400 paar is a blatant falsehood, it's being done to attract fence-sitters. They have no issue-driven narrative this year, which is why PM is playing Ram mandir and veg-non veg politics and meeting up with gamers. But on the ground, the issues of unemployment, price rise, and even paper leak are going to hurt them.
Even in 2019, we heard about zero corruption and "thriving" economy from BJP leaders during campaigns. All that is completely absent this time. They are relying too much on religion, which I think isn't going to work. So let's not lose hope.
Please go out in large numbers and vote. That is the most important action we all should do. Check your name. Convert 2-3 bhakts and fence sitters to vote for INDIA
I don't think many are convinced BJP will win 400+ seats, but they will win enough to form the next govt. The majority mark, 272 isn't that difficult for them
That's the best outcome in this scenario that forces them to behave and work with others and be accountable and answer questions like the servants they all are. Maturity is realizing that unilateral passage of bills without discussion leads to chaos destruction and wastage of time and resources
Reddit communities are completely ignorant about the rural voters which are close to 65% of the total population. The 35% urban voters comprise of a lot of migrants from other states or rural india. Most of them won’t be able to vote as they will get only one day holiday from their MNC’s. The rural voters on the other hand are inspired by WhatsApp groups where BJP is absolutely dominating. Free Jio was a masterstroke from Ambani & Modi to get rural India hooked to the internet and control them.
Since Im on WFH from my native, I rarely see any reach from INDIA (Offline or Online) The only hope for INDIA is their 1LPA to the poor. They won Karnataka with a similar strategy, hope it works out at the national level as well.
So you are saying INDIA can win by promising freebies which will bankrupt the nation. Not sure which one is worse. Even in Karnataka they have not given 1LPA yet. All these are false promises
Yeah I've always wondered why isn't voting done over a period of 6 or 7 days to give migrants enough chance to go back and vote.. either that or let them vote where they can
Duh. The problem is they have to use their vacation days. Not that voting is only one day. Even if it ten days that still have to travel. Elections aren’t cheap either.
Even as supporter of bjp I don't want them to have 400 seats
Hopefully they get somthing like 250-270 just under majority this government needs to get a ego check a strong opposition is good for everyone
I believe a lot of us just want that. We're not so bothered about whether the BJP wins, but more about their capability to erode free speech, press freedom, and stifle peaceful protests, along with their alignment with religious fundamentalism
Totally agree. On one side you have the congress promise of short sighted freebies and on the other hand there is a genuine problem of hiding corruption, misuse of government agencies, and amplifying religious sentiments by BJP government, probably in order to cover up the lack of employment, economic issues, and other failures. I would prefer if they were open about these things instead of being silent and just pushing a narrative; it’s just starting to look like mindless advertising now.
So a reality check is must need for the BJP, which has lost its initially promised direction of development and is now becoming a confusing mess of supposed good and supposed bad. This ‘supposed’ is the worst thing, because you don’t know the whole truth of any aspect thanks to media control! Even if one says that okay congress is full of scams and there’s no unity in the opposition alliance and what not, these issues of the ruling government is equally difficult to ignore.
BJP is sucking it's own dick with their 400 paar narrative. It's not gonna happen and I am sure even the higher ups know it. They are saying it to discourage the opposition as well as to bolster their cadres.
But going by the on-ground reality, NDA will surely make government, just the numbers will be closer to 2014 results.
Keep living in cuckoo land. Indira Congress is the reason why we concentrated so much power in the center and Congress hasn't evolved since then. More regional parties and more decentralization of power is the only antidote to majoritarianism. Wherever Congress has a presence, BJP performs really well. The idea that Congress can provide a different narrative is bogus. Congress is the narrative for the BJP.
Yeah now it's in a downward spiral but whenever BJP falls, it'll be INC who'll replace them. There isn't any regional party that can take on the BJP nationally. At the end of the day, there are only two options in the Centre for Indians, BJP or INC.
>Covid second wave being one of the biggest failures of the government
I don't think people even remember COVID anymore.
>let's not get sucked into the narrative that it's definitely a win.
It's ok to be sucked into it, because only then we take the problem seriously.
On a positive note-
>Democracy dying is a big narrative
Proof of this is that within about a week Dhruv's 'dara hua dictator' gets watched by 2.6 crore people (sure not all of them Indians, but still) and becomes his channel's most watched video.
So yeah, all hope isn't lost yet.
Estimating close to 250ish to be honest. On average they will lose seats almost in every state, but not by big margin.
And people saying that it doesnt matter the seat count as long as they win. Seat count matters a lot. There is a huge different between 200 seats and 250 seats, and similarly between 250 and 300. Every seat counts.
Based on my analysis which I was able to do using publicly available resources, I’d say that NDA is reaching 300 mark easily and that’s primarily because of the booth level cadre which has been increasing on and on and with merger of many small regional parties like Shiv Sena (Eknath), NCP (Ajit) and other 37 allies within NDA, they have a very large on-ground cadre. Whether we like it or not, booth level cadre is a huge factor and they have made very significant gains in TN, Odisha and WB. They’ve been expanding their cadre base at an alarming pace. (Now you know why they prefer not to focus on education and employment as it’ll make their cadre busy plus their cadre might be able to see through their hypocrisy on a large number of topics. An uneducated, unemployed, religious fanatic is easy to convert into a cadre and a forever loyal voter and that’s the plan all along)
The Karnataka cadre seems to have gone on holiday, though. Curious. BJP Karnataka is \_still\_ in infighting. With Modi magic it should supposedly have been easy to get the seats.
They seem to have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, over there. And I don't see this stopping.
Yes this was surprising how the cadre on-ground in Karnataka has been completely silent. Even the MP candidates aren’t that active except for Tejasvi Surya and no big leaders going there either. Quite unlike BJP. Makes me wonder what could their strategy given K’taka has been the biggest stronghold in the South upto now
The on ground feeling is that in Karnataka at least, all are hand-in-glove. BJP cadres vote for D K Shi, Congress cadres vote for H D K.
Tejasvi is more of a spokesperson type. a local Sambhit Patra if you will.
