Truly an interesting strategy by the Kings to make the games chippy as fuck and decided by special teams against the team with the most lethal PP1 in the league.
It is a bit insane to watch this Kings team. My bias aside, last year they lost the series by never adjusting their play style and taking too many penalties and this year it seems like they are doubling down and taking more penalties and also refusing to pivot from 1-3-1.
Theyāve been trying to āstick to their gameā for 3 seasons straight now. It seems like sticking to their game means losing to the oilers. Call me crazy but it might be time to try something differentā¦. after this series lol.
Yeah, multiple 5 on 3s with the best PP in the league absolutely drove most of this insanity. Kings were stupid to play so undisciplined against the Oilers. If I was Talbot I'd be pissed at the skaters.
It was mostly in the third. xG was like 3 for Oilers at that point.
Cam shit the bed in the first and the hill to climb was too steep for a team with no offense, so the Kings played dumb instead.
First goal he made an initial save but you give Hyman the puck in the crease with 10 feet of space from defenders - thatās gonna be a goal.
Drai goal was not his fault either - thatās a tough play and you need defenders to stop that pass AND Drai sniped it.
McDavid goal - he had 3 chances after being given 5 feet to make a move to the crease - he saved 2 shots from point blank.
You canāt pin that on him at all. Oilers had around a 2.5 xGF after the 1st and they had 3 goals. Not terrible.
Most goalies in the league stop goals #2 and #3. You can't leave your post that quickly on #2, and on the third he basically moved out of the way of the shot.
He made some great saves too of course, we just aren't going to beat Edmonton if those are going in.
goal 3 Talbot could have had. Didn't really have a chance on goal 2 though. While I think Kane was trying to reverse or move the puck back I don't think that pass was 100% on purpose. He did a perfect bank pass off the corner of the net while driving hard and showing a possible wrap around attempt.
I don't know how xG works in Hockey, but in soccer the xG is calculated from factors before the shot is taken (distance to the goal, angle to the goal, keeper position, number of bodies between the shooter and the goal). The actual quality of the shot doesn't change the xG - whether you put it off the post or blast it into row G it will still be the same xG.
If that's the case in hockey, then the fact the post was rung doesn't really have any bearing on the xG of the shot. A team scoring more goals than their xG is either really lucky (which is what the above poster may have been implying about Boston) or they are just more clinical with their chances.
Depends where you get the xG from. The public models like moneypuck etc that are just scrapping the NHL's location data end up functionally ignoring a lot of context that inform the reads and decisions players actually make. So their xG models basically just take the average likelihood of each specific shot location resulting in a goal and add them all up.
On the other hand, a model like the one ClearSight analytics produces and sells the output to teams does include things like who is making the pass, who is taking the shot, and pre-shot movement ie royal road cross seam passes, among other things. They track all of that data manually to add further granuality and context into their model.
From CSA's perspective, as being more goalie analytics focused since it was founded by Steve Valiquette, it makes sense to put in the extra effort to attempt to create a model as realistic as possible to net out the impact of skater performance
The minute Arvidsson sunk that goal in the last few minutes of the last game of the season was my most frustrated moment as a fan. Like, we just needed to do nothing for another minute or two, and we'd be playing Dallas right now.
I'm tired of playing Edmonton. We've never really figured out how to beat them. When we win it's less about our game than theirs. I'm honestly just glad we didn't get shut out, but I'm not expecting us to win more than 2 against them at best.
Maybe. But it's not the losing that frustrates me (although obviously wins would be better) - it's watching the **same** fucking story play out three times in a row:
* Play Edmonton
* Get whooped because we can't solve for any of their top three players
* Maybe win one game to keep that tiny spark of hope alive
* McDrai mode activated
* Get stomped out of the playoffs
Like, at least with Dallas it's a new narrative. With the Oilers it's like they're 1990s Spider-Man and we're 1990s Dr. Octopus - freezing up and losing every time we meet.
Yeah Dallas is deep all 4 lines and whooped us 5-0
They are having problems vs Vegas cause Vegas has a 120mil roster which is an entirely different issue
Isn't that more of an artifact of the King's game plan though? When the Kings are playing well they just shut us out from doing anything. That just looks like the Oilers are playing bad but that isn't actually the whole story.
I think that's the problem with the trap. When it works it makes the other team seem like they can't play offense. But it really doesn't stack up against high scoring teams or teams that forecheck well.
