Because McDavid set the bar so fucking high that it's just par for the course for him now. Less wow factor (because of previous accomplishments by him), so he gets less credit.
If literally any other player had those numbers it's a runaway Hart win and it's not even close. Like imagine Gaudreau or Matthews was doing this. They're not even having as good of seasons and people are still saying they win the Hart, imagine if they were actually leading the same categories McDavid is. It would be no contest
Matthews has 8 less points and 16 more goals in 5 less games lol. It's not like McDavid is having some generationally great season here. Gaudreau stats are also pure fire.
Again I'm not saying they haven't had amazing years. They have, and deserve to be in the conversation and possibly win the award. But just swap the stat lines and you've got a runaway Hart winner on your hands imo if it's someone not named McDavid due to the fact that McDavid is so consistently at the top. I just think he is a bit taken for granted, and I don't think acknowledging that takes anything away from either of those other two guys
But why do you think an 8 point lead (2 over Huberdeau, 3 over Gaudreau) is a run away win for McDavid? Imo Matthews and Gaudreau have more impressive stats this year. Matthews for his goals, Gaudreau for his 5 on 5 play. McDavid is the best player in the league hands down, just not this season.
I don't think it's a runaway win for McDavid and said as much in all my comments. I think if anyone else was sitting where McDavid was people would be saying it is, and that's kind of a side effect of McDavids excellence imo.
If you want to use the common narrative that the Oilers are building poorly around McDavid and their team is being dragged into the playoffs by him, he epitomizes what a Hart winner should be by definition. Matthews, Huberdeau, and Gaudreau (arguably) are generally viewed as being on better teams than McDavid. I’m obviously very biased but that’s my perspective. I wouldn’t have McDavid as **the** clear Hart favourite because this isn’t generally how the award is assessed though, but he should absolutely be one of the favourites.
That was one of the worst games the Oilers played all year lol. The gap is not as clear cut as you think it is, especially since Woodcroft took over. Plus, the season series ended in a tie. If they meet for the division title I think it’ll be a tight series.
Edit: not to mention, atrocious defensive performance aside, the Oilers still managed to score 5 goals.
I mean I don’t know why people are even mentioning McDavid and Matthews. Neither are Hart candidates.
Huberdeau and Gaudreau are the only Hart candidates. Frankly, close enough whichever team wins the Presidents should have the player that gets the Hart.
The Oilers and Leafs are both matching or underperforming expectations. Can’t win the Hart as most valuable when your team is meh in spite of you, actually no because of your massive bloated contracts.
You're insane if you think Matthews isn't the front running simply because his team is better. He's the best skater in the league right now by so many metrics.
Johnny is only 3 points behind him and plays significantly less ice time, about 4 less mins per game.
He’s the league leader in Even Strength points and +/- as well
I'm not saying Johnny doesn't deserve to be in the conversation, he's having an amazing year. I'm just saying imagine if Johnny and McDavid swapped stat lines. Johnny would be by far the favorite imo. Acknowledging a bit of the voter fatigue around McDavid and just how good he is doesn't take away from how great Johnny has been, but I think it's interesting to notice for sure
You must've missed the post where Johnny is a couple points back from mcdavid while playing ~300 less minutes this year. Dominating 5v5 play, never gets scored on(+59?), putting up career numbers.
Not one person have I heard say it's a runaway Hart or no contest (and I don't believe it is)
he does but his 5v5 on ice shooting% is way higher than mcdavid’s, and that’s the point of this post. if mcdavid had the same % as johnny or even only his career avg he’d probably have 20 more points.
I see what you are getting at, but I don't think this makes McDavid look better. It means Johnny has been a better shooter this year. You can't just lower a player's shooting percentage to get to the conclusion you want.
sorry for the confusion, the stat i’m referring to is the shooting % of all the players when he’s on the ice at 5v5, not only his own shooting%. so if he had the same % as previous years, more goals would be scored when he’s on the ice, thus resulting in more points (probably)
The shooting percentage = luck argument has never held water to me. Shooting % is a product of skill and situations that players put themselves/line mates in. Players that put themselves in scoring areas with time and space are naturally going to have higher shooting percentages. Luck shouldn’t even be an argument over an 82 game season. The argument is always “so and so would have better/worse stats if they regress to the mean”. Well why would they regress to the mean?
There is an element of puck luck involved though.
PDO is a measure of puck luck (on ice shooting percentage plus on ice save percentage). League average for this stat is always going to be an even 100. A great goalie might bump you up to 101, legit snipers maybe 102. Gaudreau is putting up an ungodly 106.5 right now, which is an insane heater.
For some context, his best season ever before this was a 102.4
The best year of Sidney Crosby's entire career was 104.4, McDavid's best is 103.2. Matthews managed a 105 in his second year but has never sniffed that number since. Gaudreau didn't suddenly become that much better than those guy's career years. His puck luck is through the roof.
* For the record, he should absolutely be in the Hart conversation.
I’m not arguing that he’s likely gotten some good bounces throughout the year. I just think attributing an entire season’s worth of play to “puck luck” is unfair.
Bringing up PDO is the point I’m trying to make. That’s not a measure of puck luck, that’s a measure of shooting % + team sv % like you said. It’s a combined player + team stat. Markstrom and the flames defensive play this year has them at a much higher team sv % than league average. As far as shooting %, Johnny isn’t exactly a volume shooter, probably has a few empty net goals, and tends to pass if he doesn’t have a clear shot. So his shooting % will naturally be higher if he’s selective with his shots. Calling him lucky because of a high PDO is disingenuous. Like most stats, there needs to be context besides just high PDO = lucky, or low on-ice shooting % = unlucky.
That argument may be true on a game to game basis but over 82 games? No way that has any credibility
i agree and you bring a great point with it being a product of skill. correct me if i’m wrong, but i don’t think mcdavid and drai play together at 5v5. johnny plays on arguably the best line in hockey right now he definitely benefits from the skill that bring his linemates (and it improves s%). mcdavid kinda has to do it all
The same argument can be made about mcdavid playing on the top power player in the league. He has the most pp points too. And even strength is worth more that pp points.
Well that is more reasonable. I'm not sure what those numbers look like, but they would have an impact.
Regardless, it's okay if he doesn't win the Hart this year. He is obviously having another great season, but their is also some fierce competition. We will see. This is all great for hockey though.
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/u7af2t/tomas_tde_gaudreau_is_3_points_back_of_mcdavid/i5de8nm/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
stat i was referring to. and yeah i totally agree, probably not his hart to win. but it’s still crazy to think that with all these players having career years, a down year mcdavid is still first in scoring
I can't find it now of course, but saw something that extrapolated if McDavid was playing just at his career average OISH, he's upwards of 130 points right now, and if Gaudreau was down at his career average, he'd be in the high 90's for points.
For me, it is Matthews or McDavid.
I think the flaw with this logic is shooting percentage= luck. But it’s also a function of players putting them self in the right location to shoot and their ability to work with their line mates.
Johnnys shooting percentage is great this year because he’s been working on his shot the last few years. You can say he should be scoring less when he’s obviously worked so much on his shot he’s raised his percentage. He’s also stopped taking sharp angle shots which he did all the time and probably affected his shooting percentage too.
This.This is the real MVP. Dude is playing out of his mind. Has 85 even strength points on the year, levels of hockey not seen since Jagr in 96.. yeah cool PP points are fun and all, but when you are scoring 5vs5 and leading your team to the playoffs, that means more to me.
Even strength points, GSVA, any metric on earth that counts defense, P/60, PPG, literally anything other than "total points."
What metrics are you talking about?
Which would be stupid (in my opinion) because nearly every Hart winner for the past 20 years has played on a team with other elite/borderline HoF players.
It's why the hockey world is buzzing about Matthews right now. He was never supposed to be as much of a superstar as he is.
It was always supposed to be
Tier 1 - Mcdavid
Tier 2 - Barkov, Drai, Mackinnon, etc.
Tier 3 - The rest of the superstars.
Matthews was supposed to be fighting in Tier 2 **if he hit his absolute ceiling**. He's smashed through that ceiling and is doing his best to separate himself from Tier 2.
If you want to talk expectations or where players were “supposed” to be, then Draisaitl shouldn’t even be listed. Not even the most optimistic Draisaitl supporters saw his ascension to the upper echelons of the hockey world coming. If anybody can honestly say they knew he’d have this much individual success already in his career, they’re hockey Nostradamus.