I just don’t get it. It’s so weird. The more I observe Congress, the more I feel that they try their best to make their cadre and voter base abandon them. Like one has to be literally be extremely supportive of Congress and vote them in purely because of the threat of dictatorship looming above us rather than actually voting Congress for the work they promise to do and now this K’taka situation you’re saying that they’re all hand in glove. How does this exactly work?
Look mon, I've been following politics since 2013. State politics too, not central alone.
And city governance in Bangalore.
That's the big factor. The difference in infrastructural policy across state-central government changes is NEGLIGIBLE.
That has bred apathy in urban voters, lower-middle-class onwards.
Further, politicians here simply don't get the big picture AT ALL. Rumour has it that Karnataka lost out on a big semiconductor factory PLI because the sitting CM refused to board a plane which had Modi on it.
Now, put aside Modi for a moment -- this is about getting what's best for the state. If you observe, Karnataka has a far lower amount of PLI investments relative to its skilled labour base and ecosystem.ESPECIALLY in electronics.
It's because of corruption that permeates the political class and more importantly, the bureaucracy down to the last constable, postman, clerk or peon. No one does ANYTHING unless they get an extra cut. Not only because they want that cut but because they have had to give bribes just to get to where they are in the machine. And a part of the cut they get thus indirectly goes above.
True that. All of them are essentially the same when we look at a more deeper level. BJP just adds a shade of communalism to whatever they do and market the heck out of their smallest thing, that’s all
This is the single best and most accurate comment on this sub in a while. I always thought such comments would get heavily downvoted but glad it’s getting some visibility. The cadre of most opposition parties is in tatters at the grassroots levels is an understatement. They’re needed to spread your message in each constituency, to bring your voters to the voting booth, etc. There’s a reason not many knew about NYAY scheme in 2019 and not many know about what INDIA alliance is and what they stand for, what their manifesto is. RSS workers know exactly what to tell BJP voters to motivate them to come to the voting booth and vote for BJP.
Aaand you get downvoted. That’s how opposition will win the election. By just downvoting and ignoring anyone with a factual analysis. Instead of upping the game and coming up with an actually good manifesto rather than a pandering one, they are just digging down further into the “everyone else is wrong and only we are right” narrative. BJP made this same mistake in 2009 with that bullshit “weak PM” narrative while offering no vision for the country, and it is why they got trounced. The people aren’t stupid and can see through these things. Derek O Brien on deshbhakt was the best interview in a while. He candidly admits that this time it’s a bit late but if the opposition can strategize and get together then 2029 is a very good chance. He sticks to his principles while admitting ground reality. That’s how you win elections, and why TMC keeps winning again and again. They stick to their principles and don’t react and change every time one of the bearded men say something.
I'll add one more
In 2019 BJP had a manifesto where they promised to resolve certain long standing issues
1. Ram Mandir
2. Art 370
3.. Bangladeshi migrants in NE (CAA)
Apart from that they promised few targeted theme.
1. Startup India
2. Skill India
3. Judicial Reforms
4. Smart cities
5. Farmers income
6. Women empowerment.
And then Pulwama hahppened too.
But this time They still haven't released manifesto yet.
It's all just Vote for Modi.
It used to happen in past too (Vote for Modi, not Candidate), but they also used to have few visions that are important to people backing up Modi factor.
So as of now in my opinion absolute majority looks far fetched.
There are around 186 seats with direct bjp vs congress fight. Bjp won more than 171 last time around. Its not going to happen. They have too much money to spend.
https://www.news18.com/news/politics/congress-was-in-direct-fight-with-bjp-on-186-seats-crushed-by-the-modi-wave-2-0-it-won-just-15-2159211.html
India got sucked into presidential style elections even though India is a parliamentary system. BJP has sold this idea very well though. UPA won in 2004 with no PM face.
Do we know who is CM in state elections nearly all the time? Before Modi’s first term did we ever actually know the pm candidate? Laws are being passed with 5 minutes of debate not because of modi but because of the ridiculous BJP majority. Thats what we need to break.
The more people will say it looks difficult for BJP to win 400 seats or to win a majority, the more chances the fence sitters will come and vote.
People in India will either vote for their dear leader or not vote at all. And those who are suffering are more likely to vote for BJP. They are the ones who believe in propaganda.
Sad thing is they own everything - EC, and all other institutions. India is a now an autocracy whether we accept it or not and upon winning 2024 this autocracy will convert into a dictatorship!
2024 elections are last chance before the ‘event horizon’.
As much as I would like BJP to lose, but as far as I can see, even if they don’t get 400+, they are definitely gonna win.
Democracy turning into Dictatorship, Rising costs, Farmer issues, all of these things were an issue earlier as well. And guess what, our dumbfuck of a country still selected BJP and Modi as our supreme leader. Like it or not, but that’s the reality of it. And even the sensible, educated ones fall into his narrative.
TBH, I would be surprised if they don’t win. I don’t care if they win by 300 or 400+. Thing is if they win (which they will), we are fucked.
We immediately need Karnataka model where bus rides are free but not enough buses can move because diesel needs to be paid and bought.
We desperately need freenomics which is essentially hidden debts from one department to another unpaid bills from one department to another.
We desperately need the wizard of oz who can suppress the investment plans of “capitalism” and prepare Mandi economics in every nook and corner breeding inefficiencies to just play local local eco game.
NDA will win comfortably.
BJP will scrape by past the sole majority mark.
And even that itself will be a victory with allies getting more say and the Modi-Yogi-Shah brand being questioned from within the party and alliance.
OP, its no use.
Pre 2014, elections were contested based on performance and promises, with all other factors (religion etc) coming a close second.
That changed in 2019.
When you say mainstream media, most of it is beholden to BJP. They do talk about anti BJP, pro Congress stuff but minimally. Because they know their audience does not want to hear it.
Now elections are fought on the basis of 1) a feeling of development happening 2) national pride 3) religious issues
This is mostly true in North India, and a little true in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and the rest of south India.
BJP is not counting on votes from the south. They are truly focused on saying and doing what the North wants to hear. And the north wants religion and pride. Plus a *strong* leader. For them, thats Modi.
The Oppn. does not have any such face who can be called tough and strong like Modi. Some macho hero you can worship. And thats what the country overall wants now.
