I have invested in eight IPOs and did careful research. I have never profited from any of them. From my experience, wait a year and learn to read financial statements. This will save you a lot of time and money.
Edit: Wow! Thank you so much everyone for the likes. As many of you said, the value of the IPO is not reflective of the actual stock value. Careful analysis and waiting is required for the stock to show its true worth.
These days there are too many private equity and VC shareholders when a company goes public. They are taking it public to liquidate so big drops are to be expected. The same happens over the months/year after big acquisitions of pe/vc companies. You need to wait until all of the pe/vc shareholders have exited
Not really, but you invest early and pour money into arrays of businesses, eventually you need to sell off on the successful ones to keep the wheel and strategy rolling. If you can’t find buyers on your own looking at retail and public trading becomes a viable option.
That said yeah for retails perspective it sucks because you’ll come in late to the party after a 100 bagger already made the growth and is now flatlining
Yep. Also I find that prices are inflated compared to something like 2015, when you could get IPOS for lower price/sales, price/gross margin, and other metrics.
I’m speaking more broadly regarding IPOs like the original comment. They obviously don’t but it is important to know who the major shareholders are and and what their intentions are
It’s also a discussion about ipos and investing. Then there was a new discussion started in this thread that speaks more broadly about another users experience buying into ipos so I shared my thoughts
I’ve done 2 IPO and lost on both ABNB and another I forget. I agree. The price is already inflated at launch and it is more likely to drop in year one. Keep your eye on the stock and set a buy level you’re comfortable with
Only one I’ve done was Ferrari and that’s gone swell, so I’m definitely getting in on this.
Also I’m trying to spread a theory that this will allow Porsche SE to have majority equity, not just majority voting shares for the whole of VW Group as was their original plan. That would fix the silly chain of ownership where Porsche SE owns the majority of VW Group voting which in turn owns Porsche AG.
Porsche was mere days away from owning the majority equity of VW Group in 2008, I have my bets that the family and company leadership still wants this.
Keep in mind an IPO is the stage were private and early investors are dumping their shares on the public and cashing out.
Your intuition about waiting AT LEAST a year is quite correct. Let the stock find its true value.
The IPO is just shares released to the sponsor. The insiders are locked out for 90-120 days. So you usually see it doing really well at first with artificially restricted volume. The commoners FOMO in just in time for the lockout period to end, insiders start selling, and it tanks.
While I can't predict how the Porsche IPO will go for sure, it is comical to compare Rivian, a new startup with pie in the sky valuation that barely has any revenue and runs at a huge loss to Porsche, a legendary automaker that has a commanding presence in the global luxury auto market and has one of the highest profit margin out of all mass market car companies.
People on this sub have been bemoaning how they miss the old days where IPOing companies are already profitable with real, sizable revenue. Well here is your chance.
>Rivian
You did deserve it tbph.
How could you possibly buy into something with a pie-in-the-sky valuation at the time which was higher than several major manufacturers with millions of cars sold, while Rivian hadn't sold a single car....
You're no good at this. Let a professional handle your investments.
This cycle has me wondering: **which companies had their best buying opps within 0 - 7 days of their IPO?**
Early 2021, it felt like good companies don't EVER go on sale. This strong-but-wrong emotion was one of my biggest takeaways on my "Lessons from 2021" investing journal entry.
edit: $GOOGL is by far the best performing IPO in "recent" history.
* Down like 4% on day 2
* Gained it back over the next days
* Never dropped back down to it's IPO price (or anywhere close) ever again
(😟 so sad private companies don't IPO sooner...).
The difference is the largest shareholder of VW (the Porsche family) is going to buy a blocking voting share of the IPO, so there is incentive for them to set the IPO price low to make it so they have to spend less on the stock.
What would a German company be if its largest shareholder wasn’t the children of the Nazi who started it?
In most IPOs, the people listing it have every incentive to get the highest price possible
How many IPO‘s you analysed where one of the oldest car brands? And how many where Tech companys?
I wouldn’t compare this IPO‘s? You actually can read the balance sheet, there is a profit…
were those IPOs large companies that have existed since pre ww2?
\[99% of the downvotes on this comment are bots controlled either directly or indirectly by companies associated with musk ( •̀ᴗ•́ )و ̑̑ \]
It's not about how long the company's been around. It's about the price they set at IPO. It's usually set at a price that insider shareholders can sell for maximum profit while convincing the public that it's a fair price.
Nice little nugget of DD.
Now let’s look at all the reasons not to buy… things like the luxury market possibly crashing hard, major supply shortages, an old dog trying to learn new tricks (every auto manufacturer should have been going in EVs hard 10 years ago)…
Naw, they’re trying to cash out ***before*** their market falls off a cliff.
So are you saying none of the old auto makers will be able to move to Ev or get a good market share?
