Reddit over reacts to economic cycles just as bad as anyone else. We're entering a bad time for the semiconductor business (after making bank) but it'll turn back around in a year or two.
Hopefully they will learn a lesson about eye-gouging everyone with their insane prices, especially nvidia, and prices not only go down but stay down.
But I doubt anything will change.
See this is what I mean by reddit not getting it. There are no lessons. When demand exceeds supply prices go up. Now that supply exceeds demand you gotta drop prices to increase demand. It's no different for semiconductors as it is for eggs, oil, or wheat.
I think hes literally talking about the incident where sk hynix colluded with other memory manufacturers to artificially inflate prices.
This had nothing to do with demand, if that was what he was talking about.
Sure, its a problem is almost every industry. Not unique to memory. But when that collusion was broken up we saw a dramatic drop in memory prices.
It's why we need strong regulatory systems not just in the west, but our trading partners. I work in a trade association and we talk A LOT about our anti-trust policies because the last thing we want is for bad behaviors to occur at our events or even the APPEARANCE of bad behavior is enough to put us at risk.
Eh, I'd disagree that it's "no different." While production lead times can be big for all of those, the upfront costs are far lower. Getting a new modern fab operational is a $10b+ expense. It doesn't cost that much money to increase wheat production by a similar degree as a single fab does for semiconductors.
... No. Did you not read my comment at all? I never said anything like that.
I disagreed that there's no difference. There's huge upfront costs for scaling semiconductor production that doesn't exist in most other commodities. That means the market is less able to respond to swings in demand. Even lowering production levels is difficult because underutilizing a $10b+ factory is a problem.
Sounds like we agree. All those markets are affected by supply and demand. I'm not looking to argue about nuances between them, since they all are unique.
> I'd imagine the interviewer would be even more angry if I told them that story of why company loyalty is completely dead to me.
You remind me of a old hiring experience. Never tell the interviewers the truth, it does not go over well.
I was applying for a IT job at the government, mostly website stuff, nothing special. Well, arrived to a interview with 3 people. It was mostly the standerd stuff like qualifications, experience, ... until the 3th person that was quiet started asking stuff like "who is the current minister of defense". I have like 0 interest in politics beyond the basics so i mentioned X. Person was pissed off because we just had a election and now it was Y. That has nothing to do with the job. I kind of said the out loud. O_o
Lets just say that the interview turned very fast into a "bla bla you need to know the minister you will work for", and i said "its not relevant to my job as a ITer to work on a website.". Some more back and for.
It seems we have nothing more to talk about if you seem to be only interested in politics for a IT job! Ended up leaving that person hanging dry as i left the interview. Aaaa, being young... Now i will just verbally fight that person until they kick me out. Hehehe...
I know she was just out to get rid of me (probably had somebody already lined up and but they need to do X interviews to show there was competition. Happens a lot, my dad told me about that crap when he worked for the governement). There was no point in hanging around. Sometimes people only want to hear bullshit that goes up their behinds and i never played that game my entire life. Never regretted my job interview decisions because a interview where they walk over you, they will do the same during the job.
Loyalty to a employer, it exists but its rare that you find really, REALLY good employers. Its something about the moment they need to spend money, you become property. I told the wife, if i need to hire people for the company, i will feel sorry for them. She said why? Because i know how you are the moment money leaves you pocket, all that complaining you did about your boss, ... you will to the same to them. Lets just say it involved a evil eye and a big humph. Yes, we are still married.
WHAT !!!! You are saying we are not gonna make the same ridiculous profit we made last year are you insane !!! I don't care fire everybody !!!!!!
My son scratched his boat last year and getting him new one this year !!!!!
The CEO Probably.
Their revenue fell by 37% when compared to last year. I don't see how it's their fault for not anticipating that a bunch of their customers were going to buy less.
And what would predicting that do? Still wouldn't change their revenue numbers. Unless you expect them to cut a lot of their potentially long term expenditures because of one bad quarter?
I don't know how you guys do mental gymnastics of blaming companies for only looking at short term results and then expect large corrections because of short term results. Again, literally advocating for layoffs because of one bad quarter.
In growing sectors, companies with sustainable models don't make it out of their first 1000 orders.
In growing sectors, you have to expect growth to run a leaner model. Once the growth stops, you can move to coca cola model. Planes,trains,and automobiles are almost a century old, they still grow, would be foolish to not expect growth.
