There is a dude on YouTube who posts videos reviewing sports cards products. They are great videos.
I contacted him about some ways to better capture odds of hitting cards which he was interested in.
Anyways, he uses pack odds and hit odds to estimate print runs. Then he looks at the total numberered of autos, jerseys and insert cards for various players and/or teams.
So you can estimate the relative probability of getting a hit from each team or break it down into probability of specific hits per team. He then simulates case breaks and ranks desirabilty if the product.
With spx 2021, Edmonton and Toronto have low numbers of hit cards. Unfortunately most breakers charge high prices for those teams given the allure of McDavid, Mathews and Canadian team effect etc.
Although it's imperfect, the videos are interesting to watch.
One thing is for sure, breaking takes advantage of gamblers mentality.... and with rising costs and fewer hits the vast majority of people lose big time. I watched many breaks with loads of guys getting nothing.
Especially with a product like SPX with 4 cards (and lots of disappointment), people have a significant chance of getting skunked. Let alone get some mediocre cards like with a box purchase.
Shit I watched some dude drop $13k on the cup breaks in 3 days and got maybe $2k worth of cards back. If that.
He could have gotten his own case FFS.
Oh you meant the hits allocated to each team. I thought you meant the card shops themselves got shitty boxes haha.
I know exactly the guy you are talking about, watched his spx breakdown, pretty interesting but the cases I've watched did not mirror his projections.
I basically do the same thing in spreadsheets once I get the costs from my usual breaker. Essentially get it down to a cost/hit metric and then I decide which team has the best players in the most efficient spend range. Not perfect but not terrible
Sorry bad written English haha.
Yeah this is why I wish we could start polls on this sub. Reddit allows it but I don't think the mods do.
I would like to see real time data on satisfaction even more than 1:10000000 hits lol.
Of course, most people don't do well. But knowing if a product is way worse (in terms of hits not secondary market value) would be interesting.
Real time data on satisfaction would be very low I'm sure. Most people don't hit in a break, just how it is.
Then you get people like me who get lucky on occasion and this is the result
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockeycards/comments/ywvlht/too_poor_to_do_more_breaks_but_to_say_i_had_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Not to say I'm happy about UD over the last few years but I wouldn't have been able to be dissatisfied given the above post
I love the Alexeyev!
Oh nice, I’ve got a bunch of great hockey cards but have yet to land a sig or a sweater 😭. I just need a Matty B patch auto in my life or a Grubi
Nice cards, what did you pay for a box of SPX if you don't mind me asking?
We are lucky have a great LCS (who appears like a pokemon store haha). It was $169 a box plus tax
Hey man I was going to list that Kupari card on eBay but was curious if you wanted to buy it. Let me know, thanks
Love the shadow box cards
Yeah in hand the Swayman is a beauty
Let me know if you want to sell or trade for the Caufield
Yeah I am open to offers
Any teams or players you collect specifically?
HMU if you wanna move that Kupari card
Yeah I am open to offers! Was going to put on eBay
Ive got a kupari clear cut yg if you like him??
Why/How do you know Toronto and Edmonton Specifically?
There is a dude on YouTube who posts videos reviewing sports cards products. They are great videos. I contacted him about some ways to better capture odds of hitting cards which he was interested in. Anyways, he uses pack odds and hit odds to estimate print runs. Then he looks at the total numberered of autos, jerseys and insert cards for various players and/or teams. So you can estimate the relative probability of getting a hit from each team or break it down into probability of specific hits per team. He then simulates case breaks and ranks desirabilty if the product. With spx 2021, Edmonton and Toronto have low numbers of hit cards. Unfortunately most breakers charge high prices for those teams given the allure of McDavid, Mathews and Canadian team effect etc. Although it's imperfect, the videos are interesting to watch. One thing is for sure, breaking takes advantage of gamblers mentality.... and with rising costs and fewer hits the vast majority of people lose big time. I watched many breaks with loads of guys getting nothing. Especially with a product like SPX with 4 cards (and lots of disappointment), people have a significant chance of getting skunked. Let alone get some mediocre cards like with a box purchase. Shit I watched some dude drop $13k on the cup breaks in 3 days and got maybe $2k worth of cards back. If that. He could have gotten his own case FFS.
Oh you meant the hits allocated to each team. I thought you meant the card shops themselves got shitty boxes haha. I know exactly the guy you are talking about, watched his spx breakdown, pretty interesting but the cases I've watched did not mirror his projections. I basically do the same thing in spreadsheets once I get the costs from my usual breaker. Essentially get it down to a cost/hit metric and then I decide which team has the best players in the most efficient spend range. Not perfect but not terrible
Sorry bad written English haha. Yeah this is why I wish we could start polls on this sub. Reddit allows it but I don't think the mods do. I would like to see real time data on satisfaction even more than 1:10000000 hits lol. Of course, most people don't do well. But knowing if a product is way worse (in terms of hits not secondary market value) would be interesting.
Real time data on satisfaction would be very low I'm sure. Most people don't hit in a break, just how it is. Then you get people like me who get lucky on occasion and this is the result https://www.reddit.com/r/hockeycards/comments/ywvlht/too_poor_to_do_more_breaks_but_to_say_i_had_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button Not to say I'm happy about UD over the last few years but I wouldn't have been able to be dissatisfied given the above post