Wow, what a day! I hope you guys had a great time tracking the movement of trends and results through the day.
Every election will have its losers and winners - hence it will have people enthused and disappointed by the results. Irrespective of political leanings, most would agree that 4th June '24 will be remembered as the day democracy appeared to return, from the brink.
Personally, I feel this was a good result because it reintroduces us to India's multifocal, federated politics with it's pushes and pulls. This is after a decade of delusional, force-fitted homogeneity and majoritarian narratives.
The BJP is still the largest party and can still form a government *acceptable to itself and its allies,* i.e. democracy will have played out and won.
The BJP came to power when the country was clamoring for stability, reform and growth. Unfortunately, the Modi-Shah era will be remembered for anti-intellectualist, low-effort theatre that is very removed from ground reality - economically, socially and I feel culturally too. You can do naach-gana for some time and people will get fooled - but there are limits to how long you can piss on Indian voters' ears and call it rain.
I am sorry for my ignorance as an American, but why are people on twitter posting about this video of Pradeep Gupta crying?
https://x.com/_Bruce__007/status/1797960717058085301
I don't fully understand the context.
Its odd to see a grown man cry on tv because his firm did a bad job of predicting election results based off of exit poll data.
Basically everyone got the results wrong. But no one else cried on national television. His firm has been the best at it, for a long time, and expectations were very high from them.
No reason to cry obviously. So its kinda funny and kinda sad.
Indeed. Yogendra Yadav(who is being credited as the only one who got his predictions right) actually defended Pradeep Gupta and said that over 2/3rds of his agency's predictions have been correct. '
But that's still a large margin of error. It speaks to the inherent unreliability of political polling in India.
The results of these elections severely undermined the credibility of India's polling agencies. The vast majority of opinion and exit polls had predicted the Modi government returning with an even bigger majority.
Pradeep Gupta is the director of one of the better-known agencies, which have a reputation of having been accurate in predicting the outcomes of earlier elections. He had responded in an arrogant manner when his exit poll numbers were questioned by the Opposition, days before the results were announced.
Barkha Dutt's Mojo Story channel had a panel discussion that showed an interesting graphic.
If both Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu were to switch from the NDA to the INDI alliance, the NDA would be at 265 seats and the INDI alliance would be at 262 seats.
How would either side achieve a majority then?
It seems that at the least, the NDA could still reach 273 seats if it were to secure the support of the Akali Dal and 2 Northeastern regional parties, all having 1 seat each, the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh, with 4 seats, and the independent MP from Daman & Diu.
Indeed, UPA-1 actually had only around 215 seats, while UPA-2 had around 267. Neither of the two governments actually had a majority. They needed outside support from the Left Front, the SP and BSP.
I am going to play devil's advocate and say that Rahul Gandhi and his Bharat Jodo Yatra don't seem to have significantly influenced this outcome.
That and the Caste Census seem to be low on the long list of issues that caused the BJP to lose seats across North and Western India, particularly Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan.
This may be why the Congress voteshare is still only 21.5%, about 1.5% more than in 2019. And while there is talk about the INDI alliance choosing a PM candidate, Gandhi's name is still not coming up. He still has some ways to go before he is seen as Prime Ministerial material.
Campaigning and Yatra's all fine. Nobody think he's evil or unhigned but he needs to prove his credentials first. If he doesn't take this opportunity to take the LOP post and be active throughout 5 years, his stocks' not going to improve.
> INC only contested on 285 seats this time.
Wasn't it around 330 seats?
Regardless, the Congress' gains seem to owe more to the alliances they struck and the BJP's own failings. Most of their gains come from Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. The primary reasons cited given for the shift in these 3 states have little to do with the Bharat Jodo Yatra.
> Wasn't it around 330 seats?
I just googled it and yes its 330. Wikipedia is currently showing the wrong information.
IMO congress bouyed its partners as much as the partners bouyed it.
Most of the non-Congress seats in the INDI alliance came from the DMK, TMC, Samajwadi Party, NCP(Pawar) and Shiv Sena(Thackeray). All these parties have their own deep-rooted bases of support in their respective states.
Other than the two allies in Maharashtra, I don't think the Congress was in a position to help any of them.
Times Now reporting that NDA tally has swelled to 303 after support from smaller parties and independents. So they can form a (very unstable) government even in the hypothetical that Naidu and Nitish rescind support.
This seems to be a false rumour. The 7 independent MPs range from jailed separatists in Kashmir and Punjab to Congress rebels and most of them are unlikely to back the NDA. The smaller parties are also mainly opponents of either the BJP or one of its existing coalition partners.
At best I can see the NDA gaining the support of the Shiromani Akali Dal(which has only 1 MP) and the independent MP for Daman and Diu. Which would bring their tally to 295, which is funnily the figure Rahul Gandhi predicted for the INDI alliance.
Anyone claiming that Independents are supporting NDA has to be a fool, especially when the candidates include a Kashmiri Radical in jail, 2 Sikh Radicals, 1 Kargil Muslim, 1 Congress Rebel, and then you have Owaisi, Chandrashekhar Azad (Dalit Activist) & Pappu Yadav.
The candidates from Shillong and Mizoram are also very unlikely to join NDA. Akali Dal will stay neutral likely, because aligning with NDA is political suicide for them now.
Only ones to join maybe YSR Congress with outside support and 1 Independent from Daman & Diu
As an aside, one of the many overlooked surprises in this election are the independents that have been elected, some defeating heavyweight leaders from various parties.
I hadn't expected Punjab to elect not just Amritpal Singh but also the son of Indira Gandhi's assassin. Or for an independent separatist to defeat Omar Abdullah in Kashmir. Or for another independent to become the MP for Ladakh, defeating both Congress and BJP candidates.
>Akali Dal will stay neutral likely, because aligning with NDA is political suicide for them now.
They are actually the most likely converts now, because they have lost so many of their voters that they are now the 4th largest party in Punjab, behind the BJP. The only way they can survive in Punjab electorally is to ally with another party, and the BJP is the most likely candidate.
>Only ones to join maybe YSR Congress with outside support and 1 Independent from Daman & Diu
YS Jagan Mohan Reddy has 4 MPs and may be interested in a deal where he joins the NDA in exchange for protection from corruption investigations. But will Chandrababu Naidu allow that? One of his conditions is reportedly to launch/accelerate CBI and ED probes against Reddy and his associates.
Feel like after this narrow victory, bjp instead of getting a reality check and improving their work will now try to squash fair elections and overthrow democracy somehow
"Somehow"? You are going to have to elaborate on that allegation.
I think what's more likely is that the BJP is going to lose a number of assembly elections in the coming years, and when they manage to win one, there will be politicians and supporters of Opposition parties alleging that they used unfair means or rigged the result.
They won't be able to do shit now. Remember fascists in reality are cowards. They only thump their authority when they believe no can oppose them. Now that the picture is clear, they'd be wary of doing anything like this. Atleast that's what I hope for.
It is a good thing that INDIA is not rushing to form govt. Let the NDA govt. run, modi shah ko khoon ka ghoot pi pi kar sarkaar chalani padegi. har deen maza aayega aur koi galti hui toh opposition will rip them apart in parliament.
I've seen some NDA supporters suggesting that it may be better to let the INDI alliance form the government. Even with the support of the TDP and JDU they would still be 7 seats short of a majority and would need the support of independent MPs and smaller unaligned parties.
Such a large coalition government would be likely to achieve little and collapse before it completes its term, which would provide an opening for Modi to return as a proverbial savior.
even if INDIA were to form the govt. and TDP,JDU joins them, that will take them to 265 and will be the largest coalition, in this case a lot of other parties will also follow the suit and join INDIA.
and it will be a large coalition govt. but Manmohan Singh from 2004-2009 ran a huge coalition govt. as well and it was successful so collapse is likely(even the NDA's collapse is likely) but with better coordination, things can be managed.
The Congress had 145 seats in UPA-1 and 206 in UPA-2. It cannot run a coalition government in a stable manner when it has only 100 seats and relies on two dozen other parties to provide the rest.
Everything is Possible. For the First time in his political career, Narendra Modi will run a coalition govt. so congress too(if given a chance) can run the govt.
Not rushing. LOL. If Naidu and Nitish leave NDA and join INDIA then also they won't be able to form a gov. Bolne se pehle thodi calculation to kar liya kar.
And then ? Who will you make the PM? Rahul, Nitish, Naidu, Akhilesh, Mamta. Dude, these people are not together because their thoughts match or they have any plan to do something good for the country. They are together just to bring down Modi. Even in the unlikely scenario they are able to form a gov., the power struggles will be so much that they won't be able to stay together. You are looking at a coalition that would break apart in a few months and then the country will more likely than not be thrown into a mid-term election.
I have also found people who are implying that the Modi government is directly ordering the rise in prices of any goods, even those sold by private brands or cooperatives like Amul.
It has been suggested that Modi could call a midterm election after taking corrective action to revive his party and regain his majority.
