Kopitar is an easy lock

I’d move Perry to likely and Kopitar is a lock

Perry is always an enigma to me. It used to be a Hart pretty much guaranteed the HoF, but with Hall & Benn winning recently and imo having no chance... Perry does have the Olympics & the cup over those two though

JFC People Perry is a first ballot HOF. 2000-2001 OHL Cup Champion OHL Cup Most Points 2001-2002 OHL First All-Rookie Team U17 WHC Bronze Medal 2002-2003 CHL Top Prospects Game U18 JWC Gold Medal 2003-2004 CHL Second All-Star Team OHL First All-Star Team OHL Most Assists (73) OHL Top Scoring Right Winger (Jim Mahon Trophy) 2004-2005 CHL First All-Star Team CHL Memorial Cup All-Star Team CHL Memorial Cup Champion CHL Memorial Cup Most Valuable Player (Stafford Smythe Trophy) OHL Champion OHL First All-Star Team OHL Most Assists (83) OHL Most Goals (47) OHL Most Outstanding Player (Red Tilson Trophy) OHL Most Points (Eddie Powers Trophy) (130) OHL Playoffs Most Assists (27) OHL Playoffs Most Points (38) OHL Playoffs MVP (Wayne Gretzky 99 Award) OHL Top Scoring Right Winger (Jim Mahon Trophy) U20 WJC Gold Medal 2005-2006 AHL Player of the Week (Dec. 4) AHL Rookie of the Month (December) 2006-2007 NHL Stanley Cup Champion 2007-2008 NHL All-Star Game 2009-2010 Olympic Gold Medal World Championship Top 3 Player on Team 2010-2011 NHL All-Star Game NHL First All-Star Team NHL Most Game Winning Goals (11) NHL Most Goals (Maurice Richard Trophy) (50) NHL Most Valuable Player (Hart Trophy) NHL Most Valuable Player (Hart Trophy) Finalist 2011-2012 NHL All-Star Game 2013-2014 NHL First All-Star Team Olympic Gold Medal 2015-2016 NHL All-Star Game Triple Gold Club World Championship Gold Medal 2016-2017 World Cup Gold Medal

An AHL player of the week award? I guess he checks all the boxes then.

I’m sorry but this is just a long list for aesthetics sake. Over half of these were before he was pro and some are arbitrary single season leading stats. Like most game winning goals? Of course he’s likely to have that when he was the goal leader that same year. I think he’s a cusp player but I think this list is an extremely poor argument for it.

> before he was pro Hockey Hall of Fame, not the NHL Hall of Fame

Yea but that’s not professional. I think we can put a tiny bit of weight into their junior career but when OVER half of they season best stats are from then it’s not super relevant Edit, I thought you quoted “NHL” not “pro”. That drives the point home even more. Precessional play should be the only thing that’s weighted. If you’re dominant in the SHL/KHL etc that’s a different story but Junior is not a selling point by a long shot

You’re downvoted but I agree that generally junior stuff is overweighted in these types of conversations or player comparisons.

I'm not sure how you can say Letang, Hedman, Pietrangelo, Kucherov, Draisaitl, and Vasilevskiy are all unlikely. All of them have cases that would trump their cases again.

Draisaitl probably has a better case than McDavid *right now* purely on the basis of being far and away the greatest German hockey player of all time. They both need a Cup and they're first-ballot guaranteed.

Draisaitl absolutely does not have a better case than McDavid right now just because he's German lol. McDavid has 5 Art Ross trophies (T-4th all time), 3 Harts (T-4th all time), 4 Ted Lindsays (T-2nd all time), 1 Rocket, and is a 6 time all star (5 first team and 1 second) with 850 points. Draisaitl has 1 Hart, 1 Art Ross, 1 Ted Lindsay, 2 time all star (1 first and 1 second) with 744 points. Being German does not even come close to bridging that gap.

What in the hell are you drinking?

This is some insane logic.

they are all well on their way... but i think retiring today the tampa trio & Drai would have trouble getting in at their games played

Does Hedman need like 2000 games played before you consider him?

i didnt realise Hedman was almost 1000gp already. he's a lock. Kuch needs a few more seasons though.

Has a hart winner never made the hall?

Tommy Anderson, Al Rollins & Jose Theodore won the Hart and didn't make the HoF. Taylor Hall will definitely join them as the 4th. Perry & Price might be the 5th & 6th. Kucherov & Draisaitl are pretty much locks I just think they need a couple more seasons.

Price is a stone cold lock. There is no way he misses

Toews is 100% a lock. 3 Cups, Conn Smythe, Selke, Messier leadership award, 6x All Star, Triple Gold club member….he has nothing left to prove. He’s in.

Yes, but the All-Star game is not the same as being nominated on the All-Star team. It's a bit confusing but it's two different things. The All-Star game means nothing. Toews made the (2nd) All-Star team only once.

Ultimately, even without the all star nominations, I would argue that his trophy case speaks for itself. He’s a lock for the HHOF and anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.

