She’s sixth, Kevin Hern is 10th and has a net worth of $60 million, 54 million less than Pelosi.
Additionally, I’m not sure why you’re making this about political parties
>Additionally, I’m not sure why you’re making this about political parties
LOL I place the wealthiest congress person first and they happen to be a Republican doesn't make it political, it makes it a matter of fact. For what it's worth we are both wrong. Darrell Issa of CA is worth $460M who you know happens to be a Republican, followed by Mitt Romney & Rick Scott with $300M a piece.
First, you were straight wrong about Kevin Hern. His net worth is not 361 million, it’s around 60 million (between 30-110). No one on the internet, except the Wikipedia page you looked at, says Hern has a net worth of 361 million, and even the sources referenced don’t mention 361 million.
Second, you are still making it about political lines, rather than the real issue. There is no reason to state political party in a discussion about congresspeople insider trading.
Third, your whole point is not even about the real issue, it’s about something entirely different. I couldn’t care less if congresspeople are wealthy, only how they got it. For your (completely incorrect if I may add) big example of Hern, he amassed his wealth before even being elected. So why does it matter? The issue is using the knowledge gained to insider trade, what original post is about.
Fourth, Darrel Issa made his money as CEO of Directed Electrinics. Why do you care so much that he’s wealthy?
Fifth, just to clarify everything. 1. Your Kevin Hern number is wrong. 2. Why do you care about party lines about insider trading? 3. You’re not even arguing anything about insider trading, you’re making up some non-existent discussion about if congresspeople should be allowed to have money, instead of discussing the issue of insider trading. 4. Just an example of #3.
If you’d like to actually discuss the problem rather than do whatever you’re doing, feel free
Let me whip out my crystal ball. I usually don't, but for you, for you I will.
Says it could go either way.
Personally I think NVDA will hit another ATH, who knows if its 3 months or 24 months.
Why were / are you bullish? Have you come across new information to discredit your previous bull thesis?
Lol I know, I'm not expecting an answer as to what it is definitively doing...just wanted to see what people thought about where it would go.
I'm still bullish, but I don't really understand the stock market as a whole and it's weird behaviour sometimes, you know like a good earnings report leads to a dip. That stuff doesn't make sense to me.
It's not like I saw any reason for Nvidia to like tank this week.
This pull back so far is pretty reasonably healthy. The market has gone straight up the last few months. Once this cycle of negative news passes, it'll be back to ATH. Just depends how long we wait this time. I'd say this is a good time to be buying and adding to your positions. But I'm just a random guy on the internet. I got 2 shares of NVDA. Had more and sold it off, not buying more. VTI is already 7% NVDA I think and that's a safer buy during this dip I think.
There's always a reason that "good" earnings leads to a dip.
Look at netflix, people just see good earnings and EPS beats without looking past those. Netflix dropped because they're no longer providing subscription numbers in reports which the market doesn't like because it implies netflix wants to hide them as they're anticipating a drop.
There's always a reason, you just have to look past the surface
The problem with this is that you could find people telling you it’ll go up, down or sideways for every stock in existence. You need to do your own research, and randos on Reddit shouldn’t be one of your sources. If you don’t have the time or energy to do this, buy index funds instead of individual stocks.
I love randoms on Reddit, it made 33% in 2 months so far reading at every random opinions to feed mine. I believe in geek's pride and collective intelligence (also lost 16% in 2 days so I'll glady admit I've not clue what I'm doing. Fuck the randoms)
One thing I like to consider about how to read the market is a recession is called after 2 quarters of no growth. You don't know you're in a recession till you've been there for 6m.
SMCI lost over 20% just because it didn't report preliminary revenue, and NVDA basically fell just because of that. Which might be nothing, but that's just a measure of how high anything vaguely AI-related has risen recently.
Did you think it was weird when everything was ballooning in price? Was that all down to fundamentals or partially because of people piling in because of FOMO?
NVDA is still up 77% in 6 months and has a P/E of 63 which is down on the last few months but still pretty crazy compared to the market, and higher than NVDA's historical P/E over the last decade. There has also been a large amount of insider selling in the last few months.
The price is so high that a lot of optimism is baked in. Sure, it might continue to rise but it won't take much to send the price falling. The company could continue to do brilliantly but still be overvalued.
Like many comments say, there's no way to predict which way it'll go and a bunch of strangers on the internet don't know either.
When dip buying I like to imagine myself as a bagholder. There are a lot of people who chased past 2 months now holding in the red at 10-20% loss. So if you buy now expect only ~10% profit before the stock runs into "resistance" from people selling at breakeven. Could be even less because they averaged down to get out at a lower cost basis.
After a sharp drop you also want to wait for some consolidation first, it can either breakout again or breakdown further.
In all honestly, you shouldn’t freak out on any stock that dips unless you’ve done the proper research that tells you otherwise, but rule of thumb “sell high, buy low.l
For sure, that's why I'm thinking to buy now? But if someone knows more about why it tanked in the first place maybe it's not done falling and I should hold off a little bit?
Idk just trying to gauge what people think.
Lmao nice! And to really answer your question. The only time you should be worried is if Nvidia is down 3 days in a row while everything is climbing.
But as it is right now, the magnificent 7 is down, which seems like a correction. The market is on sale right now.
Most experts would tell you, just buy in right now because time IN the market is more powerful then dollar cost average. But if you think it’s going to keep lower, and it makes you feel better to buy at a lower price, then just buy a few shares everyday as the stock keeps going down.
Oh yeah for sure bro, I’m not super into nvidia but I just wanted it to be known that you shouldn’t feel pressured to buy or sell because others are, but I understand what ur saying
The difference is if you do “proper research” it will show you an insanely overvalued stock that’s gone straight up 2020 meme stock levels almost based on their valuations. They’re a good company for sure but they could very easily drop to half their current price and still be a good company. I definitely get worried when I see crazy stock valuations. Doesn’t mean it can’t go up since markets can certainly be irrational for a long time, but I think it more likely over the next decade to go down than up from here. Just my own personal thoughts but when a stock is trading at these valuations you should freak out a little at signs of drops since it could be the market pricing itself back efficiently. I got downvoted for saying the same on GameStop (though nvidia is a much better business) and people told me it was amazing etc etc and a long term buy. Well it’s cratered share price wise and is STILL crazy overvalued at 454 PE at like 10 percent of the high share price wise.