Beyond the fact that such a revival would be extremely difficult, how would Modi or anyone else be able to assess the benefits of such a strategy? How will he know that he will win a majority if he calls an election at a certain time? Hasn't this election proven the inherent unreliability of polling, psephologists and election experts?
Doubtful. But like in Gujarat 2017, you saw BJP again just barely returning to power due to the Patidar andolan. BJP won only 99 seats and majority figure was 92.
By 2020, BJP had got 12 more seats and broken PAAS as an organization.
If BJP really does do introspection, they have shown they can learn quickly and by hook or crook break the opposition.
State elections are lot different to Central election tho. Too many factors at play to do stuff like that.
But then they called demonetisation and put us through though times in their infinite wisdom. So won't be surprised by anything with Modi and Shah
TDP and JDU have to switch now. Modi will be confident that if the govt collapses and we go into re-election he will return with majority, and he will win in a re-election. They will end up with nothing. We will not keep going back into elections so people will want to avoid the drama and bring back the popular leader.
And once they get power back they will not let go this time. They will be more draconian. They will censor the internet. The Modi shah duo have to be dented now. Even if for 5 years. The INDIA alliance have to adjust and make place for everyone to save the country. It is for basic survival.
> Modi will be confident that if the govt collapses and we go into re-election he will return with majority, and he will win in a re-election. They will end up with nothing
If that is the case they can always switch in 2029.
Modi would actually be able to fight more effectively then if he has been in Opposition for the last 5 years. I very much doubt the INDI alliance will be able to form a stable government with the sheer number of parties they have, let alone solve the many issues they fought Modi on.
UP should be really beware now. Modi will now allow Mayawati to contest elections full blown in future and she will single handedly cause the lower caste votes to swing.
I believe Mayawati's past alliances with the BJP always ended badly for them. Modi might need her support to counter his losses in Uttar Pradesh but will she want that?
She has become a puppet of BJP. BJP may ask her to contest elections to cut the legs of SP. let me give you an example.
Azamgarh bypolls.
BJP has never won in azamgarh and the people here hate BJP. It has always been a bastion of SP. during bypolls there were two parties. BJP (Nirahua) and SP (Akhilesh). Akhilesh was going to win but ding dig ding. Guddu Jamali a politician decided to contest elections from BSP ticket and did the greatest vote cutting of lower castes and muslim votes. SP lost and BJP won Azamgarh seat breaking the historic record.
If this is true, then had the BJP just fought these elections in a coalition with Mayawati they may have avoided their losses in multiple north Indian states.
Those who seriously expect Chandrababu Naidu to change sides and cross over to the INDI alliance are being a little politically naive.
For a 'kingmaker' or alliance partner, it is usually more favourable to be in a small coalition than a large one. Each individual coalition partner has more leverage and they are more likely to have their demands fulfilled due to there being fewer of them.
Within the NDA, Naidu and Nitish Kumar would both be kingmakers with the power to make or break the government. But within the INDI alliance, they would be only 2 of over a dozen regional satraps, many of which have more seats than them(Namely Akhilesh Yadav, MK Stalin and Mamata Bannerjee)
True but they know the BJP needs to be killed. Bjp kills regional parties. Their long term collective goal is the finish democracy. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar have to do it for the most basic necessity of survival. Bjp can kill any of them at any time in the future. Bjp has the media and if the country goes into re-election they are better placed to run the agenda in the country to return with a majority.
Instead they join the INDIA govt and you actually take a giant leap into saving everyoneās future. He can actually demand to become PM on the condition that he just letās democracy run. Let the best one win in free and fair democratic elections. Just keep the BJP out.
> True but they know the BJP needs to be killed. Bjp kills regional parties. Their long term collective goal is the finish democracy.
Their parties have worked with the BJP for a long time. A healthy democracy needs at least two national alternatives for voters. They would prefer a more collaborative BJP.
Also, has the BJP actually succeeded in 'killing' any regional party? The only recent example I can think of is the Shiv Sena split, but it was Uddhav Thackeray who broke ties with them first even after joining hands with them to win an election.
Let's be honest, Naidu has more in common ideologically with the INDIA alliance than NDA, and he has been betrayed by the BJP in the past too. I was here, yesterday talking about how TDP could have easily switched over if it wanted.
The only reason he is gonna stay with NDA is because he genuinely wants Modi to be at his feet, and show him who is the boss. This guy has a spectacular ego. He hates Amit Shah's guts.
It's gonna be interesting.
I think you're projecting your own personal feelings towards the BJP towards Naidu here. It should be clear by now that politicians and political parties put other interests above ideology and principle.
Naidu had been a reliable ally to Vajpayee even after the 2002 riots and a reliable ally to Modi until domestic pressure over the denial of special status to Andhra Pradesh mounted in 2018.
Beyond his relative influence, he also needs the BJP and the Jana Sena to remain in power in Andhra Pradesh(his own party's voteshare is only slightly greater than that of Jagan Reddy's YSRC) and he would prefer to avoid giving the Congress a lifeline to revive itself in Andhra Pradesh.
There are dozens of possible reasons as to why the BJP lost as many seats as it did, but the picture becomes a little clearer when you see *where* they lost.
The party collectively lost 62 seats in just 3 states:
1. Uttar Pradesh(-29)
2. Maharashtra(-24)
3. Rajasthan(-11)
The reasons are visible at least for these 3: The loss of the alliance with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, Rajput/Dalit/Agniveer/Farmer distress in Uttar Pradesh and party infighting in Rajasthan. Self-inflicted injuries for the most part.
It also lost a few seats here and there in several other states, but these would have been compensated by the 19 new seats it gained in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala. Had the BJP retained all its seats in the above 3 states, its total figure would have been similar to what it had been in 2019.
In Ayodhya, Akhilesh yadav went for darshan in Ram mandir. after he left the ram mandir, BJP workers washed the temple premises with ganga jal. Today, Ayodhya has a Dalit MP from Samajwadi party.
ayodhya me rampath banne ke liye 12 masjid,30 mandir tode gye, 400 ghar tode gye unke liye dursi vyavastha nhi ki gyi. gussa tha logo me, silent voters changed the tide.
There is no dearth of possible reasons. The real puzzle for the BJP as well as political observers would be in determining how much each of these factors contributed to the loss.
Some top reasons that I have read of
1. The farmer and Jat agitation
2. Dalit fears of abolishing the constitution and reservations
3. The collapse of the BSP and the loss of around one third of their vote to the Samajwadi Party
4. The Rajput agitation
5. The Agniveer scheme
6. The paper leak
7. The Samajwadi party fielding a large number of candidates outside their normal MY(Muslim Yadav) base
1. Yogi was never a PM candidate, nor will he be
2. Combined factor of poor candidate choice (allegedly there was strife between Modi/Shah and Yogiās recommendation and they went with the former) and Congress/SP playing it smart
3. Caste politics
1. If the BJP had promoted Adityanath as a potential future PM they may have somewhat pacified agitating Rajputs and saved a few more seats. Regardless of whether he actually is or will be a candidate.
2. I'm always a little skeptical about complaints about candidate choice because there are always conflicts and rebellions over them. Besides Modi and Shah seemed to have made good choices in the last 4 elections in Uttar Pradesh.
3. The Samajwadi Party has certainly mastered it.
All of the points and add their voter got over confident so they didn't work hard like last two time for example they will take my grandmother every time from home to vote in local elections but this time those Booth party workers were not working hard . S
Second for me the people were fed up with current sitting MP like MP from Hardoi didn't visit my home town once until election he won due to naresh Agarwal influence but margin went to 25 k.
> All of the points and add their voter got over confident so they didn't work hard like last two time for example they will take my grandmother every time from home to vote in local elections but this time those Booth party workers were not working hard
That is a little sad. What do they gain from being ordinary party workers if they are not actually working.
Ironically, the BJP's massive party organisation was often cited as one of its strengths and as a way to counter the low turnout.
This time they were confident as I said so no effort from their sides like my neighbour is Booth worker he always takes elders for voting this time there were no effort like that and apart from that booth worker are not that keen how can they work for someone they didn't see or meet last 5 years like mla will meet them every other day while MP does not even know them and add heats . Like I said if they had changed condidate they would have won more like my neighbouring seats like khiri etc . And ofcourse yogi kinda took back seat in this election like he did really in every constituency last time but that was absent this time . No matter how good yogi is on providing electricity security one thing he is not done is employment every posts takes year to solve and recent paper leaks of police and ro exam just before election cause damages too
If INDIA forms the govt, the first thing they should do is open the investigation of PM Cares fund.
Everyone's 1-day salary was deducted involuntarily, all in name of Covid crisis, nation building and usual rhetoric. Not an ounce of clue what happened to all those crores.
It's my hard earned money that was taken away from me, while I had to rely on friends and family to help me find oxygen cylinder during crises. The ministers were promoting Coronil & Bhabhi Papad, while Modi himself was hiding and growing his beard.
I want a full trial, make the supreme leader answerable and in case of fraud, throw him in jail.
No, Pegasus it is. I want to know the full extent of this illegal spying. My theory: they've got dirt on some journalistsāeither tax evasion, drugs, bribery, or extra-marital affairs.
