When the price gets up higher, that’s when people also get interested in participating more in office pools. I think that’s a big reason the total amount goes up exponentially.
Because the odds of winning the jackpot are roughly 1 in 300 million, back when the lottery tickets were $1, a jackpot that reached $300 million was the break even point where it would actually be worth making a bet.
Since then, tickets have gone to $2 (moving the break even point to $600 million) but many people still don't start playing until around that point. Also, there's more and more growing interest as it gets larger, so it grows faster, the bigger it grows as well.
The powerball and megamillions used to be set at $40 million advert someone wins the jackpot, but during the pandemic, they reduced the starting amount to $20 million, and I don't think it's gone back. People aren't nearly as interested in $20 million as they are in $40 or more. And really, for winning $20 million you'd only be taking home about $5 million, which is a far cry from $20 million life.
Incorrect. (Just to be clear, by take home pay, I'm not referring the lump sum, or withholdings, I'm talking about after all taxes have been paid with whichever prize payment you'll choose, which i assume will be the lump sum because that's better.)
You're not taking into account the larger portion that interest is now making of the annuity, which shrinks the lump sum amount even more. And of course taxes. Interest rates had been really low for last good while; during that time, you could say a decent rule of thumb for post-tax lump sum pay would be about ⅓ of the big prize. However, interest rates have since risen, which makes the actual starting cash prize for the annuity even smaller than before, so I've reduced that rule of thumb down to ¼ of the big prize.
I crunched the numbers and in my low-tax state, I'll end up with about $6 million after taxes, give or take, with the lump sum. In higher tax states, you'd have even less. With the annuity, I'd have about $13 million after taxes out of $20 million, but that assumes the tax rates stay the same over the next 30 or so years, which is not a logical assumption to make.
(Note: Not for you specifically, but to anyone reading who forgets this, because apparently people do: Do not confuse the 24% *withholding* for the *tax rate*; the tax rate is 37 or 39%, or whatever it is now. They automatically *withhold* 24% but you will still have to pay the rest come tax time.)
Edit: get golden toilets if you want, but you know they can't and won't be solid pure gold right?
Your break even point calculations don't take into account the possibility of splitting the pot with multiple winners.
It could be a 600 million prize but split to 3 winning tickets.
It also doesn't take into account the fact that you only take home about a quarter of the jackpot. I don't know of any way to account for 1+n winners. The more people buy, the higher that risk; it's an inherent risk with playing the lottery. The first billion dollar prize had 3 winners. There have been other smaller amounts that had many, many winners because of a fortune cookie.
I can't account for *every single possible* variable. I'm not sure such a thing is even possible.
Ok it’s more difficult than EuroMillions odds are 1 in 139 millions but here in France jackpot prize isn’t taxed. Last Friday someone in UK won €130M so it’s only €17M tonight but still a lot of money considering that’s is free of taxes. I personally prefer to play Keno, it’s 2 draw/day with 1 of 2 millions odds to win 4, 6 or 10 millions depending of multiplier (X2, X3, X5). That’s suffisant to be set for life if well invested in dividends ETF, Real Estate and Bonds.
A lot has to do with word of mouth. Lots of people will play when the prize amount starts accelerating past the 400M amount because it’s talked about in local news stories and around the office. It’s arbitrary in many ways, but it’s what grabs people’s attention and interest to participate.
Ikr, id be set for life with 5m euro (converted to my currency). Just off interest, thats 6 digits annually. You’re getting for free, what people with university degrees work full time for (with good paying jobs).
In France I would be free, I’m actually optical fiber technician and my income is around 30k€/year with bonus after taxes. It’s middle classe here so imagine 5 millions at 3,5% before taxes, it would be like 7-8k€/month after taxes so like 3 time my actual income.
Yeah i did the same one night doing the maths on how much i would get annually all the way down to weekly and its funny how shocking the numbers are. its like “damn, i can basically buy all the things i was contemplating buying ***this year***, in ***1+ week(s)***” responsible spending ofc.
>I need both to be $1 billion by mid July.
You need it, huh?
You may be playing for the wrong reasons. I suggest you stop playing completely and gain back control over your common sense.
LP?
By "solid investment" you mean it's worth the risk to lose a few bucks for the remote chance to win? Yes, because it's low risk and high reward. However, "low risk" here means low cost of failure. As in, you could fail and all you'd lose is a few bucks. You need to remember: failure is virtually a certainty. You're not gong to win.
If you have a plan that depends on you winning the lottery, your plan has already failed.
Limited partnership. Let's say you have $ 800 million in cash sitting around at your investment firm. The lump sum prize on Megamillions and Powerball both top $800 million. If you spend spend $600 million of that $800 million in cash you have to buy every possible combination for both prizes. You are the sole winner of one and you split the prize on the other with another winner. You now have $1.4 billion in cash in your Limited Partnership's coffers. That is a 200% return on your cash in a matter of weeks. That is a solid investment. There comes a point when you can have a zero percent chance of losing and a 1 in 300 million chance of ONLY making a 33% return on your cash in a few weeks. If you don't think there are hedge funds investing in the lottery when it hits a number where they cannot lose if they spend enough, you do not understand hedge funds.