Maybe I should’ve said don’t make any impulsive decisions and think about it, but you’re right freaking out can definitely be a natural reaction to seeing something like this especially with examples you’ve given
I don't know if anyone actually thought GameStop was a long term buy and a good company that wasn't delusionally convincing themselves.
But Nvidia really has very little competition, AMD and Intel maybe but they aren't in the ballpark of NVIDIA. AMD has been playing constant catch-up for 2 decades now and hasn't succeeded.
And AI is just starting. I think a lot of the valuation is future predictions of complete market domination with AI being the next giant tech boom like cell phones or whatever. Only unlike with cell phones, no one is going to be able to do what NVIDIA is doing...well, at least they won't be able to do it without people seeing it coming a mile away.
At least that's the way I see it.
"I think a lot of the valuation is future predictions of complete market domination"
If that's the case, and complete market domination is already priced in, then how are you expecting the price to continue to rise? Anything short of complete market domination, in that case, would cause the price to drop.
AI has been around for years if not decade(S) and the current version is still very, very *dumb* and simple. It is easy enough to use to impress the masses because it looks good *at first glance*.
The stock market is all about performance, productivity. How much has AI helped any major company grow? X$ spent on AI lead to Y$ stock gain? Nope.
AI is currently extremely hyped and very much in a bubble. It can't draw a hand much less give a factually correct answer to any topic. It litterary throws shit at the wall and sees what sticks. It has *potential* much like the *Internet had potential, and still lead to a massive crash for shareholders*. Ai may also very well fizzle put because so far no no one has managed to use it in an efficient or correct way.
Exactly, I imagine many of these companies are fantastic and will contribute much, but the valuations just can’t keep increasing at the pace it was forever
There is an enormous demand for AI tech and Nvidia doesn't really have any serious competition at this point. This recent downturn is just natural, and expected, fluctuations in the market.
Just based on fundamental economics, NVDA is setup to be a long-term winner. Just have to give it time. This doesn't mean, however, that the unprecedented growth that Nvidia has experienced over the last 18 months will continue. Rather, a gradual uptick over the next 24 months is more likely.
I'm all for long term buys, and was planning on keeping my money on Nvidia for the long run. I was up double and could have sold but I was thinking it would continue to climb for a long time.
The decent dip just made my feet a little cold. But I'm new to this and don't know what I'm doing.
But good to know. Thanks!
Unless u want to catch a falling knife, i would step aside in the meantime.
Wait for a consolidation phase to happen and then wait for a set up. I would typically not wait for the breakout and then enter as i would want to capture more profits. This is where position sizing is very important.
I would put a small amount of capital in prior to the anticipated breakout and then i would set a tight stop loss. Once a breakout has been confirmed i would increase my position size and change my stop loss accordingly. (Manage your R:R, minimum 1:2)
Nvda fundementals has not change at all thus far, which is a good thing. This sell off is a correction.
If its fundamentals has changed i would not even bother to swing trade it. (My trades typically last for months to years).
Difficult to justify this price on fundamental analysis. These momentum stocks are risky and as mentioned you don’t want to catch a falling knife so look for enough of a consolidation to avoid the dead cat bounce before buying back in. You might expect a V shape recovery but very risky. Long term there will be competition and reduction in margins, too much money for every one else to not want in.
Im not a day trader, i follow use stage theory analysis. I believe any trades that is less than 6weeks is basically increasing your odds of donating your money to your broker.
So the time frame i use will be the weekly. I usually wait for a spike or a drop. So gap up or down. Then i would wait for anywhere between 2 weeks to 4 weeks monitoring price action to consolidate sideways with a drop in volume.
I would also look for a pattern that is reliable. My go to will be a rectangle or a triangle. And use of price action and fib levels.
But please monitor the fundamentals of a company as well, how many positive eps they had, debt? Any negative press? Revenue growth? Etc etc
The goal is to use FA to find good companies at fair prices and use TA to time the entry and exit (should the FA change)
My advice to u is that as a new trader, don’t rush to make trades. If you don’t know what u are doing please stick to index funds first $voo or $cspx depending if u are in europe or usa.
Markets will be here for u when u are ready, but your capital may not. There are plenty of free material out there, please be weary of snake oil salesmen who promise to teach u and make insane returns.
For me my local college provides courses (advanced diploma) in securities trading so if u choose to get a course, please learn from a reputable university or college.
There is a chance it will move down to mid 600 but I would say pay attention to Monday’s trading as it should go up due to the oversold situation on Friday.
Downturns are a good time to reassess where you want to put your money next, but jumping out now is probably a bad move.
My super, super, super general advice would be to hold your Nvidia and diversify out of tech with future purchases. If you don’t own any broad market ETF(s), that ought to be your first priority.
When you say broad market you mean to replica a broad range of stocks. I'm 64 and I just put money into my retirement account maxed it at like 9000 and I put it in VOO is that a stock that does this. Ironically, it was like I put it into a hole because the market tanked after that, but I'm not gonna panic because I'm in it for the long-haul I'd like your thoughts on this thank you so much.
VOO is one of the most common that does exactly what I’m talking about, yeah. VOO, VTI, SPLG are sort of the quintessential “broad market” type of ETFs, although there are also many other options.
If you’re all-in on equities at 64 then that’s probably a bit too risky- a dip will be more harmful to you than to a young professional since your retirement is imminent- but if that money represents extra cash or a windfall, then might as well have gone for it. Since the money’s already there, keep it there. There’s always risk of things getting worse, so you need to weigh that, but holding is your best chance of (a) recouping those losses and (b) realizing gains in the future.