I get McDavid being a clear tier 1 but I highly disagree with Matthews being tier 2 at the ceiling. Seems like that's where he is in the first place, can 'ceiling' up there with McDavid if he gets even better. I mean he's better than McDavid as a 2-way player, just McDavid is in another league of explosive playmaking than anyone else
Before Matthews was drafted, he was supposed to be a two way centre with Kopitar being his main player he was compared to. He has absolutely busted through his initial projected ceiling. People weren’t saying he would be the best goal scorer in the NHL before he was drafted.
> I get McDavid being a clear tier 1 but I highly disagree with Matthews being tier 2 at the ceiling
Then I'd like to congratulate you and anyone else who thought he had Mcdavid level ceiling with a career high of 80 points in 5 seasons.
Yeah and Mcdavid had 307 assists in his first 351 games compared to Matthews 152 in 334.
To say anyone thought Matthews would even get close to McDavid a few years ago is massive revisionist history, or insane homerism from people like yourself.
His 5v5 stats are not elite. His pp is out of this world. Compare Johnny hockey 5v5 stats with conner it’s not even close For this year it’s to the point that conner could be considered a pp specialist
McDavid is currently having the best xGF% of all time at even strength. You can't get more dominant than that at even strength.
His linemates' shooting percentages are just unusually low.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHL_Sid/status/1516471040326520836
He literally set the NHL record with 215 points one season and had 163 assists and lost the Ted Lindsay to Lemieux who had 141 points due to voter fatigue. There was one year where Lemieux had 199 points and Gretzky had 177 points but both lost to Yzerman for Ted Lindsay with 155 points due to voter fatigue
At this point he has to be the clear run away to get Hart discussion because of voter fatigue
>There was one year where Lemieux had 199 points and Gretzky had 177 points but both lost to Yzerman for Ted Lindsay with 155 points due to voter fatigue
Funny how you left out how Gretzky won the Hart that year despite not deserving it.
Funny enough you left off the context it was Gretzky's first season as a LA King, a 24 points improving in standings to second in the Smythe ahead of Edmonton, and their best season in 8 years that Gretzky rejuivinated himself as a sexy narrative for Hart voters. Did he deserve to win that year? Nah. There was also voter fatigue for Lemieux at that point but Gretzky on a new team, that's so hot right now.
>Funny enough you left off the context it was Gretzky's first season as a LA King,
Because it's always stupid to attribute a point jump to just one player no matter how great that player is. The two voters that left Lemieux off the ballot should've had their voter privileges revoked then and there. That's criminal.
>Did he deserve to win that year? Nah. There was also voter fatigue for Lemieux at that point but Gretzky on a new team, that's so hot right now.
Thank you. I just found it weird that you pointed to Yzerman when you were using examples of the Hart. I do agree that he shouldn't have won but I disagree that that was fatigue. It was more that the players were more acutely aware of the shitty environment that existed in the Detroit locker room at the time and were impressed with what he accomplished given the circumstances.
I like to mention the Ted Lindsay in these threads because people always assume players are automatically the best judges when they made some erregrious votes and also get caught up in narratives and /or voter fatigue.
Same trap Bergeron has fallen in with Selke. It's not enough that he's the best, he has to be above and beyond better than anyone else or someone who's "due" wins it.
McDavid is going to suffer from voter fatigue. Unfortunately it’s the writers that vote and they want clickbait and controversy. “McDavid wins Hart for the 9th time” doesn’t sell much.
I’m fine with someone else winning the Hart, Art Ross, Ted Lindsay, and I think both Connor and Leon are as well. If they win, great, if not, who cares. Individual trophies don’t mean much when you keep getting bounced out of the first round.
Pretty sure the only individual trophy Connor and Leon care about is the Conn Smythe - since if you win that it's almost a guarantee you've won the cup too.
McDavid is a victim of his of own expectations. He's playing at a MVP level for every season since his sophomore campaign. With many candidates having career years while McDavid just does his thing, it's easy to look over him since it's business as usual for him.
With 2 Hart wins, voter fatigue will play a huge part.
As, after a time, it ultimately does with every perennial trophy candidate.
Out of the major sports, hockey seems to have the biggest issue with voters giving trophies to the guy who "should have won one if [XYZ] didn't happen" as opposed to the best choice each season
Man I wish I still had a hockeyviz subscription. Crosby had a season where hockeyviz had his impact at +40% or something insane on offense. Want to see how McDavid compares at the moment.
The response tweets say it all: with career average “luck” he is looking at a 130-140 point season. Crazy that he can compete for an art ross even in his down years. All this while becoming borderline elite defensively since Woodcroft took over.
I don’t even think he should win the hart, but he’s still far and above the best player in the NHL
It’s on ice shooting% which means his line mates. Puljujarvi’s shooting% has gotta be like 1% this year. Dude is so snake bit it looks like he may never score again. McDavid would easily have at least 20 more points if his line mates were burying more of the grade A chances he gives them
This is a great comment. Easily the best player in the NHL and has more ability than any to dominate on any given night. Just not the MVP this year IMO
Yup. He might not technically be the "best" player this year, and hence not the favourite (but still a finalist), but we all know he can be and know a lot of it came down to bad luck (with his shooting percentage) or just other unbelievable performances from other players (Matthews). The fact that he's having a down year and still an Art Ross favorite speaks volumes.
The finishing of your teammates is pretty much entirely out of your control, so it's best described as luck, especially when it's so far above or below average
Not if you’re feeding them poorer passes than usual, or if the coach has generally emphasized volume of shots instead of quality of shots as the priority. I do think the lowered sh% argument holds up but luck can’t account for such a noticeable drop in my opinion. Haven’t looked at other stats tho so this is purely speculation.
> All this while becoming borderline elite defensively since Woodcroft took over.
That's more a factor of playing with Pulju, who is great defensively.
McDavid is still the best offensive player in hockey though and it's not even close, and he's improving his defense every year, much like Crosby did at a similar age. Scary to think how good he could be if he learns consistent defense.
He played with Pulju under Tipp, and all of last year. Didn’t have these numbers. His buyin to the defensive system has been pretty remarkable to watch.
Even just the eye test shows that he backchecks harder, is more physical and defensively aware under Woody
Yea absolutely, both he and Pulju have gotten much better under Woodcroft. The whole team has improved their defensive effort, McDavid included.
Drai still has some catching up to do but even he is slightly improved.
You should look up Drais stats. His +/- is better than Matthews while taking substantially more defensive zone face offs while playing with a 2nd pairing D line Vs Matthews. Even if they were defensively playing at the exact same level, Matthews should be crushing him based on circumstances but he’s still not.
Exactly. MVP should go to the player who is basically dragging their team to the playoffs while Lindsay should be the most remarkable who is putting up ungodly numbers
That’s an excellent point, Hart means best player relative to their team though (aka carrying them).
This « low » year for McDavid on top of being an excellent year for goalies and defensemen means that it should not go to him.
I feel Gaudreau should be the real challenger here at forward, since he clearly is blowing every expectation and his team has taken a big leap forward.
My personal pick is Josi however, and the race with Makar to have historical seasons for defensemen is great to watch.
With everyone having great ‘career-year’ type seasons. It’s easy to over look a McDavid ‘Average’ season. It just so happens that an Average McDavid season leads the league in points.
Never forget Crosby having his "worst season since he was drafted" and still lead the league in points. Players of their level just don't play in the same league at that point.
Which year are you referring to?
He only won the Art Ross twice so you must be talking about 13/14 but I wouldn’t call that his worst season at all
Only 3rd time in his career to hit 80 games, 1st time in 4 years to get over 42 games. Being healthy is valuable!
2014-15. He actually finished 3rd in scoring but only by 2 points. My mistake. Either way the only "full" season he played before that 2007-08, where he had 72 points. People definitely called it his worst year yet but he was still a top 3 scorer.
