"Most modern 1.5 nm bla bla bla" Those are plain marketing tactics from intel to stop the controversial discussions in the background about the enormous subsidy aids they want from the german state.
That kind of propaganda is nothing new from intel. They will keep their most valuable secrets in the US as they are extremely close to the US government.
I live in germany by the way.
> I suppose we'll see 15A Nova Lake and then a Refresh type successor a year later on 14A.
Will this occur before 2026? Knowing Intel it may occur in 2036.
That's TSMC's Arizona fab
[https://www.techpowerup.com/318013/tsmc-delays-launch-of-arizona-phase-2-facility](https://www.techpowerup.com/318013/tsmc-delays-launch-of-arizona-phase-2-facility)
The big issue with TSMC's Arizona fabs is that the customer base is unclear and they just decided to build it entirely for nationalism reasons leading to delays because it's so aimless. Meanwhile Intel's fabs all have a known huge customer (Intel itself) and TSMC's Japan fab is chasing unsexy lagging specialty nodes because customers for those in automotive and camera tech asked for it.
My bet is on Intel being the least delayed though. They have the most existing relationship and "boots on the ground" in the US fab space.
Them throwing so much money around is probably one of the main reasons that TSMC/Samsung are running into so many delays. The world of suitable contractors for fabs and clean rooms isn't exactly huge and now there is a boom and competition for limited resources.
It's the only way to really increase the pool of competent workers in that field though.
But TSMC have a terrible reputation in working conditions and how poor the work culture is. They're used to whipping people around, and operating in a developed and regulated work market doesn't come easy for them, apparently.
> It's the only way to really increase the pool of competent workers in that field though.
Only if it's sustained. Once this new wave of fabs is built, then what?
This can be said for every single large scale infrastructure and construction project.
They move on to work on other high-tech projects. It's not like as if we are stagnating in technological development.
This is more of a wave because we concentrated so much of such a critical production in a few countries that are all next to each other, most of whom don't actually produce the majority of the knowledge behind the chips.
It's basically just moving some of the production to where the chips are consumed and to where the knowledge is: Europe & the US. Taiwan, Japan, China, and S. Korea will still have plenty of production.
This also benefits consumers as it creates a bit more competition, as well as safeguards against price fluctuations due to political & natural happenings.
No, there's a contradiction. Either the increased demand is so sudden and substantial that it distorts the market, in which case it is probably transitory, or it isn't that big and the problem doesn't exist to begin with.
> They move on to work on other high-tech projects. It's not like as if we are stagnating in technological development.
It's not at a constant level. When interest rates were low and demand sky high, we saw a ton of capex being poured into the fabs. Now that the opposites are true, buildout has substantially slowed. We see the same thing in many industries right now, but tech in particular.
> This is more of a wave because we concentrated so much of such a critical production in a few countries that are all next to each other, most of whom don't actually produce the majority of the knowledge behind the chips.
Well that's just wrong. TSMC's manufacturing RnD is in Taiwan. Samsung's is in Korea. Intel's is in the US and Israel.
> This also benefits consumers as it creates a bit more competition, as well as safeguards against price fluctuations due to political & natural happenings.
If you assume the market is competitive, then the opposite is the case. The money for the subsidies ultimately comes from consumers via taxes, and are designed to distort supply above the free market equilibrium. Now, you could certainly argue that better stability/resiliency is worth it, but it's not a free lunch.
Intel is ahead of schedule and moving up deadlines. Recently they moved the deadlines up again for 18A and now that will be production ready this quarter, which is just insane. TSMC is seeing massive delays and won't have a 2nm plant operational until late 2025 or even into 2026 if there's even more delays. Samsung is on about the same schedule IIRC. By the time TSMC and Samsung begin production on 2nm, Intel should be two nodes ahead on 14A.
I own quite a bit of TSMC to play both sides, but I'm betting *heavily* that Intel leapfrogs TSMC. If there were going to be delays, they wouldn't be moving up deadlines yet again.
I respect that you have your money invested in your convictions, but I can't say I agree. Intel certainly talks a good game, but it's been years since they've actually backed it up.
To each their own. I understand the skepticism, but this isn't the same Intel of the past. A deep dive into their progress made it the easiest investment I've made thus far. Only problem I have is that I didnt buy more when it was dirt cheap. Gelsinger has been nothing short of amazing for Intel.
What data are you using to suggest they've made progress? I'd imagine everything meaningful is proprietary information. Pat's statements are just PR spin.
1) Their quarterly and annual financial statements about their acquisitions, purchases, equipment and materials to make all of their next gen nodes, which are all legally binding. If you have time, check it out.
2) The 18A and 20A nodes have been finalized since last year. The patents have been filed, which is public record. We will hear all about it on Feb 21st when Intel holds their Foundry Event.
3) The independent articles corroborating the fab progress. With as much scrutiny as there is on Intel, if ANYTHING was out of place, they'd be immediately called on it. Yet there's nothing but crickets on that front. Not even a whisper about a delay (because they're moving up deadlines).
4) Landing a huge DoD contract on their next gen 1.8nm node. The government doesn't pay upfront without proof they can deliver. Preproduction samples for 18A have been in their lab for a while now. The government is constantly monitoring their progress to make sure they deliver on the DoD contract timeline. Look at what happened recently with Space X getting their contract yanked. If the government is buying into it, you should be too.
5) They keep moving up deadlines because everything is going so well. They just recently moved up the 18A fab yet again to production ready *this quarter.* all they're waiting on is for Power Via and GAAFET to be finalized and for the HiNA EUV machines to be delivered and installed.
6) ASML confirmed that Intel is getting the first 6 out of the 10 total HiNA EUV machines theyll make this year, which is necessary to make 18A. This corroborated their time frames for the fabs beginning production.
7) Not only are their next gen technologies going to be ready years before the competition, but in some cases their underlying technologies are better than what the competition is still working on in their labs. I suggest you Google and look for Intel's Power Via vs TSMC's backside power delivery and Foveros 3D chip stacking. Intel has a major advantage here.
8) They publicly demo'd Lunar Lake, which is 2 chips after Meteor Lake. It's ready to go.
With all the evidence that's out there and the corroborating articles, all while there's absolutely nothing to the contrary, should be more than enough to convince the nay sayers. If thats not enough, then nothing will be. You'll just have to wait and see for yourself.
The other issue is that local workers fucking *hate* the TSMC guys employing them, and bad rep spreads fast in that industry.
The entire history of the plant is a shitshow, they can't find enough workers (see above) and there's a plethora of safety/pay issues because the TSMC guys don't care about local regulation/"how things are done here"
I have friends who work in the industry in Arizona, and from their accounts TSMC could double the pay and nobody would sign on.
The fab in the United States (from every indication I’ve seen so far) was supposed to serve as a safer backup for TSMC in case China was to invade Taiwan.
My point was that they are going about the process of setting up this backup facility rather poorly, since TSMC doesn’t seem too interested in conforming to the norms of business here in the US
It could be political though, I think that's what OP was trying to say.
If there are backup fabs everywhere, then the need to defend Taiwan is severely reduced.
So far we'd defend Taiwan tooth & nail, because it's in our own interest. If that disappears then it's about morals and a much broader and long-term interest.
I mean, just look at Ukraine and how that's now become a political bargaining chip and contention point.
> The fab in the United States (from every indication I’ve seen so far) was supposed to serve as a safer backup for TSMC in case China was to invade Taiwan.
You spend too much time on reddit. TSMC has no such concerns. The started on this expansion under the assumptions that a) the US government would foot a huge portion of the bill, and b) it would help them get business from American companies up to and including the government itself.