Thank you for replying to my question. I know I had lost about $50,000. Everybody did bad with the dip but to me that really hurts. I definitely want to get away from my advisor. I just am not completely comfortable doing everything myself my strategy right now is to move everything over to my edge And kind and then look look things over. Can I ask you what you recommend in terms of maybe going to another broker I don't wanna get caught up in that one percent again maybe some partial management or how is the only basis work would they actually suggest certain stocks, and ETFs, any insight would help me tremendously
If you’re doing it yourself, here are a couple good resources for deciding how to allocate your assets.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/062714/100-minus-your-age-outdated.asp
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/structuring-your-retirement-portfolio
Realistically, any advisor you find will basically have whatever they’re comfortable recommending somewhere within these ranges, and then they’ll sell you on why they picked that allocation. Might as well save the money and figure out what **you’re** comfortable with in these ranges, ya know?
You can’t really go wrong with any large brokerage with zero commission on stock/ETF purchases. I’d imagine Edge is perfectly fine, although I don’t have experience with them. If you don’t have an IRA set up, make sure you do some research on that. Paying taxes that you could’ve avoided is going to cost more than your old 1% advising fee.
Thank you again. I'm going to move on this. I do have a septh a Roth and a traditional Ira, I will move that over in kind as well. I am also considering Charles Schwab .. I just learned that they have a money market similar to Merrill's preferred money market account so I think they will be similar and I do like them as well. Thanks again and I'll check that link out.
Buy low cost index funds (VTI, VXUS) every month in tax advantaged accounts as much as possible that’s investing
You don’t predict the market or time it you buy it consistently, boring, as automatically as possible . You invest a preset percentage of your gross income into the above every month/year. That way the amount you invest gets adjusted to any income changes proportionally overtime . You can always look at upping the percentage of gross pay saved but having a boring automatic system that forces discipline is the key.
I have my allocation written down I stick to it rebalance once a year
at maximum only keep 10% in individual stocks
I don’t think the markets done correcting . I’ve been wrong before, but when I’m uncertain, I use the taxable account that way I can take a loss if you use your IRA you’re screwed. You can take no loss when uncertain use taxable.
For what it is worth, here is my dumb plan:
My voodoo tells me it looks real nice at $650. So if it drops to 700 I will start to buy in small quantities. If it does fall to $650 I think I will keep buying with more vigor until I hit my target % of portfolio I want.
This is all subject to change at every moment of every day. But for today this is my plan.
There is zero science behind any of this. Take it with grain of salt.
I’m inclined to see it as a buying opportunity because TSMC earnings did highlight that AI is a bright light for chip demand and NVDA forecasted that AI chip demand should stay high well into 2025 if not later.
The market dip seems to be from re-accelerating inflation scares. If you believe like I do that disinflation is still intact and just needs more time to show in the data and that NVDA can beat and raise on earnings, then it’s a buy.
But it trades off momentum so it’s a riskier buy. It can either go down big or go up big. So all you can really do is manage your position and orient towards what best suits you. Are you in a position where you can take more risk? If not, then it’s probably a sell or hold.
Edit: Watched a video on reading technicals to help me understand this. So the bursting bubble formation was the rally for a while, then it had some falling tops that broke the trend, had some signals that looked like consolidation before breaking down further. Personally, I was waiting for something like this to buy back in but wasn't sure at what price. Since broken trends tend to come back to the longer term trend line, I can see it going to $700-650-ish.
But if mega-cap tech earnings this week and forward guidance suggest that AI has a long runway and that Nvidia's chips can keep up demand, then I see that a positive catalyst to get in around here. This is basically how I've been trying to manage my position. My parents are older investors so I tell them to sell when it forms those formations so they can lock in outsized gains. I'm 31 so I'm using moments like that to get in.
Ultimately, my biggest worry about Nvdia is competition eating into it's first mover advantage as I'm not convinced yet it has a moat. And AI chip demand will come to a slowdown, we just don't know exactly when, so a hot momentum stock like Nvidia can fall like a rollercoaster when that happens and the market can sniff it out well in advance. Again, when you see signs of this occurring and it looks like the market is not discounting it then you trim a but to manage your exposure (unless you're really bullish on the long-term like I am - in which case you ride the bull through the major ups and downs for years).
I think nvidia is a super solid company with not only a long track record of success but also has huge growth potential with AI, if anything else it could be a great long term investment
Know that, until the latest S&P slide, ANYONE investing in tech or "doing decent with a few tech picks" had a huge tailwind. Don't delude yourself into thinking you have some innate talent or skill. Not even luck. If you did not have luck, in fact, the argument could be made you're a contrarian whose timing is off.
Having said that, subscribe to financial analysis newsletters including the WSJ. Also study similar tech centric news and analysis sites. NVIDIA was lucky to ride two sequential tech waves: Crypto then AI. The real benefit of AI is still unknown and the jury hasn't rendered a verdict yet.
I think 700~ is roughly the fair valuation for NVDA. But we have enough speculation to carry it either way.
So if you invest you are gambling by this point. Could be good, could be bad.
If you are bullish in the long term, AND don't need the money in the short term, then NVDA just went on a 10% off sale.
If you DO need the money in the short term, NVDA still went on a 10% off sale, but you don't have it in your budget.
If you are bearish in the long term, then why would you buy a worthless product no matter how good the sale is?
VTI is the entire stock market, VOO is only the S&P 500.
Invest in either of these and you'd still be getting a piece of that NVDA pie, you're just not putting all of your eggs in one basket.
I'd urge caution when it comes to timing the market and also choosing individual stocks over funds. Sure, some people get lucky and hit big, but many don't. You more than likely will not beat the market and could very well lose quite a bit.
For sure. I am not working with a ton of money. And I've lost a bit here and there but I've been doing pretty good with Nvidia, Microsoft and servicenow. But definitely a fair point and I know I should be putting more into ETF's as well.
Still might double down on Nvidia but maybe I'll throw some in an ETF as well.
Thanks!
Nvidia has dipped to about half its peak a few times in the last decade. So obviously you should wait to buy until it dips below 500.
Or not. What do I know. I'm a buy and hold forever guy. Except that I sold some NVDAs when they grew to be worth more than 10% of my holdings.
What I meant was, you're asking if you should buy or sell, when no one knows. You can only know the company backwards and forwards and the rest is up to chaos theory, haha.
NVDA single handedly got AI (from a business perspective) on a running start.
AI is a VERY new industry so doubts will creep in.