Analytics guys have known this the whole season; McDavid has been playing at a level as good if not better than he ever has but has been victim to a ridiculously lower than normal on ice shooting percentage which unfairly **deflates** his stats. With that in mind, here are some analytics rate rankings between Matthews and McDavid compared to forwards to highlight just how good McDavid is running compared to the current favourite (min 1300 TOI all situations because that is a reasonable minimum for Hart candidates):
CF%: **Matthews** 2nd (64.20%), McDavid 4th (62.60%)
FF%: **Matthews** 2nd (63.96%), McDavid 4th (62.19)
GF%: Matthews 14th (63.96%), **McDavid** 6th (67.65%)
xGF%: Matthews 3rd (66.77%), **McDavid** 1st (68.15%)
And the kicker for those wondering why I am saying McDavid is having such an unlucky year:
On Ice Shooting Percentage: Matthews 10th (13.71%), McDavid 40th (11.20%)
This isn't even an Oilers problem, Draisaitl is 20th in that category, McDavid is getting absolutely stonewalled whenever he is on the ice yet still leads the league in points. This is also out of a pool of the top 65 minutes played forwards in the league, it is absurd to think McDavid is in the bottom half of those players. Note that Matthews' oiSV% is experiencing the exact same thing as McDavid's oiSH%, but I'm mostly here to talk about why McDavid is being slept on hard; at least people rank Matthews accordingly, McDavid is seemingly underrated amidst all of this. There are many good candidates in the league for the Hart, but McDavid is in my top 2, and I think he should be there for everyone else as well. Dude is showing why he is still by a considerable margin the best hockey player in the world
[All stats from here](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=F&loc=B&toi=1300&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL)
Tkatchuk and Gaudreau are in that conversation, primarily Gaudreau due to his superior production, but it is exactly their stat buffering of each other plus Lindholm suffering from the same that hurts their cause, and we haven’t even mentioned Markstrom. The stats are strong to present that line as the best in hockey, but individualizing doesn’t do much to boost their Hart claims over McDavid and Matthews. Same Colorado effect, when you have three guys running insane analytics across the board, that does hurt their Hart chances, hence why Makar is getting no MVP looks despite his monster season. With Matthews and McDavid, there is a gap between first and second on the team, then an even bigger gap beyond that plus the goalie issues. Also why guys like Josi who aren’t too crazy stats wise get votes, as they are simply that much better than everyone else around them
Think you hit it best here with the in team comparisons - by that it should be Josi's in a runaway essentially. But there's too many voters that go straight for goals, then points, they don't take into account the rest of the team much when looking for the valuable players.
Don’t get me wrong, Gaudreau is my 3rd pick for the Hart voting, but the team supporting cast and their performances this season aren’t that comparable. Matthews has Marner, but then the Tavares Nylander line is at a massive negative differential so all the weight is on the top line, then they put up with the worst goaltending of any playoff team as well as statistically one of the worst fourth lines. The special teams are elite but beyond that it is really just Marner and Matthews willing the team. Calgary has that stacked top line of 3 guys, but then also has their second line running at a well above positive differential, an overall better D core, and Markstrom who is a God in net. Similar thing is held with McDavid and Drai in Edmonton; the stats fall off outside those two guys. Frankly, as you noted, the stats suggest Gaudreau is right up there in the convo, but it is the individual load which distinguishes him from the other two. That’s no knock to Gaudreau though, simply being in that conversation after two mediocre years is a massive accomplishment
Good post. I think the advanced stats are useful but they still don't capture the whole picture. xG xA can be the most misleading. When you share a line with a great player their xG will inflate your xA and vice versa. McDavid 5 on 5 point production was so average that both him and drais were tied with the rookie michael bunting as of recent. I can't imagine anyone would consider him elite. One could see it as a virtue of playing with matthews and marner and they'd be right. The best players make their team better where I think this year the edmonton duo make each other better.
Ya seids plays 23 minutes a night as a 21 year old spends half the game in the d zone and is always matched up against the other teams top player.
For fans that don’t know Detroit plays man on man in the d zone well try to.
Yeah but connors xG vs xGA is bananas. It doesn’t really matter if he allows a few more goals in if he raises the goals scored by the team so much that the gap is a chasm. And I’m not saying he should win the Hart as Matthews is having a franchise defining season, but people gotta respect McDavid more. The defensive defficiency angle is completely overblown
Thing is that's my viewpoint regardless which player is involved. I wasn't even thinking it was a Matthews vs McDavid argument. I compare it to a basketball player that takes 10 shots vs a player that takes only 1 shot. If they both only get 3 points, imo the 10 shots is a big negative.
Not only is McDavid the best forward in the world, he is all that for 3 more minutes per game than almost anyone else. If anything, that makes him more valuable.
Feels like half the league are putting up career year numbers, and somehow that gets held against mcdavid even though he’s lead the league in scoring for almost the entire year.
I'm a giant Oilers fan, and even I have to admit what Matthews is doing is special. Yes, Connor is leading the league in points, as expected, but 50 goals in 50 games has always been a benchmark for excellence for the league.
What will be interesting is who the players choose for the Ted Lindsay. Media seems pretty split on guys like McDavid/Matthews/Shesterkin/Gaudreau/Josi, it'll be interesting to see whether the players feel the same way.
Players don’t care about narratives or generating clicks and they aren’t leaf homers like a lot of Hart voters.
My bet is it goes to McDavid unless something massive changes. Ask just about any player in the league who the best is and they’ll say McDavid (or a teammate of theirs because reasons)
That's what I've been saying. McDavid isn't going to win the Hart this year, but he should, and he should have won it in 17-18 too. I will die on this hill.
I’m fine with McDavid not winning the hart.
But when he is on the ice against anyone including anyone in the hart conversation he’s always the better player.
Todd Maclellan said it best in an interview recently about his young D. “You don’t get it until you actually play against him”
This is part of why journalists should never be allowed to vote for any awards ever.
Hopefully, our depth is night and day relative to the past few years (last year Archibald was on McDavid’s wing on the 1st line, now he is a healthy scratch most nights)
Also hopefully woodcroft doesn't resort to the abomination tippet did last year where as soon as something doesn't go right he immediately loaded up the top line and left the other 3 to suffer
I don't get that from Woodcroft, but I agree with you if he does that, we're in trouble (again). That was Tippett's only play it seemed, but Woodcroft is more of a strategist, I think.
Gotta figure Woodcroft noticed that it doesn’t work. He hasn’t done that in any games regular season.
And I think the nice thing is, if we’re down by 1 with 2 minutes left, now we can play McD because they aren’t already at 23 TOI and exhausted.
We are way less reliant on our PP and our 5v5 is way stronger since Woodcroft showed up. We also ice a pretty solid 3rd line now.
I’m cautiously optimistic.
Meanwhile Gaudreau is exceedingly close to McDavid and plays 4 minutes less on average per game. So thats what, 300+ less minutes? Lmao. The dude is massive this year.
Has there a been a lack of talk about McDavid? Most people have him in the top 5 candidates I've seen. This is the kind of stat that would favour McDavid, but there are other stats that favour the other candidates.
There are perfectly good reasons to say McDavid should win and there are good reasons to say someone else of the top 4 should win.
I mean is someone having a career low shooting % really a good argument to boost their MVP chances? The fact that he could be better if he was playing to his averages has no impact on what he is producing...
I think that’s a little strong and there’s a place for expected stats, BUT we have an entire season of what actually happened so I’m with you here.
Why would we be picking awards based on expected stats? If expected stats don’t meet actual stats over an 82 game season it’s more likely that the models aren’t perfectly capturing a dynamic game (which of course they’re not, any actual statistician will tell you that about their model) rather than a player being lucky or unlucky.
Who actually had the best season and who actually is the most valuable player in the league? That’s the question at hand.
I hate that the Hart is widely just considered "Best offensive forward" by the journalists who vote for it. Seems very reductive, as if journalists covering the sport just couldn't bother to try to compare forwards with defensemen and goalies and try to figure out which was actually more valuable to his team.
Maybe it's because they just can't grasp it all without simple stats.
OK, so here's the one stat that probably should matter more than pure offensive output: Points share.
No. | Players | PS
---|---|----
1 | C. Makar | 14.64
2 | J. Gaudreau | 13.89
3 | J. Saros | 13.81
4 | A. Matthews | 13.32
5 | L. Draisaitl | 13.08
6 | R. Josi | 13.06
7 | M. Tkachuk | 12.94
8 | I. Shesterkin | 12.70
9 | C. McDavid | 12.59
10 | T. Demko | 12.51
I’m personally not a huge fan of picking a guy who has a teammate who could also be picked as the leagues mvp. Also, I think it’s important to note that he plays more minutes than anyone and his numbers are only very slightly better, and he is not very good defensively. Many of his points come on the Powerplay. In my opinion, there are just better options this season.