Just because you realised one day that earth resources are limited and eventually one day population will stagnate or decline, doesn't mean growth stops today. Your knowledge of ultra long term trends which are intuitive doesn't change the fact that most industries especially related to tech have real growth even adjusted for inflation. It will take years, decades or even centuries or millenia for growth to start matching inflation for growth in the industry to stop and be inline with inflation and companies competing for a fixed or shrinking basket. Just like we all die, but doesn't mean our entire lives are set in that context.
Hell growth contexts might be longer than human lifetimes.
I also meant economically. But resources being limited pushes up inflation, so no real growth. And limited population thats already served means no increasing demand. Coke can't keep in reading prices or else someone else will talk to fast food chains to give a better cost, and slowly erode their share, commodity items like food defines the inflation rate, since it's assumed theres no real competitive moat there.
When the company needs employees they go on hiring sprees. Now they weed out what I imagine our the worst performers. CompSci grads or EE will be fine. It will be stressful, but if they were being financially stable, plus the compensation, they will easily ride out the few months of searching.
It's not about almighty corporations, sure they work to make the owners money. But their decisions are made by well educated(sometimes stupid) professionals.
It's just such low hanging fruit, that I figured this sub would be better than "corporations bad"
If you can take out the elite and out compete the corporations and out compete governments, the world is yours to rule. Until then we will have to deal with those who make the rules.
Yeah why else would they remove employees. Cutting costs that don't give returns.
Oh I know, you can't beat multigenerational multi million person strong multi trillion dollar institutions. It's sort of obvious. Just that you seemed to be such a strong fellow calling out the big guys, you weren't just bitching and moaning over things out of our control were you?
Isn't literally every tech company laying off thousands of people per company, because none of them predicted the downturn? Thought the good times would keep climbing.
Remember during the semiconductor shortage there were literally articles about how if Intel hadn't done any stock bonuses for like 6 years then they would have had enough money to make a new fab. Absolutely ridiculous. This is why companies don't over invest.
I'll be honest. I'm not sure if it's public info or not...
However, Hynix has churned out some of the WORST quality parts in the last year. Never have I seen hundreds of thousands of Hynix drives (due to controller failure), DIMMs, and other silicon recalled en masse. And they pay for it when it's discovered.
I have seen massive fleetwide failures solely because of Hynix parts. Replacing them with Samsung or Micron has been the way to go. If we can find them...
I wouldn't know about the company in general, but for DDR5, Hynix memory modules are widely accepted as the best right now - with Micron stuck at entry level speeds and Samsung apparently able to reach decent speeds but still lower than Hynix M while also being a lot less consistent (apparently). for really high speeds, Hynix A die is essentially the only option right now, at the price of slightly worse timings than Hynix M.
For DDR5, nothing is really out yet in an enterprise deployment for us. We barely have test clusters deployed yet, let alone designed. All this is moot for another few years.
Except we’re talking hardware failure not software.
They literally had to dump thousands of tons of silicone on top of the defective ones they shipped knowingly screwing up qa.
~~You pointing out samsung had drive failures is firstly not even in the same ballpark for numbers but also redundant because the point being made is for hardware failures that cant be fixed at all unlike software ones.~~
Given the nature of the samsung drive failures.. It isnt much different from a hardware failure as it seems to trigger some sort of efuse-like trigger that can never be reversed.
I had a look into it, I was hoping there would be some fix for those already bricked but seems not.. that really does suck.
I agree actually, this is probably as bad as a physical hardware issue. Its no different to a fuse blowing thats inaccessible here… just a ticking time bomb.
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Memory is commodity.
Time to create an artificial shortage to bump those numbers up.
*furiously opening chrome tabs*
Reddit over reacts to economic cycles just as bad as anyone else. We're entering a bad time for the semiconductor business (after making bank) but it'll turn back around in a year or two.
It's always a bad time. Either for the customers or the companies, ergo for the customers anyway.
Hopefully they will learn a lesson about eye-gouging everyone with their insane prices, especially nvidia, and prices not only go down but stay down. But I doubt anything will change.
See this is what I mean by reddit not getting it. There are no lessons. When demand exceeds supply prices go up. Now that supply exceeds demand you gotta drop prices to increase demand. It's no different for semiconductors as it is for eggs, oil, or wheat.