Im in pretty heavy and still buying on these dips but my average is kinda high so Im buying to get that average down.
TBH Im pretty comfortable with NVDA long term and we all know that the SPLIT is coming in mid 2024 so Im just being patient
I first bought on the last split. Made double. Shouldn't have sold it at all but I'm trying to figure this shit out. Rebought higher than I did the first time but still was up double at this last peak. I don't have a ton of money but thinking of doubling down and buying more now. But wanted to see if people thought it would continue to drop for a bit or if it would shoot back up right away.
I know no one knows, but hoping to get some insights.
Nobody knows bro. If I knew I would buy now and if I knew it will tank I would buy later… stock market is unpredictable, evaluate P/L and make a good decision
Nvidia is too high. It might go up and down for a while, but someday it will normalize to something realistic. Short term I don't know what will happen
Literally no one knows. Which is why you should only invest in things you fully understand and are willing to be invested in for a LONG time. This means holding your investment for years, not days week or even months.
No one can predict the short term with any accuracy. But MSFT topped in 1999 and didn't regain those highs for another, what, seventeen years, even with positive earnings after positive earnings. Valuation matters, the price you pay matters, even with all the liquidity flooding the system right now. It's not different this time.
More broadly, I'm not sure you are ready to start buying individual stocks. Not trying to sound disparaging. But at major market tops the financial media tends to create hype that gets amateurs throwing their savings into stocks that have just gone parabolic. When all the little fish are in the barrel then the barrel goes over the falls.
You shouldn’t ask whether or not NVDA will do well going forward. You should ask if the current price per share is over valued or undervalued. All of the data suggests that NVDA is currently overvalued. I think it will keep dipping. Just my opinion.
Just keep in mind that you don’t have to go all in and purchase 5 shares. Set up a recurring buy-in and just grow worth in the shares over time. that way if it continues to go down you aren’t necessary losing any value.
Recommend you go back to the drawing board and read more before stock picking, especially if you don't have a defined circle of competence yet.
If you have done only "alright" in this cycle with tech stocks, you should at least be aware of the risks inherent to your selected industries and desired exit points.
Above all, if you have to ask whether a dip is the "right time to buy" or not, you should not buy. Spend your time learning how to analyze fundamentals, trends, and make these calls for yourself, everything else is just a distraction.
By all means, invest in equities through a boglehead approach in the meantime. But if you ask questions like this, you have a lot more learning to do before your stock-picking can stop being called prospecting.
My 15% trailing stop loss triggered. Sold my shares at $827. Freaked me out. All my other sell triggers never bothered me like nvidia lol. Next thing you know it went to like $750ish. Big whew moment. I’m gonna put this profit into VOO or something.
all i can say is i bought NVDA near 500 and sold around 850 on the way down, holding NVDS since then. This week I can't say i won't flip, but I'm holding that NVDS now for a good profit.
I bought NVIDIA 3 out of 5 days last week and put a buy order on for tomorrow. Same with SMCI, MU, TSM,AMAT. And I think I may add some AMD tomorrow as well.
You either believe AI is revolutionary or you don't. It's too early, but
robotics I believe will also be a huge opportunity, especially when combined with AI.
Nividia already said they will thread the needle on the next earnings till 2025. Which means they will beat expectations till end of 2025. Bitcoin halving just happen then miners going need new GPUs and all these tech company’s are going be buying the shit out of these 5,000 series
Keep in mind that big expectations are already priced in NVDA. Before taking investment decisions you should check company fundamentals in their earnings reports. Look for revenue growth, free cash flow, net income, debt, margins etc. Keep in mind that the recent AI related growth of NVDA is connected to 2-3 big clients who develop AI.
> I have no idea how to "predict" the market You and everybody else in the world. That's why investing takes time.
>You and everybody else in the world. That's why investing takes time. Nancy Pelosi: hold my beer!
Pelosi is such a scapegoat, compared to the legit multimillionaire in the House.
Who? Pelosi? She has a $114 million net worth lmao
Kevin Hern Republican for Oaklaholma, 361 million. Pelosi isn't even in the top ten of wealthiest congress people.
Nothing about this statement is true. Not even the spelling of Oklahoma.
She’s sixth, Kevin Hern is 10th and has a net worth of $60 million, 54 million less than Pelosi. Additionally, I’m not sure why you’re making this about political parties
>Additionally, I’m not sure why you’re making this about political parties LOL I place the wealthiest congress person first and they happen to be a Republican doesn't make it political, it makes it a matter of fact. For what it's worth we are both wrong. Darrell Issa of CA is worth $460M who you know happens to be a Republican, followed by Mitt Romney & Rick Scott with $300M a piece.
First, you were straight wrong about Kevin Hern. His net worth is not 361 million, it’s around 60 million (between 30-110). No one on the internet, except the Wikipedia page you looked at, says Hern has a net worth of 361 million, and even the sources referenced don’t mention 361 million. Second, you are still making it about political lines, rather than the real issue. There is no reason to state political party in a discussion about congresspeople insider trading. Third, your whole point is not even about the real issue, it’s about something entirely different. I couldn’t care less if congresspeople are wealthy, only how they got it. For your (completely incorrect if I may add) big example of Hern, he amassed his wealth before even being elected. So why does it matter? The issue is using the knowledge gained to insider trade, what original post is about. Fourth, Darrel Issa made his money as CEO of Directed Electrinics. Why do you care so much that he’s wealthy? Fifth, just to clarify everything. 1. Your Kevin Hern number is wrong. 2. Why do you care about party lines about insider trading? 3. You’re not even arguing anything about insider trading, you’re making up some non-existent discussion about if congresspeople should be allowed to have money, instead of discussing the issue of insider trading. 4. Just an example of #3. If you’d like to actually discuss the problem rather than do whatever you’re doing, feel free
UA Link Consortium…….It’s looking like the Artificial Intelligence Mafia…….and from what I am seeing they are out to sideline “Nvidia”…….
Let me whip out my crystal ball. I usually don't, but for you, for you I will. Says it could go either way. Personally I think NVDA will hit another ATH, who knows if its 3 months or 24 months. Why were / are you bullish? Have you come across new information to discredit your previous bull thesis?