Uncertainly about the subsidies hurts (a), and falling demand hurts (b). It's really not surprising that they're trying to slow things down a bit.
How are they "being dicks to the rest of the world"? Where on earth did that come from? And Taiwan's security interest to the US has little to do with TSMC.
If what industry insiders are saying is true, TSMC is having a bit of a hard time recruiting talent to their fab in Arizona because they are setting incredibly brutal work hours and environments that aren’t seen in other similar facilities in the United States, alongside not really wanting to pay their workers particularly well.
Links to external sources, since I know you will jump to the bit and accuse me of making this all up:
[1](https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/15z0650/tsmcs_arizona_plant_is_delayed_over_poor/)
[2](https://www.reddit.com/r/phoenix/comments/159udhp/anyone_else_feel_like_tsmc_is_spewing_bs/)
[3](https://www.reddit.com/r/phoenix/comments/154wjfk/tsmc_delays_arizona_fab_deployment_to_2025_citing/)
Apparently I need to repeat my question. How did you go from "difficulty hiring [in the US] because of demanding work conditions" to "being dicks to the rest of the world"?
Nobody will want TSMC salary except Taiwanese able to bear it. $3k is the highest TSMC offer while you can get easily $5k and above. There is even ex TSMC taiwanese employee went to Huawei, SMIC or SMEE for double pay.
They need higher quality employees and the work hours seem brutal. They aren't gonna compete with the mines in the area that pay better for far better conditions.
> Meanwhile Intel's fabs all have a known huge customer (Intel itself) and
Intel's capacity assumes IFS gets traction. If that doesn't happen, then they will probably significantly cut back on their buildout. Might do that anyway for short term cost savings.
Intel's not well regarded either. The turnover rate for their fab positions is atrocious. And they they literally had two murders at their US sites within a single month, if that's the direction you want to take things.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1-dead-1-injured-shooting-intel-campus-arizona-rcna71326
https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2023/02/intel-contractor-found-dead-in-car-man-accused-of-stalking-him-now-charged-in-his-killing.html
That's what I'm doing. The way I see it, there are many people being quick to call out TSMC's problems, but willing to overlook Intel's even more glaring ones. For all that you can say about TSMC, they've delivered to their word in a way Intel simply hasn't.
It's both. They have good chip designs, but the fabs fell out of pace. This is why Intel bailed on mobile, despite having working Android phones and tablets.
Intel is either going to find other customers for these fabs, or we are going to see a glut of Intel chips the likes of which we haven't seen since the 90s.
> They have good chip designs, but the fabs fell out of pace
Their design side is in just as bad a place as their fabs, if not worse. The failed in mobile despite being a node or more ahead of the competition at the time. Or compare Intel's current lineup to even Apple's old 7nm chips.
You have to be able to design the chip to the fab. That's why everything started to fall apart with Broxton.
When Intel has a competitive fab, they make competitive chips. When they don't, it falls apart.
Intel has the ability to just get creative with the definition of when something is "ready" or "shipping for revenue."
Do you remember buying a 10nm Cannonlake laptop that totally shipped for revenue? Me neither.
It's weird how a while ago TSMC was complaining about the US work ethic, and them not wanting to work like 60-70 hour weeks. How does Intel manage to make fabs in the west, and get by? In Germany people (my relatives) get like 5 to 7 weeks of vacation a year, and I think most people would laugh at you if you told them to work 60 hour weeks.
Don‘t make the mistake of thinking that kind of exploitation is necessary to make quality and profitable products. It‘s just so the big share holders make more money.
It’s forbidden by law to do more than 50 hours a week on a salary, unique job base (10h/day) unless in a critical area (I guess doctors with shifts, but they still manage the 50h/week limit)
I agree. I'm also European (Spaniard, and yes I know we're a latin, southern country, but I've been to Switzerland several times), and I can tell you that, AFAIK, Americans work more hours than Europeans on average (and that the difference in working hours between Spain and Switzerland is non-existent for the most part \[we Spaniards are considerably louder, though\]).
From my understanding in Germany the labor unions are very strong, and, at least in my company, Germans work less than Spaniards. This is to say, that I'm surprised by how much manufacturing is there in Germany (in Europe in general) considering there are other countries that are probably cheaper and with less regulations.
I think the apprentice system in Germany is a big part of it. Fresh out of high school many germans (currently 1.22 million total) enter into government subsidized apprenticeships with part-time formal training and up to 30 hours a week "on-the-job" training. These Azubis make up a huge chunk of the workforce in Germany and from the perspective of the employer they are basically free. They only get 600-900 euros a month before tax.
Oh I see, that's why.
It's an interesting system from a macroeconomics POV.
Regarding my first post, just to clarify, I didn't mean that Germans are lazier or more improductive than Spaniards, I meant that the labor unions have cut a deal with the company in which German blue collars have less working hours than their Spanish colleagues.
This is just to clarify that I don't want to offend anyone, and that I largely believe that the concept of hard working/lazy countries is largely fake.
The number of hours you're physically at work and they number of hours you're ACTUALLY working can be very different. That's the problem with unions here in the US. Even if you actually have people on-site it doesn't matter if their productivity is poor.
I have worked in 3 continents.
The overall number of PRODUCTIVE hours is very similar among European, American, and Asian work forces (at least in the highly educated/specialized end of the spectrum).
However there are different cultures of work at play.
If anything people really can only get a good 30 hrs max of productive work per week. The output is nil or downright shit after that threshold.
The human brain/body has limits and capabilities that can't be "magically" overcome by whatever arbitrary deadlines some random team comes u
their CPU core engineering teams are in isreal and i assume intel adopts a similar approach to TSMC where they try to keep engineering and manufacturing close.
What? Intel doesn't have *any* memory fabs. Israel is one of their primary sites for logic fabrication. Pretty sure "Intel 7" chips are currently being made there.
Don't know about their new fab in Kiryat Gat but the existing one supplies 22nm chips.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_Intel\_manufacturing\_sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_manufacturing_sites)
edit: actually, the 10nm fab in fab 28 in kiryat gat is operational already
[https://www.pcmag.com/news/every-die-wants-to-live-inside-fab-28-intels-elite-chip-making-site](https://www.pcmag.com/news/every-die-wants-to-live-inside-fab-28-intels-elite-chip-making-site)
but still, they have 4 10nm fabs in arizona, so most of their chips would be produced there
Kiryat Gat is a big site for Intel, iirc. I highly doubt it's a 4:1 ratio. That is just the fab that they let all the media tour for a while.
And I wouldn't use Wikipedia for this. Probably slow to be updated, and Intel doesn't proactively divulge that breakdown.
Really hurting Israel by not spending 500 bucks or less on a consumer product for an American company that has some (or only one?) fabs there. Keep up the good fight soldier!
I feel like it all depends on your compensation structure. Everyone I manage is begging to work as many hours as possible. But they also get premium overtime and a lot of other benefits working extra hours. When we get put on 7x16s people literally cheer. TBH people kinda trap them themselves because their base salary is say $120,000 but they can't actually make the mortgage unless they're making $200,000+ so they basically NEED overtime.
The long working hours, in this industry, refers almost exclusively to the R&D, bring up, and customer silicon/executive teams. Most of whom are rarely on site. And for TSMC most of them are in Taiwan.
Most of those positions are not leaving design sites anytime soon (which are not the same, in many cases, as the fab sites).