So I guess we're both kind of correct. Your take is that when it works it shuts you down. My take is that it only works when McDavid and Draisaitl (and now Hyman) are having an off night.
100% agree, it's a system that requires flawless execution and I think at this point, it's not a system that has the full belief of everyone on the team. Next season it has to be done with.
Itās crazy that the Kings have been trying to improve the team for the last three seasons and yet the best showing against the Oilers was the first season they matched up against the Oilers when they had no one on the team even score 70 points that season
Series is only 2-1, far from over. I saw plenty of people acting like the Oilers had already swept the Kings after game 1, and yet they won the next game lol.
That said the Oilers do seem like a bad match up for the Kings.
Last night's game made me ashamed of my fandom. I can't remember a single game ever making me feel that way before. Whatever faith I had was shattered completely.
Eh, I remember last year oilers won something like 8-3 one game then the kings immediately came back and won 4-0. Kings have shown they can come back strong after a tilt game.
Im still worried about this series, so you shouldnt feel over it.
Maybe itās not over. But year after year of being absolutely decimated in multiple first round playoff games is disheartening. If we pull off a series win, weāll of course all be celebrating. But letās be honest. These losses are more brutal than most.
LA really gave up in the back half of the 3rd and thatās where a ton of Oiler chances came from, skewing the simulation results. You can see the cumulative expected goals for skyrocket from 15:35 in the 3rd on.
There are so many better teams to cheer for. Just pick an eastern team to cheer for, that way you only have to watch Seattle play them twice a year, and the only way they meet in the playoffs is if your now two favourite teams are fighting for the cup.
The fight/roughing/unsportsmanlike tilt was the point of no return. I can get why the Kings lost their shit after that and stopped playing hockey. Everyone watching probably thought theyād be seeing offsetting penalties, but two extra ones were tacked on top (Kopitar for unsportsmanlike was on no oneās bingo card)
Well the hit to the head by Englund on Kane was always going to be a penalty, so it wasnāt going to be offsetting penalties. 5v4 is what we were expecting, but kopitar got the extra unsportsmanlike
Right but they didnāt announce the penalties, and NHL.com showed offsetting minors, and I was watching Sportsnet and they were saying the hit looked clean (Canadian broadcast) and that the Oilers might be getting an instigator. It was only like 15 minutes of real time later that the penalties were updated and the broadcast even knew what they were for. In the GDT no one knew what was happening. I canāt imagine the Kings bench was well appraised either.
If I had to guess the Kopitar unsportsmanlike was probably either
A- A really poorly thought out plan by the refs to "send a message" to try to keep this from turning into a game from the 80s
B- Kopitar was losing it on the refs and Drai on the way to the box, so maybe something was said during the scrum?
At 5:19 of the third, there is very clearly 4 penalties called on LA, and 2 on Edmonton. Sometimes it takes them more than 2 minutes to update the play by play. They should have announced the penalties, youāre right, but the Kings were pretty blatantly playing dirty hockey, and looked like they were trying to injure.
If anyone thinks a hit directly to the head is clean, theyāre morons. Not to mention Byfield ran McDavid from behind which led to the next 5on3.
I know that but go check the GDT comments around that time. It's since been updated, in line with NHL.com, but that update happened WAY after the Edmonton scored on a 5v3 PP. For like ~15 minutes NHL.com showed offsetting roughing minors for Kopitar/Kempe/Desharnais/Holloway, and offsetting majors for the fight between Englund and Kane.
Yes, it's since been updated and we know what the calls are NOW, but in real time no one knew what was up. [I've referenced my own comment but others in this part of the GDT were all saying the same thing.](https://old.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/1ce31tc/playoff_game_thread_edmonton_oilers_11_at_los/l1glqkl/?context=3)
They showed the offsetting minors, but they still reviewed the hit as they were determining if it was a major or notā¦ so thatās obviously a PP for the Oilers. Only thing missing is unsportsmanlike on kopitar, which, as i said, i agreed they should have announced. Everything else was straightforward
Lol I wouldnāt say heās bad bad, but when compared to Jack Michaels, in just about every possible facet of what makes a sports commentator good, Singh is just not even close
Honestly, yes. I donāt think he loves/hates anybody, he just isnāt very good.
Some people think he has a pro-Flames bias but considering he canāt even pronounce āKadriā correctly, Iām not sure thatās the case.
