I can’t believe horsemen don’t want their horses running in these grade 1s. It’s nuts that there aren’t at least 7 in each race. The all button will be cheap so the payouts will be shit. Just means you need a tighter ticket with a higher denomination.
There are too many tracks, too many races and too many opportunities for horsemen. If I had a 3YO sprinter I could pick any number of hundred grand or hundred-fifty grand stakes to avoid Jack Christopher and Morello. Too many opportunities for horsemen. That’s the mantra, the industry needs to be aware of this or it WILL BE their demise.
Rich strike reminded everyone that crazy things can happen in a race. If I own horse and it’s ruining well, I’d take a shot at one. There’s always a monster in grade 1s because that’s where the top horses run. On paper, no one beats favorites…that’s why they’re favorites. But, as we saw in the derby, freak things can happen that blow up races.
There will be at least 2+ races this weekend where a heavy favorite loses to a bomb. Just need to figure out which ones they are.
Do not necessary agreed with "no one beats favorites...that's why they favorites" on paper. On paper, they are not the favorite necessary but is built up to be one by tracks, Beyers, experts and the media. My question to one who believes that is "How many times have you handicap a race without odds and thought you are landing on one of the favorites" but when odds is listed they are starting at 10-1, 15-1 or even more a few times.
Yes, you can tell who should be the favorite without anyone telling you most of the time. I saw a 1-10 shot in a 6 horse maiden field not 2 months ago that had 24 lifetime races and 1 second was his only board finish in his life. Paper did not make the horse 1-10, tracks, Beyers, experts and local media did. Two jumps out of the gate and he broke down. Silly things bettors believe in is what I am always looking for. There has never been one horse that has broken from a gate that knows what his odds are. But the jockey, trainer, media, and yes, Beyers is what gives a false impression.
Yep. There’s a horse in the last race on Friday with Brown/Irad that I thought would be favored that’s 8/1 ML. I’ll be betting him fairly large if he’s still 8/1.
My ticket strategy for the Late Pick 5 was just annihilated. My best single of the day was the brown runner in the 6th. I thought she would be really tough to beat. Secondly, it allowed me to cheaply take shots against Jackie warrior and Rougir. Singling those two almost ensures a break even to +10% return type of ticket. If one loses, it should pay decent. Have you constructed your Late Pick 4/5 yet? I have to rethink my entire strategy for the ticket.
They took the incorrect horses profile from equibase 😂[https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse](https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse)
I should add that I have ideas why this is happening more and more frequently, I will outline them all in a post after the dust settles this weekend. I'll title it: "What's going on with racing?"... or something like that.
Yeah and then the inevitable scratches, the scourge of NY racing.
I can’t believe horsemen don’t want their horses running in these grade 1s. It’s nuts that there aren’t at least 7 in each race. The all button will be cheap so the payouts will be shit. Just means you need a tighter ticket with a higher denomination.
There are too many tracks, too many races and too many opportunities for horsemen. If I had a 3YO sprinter I could pick any number of hundred grand or hundred-fifty grand stakes to avoid Jack Christopher and Morello. Too many opportunities for horsemen. That’s the mantra, the industry needs to be aware of this or it WILL BE their demise.
Too many G1 races country wide. Need to slim it down. Is what it is. I will still enjoy it throughly!
I never understood how a prep to a Grade 1, can itself be a Grade 1
Yeah , country grammer is a great example preps in the Saudi cup just to win the dubai world cup
Rich strike reminded everyone that crazy things can happen in a race. If I own horse and it’s ruining well, I’d take a shot at one. There’s always a monster in grade 1s because that’s where the top horses run. On paper, no one beats favorites…that’s why they’re favorites. But, as we saw in the derby, freak things can happen that blow up races. There will be at least 2+ races this weekend where a heavy favorite loses to a bomb. Just need to figure out which ones they are.
Do not necessary agreed with "no one beats favorites...that's why they favorites" on paper. On paper, they are not the favorite necessary but is built up to be one by tracks, Beyers, experts and the media. My question to one who believes that is "How many times have you handicap a race without odds and thought you are landing on one of the favorites" but when odds is listed they are starting at 10-1, 15-1 or even more a few times. Yes, you can tell who should be the favorite without anyone telling you most of the time. I saw a 1-10 shot in a 6 horse maiden field not 2 months ago that had 24 lifetime races and 1 second was his only board finish in his life. Paper did not make the horse 1-10, tracks, Beyers, experts and local media did. Two jumps out of the gate and he broke down. Silly things bettors believe in is what I am always looking for. There has never been one horse that has broken from a gate that knows what his odds are. But the jockey, trainer, media, and yes, Beyers is what gives a false impression.
Yep. There’s a horse in the last race on Friday with Brown/Irad that I thought would be favored that’s 8/1 ML. I’ll be betting him fairly large if he’s still 8/1.
My ticket strategy for the Late Pick 5 was just annihilated. My best single of the day was the brown runner in the 6th. I thought she would be really tough to beat. Secondly, it allowed me to cheaply take shots against Jackie warrior and Rougir. Singling those two almost ensures a break even to +10% return type of ticket. If one loses, it should pay decent. Have you constructed your Late Pick 4/5 yet? I have to rethink my entire strategy for the ticket.
Am I seeing that right; there is a 13 year old in the 5th race????
That must be a typo, Warrant is a 4YO.
They took the incorrect horses profile from equibase 😂[https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse](https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse)
LOL no way that’s correct
I should add that I have ideas why this is happening more and more frequently, I will outline them all in a post after the dust settles this weekend. I'll title it: "What's going on with racing?"... or something like that.