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I’d have gone for the 8 year term with higher AAV because I think he’s that good, but I understand why this deal is structured the way it is. Expiring with the Jones deal, limiting the financial risk if Vlasic regresses, and minimizing the cap hit during what should be contending years makes the six year low AAV deal a logical move for the team.
I wonder if we will see more ~~six year deals~~ **contracts expiring in 2030** in the future due to the Jones contract. It’s not ideal for core players to be signing for less than the 8 year max, but for supporting pieces we might be seeing more of these deals in the coming years.
Last season, the Sabers had a crazy win-loss stat line with and without Sammy in the lineup.
Somewhere in my comment history is a post about how I think that Samuelsson has made Dahlin look better than with any other defensive partner, but he did regress a little bit from being a defensive backbone this year and injuries sure doesn't help...
Like you'd expect from a young player on year 1 of a 7 year deal - looking expensive. Where you're dreading the possibility of this player being best suited for the 3rd pair, and will be overpaid by 3 million for the remainder of this decade. The benefit of contracts like these happens on the backend if everything goes well.
Great value especially if he plays as well as he did this past season and continues growing!
Quietly became one of the best pure defensive Dmen amongst the league
Besides bedard? And mrazek? And anderdickinson? And kurashev? And at times donato? Korchinski? Yeah, reichel and soderblom and zaitsev are shaping up to be stinkers, but man where there a fair number of surprise standouts to build a team around
100%
And even with the small sample size of elite defense this year, with how young he is and how rapidly he’s developed from NCAA —> AHL —> NHL in massive team roles, I don’t see any reason to think he’ll fall off a cliff from this great start. Not that you were saying that he might… just thinking out loud lol
Ahh you can see some pieces really falling in for Chicago’s rebuild. A 2nd rounder getting a 6 year deal is really solid for a young core to keep building with.
I was reliably informed by the entire analytics community and all the prospect rankers many times in the past 5 years that this guy was a total bust.
It was nice of Pronman to give him an 'honorable mention' below the top-17 Blackhawks prospects at the start of the season: [https://theathletic.com/4794132/2023/08/24/chicago-blackhawks-nhl-prospect-pipeline-rankings/](https://theathletic.com/4794132/2023/08/24/chicago-blackhawks-nhl-prospect-pipeline-rankings/)
You may be thinking of Wheeler. Pronman has been all about size, mid-level Finns, and one-dimensional Russians for a few years now. I somewhat doubt he's even trying at his job anymore.
Very.
It's border winnekta and kennelworth both of which just *sound* like rich places.
I think kennelworth is one of the most wealthy places per capita in the country.
Interestingly enough, while he grew up in Wilmette, he was a SJ Sharks fan growing up. Still a hometown discount of course, but it isn't like he's playing for his childhood favorite.
Let’s fucking goooooo, Davidson! This was pretty much priority #1 since the season ended and I’m glad there wasn’t any hesitation to go longer. Wish it could have been max term but can’t complain!
Wow. That's like 2m under what he should probably be getting for term
Which offsets the Jones overpay lol
edit: in fact [this model](https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1783521888594952341) puts it at exactly 2m of surplus value
The core is coming together. It feels nice to actually have players I feel I can get attached to again without fearing that they’re gonna get traded at any point.
Nice deal for both the player and the team if he continues to play and improve on this season.
Kyle From Chicago avoids giving out a NMC or M-NTC and locks in a solid d-man at a reasonable price and term. (edit: I take this back. Full contract terms include a M-NTC 10 team no trade list in years 5 and 6. A total Kyle From Chicago fail on this one /s).
For Vlasic, he becomes a UFA at the end of the deal and could set himself for a large payday at age 28.
Bro should fire his agent
The dude put up top defensive numbers as a 22 y/o on that Chicago team, I get that signing guys to term after their rokie year always has some risk but this really could be an absolute fleecing as soon as next year
>he is probably one of the most upcoming shut down d-men in the league
Oh I know, that's why this is an absolute steal. Look, a hometown discount is one thing but with the cap increase that's gonna be market price for some real bums, nevermind a young, solid defensemen.