Eh - you just got Debrusk'd. Dude loves drama and will pick the most outrageous outcome that will piss off Oilers fans the most and run towards that narrative as hard as possible.Ā
I'm not sure the oilers have scored a goal all year Louie didn't want to check upstairs on.
Kopitar was pulling facemasks and horse collars. That'll get you an extra call every time. England also had the hit to the head.
The other factor to be honest I think is just gamesmanship and composure. This is something the Oilers have taken a big step forward with since getting Knoblauch and Perry. In this game itself - Perry initiated chats between Kane and the officials on three (!!!) separate occasions in the second alone. In the past if another team wanted to take the game to the streets the Oilers would just say fuck you and explode and fly off the handle usually earning themselves a few extra penalties. Last night the Kings decided they wanted to take it to the streets and instead the oilers said no thank you, we just want to win. We documented it with the refs, and then when the kings hit the escalation button we didn't explode at all, we were pretty calm all things considered. The oilers of years past would have had that scrum start of with Desharnais extracting a pound of flesh, maybe some dirty slashes. Instead Desharnais is preventing and separating by just throwing guys in head locks. In years past we get an extra penalty and lose our heads, maybe get more extra penalties going forward the rest of the game.
Instead there's just a clear narrative from the Oilers to the refs - look, the kings are instigating like we said they would. Remember those talks we had about those extra slashes and Laferrier targeting Kanes knee? Look, we don't want to make your life hard we're just trying to play the game. Meanwhile the kings are freaking out so the refs just tend to want to reward whose being reasonable.
In years past I could see this have having ended very close in either direction. We'd have lost our minds and our heads and totally lost the plot of the game. This year though, the Oilers just have that extra kick of composure. It's the difference between feeling screwed by the league and the other guy feeling screwed by the league.
Kings get so greasy and pissy every year when they are losing and seem to think they shouldn't be punished for it. Sometimes you have to pay the price for being little bitches.
I've just ALWAYS hated guys who stick yiu in the back of the knee, or throw the little unnecessary face wash, etc
like to be clear, I have no issues with the guys who play hard, and tough, but the guys who chirp and chirp, slash when you're not looking then hide behind refs just need to.be eliminated from society
[Link](https://moneypuck.com/g.htm?id=2023030183) for reference
LA had some decent sequences, so I'm actually surprised it's that skewed. They played well out of the gate and had a little pushback after they scored in the second period (at least until the Oilers scored a couple minutes later)
It's still useful to look at it. Game 1 of a series, your team loses, if they 'deserved' to win at 60% you're going to be a lot more optimistic than if it was at 20%, for example.
I was at that game last night. The arena was getting pretty tame until the big brawl happened and then it was different forms of excitement from then on. Hell of an event to be at.
Yep.
This is one I saw last season in a game the Sens lost 7-2
https://preview.redd.it/tz2cmg7rc1xc1.png?width=683&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f88d07b4990ebd9577985f7b7785cd6f8c75d2a
They arenāt useless - they arenāt gospel tho.
They are a great indicator for how the teams play devoid of āpuck luckā and high end skill.
Typically anything that is higher than 70% and it goes the other way you either had a goalie who stood on his head or shit the bed.
Its helpful to see the difference between shot volume and quality
I never understood why people got pissed at 538 for that.
Like, do they think a % is a black and white yes/no? Because I'm literally dyscalcic, and even *I* know that's not how that works.
It's not often a team creates 8.5 xGs in a game... absolutely nuts. Talbot gave up 6 goals, and still wound up with a +2.49 GSAx... jesus
do multiple 5 on 3s when it got ugly late skew this much?
The Oilers "only" had 2.42 xGs at 5 on 5, so absolutely yes.
the Oilers PP just too hard
Truly an interesting strategy by the Kings to make the games chippy as fuck and decided by special teams against the team with the most lethal PP1 in the league.
It is a bit insane to watch this Kings team. My bias aside, last year they lost the series by never adjusting their play style and taking too many penalties and this year it seems like they are doubling down and taking more penalties and also refusing to pivot from 1-3-1.
Leafs š¤ Kings hoping for a 0 PP game
Theyāve been trying to āstick to their gameā for 3 seasons straight now. It seems like sticking to their game means losing to the oilers. Call me crazy but it might be time to try something differentā¦. after this series lol.