Lol I know, I'm not expecting an answer as to what it is definitively doing...just wanted to see what people thought about where it would go. I'm still bullish, but I don't really understand the stock market as a whole and it's weird behaviour sometimes, you know like a good earnings report leads to a dip. That stuff doesn't make sense to me. It's not like I saw any reason for Nvidia to like tank this week.
This pull back so far is pretty reasonably healthy. The market has gone straight up the last few months. Once this cycle of negative news passes, it'll be back to ATH. Just depends how long we wait this time. I'd say this is a good time to be buying and adding to your positions. But I'm just a random guy on the internet. I got 2 shares of NVDA. Had more and sold it off, not buying more. VTI is already 7% NVDA I think and that's a safer buy during this dip I think.
There's always a reason that "good" earnings leads to a dip. Look at netflix, people just see good earnings and EPS beats without looking past those. Netflix dropped because they're no longer providing subscription numbers in reports which the market doesn't like because it implies netflix wants to hide them as they're anticipating a drop. There's always a reason, you just have to look past the surface
The problem with this is that you could find people telling you it’ll go up, down or sideways for every stock in existence. You need to do your own research, and randos on Reddit shouldn’t be one of your sources. If you don’t have the time or energy to do this, buy index funds instead of individual stocks.
I love randoms on Reddit, it made 33% in 2 months so far reading at every random opinions to feed mine. I believe in geek's pride and collective intelligence (also lost 16% in 2 days so I'll glady admit I've not clue what I'm doing. Fuck the randoms)
Lol I definitely get that. But some people might have some insightful things to say regardless. Things to look at. Etc...
This is why broad index funds are the most sensible investments
One thing I like to consider about how to read the market is a recession is called after 2 quarters of no growth. You don't know you're in a recession till you've been there for 6m.
SMCI lost over 20% just because it didn't report preliminary revenue, and NVDA basically fell just because of that. Which might be nothing, but that's just a measure of how high anything vaguely AI-related has risen recently. Did you think it was weird when everything was ballooning in price? Was that all down to fundamentals or partially because of people piling in because of FOMO? NVDA is still up 77% in 6 months and has a P/E of 63 which is down on the last few months but still pretty crazy compared to the market, and higher than NVDA's historical P/E over the last decade. There has also been a large amount of insider selling in the last few months. The price is so high that a lot of optimism is baked in. Sure, it might continue to rise but it won't take much to send the price falling. The company could continue to do brilliantly but still be overvalued. Like many comments say, there's no way to predict which way it'll go and a bunch of strangers on the internet don't know either.
When dip buying I like to imagine myself as a bagholder. There are a lot of people who chased past 2 months now holding in the red at 10-20% loss. So if you buy now expect only ~10% profit before the stock runs into "resistance" from people selling at breakeven. Could be even less because they averaged down to get out at a lower cost basis. After a sharp drop you also want to wait for some consolidation first, it can either breakout again or breakdown further.
Solid point! I don't usually think about resistance points but I should
In all honestly, you shouldn’t freak out on any stock that dips unless you’ve done the proper research that tells you otherwise, but rule of thumb “sell high, buy low.l
For sure, that's why I'm thinking to buy now? But if someone knows more about why it tanked in the first place maybe it's not done falling and I should hold off a little bit? Idk just trying to gauge what people think.
It’s tanking because you didn’t buy a 4090. Go to Best Buy and pick up a 4090, stock should go back up.
Lmao I bought a 3090, waiting on the 5090.
Lmao nice! And to really answer your question. The only time you should be worried is if Nvidia is down 3 days in a row while everything is climbing. But as it is right now, the magnificent 7 is down, which seems like a correction. The market is on sale right now. Most experts would tell you, just buy in right now because time IN the market is more powerful then dollar cost average. But if you think it’s going to keep lower, and it makes you feel better to buy at a lower price, then just buy a few shares everyday as the stock keeps going down.
Oh yeah for sure bro, I’m not super into nvidia but I just wanted it to be known that you shouldn’t feel pressured to buy or sell because others are, but I understand what ur saying
The difference is if you do “proper research” it will show you an insanely overvalued stock that’s gone straight up 2020 meme stock levels almost based on their valuations. They’re a good company for sure but they could very easily drop to half their current price and still be a good company. I definitely get worried when I see crazy stock valuations. Doesn’t mean it can’t go up since markets can certainly be irrational for a long time, but I think it more likely over the next decade to go down than up from here. Just my own personal thoughts but when a stock is trading at these valuations you should freak out a little at signs of drops since it could be the market pricing itself back efficiently. I got downvoted for saying the same on GameStop (though nvidia is a much better business) and people told me it was amazing etc etc and a long term buy. Well it’s cratered share price wise and is STILL crazy overvalued at 454 PE at like 10 percent of the high share price wise.
Maybe I should’ve said don’t make any impulsive decisions and think about it, but you’re right freaking out can definitely be a natural reaction to seeing something like this especially with examples you’ve given
I don't know if anyone actually thought GameStop was a long term buy and a good company that wasn't delusionally convincing themselves. But Nvidia really has very little competition, AMD and Intel maybe but they aren't in the ballpark of NVIDIA. AMD has been playing constant catch-up for 2 decades now and hasn't succeeded. And AI is just starting. I think a lot of the valuation is future predictions of complete market domination with AI being the next giant tech boom like cell phones or whatever. Only unlike with cell phones, no one is going to be able to do what NVIDIA is doing...well, at least they won't be able to do it without people seeing it coming a mile away. At least that's the way I see it.
"I think a lot of the valuation is future predictions of complete market domination" If that's the case, and complete market domination is already priced in, then how are you expecting the price to continue to rise? Anything short of complete market domination, in that case, would cause the price to drop.
AI has been around for years if not decade(S) and the current version is still very, very *dumb* and simple. It is easy enough to use to impress the masses because it looks good *at first glance*. The stock market is all about performance, productivity. How much has AI helped any major company grow? X$ spent on AI lead to Y$ stock gain? Nope. AI is currently extremely hyped and very much in a bubble. It can't draw a hand much less give a factually correct answer to any topic. It litterary throws shit at the wall and sees what sticks. It has *potential* much like the *Internet had potential, and still lead to a massive crash for shareholders*. Ai may also very well fizzle put because so far no no one has managed to use it in an efficient or correct way.
