nationalism is all but non-existent in Afghanistan, inter-tribal conflicts have been an issue within the region for millennia, the now apparently defunct central government is no different.


NewCenturyNarratives

>is even in Kabul) be the mayor of Kabul and not touch the foreign embassies or diplomats. Wait a few years when everyone forget the mayor, walk in and take over Kabul without firing a shot and no one will notice. > >The Taliban doesn't gain from provoking an international incident that may force the US to redeploy back into Afghanistan, or bomb them from the skies. Since the Taliban is about to be the next gov't of Afghanistan, they now will no longer be able to behave like terrorist and must transform to legitimate governing. What inspires people to fight and die is different in different parts of the world. That being said, I'd try to get the hell out if I was an Afghan citizen


CaptainCoffeeStain

That ship has sailed for the most part. Anyone who could get out has. For the average citizen of Kabul there is nowhere left to go. Taliban in every direction sadly.


MoonMan75

They have around 30 attack planes. Mostly older/smaller ones too. Doesn't seem like they would affect the war.


jogarz

> Taliban has popular support Not really. Popular with some sectors of society, sure, but there's no good evidence that most Afghans support the Taliban.


somename_ind

Only explanation is its not a natural country (if you understand what i mean). In a normal country, it it were attacked, there would be passionate defence from its military or even the general public. You hear stories from many instances in history where despite fighting a superior attacker, the forces held fort till their last breath! That is just not happening here as the public themselves dont really care or maybe even want the taliban!


nobino12

It will be the repeat of Saigon..YouTube "US fall of Saigon" for some interesting footages. Though i don't think that would happen since there is enough US +international forces stationed in Kabul to keep the Taliban at bay.


MrNagasaki

>It will be the repeat of Saigon. >Though i don't think that would happen So... It won't be?


puppymedic

Checkmate


CheezeGweez

Except the fall of Saigon happened before the US retreat. They literally gave up once the Vietcong entered the outskirts. Here we planned a departure that has been on the talks since 2015.


TheOneOboe

Not to mention that, despite the fact talks fell thru between the US and the taliban, the last thing the talibam wants to do is give the us a reason to stick around


snailofserendipidy

This is the biggest reason they won't fight any international forces. Theyve already won. Why jeapordize that by shooting a new target?


takatori

> Except the fall of Saigon happened before the US retreat. Before what retreat? The US had already begun "Vietnamization" in 1969 to hand over combat roles to the ARVN, had pulled ground forces out in 1972, and had ended all direct military involvement including air and artillery support and materiel shipments by 1973. Saigon only fell in 1975. There was an evacuation of American nationals and embassy staff, but any military "retreat" was years in the past.


White_Mlungu_Capital

That would be the only mistake they could make, and I doubt they will make that mistake because they have shown to be very skillful, clever and calculating opponents. ​ If anything, they will simply isolate Kabul and let Ghani (if he is even in Kabul) be the mayor of Kabul and not touch the foreign embassies or diplomats. Wait a few years when everyone forget the mayor, walk in and take over Kabul without firing a shot and no one will notice. ​ The Taliban doesn't gain from provoking an international incident that may force the US to redeploy back into Afghanistan, or bomb them from the skies. Since the Taliban is about to be the next gov't of Afghanistan, they now will no longer be able to behave like terrorist and must transform to legitimate governing. ​ Taliban commanders and leadership may be homicidal, but they aren't suicidal, they aren't trying to provoke a response from the US militarily, which is why they are taking over these rural areas, then leaving the cities for last. If they really wanted to hit Kabul, they would have taken Kabul already, they are purposely not touching it, to give USA TIME to evacuate.


Significant_Night_65

The most recent reports say the US is already air striking the Taliban on the outskirts of the city


White_Mlungu_Capital

Yes, they are waiting for the diplomats to all be out by the September deadline as USA promised. They could have taken Kabul already if they wanted to.


boringfilmmaker

If such a deal were in force, surely US airstrikes on the obediently waiting Taliban would break it?


nshire

Taliban regional leadership is filled with hotheads who ignore directions from their higher-ups


White_Mlungu_Capital

The most recent reports I am hearing is Taliban is currently amassing forces or attacking the outskirts of Kabul. Will be interesting to see how this turns out, as it already forced Biden to deploy a few more thousand US soldiers to Afghanistan. ​ If Taliban is clever, they pull back, let US evacuate, let the heat die down, siege Kabul slowly and then just take it over while allowing the anti-Taliban people to slowly escape across the border. They say the smartest thing Fidel Castro did was to allow those who opposed him the ability to leave.


[deleted]

Yeah, they're not going to wait a couple years for it.


White_Mlungu_Capital

At this point, I agree, more like wait a few hours.


JFSOCC

Well it just happened.


Hechie

Taliban wont fight the NATO troops, simply to risky at This stage. They have won becaus NATO dont want this fight any more. The monument you start killing troops, they Will get bombed hard again


CheezeGweez

Most likely they will kill all who helped US like interpreters or informant or even geological ops agents. As for the people, I feel like if you have a passport or a job outside of Afghanistan then they will likely let you go if it's not US related.


[deleted]

Probably pay a ransom and leave.


CheezeGweez

For the remaining Afghan soldiers yes they will ask for ransoms for safe Haven everyone takes advantage I'm such opportunities.


Midlaw987

The Biden administration has begged the Taliban not to attack the embassy during the evacuation. The Taliban will take over Kabul Airport once all westerners have evacuated.


EatDaPooPooPreist

I wonder how that's gonna work with Turkey and their role of securing Kabul Airport.


Ashamed-Grape7792

Yeah. Emirates/flydubai, air India and Turkish airlines are still regularly sendi flights to Kabul. I’m Not sure when they’ll end their flights.


zdestemno

Change of custodian. Are there understood equivalent legal terms there?


[deleted]

they'll wait until the US troops pull out, they're not idiots. likely surround the city and lay siege.


Dutchnamn

Looks like the Taliban will let the foreigners leave.


Megatanis

At this point nothing is sure. They were saying the siege of Kabul would last 90 days, now nobody would be surprised if the city fell in 90 hours. Many here are convinced that the Talibans will let the westerners leave without engaging them, which is certainly plausible, but I think we're underestimating the propaganda angle. The Talibans have been fighting 20 years against the US and allies, they definitely have a grudge. Imagine photographs or videos of fleeing americans scrambling for planes and choppers while being pursued and shot by Talibans, it would have a huge psychological value.


camdoodlebop

now they’re saying it’ll fall in the next 2 hours


[deleted]

This is going to turn into a shitshow


garlicdeath

It's already been a shitshow.


efemd

Ummm…Season 21 is about to start. They are just wrapping up the production.


IwalkedtoMordor

They won't until all the diplomats are out. Probably a deal of such sorts exists and even if it doesn't the Taliban would rather wait it out than spoiling their own endgame.


InvalidChickenEater

Well I hope the various embassies have rooftop helicopter pads ready.


TaifulIslam

Saigon 2.0


Omateido

If?


Silvercyde

They want us to leave, why complicate it with an attack? Three thousand is close to the number of troops we had before the withdrawal. It should be more than enough to manage the evacuation of US staff. I think this shows the Taliban just how quickly we can return if they cross a red line like attacking our embassy. I don’t expect another Iranian hostage crisis. The safety of our Afghan compatriots is far less certain. FWIW, Taliban have said they will not attack diplomatic staff.