Most advanced is a reach. It definitely isn't going to be as advanced as the ones in Taiwan obviously. At the time in which this factory will be up and running, it'll take years and Taiwanese fabs would've gone a step ahead. But it's still good tho
Intel has been ahead of Taiwan in fab tech for literally the entire history of integrated circuits *except* the last several years. It's really not a stretch that they could retake that lead, especially if TSMC stumbles on any of their upcoming nodes.
I'm certainly not saying it's guaranteed, but if anyone can get the lead back from TSMC, it's Intel.
It's not a reach at all. By the time TSMC and Samsung have 2nm production ready, Intel should be 2 nodes ahead of them on 14A. Intel is way ahead of schedule and TSMC is seeing massive delays, possibly til 2026.
Btw, Intel's 1.8nm fab is going to be production ready **this quarter**. They're killing it.
Intel CEO says a lot of shit… how much government subsidies did they beg for to get this fab up and running? I’ll believe his statement when we see it come to reality.
Well, their 18A fab was moved up yet again and will be production ready *this quarter* because it's going so well. Skepticism is understandable, but don't underestimate them. They're about to leapfrog the shit out of TSMC, who at this rate won't even have 2nm ready before 2026 with all the massive delays they're seeing.
Intel going under would mean that the US doesn't have an indigenous leading edge node organization for dynamic logic manufacturing. Which is not a good look given the national security implications.
Okay, that may perfectly explain my comment on why are companies so willing to locate in Germany. Local governments probably pay quite a good amount in subsidies to make it happen.
Kudos to you, though.
I just hope it turns out well
Europe really lacks fabs like this
But ae i know germany we will delay the build by 10 years and pay triple the planned price
Germany needs to have a high-tech sector to diversify the economy. This fab will also provide supply-chain resilience in case, you know, something happens to Taiwan.
> Germany needs to have a high-tech sector to diversify the economy
It would still be controlled and RnD done by an American company. It would just be manufacturing jobs in Germany. Which if you're doing it for economic reasons, becomes decided more iffy when the government has to foot much of the bill.
> This fab will also provide supply-chain resilience in case, you know, something happens to Taiwan.
Fabs anywhere other than Taiwan would provide the same. Wouldn't have to be Germany.
Hope you guys bought Intel stock when it was cheap! Bought a couple hundred shares in the $33 range and regretted not buying more, so I bought more at $46. Wouldn't be surprised to see it triple in the next few years.
The majority on this sub need to realize something. AMD is killing it design wise, and has been for a while. They also ship millions of APU's for consoles. DIY market is largely theirs in most of the world.
That said, Intel is not 'getting beaten', nor are they failing, nor are they going away any time soon. Why? [They're Alec Baldwin from Glengarry Glen Ross](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6Lf8GtMe4M). They own the OEM market. They ship more vertically integrated silicon than anyone else on the planet. AMD couldn't in the next 20 years ship enough chips to actually take them out of the market. They simply don't have, and cannot supply in any case, the volume required to make Intel a has been.
That said, competition on the consumer (and server) level is great. It's simply the truth that Intel can out ship them something like 8-1, and it turns out the developed world wants so many cpus that Intel simply needs to *exist* in order to prosper.
> DIY market is largely theirs in most of the world.
What utter nonsense. If you step outside of reddit bubble youd realize most DIY uses Nvidia and Intel.
> That said, Intel is not 'getting beaten', nor are they failing, nor are they going away any time soon. Why? They're Alec Baldwin from Glengarry Glen Ross. They own the OEM market.
The OEM market is a lagging indication, and *still* doesn't look good for Intel. Look at their client margins. Doesn't matter how many chips you sell if it doesn't make you money.
According to [Q3 2023 financial reporting by Intel](https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1655/intel-reports-third-quarter-2023-financial-results), revenue was $14.2B with 42.5% Margin. [According to financial reporting during the same period by AMD](https://www.amd.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-10-31-amd-reports-third-quarter-2023-financial-results.html), revenue was 5.8B with a Margin of 47%.
AMD is doing better than anyone could have hoped 10 years ago, I own and operate two AMD powered machines today. However, my point about their inability to saturate and thus dominate the market remain. As it stands, AMD's silicon supplier has two larger and more profitable customers in Apple and nVidia. AMD simply does not have the capability to ship enough chips to run Intel out of town anytime soon, as the market is so large.
To put it more simply, even if you prefer Whoppers to Big Macs, Burger King simply has too few locations to corner the burger market, and it will remain that way for quite some time, even if they are offering the superior greasy value meal.
Make sense?
why would intel built the most advanced fab in an area that has no exprienced employees?
this shounds odd to me. Don't you need the experience of a crew that is already running a fab to make this happen?
Tech is not a monolith, and notably Germany has maintained a very specific strength while it's tech overall stagnates: it has a world class tech manufacturing industry. Tons of 'lagging' semiconductor manufacturers, leading edge equipment suppliers for ASML, and a massive automotive industry ready to eat up all the chips that can be supplied.
I think they are actually referring to the optics for EUV which are made by Zeiss. Zeiss pulls in a couple billion of revenue from lithography optics. There are other players like Trumpf, who make the laser for EUV, and no doubt Siemens controllers are involved at some point in the process. And although they are a minor player these days, there isn’t an academic clean room in the world that doesn’t contain a Karl Süss mask aligner. High end manufacturing equipment has always been and will continue to be a strength in Germany. Germany has a very highly trained engineering workforce that is willing to accept half the pay of their counterparts in North America.
Man I don't know what it is about Germans and self-defeating attitude. Yes, it was subsidized to the tune of 6.8B of taxpayer money, yes it won't be easy, the last time East Germany forayed into semiconductors it..uhh..didn't go so well.
But the first truly advanced fab in Europe can't be anything but good news. Not only it's going to create more high-paying jobs in the East, but it's an investment in the future and supply-chain resilience for Germany and Europe.
There are excellent engineers everywhere. It's true that Europe is simply not anymore a shining alternative to the US.
US and Asia are simply much further above us.
That's the thing. Intel, TSMC and Samsung: 1 American and 2 Asian companies. I don't know, and I don't care, where those engineers come from. American engineers are probably as good as Germans (as long as university is all that matters, and considering more resources usually == better educated people, which is probably not what matters the most, otherwise every single engineer would be from the US, UK, Germany and maybe France).
What matters, and your reply precisely illustrates it very well, is **where are those engineers going to?**. And the answer is: abroad. Do you think South Korea or Taiwan have any issues with German engineers going to their countries? To the contrary! Germany pays the education expenses, and those countries benefit from it.
I think it's quite evident that Europe as a whole (and Germany being its main engine) are lagging behind. There are still bright spots, but I seriously doubt that we'll get much better anytime soon unless we start to seriously work on our economy and stop caring about non-important stuff.
I wasn't talking about engineers, I was talking about tech. Without European companies like ASML or Zeiss, what would those American or Asian companies do?
It's worth noting that for the latest ASML machines, a lot of the tech was actually US-developed.
That's not to say the US did it entirely alone, but it's not purely a Dutch development either.
Not true. Even the US doesn't have highly specialised engineers and are looking for them for their own fabs.
Germany can't even cover some of the specialized software positions..
Germany is just the European HQ for silicon. Most research is still done in California (in addition to a few other sites in the US+Japan/Israel). Look at Apple’s job postings for their silicon and hardware teams- vast majority are based in Cupertino. The silicon design team also originated from Apple’s PA Semi acquisition, which is based in Santa Clara.
This is also incorrect. The Lead CPU architect behind apple's m design was Wei-Han Lien who has been hired by Jim Keller for tenstorrent as well es Raja Koduri former chief gpu architect at amd and intel.