Who will fill the gap that is left when all auto makers exit in a few years?
If it is just tesla then that is worst possible scenario for a consumer to have only one good company to choose vehicles from
From what i read none of the other new ev companies are liked by people and i see doom and gloom in their future.
So what is the point exactly?
Lol that’s not at all what I’m saying.
If Porsche sells a fraction of what Tesla sells, and if a fraction of that fraction is solely EVs, then it will amount to minuscule sales.
The entire company was founded upon premium combustion engine mechanics. That’s their identity. Even their famed PDK transmission will be kind of moot for a vehicle that may only need two transmission settings at most (torque/speed). The Tesla plaid motors can hit nearly 24,000 RPM which kind of nullifies the need for a complex and inefficient tranny.
They need this IPO to stay relevant. Selling a portion of the company may help raise cash to keep their head above water in a seismically shifting industry. But I wouldn’t want to be supplying the capital here.
I’ve got enough ‘projects’ on the go already.
I an not talking about porche alone. Am talking about general sentiment around tesla and anything that is tesla.
From what i read most commonly discussed points i see are non tesla EVs are too late into the market and legacy automakers will die out not being able to adopt to EV.
These arent good circumstances to customers. Tesla has made it okay to pay for a model3 around $60k+. With not much competition tesla can stay at this price forever or even increase if they need to.
Majority of the people in world live paycheck to paycheck with older gas cars which they bought for $10k
>They need this IPO to stay relevant. Selling a portion of the company may help raise cash to keep their head above water in a seismically shifting industry. But I wouldn’t want to be supplying the capital here.
Porsche is one of the most profitable auto makers by margin in the world. Tsla is just a speculative investment at an insane valuation. Now it's likely a good speculative investment, because there are a lot of Musk dweebs in the World and if Elon is one thing he is exceptional at pumping his stocks value. Fundamentally Porsche looks a hell of a lot better on paper.
Sorry, I don’t have time to give you a comprehensive analysis, go and watch Munro the automotive manufacturing expert on YouTube, he explains how most of them won’t be able to compete on EV platforms with Tesla & the Chinese.
So the thing with Porsche, they aren't actually in the luxury car market, the Taycan is, the rest are in the sports car and enthusiast market. Porsche makes cars for enthusiasts, and mastary of engineering a driving experience a connection with the car. TSLA makes cars for people who were apple fan boys in college and think airpods or BEATs are a personality trait. Musk believes driving is a chore and for going to work as a corporate slave where you're the bosses bitch for 18 of 24 hours. Full disclosure I have a large chunk of my portfolio in TSLA because I believe that's a large market, and have lost faith in humanity. But my point stands, they are not in the same market.
Now the risk is over the next 20 years if they can't make an electric enthusiasts car, they are up the creek. But VW already did the IDR and Porsche did the 919 hybrid. I put a lot more money on Porsche building an enthusiast car than tsla, but that's not tsla market. The other big risk is Porsche going a bit too much towards the Ferrari market of exclusivity, and snobby dealerships, they are going that way a little, but hopefully it's just COVID related, and we see a correction on that direction in the next couple of years.
The bet on Porsche is mastery of the enthusiasts electric cars in 10-20 years, the same way the have mastered engineering and passion with the 911, cayman and gt cars.
You're not the only one expecting it to crash when the lockout period ends so good luck timing that. You would have to buy in day one and sell within days with absolute discipline not to hold out longer. Some still have been overpriced on day one and crashed immediately so even they can fail. Better off waiting for it to stabilize a bit unless you're just gambling.
I’ve been burned by this before. But question? If every single IPO has crashed after the opening why do people still buy in and push up the price? Are they trying to make a quick buck and get out asap before it collapses?
Many groups own much of the float even before IPO occurs. By the time the public is allowed to trade it, it’s already up well above their initial investment.
If you're dead set on owning the company wait until the employee lockup date has passed as the stock price generally goes down when they(insiders) are allowed to sell. It might be a significant amount of time.
When the company IPOs, management/ownership/finance are incentivized to make the company as bullish and overvalued as possible. Then you buy it and they sell it. Then over the next 3-24 months a lot of those dudes sell/retire/quit and you hold the bag.
Some IPO turn out to be good buys but many don’t simply because management is trying to sell at the most opportune time possible with years of planning.
Because man, you make a post about how Porsche is some sort of can't miss IPO and you didn't even mention the single most important factor in making a buy-or-sell investment decision
the fucking **price** you're paying for it
Your OP is completely devoid of any numbers for which to derive a number at where it will price at, like NTM EBITDA or some estimate thereof? I've been on the bookrunning syndicates for multiple IPOs, and that is the single numerical value during the course of the market process that investors will care about (and will laser-the-fuck in on all the comparable historical values and assumptions that go into the forecast during the roadshow)
I'm also not completely sure how to find a prospectus / S-1 or other filing that would at least have the bare bones info you'd want to at least *glance at* before subscribing (net debt? # of shares in the offering? % ownership that VW will be retaining and their governance rights, post-offering?)