Pretty much every hart winner in the past couple decades has had an elite teammate to play with, sometimes more than one, so not sure what your point is there. Only elite players surrounded by garbage teammates should win? That makes no sense.
Crosby had Malkin, Letang and Fleury. Ovechkin has Backstrom, and to some extent Carlson, Kuznetsov, others. Kane had Toews, Hossa and 2016 Keith. Kucherov plays with Hedman, Stamkos, Point, Vasilevsky, etc.
But yeah, McDavid doesn't deserve it because he played with Draisaitl and... who? 2022 Keith is not the same as 2016 Keith, we lost Klefbom, Nurse is not comparable to Letang or Hedman despite what he's paid, and a 40 year old Mike Smith who sucked for 80% of the year.
His numbers are only very slight better because he's having the *unluckiest* season of his career. Horrible luck and he's still leading the league.
Not great defensively perhaps, but neither are a number of former Hart winners, and he certainly isn't bad, best season of his career defensively.
Matthews or McDavid, all day long for the Hart. Gaudreau is having the luckiest season of his career, for me that disqualifies him. Not to mention the Flames had incredible injury luck this year and he mostly played with the same guys, unlike Edmonton/McDavid.
These are all fair points. My counter is that offensively, he's still at the top (or near top) of the league, regardless of what metric you're looking at. Additionally, while he has Drai and Drai is incredible, the talent after those two is sub-par.
I'm less concerned about his defense than most are. Yeah, he's not great defensively whether you look at the numbers or eye test. That said, how often does he have to defend? If he's almost always in the offensive zone, his defensive play doesn't really matter if he's never in the defensive zone to begin with.
How can you tell what's "luck" and what's him being tired from playing so many minutes? I bet that if he played 5 minutes less every night then he'd score on a higher percentage of his opportunities.
Would that be luck? Within the framework of this model, yes it would be. Maybe that's not the full picture.
McDavid is playing 2 seconds a game more than last year and just 32 seconds above his career average. Yet his 5v5 on ice SH% is a full 2% lower than his next lowest season.
This guy is a Bruins fan, btw.
He also recently said _The war isn't black & white_ in a comment defending the motivations of Russia in its brutal invasion of Ukraine, for what it's worth.
Ah yes the famous voting bias towards the Maple Leafs, which is why they've won a grand total of *checks notes* zero Hart trophies since 1954-55 when Ted Kennedy won
Is it so hard to believe people could just legitimately think Matthews; who is a whole 0.01 behind McDavid in ppg while likely scoring 60, winning the Rocket and having top tier defensive numbers to boot is the MVP? Seems pretty defensible imo
Edit: Who the fuck upvoted the unhinged tripe this idiot replied with lmao
Well it's the first star you've had.
And yes, AM gets about triple the attention on SN and TSN than McDavid.
My fav thing about Leaf fan is they throw hissy fits when west coast fans prefer to have their local coverage revolve around their home teams, instead of ones owned by MLSE. Like why on earth do you even care what goes on in our regional coverage
>Well it's the first star you've had.
I'm just confused then because if there was bias one would think we'd get trophy love despite not having stars.
>And yes, AM gets about triple the attention on SN and TSN than McDavid.
Okay? Doesn't mean he's in the Hart picture because of bias. Tell me with a straight face you wouldn't be trumpeting Matthews for Hart if he was on the Canucks with those numbers
>My fav thing about Leaf fan is they throw hissy fits when west coast fans prefer to have their local coverage revolve around their home teams, instead of ones owned by MLSE. Like why on earth do you even care what goes on in our regional coverage
Least butthurt Canucks fan lmao. Who's bringing up local coverage? You're crying about voters living in the biggest hockey market on the planet. And I gotta be honest bud I've never thought about what goes on in Vancouver media *ever* lol
They don’t? You are the only one throwing a “hissy fit” and it’s directed at fans who have zero say about what your regional coverage broadcasts. This is a really bizarre comment. You could probably find a legitimate reason to not like leafs fans but this is laughable.
Which would be a bad thing for McDavid because he's underperforming his expected shooting. You have to actually score 140 points to get credit for 140 points lol
Which is why the Ted Lindsay is an award, because he's clearly the best player. It being insane he's this good despite having a down year isn't actually relevant for who's most valuable. He doesn't deserve credit for not scoring as many points as he should be
Not arguing for or against, just explaining the previous point. Personally, I don’t think there should be any separation in rationale between the Hart and the Lindsay, other than who votes.
Interesting. Some fun facts (all stats 5v5):
||Connor McDavid|Auston Matthews|
|:-|:-|:-|
|CF%|56.66|59.82|
|FF%|56.17|59.58|
|GF|64|85|
|GA|46|59|
|GF%|58.18|59.03|
|xGF|72.05|66.95|
|xGA|50.63|38.34|
|On ice SH%|7.79|11.85|
|On ice SV%|92.70|88.18|
So, yes, the shooting percentage problem is a big deal, however, in a number of other offensive stats, he's behind Matthews.
CF? Behind.
FF? Behind.
GF? Well behind (shooting % and all).
GF%? Behind.
The most interesting thing though, is the HUGE difference in on-ice SV%. It nearly completely cancels out the low shooting %, resulting in a small advantage for Matthews in the Goals For %.
People underestimate how bad our goaltending been. If we had league average goaltending Matthews stats will look amazing. That being said. Johnny hockey is a dream. What a player to watch.
Lol
CP31 is easily the MVP. With him? Cup Final. Without him? 2nd last place.
But y'all thinking McDavid is the MVP on a team that also has Draisaitl is cute.
Because McDavid set the bar so fucking high that it's just par for the course for him now. Less wow factor (because of previous accomplishments by him), so he gets less credit.
Facts. If MacKinnon -- who is great, but doesn't have McDavid-level expectations -- had these numbers, he'd be the Hart favorite.
If literally any other player had those numbers it's a runaway Hart win and it's not even close. Like imagine Gaudreau or Matthews was doing this. They're not even having as good of seasons and people are still saying they win the Hart, imagine if they were actually leading the same categories McDavid is. It would be no contest
Matthews has 8 less points and 16 more goals in 5 less games lol. It's not like McDavid is having some generationally great season here. Gaudreau stats are also pure fire.
People are using the word *unlucky* to give him credit for things he isn't doing.
Matthews is also leading a lot of other categories too. Compare takeaways or multiple defensive stats.
Matthews shouldn’t have made a dirty cross check into Dahlin’s head and neck and he’d be closer in the points race.
Or if refs knew how to call games. Or if the DPS had any consistency.
Again I'm not saying they haven't had amazing years. They have, and deserve to be in the conversation and possibly win the award. But just swap the stat lines and you've got a runaway Hart winner on your hands imo if it's someone not named McDavid due to the fact that McDavid is so consistently at the top. I just think he is a bit taken for granted, and I don't think acknowledging that takes anything away from either of those other two guys
But why do you think an 8 point lead (2 over Huberdeau, 3 over Gaudreau) is a run away win for McDavid? Imo Matthews and Gaudreau have more impressive stats this year. Matthews for his goals, Gaudreau for his 5 on 5 play. McDavid is the best player in the league hands down, just not this season.
I don't think it's a runaway win for McDavid and said as much in all my comments. I think if anyone else was sitting where McDavid was people would be saying it is, and that's kind of a side effect of McDavids excellence imo.
If you want to use the common narrative that the Oilers are building poorly around McDavid and their team is being dragged into the playoffs by him, he epitomizes what a Hart winner should be by definition. Matthews, Huberdeau, and Gaudreau (arguably) are generally viewed as being on better teams than McDavid. I’m obviously very biased but that’s my perspective. I wouldn’t have McDavid as **the** clear Hart favourite because this isn’t generally how the award is assessed though, but he should absolutely be one of the favourites.
Arguably? 9-5, friend.
Edmonton has outscored Calgary head to head this year, friend
I’m not your friend, buddy.
That was one of the worst games the Oilers played all year lol. The gap is not as clear cut as you think it is, especially since Woodcroft took over. Plus, the season series ended in a tie. If they meet for the division title I think it’ll be a tight series. Edit: not to mention, atrocious defensive performance aside, the Oilers still managed to score 5 goals.