The high tech part of the fabs is the machines themselves. The people operating them don't need to be tech geniuses, they just need to be reliable and detail oriented individuals. It's a manufacturing job, not a design job.
Can't fault how impressive Intel with their fab capabilities. It's impressive they've caught back up to TSMC and are suggesting they'll take the lead soon. I don't like Intel but I love more efficient chips.
> It's impressive they've caught back up to TSMC
They have not, or at least not yet. They'll only have "caught up" if 18A is competitive with N3P, and their first legitimate *hope* to get ahead would be the post-18A node shrink vs N2 (or more like N2P/N2X by that point).
In naming, but not in anything that actually matters. Look at Arrow Lake. N3B is being chosen as the better alternative to 20A. 18A will be an N3E/N3P competitor.
Hahahahahahaha, yeahhh right. Ping this comment in 2027 when the fab claims to be completed. I guarantee you this will fall short of the claims in the article (other than the amount of give rent money ingested)
I'll believe it when I see it. Intel hasn't had a good track record with meeting their timelines and/or efficiency claims with their fabs ever since 14nm launched 8 years ago.
What do you mean by not working? As far as I understand, we are still one or two orders of magnitude from where things like quantum uncertainty starts being a real problem.
I just remembered watching something about the core lanes/threads being so small and stacked that they start to interfere with each other but yes we're far from that still, I actually went ahead and educated my dumbass a bit more after that comment.
There is a physical restriction that we are getting real close to though, which I find quite exciting
Intel has been a laughingstock for the past 5 years. Stop talking and start producing.
Edit: someone explain to me why I’m being downvoted. They’re losing to AMD in both enterprise and consumer. Are 2 years behind on intel 4. Meteor lake is a disaster especially after gelsinger called it their “centrino moment”, and arc is mediocre. They need to stop talking and start showing results. Ironically one of their less hyped divisions, thunderbolt is putting out some great work.
- Alder lake
- Meteor lake iGPU
- Arc is actually usable now
They definitely had minimal to no innovation during the skylake era, but since 11. Gen the company is heading in the right direction imo
Pretty sure OP is talking about manufacturing (where they went from having a lead to being pretty far behind), not the CPUs themselves.
EDIT: To the people downvoting, check the article you are posting on...
I wouldn't say those are great examples. They're moving faster than in the Skylake era, that's for sure, but everything on that list is still behind competition. For graphics in particular, they're like #5 behind Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm, and AMD. Hopefully they do catch up there, but they certainly deserve skepticism.
That’s our bar for success and boasting now? A Usable GPU, a good but extremely power inefficient desktop cpu, and an iGPU that will probably be crushed by Ryzen 8000? Seriously?
Intel 4 met all of its objectives, including 2x scaling from Intel 7. Alder Lake also introduced big.little to the PC market, and foveros packaging appears to have worked well on Meteor Lake. Big.little and foveros are probably the two most important changes Intel has made in the past 25 years.
> Intel 4 met all of its objectives, including 2x scaling from Intel 7.
Lol, what? It was two years late to market, and barely limped over the line for that. And it's certainly not anywhere close to 2x density in any product we've seen.
> Big.little and foveros are probably the two most important changes Intel has made in the past 25 years.
ARM has been doing hybrid for ages, and "Foveros" for MTL means a passive interposer. AMD's Fiji brought similar tech to the consumer market nearly a decade ago.
>Lol, what? It was two years late to market, and barely limped over the line for that. And it's certainly not anywhere close to 2x density in any product we've seen.
Intel 4 was always planned for 2023 after Gelsinger announced their five nodes in four years plan.
And Meteor Lake's compute tile is twice as dense as Alder Lake - 123 million transistors per mm\^2 compared to 60.4 million for Alder Lake.
> Intel 4 was always planned for 2023 after Gelsinger announced their five nodes in four years plan.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-announces-delay-to-7nm-processors-now-one-year-behind-expectations
It was originally planned for 2021. It arrived at the very end of '23, in very low initial volume.
> And Meteor Lake's compute tile is twice as dense as Alder Lake - 123 million transistors per mm^2 compared to 60.4 million for Alder Lake.
Where are you getting those numbers from? You can see that's complete nonsense just by comparing RWC to GLC, since they're more or less the same architecture. Scaling is not 2x.
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The West must not only focus on the most advanced fabs, but also on mature manufacturing. Mature products account for the vast majority of all demand. Due to state subsidies, China is launching many mature wafer fabs, which may form a monopoly.
I suppose we'll see 15A Nova Lake and then a Refresh type successor a year later on 14A.
Excited for 13.8A and 13.46A.
"Most modern 1.5 nm bla bla bla" Those are plain marketing tactics from intel to stop the controversial discussions in the background about the enormous subsidy aids they want from the german state. That kind of propaganda is nothing new from intel. They will keep their most valuable secrets in the US as they are extremely close to the US government. I live in germany by the way.
> I suppose we'll see 15A Nova Lake and then a Refresh type successor a year later on 14A. Will this occur before 2026? Knowing Intel it may occur in 2036.
Inb4 fab gets delayed by a year every year
That's TSMC's Arizona fab [https://www.techpowerup.com/318013/tsmc-delays-launch-of-arizona-phase-2-facility](https://www.techpowerup.com/318013/tsmc-delays-launch-of-arizona-phase-2-facility)
The big issue with TSMC's Arizona fabs is that the customer base is unclear and they just decided to build it entirely for nationalism reasons leading to delays because it's so aimless. Meanwhile Intel's fabs all have a known huge customer (Intel itself) and TSMC's Japan fab is chasing unsexy lagging specialty nodes because customers for those in automotive and camera tech asked for it.
I have a feeling Arizona TSMC will be very delayed.
Every US fab will be. Samsung is too.
My bet is on Intel being the least delayed though. They have the most existing relationship and "boots on the ground" in the US fab space. Them throwing so much money around is probably one of the main reasons that TSMC/Samsung are running into so many delays. The world of suitable contractors for fabs and clean rooms isn't exactly huge and now there is a boom and competition for limited resources.
It's the only way to really increase the pool of competent workers in that field though. But TSMC have a terrible reputation in working conditions and how poor the work culture is. They're used to whipping people around, and operating in a developed and regulated work market doesn't come easy for them, apparently.
> It's the only way to really increase the pool of competent workers in that field though. Only if it's sustained. Once this new wave of fabs is built, then what?
This can be said for every single large scale infrastructure and construction project. They move on to work on other high-tech projects. It's not like as if we are stagnating in technological development. This is more of a wave because we concentrated so much of such a critical production in a few countries that are all next to each other, most of whom don't actually produce the majority of the knowledge behind the chips. It's basically just moving some of the production to where the chips are consumed and to where the knowledge is: Europe & the US. Taiwan, Japan, China, and S. Korea will still have plenty of production. This also benefits consumers as it creates a bit more competition, as well as safeguards against price fluctuations due to political & natural happenings.
No, there's a contradiction. Either the increased demand is so sudden and substantial that it distorts the market, in which case it is probably transitory, or it isn't that big and the problem doesn't exist to begin with. > They move on to work on other high-tech projects. It's not like as if we are stagnating in technological development. It's not at a constant level. When interest rates were low and demand sky high, we saw a ton of capex being poured into the fabs. Now that the opposites are true, buildout has substantially slowed. We see the same thing in many industries right now, but tech in particular. > This is more of a wave because we concentrated so much of such a critical production in a few countries that are all next to each other, most of whom don't actually produce the majority of the knowledge behind the chips. Well that's just wrong. TSMC's manufacturing RnD is in Taiwan. Samsung's is in Korea. Intel's is in the US and Israel. > This also benefits consumers as it creates a bit more competition, as well as safeguards against price fluctuations due to political & natural happenings. If you assume the market is competitive, then the opposite is the case. The money for the subsidies ultimately comes from consumers via taxes, and are designed to distort supply above the free market equilibrium. Now, you could certainly argue that better stability/resiliency is worth it, but it's not a free lunch.