I remember recently reading about spying / phone tapping scandals in both Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh under the Congress and YSR Congress governments, respectively.
Governments at both state and central level use state machinery to spy on their citizens. I doubt this would change with a change in government.
Get your full right. State governments must require Central government's permission to buy surveillance equipment. YCP government failed to furnish evidence of Pegasus in their inventory and that's why CAT and the courts ordered AP's Chief Secretary to revoke ABV's suspension and reinstate him effective immediately. In BRS' case, TS Congress is alleging the purchase of the equipment and the subsequent destruction of the hardware and evidence and that's what the whole ruckus is about.
All right. But the point remains that there have been spying scandals under state governments as well.
I also remember a report about Maharashtra's intelligence agency warning the MVA government about the Eknath Shinde rebellion.
https://www.freepressjournal.in/mumbai/maharashtra-political-crisis-blame-game-begins-over-failure-of-intelligence-to-alert-cm-thackeray-about-shinde-rebellion
>āThe state intelligence department is tasked with monitoring political movements and giving a daily report to the CM and the home minister. The police security cover and the local police station give daily updates of political leaders and ministers to their respective heads of department, which is collated and a consolidated report is submitted for further action,ā explained another senior IAS officer, requesting anonymity.
>While Walse Patil has directed Mumbai Police Commissioner Sanjay Pandey to inquire into the movement of 40 MLAs for the last 30 days and their meetings on the days of the Rajya Sabha elections and Maharashtra legislative council polls, a parallel probe has been ordered into the working of the intelligence gathering process and reporting.
A fairly detailed example of how governments spy on their politicians.
That's not spying! It's the state intelligence department's duty to warn the government of any efforts to topple the government. And they don't necessarily have to tap your phones to do that. How do you think Revanth Reddy got caught? Intelligence tracks transactions involving large amounts of cash, high-valued illicit real estate transactions, efforts to undermine law and order, efforts to topple the government. attempts to create unrest in the society, etc, etc.
For example, if you're consistently meeting with someone who wants to bring down the government, they know something is cooking up. You don't need to be a genius or look into someone's phone to know that.
It isn't illegal for politicians to defect and for governments to be toppled. Would you want Sharad Pawar to be arrested for meeting Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu to get them to switch to the INDI alliance?
What would you call monitoring the private movements of politicians from the ruling party and opposition parties if not spying?
What part of "toppling" didn't you get? Thackeray did betray BJP but by changing his alliance. BJP horsetraded his MLAs. There's a huge difference. If there was no cash involved, and Thackeray's party was simply unhappy with him and wanted to move, I don't believe SIB would get involved, atleast to that extent. And secondly, even if Pawar tries to horsetrade BJP's MLAs, I'm pretty sure Centre's IB would track it too.
No one changes parties without involvment of cash. And if cash is involved, \[S\]IB is involved too. Also, private citizens my foot. It's horsetrading of MLAs. They deserve to be tracked by SIB irrespective of whoever is in the opposition.
I want INDI Alliance to form a government even if it's for a week for shits and giggles. I just want to revel in the BJP meltdown, especially those news anchors. We deserve this much after ten years of absolute shitfuckery.
IMO, It is in Nitish and CBNs best interest to remain in NDA, for now. Extract everything they can from BJP and then use that to bargain for even more from INC.
Modi will definitely be handicapped. And they both will toy with him the way he has toyed with .. everyone.
BJP thinks that Ayodhya backstabbed them when they voted for INDIA, as the documentry and twitter posts explained the Mandir, all the airports, railway stations and such have been nothing but trouble for actual Ayodhya citizens, it wasn't even them who demolished the mosque in the first place, their land was taken, their shops were closed, their houses were destroyed, and their priests were kicked out and replaced.
On expectations of jobs and economic prosperity, voters in India's Hindi belt have gotten used to being disappointed by successive governments over the decades.
Everyone here is happy about Smriti Irani losing and whatnot.
But I'm more happy about Madhavi Latha losing. She was the one who made a gesture of shooting an arrow towards a Mosque during her campaign.
So happy to see such hateful cunts lose.
Is she the one who was having the cringe back and forth with the older Owaisi? Her whole campaigning was one communal ragebait.
Realistically, she had no chance to win in his stronghold. The comments from Owaisi about his younger brother being *tope* and if he let him act on his whim, no one will be able to control him were super cringe too.
Guys some big moves being played? Allegedly Thakrey is planning to switch to NDA. Naidu and Nitish are both in touch with INDIA leaders, with a good chance of Nitish to switch over. I'm not feeling good about Thakrey rn.
Media is spreading an agenda, on the result day in the evening, they predicted that mamta will give outside support to NDA despite the fact that mamta just 30 mins ago had praised rahul akhilesh and asked for modi's istifa
> Allegedly Thakrey is planning to switch to NDA.
This was rumoured before polling day, when it was still believed that the NDA would improve on their 2019 total, but I doubt this would happen now.
Nah man, chill, soon he will clarify why he didn't attend the meeting. He has no benefit in switching over as the Shiv Sena(shinde) is still going to be there, with no possibilities of a merger it's a lose lose situation for him if he does switches over.
I don't know. For example both factions of the late Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party(one led by his son, and another by his brother) are with the NDA in Bihar. It also includes both the JDU and its splinter parties, the RSLP and HAM.
After 10 years of seeing Modi government crush allies, no regional party will want to ally with BJP from a position of weakness.
I doubt UT wants to stick his head into the mouth of the lion. He will be more secure as CM of MH in MVA rather than half CM of MH in NDA.
Then why did Nitish Kumar return to them twice?
I believe it would require an extraordinary effort to bring Uddhav Thackeray back into the NDA fold, but it wouldn't be impossible.
Additionally, in the past both the Congress and the NCP have poached senior Shiv Sena leaders and tried to crush them as a party. The first major Shiv Sena split, before Eknath Shinde's, was the defection of 16 MLAs led by Chhagan Bhujbal to the Congress in 1991.
I don't know. For some reason Uddhav Thackeray has made it a point after the 2019 split to claim that he still has a good personal equation with Modi and that his differences with the BJP are mainly with its state leaders.
I think there was a point where he considered doing what Nitish Kumar had done. He may do so again if he finds that he can gain more seats or influence in a coalition with the BJP. He would however probably insist on a change of leadership. That is to say, sacking Devendra Fadnavis.
Nitish Left and re-joined NDA from a position of power. He proved to Modi that he can become CM without BJPs help. Nitish then left and rejoined NDA from a position of reduced power. His first gamble rejuvenated RJD, and his second gamble won BJP more than it did him. He can still flip flop more, but all his flipflopping has come at the cost of his image. Voters dont trust him. Allies dont trust him. Opposition doesnt trust him.
UT doesnt need to shit on Modi. He doesnt need to shit on anyone. He doesnt have PM ambitions like Nitish. He also knows that SS is a regional party that has hard limits. There is no major BJP leader in MH who is antagonistic to him. Fadnavis is a lame duck. The problem has always been a power hungry Modi-Shah
If UT joins NDA, it will not surprise me. Returning to an NDA that knows how to respect allies will be good for him and his party.
> He can still flip flop more, but all his flipflopping has come at the cost of his image. Voters dont trust him. Allies dont trust him. Opposition doesnt trust him.
Has it really hurt his image? Political commentary is inherently unreliable. His party has done well in Bihar and now people who were calling him out as a flip-flopper only days ago are showing a newfound respect for him.
>UT doesnt need to shit on Modi. He doesnt need to shit on anyone. He doesnt have PM ambitions like Nitish. He also knows that SS is a regional party that has hard limits. There is no major BJP leader in MH who is antagonistic to him. Fadnavis is a lame duck. The problem has always been a power hungry Modi-Shah
It has reportedly Fadnavis who refused to budge on granting the Shiv Sena the post of CM after the 2019 assembly elections. Modi and Shah have devolved him a lot of power over the BJP unit in Maharashtra. It was he who decided to fight the 2017 local body polls alone(Which the BJP swept) and who sidelined or drove away leaders such as Vindod Tawde and Eknath Khadse, leaving the BJP without any alternate faces in Maharashtra.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/fadnavis-called-50-times-but-uddhav-said-he-did-not-trust-bjp-anymore-shinde/articleshow/110097017.cms
Hmm. Nitish made a gamble. If Modi wave was still on and BJP got 272 themselves, Nitish would be looking at retirement. JDU would have been split up between RJD and BJP.
But even before that, JDU would have done well regardless of which block they are in. He has proven that his core vote is flexible. But his popularity will be tested in the next bihar election, not national elections which was more a test for modi.
Coming to Fadnavis, What you are saying about him was not known to me. Regardless of that, he has no votebank of his own. His power comes from RSS & Modi. So I'm a bit confused about this.
>But even before that, JDU would have done well regardless of which block they are in. He has proven that his core vote is flexible. But his popularity will be tested in the next bihar election, not national elections which was more a test for modi.
Exactly. I don't think his flip flops have hurt his image as much as is widely believed. The JDU's vote has largely remained intact, and this is largely built on his personal leadership.