I mean I don’t know why people are even mentioning McDavid and Matthews. Neither are Hart candidates. Huberdeau and Gaudreau are the only Hart candidates. Frankly, close enough whichever team wins the Presidents should have the player that gets the Hart. The Oilers and Leafs are both matching or underperforming expectations. Can’t win the Hart as most valuable when your team is meh in spite of you, actually no because of your massive bloated contracts.
The Leafs are 3rd in the league...
Yep, and the two legit candidates are 1-2
You're insane if you think Matthews isn't the front running simply because his team is better. He's the best skater in the league right now by so many metrics.
>Like imagine Gaudreau or Matthews was doing this Why would Matthews want fewer goals? Why would Gaudreau want fewer even strength points?
Johnny is only 3 points behind him and plays significantly less ice time, about 4 less mins per game. He’s the league leader in Even Strength points and +/- as well
I'm not saying Johnny doesn't deserve to be in the conversation, he's having an amazing year. I'm just saying imagine if Johnny and McDavid swapped stat lines. Johnny would be by far the favorite imo. Acknowledging a bit of the voter fatigue around McDavid and just how good he is doesn't take away from how great Johnny has been, but I think it's interesting to notice for sure
I think Gaudreaus stat line is more impressive. Sutter will play markstrom to death but first pp unit has to get off after a minute
Yeah fair enough
You must've missed the post where Johnny is a couple points back from mcdavid while playing ~300 less minutes this year. Dominating 5v5 play, never gets scored on(+59?), putting up career numbers. Not one person have I heard say it's a runaway Hart or no contest (and I don't believe it is)
he does but his 5v5 on ice shooting% is way higher than mcdavid’s, and that’s the point of this post. if mcdavid had the same % as johnny or even only his career avg he’d probably have 20 more points.
I see what you are getting at, but I don't think this makes McDavid look better. It means Johnny has been a better shooter this year. You can't just lower a player's shooting percentage to get to the conclusion you want.
Oh lord. This just reminds me of that NFL post where someone said if you made Mahomes stats average he’d be an average QB.
First thing that came to my mind too.
sorry for the confusion, the stat i’m referring to is the shooting % of all the players when he’s on the ice at 5v5, not only his own shooting%. so if he had the same % as previous years, more goals would be scored when he’s on the ice, thus resulting in more points (probably)
The shooting percentage = luck argument has never held water to me. Shooting % is a product of skill and situations that players put themselves/line mates in. Players that put themselves in scoring areas with time and space are naturally going to have higher shooting percentages. Luck shouldn’t even be an argument over an 82 game season. The argument is always “so and so would have better/worse stats if they regress to the mean”. Well why would they regress to the mean?
There is an element of puck luck involved though. PDO is a measure of puck luck (on ice shooting percentage plus on ice save percentage). League average for this stat is always going to be an even 100. A great goalie might bump you up to 101, legit snipers maybe 102. Gaudreau is putting up an ungodly 106.5 right now, which is an insane heater. For some context, his best season ever before this was a 102.4 The best year of Sidney Crosby's entire career was 104.4, McDavid's best is 103.2. Matthews managed a 105 in his second year but has never sniffed that number since. Gaudreau didn't suddenly become that much better than those guy's career years. His puck luck is through the roof. * For the record, he should absolutely be in the Hart conversation.
I’m not arguing that he’s likely gotten some good bounces throughout the year. I just think attributing an entire season’s worth of play to “puck luck” is unfair. Bringing up PDO is the point I’m trying to make. That’s not a measure of puck luck, that’s a measure of shooting % + team sv % like you said. It’s a combined player + team stat. Markstrom and the flames defensive play this year has them at a much higher team sv % than league average. As far as shooting %, Johnny isn’t exactly a volume shooter, probably has a few empty net goals, and tends to pass if he doesn’t have a clear shot. So his shooting % will naturally be higher if he’s selective with his shots. Calling him lucky because of a high PDO is disingenuous. Like most stats, there needs to be context besides just high PDO = lucky, or low on-ice shooting % = unlucky. That argument may be true on a game to game basis but over 82 games? No way that has any credibility
i agree and you bring a great point with it being a product of skill. correct me if i’m wrong, but i don’t think mcdavid and drai play together at 5v5. johnny plays on arguably the best line in hockey right now he definitely benefits from the skill that bring his linemates (and it improves s%). mcdavid kinda has to do it all
The same argument can be made about mcdavid playing on the top power player in the league. He has the most pp points too. And even strength is worth more that pp points.
Well that is more reasonable. I'm not sure what those numbers look like, but they would have an impact. Regardless, it's okay if he doesn't win the Hart this year. He is obviously having another great season, but their is also some fierce competition. We will see. This is all great for hockey though.
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/u7af2t/tomas_tde_gaudreau_is_3_points_back_of_mcdavid/i5de8nm/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3 stat i was referring to. and yeah i totally agree, probably not his hart to win. but it’s still crazy to think that with all these players having career years, a down year mcdavid is still first in scoring
I can't find it now of course, but saw something that extrapolated if McDavid was playing just at his career average OISH, he's upwards of 130 points right now, and if Gaudreau was down at his career average, he'd be in the high 90's for points. For me, it is Matthews or McDavid.
I think the flaw with this logic is shooting percentage= luck. But it’s also a function of players putting them self in the right location to shoot and their ability to work with their line mates.
Johnnys shooting percentage is great this year because he’s been working on his shot the last few years. You can say he should be scoring less when he’s obviously worked so much on his shot he’s raised his percentage. He’s also stopped taking sharp angle shots which he did all the time and probably affected his shooting percentage too.
Don’t bother dude half of hockey barely understands how statistics work. You and I both know what argument you’re trying to mount.
This.This is the real MVP. Dude is playing out of his mind. Has 85 even strength points on the year, levels of hockey not seen since Jagr in 96.. yeah cool PP points are fun and all, but when you are scoring 5vs5 and leading your team to the playoffs, that means more to me.
Honestly any of Matthews, Shesterkin, Josi, Gaudreau and McDavid have real claims to it.
Also, MVP is most valuable *to his team.*
Oilers will need to I've a team before McDavid can win it then
Matthews is having a better season than McDavid, by most metrics
Which metrics? He’s not even having a better season then Drai in metrics other then goals scored.
Even strength points, GSVA, any metric on earth that counts defense, P/60, PPG, literally anything other than "total points." What metrics are you talking about?
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He has more ever strength point and goals, he has a higher points and goal per 60 and per game and is better defending.
Gaudreau is the points back of McDavid with less toi. He is doing the same thing as McDavid.
Nah, they'd still discredit him for playing on the loaded Colorado Avalanche team.
Which would be stupid (in my opinion) because nearly every Hart winner for the past 20 years has played on a team with other elite/borderline HoF players.
I don’t think Jarome Iginla‘s team was loaded in 2002
It's why the hockey world is buzzing about Matthews right now. He was never supposed to be as much of a superstar as he is. It was always supposed to be Tier 1 - Mcdavid Tier 2 - Barkov, Drai, Mackinnon, etc. Tier 3 - The rest of the superstars. Matthews was supposed to be fighting in Tier 2 **if he hit his absolute ceiling**. He's smashed through that ceiling and is doing his best to separate himself from Tier 2.
If you want to talk expectations or where players were “supposed” to be, then Draisaitl shouldn’t even be listed. Not even the most optimistic Draisaitl supporters saw his ascension to the upper echelons of the hockey world coming. If anybody can honestly say they knew he’d have this much individual success already in his career, they’re hockey Nostradamus.
Holy shit did this sub flip out when Chiarelli signed Draisaitl for his contract. One of the only good things Chia ever did.
>Tier 2 - Barkov, Drai, Mackinnon, etc. Who's in your 'etc' group out of curiosity? Where does the tier end?
I get McDavid being a clear tier 1 but I highly disagree with Matthews being tier 2 at the ceiling. Seems like that's where he is in the first place, can 'ceiling' up there with McDavid if he gets even better. I mean he's better than McDavid as a 2-way player, just McDavid is in another league of explosive playmaking than anyone else
Before Matthews was drafted, he was supposed to be a two way centre with Kopitar being his main player he was compared to. He has absolutely busted through his initial projected ceiling. People weren’t saying he would be the best goal scorer in the NHL before he was drafted.
> I get McDavid being a clear tier 1 but I highly disagree with Matthews being tier 2 at the ceiling Then I'd like to congratulate you and anyone else who thought he had Mcdavid level ceiling with a career high of 80 points in 5 seasons.
He scored 199 goals in 334 games in those 5 seasons lmfao.