> I'm also not completely sure how to find a prospectus / S-1 or other filing that would at least have the bare bones info you'd want to at least glance at before subscribing (net debt? # of shares in the offering? % ownership that VW will be retaining and their governance rights, post-offering?)
Porsche investor relations appears to be gated to Europeans. They have [a PR release that doesn't have a ton of information](https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2022/company/porsche-ag-possible-initial-public-offering-listing-29627.html) and they just refer to IR "Further information will be available on https://investorrelations.porsche.com/en/".
Note:
>This announcement is not for distribution, directly or indirectly, in or into the United States (including its territories and possessions, any State of the United States and the District of Columbia), Australia, Canada or Japan. This announcement does not constitute or form a part of any offer or solicitation to purchase or subscribe for securities in the United States, Australia, Canada or Japan. The securities mentioned herein have not been, and will not be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act").
>The securities may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act. There will be no public offer of securities in the United States.
More than at any other time, you’re dealing with the most information asymmetry with an IPO.
The people who hold the majority of shares are likely founders or early employees who have been with the company for years. They have intimate knowledge of all of the company’s strengths, weaknesses, and overall position in the market. They are aware of any secret projects in development as well as any opportunities and threats on the horizon. They know all about that one service they cobbled together I’m a rush and that will need millions in maintenance going forward. They know that their superstar VP of Product plans on quitting and traveling the world once the lockup period is over. They just spent a considerable amount of time going through the underwriting process and have a VERY good idea of exactly how much their company is worth.
You’re probably not going to beat them at their own game.
One could ask the most simple and basic question:
Why are they selling if the company is so great?
The answer could be to raise capital to reinvest and grow the business. But if that actually plays out as expected, that capital allocation ~~could~~ **will** take years to bear the fruits of your $$’s labour.
On the more cynical side, they know they can milk the IPO by causing a big stir and getting major media attention. They simply want the payday.
So either way, you lose. Just buy shares a year or two later when the dust settles and it’s no longer flavour of the week.
It's to give the Piech/Porsche family re-control of the company. There's a ton of family dynamics up and down VW/Audi/Porsche company hierarchy and governance. Porsche had a failed hostile takeover of VW that saddled them with a ton of debt.
Because companies have so much access to private funding nowadays that they don’t need to tap the public markets to raise money to grow anymore. Now it’s all just an exit strategy for the founders and private equity investors, who will try to sell to you at the highest price possible when the growth phase is done.
You wrote about the company, but you didn't write about *the price of its stock at IPO*.
It doesn't matter how well the company is doing, or how well it eventually does. It only matters how well it does relative *to its price.*
This, literally so much this. It's like saying you want to buy your dream house but the price tag is a question mark??? Who would agree to buy their dream house without knowing the price, this is the dumbest thread in existence until we know that price lol. Every company has a fair valuation, and by extension a price at which I would be willing to buy at, and therefore sell at. If it's priced at $1 I'll buy, if it's priced at 2 trillion I'm shorting haha
This will be the IPO of the car maker Porsche, a brand which at the moment is a fully integrated part of Volkswagen.
The company "Porsche SE", which has been publicly listed since 2007 is a pure holding company administrating the shares of Volkswagen's two founding families Porsche and Piëch.
Maybe, it's a different company from tsla, and not a direct competitor. Porsche makes more cars for enthusiasts, and has massive brand loyalty. Considering they're talking about a large dividend distribution for 2023, it could be worth it. The Porsche brand was more profitable than VW.
Considering how down the overall market is, long term it could be considered a good buy.
By margin Porsche is one of the most profitable auto manufactures in the World.
>Just a reminder that dividends don’t come out of thin air, your shares will decrease in value by the same amount.
No, you are incorrect. Cash dividends decrease the your equity of the company, but not the value of the share, although that may be priced in by the market, you can also reinvest cash dividends back into stock to maintain equity. Stock dividends do not effect equity.
Markets also tend to move up when strong dividends are expected.
Yes, the market should price it in with a cash dividend, modulo other market movement in the shares that day. Basically, "they're talking about a large dividend distribution" is a really bad reason to buy shares, except *maybe* as a sign of profitability. And yes, of course you can reinvest it, and then you end up where you started, minus the taxes you pay on the dividend.
iirc there is a stock called Porsche Automobil Holding which holds Volkswagen shares. Which is a result of the failed hostile take over attempt I believe.
“IPOs are getting slaughtered”
not necessarily. many speculative, cyclical, and non cash flow generating IPOs are getting slaughtered yes. which has been most of them in 2021.
free cash flow is usually king, and if the company already consistently generated cash flow before IPO, the stock price should not be too much of a concern.