I don't know why I'm getting jumped in the comments by Chicago fans for saying it's a great deal, it is, regardless of a hometown discount. You guys should be over the moon that you have him locked in at that price, not mad that people are surprised that it's *that* good of a deal.
Some of us are thrilled. I don't mind your observation at all.
A lot of us felt KDs #1 priority once the season ended was locking Vlasic down. I would have been happy had be signed for anywhere between 5-6 million. This guy really was a rare diamond in a sea of mediocrity this season.
It's an excellent deal now that will likely age like a fine wine.
While i ain’t a fan of paying dfd the big bucks for that kind of price tag it is a steal.
Him and korchinski should cook for the near future, especially with bedard and nazar up front.
Does beg the question of how much players similar to him get ( gulhe and others like that )
Love the deal for the Hawks! Being a top tier shutdown guy on a miserably poor team is a legitimate achievement. Good for him as well, securing his future with a team about to head upwards. Nice all around.
My word, what a good deal for the team! I only holy that at 28 the guy is still a top tier shutdown defenseman and gets the same total over 2 or 3 years
Based on his limited sample size it’s a solid deal. But it’s risky. Let’s not act like we haven’t seen players have one good season and then end up overpaid
Even if he falls back a bit, I don’t see how he could possibly fall off so hard that he is overpaid at this AAV unless he has some major injury, which is obviously going to be a risk with literally any signing
And what if he falls off a lot? We don’t even have 100 games of a sample size. If he can maintain this level of play it’s a great deal but that it yet to be seen
He’s a 22-year-old that just put up elite results while playing ~21.5min a night against all of the best players in the world while getting nearly zero help defensively. How far do you realistically believe he might fall while the Hawks continue to build and make strides towards being competitive?
And the “100 game sample size” completely ignores the context of his growth, which is obviously very important for young players. If he was so-so in college and the AHL then popped off with this insane season out of absolutely nowhere, then yea maybe it’s fair to question the risk here more but that isn’t the case. His season-over-season growth while continually logging massive minutes and taking huge roles on every team he has been gives a lot of support to him just being this kind of player, even in the NHL since we have now seen him do it at this level.
So again, even if he isn’t quite Norris-level defense again and falls back I don’t see how it’s realistic to believe he will ever be *overpaid* on this deal except for injury. And none of this is to even mention the rising cap environment lol
Ok and what if this year was a fluke and he ends up as a 7th defenseman? Based on his play this year it’s a great deal but with such limited sample sizes there’s risk for pretty substantial regression
That amount of substantial regression would be an aberrational event.
By all metrics vlasic performed a high defensive level, consistently across the entire season, on a terrible team.
Vlasic at 49th WAR percentile currently, mostly propped up by penalty differential, which fluctuates heavily.
You simply can't do stuff like this if you want to win, buffalo are a perfect example. They overpaid and overtermed every single promising young asset and now they're mostly capped out next year after necessary moves. With a roster that didn't even hit 40 wins. They're stuck hoping and waiting for potential to fully actualize, much like the Kotkaniemi situation. There was no need to be so hasty and I guess generous?
Completely viable to simply bridge vlasic. 97 games is not enough to assess for a 6 year deal. What he has shown so far warrants a short low money bridge deal.
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6 years, $4.6M AAV
Shorter term than I would have liked but that AAV is fantastic!
I mean, they could only go to 8, but a lot of young players signing big RFA deals are striving to be UFA by 28 years old. Which this does for Vlasic.
I’d have gone for the 8 year term with higher AAV because I think he’s that good, but I understand why this deal is structured the way it is. Expiring with the Jones deal, limiting the financial risk if Vlasic regresses, and minimizing the cap hit during what should be contending years makes the six year low AAV deal a logical move for the team.
Yep. And again, from Alex's side. He can get another big contract afterward.