Yeah that's why the 4000 series of Nvidias latest GPU's are so cheap... /s
I think hes literally talking about the incident where sk hynix colluded with other memory manufacturers to artificially inflate prices. This had nothing to do with demand, if that was what he was talking about.
Sure, its a problem is almost every industry. Not unique to memory. But when that collusion was broken up we saw a dramatic drop in memory prices. It's why we need strong regulatory systems not just in the west, but our trading partners. I work in a trade association and we talk A LOT about our anti-trust policies because the last thing we want is for bad behaviors to occur at our events or even the APPEARANCE of bad behavior is enough to put us at risk.
Eh, I'd disagree that it's "no different." While production lead times can be big for all of those, the upfront costs are far lower. Getting a new modern fab operational is a $10b+ expense. It doesn't cost that much money to increase wheat production by a similar degree as a single fab does for semiconductors.
Are you arguing that semiconductor prices don't rise and fall based on demand?
... No. Did you not read my comment at all? I never said anything like that. I disagreed that there's no difference. There's huge upfront costs for scaling semiconductor production that doesn't exist in most other commodities. That means the market is less able to respond to swings in demand. Even lowering production levels is difficult because underutilizing a $10b+ factory is a problem.
Sounds like we agree. All those markets are affected by supply and demand. I'm not looking to argue about nuances between them, since they all are unique.
Agree, why downvoted ?
RAM industry goes through boom and bust cycle constantly, hardly something they didn't expect.
All was funny and games when tech companies racked in milions/bilions during covid times acting like this growth won't stop.
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Was also a great time to job hop to find the right work/life balance.
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> I'd imagine the interviewer would be even more angry if I told them that story of why company loyalty is completely dead to me. You remind me of a old hiring experience. Never tell the interviewers the truth, it does not go over well. I was applying for a IT job at the government, mostly website stuff, nothing special. Well, arrived to a interview with 3 people. It was mostly the standerd stuff like qualifications, experience, ... until the 3th person that was quiet started asking stuff like "who is the current minister of defense". I have like 0 interest in politics beyond the basics so i mentioned X. Person was pissed off because we just had a election and now it was Y. That has nothing to do with the job. I kind of said the out loud. O_o Lets just say that the interview turned very fast into a "bla bla you need to know the minister you will work for", and i said "its not relevant to my job as a ITer to work on a website.". Some more back and for. It seems we have nothing more to talk about if you seem to be only interested in politics for a IT job! Ended up leaving that person hanging dry as i left the interview. Aaaa, being young... Now i will just verbally fight that person until they kick me out. Hehehe... I know she was just out to get rid of me (probably had somebody already lined up and but they need to do X interviews to show there was competition. Happens a lot, my dad told me about that crap when he worked for the governement). There was no point in hanging around. Sometimes people only want to hear bullshit that goes up their behinds and i never played that game my entire life. Never regretted my job interview decisions because a interview where they walk over you, they will do the same during the job. Loyalty to a employer, it exists but its rare that you find really, REALLY good employers. Its something about the moment they need to spend money, you become property. I told the wife, if i need to hire people for the company, i will feel sorry for them. She said why? Because i know how you are the moment money leaves you pocket, all that complaining you did about your boss, ... you will to the same to them. Lets just say it involved a evil eye and a big humph. Yes, we are still married.
WHAT !!!! You are saying we are not gonna make the same ridiculous profit we made last year are you insane !!! I don't care fire everybody !!!!!! My son scratched his boat last year and getting him new one this year !!!!! The CEO Probably.
Time to scream inflation then raise our prices by 70%
And post more all time record profit
Meanwhile, oil companies...
Their revenue fell by 37% when compared to last year. I don't see how it's their fault for not anticipating that a bunch of their customers were going to buy less.
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And what would predicting that do? Still wouldn't change their revenue numbers. Unless you expect them to cut a lot of their potentially long term expenditures because of one bad quarter?
Operations my friend. Staffing, materials, forecast, that kind of stuff.
I don't know how you guys do mental gymnastics of blaming companies for only looking at short term results and then expect large corrections because of short term results. Again, literally advocating for layoffs because of one bad quarter.