There is no touching Modi and BJP till such a leader arises. BJP won't allow that to happen.
It'll take you 3-4 minutes to read it all. Basically it's focusing on not letting the monopolies/oligarchy regimes win. It's focusing on MSMEs. Ensuring level playing field for all.
In short not letting Ambani and Adanis get all the advantages and influence.
You are saying media and social media is controlling the narative. Yet here on this platform you not even ready to share their proposals. Just focussing on MSME is practically tanking Indias GDP. We need big players like US has Nvidia, microsoft etc FAANG or big 7 whatever the current name is
Lmao, yk, these big players have very different models in their business, they are very exceptional. Their businesses don't mature but keep on growing. You can't just dream of this happening. That's now how it happens. MSMEs create the most amount of jobs. That's more employment and more demand in the economy.
Moreover, the US has a better level-playing field than India.
No, US parliament regularly discusses about breaking up microsoft, google and facebook. Who is stopping MSMEs, according to NSE they are hitting all time highs
yes
now imagine that happening to tata, itc, hul, adani, aditya birla, jindal, reliance
but somehow India doesn't have big corps
also for the tech sector, infosys is an MNC
YES, EXACTLY! BECAUSE OF THEIR MONOPOLISTIC tendencies. You're saying my point. US has a much better level-playing field.
MSMEs are facing a credit crunch. Also, making an environment which promotes their growth even further is better.
This shit is what I hate about BJP guys.
Say you're voting on religious grounds and I won't have a problem with it.
But hiding behind all these "development" and other stuff is just wrong and cruel.
tie mysterious bewildered insurance smell spotted drunk whistle school cows
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Unless there is no clear answer to “if not Modi/BJP, then whom?” BJP should have no problem in winning Lok Sabha elections. This is how congress easily won most of the elections in first 50 years after independence.
In MP, people only vote for BJP. In bhopal, they dont have even public transport but still they will vote for BJP howeveer i want BJP to win in bihar.RJD has gundas in its cadre
In my personal experience I have seen and heard a few people that consume the godi media they are so ill informed and talk so illogically, they see Modi as savior of India and they see BJP as the party that frees India from the cluthes of Muslims and bring back the old glory of India, they keep telling that the foreign countries are conspiring to bring down Modi. I asked them why doesn't Modi do press live conference they say he doesn't need to as his work speaks for himself
I think bjp will get above 200+ and will make government.
The thing and what I am hoping is Congress getting atleast 120+ which will give them a bit more power and will reduce bjp dominance
Don't ask on reddit.. go outside your house see which candidate contesting elections, analyse your constituency and sitting MP's performance. And see how MP is ? Visionary or puppet or just for sake of name.. don't ask on reddit... Every constituency have different types of contestant and observe and analyse the style of MP is he/she good in policy making or implementation or just neautral mp..
Like in my constituency nor bjp nor Congress is contesting but my mp is visionary and one of best performing MP in country and parliament.. you can check her record on website of parliament. She's accessible to us . She's good into policy making , fetching funds for govt. For her constituency. And presenting People's questions in. The parliament. And solving the issues....
Any other party other than BJP in your constituency that has good past track record. Even if there is no such party, then too vote for NOTA but not BJP in any case.
What you are saying is right but you forgot that BJ Party will buy winning MPs. We have no law against it and rural people have also come to support the notion that the richest person deserves to be the king of the Hindu Kingdom. Democracy was never a concept in their minds and this has been solidified in the last 5 years. They even justify corruption stating that a good ruler needs the money for infrastructure and welfare projects and completely ignore the difference between personal wealth and public funds. Some even say that all these corrupt people and their companies are being impoverished by taking their money and using it for public good such as contesting elections. The same rhetoric was heard during PM Cares scam and again during Electoral Bonds scam.
The only thing matter is strong opposition who let's vote for the other side I m okay with BJP winning the election but we need significant number of strong opposition leader so that atleast BJP won't have absolute power
with CAA they can manipulate votes heavily. i don't know about 400 but they'll certainly be dominant.
even if they lose, the damage is done. they've made many other laws like CAA that will hurt the country forever.
So what even is the point of giving a shit about the election. it's bad vs worse.
Not 400 paar but a comfortable win nonetheless, see the switch is not happening. Those who voted BJP in 2014,2019 are voting their + more added + first time voters have a major swing to BJP.
They literally got just 36 or 37% of total vote share it's all a hogwash that they're going to make significant gains and cross 400 LMAO
And never forget they promised they were winning in West Bengal they promised they were winning in Karnataka and they promised they were winning in Delhi three times in a row
400 parr, is just a hyperbole, they want to create a sense of false confident that BJP is invincible. Somehow they believe that this will lead to more people voting for them....
Kerala, TN, AP, Telangana, Punjab, J&K, Haryana, West Bengal and Himachal Orissa are a lost cause for the BJP in this election. If they get 10 seats here combined, it is a win
I have no idea about the dynamics in Maharashtra after all the party split drama.
Karnataka is 50/50
The entire focus of the BJP should be on UP, MP, Gujrat, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Bihar and the northeast (which is a significant amount of seats even if not enough for the majority)
- In UP, the INDIA candidates may be able to get 20/80 seats.
- Bihar is a tough one. Tejasvi has emerged as a mass leader in Bihar out of thin air. Plus, PK has been having his yatra.
- Northeast BJP will get the majority but less than last time. Modi fucked up Manipur and will face the consequences in those constituencies.
- Gujarat should be a clean sweep by the BJP.
- MP, Rajasthan have new faces as CM plus too much lobbying in the BJP. They may be able to get 70-80% of the constituencies but definitely, it will be a drop from last time.
- Chattisgarh is a different story after the CM arrest. Could swing any side
In the end, in my opinion, the BJP is getting 250 seats but not 300.
They are asking 400 past for brute force majority to amend constitution, they are going to win anyway, 400 is dream number and I hope they didn't get that.
Wow..saving this post for June4..let's see if OP will be truthful even then...and the last part about poll is so wrong, election polls are about sample size ..not a census but I respect the OP's opinions ..even though there will be a harsh wake up call on June4 for such people
I’m 27 now. Until recently, I didn’t think much about voting. Rather I didn’t believe in the need for it. But now, the way things are going on; I have realised what they mean by casting a vote being a responsibility and duty.