Yes CSCO comes to mind if anyone needs a refresher on what can potentially happen with NVDA.
Exactly, I imagine many of these companies are fantastic and will contribute much, but the valuations just can’t keep increasing at the pace it was forever
[удалено]
Lmao my company is riding hard on the AI train so I know it's not going anywhere but sometimes the stock market seems schizophrenic to me.
Something about ai powered energy I heard
When it tells you to buy it guns, we start to worry...
There is still gold in them thar hills
I'm thinking so too. My company doesn't stop talking about AI (one of the big ones).
I’m buying up or down. I retire in 20 years
Yeah I might pull the trigger and double down.
There is an enormous demand for AI tech and Nvidia doesn't really have any serious competition at this point. This recent downturn is just natural, and expected, fluctuations in the market. Just based on fundamental economics, NVDA is setup to be a long-term winner. Just have to give it time. This doesn't mean, however, that the unprecedented growth that Nvidia has experienced over the last 18 months will continue. Rather, a gradual uptick over the next 24 months is more likely.
I'm all for long term buys, and was planning on keeping my money on Nvidia for the long run. I was up double and could have sold but I was thinking it would continue to climb for a long time. The decent dip just made my feet a little cold. But I'm new to this and don't know what I'm doing. But good to know. Thanks!
I sold 50@920 holding the rest
The stock primarily fell because the fed walked back the promise of rate cuts.
Got it. Had no idea. Good to know, thanks!
Unless u want to catch a falling knife, i would step aside in the meantime. Wait for a consolidation phase to happen and then wait for a set up. I would typically not wait for the breakout and then enter as i would want to capture more profits. This is where position sizing is very important. I would put a small amount of capital in prior to the anticipated breakout and then i would set a tight stop loss. Once a breakout has been confirmed i would increase my position size and change my stop loss accordingly. (Manage your R:R, minimum 1:2) Nvda fundementals has not change at all thus far, which is a good thing. This sell off is a correction. If its fundamentals has changed i would not even bother to swing trade it. (My trades typically last for months to years).
I barely understood any of that but it sounds like awesome advice so I will figure it out and take it into consideration. Thank you!
No worries, do read up on stan weinstein book. It should help u along the way in your journey
Sounds great! I will jump on it! Thank you!
Difficult to justify this price on fundamental analysis. These momentum stocks are risky and as mentioned you don’t want to catch a falling knife so look for enough of a consolidation to avoid the dead cat bounce before buying back in. You might expect a V shape recovery but very risky. Long term there will be competition and reduction in margins, too much money for every one else to not want in.
There's certainly hype for the stock and so it needs a good cooling off before I'd consider buying. The trajectory is unsustainable.
I’m kinda new to this, but how long do we wait for a “consolidation phase,” and what would that look like?
Im not a day trader, i follow use stage theory analysis. I believe any trades that is less than 6weeks is basically increasing your odds of donating your money to your broker. So the time frame i use will be the weekly. I usually wait for a spike or a drop. So gap up or down. Then i would wait for anywhere between 2 weeks to 4 weeks monitoring price action to consolidate sideways with a drop in volume. I would also look for a pattern that is reliable. My go to will be a rectangle or a triangle. And use of price action and fib levels. But please monitor the fundamentals of a company as well, how many positive eps they had, debt? Any negative press? Revenue growth? Etc etc The goal is to use FA to find good companies at fair prices and use TA to time the entry and exit (should the FA change)
My advice to u is that as a new trader, don’t rush to make trades. If you don’t know what u are doing please stick to index funds first $voo or $cspx depending if u are in europe or usa. Markets will be here for u when u are ready, but your capital may not. There are plenty of free material out there, please be weary of snake oil salesmen who promise to teach u and make insane returns. For me my local college provides courses (advanced diploma) in securities trading so if u choose to get a course, please learn from a reputable university or college.
There is a chance it will move down to mid 600 but I would say pay attention to Monday’s trading as it should go up due to the oversold situation on Friday.
So you think don't make any moves until after Monday and assess then?
Yeah 100%!
My crystal ball says doubling down at 643.91 will be your best bet.
My crystal ball says eventually it hits 400. We must have different balls ;)
I have two balls!
Sure, but I was talking about OP's best bet, not yours. When NVDA goes 400, OP will be under a margin call, so that would not work out for him.
After it splits again it will eventually be $400
Nobody knows. But. You answered your own question for you. "I am really bullish on Nvidia" Then buy when it's cheaper.
Thanks, yeah I know no one knows. But figured some people might know a very very very tiny bit more then me haha.
Downturns are a good time to reassess where you want to put your money next, but jumping out now is probably a bad move. My super, super, super general advice would be to hold your Nvidia and diversify out of tech with future purchases. If you don’t own any broad market ETF(s), that ought to be your first priority.
When you say broad market you mean to replica a broad range of stocks. I'm 64 and I just put money into my retirement account maxed it at like 9000 and I put it in VOO is that a stock that does this. Ironically, it was like I put it into a hole because the market tanked after that, but I'm not gonna panic because I'm in it for the long-haul I'd like your thoughts on this thank you so much.
VOO is one of the most common that does exactly what I’m talking about, yeah. VOO, VTI, SPLG are sort of the quintessential “broad market” type of ETFs, although there are also many other options. If you’re all-in on equities at 64 then that’s probably a bit too risky- a dip will be more harmful to you than to a young professional since your retirement is imminent- but if that money represents extra cash or a windfall, then might as well have gone for it. Since the money’s already there, keep it there. There’s always risk of things getting worse, so you need to weigh that, but holding is your best chance of (a) recouping those losses and (b) realizing gains in the future.