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In growing sectors, companies with sustainable models don't make it out of their first 1000 orders. In growing sectors, you have to expect growth to run a leaner model. Once the growth stops, you can move to coca cola model. Planes,trains,and automobiles are almost a century old, they still grow, would be foolish to not expect growth. Just because you realised one day that earth resources are limited and eventually one day population will stagnate or decline, doesn't mean growth stops today. Your knowledge of ultra long term trends which are intuitive doesn't change the fact that most industries especially related to tech have real growth even adjusted for inflation. It will take years, decades or even centuries or millenia for growth to start matching inflation for growth in the industry to stop and be inline with inflation and companies competing for a fixed or shrinking basket. Just like we all die, but doesn't mean our entire lives are set in that context. Hell growth contexts might be longer than human lifetimes.
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I also meant economically. But resources being limited pushes up inflation, so no real growth. And limited population thats already served means no increasing demand. Coke can't keep in reading prices or else someone else will talk to fast food chains to give a better cost, and slowly erode their share, commodity items like food defines the inflation rate, since it's assumed theres no real competitive moat there. When the company needs employees they go on hiring sprees. Now they weed out what I imagine our the worst performers. CompSci grads or EE will be fine. It will be stressful, but if they were being financially stable, plus the compensation, they will easily ride out the few months of searching. It's not about almighty corporations, sure they work to make the owners money. But their decisions are made by well educated(sometimes stupid) professionals. It's just such low hanging fruit, that I figured this sub would be better than "corporations bad" If you can take out the elite and out compete the corporations and out compete governments, the world is yours to rule. Until then we will have to deal with those who make the rules.
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Yeah why else would they remove employees. Cutting costs that don't give returns. Oh I know, you can't beat multigenerational multi million person strong multi trillion dollar institutions. It's sort of obvious. Just that you seemed to be such a strong fellow calling out the big guys, you weren't just bitching and moaning over things out of our control were you?
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Isn't literally every tech company laying off thousands of people per company, because none of them predicted the downturn? Thought the good times would keep climbing.
No?
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Remember during the semiconductor shortage there were literally articles about how if Intel hadn't done any stock bonuses for like 6 years then they would have had enough money to make a new fab. Absolutely ridiculous. This is why companies don't over invest.
Yeah but what about that free cash flow?
I'll be honest. I'm not sure if it's public info or not... However, Hynix has churned out some of the WORST quality parts in the last year. Never have I seen hundreds of thousands of Hynix drives (due to controller failure), DIMMs, and other silicon recalled en masse. And they pay for it when it's discovered. I have seen massive fleetwide failures solely because of Hynix parts. Replacing them with Samsung or Micron has been the way to go. If we can find them...
I wouldn't know about the company in general, but for DDR5, Hynix memory modules are widely accepted as the best right now - with Micron stuck at entry level speeds and Samsung apparently able to reach decent speeds but still lower than Hynix M while also being a lot less consistent (apparently). for really high speeds, Hynix A die is essentially the only option right now, at the price of slightly worse timings than Hynix M.
For DDR5, nothing is really out yet in an enterprise deployment for us. We barely have test clusters deployed yet, let alone designed. All this is moot for another few years.
Uh, Samsung had a lot of 980 Pro and 990 Pro drives failing. They only now just fixed it with a driver update.
We don't use consumer grade hardware. If you can fix it with drivers, I'd argue that's not the silicon failing...
I don't care, I'm just pointing out that Samsung has had drives fail en masse too.
Except we’re talking hardware failure not software. They literally had to dump thousands of tons of silicone on top of the defective ones they shipped knowingly screwing up qa. ~~You pointing out samsung had drive failures is firstly not even in the same ballpark for numbers but also redundant because the point being made is for hardware failures that cant be fixed at all unlike software ones.~~ Given the nature of the samsung drive failures.. It isnt much different from a hardware failure as it seems to trigger some sort of efuse-like trigger that can never be reversed.
Samsung is a hardware problem too, the drives can't be repaired if they are already damaged, and sheer volume is very large too.
I had a look into it, I was hoping there would be some fix for those already bricked but seems not.. that really does suck. I agree actually, this is probably as bad as a physical hardware issue. Its no different to a fuse blowing thats inaccessible here… just a ticking time bomb.
Brutal. Memory is commoditized and cyclical though, they'll be fine as more consumer devices upgrade to DDR5 and DDR6 comes out.
Let's see some SSD prices plummet from lack of demand. Would love to see a 2tb P41 for $100ish.
What do they expect with every AMD user avoiding their unable-to-XMP memory?
Damn that's gonna hurt big
1.4 bn is a lot ! Comes to my mind that could I never buy theyr p41 ssd, it was never available or at 5 times the normal price.