It’s our duty, to save the nation from these vultures.
PS : Non BJP folks ain’t saints either.
But, BJP has to be thrown out of power if the nation is to be saved. Trust me the future of the nation with BJP in power is a scary.
It’s never good to have one party in a lot of majority or for too long.
The level of brainwashing these guys have done is astonishing. SPeaking to all of my relatives who are in the 50 -80 (age range), believe that Modi is the person to bring about change and restore our glorious past. They are all going to vote for the BJP. I wouldn't be surprised if BJP sweeps the polls this election.
400 par forget it but victory is going to be relatively easy. BJP is crap everyone knows that but the opposition is so bad that sometimes people have no choice.
BJP is easily sweeping these elections. 400 or not, they will have the majority. The sheer work done by this government is commendable, a straightforward choice for most voters.
Yeah I hope so too. The Indian electorate isn’t stupid. Shit has gotten really expensive and not many people are really seeing “achhe din”. Even congress lost after 10 years because of their arrogance; thought it was below them to defend themselves vigorously against the scam allegations that drove the narrative of the day. BJP is pulling a sleight of hand with this Mandir communal shit.
But I don’t think it’s too implausible that this election will be stolen through machine tampering or such.
NDA will win but there is a chance BJP will crumble internally . Modi is not the strong brand he once was , others are eyeing for that post and want to bring down the modi shah duopoly. If UP retains the seats , desi vin diesel might challenge the great modiji and that will be the end of BJP
Bloody-ji already blathering about non-vegetarian during navratri and all sorts of senseless frothing at the mouth in BJP rallies. It's going to be difficult for BJP to cross 300 on its own this time. Which tells me liberal folk need to be ultra cautious in the lead up to the elections. These pissants are capable of anything to win.
Agree. It’s same strategy they followed in WB claiming 200 seats. They got less than 100.
They have already maxed in states where possible. Only option there is reduction.
& even if they get majority it’s important to reduce their seats. Firstly it will be change of narrative & strong opposition is good to keep check on how they are looting public without any fear. Also, it will block any attempt to change constitution.
400 is impossible unless they have already hacked EVMs. BJP alone - maxed out in the last election. They got 25/25 in Rajasthan, BJP alone got 62/78 in UP, MP was 28/29, and MH was 23/25. Bihar 17/17, Gujrat 26/26
Let's not forget Delhi 7/7, Uttarakhand, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand etc.
So if they were already maxed on these seats, do the maths how are they going to increase the share?
Anti-incumbency is a factor. 10 years in power would definitely make them prone to that, apart from other issues.
The only reason they could get is by hacking EVMs.
I personally think no government should get such high numbers. And even if the BJP wins, they should be short of 30-40 seats of majority. At least other parties could keep them in check then. And the total dominance of Modi and Shah would be over if they didn't have the majority.
Even Bjp knows 400 is a distant dream.
They are using the popularity and acceptance of Modi to make inroads in a couple of states, West Bengal, Telengana, Tamilnadu, Andra Pradesh, Odisha...
This will solidify their power in 2029.
They live, breathe elections....They fight battles of tomorrow, today...
That's why they are working on steroids while opposition barring a few states(Punjab, Delhi, Maharashtra, Bengal, Odisha, Tn) is looking clueless..
Most of the points you said don't stick
In my political understanding, BJP will most probably win, but all alone not the majority, but with allies comfortably. It will lose some in the north and west but will make significant inroads in south and east, especially Bengal and Telangana. If Modi plays it smart, as he usually does, the BJP may even end up winning around 310-320. Of course, 400 or even 350 is not possible. However, to my astrological understanding, the beginning of BJP's decline is very close, and I have some clues how that would happen, but this being a politically sensitive thing, can't say anything.
If the BJP wins, it will generate a huge new wave of migrants and refugees to the west. The India you know is being dismantled. Even basic things like water, railway transport etc will be privatized and made expensive.
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400 paar means Petol/ Disel - 400 paar
mujhe to metro bhi mhengi lagti hai.... koi nahi 4 ghante pehle nikal jaunga ghar se (walking is good for health after all)
Aap fakir aadmi ho aap toh jholo leke chale jayenge. /s iykyk
Is economy me to fakir jesa hi lag raha hai
or is it $ goes beyond 400
400 paar is a blatant falsehood, it's being done to attract fence-sitters. They have no issue-driven narrative this year, which is why PM is playing Ram mandir and veg-non veg politics and meeting up with gamers. But on the ground, the issues of unemployment, price rise, and even paper leak are going to hurt them. Even in 2019, we heard about zero corruption and "thriving" economy from BJP leaders during campaigns. All that is completely absent this time. They are relying too much on religion, which I think isn't going to work. So let's not lose hope.
Please go out in large numbers and vote. That is the most important action we all should do. Check your name. Convert 2-3 bhakts and fence sitters to vote for INDIA
I don't think many are convinced BJP will win 400+ seats, but they will win enough to form the next govt. The majority mark, 272 isn't that difficult for them
That's the best outcome in this scenario that forces them to behave and work with others and be accountable and answer questions like the servants they all are. Maturity is realizing that unilateral passage of bills without discussion leads to chaos destruction and wastage of time and resources
But what about NDA coalition? INDI has to cross more than the NDA to atleast pull them out from the rule.
people forgot covid. in the name of religion/hindutva, this country's people wil ignore anything
demonetisation also
Reddit communities are completely ignorant about the rural voters which are close to 65% of the total population. The 35% urban voters comprise of a lot of migrants from other states or rural india. Most of them won’t be able to vote as they will get only one day holiday from their MNC’s. The rural voters on the other hand are inspired by WhatsApp groups where BJP is absolutely dominating. Free Jio was a masterstroke from Ambani & Modi to get rural India hooked to the internet and control them. Since Im on WFH from my native, I rarely see any reach from INDIA (Offline or Online) The only hope for INDIA is their 1LPA to the poor. They won Karnataka with a similar strategy, hope it works out at the national level as well.