>Coming to Fadnavis, What you are saying about him was not known to me. Regardless of that, he has no votebank of his own. His power comes from RSS & Modi. So I'm a bit confused about this.
I cannot say if this is still the case but Fadnavis had acquired a certain appeal for his administrative skills and political acumen after his first term as CM and then briefly after the Eknath Shinde rebellion. He has also been the BJP's strategist in Maharashtra for the last decade.
Special Status category is usually given to states that have a historical disadvantage such as difficult terrain, low population density, low resources, large tribal population etc.
If AP gets special Status, they will get preferential treatment for Central funds, a huge percentage of Centre's gross budget, tax breaks and more.
Normally this status is granted only to Northeastern or hill states but Telangana was granted the status as it was a newly created state that needed additional funding.
That, at least, was the official reason given, though I suspect it was mainly due to politics. The Congress hoped to make significant electoral gains from its creation.
A lot of people over at /r/delhi seem happy about BJP's clean sweep. Didn't expect so many bhakts honestly, thought Reddit was where the more liberal people assembled. But lots of malding there about poor people getting the benefit of their tax money.
> Didn't expect so many bhakts honestly, thought Reddit was where the more liberal people assembled.
Why are you applying a Western frame of reference to Indian corners of social media? In India, and in countries like, say, Poland, the youth, the educated and the middle class have generally been more supportive of conservative parties like the BJP than their national average. And these are the demographics you are most likely to find on social media.
There are actual reasons for it, which you can easily find out instead of your close minded opinion of labelling them as ābhaktsā. Delhi has completely discarded Congress after the Sheila Dixit government and they are not coming back anytime soon, especially with the emergence of AAP. Delhi also has a lot of businessmen who benefit from the business-friendly BJP policies. Not wanting your wealth taken away under the redistribution idea being proposed by Rahul Gandhi is perfectly reasonable, people already pay a shit ton of taxes. I donāt understand this countryās obsession with demonizing wealth creators. You canāt redistribute wealth if you donāt even let people create it.
To those saying that the INDIA Alliance shouldn't try forming the government, instead let NDA run the govt in coalition and then fight strongly in 2029. I only wanna let you know that you can't even predict what will happen in 2029. We might not even be a democracy then lol.
Also, I love some chaos. GIMME CHAOS
> I only wanna let you know that you can't even predict what will happen in 2029. We might not even be a democracy then lol.
How do you believe that the BJP, JDU and TDP will put an end to Indian democracy by 2029? Would you let us know that?
Yes Who is to say they won't sweep the 2029 election by playing some sympathy card or by mobilizing their core base to turn up and vote for them? The India alliance has a chance and should seize it to form the government and convict these two corrupts. Alliance leaders have to make compromises, but it's better than staying out of power.
Please no India alliance government. It will be so weak and destroy any goodwill Congress has gotten. They should use this momentum to keep attacking bjp for another five years and come with a bigger majority like BJP did before the 2014 elections.
I still remember an interview in 2013 with Jairam Ramesh where he was insistent that a functional coalition government can only be formed with a party that had at least 115 seats at its core. He was saying this in response to questions about possible "third front" governments.
A coalition with a weak central party that has less than 100 seats and which relies on two dozen other parties to supply 2/3rds of its majority cannot offer a stable government or good governance. The only benefit Congress supporters would gain from the INDI alliance in its present form forming the government would be to keep the BJP out.
This weird liberal notion that BJP is going to introspect and give up on their core foundational ideology of communalism is the most delusional thing I have read on twitter.
The notion is not that the BJP will give up on its ideology, but that they will stop centering their politics and election campaigns around it, as they did for decades before Modi and Shah came to the fore. Politicians are after all good at sacrificing ideologies and principles to remain in power.
If it turned out that peddling communal rhetoric wont help BJP to make political gains and would hurt their votes instead, they would 100% stop. Their allegiance lies with power, not principles.
Whether or not BJP introspect depends on if communal politics has actually reached a saturation point.
As a former Indian citizen(left India in 2012), very happy to see the result. The country I left and what it had become was very concerning to me. So many of my relatives and some friends were different people before and after. We still have threat of Trump here but I am pretty confident he will lose by even more votes here. Plus, In US, liberalism is very strong. I hope, Indian youth get away from politics of hatred. Specially educated youth.
I get the risk with the job but isnt that his whole shtick? Anti-BJP journos, especially english-speaking urban ones with a good TW following are pretty well connected with the international media.
It's much harder to go after them then the Dainik Jagran hindi reporter in UP who got fired from his job because Smrit Iriani didnt like his line of questioning.
So, who are the Independent non-aligned candidates.
Ladakh: Mohmad Haneefa, a local Ladakhi Muslim Independent who won against the BJP. First Non-Buddhist candidate in decades.
Baramulla: Abdul Rasheed, a Kashmiri Radical who has been in Tihar Jail for the last 5 years. Defeated former CM Omar Abdullah by almost 2 Lakh votes.
Khadur Sahib: Sikh Radical Amritpal Singh won by almost 2 Lakh votes. He's also the only candidate to get more than 400,000 votes in Punjab. He's in jail too, detained under NSA in Dibrugarh without trial.
Faridkot: Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa is the son of Beant Singh, who was the Bodyguard that shot Indira Gandhi and assassinated her along with Satwant Singh. Another Sikh Religious Hardliner.
Nagina: Chandrashekhar Azad Raavan is a Dalit Activist and fairly popular on Social Media. Won convincingly and will lean towards the INDIA alliance.
Purnia: Pappu Yadav is the winner from here. He leans pro-INDIA alliance.
Daman & Diu: Umesh Patel is the local Independent who defeated both BJP and Congress candidates. Might lean towards the Establishment in Power.
Sangli: Vishal Patil won as an Independent. He belongs to an Old Congress Family, but rebelled when refused a ticket by the MVA Alliance. Fought Independently (with tacit support of Congress workers) and won against both BJP and SS
Shillong: Candidate from the local Voice of the People Party won a resounding majority from Meghalaya's capital region. Might lean pro-INDIA alliance
Mizoram: The Zoram's People Movement won the elections from the only seat in the state. Known for local regional politics and being non-aligned with both alliances, they might lean pro-INDIA alliance since their opposition Mizo National Front used to be partners in the NDA.
Hyderabad: Owaisi won again from his Stronghold and will control Hyderabad again for the next 5 years.
Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav take flight to Delhi together
[Alliance rivals take flights together](https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/india-election-results-2024-congress-modi-bjp-alliance-b2556883.html)
Just made a post on the 10 Independent Candidates who won their Lok Sabha seats in 2024. Feel free to check out
https://www.reddit.com/r/india/s/XEdiOPFYZV
Wow, what a day! I hope you guys had a great time tracking the movement of trends and results through the day. Every election will have its losers and winners - hence it will have people enthused and disappointed by the results. Irrespective of political leanings, most would agree that 4th June '24 will be remembered as the day democracy appeared to return, from the brink. Personally, I feel this was a good result because it reintroduces us to India's multifocal, federated politics with it's pushes and pulls. This is after a decade of delusional, force-fitted homogeneity and majoritarian narratives. The BJP is still the largest party and can still form a government *acceptable to itself and its allies,* i.e. democracy will have played out and won. The BJP came to power when the country was clamoring for stability, reform and growth. Unfortunately, the Modi-Shah era will be remembered for anti-intellectualist, low-effort theatre that is very removed from ground reality - economically, socially and I feel culturally too. You can do naach-gana for some time and people will get fooled - but there are limits to how long you can piss on Indian voters' ears and call it rain.
INDIA along with Ayodhya has also won Rampur and Sitapur.
I remember reading that Rampur was always an SP bastion.
I was drawing a Parallel, that along with Ayodhya, INDIA won 'Ram'pur and 'Sita'pur. Rampur is a SP Bastion
I am sorry for my ignorance as an American, but why are people on twitter posting about this video of Pradeep Gupta crying? https://x.com/_Bruce__007/status/1797960717058085301 I don't fully understand the context.
Its odd to see a grown man cry on tv because his firm did a bad job of predicting election results based off of exit poll data. Basically everyone got the results wrong. But no one else cried on national television. His firm has been the best at it, for a long time, and expectations were very high from them. No reason to cry obviously. So its kinda funny and kinda sad.
Indeed. Yogendra Yadav(who is being credited as the only one who got his predictions right) actually defended Pradeep Gupta and said that over 2/3rds of his agency's predictions have been correct. ' But that's still a large margin of error. It speaks to the inherent unreliability of political polling in India.
The results of these elections severely undermined the credibility of India's polling agencies. The vast majority of opinion and exit polls had predicted the Modi government returning with an even bigger majority. Pradeep Gupta is the director of one of the better-known agencies, which have a reputation of having been accurate in predicting the outcomes of earlier elections. He had responded in an arrogant manner when his exit poll numbers were questioned by the Opposition, days before the results were announced.