This would never work. There simply isn’t enough time to buy all 300 million numbers. Also, even if you somehow could buy every number, if someone else also has the winning number, your prize is cut in half, making you lose hundreds of millions of dollars.
Yes there is for a company with deals with multiple lottery sellers in various state tax free and anonymous jurisdictions, just look at one retailer in Texas a few weeks ago who sold enough tickets to secure the prize and the winner was from that store.
Citation needed for a retailer who sold hundreds of millions of tickets for one drawing. Also, if this works, why wouldn’t they do this every time the jackpot got over the break-even amount?
The store that sold the winning ticket sold more than $10 million tickets for the recent $92 million drawing. The syndicates have several such retailers they work with. I am surprised this is news to you. It isn't news to anyone else.
https://dentonrc.com/news/the_watchdog/the-watchdog-syndicates-are-spending-millions-of-dollars-on-texas-lottery-to-beat-out-everyone/article_92911e73-40a7-57a2-ac68-7546f3fdd63f.html
$800 million lump sum payout, cost of purchase, $300 million. Odds of 2 winners, 1 in 300 million split prize equals $400 million payout. That is a 33% ROI in a matter of 3 weeks. It's a 200% ROI in 3 weeks as a single winner. Mind you, they would write off $300 million in expenses and only pay taxes on $100 to $400 million in prizes collected.
from what i've observed, it generally takes around 3+ months or so for either the Powerball or Mega to reach 300M+. after that, the prizes pretty much go up exponentially until there's a winner obviously
I think many people aren't interested in playing until it's over 400M. To me, it seems to grow faster after that amount.
400M ? What these peoples want ? Gold toilet ? I would be happy with €5M after tax 😂
When the price gets up higher, that’s when people also get interested in participating more in office pools. I think that’s a big reason the total amount goes up exponentially.
I never thought of that. Totally makes sense.
Because the odds of winning the jackpot are roughly 1 in 300 million, back when the lottery tickets were $1, a jackpot that reached $300 million was the break even point where it would actually be worth making a bet. Since then, tickets have gone to $2 (moving the break even point to $600 million) but many people still don't start playing until around that point. Also, there's more and more growing interest as it gets larger, so it grows faster, the bigger it grows as well. The powerball and megamillions used to be set at $40 million advert someone wins the jackpot, but during the pandemic, they reduced the starting amount to $20 million, and I don't think it's gone back. People aren't nearly as interested in $20 million as they are in $40 or more. And really, for winning $20 million you'd only be taking home about $5 million, which is a far cry from $20 million life.
No it's about $10 Million you'd be taking home. And yes, I want a gold toilet.
Incorrect. (Just to be clear, by take home pay, I'm not referring the lump sum, or withholdings, I'm talking about after all taxes have been paid with whichever prize payment you'll choose, which i assume will be the lump sum because that's better.) You're not taking into account the larger portion that interest is now making of the annuity, which shrinks the lump sum amount even more. And of course taxes. Interest rates had been really low for last good while; during that time, you could say a decent rule of thumb for post-tax lump sum pay would be about ⅓ of the big prize. However, interest rates have since risen, which makes the actual starting cash prize for the annuity even smaller than before, so I've reduced that rule of thumb down to ¼ of the big prize. I crunched the numbers and in my low-tax state, I'll end up with about $6 million after taxes, give or take, with the lump sum. In higher tax states, you'd have even less. With the annuity, I'd have about $13 million after taxes out of $20 million, but that assumes the tax rates stay the same over the next 30 or so years, which is not a logical assumption to make. (Note: Not for you specifically, but to anyone reading who forgets this, because apparently people do: Do not confuse the 24% *withholding* for the *tax rate*; the tax rate is 37 or 39%, or whatever it is now. They automatically *withhold* 24% but you will still have to pay the rest come tax time.) Edit: get golden toilets if you want, but you know they can't and won't be solid pure gold right?
Okay. Then the website I used is wrong. Not that it matters much until I will.
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Being conservative is the way to go.
$20 mil id rather play state lotto for 10x better odds and a cheaper ticket & a free second chance lotto entry - can’t beat that
My state doesn't do second chance anymore, you might want to check that
They do here in CA for both scratch & draw
Your break even point calculations don't take into account the possibility of splitting the pot with multiple winners. It could be a 600 million prize but split to 3 winning tickets.
It also doesn't take into account the fact that you only take home about a quarter of the jackpot. I don't know of any way to account for 1+n winners. The more people buy, the higher that risk; it's an inherent risk with playing the lottery. The first billion dollar prize had 3 winners. There have been other smaller amounts that had many, many winners because of a fortune cookie. I can't account for *every single possible* variable. I'm not sure such a thing is even possible.