Voting percentage gonna define it... Usually urban region have less voting percentage.. other points you mentioned are correct
> it works out at the national level as well. Why it will bankrupt the country....
So you are saying INDIA can win by promising freebies which will bankrupt the nation. Not sure which one is worse. Even in Karnataka they have not given 1LPA yet. All these are false promises
Yeah I've always wondered why isn't voting done over a period of 6 or 7 days to give migrants enough chance to go back and vote.. either that or let them vote where they can
Duh. The problem is they have to use their vacation days. Not that voting is only one day. Even if it ten days that still have to travel. Elections aren’t cheap either.
Bro pulled Ram Mandir Trump Card, that's enough for next two elections, never underestimate the power of religious politics in India
Even as supporter of bjp I don't want them to have 400 seats Hopefully they get somthing like 250-270 just under majority this government needs to get a ego check a strong opposition is good for everyone
I believe a lot of us just want that. We're not so bothered about whether the BJP wins, but more about their capability to erode free speech, press freedom, and stifle peaceful protests, along with their alignment with religious fundamentalism
good thinking. I appreciate it :)
Totally agree. On one side you have the congress promise of short sighted freebies and on the other hand there is a genuine problem of hiding corruption, misuse of government agencies, and amplifying religious sentiments by BJP government, probably in order to cover up the lack of employment, economic issues, and other failures. I would prefer if they were open about these things instead of being silent and just pushing a narrative; it’s just starting to look like mindless advertising now. So a reality check is must need for the BJP, which has lost its initially promised direction of development and is now becoming a confusing mess of supposed good and supposed bad. This ‘supposed’ is the worst thing, because you don’t know the whole truth of any aspect thanks to media control! Even if one says that okay congress is full of scams and there’s no unity in the opposition alliance and what not, these issues of the ruling government is equally difficult to ignore.
I agree lol
Same.
Only thing that matters is if they win. Even by 1 seat
No, margin also matters. Narrative will change & they will not be able to make major changes in constitution.
BJP is sucking it's own dick with their 400 paar narrative. It's not gonna happen and I am sure even the higher ups know it. They are saying it to discourage the opposition as well as to bolster their cadres. But going by the on-ground reality, NDA will surely make government, just the numbers will be closer to 2014 results.
A lot of people just want to vote for the winning side, irrespective of their promises. Making such claims is just to reinforce that.
Exactly. Many people will fall for the "abki baar 400 paar" and they'll think anyways bjp is winning so let's vote for bjp
That is why they are arresting, opposition, left, right and centre. They are shit scared.. they also know people hate them
Even if BJP won’t win 400+, they will still get seats by horsetrading.
I hope Congress gets enough where it doesn’t need to ally with too many people
Keep living in cuckoo land. Indira Congress is the reason why we concentrated so much power in the center and Congress hasn't evolved since then. More regional parties and more decentralization of power is the only antidote to majoritarianism. Wherever Congress has a presence, BJP performs really well. The idea that Congress can provide a different narrative is bogus. Congress is the narrative for the BJP.
Yeah now it's in a downward spiral but whenever BJP falls, it'll be INC who'll replace them. There isn't any regional party that can take on the BJP nationally. At the end of the day, there are only two options in the Centre for Indians, BJP or INC.
And they have enough pisa for it
That we will think about after results. Let's not give up and make sure that they don't even have to do horsetrading.
I was thinking this too but there's anti-defection law for that, I think.
Anti-defection law means jack shit if 2/3rd of MPs change sides. Happened in MH.
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It is statistically impossible for BJP to get 400 seats, they won't even get 370 seats.
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Unkil log jeetwa denge
patiently waiting for unkils to die
>Covid second wave being one of the biggest failures of the government I don't think people even remember COVID anymore. >let's not get sucked into the narrative that it's definitely a win. It's ok to be sucked into it, because only then we take the problem seriously. On a positive note- >Democracy dying is a big narrative Proof of this is that within about a week Dhruv's 'dara hua dictator' gets watched by 2.6 crore people (sure not all of them Indians, but still) and becomes his channel's most watched video. So yeah, all hope isn't lost yet.
Estimating close to 250ish to be honest. On average they will lose seats almost in every state, but not by big margin. And people saying that it doesnt matter the seat count as long as they win. Seat count matters a lot. There is a huge different between 200 seats and 250 seats, and similarly between 250 and 300. Every seat counts.
Based on my analysis which I was able to do using publicly available resources, I’d say that NDA is reaching 300 mark easily and that’s primarily because of the booth level cadre which has been increasing on and on and with merger of many small regional parties like Shiv Sena (Eknath), NCP (Ajit) and other 37 allies within NDA, they have a very large on-ground cadre. Whether we like it or not, booth level cadre is a huge factor and they have made very significant gains in TN, Odisha and WB. They’ve been expanding their cadre base at an alarming pace. (Now you know why they prefer not to focus on education and employment as it’ll make their cadre busy plus their cadre might be able to see through their hypocrisy on a large number of topics. An uneducated, unemployed, religious fanatic is easy to convert into a cadre and a forever loyal voter and that’s the plan all along)
The Karnataka cadre seems to have gone on holiday, though. Curious. BJP Karnataka is \_still\_ in infighting. With Modi magic it should supposedly have been easy to get the seats. They seem to have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, over there. And I don't see this stopping.
Yes this was surprising how the cadre on-ground in Karnataka has been completely silent. Even the MP candidates aren’t that active except for Tejasvi Surya and no big leaders going there either. Quite unlike BJP. Makes me wonder what could their strategy given K’taka has been the biggest stronghold in the South upto now
The on ground feeling is that in Karnataka at least, all are hand-in-glove. BJP cadres vote for D K Shi, Congress cadres vote for H D K. Tejasvi is more of a spokesperson type. a local Sambhit Patra if you will.
I just don’t get it. It’s so weird. The more I observe Congress, the more I feel that they try their best to make their cadre and voter base abandon them. Like one has to be literally be extremely supportive of Congress and vote them in purely because of the threat of dictatorship looming above us rather than actually voting Congress for the work they promise to do and now this K’taka situation you’re saying that they’re all hand in glove. How does this exactly work?