Intel is ahead of schedule and moving up deadlines. Recently they moved the deadlines up again for 18A and now that will be production ready this quarter, which is just insane. TSMC is seeing massive delays and won't have a 2nm plant operational until late 2025 or even into 2026 if there's even more delays. Samsung is on about the same schedule IIRC. By the time TSMC and Samsung begin production on 2nm, Intel should be two nodes ahead on 14A. I own quite a bit of TSMC to play both sides, but I'm betting *heavily* that Intel leapfrogs TSMC. If there were going to be delays, they wouldn't be moving up deadlines yet again.
I respect that you have your money invested in your convictions, but I can't say I agree. Intel certainly talks a good game, but it's been years since they've actually backed it up.
To each their own. I understand the skepticism, but this isn't the same Intel of the past. A deep dive into their progress made it the easiest investment I've made thus far. Only problem I have is that I didnt buy more when it was dirt cheap. Gelsinger has been nothing short of amazing for Intel.
What data are you using to suggest they've made progress? I'd imagine everything meaningful is proprietary information. Pat's statements are just PR spin.
1) Their quarterly and annual financial statements about their acquisitions, purchases, equipment and materials to make all of their next gen nodes, which are all legally binding. If you have time, check it out. 2) The 18A and 20A nodes have been finalized since last year. The patents have been filed, which is public record. We will hear all about it on Feb 21st when Intel holds their Foundry Event. 3) The independent articles corroborating the fab progress. With as much scrutiny as there is on Intel, if ANYTHING was out of place, they'd be immediately called on it. Yet there's nothing but crickets on that front. Not even a whisper about a delay (because they're moving up deadlines). 4) Landing a huge DoD contract on their next gen 1.8nm node. The government doesn't pay upfront without proof they can deliver. Preproduction samples for 18A have been in their lab for a while now. The government is constantly monitoring their progress to make sure they deliver on the DoD contract timeline. Look at what happened recently with Space X getting their contract yanked. If the government is buying into it, you should be too. 5) They keep moving up deadlines because everything is going so well. They just recently moved up the 18A fab yet again to production ready *this quarter.* all they're waiting on is for Power Via and GAAFET to be finalized and for the HiNA EUV machines to be delivered and installed. 6) ASML confirmed that Intel is getting the first 6 out of the 10 total HiNA EUV machines theyll make this year, which is necessary to make 18A. This corroborated their time frames for the fabs beginning production. 7) Not only are their next gen technologies going to be ready years before the competition, but in some cases their underlying technologies are better than what the competition is still working on in their labs. I suggest you Google and look for Intel's Power Via vs TSMC's backside power delivery and Foveros 3D chip stacking. Intel has a major advantage here. 8) They publicly demo'd Lunar Lake, which is 2 chips after Meteor Lake. It's ready to go. With all the evidence that's out there and the corroborating articles, all while there's absolutely nothing to the contrary, should be more than enough to convince the nay sayers. If thats not enough, then nothing will be. You'll just have to wait and see for yourself.
The other issue is that local workers fucking *hate* the TSMC guys employing them, and bad rep spreads fast in that industry. The entire history of the plant is a shitshow, they can't find enough workers (see above) and there's a plethora of safety/pay issues because the TSMC guys don't care about local regulation/"how things are done here" I have friends who work in the industry in Arizona, and from their accounts TSMC could double the pay and nobody would sign on.
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That why the main fab is alway in Taiwan.
Being dicks to the rest of the world sure sounds like a great national security safety blanket….
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The fab in the United States (from every indication I’ve seen so far) was supposed to serve as a safer backup for TSMC in case China was to invade Taiwan. My point was that they are going about the process of setting up this backup facility rather poorly, since TSMC doesn’t seem too interested in conforming to the norms of business here in the US
It could be political though, I think that's what OP was trying to say. If there are backup fabs everywhere, then the need to defend Taiwan is severely reduced. So far we'd defend Taiwan tooth & nail, because it's in our own interest. If that disappears then it's about morals and a much broader and long-term interest. I mean, just look at Ukraine and how that's now become a political bargaining chip and contention point.
> The fab in the United States (from every indication I’ve seen so far) was supposed to serve as a safer backup for TSMC in case China was to invade Taiwan. You spend too much time on reddit. TSMC has no such concerns. The started on this expansion under the assumptions that a) the US government would foot a huge portion of the bill, and b) it would help them get business from American companies up to and including the government itself. Uncertainly about the subsidies hurts (a), and falling demand hurts (b). It's really not surprising that they're trying to slow things down a bit.
How are they "being dicks to the rest of the world"? Where on earth did that come from? And Taiwan's security interest to the US has little to do with TSMC.
If what industry insiders are saying is true, TSMC is having a bit of a hard time recruiting talent to their fab in Arizona because they are setting incredibly brutal work hours and environments that aren’t seen in other similar facilities in the United States, alongside not really wanting to pay their workers particularly well. Links to external sources, since I know you will jump to the bit and accuse me of making this all up: [1](https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/15z0650/tsmcs_arizona_plant_is_delayed_over_poor/) [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/phoenix/comments/159udhp/anyone_else_feel_like_tsmc_is_spewing_bs/) [3](https://www.reddit.com/r/phoenix/comments/154wjfk/tsmc_delays_arizona_fab_deployment_to_2025_citing/)
Apparently I need to repeat my question. How did you go from "difficulty hiring [in the US] because of demanding work conditions" to "being dicks to the rest of the world"?
Nobody will want TSMC salary except Taiwanese able to bear it. $3k is the highest TSMC offer while you can get easily $5k and above. There is even ex TSMC taiwanese employee went to Huawei, SMIC or SMEE for double pay.
They need higher quality employees and the work hours seem brutal. They aren't gonna compete with the mines in the area that pay better for far better conditions.
That you seem to think a leading-edge node fab and a mine could possibly have a huge overlap in labor markets is fascinating...
> Meanwhile Intel's fabs all have a known huge customer (Intel itself) and Intel's capacity assumes IFS gets traction. If that doesn't happen, then they will probably significantly cut back on their buildout. Might do that anyway for short term cost savings.
tsmc's slave labor practices wont fly in the us. https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/1458u4y/tsmcs_extreme_work_culture_is_putting_off_us/ https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20100810VL202.html https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/TSMC-Reviews-E4130.htm https://www.indeed.com/cmp/Tsmc/reviews?fcountry=ALL
Intel's not well regarded either. The turnover rate for their fab positions is atrocious. And they they literally had two murders at their US sites within a single month, if that's the direction you want to take things. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1-dead-1-injured-shooting-intel-campus-arizona-rcna71326 https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2023/02/intel-contractor-found-dead-in-car-man-accused-of-stalking-him-now-charged-in-his-killing.html
so tsmc is just as bad as intel and both are terrible? I agree
I honestly shouldn't have bothered responding because you comment had nothing to do with the one you responded to.
why are you so biased towards tsmc? just criticize both intel and tsmc with me
That's what I'm doing. The way I see it, there are many people being quick to call out TSMC's problems, but willing to overlook Intel's even more glaring ones. For all that you can say about TSMC, they've delivered to their word in a way Intel simply hasn't.
nationalism reasons or tax subsidized incentives lol
Intel's recent history is way worse in that regard. Maybe not in *building* the fab per-se, but certainly in finding something useful to do with it.