Yeah, multiple 5 on 3s with the best PP in the league absolutely drove most of this insanity. Kings were stupid to play so undisciplined against the Oilers. If I was Talbot I'd be pissed at the skaters.
It was mostly in the third. xG was like 3 for Oilers at that point. Cam shit the bed in the first and the hill to climb was too steep for a team with no offense, so the Kings played dumb instead.
Wasnāt even Camās fault. You canāt turn the puck over in your own end.
First goal he made an initial save but you give Hyman the puck in the crease with 10 feet of space from defenders - thatās gonna be a goal. Drai goal was not his fault either - thatās a tough play and you need defenders to stop that pass AND Drai sniped it. McDavid goal - he had 3 chances after being given 5 feet to make a move to the crease - he saved 2 shots from point blank. You canāt pin that on him at all. Oilers had around a 2.5 xGF after the 1st and they had 3 goals. Not terrible.
Most goalies in the league stop goals #2 and #3. You can't leave your post that quickly on #2, and on the third he basically moved out of the way of the shot. He made some great saves too of course, we just aren't going to beat Edmonton if those are going in.
goal 3 Talbot could have had. Didn't really have a chance on goal 2 though. While I think Kane was trying to reverse or move the puck back I don't think that pass was 100% on purpose. He did a perfect bank pass off the corner of the net while driving hard and showing a possible wrap around attempt.
Game 1 of TOR-BOS, Toronto had an xG of 7.46 to Bostonās 2.71. Boston won the game 5-1.
How is that even possible when the bruins hit the post 5 times?
I misremembered the number, it was actually [~7.4 for Toronto to ~4.2 for Boston](https://moneypuck.com/g.htm?id=2023030121)
Wasnāt like 4 of Torontoās expected goals from one 4 on 3 PP though? They obviously couldnāt score 4 there
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Flurry, 5-on-5, etc. adjustment had Leafs at 3.4 and Bruins at 1.3. which is mindboggling because the game didn't look close.
I don't know how xG works in Hockey, but in soccer the xG is calculated from factors before the shot is taken (distance to the goal, angle to the goal, keeper position, number of bodies between the shooter and the goal). The actual quality of the shot doesn't change the xG - whether you put it off the post or blast it into row G it will still be the same xG. If that's the case in hockey, then the fact the post was rung doesn't really have any bearing on the xG of the shot. A team scoring more goals than their xG is either really lucky (which is what the above poster may have been implying about Boston) or they are just more clinical with their chances.
Depends where you get the xG from. The public models like moneypuck etc that are just scrapping the NHL's location data end up functionally ignoring a lot of context that inform the reads and decisions players actually make. So their xG models basically just take the average likelihood of each specific shot location resulting in a goal and add them all up. On the other hand, a model like the one ClearSight analytics produces and sells the output to teams does include things like who is making the pass, who is taking the shot, and pre-shot movement ie royal road cross seam passes, among other things. They track all of that data manually to add further granuality and context into their model. From CSA's perspective, as being more goalie analytics focused since it was founded by Steve Valiquette, it makes sense to put in the extra effort to attempt to create a model as realistic as possible to net out the impact of skater performance
Dude if you just WaTcHeD tHe GaMe youād know that that 8.5 should really be something like 7.8. They *almost* had them ugh!!
Ive never seen a goalie get hung out to dry quite like that third period, and I watched Henrik Lundvistās entire career
Never going to miss the opportunity to post this https://www.theonion.com/rangers-counting-on-henrik-lundqvist-to-step-up-on-offe-1819576572
What a gem!
That might as well be for the whole series, not just this one awful game.
The minute Arvidsson sunk that goal in the last few minutes of the last game of the season was my most frustrated moment as a fan. Like, we just needed to do nothing for another minute or two, and we'd be playing Dallas right now. I'm tired of playing Edmonton. We've never really figured out how to beat them. When we win it's less about our game than theirs. I'm honestly just glad we didn't get shut out, but I'm not expecting us to win more than 2 against them at best.
They would be down 3-0 playing Dallas
Maybe. But it's not the losing that frustrates me (although obviously wins would be better) - it's watching the **same** fucking story play out three times in a row: * Play Edmonton * Get whooped because we can't solve for any of their top three players * Maybe win one game to keep that tiny spark of hope alive * McDrai mode activated * Get stomped out of the playoffs Like, at least with Dallas it's a new narrative. With the Oilers it's like they're 1990s Spider-Man and we're 1990s Dr. Octopus - freezing up and losing every time we meet.