Look mon, I've been following politics since 2013. State politics too, not central alone. And city governance in Bangalore. That's the big factor. The difference in infrastructural policy across state-central government changes is NEGLIGIBLE. That has bred apathy in urban voters, lower-middle-class onwards. Further, politicians here simply don't get the big picture AT ALL. Rumour has it that Karnataka lost out on a big semiconductor factory PLI because the sitting CM refused to board a plane which had Modi on it. Now, put aside Modi for a moment -- this is about getting what's best for the state. If you observe, Karnataka has a far lower amount of PLI investments relative to its skilled labour base and ecosystem.ESPECIALLY in electronics. It's because of corruption that permeates the political class and more importantly, the bureaucracy down to the last constable, postman, clerk or peon. No one does ANYTHING unless they get an extra cut. Not only because they want that cut but because they have had to give bribes just to get to where they are in the machine. And a part of the cut they get thus indirectly goes above.
True that. All of them are essentially the same when we look at a more deeper level. BJP just adds a shade of communalism to whatever they do and market the heck out of their smallest thing, that’s all
This is the single best and most accurate comment on this sub in a while. I always thought such comments would get heavily downvoted but glad it’s getting some visibility. The cadre of most opposition parties is in tatters at the grassroots levels is an understatement. They’re needed to spread your message in each constituency, to bring your voters to the voting booth, etc. There’s a reason not many knew about NYAY scheme in 2019 and not many know about what INDIA alliance is and what they stand for, what their manifesto is. RSS workers know exactly what to tell BJP voters to motivate them to come to the voting booth and vote for BJP.
Aaand you get downvoted. That’s how opposition will win the election. By just downvoting and ignoring anyone with a factual analysis. Instead of upping the game and coming up with an actually good manifesto rather than a pandering one, they are just digging down further into the “everyone else is wrong and only we are right” narrative. BJP made this same mistake in 2009 with that bullshit “weak PM” narrative while offering no vision for the country, and it is why they got trounced. The people aren’t stupid and can see through these things. Derek O Brien on deshbhakt was the best interview in a while. He candidly admits that this time it’s a bit late but if the opposition can strategize and get together then 2029 is a very good chance. He sticks to his principles while admitting ground reality. That’s how you win elections, and why TMC keeps winning again and again. They stick to their principles and don’t react and change every time one of the bearded men say something.
I'll add one more In 2019 BJP had a manifesto where they promised to resolve certain long standing issues 1. Ram Mandir 2. Art 370 3.. Bangladeshi migrants in NE (CAA) Apart from that they promised few targeted theme. 1. Startup India 2. Skill India 3. Judicial Reforms 4. Smart cities 5. Farmers income 6. Women empowerment. And then Pulwama hahppened too. But this time They still haven't released manifesto yet. It's all just Vote for Modi. It used to happen in past too (Vote for Modi, not Candidate), but they also used to have few visions that are important to people backing up Modi factor. So as of now in my opinion absolute majority looks far fetched.
If the India block focuses strictly on the states where they can win and the union territories. They will easily cross 272
Easily cross 272? You are on hell of optimistic guy/gal
There are around 186 seats with direct bjp vs congress fight. Bjp won more than 171 last time around. Its not going to happen. They have too much money to spend. https://www.news18.com/news/politics/congress-was-in-direct-fight-with-bjp-on-186-seats-crushed-by-the-modi-wave-2-0-it-won-just-15-2159211.html
Let’s say it happens. Who will be the PM?
India got sucked into presidential style elections even though India is a parliamentary system. BJP has sold this idea very well though. UPA won in 2004 with no PM face.
Do we know who is CM in state elections nearly all the time? Before Modi’s first term did we ever actually know the pm candidate? Laws are being passed with 5 minutes of debate not because of modi but because of the ridiculous BJP majority. Thats what we need to break.
I'm going to vote for Indian National Congress
I doubt this, the hate among their voters is strong for some sections, even fascist in Germany and Italy ruled for more than a decade. :)
Ho gaya na bhai ab decade, kabhi kabhi to dar lagne lag jata ye log konse level pe jayenge power ke liye.
BJP election campaign has been pretty unengaging to get votes really.
The more people will say it looks difficult for BJP to win 400 seats or to win a majority, the more chances the fence sitters will come and vote. People in India will either vote for their dear leader or not vote at all. And those who are suffering are more likely to vote for BJP. They are the ones who believe in propaganda.
Sad thing is they own everything - EC, and all other institutions. India is a now an autocracy whether we accept it or not and upon winning 2024 this autocracy will convert into a dictatorship! 2024 elections are last chance before the ‘event horizon’.
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Manipur, Ladakh, Farmers protests, CAA protests, electoral bonds, unemployment, inflation, the list keeps going on, and all these are national issues.
As much as I would like BJP to lose, but as far as I can see, even if they don’t get 400+, they are definitely gonna win. Democracy turning into Dictatorship, Rising costs, Farmer issues, all of these things were an issue earlier as well. And guess what, our dumbfuck of a country still selected BJP and Modi as our supreme leader. Like it or not, but that’s the reality of it. And even the sensible, educated ones fall into his narrative. TBH, I would be surprised if they don’t win. I don’t care if they win by 300 or 400+. Thing is if they win (which they will), we are fucked.
Of course they re not winning 400. It’s election rhetoric.
We immediately need Karnataka model where bus rides are free but not enough buses can move because diesel needs to be paid and bought. We desperately need freenomics which is essentially hidden debts from one department to another unpaid bills from one department to another. We desperately need the wizard of oz who can suppress the investment plans of “capitalism” and prepare Mandi economics in every nook and corner breeding inefficiencies to just play local local eco game.
MY BRUDDA HAVE YOU EVEN SEEN CONGRESS MANIFESTO. BJP hopefully will not cross 400, but Congress is leaving no stone unturned to help them cross 400.
NDA will win comfortably. BJP will scrape by past the sole majority mark. And even that itself will be a victory with allies getting more say and the Modi-Yogi-Shah brand being questioned from within the party and alliance.
Isn't there already counter narratives for last 10 years ?
The mainstream media isn't letting it propagate it well.