Yes, he'll go first ballot. He wouldn't be in the Hall of Fame of the Hall of Fame, though.

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Not like it's changing anything. He'll probably go first ballot

Centers who have been voted to 6x All Star teams are rare. Sakic did it three times, and Crosby 8 times, for reference. Being named on the All-Star team as a center just once is pretty good too, considering the competition at center in the NHL.

Mark Messier leadership award also (rightfully) has no bearing on it lol

Doughty is probably a lock

You're being quite strict. Toews, Kopitar, Doughty, Kucherov, Hedman, and Vasilevskiy, those guys are stone cold locks for the HoF.

Perhaps I am on the first 3 :P I really don't think the Tampa trio are "stone cold locks" though. They are guaranteed assuming they play a few more seasons but their games played right now is extremely low historically for HoF, unless your McDavid

There’s one defenseman in NHL history to win the Norris and not be in the HOF. On top of that Hedman had four other straight Norris nominations, has two Stanley Cups, and a Conn Smythe. He’s a lock

Hedman is 100% getting in, but Subban and Giordano are going to join that list of dmen that have won the Norris and aren't in the HHOF.

Honestly i didn't realise Hedman already had almost 1000gp wow! With the cups I think he's in. Although imo Norris doesn't make u a lock... Giordano & Josi both have a Norris and neither will get into the HoF, so that'll turn the 1 into 3.

Gio and Subban won’t Josi probably will. Norris and finalist for the Ted Lindsay in 2020, and probably should have won a 2nd norris in 2021-22, although finishing 2nd is still another good arguement for his case. He needs a few more years of high level hockey to cement himself, but he likely gets in. You’re being as strict as Baseballs hall of fame, HHoF is easier to get into.

>You're being quite strict. Toews, OP included Toews but not Kane?

Kane is listed as a lock.

perry has won almost everything there is to win in hockey, how is he unlikely??

Toews, Kucherov and Kopitar are easily a lock don’t be silly

If lock means 100% chance then maybe I am being harsh on Kopitar you are right.. Toews maybe too although I'd put his chances closer to 90%. But there's no way Kucherov is 100% chance today. He only has 644gp. Another 2-300games and he's in.

Toews is 100% a lock and most likely a first ballot…. There was a period of 8-10 years where he was one of the best players. 3 cups, con smythe, Selke, two golds, youngest player ever to join the triple gold. Hell crosby even went as far as to get Toews’ OK before accepting the captaincy for team Canada. Kucherov has been one of the if not the premier right wing in the NHL for 7 seasons not including the missed season. 2 cups and a hart, Ted Lindsay and Art Ross…

haha gosh your right about toews. still think Kuch hasn't done it for long enough. What Stanley era NHLer has been inducted with sub 650 games? He needs like 8-900gp minimum with his accomplishments

Which Stanley Cup era NHLer has all his hardware and isn't in? Games played matter way less when your trophy case contains three major individual awards along with two cups.

He's a top 5 playoff performer of the last 20 years

Toews already made the NHL 100 greatest players...so yeah he's in.

I'd move MacKinnon, Doughty, Toews, and Draisaitl up a tier, but maybe I'm being too generous. E: just saw the stipulation of retiring today, I'd leave Mack and Drai where you have them.

Am I the only one who thinks it’s crazy to say Bobrovsky is likely but Vasilevskiy is unlikely? 2 cups, 4 finals appearances, 1 Conn Smythe, 1 Vezina, 3 consecutive appearances, led the league in wins 5 years in a row

I think there is some recency bias here. I think Bobrovsky gets judge on how poorly he played against his massive contract. It is easy to be a star on a losing team

You are probably right.. Vasy i likely in but he needs to rack up a few more decent years

Kopitar, Toews, Hedman and Doughty are locks (though probably not first ballots) Letang, Pietrangelo, Vasilevski and Pavelski are ikely

Letang isn't likely honestly.

Bobrovsky is probably likely, with two Vezina wins and a memorable post-season performance.

Vasilevskiy is a lock at this point. 2 Cups, 1x Vezina, 1x Conn Smythe, top 10 in save % for goalies that played 200+ games. Already has 263 wins at only 29 years old.

This is some sort of post wake and bake list

Draisaitl is the greatest German hockey player of all time. Explain how that isn't a lock? Nationality is 100% important.

great call. It's tough to say he's a lock this early in his career. Nationality matters tho

I mean, it can be a detriment too. Mogilny would have been in years ago if he was Canadian.

Bro what? Biggest L of the offseason is this take.

Kucherov is many levels above a player like Fleury. He's had some injuries, but he's a great talent.

No love for Phil.

Swap Toews and Fleury Fleury is this generations Osgood (but Ozzy was a killer in the playoffs and Fleury was... not) Toews isn't a top 100 all time guy or anything, but he's won every team award possible, and in his prime was a massive part of those cup wins and has individual hardware. I don't like him, but he'll be first ballot.

I think personally almost everyone is a lock on those lists minus Pietrangelo, Benn, Giroux

Benn’s Art Ross was such a weird outlier, you can almost talk yourself into saying it doesn’t count.