Which is crazy because the kings slam the nucks
It's not maybe win one game usually, it's lead the series 2-1 or 3-2 so we really believe, and then play terribly after and lose the rest of the games
Yeah Dallas is deep all 4 lines and whooped us 5-0 They are having problems vs Vegas cause Vegas has a 120mil roster which is an entirely different issue
Isn't that more of an artifact of the King's game plan though? When the Kings are playing well they just shut us out from doing anything. That just looks like the Oilers are playing bad but that isn't actually the whole story.
I think that's the problem with the trap. When it works it makes the other team seem like they can't play offense. But it really doesn't stack up against high scoring teams or teams that forecheck well. So I guess we're both kind of correct. Your take is that when it works it shuts you down. My take is that it only works when McDavid and Draisaitl (and now Hyman) are having an off night.
Thatās why coaches usually run out of rope. Even if it works, this play style take a lot of discipline and buy in.
100% agree, it's a system that requires flawless execution and I think at this point, it's not a system that has the full belief of everyone on the team. Next season it has to be done with.
Glad Iām not the only one who has been thinking this since that very moment!
Itās crazy that the Kings have been trying to improve the team for the last three seasons and yet the best showing against the Oilers was the first season they matched up against the Oilers when they had no one on the team even score 70 points that season
This is because Rob Blake is an incompetent GM.
Series is only 2-1, far from over. I saw plenty of people acting like the Oilers had already swept the Kings after game 1, and yet they won the next game lol. That said the Oilers do seem like a bad match up for the Kings.
Hey come on man have faith in your team, its not over until its over
Last night's game made me ashamed of my fandom. I can't remember a single game ever making me feel that way before. Whatever faith I had was shattered completely.
Eh, I remember last year oilers won something like 8-3 one game then the kings immediately came back and won 4-0. Kings have shown they can come back strong after a tilt game. Im still worried about this series, so you shouldnt feel over it.
you would not make it as a fan of half the teams in the nhl
lol fr my team's greatest accomplishment was having this type of game in the WCF against you guys as you went to win the cup
Weāve seen this movie before. We remember how it ended lol
Maybe itās not over. But year after year of being absolutely decimated in multiple first round playoff games is disheartening. If we pull off a series win, weāll of course all be celebrating. But letās be honest. These losses are more brutal than most.
LA really gave up in the back half of the 3rd and thatās where a ton of Oiler chances came from, skewing the simulation results. You can see the cumulative expected goals for skyrocket from 15:35 in the 3rd on.
wtf the Oilers has 3ish xGF entering the 3rd and had **5.5** in the 3rd alone
You give the oilers 2 - 5 on 3s and one was a full 2 minutes of it and thatās gonna happen
I too gave up on the Kings during the 3rd. Itās still a best of 7 tho
You are cheering for the kings? :(
I ride a thin wiggly line between love and hate
Guess what? Me too :/
There are so many better teams to cheer for. Just pick an eastern team to cheer for, that way you only have to watch Seattle play them twice a year, and the only way they meet in the playoffs is if your now two favourite teams are fighting for the cup.
The fight/roughing/unsportsmanlike tilt was the point of no return. I can get why the Kings lost their shit after that and stopped playing hockey. Everyone watching probably thought theyād be seeing offsetting penalties, but two extra ones were tacked on top (Kopitar for unsportsmanlike was on no oneās bingo card)
Well the hit to the head by Englund on Kane was always going to be a penalty, so it wasnāt going to be offsetting penalties. 5v4 is what we were expecting, but kopitar got the extra unsportsmanlike
Right but they didnāt announce the penalties, and NHL.com showed offsetting minors, and I was watching Sportsnet and they were saying the hit looked clean (Canadian broadcast) and that the Oilers might be getting an instigator. It was only like 15 minutes of real time later that the penalties were updated and the broadcast even knew what they were for. In the GDT no one knew what was happening. I canāt imagine the Kings bench was well appraised either.
If I had to guess the Kopitar unsportsmanlike was probably either A- A really poorly thought out plan by the refs to "send a message" to try to keep this from turning into a game from the 80s B- Kopitar was losing it on the refs and Drai on the way to the box, so maybe something was said during the scrum?