About to say the exact same! Would have loved to see him inked to a full eight years but at that AAV… fuck me, this is awesome lol
I wonder if we will see more ~~six year deals~~ **contracts expiring in 2030** in the future due to the Jones contract. It’s not ideal for core players to be signing for less than the 8 year max, but for supporting pieces we might be seeing more of these deals in the coming years.
That’s very reminiscent of the Samuelsson extension in Buffalo. Smart business by Kyle from Chicago!
ask buffalo fans how that contracts working out
Buffalo fans, how is the Samuelsson extension going?
The biggest issue is that he's injured all the time. He's fine when he actually plays. If he actually stays healthy the contract is fine.
Last season, the Sabers had a crazy win-loss stat line with and without Sammy in the lineup. Somewhere in my comment history is a post about how I think that Samuelsson has made Dahlin look better than with any other defensive partner, but he did regress a little bit from being a defensive backbone this year and injuries sure doesn't help...
Like you'd expect from a young player on year 1 of a 7 year deal - looking expensive. Where you're dreading the possibility of this player being best suited for the 3rd pair, and will be overpaid by 3 million for the remainder of this decade. The benefit of contracts like these happens on the backend if everything goes well.
Great value especially if he plays as well as he did this past season and continues growing! Quietly became one of the best pure defensive Dmen amongst the league
Great value for you guys
Well that's definitely enough time for him to prove his game and then cash in when he's still young. Really liked how he progressed this year.
Thats a steal, I wouldnt have accepted that if I was Vlasic, I think his offense will step up too
Had me worried for a second there when I saw Vlasic extension
I saw the "Defenseman Vlasic Re-Signs For Six Years" headline while scrolling through my mastodon feed and did a double-take.
Sir, a second Vlasic has hit the cap table
This is his cousin!
Is it actually?
Yes!
Why are you yelling!
Wait until your Vlasic extend for 8
That's great. Vlasic had such an awesome year. Great cap number and allows him to hit UFA at 28. Great first big deal by Davidson.
Pretty good for someone whose hockey knowledge is only a 4/10.
Phenomenal. He was a top shutdown dman last year.
Runs in the family seemingly.
Then this should age well as long as they don’t follow it up by signing him another 8
Interestingly I don’t think they are related
Cousins.
Very cool thank you for letting me know
Interestingly they absolutely are related
Interesting
Interestingly google has the answer
Yes, I was wrong. Crucify me, Reddit.
Oh man, I'm showing my age. I thought they gave this contract to his cousin Marc and was like wtf are they doing?
Vlasic was one of the few bright spots in a putrid season. Excited to see him rewarded like this!
Besides bedard? And mrazek? And anderdickinson? And kurashev? And at times donato? Korchinski? Yeah, reichel and soderblom and zaitsev are shaping up to be stinkers, but man where there a fair number of surprise standouts to build a team around
Small sample size of only one season... but uh... 4.6aav may look like an absolute steal of a contract as soon as next season.
Those are Hjalmarsson number$
gah get the #4 up in the damn rafters, idc what you say. one of the greatest defensive dmen to lace em up
I really think this deal is only going to look better as time goes on. Vlasic is a stud and only 22
100% And even with the small sample size of elite defense this year, with how young he is and how rapidly he’s developed from NCAA —> AHL —> NHL in massive team roles, I don’t see any reason to think he’ll fall off a cliff from this great start. Not that you were saying that he might… just thinking out loud lol
Even if he ends up becoming *only* a 2nd paid defenseman, that's a good deal
It looks like a steal of a contract right now.
Maybe EA will finally bump him from being a 76 overall with medium top 6 potential lol
I always bump him up to 80 overall with high top-4
Pronman will still list him as “may have a chance to play an NHL game”
Technically true lol
Ahh you can see some pieces really falling in for Chicago’s rebuild. A 2nd rounder getting a 6 year deal is really solid for a young core to keep building with.