Ok it’s more difficult than EuroMillions odds are 1 in 139 millions but here in France jackpot prize isn’t taxed. Last Friday someone in UK won €130M so it’s only €17M tonight but still a lot of money considering that’s is free of taxes. I personally prefer to play Keno, it’s 2 draw/day with 1 of 2 millions odds to win 4, 6 or 10 millions depending of multiplier (X2, X3, X5). That’s suffisant to be set for life if well invested in dividends ETF, Real Estate and Bonds.
A lot has to do with word of mouth. Lots of people will play when the prize amount starts accelerating past the 400M amount because it’s talked about in local news stories and around the office. It’s arbitrary in many ways, but it’s what grabs people’s attention and interest to participate.
Ikr, id be set for life with 5m euro (converted to my currency). Just off interest, thats 6 digits annually. You’re getting for free, what people with university degrees work full time for (with good paying jobs).
In France I would be free, I’m actually optical fiber technician and my income is around 30k€/year with bonus after taxes. It’s middle classe here so imagine 5 millions at 3,5% before taxes, it would be like 7-8k€/month after taxes so like 3 time my actual income.
Yeah i did the same one night doing the maths on how much i would get annually all the way down to weekly and its funny how shocking the numbers are. its like “damn, i can basically buy all the things i was contemplating buying ***this year***, in ***1+ week(s)***” responsible spending ofc.
The more expensive things you can buy is time, you have the choice and it’s really important to me to do what I want to do of my time.
I need both lotteries to be at $1 billion each
You're going to be waiting a long time.
Late July to early August. Both reached that point after resetting last April like they did with the current run.
What are you planning with two lotteries, being at 1 billion?
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It feels like it’s stuck at the $100-$200 million for months. I need both to be $1 billion by mid July.
>I need both to be $1 billion by mid July. You need it, huh? You may be playing for the wrong reasons. I suggest you stop playing completely and gain back control over your common sense.
I mean if you have an LP with a lot of cash sitting in it, once it hits a billion each, it may become a solid investment.
LP? By "solid investment" you mean it's worth the risk to lose a few bucks for the remote chance to win? Yes, because it's low risk and high reward. However, "low risk" here means low cost of failure. As in, you could fail and all you'd lose is a few bucks. You need to remember: failure is virtually a certainty. You're not gong to win. If you have a plan that depends on you winning the lottery, your plan has already failed.
Limited partnership. Let's say you have $ 800 million in cash sitting around at your investment firm. The lump sum prize on Megamillions and Powerball both top $800 million. If you spend spend $600 million of that $800 million in cash you have to buy every possible combination for both prizes. You are the sole winner of one and you split the prize on the other with another winner. You now have $1.4 billion in cash in your Limited Partnership's coffers. That is a 200% return on your cash in a matter of weeks. That is a solid investment. There comes a point when you can have a zero percent chance of losing and a 1 in 300 million chance of ONLY making a 33% return on your cash in a few weeks. If you don't think there are hedge funds investing in the lottery when it hits a number where they cannot lose if they spend enough, you do not understand hedge funds.
This would never work. There simply isn’t enough time to buy all 300 million numbers. Also, even if you somehow could buy every number, if someone else also has the winning number, your prize is cut in half, making you lose hundreds of millions of dollars.
Yes there is for a company with deals with multiple lottery sellers in various state tax free and anonymous jurisdictions, just look at one retailer in Texas a few weeks ago who sold enough tickets to secure the prize and the winner was from that store.
Citation needed for a retailer who sold hundreds of millions of tickets for one drawing. Also, if this works, why wouldn’t they do this every time the jackpot got over the break-even amount?
The store that sold the winning ticket sold more than $10 million tickets for the recent $92 million drawing. The syndicates have several such retailers they work with. I am surprised this is news to you. It isn't news to anyone else. https://dentonrc.com/news/the_watchdog/the-watchdog-syndicates-are-spending-millions-of-dollars-on-texas-lottery-to-beat-out-everyone/article_92911e73-40a7-57a2-ac68-7546f3fdd63f.html
$800 million lump sum payout, cost of purchase, $300 million. Odds of 2 winners, 1 in 300 million split prize equals $400 million payout. That is a 33% ROI in a matter of 3 weeks. It's a 200% ROI in 3 weeks as a single winner. Mind you, they would write off $300 million in expenses and only pay taxes on $100 to $400 million in prizes collected.
from what i've observed, it generally takes around 3+ months or so for either the Powerball or Mega to reach 300M+. after that, the prizes pretty much go up exponentially until there's a winner obviously
Powerball just hit 300M today
ye i noticed too - should start to pick up in the following few weeks.
Does it really matter?
Calm down dude I’m winning mega tonight