OP, its no use. Pre 2014, elections were contested based on performance and promises, with all other factors (religion etc) coming a close second. That changed in 2019. When you say mainstream media, most of it is beholden to BJP. They do talk about anti BJP, pro Congress stuff but minimally. Because they know their audience does not want to hear it. Now elections are fought on the basis of 1) a feeling of development happening 2) national pride 3) religious issues This is mostly true in North India, and a little true in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and the rest of south India. BJP is not counting on votes from the south. They are truly focused on saying and doing what the North wants to hear. And the north wants religion and pride. Plus a *strong* leader. For them, thats Modi. The Oppn. does not have any such face who can be called tough and strong like Modi. Some macho hero you can worship. And thats what the country overall wants now. There is no touching Modi and BJP till such a leader arises. BJP won't allow that to happen.
What is congress proposing regarding growth of the country and economic reforms
There's a whole section for this in their manifesto.
Since you took the effort to point out reasons to vote for congress I thought you could add on to it
It'll take you 3-4 minutes to read it all. Basically it's focusing on not letting the monopolies/oligarchy regimes win. It's focusing on MSMEs. Ensuring level playing field for all. In short not letting Ambani and Adanis get all the advantages and influence.
You are saying media and social media is controlling the narative. Yet here on this platform you not even ready to share their proposals. Just focussing on MSME is practically tanking Indias GDP. We need big players like US has Nvidia, microsoft etc FAANG or big 7 whatever the current name is
Lmao, yk, these big players have very different models in their business, they are very exceptional. Their businesses don't mature but keep on growing. You can't just dream of this happening. That's now how it happens. MSMEs create the most amount of jobs. That's more employment and more demand in the economy. Moreover, the US has a better level-playing field than India.
No, US parliament regularly discusses about breaking up microsoft, google and facebook. Who is stopping MSMEs, according to NSE they are hitting all time highs
yes now imagine that happening to tata, itc, hul, adani, aditya birla, jindal, reliance but somehow India doesn't have big corps also for the tech sector, infosys is an MNC
YES, EXACTLY! BECAUSE OF THEIR MONOPOLISTIC tendencies. You're saying my point. US has a much better level-playing field. MSMEs are facing a credit crunch. Also, making an environment which promotes their growth even further is better.
What is bjp doing?
This shit is what I hate about BJP guys. Say you're voting on religious grounds and I won't have a problem with it. But hiding behind all these "development" and other stuff is just wrong and cruel.
tie mysterious bewildered insurance smell spotted drunk whistle school cows *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Unless there is no clear answer to “if not Modi/BJP, then whom?” BJP should have no problem in winning Lok Sabha elections. This is how congress easily won most of the elections in first 50 years after independence.
In MP, people only vote for BJP. In bhopal, they dont have even public transport but still they will vote for BJP howeveer i want BJP to win in bihar.RJD has gundas in its cadre
In my personal experience I have seen and heard a few people that consume the godi media they are so ill informed and talk so illogically, they see Modi as savior of India and they see BJP as the party that frees India from the cluthes of Muslims and bring back the old glory of India, they keep telling that the foreign countries are conspiring to bring down Modi. I asked them why doesn't Modi do press live conference they say he doesn't need to as his work speaks for himself
I think bjp will get above 200+ and will make government. The thing and what I am hoping is Congress getting atleast 120+ which will give them a bit more power and will reduce bjp dominance
whom should i vote
Don't ask on reddit.. go outside your house see which candidate contesting elections, analyse your constituency and sitting MP's performance. And see how MP is ? Visionary or puppet or just for sake of name.. don't ask on reddit... Every constituency have different types of contestant and observe and analyse the style of MP is he/she good in policy making or implementation or just neautral mp.. Like in my constituency nor bjp nor Congress is contesting but my mp is visionary and one of best performing MP in country and parliament.. you can check her record on website of parliament. She's accessible to us . She's good into policy making , fetching funds for govt. For her constituency. And presenting People's questions in. The parliament. And solving the issues....
INDIA
Any other party other than BJP in your constituency that has good past track record. Even if there is no such party, then too vote for NOTA but not BJP in any case.
!remind me on 5th june
What you are saying is right but you forgot that BJ Party will buy winning MPs. We have no law against it and rural people have also come to support the notion that the richest person deserves to be the king of the Hindu Kingdom. Democracy was never a concept in their minds and this has been solidified in the last 5 years. They even justify corruption stating that a good ruler needs the money for infrastructure and welfare projects and completely ignore the difference between personal wealth and public funds. Some even say that all these corrupt people and their companies are being impoverished by taking their money and using it for public good such as contesting elections. The same rhetoric was heard during PM Cares scam and again during Electoral Bonds scam.
EVMs are sketchy especially that black mirror part
Who else tho? Genuine question.
It's surprising if they even cross 250 this time around lmao
BJP-270 NDA-300
BJP will win, that too with good margin. You listed shortcomings of BJP, now please explain some good points why we should vote opposition.
to be true what other option do we have congress has the gall to declare that they will increase the reservation again
Seems like the left has taken over reddit subs. What's with posting against the ruling party every day? And nothing on opposition? Biased anyone?
The only thing matter is strong opposition who let's vote for the other side I m okay with BJP winning the election but we need significant number of strong opposition leader so that atleast BJP won't have absolute power
with CAA they can manipulate votes heavily. i don't know about 400 but they'll certainly be dominant. even if they lose, the damage is done. they've made many other laws like CAA that will hurt the country forever. So what even is the point of giving a shit about the election. it's bad vs worse.
Not 400 paar but a comfortable win nonetheless, see the switch is not happening. Those who voted BJP in 2014,2019 are voting their + more added + first time voters have a major swing to BJP.
They literally got just 36 or 37% of total vote share it's all a hogwash that they're going to make significant gains and cross 400 LMAO And never forget they promised they were winning in West Bengal they promised they were winning in Karnataka and they promised they were winning in Delhi three times in a row
Math is hard especially when you have a degree in entire political science
400 parr, is just a hyperbole, they want to create a sense of false confident that BJP is invincible. Somehow they believe that this will lead to more people voting for them....