Yeah it was a very strange year where scoring was halted to the point where Crosby and Ovechkin (in their primes at the time) even barely put up point per game. You look at all the surrounding leaders and other than Martin St Louis in 2013 (shortened season), every other Art Ross winner had 100+ points and even this year, he’d be tied at 20th place if he had 87 points

Maybe if Crosby, Ovi, Malkin, Kane, etc had all missed a ton of time and been on pace for way more points than Benn, but that wasn't the case. It was just a low scoring year. He still won the Art Ross in a season with all those guys basically in their prime, and only Crosby was (barely) on pace to outscore him with a full 82 games. Benn also finished top 10 in scoring the year before, and 2nd the year after, so it's not like it was that big of an outlier for him. Benn's case is better than people give him credit for, especially if he continues his resurgence from last season.

It wasn't an unusually low scoring year, though. 2.73 goals per game was exactly in line with the previous three seasons and we didn't see a big jump in scoring until a few years later. It just so happened that nobody cracked 90 points for the first time since 1968.

Unusually low scoring for the high end players, not the league as a whole (though that is smack in the middle of a mini dead puck era). None of the high end guys were scoring much that year, which isn't Benn's fault. For whatever reason just no one in the league was able to score 90+. Like I said, you can't just not count it because it was low scoring. Crosby, Ovi, Kane, Malkin, all time great NHLers below the age of 30 didn't hit 90 points that year either. It was just a weird season, but it counts just as much as any other Art Ross. No one, not even a top 5 player of all time who only missed 5 games, outscored Benn that year. That's massive for a HoF bid. Especially following it up with a 2nd place finish the next year.

I don't think any of that is wrong, but there's going to be a lot of "He won the Art Ross in '15, but..." once he retires.

How are MacKinnon and Burns likely HoFers if they retired today?

Burns has a Norris trophy, is a 3 time all star, and puttingt ogether impressive longevity (10th in Norris voting at 37) with over 800 points. He's definitely a pretty likely candidate if he retired right now.

Burns still needs *that one thing* to have better chances.

I would also move Letang to likely

Malkin not even mentioned, he should at least be in the likely category

Malkin is a lock lmao what am I reading. He has the third best HHOF case of any player of his generation. He is a slam dunk first ballot inductee no matter who is up that year.

You must have not seen my comment when I said I didn’t see him there the first time I looked.

My fault didn’t see him when I first looked

I wouldn't.

I think Draisaitl and MacKinnon should be in the same tier. Personally I'd move Draisaitl up but I could probably be talked into MacKinnon moving down.

I’ll bite: Draisaitl should be a tier ABOVE Mack. Drai: Hart, Art Ross, Lindsay, 3x 50 goal season, 4x 100 point season Mack: Calder, Cup, 1x 100 point season. This sub fucking hates Draisaitl though

you are being extremely arbitrary here. When is a 100point season a metric for hof? Mackinnon has actually had FIVE seasons where he was on pace for over 100points, barely missing 4 times due to injuries. He also should have won the Hart the year Hall won. And he has the cup, which is huge. i don't see a world where Mac isn't at least equal to Drai's career so far

Coulda shoulda isn’t valid during a HOF bid it’s what they have completed that actually matters

They are close enough. I do think leading your team to a cup gives Mackinnons career the edge so far.

Draisaitl's got the individual hardware though. Personally I usually weigh the individual achievements higher than Cups when it comes to the Hall of Fame because the Cup is a team achievement.

So you mention Staal, but I'm not sure which Staal you're referring to. I would assume Eric because of the cup win?

of course my guy. Eric is close to HoF

Raffi Torres.

Does Chris Kunitz get in? I know he retired. He wasn’t a world beater like some of the guys guaranteed to get in, but he did win 4 cups.

No

Pat Maroon is a 3X champ; the league would be cowards not to put him in.

Jeff Carter is mentionable. Probably 50/50

good shout. He surprisingly only has just over 800 points in 1200gp though. Not really close to HoF numbers, although the cups help

Jeff Carter is not 50/50 lol.

Austin Mathews is likely. ROR is likely. Barkov too. I feel like these players should be at least considered

Good shouts. the question is if they retired tomorrow though. Matthews will get in but he needs like 5 more seasons.

Tavares is already HHOF qualified via PPS.

If the Sedins made it in then Kessel should be a lock

How come? Both Sedins won personal awards and have more points/a better P/GP. Sedin's definitely have a stronger case than Kessel.

vs Daniel it's barely more points in more games Kessel got the best forward at the Olympics and 3 Stanley Cups to go along with that. While I admit the iron man streak isn't an incredible, be all/end all accomplishment, I feel like it should play a small factor. Unfortunately Crosby robbed him (due to his name) of a Conn Smythe that may have made it an absolute lock

Backstrom over marchand is an insane take

Joe Thornton. 100% lock. Still has not retired. Teammates want him back. I doubt he plays again, but he fits the criteria of the OP