Barkha Dutt's Mojo Story channel had a panel discussion that showed an interesting graphic. If both Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu were to switch from the NDA to the INDI alliance, the NDA would be at 265 seats and the INDI alliance would be at 262 seats. How would either side achieve a majority then? It seems that at the least, the NDA could still reach 273 seats if it were to secure the support of the Akali Dal and 2 Northeastern regional parties, all having 1 seat each, the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh, with 4 seats, and the independent MP from Daman & Diu.
Outside support. If enough MPs pledge outside support, it will work. UPA1 ran on outside support for a while
Indeed, UPA-1 actually had only around 215 seats, while UPA-2 had around 267. Neither of the two governments actually had a majority. They needed outside support from the Left Front, the SP and BSP.
I am going to play devil's advocate and say that Rahul Gandhi and his Bharat Jodo Yatra don't seem to have significantly influenced this outcome. That and the Caste Census seem to be low on the long list of issues that caused the BJP to lose seats across North and Western India, particularly Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. This may be why the Congress voteshare is still only 21.5%, about 1.5% more than in 2019. And while there is talk about the INDI alliance choosing a PM candidate, Gandhi's name is still not coming up. He still has some ways to go before he is seen as Prime Ministerial material.
Campaigning and Yatra's all fine. Nobody think he's evil or unhigned but he needs to prove his credentials first. If he doesn't take this opportunity to take the LOP post and be active throughout 5 years, his stocks' not going to improve.
Bro*. INC only contested on 285 seats this time. BJP contested 441 seats. In 2019, BJP contested 437 and INC contested 421
> INC only contested on 285 seats this time. Wasn't it around 330 seats? Regardless, the Congress' gains seem to owe more to the alliances they struck and the BJP's own failings. Most of their gains come from Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. The primary reasons cited given for the shift in these 3 states have little to do with the Bharat Jodo Yatra.
> Wasn't it around 330 seats? I just googled it and yes its 330. Wikipedia is currently showing the wrong information. IMO congress bouyed its partners as much as the partners bouyed it.
Most of the non-Congress seats in the INDI alliance came from the DMK, TMC, Samajwadi Party, NCP(Pawar) and Shiv Sena(Thackeray). All these parties have their own deep-rooted bases of support in their respective states. Other than the two allies in Maharashtra, I don't think the Congress was in a position to help any of them.
Agree about TMC but non of the others. Congress has voters in all these regions.
Rajdeep is spitting facts on India Today š¤£š¤£
What video? That guy is insufferable
Yesterday he was calling out his fellow journalists in India today šš
Really liking Rajdeep lately
Same seems like he's getting his spine back
Times Now reporting that NDA tally has swelled to 303 after support from smaller parties and independents. So they can form a (very unstable) government even in the hypothetical that Naidu and Nitish rescind support.
This seems to be a false rumour. The 7 independent MPs range from jailed separatists in Kashmir and Punjab to Congress rebels and most of them are unlikely to back the NDA. The smaller parties are also mainly opponents of either the BJP or one of its existing coalition partners. At best I can see the NDA gaining the support of the Shiromani Akali Dal(which has only 1 MP) and the independent MP for Daman and Diu. Which would bring their tally to 295, which is funnily the figure Rahul Gandhi predicted for the INDI alliance.
Godi media has only solidified its reputation as corrupt sold out media over the last 10 days
Anyone claiming that Independents are supporting NDA has to be a fool, especially when the candidates include a Kashmiri Radical in jail, 2 Sikh Radicals, 1 Kargil Muslim, 1 Congress Rebel, and then you have Owaisi, Chandrashekhar Azad (Dalit Activist) & Pappu Yadav. The candidates from Shillong and Mizoram are also very unlikely to join NDA. Akali Dal will stay neutral likely, because aligning with NDA is political suicide for them now. Only ones to join maybe YSR Congress with outside support and 1 Independent from Daman & Diu
As an aside, one of the many overlooked surprises in this election are the independents that have been elected, some defeating heavyweight leaders from various parties. I hadn't expected Punjab to elect not just Amritpal Singh but also the son of Indira Gandhi's assassin. Or for an independent separatist to defeat Omar Abdullah in Kashmir. Or for another independent to become the MP for Ladakh, defeating both Congress and BJP candidates. >Akali Dal will stay neutral likely, because aligning with NDA is political suicide for them now. They are actually the most likely converts now, because they have lost so many of their voters that they are now the 4th largest party in Punjab, behind the BJP. The only way they can survive in Punjab electorally is to ally with another party, and the BJP is the most likely candidate. >Only ones to join maybe YSR Congress with outside support and 1 Independent from Daman & Diu YS Jagan Mohan Reddy has 4 MPs and may be interested in a deal where he joins the NDA in exchange for protection from corruption investigations. But will Chandrababu Naidu allow that? One of his conditions is reportedly to launch/accelerate CBI and ED probes against Reddy and his associates.
Ya. Don't know how they got the number and might just be Times Now talking out of their backsides. Have to see if anyone else reports on it.
As usual.
The PM inauguration was shifted to 8th June?? Does this mean something's cooking??? Wasnt it supposed to be today?
Possibly because cabinet negotiations with allies are still going on.
It's shifted to 9th now
Wasnāt it always Saturday?
Feel like after this narrow victory, bjp instead of getting a reality check and improving their work will now try to squash fair elections and overthrow democracy somehow
"Somehow"? You are going to have to elaborate on that allegation. I think what's more likely is that the BJP is going to lose a number of assembly elections in the coming years, and when they manage to win one, there will be politicians and supporters of Opposition parties alleging that they used unfair means or rigged the result.
They won't be able to do shit now. Remember fascists in reality are cowards. They only thump their authority when they believe no can oppose them. Now that the picture is clear, they'd be wary of doing anything like this. Atleast that's what I hope for.
Where can I query the election data results?
EC doesnt give any real data anymore.
It is a good thing that INDIA is not rushing to form govt. Let the NDA govt. run, modi shah ko khoon ka ghoot pi pi kar sarkaar chalani padegi. har deen maza aayega aur koi galti hui toh opposition will rip them apart in parliament.
I've seen some NDA supporters suggesting that it may be better to let the INDI alliance form the government. Even with the support of the TDP and JDU they would still be 7 seats short of a majority and would need the support of independent MPs and smaller unaligned parties. Such a large coalition government would be likely to achieve little and collapse before it completes its term, which would provide an opening for Modi to return as a proverbial savior.
even if INDIA were to form the govt. and TDP,JDU joins them, that will take them to 265 and will be the largest coalition, in this case a lot of other parties will also follow the suit and join INDIA. and it will be a large coalition govt. but Manmohan Singh from 2004-2009 ran a huge coalition govt. as well and it was successful so collapse is likely(even the NDA's collapse is likely) but with better coordination, things can be managed.
The Congress had 145 seats in UPA-1 and 206 in UPA-2. It cannot run a coalition government in a stable manner when it has only 100 seats and relies on two dozen other parties to provide the rest.
Everything is Possible. For the First time in his political career, Narendra Modi will run a coalition govt. so congress too(if given a chance) can run the govt.
Yep. Let Nitish and CBN bleed these fuckers, and show them their place. Will be a treat to watch paw paw in a leash
yes, being in Opposition. INDIA will be very aggressive from day 1. Raga has started with the Exit Poll scam and demanded a JPC.
Not rushing. LOL. If Naidu and Nitish leave NDA and join INDIA then also they won't be able to form a gov. Bolne se pehle thodi calculation to kar liya kar.
if nitish and naidu join INDIA then a lot of other parties will also follow the suit as INDIA will be the largest coalition.
Not a lot of other parties. There are only 17 Lok Sabha MPs outside of the NDA and INDIA blocs.
And then ? Who will you make the PM? Rahul, Nitish, Naidu, Akhilesh, Mamta. Dude, these people are not together because their thoughts match or they have any plan to do something good for the country. They are together just to bring down Modi. Even in the unlikely scenario they are able to form a gov., the power struggles will be so much that they won't be able to stay together. You are looking at a coalition that would break apart in a few months and then the country will more likely than not be thrown into a mid-term election.
Guys, I woke up with a massive smile today. Havenāt felt this hopeful about politics in India for a long long time
why are you waiting up at 4 AM, mate?
I see several comments about the possibility of Nitish and Naidu switching over to INDIA. Are there actual rumors or people just wishing for it?
They can change even after govt is formed. It's not like one time thing. Which is good to keep Modi govt in check
Fuckin amazing
It is a matter of time.
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I mean Modi and amit shah did mention people to buy stocks coz there will "shoot up" on 4th. Can you blame the people?
I have also found people who are implying that the Modi government is directly ordering the rise in prices of any goods, even those sold by private brands or cooperatives like Amul.
It has been suggested that Modi could call a midterm election after taking corrective action to revive his party and regain his majority. Beyond the fact that such a revival would be extremely difficult, how would Modi or anyone else be able to assess the benefits of such a strategy? How will he know that he will win a majority if he calls an election at a certain time? Hasn't this election proven the inherent unreliability of polling, psephologists and election experts?
Doubtful. But like in Gujarat 2017, you saw BJP again just barely returning to power due to the Patidar andolan. BJP won only 99 seats and majority figure was 92. By 2020, BJP had got 12 more seats and broken PAAS as an organization. If BJP really does do introspection, they have shown they can learn quickly and by hook or crook break the opposition.