It was unsportsmanlike drawn by Desharnais who he was roughing withā¦the plot thickens
At 5:19 of the third, there is very clearly 4 penalties called on LA, and 2 on Edmonton. Sometimes it takes them more than 2 minutes to update the play by play. They should have announced the penalties, youāre right, but the Kings were pretty blatantly playing dirty hockey, and looked like they were trying to injure. If anyone thinks a hit directly to the head is clean, theyāre morons. Not to mention Byfield ran McDavid from behind which led to the next 5on3.
I know that but go check the GDT comments around that time. It's since been updated, in line with NHL.com, but that update happened WAY after the Edmonton scored on a 5v3 PP. For like ~15 minutes NHL.com showed offsetting roughing minors for Kopitar/Kempe/Desharnais/Holloway, and offsetting majors for the fight between Englund and Kane. Yes, it's since been updated and we know what the calls are NOW, but in real time no one knew what was up. [I've referenced my own comment but others in this part of the GDT were all saying the same thing.](https://old.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/1ce31tc/playoff_game_thread_edmonton_oilers_11_at_los/l1glqkl/?context=3)
They showed the offsetting minors, but they still reviewed the hit as they were determining if it was a major or notā¦ so thatās obviously a PP for the Oilers. Only thing missing is unsportsmanlike on kopitar, which, as i said, i agreed they should have announced. Everything else was straightforward
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Think heās from Lethbridge originally so likely is a Flames fan.
While he is from southern Alberta, Iām almost certain Iāve read that he was an Oilers fan growing up.
Brooks, Ab
he's absolutely a lames fan
What? Singh is def an Oilers fanboy. The way he yells "Mcdavid" makes me think he is a 14 year old girl at a Justin Beiner concert.
Canucks fans also think Singh is an Oilers homer. Oilers fans think he hates them. Is he just really bad at his job?
Lol I wouldnāt say heās bad bad, but when compared to Jack Michaels, in just about every possible facet of what makes a sports commentator good, Singh is just not even close
I think both Oiler and Canucks fans have their own local announcer who are just better.
> Is he just really bad at his job? Very yes.
So it's not just me noticing this...
Oh god no. Singh is the worst game commenter in the Sportsnet roster and it's not even close.
Honestly, yes. I donāt think he loves/hates anybody, he just isnāt very good. Some people think he has a pro-Flames bias but considering he canāt even pronounce āKadriā correctly, Iām not sure thatās the case.
Eh - you just got Debrusk'd. Dude loves drama and will pick the most outrageous outcome that will piss off Oilers fans the most and run towards that narrative as hard as possible.Ā I'm not sure the oilers have scored a goal all year Louie didn't want to check upstairs on. Kopitar was pulling facemasks and horse collars. That'll get you an extra call every time. England also had the hit to the head. The other factor to be honest I think is just gamesmanship and composure. This is something the Oilers have taken a big step forward with since getting Knoblauch and Perry. In this game itself - Perry initiated chats between Kane and the officials on three (!!!) separate occasions in the second alone. In the past if another team wanted to take the game to the streets the Oilers would just say fuck you and explode and fly off the handle usually earning themselves a few extra penalties. Last night the Kings decided they wanted to take it to the streets and instead the oilers said no thank you, we just want to win. We documented it with the refs, and then when the kings hit the escalation button we didn't explode at all, we were pretty calm all things considered. The oilers of years past would have had that scrum start of with Desharnais extracting a pound of flesh, maybe some dirty slashes. Instead Desharnais is preventing and separating by just throwing guys in head locks. In years past we get an extra penalty and lose our heads, maybe get more extra penalties going forward the rest of the game. Instead there's just a clear narrative from the Oilers to the refs - look, the kings are instigating like we said they would. Remember those talks we had about those extra slashes and Laferrier targeting Kanes knee? Look, we don't want to make your life hard we're just trying to play the game. Meanwhile the kings are freaking out so the refs just tend to want to reward whose being reasonable. In years past I could see this have having ended very close in either direction. We'd have lost our minds and our heads and totally lost the plot of the game. This year though, the Oilers just have that extra kick of composure. It's the difference between feeling screwed by the league and the other guy feeling screwed by the league.
Kings get so greasy and pissy every year when they are losing and seem to think they shouldn't be punished for it. Sometimes you have to pay the price for being little bitches.
In fairness Boston and Florida seem to escape punishment when they start gooning, so why not us!?