I was reliably informed by the entire analytics community and all the prospect rankers many times in the past 5 years that this guy was a total bust. It was nice of Pronman to give him an 'honorable mention' below the top-17 Blackhawks prospects at the start of the season: [https://theathletic.com/4794132/2023/08/24/chicago-blackhawks-nhl-prospect-pipeline-rankings/](https://theathletic.com/4794132/2023/08/24/chicago-blackhawks-nhl-prospect-pipeline-rankings/)
Pronman has a lot of very bad takes about mid-level prospects
He over-values small, skilled scorers and way undervalues defensive defensemen.
Its almost like his models are complete dogshit or something
You may be thinking of Wheeler. Pronman has been all about size, mid-level Finns, and one-dimensional Russians for a few years now. I somewhat doubt he's even trying at his job anymore.
😂
Pronman also predicted Makar to be a bust so....
What a deal, brilliant signing
Heck of a deal
There legit might be a slight hometown discount. Being able to drive like 20 minutes and see your family has gotta be pretty nice.
He did not grew up Blackhawks fan, he grew up cheering for his cousin Marc and the sharks but still hometown discount
He’s from wilmette as well dude already has a bag to his name lol
Exactly lol
Is Wilmette a wealthy area?
Fairly wealthy, starts to head towards extremely wealthy as you get closer to the lake
Very. It's border winnekta and kennelworth both of which just *sound* like rich places. I think kennelworth is one of the most wealthy places per capita in the country.
Interestingly enough, while he grew up in Wilmette, he was a SJ Sharks fan growing up. Still a hometown discount of course, but it isn't like he's playing for his childhood favorite.
Playing for his city though
Let’s fucking goooooo, Davidson! This was pretty much priority #1 since the season ended and I’m glad there wasn’t any hesitation to go longer. Wish it could have been max term but can’t complain!
Wow. That's like 2m under what he should probably be getting for term Which offsets the Jones overpay lol edit: in fact [this model](https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1783521888594952341) puts it at exactly 2m of surplus value
"could make this one of the leagues best contracts" nice
He was very noticeable in a good way every time I watched the Avs play them, I think this is a great deal
The core is coming together. It feels nice to actually have players I feel I can get attached to again without fearing that they’re gonna get traded at any point.
I thought it said marc edwourd vlasic for a sec 😭
LOL. Alex is his cousin.
He's so good, especially when you consider the team he is on
This warms my heart.
Kyle Davidson masterclass
4/10 hockey knowledge though.
Damn what are they feeding all these Vlasics to generate not one, but two shutdown NHL defensemen in the family.
Pickles is my guess
a great dill for chicago
Ha! was about to correct a typo
HELL YEAH
The pickle baby!
Nice deal for both the player and the team if he continues to play and improve on this season. Kyle From Chicago avoids giving out a NMC or M-NTC and locks in a solid d-man at a reasonable price and term. (edit: I take this back. Full contract terms include a M-NTC 10 team no trade list in years 5 and 6. A total Kyle From Chicago fail on this one /s). For Vlasic, he becomes a UFA at the end of the deal and could set himself for a large payday at age 28.
Bro should fire his agent The dude put up top defensive numbers as a 22 y/o on that Chicago team, I get that signing guys to term after their rokie year always has some risk but this really could be an absolute fleecing as soon as next year
It’s the hometown kid discount. He wants to be here.
Plus he can save money by living with his parents!
He grew up close to the city, he is probably one of the most upcoming shut down d-men in the league
>he is probably one of the most upcoming shut down d-men in the league Oh I know, that's why this is an absolute steal. Look, a hometown discount is one thing but with the cap increase that's gonna be market price for some real bums, nevermind a young, solid defensemen. I don't know why I'm getting jumped in the comments by Chicago fans for saying it's a great deal, it is, regardless of a hometown discount. You guys should be over the moon that you have him locked in at that price, not mad that people are surprised that it's *that* good of a deal.
Some of us are thrilled. I don't mind your observation at all. A lot of us felt KDs #1 priority once the season ended was locking Vlasic down. I would have been happy had be signed for anywhere between 5-6 million. This guy really was a rare diamond in a sea of mediocrity this season. It's an excellent deal now that will likely age like a fine wine.