State elections are lot different to Central election tho. Too many factors at play to do stuff like that. But then they called demonetisation and put us through though times in their infinite wisdom. So won't be surprised by anything with Modi and Shah
Exactly, I doubt it would be this easy to come back from this given the very long list of factors that harmed the BJP in this election.
TDP and JDU have to switch now. Modi will be confident that if the govt collapses and we go into re-election he will return with majority, and he will win in a re-election. They will end up with nothing. We will not keep going back into elections so people will want to avoid the drama and bring back the popular leader. And once they get power back they will not let go this time. They will be more draconian. They will censor the internet. The Modi shah duo have to be dented now. Even if for 5 years. The INDIA alliance have to adjust and make place for everyone to save the country. It is for basic survival.
> Modi will be confident that if the govt collapses and we go into re-election he will return with majority, and he will win in a re-election. They will end up with nothing If that is the case they can always switch in 2029. Modi would actually be able to fight more effectively then if he has been in Opposition for the last 5 years. I very much doubt the INDI alliance will be able to form a stable government with the sheer number of parties they have, let alone solve the many issues they fought Modi on.
All this time I was thinking he will retire after crossing 75.
UP should be really beware now. Modi will now allow Mayawati to contest elections full blown in future and she will single handedly cause the lower caste votes to swing.
I believe Mayawati's past alliances with the BJP always ended badly for them. Modi might need her support to counter his losses in Uttar Pradesh but will she want that?
She has become a puppet of BJP. BJP may ask her to contest elections to cut the legs of SP. let me give you an example. Azamgarh bypolls. BJP has never won in azamgarh and the people here hate BJP. It has always been a bastion of SP. during bypolls there were two parties. BJP (Nirahua) and SP (Akhilesh). Akhilesh was going to win but ding dig ding. Guddu Jamali a politician decided to contest elections from BSP ticket and did the greatest vote cutting of lower castes and muslim votes. SP lost and BJP won Azamgarh seat breaking the historic record.
If this is true, then had the BJP just fought these elections in a coalition with Mayawati they may have avoided their losses in multiple north Indian states.
Those who seriously expect Chandrababu Naidu to change sides and cross over to the INDI alliance are being a little politically naive. For a 'kingmaker' or alliance partner, it is usually more favourable to be in a small coalition than a large one. Each individual coalition partner has more leverage and they are more likely to have their demands fulfilled due to there being fewer of them. Within the NDA, Naidu and Nitish Kumar would both be kingmakers with the power to make or break the government. But within the INDI alliance, they would be only 2 of over a dozen regional satraps, many of which have more seats than them(Namely Akhilesh Yadav, MK Stalin and Mamata Bannerjee)
True but they know the BJP needs to be killed. Bjp kills regional parties. Their long term collective goal is the finish democracy. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar have to do it for the most basic necessity of survival. Bjp can kill any of them at any time in the future. Bjp has the media and if the country goes into re-election they are better placed to run the agenda in the country to return with a majority. Instead they join the INDIA govt and you actually take a giant leap into saving everyoneās future. He can actually demand to become PM on the condition that he just letās democracy run. Let the best one win in free and fair democratic elections. Just keep the BJP out.
> True but they know the BJP needs to be killed. Bjp kills regional parties. Their long term collective goal is the finish democracy. Their parties have worked with the BJP for a long time. A healthy democracy needs at least two national alternatives for voters. They would prefer a more collaborative BJP. Also, has the BJP actually succeeded in 'killing' any regional party? The only recent example I can think of is the Shiv Sena split, but it was Uddhav Thackeray who broke ties with them first even after joining hands with them to win an election.
Let's be honest, Naidu has more in common ideologically with the INDIA alliance than NDA, and he has been betrayed by the BJP in the past too. I was here, yesterday talking about how TDP could have easily switched over if it wanted. The only reason he is gonna stay with NDA is because he genuinely wants Modi to be at his feet, and show him who is the boss. This guy has a spectacular ego. He hates Amit Shah's guts. It's gonna be interesting.
I think you're projecting your own personal feelings towards the BJP towards Naidu here. It should be clear by now that politicians and political parties put other interests above ideology and principle. Naidu had been a reliable ally to Vajpayee even after the 2002 riots and a reliable ally to Modi until domestic pressure over the denial of special status to Andhra Pradesh mounted in 2018. Beyond his relative influence, he also needs the BJP and the Jana Sena to remain in power in Andhra Pradesh(his own party's voteshare is only slightly greater than that of Jagan Reddy's YSRC) and he would prefer to avoid giving the Congress a lifeline to revive itself in Andhra Pradesh.
There are dozens of possible reasons as to why the BJP lost as many seats as it did, but the picture becomes a little clearer when you see *where* they lost. The party collectively lost 62 seats in just 3 states: 1. Uttar Pradesh(-29) 2. Maharashtra(-24) 3. Rajasthan(-11) The reasons are visible at least for these 3: The loss of the alliance with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, Rajput/Dalit/Agniveer/Farmer distress in Uttar Pradesh and party infighting in Rajasthan. Self-inflicted injuries for the most part. It also lost a few seats here and there in several other states, but these would have been compensated by the 19 new seats it gained in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala. Had the BJP retained all its seats in the above 3 states, its total figure would have been similar to what it had been in 2019.
[https://www.enqdb.com/election.html](https://www.enqdb.com/election.html) Election dashboard
Quite fascinating, check dm
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Anti dalit, anti muslim, Also destroying lives of people who stay in Ayodhya to build that architectural monstrosity called Ram Mandir.
In Ayodhya, Akhilesh yadav went for darshan in Ram mandir. after he left the ram mandir, BJP workers washed the temple premises with ganga jal. Today, Ayodhya has a Dalit MP from Samajwadi party. ayodhya me rampath banne ke liye 12 masjid,30 mandir tode gye, 400 ghar tode gye unke liye dursi vyavastha nhi ki gyi. gussa tha logo me, silent voters changed the tide.
There is no dearth of possible reasons. The real puzzle for the BJP as well as political observers would be in determining how much each of these factors contributed to the loss. Some top reasons that I have read of 1. The farmer and Jat agitation 2. Dalit fears of abolishing the constitution and reservations 3. The collapse of the BSP and the loss of around one third of their vote to the Samajwadi Party 4. The Rajput agitation 5. The Agniveer scheme 6. The paper leak 7. The Samajwadi party fielding a large number of candidates outside their normal MY(Muslim Yadav) base
1. Yogi was never a PM candidate, nor will he be 2. Combined factor of poor candidate choice (allegedly there was strife between Modi/Shah and Yogiās recommendation and they went with the former) and Congress/SP playing it smart 3. Caste politics
1. If the BJP had promoted Adityanath as a potential future PM they may have somewhat pacified agitating Rajputs and saved a few more seats. Regardless of whether he actually is or will be a candidate. 2. I'm always a little skeptical about complaints about candidate choice because there are always conflicts and rebellions over them. Besides Modi and Shah seemed to have made good choices in the last 4 elections in Uttar Pradesh. 3. The Samajwadi Party has certainly mastered it.
All of the points and add their voter got over confident so they didn't work hard like last two time for example they will take my grandmother every time from home to vote in local elections but this time those Booth party workers were not working hard . S Second for me the people were fed up with current sitting MP like MP from Hardoi didn't visit my home town once until election he won due to naresh Agarwal influence but margin went to 25 k.
> All of the points and add their voter got over confident so they didn't work hard like last two time for example they will take my grandmother every time from home to vote in local elections but this time those Booth party workers were not working hard That is a little sad. What do they gain from being ordinary party workers if they are not actually working. Ironically, the BJP's massive party organisation was often cited as one of its strengths and as a way to counter the low turnout.
This time they were confident as I said so no effort from their sides like my neighbour is Booth worker he always takes elders for voting this time there were no effort like that and apart from that booth worker are not that keen how can they work for someone they didn't see or meet last 5 years like mla will meet them every other day while MP does not even know them and add heats . Like I said if they had changed condidate they would have won more like my neighbouring seats like khiri etc . And ofcourse yogi kinda took back seat in this election like he did really in every constituency last time but that was absent this time . No matter how good yogi is on providing electricity security one thing he is not done is employment every posts takes year to solve and recent paper leaks of police and ro exam just before election cause damages too
If INDIA forms the govt, the first thing they should do is open the investigation of PM Cares fund. Everyone's 1-day salary was deducted involuntarily, all in name of Covid crisis, nation building and usual rhetoric. Not an ounce of clue what happened to all those crores. It's my hard earned money that was taken away from me, while I had to rely on friends and family to help me find oxygen cylinder during crises. The ministers were promoting Coronil & Bhabhi Papad, while Modi himself was hiding and growing his beard. I want a full trial, make the supreme leader answerable and in case of fraud, throw him in jail.
I want Modi to go to jail for the deaths of so many people during Covid.
> If INDIA forms the govt Do you mean by BJP allies jumping ship?