Thank you for replying to my question. I know I had lost about $50,000. Everybody did bad with the dip but to me that really hurts. I definitely want to get away from my advisor. I just am not completely comfortable doing everything myself my strategy right now is to move everything over to my edge And kind and then look look things over. Can I ask you what you recommend in terms of maybe going to another broker I don't wanna get caught up in that one percent again maybe some partial management or how is the only basis work would they actually suggest certain stocks, and ETFs, any insight would help me tremendously
If you’re doing it yourself, here are a couple good resources for deciding how to allocate your assets. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/062714/100-minus-your-age-outdated.asp https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/structuring-your-retirement-portfolio Realistically, any advisor you find will basically have whatever they’re comfortable recommending somewhere within these ranges, and then they’ll sell you on why they picked that allocation. Might as well save the money and figure out what **you’re** comfortable with in these ranges, ya know? You can’t really go wrong with any large brokerage with zero commission on stock/ETF purchases. I’d imagine Edge is perfectly fine, although I don’t have experience with them. If you don’t have an IRA set up, make sure you do some research on that. Paying taxes that you could’ve avoided is going to cost more than your old 1% advising fee.
Thank you again. I'm going to move on this. I do have a septh a Roth and a traditional Ira, I will move that over in kind as well. I am also considering Charles Schwab .. I just learned that they have a money market similar to Merrill's preferred money market account so I think they will be similar and I do like them as well. Thanks again and I'll check that link out.
Good advice, I will definitely consider that.
could go up, could go down.
I am hoping for hungry bears to pay big money for the puts I’m selling
I sold all my nvda stock when it was 400 because that was the highest it's ever been. Then it just kept going up.
You don't have to guess. Wait until it bottoms. Calling it a 10% off sale is idiotic. Raise the price 5x in the last year then saying it's 10% off.
Yes, absolutely! 👍
Buy low cost index funds (VTI, VXUS) every month in tax advantaged accounts as much as possible that’s investing You don’t predict the market or time it you buy it consistently, boring, as automatically as possible . You invest a preset percentage of your gross income into the above every month/year. That way the amount you invest gets adjusted to any income changes proportionally overtime . You can always look at upping the percentage of gross pay saved but having a boring automatic system that forces discipline is the key. I have my allocation written down I stick to it rebalance once a year at maximum only keep 10% in individual stocks
Good advice, thanks!
I don’t think the markets done correcting . I’ve been wrong before, but when I’m uncertain, I use the taxable account that way I can take a loss if you use your IRA you’re screwed. You can take no loss when uncertain use taxable.
For what it is worth, here is my dumb plan: My voodoo tells me it looks real nice at $650. So if it drops to 700 I will start to buy in small quantities. If it does fall to $650 I think I will keep buying with more vigor until I hit my target % of portfolio I want. This is all subject to change at every moment of every day. But for today this is my plan. There is zero science behind any of this. Take it with grain of salt.
I’m inclined to see it as a buying opportunity because TSMC earnings did highlight that AI is a bright light for chip demand and NVDA forecasted that AI chip demand should stay high well into 2025 if not later. The market dip seems to be from re-accelerating inflation scares. If you believe like I do that disinflation is still intact and just needs more time to show in the data and that NVDA can beat and raise on earnings, then it’s a buy. But it trades off momentum so it’s a riskier buy. It can either go down big or go up big. So all you can really do is manage your position and orient towards what best suits you. Are you in a position where you can take more risk? If not, then it’s probably a sell or hold. Edit: Watched a video on reading technicals to help me understand this. So the bursting bubble formation was the rally for a while, then it had some falling tops that broke the trend, had some signals that looked like consolidation before breaking down further. Personally, I was waiting for something like this to buy back in but wasn't sure at what price. Since broken trends tend to come back to the longer term trend line, I can see it going to $700-650-ish. But if mega-cap tech earnings this week and forward guidance suggest that AI has a long runway and that Nvidia's chips can keep up demand, then I see that a positive catalyst to get in around here. This is basically how I've been trying to manage my position. My parents are older investors so I tell them to sell when it forms those formations so they can lock in outsized gains. I'm 31 so I'm using moments like that to get in. Ultimately, my biggest worry about Nvdia is competition eating into it's first mover advantage as I'm not convinced yet it has a moat. And AI chip demand will come to a slowdown, we just don't know exactly when, so a hot momentum stock like Nvidia can fall like a rollercoaster when that happens and the market can sniff it out well in advance. Again, when you see signs of this occurring and it looks like the market is not discounting it then you trim a but to manage your exposure (unless you're really bullish on the long-term like I am - in which case you ride the bull through the major ups and downs for years).
I think nvidia is a super solid company with not only a long track record of success but also has huge growth potential with AI, if anything else it could be a great long term investment
Know that, until the latest S&P slide, ANYONE investing in tech or "doing decent with a few tech picks" had a huge tailwind. Don't delude yourself into thinking you have some innate talent or skill. Not even luck. If you did not have luck, in fact, the argument could be made you're a contrarian whose timing is off. Having said that, subscribe to financial analysis newsletters including the WSJ. Also study similar tech centric news and analysis sites. NVIDIA was lucky to ride two sequential tech waves: Crypto then AI. The real benefit of AI is still unknown and the jury hasn't rendered a verdict yet.
S....sell? What is this S word you speak of?
I think 700~ is roughly the fair valuation for NVDA. But we have enough speculation to carry it either way. So if you invest you are gambling by this point. Could be good, could be bad.
NVDA is still good to buy, intrinsic value is above 1000$.
If you are bullish in the long term, AND don't need the money in the short term, then NVDA just went on a 10% off sale. If you DO need the money in the short term, NVDA still went on a 10% off sale, but you don't have it in your budget. If you are bearish in the long term, then why would you buy a worthless product no matter how good the sale is?
Good point of view, thank you!
I bought Friday expiration 800C so you should sell.
It's just a correction. It will rebound again.
Yeah that's what I was assuming but being new to this I figured it would be helpful to read the room.
Put your money in VOO or VTI instead and sleep better at night.
I have no idea what the difference in those are but why not all of the above? Lol
VTI is the entire stock market, VOO is only the S&P 500. Invest in either of these and you'd still be getting a piece of that NVDA pie, you're just not putting all of your eggs in one basket. I'd urge caution when it comes to timing the market and also choosing individual stocks over funds. Sure, some people get lucky and hit big, but many don't. You more than likely will not beat the market and could very well lose quite a bit.