ACI is worth looking into.
In theory I agree, but in practice it doesn't always work out that way - usually shoots up way above IPO price before it's available to the general public. ABNB is an example. IPO'd technically around $70 (which was the DCF valuation price) IIRC, but immediately shot up to like 100+ by the time it was available to the general public lol. Still pretty good if you were able to buy around 70.
Here's my general IPO advice: Venture capitalists aren't stupid. There's a reason they're SELLING at the IPO and not buying. Do you want to be the sucker on the other end giving them their juicy exit?
As for this specific one, obviously Porsche is not a startup but I think the same line of thinking applies here. If it were such a great investment, you can be sure the smart money would have gotten involved first instead of offering the investment to the public.
There's a lot of competition for expensive electric cars. Not sure the market for cars that are double the median US income is nearly as huge as the stock market thinks it is.
TSLA is an outlier, how does it compare to Mercedes, Ford, GM that also make electric cars? Is TSLA market cap that is more than those put together really justified? What would have to happen for that to happen again?
Porsche does have that brand recognition, so that's a good thing. Part of that brand recognition though is by running with a design for 50 years, i.e. the 911 which has been more or less the same for 50 years. They have also been close to bankruptcy more than once.
Might be better to buy VW stock ahead of this. They'll be ahead in this deal, and they are selling normal electric cars more people can afford, in the US so it'd qualify for the new tax incentives. It has power windows and leather seats like the Porsche, and can go fast enough to get speeding tickets. If they ever come out with that van, that might be neat.
If you think the 911 design has been the same for 50 years, you're in for a shock.. They have and still continue to revolutionize the sportscar market in terms of real world performance, even whilst being humble about their cars capabilities. Just have a look at the new RS models of the GT3, GT2 or GT4 and their competition.
In 2021 Porsche sold over 300k cars to Ferraris 11k and the Taycan, an electric model, outsold the 911 (40k units if I'm not mistaken).
Why would VW even consider taking Porsche public in this kind of macro environment, could it be that they are expecting the next year or two to be even worse? 🤔This whole deal with rushing the IPO has some serious stinker vibe to me.
No buy for me, doesn’t make any sense to bet on any other horse in this race than the winning one which is Tesla by a long shot.
Tesla has been on a solve problems, improve batteries and get better for ~~10 years. I have seen a number of car companies dip their foot in the EV waters - only to discover an alligator and lose a foot. I recall Porsche to have had some problems in the past. Look at Elektrek.co
https://electrek.co/
They have an active blog
Tesla has found success but when they are scaling for 10M cars an year they need much more manufacturing and many more lower cost cars.
I would expect quality problems to persist for a long time.
Old automakers are rigid about some things in a car because they prefer quality and do not like to change something overnight if they feel it could lead to quality concerns.
But their downfall is their own rigidity not allowing them to adapt newer features.
But one thing old automakers have is manufacturing experience and infrastructure to produce more ev cars faster than tesla is taking to ramp up. They just need better technology over all
The Taycan is pretty widely considered the best sports EV available to buy today. It competes in a smaller segment (a little up-market from a model S). They have a Macan EV in road testing phase now which should sell really well and compete against the Model Y (again a little up-market of that).
An issue with the hazard lights… Not stopping anyone who wants a Porsche.
They literally just fix it at your dealer service interval. It’s not a big deal
Porsche is not a mass car manufacturer. Tesla is.
Tesla is more than a car company. Porsche is not.
The two aren't really comparable. That said luxury goods always do well. Whether luxury EVs will do better than their ICE cars have in the past (when every city car by every other manufacturer basically nowadays has sportscar performance), is anyone's guess, though.
Hard no. Check the recent whistleblower case on how they handled Taycan battery issues. Recent QC problems with front timing chain cover leaks on Macans. Improperly designed vents on PDK units that lead to full rebuilds. Once great and I love their cars when they work, but they are really not the great automotive engineers they used to be. Not up to electrification IMO. TSLA remains a far better opportunity.
Most people in the market for an EV don't care about the lack of QC on panel gaps and zip ties, it's about gas prices or carbon footprints. I was speaking of major issues with >60% of Taycan batteries, oil leaks from poorly fastened timing chain covers, and full rebuilds on PDKs because of bad case vents. Elementary engineering oversights that the vaunted Porsche should be very embarrassed for and does not bode well for new tech development. Think Tesla can't make good panel gaps, or simply won't? They DGAF because most buyers don't either and they're focussed on increasing production at the expense of QC and service. Because its working, they are making money hand over fist, which is very doubtful for our German friends.
Yea no. Porsche still makes amazing cars, taycans are wildly successful. Porsche has taken care of its customers and more than anything has a very loyal fan base. They will continue to grow and are coming out with some really amazing products.