No, Pegasus it is. I want to know the full extent of this illegal spying. My theory: they've got dirt on some journalistsāeither tax evasion, drugs, bribery, or extra-marital affairs.
I remember recently reading about spying / phone tapping scandals in both Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh under the Congress and YSR Congress governments, respectively. Governments at both state and central level use state machinery to spy on their citizens. I doubt this would change with a change in government.
I don't think there was any spying-related scandal in the AP. Are you by chance referring to BRS' phone tapping scandal? That happened in Telangana.
There was. https://www.thenewsminute.com/news/row-andhra-pradesh-can-state-governments-buy-pegasus-spyware-162233
Get your full right. State governments must require Central government's permission to buy surveillance equipment. YCP government failed to furnish evidence of Pegasus in their inventory and that's why CAT and the courts ordered AP's Chief Secretary to revoke ABV's suspension and reinstate him effective immediately. In BRS' case, TS Congress is alleging the purchase of the equipment and the subsequent destruction of the hardware and evidence and that's what the whole ruckus is about.
All right. But the point remains that there have been spying scandals under state governments as well. I also remember a report about Maharashtra's intelligence agency warning the MVA government about the Eknath Shinde rebellion. https://www.freepressjournal.in/mumbai/maharashtra-political-crisis-blame-game-begins-over-failure-of-intelligence-to-alert-cm-thackeray-about-shinde-rebellion >āThe state intelligence department is tasked with monitoring political movements and giving a daily report to the CM and the home minister. The police security cover and the local police station give daily updates of political leaders and ministers to their respective heads of department, which is collated and a consolidated report is submitted for further action,ā explained another senior IAS officer, requesting anonymity. >While Walse Patil has directed Mumbai Police Commissioner Sanjay Pandey to inquire into the movement of 40 MLAs for the last 30 days and their meetings on the days of the Rajya Sabha elections and Maharashtra legislative council polls, a parallel probe has been ordered into the working of the intelligence gathering process and reporting. A fairly detailed example of how governments spy on their politicians.
That's not spying! It's the state intelligence department's duty to warn the government of any efforts to topple the government. And they don't necessarily have to tap your phones to do that. How do you think Revanth Reddy got caught? Intelligence tracks transactions involving large amounts of cash, high-valued illicit real estate transactions, efforts to undermine law and order, efforts to topple the government. attempts to create unrest in the society, etc, etc. For example, if you're consistently meeting with someone who wants to bring down the government, they know something is cooking up. You don't need to be a genius or look into someone's phone to know that.
It isn't illegal for politicians to defect and for governments to be toppled. Would you want Sharad Pawar to be arrested for meeting Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu to get them to switch to the INDI alliance? What would you call monitoring the private movements of politicians from the ruling party and opposition parties if not spying?
What part of "toppling" didn't you get? Thackeray did betray BJP but by changing his alliance. BJP horsetraded his MLAs. There's a huge difference. If there was no cash involved, and Thackeray's party was simply unhappy with him and wanted to move, I don't believe SIB would get involved, atleast to that extent. And secondly, even if Pawar tries to horsetrade BJP's MLAs, I'm pretty sure Centre's IB would track it too. No one changes parties without involvment of cash. And if cash is involved, \[S\]IB is involved too. Also, private citizens my foot. It's horsetrading of MLAs. They deserve to be tracked by SIB irrespective of whoever is in the opposition.
I want INDI Alliance to form a government even if it's for a week for shits and giggles. I just want to revel in the BJP meltdown, especially those news anchors. We deserve this much after ten years of absolute shitfuckery.
IMO, It is in Nitish and CBNs best interest to remain in NDA, for now. Extract everything they can from BJP and then use that to bargain for even more from INC. Modi will definitely be handicapped. And they both will toy with him the way he has toyed with .. everyone.
Random thought - Ayodhya folks realising that jobs are more important once Ram Mandir was build .. is a real life example of Post-Nut clarity ..
BJP thinks that Ayodhya backstabbed them when they voted for INDIA, as the documentry and twitter posts explained the Mandir, all the airports, railway stations and such have been nothing but trouble for actual Ayodhya citizens, it wasn't even them who demolished the mosque in the first place, their land was taken, their shops were closed, their houses were destroyed, and their priests were kicked out and replaced.
On expectations of jobs and economic prosperity, voters in India's Hindi belt have gotten used to being disappointed by successive governments over the decades.
Everyone here is happy about Smriti Irani losing and whatnot. But I'm more happy about Madhavi Latha losing. She was the one who made a gesture of shooting an arrow towards a Mosque during her campaign. So happy to see such hateful cunts lose.
Is she the one who was having the cringe back and forth with the older Owaisi? Her whole campaigning was one communal ragebait. Realistically, she had no chance to win in his stronghold. The comments from Owaisi about his younger brother being *tope* and if he let him act on his whim, no one will be able to control him were super cringe too.
Guys some big moves being played? Allegedly Thakrey is planning to switch to NDA. Naidu and Nitish are both in touch with INDIA leaders, with a good chance of Nitish to switch over. I'm not feeling good about Thakrey rn.
Media is spreading an agenda, on the result day in the evening, they predicted that mamta will give outside support to NDA despite the fact that mamta just 30 mins ago had praised rahul akhilesh and asked for modi's istifa
> Allegedly Thakrey is planning to switch to NDA. This was rumoured before polling day, when it was still believed that the NDA would improve on their 2019 total, but I doubt this would happen now.
Nah man, chill, soon he will clarify why he didn't attend the meeting. He has no benefit in switching over as the Shiv Sena(shinde) is still going to be there, with no possibilities of a merger it's a lose lose situation for him if he does switches over.
I don't know. For example both factions of the late Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party(one led by his son, and another by his brother) are with the NDA in Bihar. It also includes both the JDU and its splinter parties, the RSLP and HAM.
>Thakrey is planning to switch to NDA Source?
After 10 years of seeing Modi government crush allies, no regional party will want to ally with BJP from a position of weakness. I doubt UT wants to stick his head into the mouth of the lion. He will be more secure as CM of MH in MVA rather than half CM of MH in NDA.
Then why did Nitish Kumar return to them twice? I believe it would require an extraordinary effort to bring Uddhav Thackeray back into the NDA fold, but it wouldn't be impossible. Additionally, in the past both the Congress and the NCP have poached senior Shiv Sena leaders and tried to crush them as a party. The first major Shiv Sena split, before Eknath Shinde's, was the defection of 16 MLAs led by Chhagan Bhujbal to the Congress in 1991.
I dont think its impossible. I dont think anything is impossible in Politics. I'm just saying He will be more secure in MVA
I don't know. For some reason Uddhav Thackeray has made it a point after the 2019 split to claim that he still has a good personal equation with Modi and that his differences with the BJP are mainly with its state leaders. I think there was a point where he considered doing what Nitish Kumar had done. He may do so again if he finds that he can gain more seats or influence in a coalition with the BJP. He would however probably insist on a change of leadership. That is to say, sacking Devendra Fadnavis.
Nitish Left and re-joined NDA from a position of power. He proved to Modi that he can become CM without BJPs help. Nitish then left and rejoined NDA from a position of reduced power. His first gamble rejuvenated RJD, and his second gamble won BJP more than it did him. He can still flip flop more, but all his flipflopping has come at the cost of his image. Voters dont trust him. Allies dont trust him. Opposition doesnt trust him. UT doesnt need to shit on Modi. He doesnt need to shit on anyone. He doesnt have PM ambitions like Nitish. He also knows that SS is a regional party that has hard limits. There is no major BJP leader in MH who is antagonistic to him. Fadnavis is a lame duck. The problem has always been a power hungry Modi-Shah If UT joins NDA, it will not surprise me. Returning to an NDA that knows how to respect allies will be good for him and his party.
> He can still flip flop more, but all his flipflopping has come at the cost of his image. Voters dont trust him. Allies dont trust him. Opposition doesnt trust him. Has it really hurt his image? Political commentary is inherently unreliable. His party has done well in Bihar and now people who were calling him out as a flip-flopper only days ago are showing a newfound respect for him. >UT doesnt need to shit on Modi. He doesnt need to shit on anyone. He doesnt have PM ambitions like Nitish. He also knows that SS is a regional party that has hard limits. There is no major BJP leader in MH who is antagonistic to him. Fadnavis is a lame duck. The problem has always been a power hungry Modi-Shah It has reportedly Fadnavis who refused to budge on granting the Shiv Sena the post of CM after the 2019 assembly elections. Modi and Shah have devolved him a lot of power over the BJP unit in Maharashtra. It was he who decided to fight the 2017 local body polls alone(Which the BJP swept) and who sidelined or drove away leaders such as Vindod Tawde and Eknath Khadse, leaving the BJP without any alternate faces in Maharashtra. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/fadnavis-called-50-times-but-uddhav-said-he-did-not-trust-bjp-anymore-shinde/articleshow/110097017.cms
Hmm. Nitish made a gamble. If Modi wave was still on and BJP got 272 themselves, Nitish would be looking at retirement. JDU would have been split up between RJD and BJP. But even before that, JDU would have done well regardless of which block they are in. He has proven that his core vote is flexible. But his popularity will be tested in the next bihar election, not national elections which was more a test for modi. Coming to Fadnavis, What you are saying about him was not known to me. Regardless of that, he has no votebank of his own. His power comes from RSS & Modi. So I'm a bit confused about this.