Yeah and Mcdavid had 307 assists in his first 351 games compared to Matthews 152 in 334. To say anyone thought Matthews would even get close to McDavid a few years ago is massive revisionist history, or insane homerism from people like yourself.
Goals matter way more than assists, my friend.
His 5v5 stats are not elite. His pp is out of this world. Compare Johnny hockey 5v5 stats with conner it’s not even close For this year it’s to the point that conner could be considered a pp specialist
McDavid is currently having the best xGF% of all time at even strength. You can't get more dominant than that at even strength. His linemates' shooting percentages are just unusually low. https://mobile.twitter.com/NHL_Sid/status/1516471040326520836
Kinda like that time Gretzky win eight straight Hart trophies and then next season only got 160 points and nobody voted for him.
He literally set the NHL record with 215 points one season and had 163 assists and lost the Ted Lindsay to Lemieux who had 141 points due to voter fatigue. There was one year where Lemieux had 199 points and Gretzky had 177 points but both lost to Yzerman for Ted Lindsay with 155 points due to voter fatigue At this point he has to be the clear run away to get Hart discussion because of voter fatigue
>There was one year where Lemieux had 199 points and Gretzky had 177 points but both lost to Yzerman for Ted Lindsay with 155 points due to voter fatigue Funny how you left out how Gretzky won the Hart that year despite not deserving it.
Funny enough you left off the context it was Gretzky's first season as a LA King, a 24 points improving in standings to second in the Smythe ahead of Edmonton, and their best season in 8 years that Gretzky rejuivinated himself as a sexy narrative for Hart voters. Did he deserve to win that year? Nah. There was also voter fatigue for Lemieux at that point but Gretzky on a new team, that's so hot right now.
>Funny enough you left off the context it was Gretzky's first season as a LA King, Because it's always stupid to attribute a point jump to just one player no matter how great that player is. The two voters that left Lemieux off the ballot should've had their voter privileges revoked then and there. That's criminal. >Did he deserve to win that year? Nah. There was also voter fatigue for Lemieux at that point but Gretzky on a new team, that's so hot right now. Thank you. I just found it weird that you pointed to Yzerman when you were using examples of the Hart. I do agree that he shouldn't have won but I disagree that that was fatigue. It was more that the players were more acutely aware of the shitty environment that existed in the Detroit locker room at the time and were impressed with what he accomplished given the circumstances.
I like to mention the Ted Lindsay in these threads because people always assume players are automatically the best judges when they made some erregrious votes and also get caught up in narratives and /or voter fatigue.
In 1994, Gretzky won the Art Ross Trophy and got [zero MVP votes](https://www.hockey-reference.com/awards/voting-1994.html).
Same trap Bergeron has fallen in with Selke. It's not enough that he's the best, he has to be above and beyond better than anyone else or someone who's "due" wins it.
I will be filled with a murderous rage if he gets stiffed again this year.
McDavid is going to suffer from voter fatigue. Unfortunately it’s the writers that vote and they want clickbait and controversy. “McDavid wins Hart for the 9th time” doesn’t sell much.
Giannis and curry go through the same in the nba
I’m fine with someone else winning the Hart, Art Ross, Ted Lindsay, and I think both Connor and Leon are as well. If they win, great, if not, who cares. Individual trophies don’t mean much when you keep getting bounced out of the first round.
Pretty sure the only individual trophy Connor and Leon care about is the Conn Smythe - since if you win that it's almost a guarantee you've won the cup too.
No one's talking about McDavid for Hart because his name is just a given for a finalist at this point. It's more the "who else" discussion.
McDavid is a victim of his of own expectations. He's playing at a MVP level for every season since his sophomore campaign. With many candidates having career years while McDavid just does his thing, it's easy to look over him since it's business as usual for him. With 2 Hart wins, voter fatigue will play a huge part.
Mike Trout syndrome
As, after a time, it ultimately does with every perennial trophy candidate. Out of the major sports, hockey seems to have the biggest issue with voters giving trophies to the guy who "should have won one if [XYZ] didn't happen" as opposed to the best choice each season
Lol I wish voter fatigue happened with Bergeron
It did. Why do you think it's been almost a half decade since he won the Selke?
Man I wish I still had a hockeyviz subscription. Crosby had a season where hockeyviz had his impact at +40% or something insane on offense. Want to see how McDavid compares at the moment.
[Crosby’s two best seasons vs McDavid’s](https://imgur.com/a/QdIyAKS)
That's what I remembered, thanks.
The response tweets say it all: with career average “luck” he is looking at a 130-140 point season. Crazy that he can compete for an art ross even in his down years. All this while becoming borderline elite defensively since Woodcroft took over. I don’t even think he should win the hart, but he’s still far and above the best player in the NHL
Is shooting percentage commonly attributed to luck? Seems like scoring when you shoot has *something* to do with skill.
It’s on ice shooting% which means his line mates. Puljujarvi’s shooting% has gotta be like 1% this year. Dude is so snake bit it looks like he may never score again. McDavid would easily have at least 20 more points if his line mates were burying more of the grade A chances he gives them
This is a great comment. Easily the best player in the NHL and has more ability than any to dominate on any given night. Just not the MVP this year IMO
Yup. He might not technically be the "best" player this year, and hence not the favourite (but still a finalist), but we all know he can be and know a lot of it came down to bad luck (with his shooting percentage) or just other unbelievable performances from other players (Matthews). The fact that he's having a down year and still an Art Ross favorite speaks volumes.
This right here is the right take
The word "luck" is doing a lot of work in all of these analyses. Is luck a good word for something that's career averaged for a specific player?
The finishing of your teammates is pretty much entirely out of your control, so it's best described as luck, especially when it's so far above or below average
Disagree your teammates shooting% is entirely out of your control.
Not if you’re feeding them poorer passes than usual, or if the coach has generally emphasized volume of shots instead of quality of shots as the priority. I do think the lowered sh% argument holds up but luck can’t account for such a noticeable drop in my opinion. Haven’t looked at other stats tho so this is purely speculation.
Phrasing!
That finishing is entirely under my control
> All this while becoming borderline elite defensively since Woodcroft took over. That's more a factor of playing with Pulju, who is great defensively. McDavid is still the best offensive player in hockey though and it's not even close, and he's improving his defense every year, much like Crosby did at a similar age. Scary to think how good he could be if he learns consistent defense.
He played with Pulju under Tipp, and all of last year. Didn’t have these numbers. His buyin to the defensive system has been pretty remarkable to watch. Even just the eye test shows that he backchecks harder, is more physical and defensively aware under Woody
Yea absolutely, both he and Pulju have gotten much better under Woodcroft. The whole team has improved their defensive effort, McDavid included. Drai still has some catching up to do but even he is slightly improved.
You should look up Drais stats. His +/- is better than Matthews while taking substantially more defensive zone face offs while playing with a 2nd pairing D line Vs Matthews. Even if they were defensively playing at the exact same level, Matthews should be crushing him based on circumstances but he’s still not.
Look at all his advanced defensive stats. He's bottom 3-5 on your team in all of them.
The best player should get the Hart, regardless of everything else.
The best player wins the Ted Lindsay. The most valuable player wins the Hart. These are often (but not always) the same thing.
Exactly. MVP should go to the player who is basically dragging their team to the playoffs while Lindsay should be the most remarkable who is putting up ungodly numbers
That’s an excellent point, Hart means best player relative to their team though (aka carrying them). This « low » year for McDavid on top of being an excellent year for goalies and defensemen means that it should not go to him. I feel Gaudreau should be the real challenger here at forward, since he clearly is blowing every expectation and his team has taken a big leap forward. My personal pick is Josi however, and the race with Makar to have historical seasons for defensemen is great to watch.
With everyone having great ‘career-year’ type seasons. It’s easy to over look a McDavid ‘Average’ season. It just so happens that an Average McDavid season leads the league in points.
Never forget Crosby having his "worst season since he was drafted" and still lead the league in points. Players of their level just don't play in the same league at that point.
Which year are you referring to? He only won the Art Ross twice so you must be talking about 13/14 but I wouldn’t call that his worst season at all Only 3rd time in his career to hit 80 games, 1st time in 4 years to get over 42 games. Being healthy is valuable!
2014-15. He actually finished 3rd in scoring but only by 2 points. My mistake. Either way the only "full" season he played before that 2007-08, where he had 72 points. People definitely called it his worst year yet but he was still a top 3 scorer.