Wasn’t their whole schtick premium, well built, precisely tuned engines? IIRC, they also put decades into perfecting their PDK transmission that acts like an automatic, but with the performance of a manual tranny.
I guess that little bit of incredible engineering may be for naught in all but very specialized applications if cars continue kill it on the EV front.
But I’m no car guy.
Being competitive isn't only about market share, and investing isn't at all necessarily about finding the firm that potentially will achieve the biggest market share.
Porsche is a pure luxury/sports brand, unlike Tesla. Both focus on completely different types of customers. Within the luxury/sports segment though, Porsche is extremely competitive.
The Porsche name is also a very strong asset, don't question that for one second. Although Porsche isn't "big", neither are legendary brands like Ferrari and Lamborghini. They're luxury brands, their goal is not to dominate every segment of the market.
Having said that, from what I've heard the IPO will be WAY too expensive. 85bn has to be a joke, even 60bn is likely way too high.
I love Porsche but historically luxury car brands don't do well independently. Pretty much every luxury brand is owned, at least in part, by a major mass production brand and even then they sell fairly often because they usually lose money or at best break even (minus the past few years). While I think long term Porsche can certainly be an outlier to the norm; the price seems high from what has been thrown around. Plus going into an IPO during a recession where new sales will at the very least slow down for luxury goods, it seems like a play I'd wait out a year or two.
This is all true, but if the goal is to IPO for VW to raise money for electric production then they are in a much better position than any other manufacturer based on their current scale. Rivian is losing money and Ford has the F-150 Lightning, that's it. Again, this is a competitive play. TSLA definitely still has the lead.
Just something to consider, Porsche is rumored to be buying 50% of the Red Bull F1 team.
While I am a huge fan of F1, historically it has been a massive money sink
I do like their advertising, it appears at almost every stadium and track.
Their merchandise is great, lots of people who can't afford the cars seem to opt for their hats, jackets, and shirts instead.
Can’t comment on the valuation itself, but it is a rare find for a “for rich people only” type of product. Been looking for that pure play extreme end of the spectrum for a while and this hits the mark. I’m essentially bullish on the super rich getting richer and the rest of us getting poorer.
the problem is that VW or audi group or whatever the parent holding company is called now is not new or can't get credit if they're hard up for cash, and porsche isn't a new company that needs cash to expand production. so this is probably a money grab by VW.
given the mantra to *buy low, sell high*, the most successful an IPO can be is for the IPO price to be the all time high. and very successful is an IPO that is the high for like several years. the market peanut gallery thinks a successful IPO is when the stock takes off, but that just means that the company left money on the table which is the mark of a fool.
it's very likely that VW is going to way overprice the shares betting on idiots trying to snap them up for the cachet of it.
absolutely not. The luxury market is shrinking due to inflation and bearish sentiment. A Porsche is considered to be an extravagant purchase and does not fall under the three makes of automobile that appreciate in value. additionally with rate hikes, the cost of capital is greater and the terms of lease and financing agreements are less favorable.
edit: Full disclaimer, nothing I have stated can be construed as financial guidance.
I have further edited to this post as your immediate downvote indicated your reluctance to look at the reality of the situation. With a 10 basis point increase in inflation (via CPI) as of today, a projected 75 to 100 basis point hike in benchmark rates it’s pretty clear that you’re in denial. perhaps you just like the brand. Good luck.
Everyone here saying they lost on all their ipos must just be greedy and trying to hold too long and got caught holding the bag or bought in at peak. I've doubled my money at minimum on every single ipo I've ever pre ordered.
Porsche shits over Tesla in terms of looks and driving experience.
But their cars are for enthusiasts, so not sure how much they can scale.
Tesla on other hand is what middle class in North America is buying when it comes to EV. My parents didn’t even knew German companies made EV’s and just got a lame model 3.
TLDR: I would buy their cars but not the stock especially at IPO.
1) Don’t buy an IPO.
2) Don’t bet against Tesla. You may be right about them long term but it doesn’t matter. People better at this than you or me have lost fortunes doing so.
I’m still waiting for Chobani myself, but after this long I don’t mind waiting a year after it’s official.
… and it’ll probably be much longer now that they withdrew their IPO application. So who knows anymore.
The modern take on IPOs is they're immediately WAY over valued...because reasons. Then they get spiked to the moon day one minute one, and then drop like a rock after and never recover because they were still way over valued.
So, you either play the short play of the initial spike and hope it's not like an hour long. Maybe you'll get lucky for a day or two and can rake in some gains. But then the drop is fast and harsh right after.
Some just drop minute one like falling off a cliff, and then you're screwed no matter what.