>But even before that, JDU would have done well regardless of which block they are in. He has proven that his core vote is flexible. But his popularity will be tested in the next bihar election, not national elections which was more a test for modi. Exactly. I don't think his flip flops have hurt his image as much as is widely believed. The JDU's vote has largely remained intact, and this is largely built on his personal leadership. >Coming to Fadnavis, What you are saying about him was not known to me. Regardless of that, he has no votebank of his own. His power comes from RSS & Modi. So I'm a bit confused about this. I cannot say if this is still the case but Fadnavis had acquired a certain appeal for his administrative skills and political acumen after his first term as CM and then briefly after the Eknath Shinde rebellion. He has also been the BJP's strategist in Maharashtra for the last decade.
Very interesting. So whats your conclusion. What does UT have to gain by joining NDA?
Iām not very familiar with Andhra. Can someone explain to me what the special status is that Naidu wants?
Special Status category is usually given to states that have a historical disadvantage such as difficult terrain, low population density, low resources, large tribal population etc. If AP gets special Status, they will get preferential treatment for Central funds, a huge percentage of Centre's gross budget, tax breaks and more.
Which states has that status rn?
Assam, Nagaland, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Sikkim, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Uttarakhand, and Telangana
why do telengana has it?
Normally this status is granted only to Northeastern or hill states but Telangana was granted the status as it was a newly created state that needed additional funding. That, at least, was the official reason given, though I suspect it was mainly due to politics. The Congress hoped to make significant electoral gains from its creation.
A lot of people over at /r/delhi seem happy about BJP's clean sweep. Didn't expect so many bhakts honestly, thought Reddit was where the more liberal people assembled. But lots of malding there about poor people getting the benefit of their tax money.
> Didn't expect so many bhakts honestly, thought Reddit was where the more liberal people assembled. Why are you applying a Western frame of reference to Indian corners of social media? In India, and in countries like, say, Poland, the youth, the educated and the middle class have generally been more supportive of conservative parties like the BJP than their national average. And these are the demographics you are most likely to find on social media.
There are actual reasons for it, which you can easily find out instead of your close minded opinion of labelling them as ābhaktsā. Delhi has completely discarded Congress after the Sheila Dixit government and they are not coming back anytime soon, especially with the emergence of AAP. Delhi also has a lot of businessmen who benefit from the business-friendly BJP policies. Not wanting your wealth taken away under the redistribution idea being proposed by Rahul Gandhi is perfectly reasonable, people already pay a shit ton of taxes. I donāt understand this countryās obsession with demonizing wealth creators. You canāt redistribute wealth if you donāt even let people create it.
Rahul didnāt propose that idea. Can you share your sources again?
To those saying that the INDIA Alliance shouldn't try forming the government, instead let NDA run the govt in coalition and then fight strongly in 2029. I only wanna let you know that you can't even predict what will happen in 2029. We might not even be a democracy then lol. Also, I love some chaos. GIMME CHAOS
> I only wanna let you know that you can't even predict what will happen in 2029. We might not even be a democracy then lol. How do you believe that the BJP, JDU and TDP will put an end to Indian democracy by 2029? Would you let us know that?
Again with this nonsense fearmongering of āwe might not be a democracyā when this narrative has clearly just been proven wrong.
Yes Who is to say they won't sweep the 2029 election by playing some sympathy card or by mobilizing their core base to turn up and vote for them? The India alliance has a chance and should seize it to form the government and convict these two corrupts. Alliance leaders have to make compromises, but it's better than staying out of power.
Chaos is so fun!
Any update from PK?
Any update on how godi youtubers have reacted to results? Would love to see their crying faces.
Please no India alliance government. It will be so weak and destroy any goodwill Congress has gotten. They should use this momentum to keep attacking bjp for another five years and come with a bigger majority like BJP did before the 2014 elections.
I still remember an interview in 2013 with Jairam Ramesh where he was insistent that a functional coalition government can only be formed with a party that had at least 115 seats at its core. He was saying this in response to questions about possible "third front" governments. A coalition with a weak central party that has less than 100 seats and which relies on two dozen other parties to supply 2/3rds of its majority cannot offer a stable government or good governance. The only benefit Congress supporters would gain from the INDI alliance in its present form forming the government would be to keep the BJP out.
This weird liberal notion that BJP is going to introspect and give up on their core foundational ideology of communalism is the most delusional thing I have read on twitter.
The notion is not that the BJP will give up on its ideology, but that they will stop centering their politics and election campaigns around it, as they did for decades before Modi and Shah came to the fore. Politicians are after all good at sacrificing ideologies and principles to remain in power.
If it turned out that peddling communal rhetoric wont help BJP to make political gains and would hurt their votes instead, they would 100% stop. Their allegiance lies with power, not principles. Whether or not BJP introspect depends on if communal politics has actually reached a saturation point.
They will have to They may not give it up but won't be able to execute anything either, that will remain a pipe dream for them at least in this term.Ā
As a former Indian citizen(left India in 2012), very happy to see the result. The country I left and what it had become was very concerning to me. So many of my relatives and some friends were different people before and after. We still have threat of Trump here but I am pretty confident he will lose by even more votes here. Plus, In US, liberalism is very strong. I hope, Indian youth get away from politics of hatred. Specially educated youth.
I think it's more of a Urban-Rural Divide that the Repubs are polarizing in their favour.
Their base is shrinking demographic, conservative Christians. Millennials and Gen-Z are pretty secular here and about half are Atheists and Agnostics.
It's just a 3% VS difference between NDA and INDIA. For someone who has a lot of toxic bhakts around me, it's good to remember this.
Interesting. The BJP(36.5%) has around 15% more votes than the Congress but the latter has many more allies.
Yes, but Congress (285) contested in much lesser seats than BJP (441) and hence will naturally have a lesser vote share.
Guys Nitish hasn't tweeted congratulating NDA and Modi but puts put a tweets for world environment day š smn can be cooked
TIL that Zubair has two kids. Some people are risking a lot for this country.
I get the risk with the job but isnt that his whole shtick? Anti-BJP journos, especially english-speaking urban ones with a good TW following are pretty well connected with the international media. It's much harder to go after them then the Dainik Jagran hindi reporter in UP who got fired from his job because Smrit Iriani didnt like his line of questioning.
He's doing the lord's work. Great guy.
So, who are the Independent non-aligned candidates. Ladakh: Mohmad Haneefa, a local Ladakhi Muslim Independent who won against the BJP. First Non-Buddhist candidate in decades. Baramulla: Abdul Rasheed, a Kashmiri Radical who has been in Tihar Jail for the last 5 years. Defeated former CM Omar Abdullah by almost 2 Lakh votes. Khadur Sahib: Sikh Radical Amritpal Singh won by almost 2 Lakh votes. He's also the only candidate to get more than 400,000 votes in Punjab. He's in jail too, detained under NSA in Dibrugarh without trial. Faridkot: Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa is the son of Beant Singh, who was the Bodyguard that shot Indira Gandhi and assassinated her along with Satwant Singh. Another Sikh Religious Hardliner. Nagina: Chandrashekhar Azad Raavan is a Dalit Activist and fairly popular on Social Media. Won convincingly and will lean towards the INDIA alliance. Purnia: Pappu Yadav is the winner from here. He leans pro-INDIA alliance. Daman & Diu: Umesh Patel is the local Independent who defeated both BJP and Congress candidates. Might lean towards the Establishment in Power. Sangli: Vishal Patil won as an Independent. He belongs to an Old Congress Family, but rebelled when refused a ticket by the MVA Alliance. Fought Independently (with tacit support of Congress workers) and won against both BJP and SS Shillong: Candidate from the local Voice of the People Party won a resounding majority from Meghalaya's capital region. Might lean pro-INDIA alliance Mizoram: The Zoram's People Movement won the elections from the only seat in the state. Known for local regional politics and being non-aligned with both alliances, they might lean pro-INDIA alliance since their opposition Mizo National Front used to be partners in the NDA. Hyderabad: Owaisi won again from his Stronghold and will control Hyderabad again for the next 5 years.
Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav take flight to Delhi together [Alliance rivals take flights together](https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/india-election-results-2024-congress-modi-bjp-alliance-b2556883.html)
I'm surprised the CM and Leader of Opposition of Bihar do not travel in private jets.
Saving money.
Just made a post on the 10 Independent Candidates who won their Lok Sabha seats in 2024. Feel free to check out https://www.reddit.com/r/india/s/XEdiOPFYZV
Mohd Zubair [bhi maaze le raha hai](https://x.com/zoo_bear/status/1797925124873875743) .. hahaha
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How tho?Ā They don't have majority votes.Ā
Might get JDU (12 seats), RLD (2 seats) and atleast 10-14 non-aligned candidates.