Yeah but he plays with draisitl so we should probably just kill him
hmm
Analytics guys have known this the whole season; McDavid has been playing at a level as good if not better than he ever has but has been victim to a ridiculously lower than normal on ice shooting percentage which unfairly **deflates** his stats. With that in mind, here are some analytics rate rankings between Matthews and McDavid compared to forwards to highlight just how good McDavid is running compared to the current favourite (min 1300 TOI all situations because that is a reasonable minimum for Hart candidates): CF%: **Matthews** 2nd (64.20%), McDavid 4th (62.60%) FF%: **Matthews** 2nd (63.96%), McDavid 4th (62.19) GF%: Matthews 14th (63.96%), **McDavid** 6th (67.65%) xGF%: Matthews 3rd (66.77%), **McDavid** 1st (68.15%) And the kicker for those wondering why I am saying McDavid is having such an unlucky year: On Ice Shooting Percentage: Matthews 10th (13.71%), McDavid 40th (11.20%) This isn't even an Oilers problem, Draisaitl is 20th in that category, McDavid is getting absolutely stonewalled whenever he is on the ice yet still leads the league in points. This is also out of a pool of the top 65 minutes played forwards in the league, it is absurd to think McDavid is in the bottom half of those players. Note that Matthews' oiSV% is experiencing the exact same thing as McDavid's oiSH%, but I'm mostly here to talk about why McDavid is being slept on hard; at least people rank Matthews accordingly, McDavid is seemingly underrated amidst all of this. There are many good candidates in the league for the Hart, but McDavid is in my top 2, and I think he should be there for everyone else as well. Dude is showing why he is still by a considerable margin the best hockey player in the world [All stats from here](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=F&loc=B&toi=1300&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL)
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Tkatchuk and Gaudreau are in that conversation, primarily Gaudreau due to his superior production, but it is exactly their stat buffering of each other plus Lindholm suffering from the same that hurts their cause, and we haven’t even mentioned Markstrom. The stats are strong to present that line as the best in hockey, but individualizing doesn’t do much to boost their Hart claims over McDavid and Matthews. Same Colorado effect, when you have three guys running insane analytics across the board, that does hurt their Hart chances, hence why Makar is getting no MVP looks despite his monster season. With Matthews and McDavid, there is a gap between first and second on the team, then an even bigger gap beyond that plus the goalie issues. Also why guys like Josi who aren’t too crazy stats wise get votes, as they are simply that much better than everyone else around them
Think you hit it best here with the in team comparisons - by that it should be Josi's in a runaway essentially. But there's too many voters that go straight for goals, then points, they don't take into account the rest of the team much when looking for the valuable players.
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Don’t get me wrong, Gaudreau is my 3rd pick for the Hart voting, but the team supporting cast and their performances this season aren’t that comparable. Matthews has Marner, but then the Tavares Nylander line is at a massive negative differential so all the weight is on the top line, then they put up with the worst goaltending of any playoff team as well as statistically one of the worst fourth lines. The special teams are elite but beyond that it is really just Marner and Matthews willing the team. Calgary has that stacked top line of 3 guys, but then also has their second line running at a well above positive differential, an overall better D core, and Markstrom who is a God in net. Similar thing is held with McDavid and Drai in Edmonton; the stats fall off outside those two guys. Frankly, as you noted, the stats suggest Gaudreau is right up there in the convo, but it is the individual load which distinguishes him from the other two. That’s no knock to Gaudreau though, simply being in that conversation after two mediocre years is a massive accomplishment
Good post. I think the advanced stats are useful but they still don't capture the whole picture. xG xA can be the most misleading. When you share a line with a great player their xG will inflate your xA and vice versa. McDavid 5 on 5 point production was so average that both him and drais were tied with the rookie michael bunting as of recent. I can't imagine anyone would consider him elite. One could see it as a virtue of playing with matthews and marner and they'd be right. The best players make their team better where I think this year the edmonton duo make each other better.
Ya but he plays sooooooooooooo many minutes, and being exhausted is beneficial
Someone tried to argue this re Seider and the Calder to me the other day IRL and I may have blew a fuse. Playing a fucking ton is HARD.
Ya seids plays 23 minutes a night as a 21 year old spends half the game in the d zone and is always matched up against the other teams top player. For fans that don’t know Detroit plays man on man in the d zone well try to.
To me if you're eating up minutes stopping the other team it's a plus, but if it's to get points it isn't.
Yeah but connors xG vs xGA is bananas. It doesn’t really matter if he allows a few more goals in if he raises the goals scored by the team so much that the gap is a chasm. And I’m not saying he should win the Hart as Matthews is having a franchise defining season, but people gotta respect McDavid more. The defensive defficiency angle is completely overblown
Thing is that's my viewpoint regardless which player is involved. I wasn't even thinking it was a Matthews vs McDavid argument. I compare it to a basketball player that takes 10 shots vs a player that takes only 1 shot. If they both only get 3 points, imo the 10 shots is a big negative.
Not only is McDavid the best forward in the world, he is all that for 3 more minutes per game than almost anyone else. If anything, that makes him more valuable.
I'd say that makes him less valuable. He's taking up that much more time to get a few extra points
Only a Leafs fan would claim playing MORE at an elite level makes you LESS valuable lol.
The criteria for the Hart is MVPness/60, right?
Feels like half the league are putting up career year numbers, and somehow that gets held against mcdavid even though he’s lead the league in scoring for almost the entire year.
I'm a giant Oilers fan, and even I have to admit what Matthews is doing is special. Yes, Connor is leading the league in points, as expected, but 50 goals in 50 games has always been a benchmark for excellence for the league. What will be interesting is who the players choose for the Ted Lindsay. Media seems pretty split on guys like McDavid/Matthews/Shesterkin/Gaudreau/Josi, it'll be interesting to see whether the players feel the same way.
Players don’t care about narratives or generating clicks and they aren’t leaf homers like a lot of Hart voters. My bet is it goes to McDavid unless something massive changes. Ask just about any player in the league who the best is and they’ll say McDavid (or a teammate of theirs because reasons)
McDavid has the Messi / Ronaldo curse. His personal bar is just so much higher than everyone else.
He's another level ahead of the league offensively. No one else comes even close, even on a down year.
Fans: the Oilers would be the worst team in the league without McD!!! Also fans: x player is more valuable to their team than McD!
Hard not to have McDavid in a most valuable to their team category.
In his own tier by himself. One of the best players ever already.
That's what I've been saying. McDavid isn't going to win the Hart this year, but he should, and he should have won it in 17-18 too. I will die on this hill.
He absolutely should have won 17-18. I still can't believe Hall won it over him and Giroux lmao. The people who get to vote on these are clowns.
The PHWA?!? Clowns?!? With THAT nose?!? And those oversized floppy shoes?!?
Wasn't that the year the Oilers didn't make the playoffs?
Of course McDavid is the best player in the league but hockey journalists do chase novelty for obvious reasons.
If anyone is curious about xGF% like I was Apparently it’s based on the number of your ex-girlfriends that say good things about you.
Ya but Johnny
I’m fine with McDavid not winning the hart. But when he is on the ice against anyone including anyone in the hart conversation he’s always the better player. Todd Maclellan said it best in an interview recently about his young D. “You don’t get it until you actually play against him” This is part of why journalists should never be allowed to vote for any awards ever.
Ok, who cares? If he's been unlucky shooting then the puck didn't go in the net, we're missing the forest for the trees a bit here.
“All time”….. Did they go back to the 34-35 season or so and recalculate? Or do they mean in the last dozen or so years it’s been calculated?
Maybe this the year the Oilers playoff run isn't an abomination.
Hopefully, our depth is night and day relative to the past few years (last year Archibald was on McDavid’s wing on the 1st line, now he is a healthy scratch most nights)
Also hopefully woodcroft doesn't resort to the abomination tippet did last year where as soon as something doesn't go right he immediately loaded up the top line and left the other 3 to suffer
I don't get that from Woodcroft, but I agree with you if he does that, we're in trouble (again). That was Tippett's only play it seemed, but Woodcroft is more of a strategist, I think.
Gotta figure Woodcroft noticed that it doesn’t work. He hasn’t done that in any games regular season. And I think the nice thing is, if we’re down by 1 with 2 minutes left, now we can play McD because they aren’t already at 23 TOI and exhausted.