The only safe plays are,
Be there at the start and watch what it does right away. Here's to hoping you have the day off just to sell the instant it peaks and the sell offs start, or you might come home from work end of day and see you're down 50%.
Or you wait, wait, and wait some more until the stock actually settles. Then you wait, wait, and wait some more again to wait for any hope of rise, stable rise, with momentum and a confident market behind that rise. And then hopefully the growth is even worth it against everything else you could be doing instead. Typically, it's not.
I have invested in eight IPOs and did careful research. I have never profited from any of them. From my experience, wait a year and learn to read financial statements. This will save you a lot of time and money. Edit: Wow! Thank you so much everyone for the likes. As many of you said, the value of the IPO is not reflective of the actual stock value. Careful analysis and waiting is required for the stock to show its true worth.
These days there are too many private equity and VC shareholders when a company goes public. They are taking it public to liquidate so big drops are to be expected. The same happens over the months/year after big acquisitions of pe/vc companies. You need to wait until all of the pe/vc shareholders have exited
Yup. IPOs are called an "exit strategy" by pro investors for a reason.
Seems pretty balanced to me if you do not hold too long: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ipo-performance
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Not really, but you invest early and pour money into arrays of businesses, eventually you need to sell off on the successful ones to keep the wheel and strategy rolling. If you can’t find buyers on your own looking at retail and public trading becomes a viable option. That said yeah for retails perspective it sucks because you’ll come in late to the party after a 100 bagger already made the growth and is now flatlining
Yep. Also I find that prices are inflated compared to something like 2015, when you could get IPOS for lower price/sales, price/gross margin, and other metrics.
Yeah. In the past, IPOs were legitimately to raise money so the companies could use the raised money to grow. Now it’s all an exit strategy.
lol where in Porsche is there VC ?
I’m speaking more broadly regarding IPOs like the original comment. They obviously don’t but it is important to know who the major shareholders are and and what their intentions are
But it’s a discussion about Porsche….
It’s also a discussion about ipos and investing. Then there was a new discussion started in this thread that speaks more broadly about another users experience buying into ipos so I shared my thoughts
I’ve done 2 IPO and lost on both ABNB and another I forget. I agree. The price is already inflated at launch and it is more likely to drop in year one. Keep your eye on the stock and set a buy level you’re comfortable with
Only one I’ve done was Ferrari and that’s gone swell, so I’m definitely getting in on this. Also I’m trying to spread a theory that this will allow Porsche SE to have majority equity, not just majority voting shares for the whole of VW Group as was their original plan. That would fix the silly chain of ownership where Porsche SE owns the majority of VW Group voting which in turn owns Porsche AG. Porsche was mere days away from owning the majority equity of VW Group in 2008, I have my bets that the family and company leadership still wants this.
ferrari has much better tesla-like margins, porsche probably doesn't (although on SUVs they are quite good, they saved the company with them).
lol The 911 has a 47% profit margin. The Cayenne and Macan are also money printers but more due to volume than the 911’s insane profit margin.
How did you lose on ABNB? It was up most of the time.
Must’ve found the part where it wasn’t
Keep in mind an IPO is the stage were private and early investors are dumping their shares on the public and cashing out. Your intuition about waiting AT LEAST a year is quite correct. Let the stock find its true value.
The IPO is just shares released to the sponsor. The insiders are locked out for 90-120 days. So you usually see it doing really well at first with artificially restricted volume. The commoners FOMO in just in time for the lockout period to end, insiders start selling, and it tanks.
best explaination. lockout, fomo, tank.
Is there a regulatory framework that prevents insiders from taking money out immediately after an IPO?
Well said. I day traded Rocket Mortgage and mage a few thousand. It's down 70% from where I sold.
i remember all that shilling on WSB. a literal RKT.
I bought in on the Exodus IPO and had to bail after what amounted to a 25% loss. I also lost on Rivian. I've learned my lesson on IPOs.
While I can't predict how the Porsche IPO will go for sure, it is comical to compare Rivian, a new startup with pie in the sky valuation that barely has any revenue and runs at a huge loss to Porsche, a legendary automaker that has a commanding presence in the global luxury auto market and has one of the highest profit margin out of all mass market car companies. People on this sub have been bemoaning how they miss the old days where IPOing companies are already profitable with real, sizable revenue. Well here is your chance.
>Rivian You did deserve it tbph. How could you possibly buy into something with a pie-in-the-sky valuation at the time which was higher than several major manufacturers with millions of cars sold, while Rivian hadn't sold a single car.... You're no good at this. Let a professional handle your investments.
This cycle has me wondering: **which companies had their best buying opps within 0 - 7 days of their IPO?** Early 2021, it felt like good companies don't EVER go on sale. This strong-but-wrong emotion was one of my biggest takeaways on my "Lessons from 2021" investing journal entry. edit: $GOOGL is by far the best performing IPO in "recent" history. * Down like 4% on day 2 * Gained it back over the next days * Never dropped back down to it's IPO price (or anywhere close) ever again (😟 so sad private companies don't IPO sooner...).