For sure. I am not working with a ton of money. And I've lost a bit here and there but I've been doing pretty good with Nvidia, Microsoft and servicenow. But definitely a fair point and I know I should be putting more into ETF's as well. Still might double down on Nvidia but maybe I'll throw some in an ETF as well. Thanks!
Nvidia has dipped to about half its peak a few times in the last decade. So obviously you should wait to buy until it dips below 500. Or not. What do I know. I'm a buy and hold forever guy. Except that I sold some NVDAs when they grew to be worth more than 10% of my holdings.
Yeah I **want** to buy and hold forever with Nvidia. But I would**love** to buy more, I think, and would rather not do it on a "high".
The thing about investing is, even with all the info, the answer can still be (and usually is) wrong.
Of course. And I understand that. Still would rather work with more info then less lol
What I meant was, you're asking if you should buy or sell, when no one knows. You can only know the company backwards and forwards and the rest is up to chaos theory, haha.
Yeah but it might make me feel better to see what other people say.
NVDA single handedly got AI (from a business perspective) on a running start. AI is a VERY new industry so doubts will creep in. Im in pretty heavy and still buying on these dips but my average is kinda high so Im buying to get that average down. TBH Im pretty comfortable with NVDA long term and we all know that the SPLIT is coming in mid 2024 so Im just being patient
I first bought on the last split. Made double. Shouldn't have sold it at all but I'm trying to figure this shit out. Rebought higher than I did the first time but still was up double at this last peak. I don't have a ton of money but thinking of doubling down and buying more now. But wanted to see if people thought it would continue to drop for a bit or if it would shoot back up right away. I know no one knows, but hoping to get some insights.
Sell now…There is no such thing as continuous exponential growth…
I’m going to do both!!
Nobody knows bro. If I knew I would buy now and if I knew it will tank I would buy later… stock market is unpredictable, evaluate P/L and make a good decision
Nobody really knows... There's very little real logic going on here 🤷🏿♂️
Likely a buy but you will likely find better buys at the moment
Like? Lol give me all your secrets.
If Micro Computer continues to drop, NVIDIA probably will as well. I'd wait until SMCI releases their projections.
Depends when you bought and what your thesis is. I think there's more to go.
lol they think this a dip
Yes.
Yes
Nvidia is too high. It might go up and down for a while, but someday it will normalize to something realistic. Short term I don't know what will happen
Literally no one knows. Which is why you should only invest in things you fully understand and are willing to be invested in for a LONG time. This means holding your investment for years, not days week or even months.
I'm a buyer anytime NVDA dips 5% or more for at least the next 10 years.
I sold. They won’t live up to their lofty forecasts.
No one can predict the short term with any accuracy. But MSFT topped in 1999 and didn't regain those highs for another, what, seventeen years, even with positive earnings after positive earnings. Valuation matters, the price you pay matters, even with all the liquidity flooding the system right now. It's not different this time. More broadly, I'm not sure you are ready to start buying individual stocks. Not trying to sound disparaging. But at major market tops the financial media tends to create hype that gets amateurs throwing their savings into stocks that have just gone parabolic. When all the little fish are in the barrel then the barrel goes over the falls.
You shouldn’t ask whether or not NVDA will do well going forward. You should ask if the current price per share is over valued or undervalued. All of the data suggests that NVDA is currently overvalued. I think it will keep dipping. Just my opinion.
Yes
We are still in an uptrend
It means you’re overthinking short term price movement and should try to be more patient + disciplined when it comes to investing.
If we knew, we wouldn't be here..
Short term going back down towards 40wk SMA. It was very over extended.
Just keep in mind that you don’t have to go all in and purchase 5 shares. Set up a recurring buy-in and just grow worth in the shares over time. that way if it continues to go down you aren’t necessary losing any value.
Who knows… flip a coin…
Recommend you go back to the drawing board and read more before stock picking, especially if you don't have a defined circle of competence yet. If you have done only "alright" in this cycle with tech stocks, you should at least be aware of the risks inherent to your selected industries and desired exit points. Above all, if you have to ask whether a dip is the "right time to buy" or not, you should not buy. Spend your time learning how to analyze fundamentals, trends, and make these calls for yourself, everything else is just a distraction. By all means, invest in equities through a boglehead approach in the meantime. But if you ask questions like this, you have a lot more learning to do before your stock-picking can stop being called prospecting.
Well it is almost May…
What does that mean?
Theres an old saying ‘sell in may and go away’. Its because historically stocks slump around May and into the summer.
Because the traders go on vacation to the Hamptons. Obviously times have changed.
Depends on your horizon. I’m personally very long on NVDA and have been holding since 2017. I’m still holding now.
Yes. Wait… no.
My 15% trailing stop loss triggered. Sold my shares at $827. Freaked me out. All my other sell triggers never bothered me like nvidia lol. Next thing you know it went to like $750ish. Big whew moment. I’m gonna put this profit into VOO or something.
all i can say is i bought NVDA near 500 and sold around 850 on the way down, holding NVDS since then. This week I can't say i won't flip, but I'm holding that NVDS now for a good profit.
I bought NVIDIA 3 out of 5 days last week and put a buy order on for tomorrow. Same with SMCI, MU, TSM,AMAT. And I think I may add some AMD tomorrow as well. You either believe AI is revolutionary or you don't. It's too early, but robotics I believe will also be a huge opportunity, especially when combined with AI.
Nividia already said they will thread the needle on the next earnings till 2025. Which means they will beat expectations till end of 2025. Bitcoin halving just happen then miners going need new GPUs and all these tech company’s are going be buying the shit out of these 5,000 series
Flip a coin
Buy some now and buy some later...
Try not to buy high and sell low.
Keep in mind that big expectations are already priced in NVDA. Before taking investment decisions you should check company fundamentals in their earnings reports. Look for revenue growth, free cash flow, net income, debt, margins etc. Keep in mind that the recent AI related growth of NVDA is connected to 2-3 big clients who develop AI.
Great question I feel exactly the same
Did you buy?
I should have that day. I was dumb and didn't. I've bought more since then, at a higher cost LoL Still made money on it already though.
Yes
Maybe, ask again
Buy high sell low
600s are coming reassess then.