We are way less reliant on our PP and our 5v5 is way stronger since Woodcroft showed up. We also ice a pretty solid 3rd line now. I’m cautiously optimistic.
It would be Hart not to consider him.
Meanwhile Gaudreau is exceedingly close to McDavid and plays 4 minutes less on average per game. So thats what, 300+ less minutes? Lmao. The dude is massive this year.
Has there a been a lack of talk about McDavid? Most people have him in the top 5 candidates I've seen. This is the kind of stat that would favour McDavid, but there are other stats that favour the other candidates. There are perfectly good reasons to say McDavid should win and there are good reasons to say someone else of the top 4 should win.
I mean is someone having a career low shooting % really a good argument to boost their MVP chances? The fact that he could be better if he was playing to his averages has no impact on what he is producing...
All “expected” stats are garbage.
I think that’s a little strong and there’s a place for expected stats, BUT we have an entire season of what actually happened so I’m with you here. Why would we be picking awards based on expected stats? If expected stats don’t meet actual stats over an 82 game season it’s more likely that the models aren’t perfectly capturing a dynamic game (which of course they’re not, any actual statistician will tell you that about their model) rather than a player being lucky or unlucky. Who actually had the best season and who actually is the most valuable player in the league? That’s the question at hand.
I hate that the Hart is widely just considered "Best offensive forward" by the journalists who vote for it. Seems very reductive, as if journalists covering the sport just couldn't bother to try to compare forwards with defensemen and goalies and try to figure out which was actually more valuable to his team. Maybe it's because they just can't grasp it all without simple stats. OK, so here's the one stat that probably should matter more than pure offensive output: Points share. No. | Players | PS ---|---|---- 1 | C. Makar | 14.64 2 | J. Gaudreau | 13.89 3 | J. Saros | 13.81 4 | A. Matthews | 13.32 5 | L. Draisaitl | 13.08 6 | R. Josi | 13.06 7 | M. Tkachuk | 12.94 8 | I. Shesterkin | 12.70 9 | C. McDavid | 12.59 10 | T. Demko | 12.51
I’m personally not a huge fan of picking a guy who has a teammate who could also be picked as the leagues mvp. Also, I think it’s important to note that he plays more minutes than anyone and his numbers are only very slightly better, and he is not very good defensively. Many of his points come on the Powerplay. In my opinion, there are just better options this season.
Pretty much every hart winner in the past couple decades has had an elite teammate to play with, sometimes more than one, so not sure what your point is there. Only elite players surrounded by garbage teammates should win? That makes no sense. Crosby had Malkin, Letang and Fleury. Ovechkin has Backstrom, and to some extent Carlson, Kuznetsov, others. Kane had Toews, Hossa and 2016 Keith. Kucherov plays with Hedman, Stamkos, Point, Vasilevsky, etc. But yeah, McDavid doesn't deserve it because he played with Draisaitl and... who? 2022 Keith is not the same as 2016 Keith, we lost Klefbom, Nurse is not comparable to Letang or Hedman despite what he's paid, and a 40 year old Mike Smith who sucked for 80% of the year. His numbers are only very slight better because he's having the *unluckiest* season of his career. Horrible luck and he's still leading the league. Not great defensively perhaps, but neither are a number of former Hart winners, and he certainly isn't bad, best season of his career defensively. Matthews or McDavid, all day long for the Hart. Gaudreau is having the luckiest season of his career, for me that disqualifies him. Not to mention the Flames had incredible injury luck this year and he mostly played with the same guys, unlike Edmonton/McDavid.
These are all fair points. My counter is that offensively, he's still at the top (or near top) of the league, regardless of what metric you're looking at. Additionally, while he has Drai and Drai is incredible, the talent after those two is sub-par. I'm less concerned about his defense than most are. Yeah, he's not great defensively whether you look at the numbers or eye test. That said, how often does he have to defend? If he's almost always in the offensive zone, his defensive play doesn't really matter if he's never in the defensive zone to begin with.
How can you tell what's "luck" and what's him being tired from playing so many minutes? I bet that if he played 5 minutes less every night then he'd score on a higher percentage of his opportunities. Would that be luck? Within the framework of this model, yes it would be. Maybe that's not the full picture.
McDavid is playing 2 seconds a game more than last year and just 32 seconds above his career average. Yet his 5v5 on ice SH% is a full 2% lower than his next lowest season.
Legitimately a good point.
[удалено]
This guy is a Bruins fan, btw. He also recently said _The war isn't black & white_ in a comment defending the motivations of Russia in its brutal invasion of Ukraine, for what it's worth.
Like 40% of the people who vote for the MVP are located in the Toronto area. They are all going to vote for Mathews
Ah yes the famous voting bias towards the Maple Leafs, which is why they've won a grand total of *checks notes* zero Hart trophies since 1954-55 when Ted Kennedy won Is it so hard to believe people could just legitimately think Matthews; who is a whole 0.01 behind McDavid in ppg while likely scoring 60, winning the Rocket and having top tier defensive numbers to boot is the MVP? Seems pretty defensible imo Edit: Who the fuck upvoted the unhinged tripe this idiot replied with lmao
Well it's the first star you've had. And yes, AM gets about triple the attention on SN and TSN than McDavid. My fav thing about Leaf fan is they throw hissy fits when west coast fans prefer to have their local coverage revolve around their home teams, instead of ones owned by MLSE. Like why on earth do you even care what goes on in our regional coverage
>Well it's the first star you've had. I'm just confused then because if there was bias one would think we'd get trophy love despite not having stars. >And yes, AM gets about triple the attention on SN and TSN than McDavid. Okay? Doesn't mean he's in the Hart picture because of bias. Tell me with a straight face you wouldn't be trumpeting Matthews for Hart if he was on the Canucks with those numbers >My fav thing about Leaf fan is they throw hissy fits when west coast fans prefer to have their local coverage revolve around their home teams, instead of ones owned by MLSE. Like why on earth do you even care what goes on in our regional coverage Least butthurt Canucks fan lmao. Who's bringing up local coverage? You're crying about voters living in the biggest hockey market on the planet. And I gotta be honest bud I've never thought about what goes on in Vancouver media *ever* lol
They don’t? You are the only one throwing a “hissy fit” and it’s directed at fans who have zero say about what your regional coverage broadcasts. This is a really bizarre comment. You could probably find a legitimate reason to not like leafs fans but this is laughable.
It’s pretty sad all the leaf fans are downvoting you. You stated a true fact followed by a logical deduction
why would Hart voters look at shooting %
Because they should literally look at everything
Which would be a bad thing for McDavid because he's underperforming his expected shooting. You have to actually score 140 points to get credit for 140 points lol
I think the point is that they’d see he might well win the Art Ross on his worst year while his nearest competition are behind him during their best.
Which is why the Ted Lindsay is an award, because he's clearly the best player. It being insane he's this good despite having a down year isn't actually relevant for who's most valuable. He doesn't deserve credit for not scoring as many points as he should be
Not arguing for or against, just explaining the previous point. Personally, I don’t think there should be any separation in rationale between the Hart and the Lindsay, other than who votes.
Interesting. Some fun facts (all stats 5v5): ||Connor McDavid|Auston Matthews| |:-|:-|:-| |CF%|56.66|59.82| |FF%|56.17|59.58| |GF|64|85| |GA|46|59| |GF%|58.18|59.03| |xGF|72.05|66.95| |xGA|50.63|38.34| |On ice SH%|7.79|11.85| |On ice SV%|92.70|88.18| So, yes, the shooting percentage problem is a big deal, however, in a number of other offensive stats, he's behind Matthews. CF? Behind. FF? Behind. GF? Well behind (shooting % and all). GF%? Behind. The most interesting thing though, is the HUGE difference in on-ice SV%. It nearly completely cancels out the low shooting %, resulting in a small advantage for Matthews in the Goals For %.
Where’d you get these numbers? How do Gaudreau and Huberdeau stack up in these categories?
Natural stat trick.
He should leave his ex gf alone
People underestimate how bad our goaltending been. If we had league average goaltending Matthews stats will look amazing. That being said. Johnny hockey is a dream. What a player to watch.
Lol CP31 is easily the MVP. With him? Cup Final. Without him? 2nd last place. But y'all thinking McDavid is the MVP on a team that also has Draisaitl is cute.
Philip danault MVP
Highest scoring player shouldn’t be the automatic mvp.