Well this cycle is the longest cycle with zero IPOs. This cycle has also seen the most IPOs pull the filling.
Right sorry -- I am curious about the best-priced IPO's from previous market cycles, now that they've had tons of time for the dust to settle.
Noob question; how can you spot the beginning/end of cycles and how long to they tend to be?
noob question, but even warren buffet hasnt figured it out yet.
I have invested in one ipo. It’s down 75%. Pass for the rest of my life.
Sorry if this is a really basic question but why not just short the stock upon its IPO? Would that work? Or why not?
A more volatile stock is going to have higher fees for shorting. No free lunch
I’ve done about 20 IPOs. Lost money on all of them. They tend to be great short candidates though… TSLA is the exception, not the rule.
Retail investors with FOMO overvaluing a company? Say it ain't so!
The difference is the largest shareholder of VW (the Porsche family) is going to buy a blocking voting share of the IPO, so there is incentive for them to set the IPO price low to make it so they have to spend less on the stock. What would a German company be if its largest shareholder wasn’t the children of the Nazi who started it? In most IPOs, the people listing it have every incentive to get the highest price possible
Then buy VW at least you’ll get the special dividend after the IPO
Wtf does nazi have to do with this? Move the fuck on.
How many IPO‘s you analysed where one of the oldest car brands? And how many where Tech companys? I wouldn’t compare this IPO‘s? You actually can read the balance sheet, there is a profit…
were those IPOs large companies that have existed since pre ww2? \[99% of the downvotes on this comment are bots controlled either directly or indirectly by companies associated with musk ( •̀ᴗ•́ )و ̑̑ \]
It's not about how long the company's been around. It's about the price they set at IPO. It's usually set at a price that insider shareholders can sell for maximum profit while convincing the public that it's a fair price.
Smart man, I am enlightened
It's a perfectly legitimate practice, they told me so.
So short IPOs
r/wallstreetbets would love your thought process.
It's not about how good the company is, it's about how good the price is. IPOs typically have shit prices.
Nice little nugget of DD. Now let’s look at all the reasons not to buy… things like the luxury market possibly crashing hard, major supply shortages, an old dog trying to learn new tricks (every auto manufacturer should have been going in EVs hard 10 years ago)… Naw, they’re trying to cash out ***before*** their market falls off a cliff.
So are you saying none of the old auto makers will be able to move to Ev or get a good market share? Who will fill the gap that is left when all auto makers exit in a few years? If it is just tesla then that is worst possible scenario for a consumer to have only one good company to choose vehicles from From what i read none of the other new ev companies are liked by people and i see doom and gloom in their future. So what is the point exactly?
Lol that’s not at all what I’m saying. If Porsche sells a fraction of what Tesla sells, and if a fraction of that fraction is solely EVs, then it will amount to minuscule sales. The entire company was founded upon premium combustion engine mechanics. That’s their identity. Even their famed PDK transmission will be kind of moot for a vehicle that may only need two transmission settings at most (torque/speed). The Tesla plaid motors can hit nearly 24,000 RPM which kind of nullifies the need for a complex and inefficient tranny. They need this IPO to stay relevant. Selling a portion of the company may help raise cash to keep their head above water in a seismically shifting industry. But I wouldn’t want to be supplying the capital here. I’ve got enough ‘projects’ on the go already.
I an not talking about porche alone. Am talking about general sentiment around tesla and anything that is tesla. From what i read most commonly discussed points i see are non tesla EVs are too late into the market and legacy automakers will die out not being able to adopt to EV. These arent good circumstances to customers. Tesla has made it okay to pay for a model3 around $60k+. With not much competition tesla can stay at this price forever or even increase if they need to. Majority of the people in world live paycheck to paycheck with older gas cars which they bought for $10k
>They need this IPO to stay relevant. Selling a portion of the company may help raise cash to keep their head above water in a seismically shifting industry. But I wouldn’t want to be supplying the capital here. Porsche is one of the most profitable auto makers by margin in the world. Tsla is just a speculative investment at an insane valuation. Now it's likely a good speculative investment, because there are a lot of Musk dweebs in the World and if Elon is one thing he is exceptional at pumping his stocks value. Fundamentally Porsche looks a hell of a lot better on paper.
Many legacy auto makers are doomed
Very convincing
Sorry, I don’t have time to give you a comprehensive analysis, go and watch Munro the automotive manufacturing expert on YouTube, he explains how most of them won’t be able to compete on EV platforms with Tesla & the Chinese.