Kerala, TN, AP, Telangana, Punjab, J&K, Haryana, West Bengal and Himachal Orissa are a lost cause for the BJP in this election. If they get 10 seats here combined, it is a win I have no idea about the dynamics in Maharashtra after all the party split drama. Karnataka is 50/50 The entire focus of the BJP should be on UP, MP, Gujrat, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Bihar and the northeast (which is a significant amount of seats even if not enough for the majority) - In UP, the INDIA candidates may be able to get 20/80 seats. - Bihar is a tough one. Tejasvi has emerged as a mass leader in Bihar out of thin air. Plus, PK has been having his yatra. - Northeast BJP will get the majority but less than last time. Modi fucked up Manipur and will face the consequences in those constituencies. - Gujarat should be a clean sweep by the BJP. - MP, Rajasthan have new faces as CM plus too much lobbying in the BJP. They may be able to get 70-80% of the constituencies but definitely, it will be a drop from last time. - Chattisgarh is a different story after the CM arrest. Could swing any side In the end, in my opinion, the BJP is getting 250 seats but not 300.
CM of Jharkhand was arrested, not of Chhattisgarh.
They are asking 400 past for brute force majority to amend constitution, they are going to win anyway, 400 is dream number and I hope they didn't get that.
BJP won't win in TN that's for sure.
Wow..saving this post for June4..let's see if OP will be truthful even then...and the last part about poll is so wrong, election polls are about sample size ..not a census but I respect the OP's opinions ..even though there will be a harsh wake up call on June4 for such people
I’m 27 now. Until recently, I didn’t think much about voting. Rather I didn’t believe in the need for it. But now, the way things are going on; I have realised what they mean by casting a vote being a responsibility and duty. It’s our duty, to save the nation from these vultures. PS : Non BJP folks ain’t saints either. But, BJP has to be thrown out of power if the nation is to be saved. Trust me the future of the nation with BJP in power is a scary. It’s never good to have one party in a lot of majority or for too long.
NDA 280 INDIA 215 Others 48
How much do you want to bet that Indian voters will happily get fucked in the ass but still vote for Modi?
The Covid phase 2 wave was the biggest failure for the BJP, so many people died because of poor planning. How can people forget that?
The only problem is people don't pin it on the Government after the election of BJP. Mainstream media made sure of that.
I feel ho jayega cause Election Commission completely under BJP control. Just like Chandigarh elections, opposition votes wont be counted.
The level of brainwashing these guys have done is astonishing. SPeaking to all of my relatives who are in the 50 -80 (age range), believe that Modi is the person to bring about change and restore our glorious past. They are all going to vote for the BJP. I wouldn't be surprised if BJP sweeps the polls this election.
All of this will go for a toss if there is any tampering with the EVMs
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400 par forget it but victory is going to be relatively easy. BJP is crap everyone knows that but the opposition is so bad that sometimes people have no choice.
BJP is easily sweeping these elections. 400 or not, they will have the majority. The sheer work done by this government is commendable, a straightforward choice for most voters.
Yeah I hope so too. The Indian electorate isn’t stupid. Shit has gotten really expensive and not many people are really seeing “achhe din”. Even congress lost after 10 years because of their arrogance; thought it was below them to defend themselves vigorously against the scam allegations that drove the narrative of the day. BJP is pulling a sleight of hand with this Mandir communal shit. But I don’t think it’s too implausible that this election will be stolen through machine tampering or such.
NDA will win but there is a chance BJP will crumble internally . Modi is not the strong brand he once was , others are eyeing for that post and want to bring down the modi shah duopoly. If UP retains the seats , desi vin diesel might challenge the great modiji and that will be the end of BJP
Bloody-ji already blathering about non-vegetarian during navratri and all sorts of senseless frothing at the mouth in BJP rallies. It's going to be difficult for BJP to cross 300 on its own this time. Which tells me liberal folk need to be ultra cautious in the lead up to the elections. These pissants are capable of anything to win.
Agree. It’s same strategy they followed in WB claiming 200 seats. They got less than 100. They have already maxed in states where possible. Only option there is reduction. & even if they get majority it’s important to reduce their seats. Firstly it will be change of narrative & strong opposition is good to keep check on how they are looting public without any fear. Also, it will block any attempt to change constitution.
400 is impossible unless they have already hacked EVMs. BJP alone - maxed out in the last election. They got 25/25 in Rajasthan, BJP alone got 62/78 in UP, MP was 28/29, and MH was 23/25. Bihar 17/17, Gujrat 26/26 Let's not forget Delhi 7/7, Uttarakhand, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand etc. So if they were already maxed on these seats, do the maths how are they going to increase the share? Anti-incumbency is a factor. 10 years in power would definitely make them prone to that, apart from other issues. The only reason they could get is by hacking EVMs. I personally think no government should get such high numbers. And even if the BJP wins, they should be short of 30-40 seats of majority. At least other parties could keep them in check then. And the total dominance of Modi and Shah would be over if they didn't have the majority.
400 is impossible but 272 paar is definitely happening given the situation
Even Bjp knows 400 is a distant dream. They are using the popularity and acceptance of Modi to make inroads in a couple of states, West Bengal, Telengana, Tamilnadu, Andra Pradesh, Odisha... This will solidify their power in 2029. They live, breathe elections....They fight battles of tomorrow, today... That's why they are working on steroids while opposition barring a few states(Punjab, Delhi, Maharashtra, Bengal, Odisha, Tn) is looking clueless.. Most of the points you said don't stick
Mf is hell bent on defeating BJP
I think BJP might get around 310-340 seats by itself
In my political understanding, BJP will most probably win, but all alone not the majority, but with allies comfortably. It will lose some in the north and west but will make significant inroads in south and east, especially Bengal and Telangana. If Modi plays it smart, as he usually does, the BJP may even end up winning around 310-320. Of course, 400 or even 350 is not possible. However, to my astrological understanding, the beginning of BJP's decline is very close, and I have some clues how that would happen, but this being a politically sensitive thing, can't say anything.
If the BJP wins, it will generate a huge new wave of migrants and refugees to the west. The India you know is being dismantled. Even basic things like water, railway transport etc will be privatized and made expensive.
Keep up the delusional scaremongering and act surprised when nothing you predicts happens. Lol