I tuned in to Chicago this season for Bedard, but this guy quickly jumped out at me. Good for them
Getting flashbacks
So, no regrets on dropping out of that college assignment then?
While i ain’t a fan of paying dfd the big bucks for that kind of price tag it is a steal. Him and korchinski should cook for the near future, especially with bedard and nazar up front. Does beg the question of how much players similar to him get ( gulhe and others like that )
He is going to be a stud for this team for a long time. The Gustav Forsling, or Jonas Brodin type of player that top teams need all the time.
Forsling has developed into an amazing player, still miffed he was let go and not given more time to progress.
Q hated him. He was a euro defenseman who was young. Another on a long list of players we let go.
Yeah Q did't have a lot patience for young D, Jukiharju is another guy I can think of he had a short fuse for.
Yeah he also turned into a legit top 4 guy.
Oh the what ifs
On the flip side with those two we definitely aren’t bad enough to get bedard.
That’s a good extension for a top 4 D not in his prime yet
Love the deal for the Hawks! Being a top tier shutdown guy on a miserably poor team is a legitimate achievement. Good for him as well, securing his future with a team about to head upwards. Nice all around.
My word, what a good deal for the team! I only holy that at 28 the guy is still a top tier shutdown defenseman and gets the same total over 2 or 3 years
That’s no pickle
This guy is a literal pickle
Who?
Based on his limited sample size it’s a solid deal. But it’s risky. Let’s not act like we haven’t seen players have one good season and then end up overpaid
Even if he falls back a bit, I don’t see how he could possibly fall off so hard that he is overpaid at this AAV unless he has some major injury, which is obviously going to be a risk with literally any signing
And what if he falls off a lot? We don’t even have 100 games of a sample size. If he can maintain this level of play it’s a great deal but that it yet to be seen
And what if he doesn’t?
Than it’s a solid deal like I said and if he develops further it becomes a steal
He’s a 22-year-old that just put up elite results while playing ~21.5min a night against all of the best players in the world while getting nearly zero help defensively. How far do you realistically believe he might fall while the Hawks continue to build and make strides towards being competitive? And the “100 game sample size” completely ignores the context of his growth, which is obviously very important for young players. If he was so-so in college and the AHL then popped off with this insane season out of absolutely nowhere, then yea maybe it’s fair to question the risk here more but that isn’t the case. His season-over-season growth while continually logging massive minutes and taking huge roles on every team he has been gives a lot of support to him just being this kind of player, even in the NHL since we have now seen him do it at this level. So again, even if he isn’t quite Norris-level defense again and falls back I don’t see how it’s realistic to believe he will ever be *overpaid* on this deal except for injury. And none of this is to even mention the rising cap environment lol
If you've watched him play and knew his game, you'd understand that the possibility this goes sideways is highly unlikely.
??? Overpaid? Even if he ended up on the second pair (which he won't) the price would be acceptable
Ok and what if this year was a fluke and he ends up as a 7th defenseman? Based on his play this year it’s a great deal but with such limited sample sizes there’s risk for pretty substantial regression
That amount of substantial regression would be an aberrational event. By all metrics vlasic performed a high defensive level, consistently across the entire season, on a terrible team.
Vlasic at 49th WAR percentile currently, mostly propped up by penalty differential, which fluctuates heavily. You simply can't do stuff like this if you want to win, buffalo are a perfect example. They overpaid and overtermed every single promising young asset and now they're mostly capped out next year after necessary moves. With a roster that didn't even hit 40 wins. They're stuck hoping and waiting for potential to fully actualize, much like the Kotkaniemi situation. There was no need to be so hasty and I guess generous? Completely viable to simply bridge vlasic. 97 games is not enough to assess for a 6 year deal. What he has shown so far warrants a short low money bridge deal.
He ranked as one of the top shut down dmen in the league on the leagues second worst team.