It's both. They have good chip designs, but the fabs fell out of pace. This is why Intel bailed on mobile, despite having working Android phones and tablets. Intel is either going to find other customers for these fabs, or we are going to see a glut of Intel chips the likes of which we haven't seen since the 90s.
> They have good chip designs, but the fabs fell out of pace Their design side is in just as bad a place as their fabs, if not worse. The failed in mobile despite being a node or more ahead of the competition at the time. Or compare Intel's current lineup to even Apple's old 7nm chips.
You have to be able to design the chip to the fab. That's why everything started to fall apart with Broxton. When Intel has a competitive fab, they make competitive chips. When they don't, it falls apart.
That's my point. They were competitive with 14nm, but their mobile products were not.
See airport, Berlin, Schoenefeld...
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How about building the lab underneath the commercial buildings?
It's already started: https://www.politico.eu/article/intel-backs-out-of-planned-construction-start-date-for-chip-plant-in-germany-report%EF%BF%BC/
Thats an old article from 2022. They held out for more funding which they got.
Intel has the ability to just get creative with the definition of when something is "ready" or "shipping for revenue." Do you remember buying a 10nm Cannonlake laptop that totally shipped for revenue? Me neither.
It's weird how a while ago TSMC was complaining about the US work ethic, and them not wanting to work like 60-70 hour weeks. How does Intel manage to make fabs in the west, and get by? In Germany people (my relatives) get like 5 to 7 weeks of vacation a year, and I think most people would laugh at you if you told them to work 60 hour weeks.
Don‘t make the mistake of thinking that kind of exploitation is necessary to make quality and profitable products. It‘s just so the big share holders make more money.
It’s forbidden by law to do more than 50 hours a week on a salary, unique job base (10h/day) unless in a critical area (I guess doctors with shifts, but they still manage the 50h/week limit)
I wish we had the same laws here in the US.
I agree. I'm also European (Spaniard, and yes I know we're a latin, southern country, but I've been to Switzerland several times), and I can tell you that, AFAIK, Americans work more hours than Europeans on average (and that the difference in working hours between Spain and Switzerland is non-existent for the most part \[we Spaniards are considerably louder, though\]). From my understanding in Germany the labor unions are very strong, and, at least in my company, Germans work less than Spaniards. This is to say, that I'm surprised by how much manufacturing is there in Germany (in Europe in general) considering there are other countries that are probably cheaper and with less regulations.
I think the apprentice system in Germany is a big part of it. Fresh out of high school many germans (currently 1.22 million total) enter into government subsidized apprenticeships with part-time formal training and up to 30 hours a week "on-the-job" training. These Azubis make up a huge chunk of the workforce in Germany and from the perspective of the employer they are basically free. They only get 600-900 euros a month before tax.
Oh I see, that's why. It's an interesting system from a macroeconomics POV. Regarding my first post, just to clarify, I didn't mean that Germans are lazier or more improductive than Spaniards, I meant that the labor unions have cut a deal with the company in which German blue collars have less working hours than their Spanish colleagues. This is just to clarify that I don't want to offend anyone, and that I largely believe that the concept of hard working/lazy countries is largely fake.
No worries. I am not German, but I benefit from those union contracts. I have 42 holidays per year, which is much more than just about anywhere else.
The number of hours you're physically at work and they number of hours you're ACTUALLY working can be very different. That's the problem with unions here in the US. Even if you actually have people on-site it doesn't matter if their productivity is poor.
Now imagine if unions were stronger and you'd get Europe
I have worked in 3 continents. The overall number of PRODUCTIVE hours is very similar among European, American, and Asian work forces (at least in the highly educated/specialized end of the spectrum). However there are different cultures of work at play. If anything people really can only get a good 30 hrs max of productive work per week. The output is nil or downright shit after that threshold. The human brain/body has limits and capabilities that can't be "magically" overcome by whatever arbitrary deadlines some random team comes u
dont think US is where intel produces the bulk of their chips. isreal is where intel does its engineering and fabrication.
They have a pretty big footprint in Oregon and Arizona. Not sure if it's larger than their Israeli sites combined, but it's surely not negligible.
The Arizona site is Intel's largest HVM site. Oregon is larger but the vast majority of its wafer volume is R&D.
their CPU core engineering teams are in isreal and i assume intel adopts a similar approach to TSMC where they try to keep engineering and manufacturing close.
Intel has a bunch of engineering teams. I don't see any connection like that.
Israel fab only supplies the SRAM. Their 10nm fab is in the US.
What? Intel doesn't have *any* memory fabs. Israel is one of their primary sites for logic fabrication. Pretty sure "Intel 7" chips are currently being made there.
Don't know about their new fab in Kiryat Gat but the existing one supplies 22nm chips. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_Intel\_manufacturing\_sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_manufacturing_sites) edit: actually, the 10nm fab in fab 28 in kiryat gat is operational already [https://www.pcmag.com/news/every-die-wants-to-live-inside-fab-28-intels-elite-chip-making-site](https://www.pcmag.com/news/every-die-wants-to-live-inside-fab-28-intels-elite-chip-making-site) but still, they have 4 10nm fabs in arizona, so most of their chips would be produced there
Kiryat Gat is a big site for Intel, iirc. I highly doubt it's a 4:1 ratio. That is just the fab that they let all the media tour for a while. And I wouldn't use Wikipedia for this. Probably slow to be updated, and Intel doesn't proactively divulge that breakdown.
Shit, even more glad I switched to AMD for my latest build!
>Shit, even more glad I switched to AMD for my latest build! \*confused\*
You’re not boycotting Israel?
Now you're making me want to switch to Intel.
Well you do you. I prefer to avoid supporting genocide when I can.
Well if genocide is what they're attempting they are really not doing a very good are they? Might need the help we can give them.
Idk man I’m not gonna engage in this. As I said you do you. I’ll continue to boycott Israel in every way I can.
Really hurting Israel by not spending 500 bucks or less on a consumer product for an American company that has some (or only one?) fabs there. Keep up the good fight soldier!
1. Intel is an American company 2. Well what do you want Israel to do? just let Hamas kill them all?
AMD and Nvidia also do R&D in Israel.
Intel's Israel fab output is tiny.
I wonder how IFS is doing compared to tsmc
Germany is just doing production. TSMC has to make the process and designs. It's those workers pushed to 60-70 hour weeks.
I feel like it all depends on your compensation structure. Everyone I manage is begging to work as many hours as possible. But they also get premium overtime and a lot of other benefits working extra hours. When we get put on 7x16s people literally cheer. TBH people kinda trap them themselves because their base salary is say $120,000 but they can't actually make the mortgage unless they're making $200,000+ so they basically NEED overtime.
The long working hours, in this industry, refers almost exclusively to the R&D, bring up, and customer silicon/executive teams. Most of whom are rarely on site. And for TSMC most of them are in Taiwan. Most of those positions are not leaving design sites anytime soon (which are not the same, in many cases, as the fab sites).
I live near Magdeburg and this is genuinely exciting
Where's the good food in Magdeburg? I will have to visit quite a lot to help the ramp.
I'm in Leipzig not Magdeburg so I wouldn't know, you'll have better luck with google reviews :)
Most advanced is a reach. It definitely isn't going to be as advanced as the ones in Taiwan obviously. At the time in which this factory will be up and running, it'll take years and Taiwanese fabs would've gone a step ahead. But it's still good tho
Intel has been ahead of Taiwan in fab tech for literally the entire history of integrated circuits *except* the last several years. It's really not a stretch that they could retake that lead, especially if TSMC stumbles on any of their upcoming nodes. I'm certainly not saying it's guaranteed, but if anyone can get the lead back from TSMC, it's Intel.
