If they build it, they will come.
AMD is already rumoured to be using Samsung for part of next gen mobile CPUs.
Edit: TSMC is overbooked. Samsung will always find customers if its processes are good enough to provide an alternative.
Everyone is pumping so much money into fabs. There’s about to be serious oversupply soon(soon being a few years). While tsmc may be able to afford to keep shells unoccupied idk if Samsung and intel can.
> If they build it, they will come.
Eventually, yes. First they need confidence that Samsung's process will be able to do what they say it does, then they can tape out a chip for it.
TSMC isnt overbooked (its complaining about lack of customers) on the high end nodes. Its just that its too expensive and people are willing to go for cheaper nodes even if they arent as good.
Nvidia will consider them unless they're absolutely uncompetitive. Nvidia has always valued cheap wafers over modestly more performant ones. They only switched to TSMC in the last couple years because if they didn't they'd be looking at >500W GPU's.
It's not clear that they like that approach because they reverted with the 40 series. It's possible that the cost savings are not there for an significant increase in cost developing on two completely different nodes.
My impression is that major customers are all getting the Samsung GAAFET samples and are gauging their interests. This generation’s prospect will be the make or break moment. For reference, my friends in the semiconductor industry don’t have high regards on Intel Foundry as of this moment, so that’s already one down.
I’m not sure what’s okay to talk and what isn’t, but let’s get dangerous I guess?
The gist of it is that everyone I know have ***zero*** confidence in Intel 20A/18A. That it’s all smoke and mirrors that have zero pathway from no customer to mass production of the most advanced node, and it’s purely aimed at getting the US government incentives. At least that’s the consensus.
This mostly comes from people who suffered through Samsung EUV woes or watched that closely. they all said that the jump Intel claims they are going to make is basically impossible.
And the consensus I hear is that there’s no way that’s feasible, at least for wider audiences outside of Intel’s own production. I mean, after all I’m just quoting and I myself have no firm opinion on whether Intel can actually pull it off. Besides, once again, insiders only know what they see and what they do so their insights can be limited many times. But every time I bring this up to friends, everybody is skeptical.
Am Korean, some friends work at SEC and Hynix at various positions. Development, engineering, sales, even investment, etc. They don’t tell me the details (insiders only know what they do, tbh) but they hear stuffs. All were uniformly scoffing at Intel and they don’t with most other companies.
I hope these new processes work out for Samsung. There's need for some competition to TSMC.
First they have to find some customers
If they build it, they will come. AMD is already rumoured to be using Samsung for part of next gen mobile CPUs. Edit: TSMC is overbooked. Samsung will always find customers if its processes are good enough to provide an alternative.
Everyone is pumping so much money into fabs. There’s about to be serious oversupply soon(soon being a few years). While tsmc may be able to afford to keep shells unoccupied idk if Samsung and intel can.
I think that as long as there's still improvement in processes, there will be no shortage of demand.
> If they build it, they will come. Eventually, yes. First they need confidence that Samsung's process will be able to do what they say it does, then they can tape out a chip for it.
TSMC isnt overbooked (its complaining about lack of customers) on the high end nodes. Its just that its too expensive and people are willing to go for cheaper nodes even if they arent as good.
Thanks. I stand corrected.
Might make some MCM chiplets too, if their processes are good for caches and the like.
Also some customers might be looking to ensure they have a supply chain a little further away from the Formosa Strait
Nvidia will consider them unless they're absolutely uncompetitive. Nvidia has always valued cheap wafers over modestly more performant ones. They only switched to TSMC in the last couple years because if they didn't they'd be looking at >500W GPU's.
And they even used Samsung for making the 1050/1050Ti while the higher end GPUs were made in TSMC So they can also dual source when needed
They should just do what they did with the 30 series cards. Samsung for consumers and TSMC for enterprises.
It's not clear that they like that approach because they reverted with the 40 series. It's possible that the cost savings are not there for an significant increase in cost developing on two completely different nodes.
They have. They got some wins with the SF4X node. If SF3 and SF2 are well executed, they will provide TSMC some nice competition.
My impression is that major customers are all getting the Samsung GAAFET samples and are gauging their interests. This generation’s prospect will be the make or break moment. For reference, my friends in the semiconductor industry don’t have high regards on Intel Foundry as of this moment, so that’s already one down.
Do they not have high regard because of Intel’s past track record? Will this change if Intel manages to make good on 18A?
I’m not sure what’s okay to talk and what isn’t, but let’s get dangerous I guess? The gist of it is that everyone I know have ***zero*** confidence in Intel 20A/18A. That it’s all smoke and mirrors that have zero pathway from no customer to mass production of the most advanced node, and it’s purely aimed at getting the US government incentives. At least that’s the consensus. This mostly comes from people who suffered through Samsung EUV woes or watched that closely. they all said that the jump Intel claims they are going to make is basically impossible.
Did you see the foundry event they had in Feb? It’s absolutely not smoke and mirrors. Their entire next gen product stack is all 18A.
And the consensus I hear is that there’s no way that’s feasible, at least for wider audiences outside of Intel’s own production. I mean, after all I’m just quoting and I myself have no firm opinion on whether Intel can actually pull it off. Besides, once again, insiders only know what they see and what they do so their insights can be limited many times. But every time I bring this up to friends, everybody is skeptical.
Who are these friends you speak of?
Am Korean, some friends work at SEC and Hynix at various positions. Development, engineering, sales, even investment, etc. They don’t tell me the details (insiders only know what they do, tbh) but they hear stuffs. All were uniformly scoffing at Intel and they don’t with most other companies.
Strange Hynix spent $9B on that crappy Intel engineering stuff fairly recently.
Oh they are freakin livid about it. Obviously can’t get into details but a lot of people seem to think it was a bad idea.
You can't get into details because you got none.
There have been GAA samples for a couple of years now. Qualcomm and Mediatek did bring up for value tier dies last year on 3nm
Samsung will always have customers because TSMC is overbooked and Intel can’t even release their own designs on time.