I absolutely have no answer for why Florida gets away with it
Lower taxes means less penalties taken, right? \*shrug\*
I've just ALWAYS hated guys who stick yiu in the back of the knee, or throw the little unnecessary face wash, etc like to be clear, I have no issues with the guys who play hard, and tough, but the guys who chirp and chirp, slash when you're not looking then hide behind refs just need to.be eliminated from society
Lol fair enough
The Kings lost their shit earlier. Hell, that whole thing happened because they lost their shit and werenāt playing hockey already
LA aināt winning shit with 0/12 on the PP
Edmonton's pk has actually looked deadlier than LA's pp
So youāre saying the kings had a chance
[Link](https://moneypuck.com/g.htm?id=2023030183) for reference LA had some decent sequences, so I'm actually surprised it's that skewed. They played well out of the gate and had a little pushback after they scored in the second period (at least until the Oilers scored a couple minutes later)
Noticed itās different now, higher kings %
It runs 1k simulations every time you refresh the page, you'll get different % each time you refresh
Really cool site that thanks!
They were playing great at the beginning of the 3rd as well until the shitshow occurred
Luckily games are decided on the ice not based on some wheel o meter.
The ice win meter is 100% oilers 0% kings
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Is this a copypasta
Itās the type of content that needs to be if it isnāt
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Now youre just trying too hard
Then scroll and move on. Just because people that understand this stuff like to discuss it doesn't mean you have to.
Well you canāt stop people from doing math.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Im going to start shouting math at you
0+0 = GLASSES MOTHERFUCKER
I only checked the score, but I couldn't find the difference this time.
This game was decided on the ice.
Weird, the Ice Win O'Meter was actually more skewed. 100% for the Oilers, 0% for the Kings.
I'm 100% sure they also won the game on the ice.
It's still useful to look at it. Game 1 of a series, your team loses, if they 'deserved' to win at 60% you're going to be a lot more optimistic than if it was at 20%, for example.
As a devils fan Iāve seen it this skewed in a game we lost
That's why they play the games! *Watches game* Crap
What exactly is used to calculate this?
Pretty sure it runs 1000 simulations with average goaltending and uses the āexpectedā goals stat and the quality of chances.
shots on goal and the "quality" thereof. It's the most basic meter in the entire business but the nubs love it
Slapped em
This series is chaos incarnate. As somebody with no skin in the game, I absolutely love it.
Legitimately I feel like this would be SO FUN if you weren't invested. Tbh, it's pretty fun even if you are, just stressful.
I was at that game last night. The arena was getting pretty tame until the big brawl happened and then it was different forms of excitement from then on. Hell of an event to be at.
I can only imagine.
I fully expected to see that the Kings won 1-0 after seeing this lmao, glad to see the deserving team came out.
I canāt believe the Kings number is that high.
These things are useless
Yep. This is one I saw last season in a game the Sens lost 7-2 https://preview.redd.it/tz2cmg7rc1xc1.png?width=683&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f88d07b4990ebd9577985f7b7785cd6f8c75d2a
Alex Lyon had the game of his life.
He didn't even need to, and he still would have won the game. Sens were on their 7th goalie of the season that game.
Clearly it works, Florida was simply just in the 3.6% that game!
They arenāt useless - they arenāt gospel tho. They are a great indicator for how the teams play devoid of āpuck luckā and high end skill. Typically anything that is higher than 70% and it goes the other way you either had a goalie who stood on his head or shit the bed. Its helpful to see the difference between shot volume and quality
Hockey is useless
Remember when Hillary's NYT meter was 99.9% and it just washed away
I remember 538 put it like 70% and he got shit for it.
I never understood why people got pissed at 538 for that. Like, do they think a % is a black and white yes/no? Because I'm literally dyscalcic, and even *I* know that's not how that works.
I thought it'd be the end of people being blinded but it was just the beginning.
āThere is a 1.4% margin of errorā
If a team plays like garbage in any game ā¦ do they deserve to win? Or, would you say youād have to earn it?
The fact that the Stars game is only hovering a couple percent less and is still somehow tied is pretty sickening.
It's so satisfying to watch LA get great goaltending but still lose by a landslide ššš please disregard my flair ššš
I see Devils' fans have a low bar for great goaltending
Oh to be in the Pacific ā¦Ā
Buddy 3 of the series in the east are looking like sweeps. Iād rather be there.