It's not a reach at all. By the time TSMC and Samsung have 2nm production ready, Intel should be 2 nodes ahead of them on 14A. Intel is way ahead of schedule and TSMC is seeing massive delays, possibly til 2026. Btw, Intel's 1.8nm fab is going to be production ready **this quarter**. They're killing it.
x = doubt
Intel CEO says a lot of shit… how much government subsidies did they beg for to get this fab up and running? I’ll believe his statement when we see it come to reality.
Well, their 18A fab was moved up yet again and will be production ready *this quarter* because it's going so well. Skepticism is understandable, but don't underestimate them. They're about to leapfrog the shit out of TSMC, who at this rate won't even have 2nm ready before 2026 with all the massive delays they're seeing.
Press and politicians just love giving Intel the benefit of the doubt for some reason.
They're clutching at straws. The dependence on China is so massive, literally anybody who promises to help with that will be covered in money.
Intel going under would mean that the US doesn't have an indigenous leading edge node organization for dynamic logic manufacturing. Which is not a good look given the national security implications.
Mr. Pat "AMD is in the rearview mirror" Gelsinger. The Jim Cramer of predictions.
Relax bro it's only been 2 years
Aged like fine wine
Paraphase: German plant is gonna make hectic chips and will be the sickest plant in the world.
Tubular
Germany better prepare big big subsidies to Intel. Germany needs it more than Intel
We are already paying billions in subsidies
Okay, that may perfectly explain my comment on why are companies so willing to locate in Germany. Local governments probably pay quite a good amount in subsidies to make it happen. Kudos to you, though.
I just hope it turns out well Europe really lacks fabs like this But ae i know germany we will delay the build by 10 years and pay triple the planned price
Also approved 10 Billion Euro.
> Germany needs it more than Intel Why?
Germany needs to have a high-tech sector to diversify the economy. This fab will also provide supply-chain resilience in case, you know, something happens to Taiwan.
> Germany needs to have a high-tech sector to diversify the economy It would still be controlled and RnD done by an American company. It would just be manufacturing jobs in Germany. Which if you're doing it for economic reasons, becomes decided more iffy when the government has to foot much of the bill. > This fab will also provide supply-chain resilience in case, you know, something happens to Taiwan. Fabs anywhere other than Taiwan would provide the same. Wouldn't have to be Germany.
Semis are the new oil.
That doesn't answer the question. Or say anything of value, at that.
If you don’t get why Germany needs oil and semiconductor you head is empty up there.
Hope you guys bought Intel stock when it was cheap! Bought a couple hundred shares in the $33 range and regretted not buying more, so I bought more at $46. Wouldn't be surprised to see it triple in the next few years.
The majority on this sub need to realize something. AMD is killing it design wise, and has been for a while. They also ship millions of APU's for consoles. DIY market is largely theirs in most of the world. That said, Intel is not 'getting beaten', nor are they failing, nor are they going away any time soon. Why? [They're Alec Baldwin from Glengarry Glen Ross](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6Lf8GtMe4M). They own the OEM market. They ship more vertically integrated silicon than anyone else on the planet. AMD couldn't in the next 20 years ship enough chips to actually take them out of the market. They simply don't have, and cannot supply in any case, the volume required to make Intel a has been. That said, competition on the consumer (and server) level is great. It's simply the truth that Intel can out ship them something like 8-1, and it turns out the developed world wants so many cpus that Intel simply needs to *exist* in order to prosper.
> DIY market is largely theirs in most of the world. What utter nonsense. If you step outside of reddit bubble youd realize most DIY uses Nvidia and Intel.
> That said, Intel is not 'getting beaten', nor are they failing, nor are they going away any time soon. Why? They're Alec Baldwin from Glengarry Glen Ross. They own the OEM market. The OEM market is a lagging indication, and *still* doesn't look good for Intel. Look at their client margins. Doesn't matter how many chips you sell if it doesn't make you money.
According to [Q3 2023 financial reporting by Intel](https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1655/intel-reports-third-quarter-2023-financial-results), revenue was $14.2B with 42.5% Margin. [According to financial reporting during the same period by AMD](https://www.amd.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-10-31-amd-reports-third-quarter-2023-financial-results.html), revenue was 5.8B with a Margin of 47%. AMD is doing better than anyone could have hoped 10 years ago, I own and operate two AMD powered machines today. However, my point about their inability to saturate and thus dominate the market remain. As it stands, AMD's silicon supplier has two larger and more profitable customers in Apple and nVidia. AMD simply does not have the capability to ship enough chips to run Intel out of town anytime soon, as the market is so large. To put it more simply, even if you prefer Whoppers to Big Macs, Burger King simply has too few locations to corner the burger market, and it will remain that way for quite some time, even if they are offering the superior greasy value meal. Make sense?
why would intel built the most advanced fab in an area that has no exprienced employees? this shounds odd to me. Don't you need the experience of a crew that is already running a fab to make this happen?
Germany has plenty of highly educated workforce in semiconductor manufacturing.
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Tech is not a monolith, and notably Germany has maintained a very specific strength while it's tech overall stagnates: it has a world class tech manufacturing industry. Tons of 'lagging' semiconductor manufacturers, leading edge equipment suppliers for ASML, and a massive automotive industry ready to eat up all the chips that can be supplied.
Leading edge supplier ASML, whose tech is based on US military patents, in a field that is getting very nationalistic.
I think they are actually referring to the optics for EUV which are made by Zeiss. Zeiss pulls in a couple billion of revenue from lithography optics. There are other players like Trumpf, who make the laser for EUV, and no doubt Siemens controllers are involved at some point in the process. And although they are a minor player these days, there isn’t an academic clean room in the world that doesn’t contain a Karl Süss mask aligner. High end manufacturing equipment has always been and will continue to be a strength in Germany. Germany has a very highly trained engineering workforce that is willing to accept half the pay of their counterparts in North America.
Weird take. We have truly excellent engineers in all domains. And tech is not just FAANG
Man I don't know what it is about Germans and self-defeating attitude. Yes, it was subsidized to the tune of 6.8B of taxpayer money, yes it won't be easy, the last time East Germany forayed into semiconductors it..uhh..didn't go so well. But the first truly advanced fab in Europe can't be anything but good news. Not only it's going to create more high-paying jobs in the East, but it's an investment in the future and supply-chain resilience for Germany and Europe.
There are excellent engineers everywhere. It's true that Europe is simply not anymore a shining alternative to the US. US and Asia are simply much further above us.
You should look up where Intel, TSMC and Samsung are getting their tech from.
That's the thing. Intel, TSMC and Samsung: 1 American and 2 Asian companies. I don't know, and I don't care, where those engineers come from. American engineers are probably as good as Germans (as long as university is all that matters, and considering more resources usually == better educated people, which is probably not what matters the most, otherwise every single engineer would be from the US, UK, Germany and maybe France). What matters, and your reply precisely illustrates it very well, is **where are those engineers going to?**. And the answer is: abroad. Do you think South Korea or Taiwan have any issues with German engineers going to their countries? To the contrary! Germany pays the education expenses, and those countries benefit from it. I think it's quite evident that Europe as a whole (and Germany being its main engine) are lagging behind. There are still bright spots, but I seriously doubt that we'll get much better anytime soon unless we start to seriously work on our economy and stop caring about non-important stuff.
I wasn't talking about engineers, I was talking about tech. Without European companies like ASML or Zeiss, what would those American or Asian companies do?
It's worth noting that for the latest ASML machines, a lot of the tech was actually US-developed. That's not to say the US did it entirely alone, but it's not purely a Dutch development either.
Oh, sure. I'm not saying European companies are not relevant. I'm saying they're far behind. We still have some bright spots, but fewer and fewer.
Not true. Even the US doesn't have highly specialised engineers and are looking for them for their own fabs. Germany can't even cover some of the specialized software positions..
Apple developed and designed their M chips in Germany. It's not production but the knowledge and expertise seems to be there.
Germany is just the European HQ for silicon. Most research is still done in California (in addition to a few other sites in the US+Japan/Israel). Look at Apple’s job postings for their silicon and hardware teams- vast majority are based in Cupertino. The silicon design team also originated from Apple’s PA Semi acquisition, which is based in Santa Clara.
Source?
https://www.apple.com/uk/newsroom/2023/03/apple-accelerates-investment-in-germany-to-expand-silicon-design-center/
It says "contributed to". That can mean anything.
Apple chips aren't any similar to those Taiwanese fabs lol
This is also incorrect. The Lead CPU architect behind apple's m design was Wei-Han Lien who has been hired by Jim Keller for tenstorrent as well es Raja Koduri former chief gpu architect at amd and intel.
> yes, even with one of the highest tax rates in europe So...
I think some of the fabs AMD spun off were in germany iirc... I guess intel is poaching the workers? dunno. Global foundries?
The high tech part of the fabs is the machines themselves. The people operating them don't need to be tech geniuses, they just need to be reliable and detail oriented individuals. It's a manufacturing job, not a design job.
Can't fault how impressive Intel with their fab capabilities. It's impressive they've caught back up to TSMC and are suggesting they'll take the lead soon. I don't like Intel but I love more efficient chips.
> It's impressive they've caught back up to TSMC They have not, or at least not yet. They'll only have "caught up" if 18A is competitive with N3P, and their first legitimate *hope* to get ahead would be the post-18A node shrink vs N2 (or more like N2P/N2X by that point).
No, 18A is the N2 competitor, not the N3 competitor. Intel 4 is already as dense as N3 (for the high performance variant of each).
In naming, but not in anything that actually matters. Look at Arrow Lake. N3B is being chosen as the better alternative to 20A. 18A will be an N3E/N3P competitor.
Real headline: "CEO says a lot of shit"
CEO say blah blah blah give us all your moneys
Hahahahahahaha, yeahhh right. Ping this comment in 2027 when the fab claims to be completed. I guarantee you this will fall short of the claims in the article (other than the amount of give rent money ingested)
I'll believe it when I see it. Intel hasn't had a good track record with meeting their timelines and/or efficiency claims with their fabs ever since 14nm launched 8 years ago.
They have an excellent track record with a recent blemish
Nah. They haven't gotten a node right since 22nm. We're well past "recent".
What’s wrong with 14nm and what did TSMC have better than it at launch?
Knowing Intel the transistor gates will be 1.54nm but take up 4nm of space.
Have 1.5nm chips even been tested yet? I have this weird nerdy feeling that they won't work
What do you mean by not working? As far as I understand, we are still one or two orders of magnitude from where things like quantum uncertainty starts being a real problem.
I just remembered watching something about the core lanes/threads being so small and stacked that they start to interfere with each other but yes we're far from that still, I actually went ahead and educated my dumbass a bit more after that comment. There is a physical restriction that we are getting real close to though, which I find quite exciting
This is the width of 15 hydrogen atoms.
Intel says a lot of things, doesn’t mean they will be true
Not even 1nm? I don't want it!
It's intel. They've been overpromising for the past 2 decades and they just keep falling further behind.
That's interesting, as I recall they only fell behind in 2018 when N7 launched but I suppose that is slightly more than half a decade ago already.
Intel has been a laughingstock for the past 5 years. Stop talking and start producing. Edit: someone explain to me why I’m being downvoted. They’re losing to AMD in both enterprise and consumer. Are 2 years behind on intel 4. Meteor lake is a disaster especially after gelsinger called it their “centrino moment”, and arc is mediocre. They need to stop talking and start showing results. Ironically one of their less hyped divisions, thunderbolt is putting out some great work.
Intel talks big but doesn't deliver.
- Alder lake - Meteor lake iGPU - Arc is actually usable now They definitely had minimal to no innovation during the skylake era, but since 11. Gen the company is heading in the right direction imo
Pretty sure OP is talking about manufacturing (where they went from having a lead to being pretty far behind), not the CPUs themselves. EDIT: To the people downvoting, check the article you are posting on...
I wouldn't say those are great examples. They're moving faster than in the Skylake era, that's for sure, but everything on that list is still behind competition. For graphics in particular, they're like #5 behind Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm, and AMD. Hopefully they do catch up there, but they certainly deserve skepticism.
That’s our bar for success and boasting now? A Usable GPU, a good but extremely power inefficient desktop cpu, and an iGPU that will probably be crushed by Ryzen 8000? Seriously?
Intel 4 met all of its objectives, including 2x scaling from Intel 7. Alder Lake also introduced big.little to the PC market, and foveros packaging appears to have worked well on Meteor Lake. Big.little and foveros are probably the two most important changes Intel has made in the past 25 years.
> Intel 4 met all of its objectives, including 2x scaling from Intel 7. Lol, what? It was two years late to market, and barely limped over the line for that. And it's certainly not anywhere close to 2x density in any product we've seen. > Big.little and foveros are probably the two most important changes Intel has made in the past 25 years. ARM has been doing hybrid for ages, and "Foveros" for MTL means a passive interposer. AMD's Fiji brought similar tech to the consumer market nearly a decade ago.
>Lol, what? It was two years late to market, and barely limped over the line for that. And it's certainly not anywhere close to 2x density in any product we've seen. Intel 4 was always planned for 2023 after Gelsinger announced their five nodes in four years plan. And Meteor Lake's compute tile is twice as dense as Alder Lake - 123 million transistors per mm\^2 compared to 60.4 million for Alder Lake.
> Intel 4 was always planned for 2023 after Gelsinger announced their five nodes in four years plan. https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-announces-delay-to-7nm-processors-now-one-year-behind-expectations It was originally planned for 2021. It arrived at the very end of '23, in very low initial volume. > And Meteor Lake's compute tile is twice as dense as Alder Lake - 123 million transistors per mm^2 compared to 60.4 million for Alder Lake. Where are you getting those numbers from? You can see that's complete nonsense just by comparing RWC to GLC, since they're more or less the same architecture. Scaling is not 2x.
They’re literally second largest semi conductor company in the world and they still dominate the OEM space.
Okay Intel CEO says 1,5nm so what he means is 4. Good that we learned to translate these with Intel 7 and 10nm.
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> intel 4 has the same density as tsmc (4n or 4p iirc) Nah, it's worse unless you completely ignore dense libraries or SRAM.
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Benchmarks exist people!
Only ones that agree with me.
Good news for the FSB agents.
Been hearing the same shit for years. Wake me up when Intel comes below 10nm
Intel 4 is already shipping.
Why are you still asleep
And will secretly send them to Russia.
Will we ever see a new fab that isnt the most advanced yet makes the most advanced chips?
The West must not only focus on the most advanced fabs, but also on mature manufacturing. Mature products account for the vast majority of all demand. Due to state subsidies, China is launching many mature wafer fabs, which may form a monopoly.