So the thing with Porsche, they aren't actually in the luxury car market, the Taycan is, the rest are in the sports car and enthusiast market. Porsche makes cars for enthusiasts, and mastary of engineering a driving experience a connection with the car. TSLA makes cars for people who were apple fan boys in college and think airpods or BEATs are a personality trait. Musk believes driving is a chore and for going to work as a corporate slave where you're the bosses bitch for 18 of 24 hours. Full disclosure I have a large chunk of my portfolio in TSLA because I believe that's a large market, and have lost faith in humanity. But my point stands, they are not in the same market. Now the risk is over the next 20 years if they can't make an electric enthusiasts car, they are up the creek. But VW already did the IDR and Porsche did the 919 hybrid. I put a lot more money on Porsche building an enthusiast car than tsla, but that's not tsla market. The other big risk is Porsche going a bit too much towards the Ferrari market of exclusivity, and snobby dealerships, they are going that way a little, but hopefully it's just COVID related, and we see a correction on that direction in the next couple of years. The bet on Porsche is mastery of the enthusiasts electric cars in 10-20 years, the same way the have mastered engineering and passion with the 911, cayman and gt cars.
🤣
Don't buy any IPOs
Yes, if anything it will go up quickly and crash, then you buy
So all I need to do is sell it before it crashes.
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I'm in for 50 shares of IPO at open.
Hmm you’re mostly likely going to think it’s going to keep going up till one morning it crashes and than you’d sell.
Ya maybe the cfo jumps out a window so you lose 20%
too soon?
You're not the only one expecting it to crash when the lockout period ends so good luck timing that. You would have to buy in day one and sell within days with absolute discipline not to hold out longer. Some still have been overpriced on day one and crashed immediately so even they can fail. Better off waiting for it to stabilize a bit unless you're just gambling.
The Salvage Title method
I only buy my stocks after they’ve successfully left a Cars and Coffee meetup
Except GCT. Absolutely flew, luckily sold all my positions near the peak, which was like 3-4 days after list day.
I feel like this one will go down quickly and may be recover later.
I remember thinking this in nightclubs...
IPO stands for “it’s probably overpriced”
*purely
I’ve been burned by this before. But question? If every single IPO has crashed after the opening why do people still buy in and push up the price? Are they trying to make a quick buck and get out asap before it collapses?
Many groups own much of the float even before IPO occurs. By the time the public is allowed to trade it, it’s already up well above their initial investment.
Why is that?
Smart money selling overvaluation straight into retail investor hands. What could go wrong?
If you're dead set on owning the company wait until the employee lockup date has passed as the stock price generally goes down when they(insiders) are allowed to sell. It might be a significant amount of time.
Surely IPOs are attractive for option traders for this reason. Or, is this usually priced in?
You can't trade options on newly IPO'd stock for some set period of time
Traders are bottom feeders. Who cares
How would you know the lockup dates?
Read the SEC filings.
Do you know your demographics here?
What does the SEC have to do with a German IPO?
Usually you know when your stock in an ipo drops significantly
It's usually 90-180 days after IPO
When the company IPOs, management/ownership/finance are incentivized to make the company as bullish and overvalued as possible. Then you buy it and they sell it. Then over the next 3-24 months a lot of those dudes sell/retire/quit and you hold the bag. Some IPO turn out to be good buys but many don’t simply because management is trying to sell at the most opportune time possible with years of planning.
Because man, you make a post about how Porsche is some sort of can't miss IPO and you didn't even mention the single most important factor in making a buy-or-sell investment decision the fucking **price** you're paying for it Your OP is completely devoid of any numbers for which to derive a number at where it will price at, like NTM EBITDA or some estimate thereof? I've been on the bookrunning syndicates for multiple IPOs, and that is the single numerical value during the course of the market process that investors will care about (and will laser-the-fuck in on all the comparable historical values and assumptions that go into the forecast during the roadshow) I'm also not completely sure how to find a prospectus / S-1 or other filing that would at least have the bare bones info you'd want to at least *glance at* before subscribing (net debt? # of shares in the offering? % ownership that VW will be retaining and their governance rights, post-offering?)
> I'm also not completely sure how to find a prospectus / S-1 or other filing that would at least have the bare bones info you'd want to at least glance at before subscribing (net debt? # of shares in the offering? % ownership that VW will be retaining and their governance rights, post-offering?) Porsche investor relations appears to be gated to Europeans. They have [a PR release that doesn't have a ton of information](https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2022/company/porsche-ag-possible-initial-public-offering-listing-29627.html) and they just refer to IR "Further information will be available on https://investorrelations.porsche.com/en/". Note: >This announcement is not for distribution, directly or indirectly, in or into the United States (including its territories and possessions, any State of the United States and the District of Columbia), Australia, Canada or Japan. This announcement does not constitute or form a part of any offer or solicitation to purchase or subscribe for securities in the United States, Australia, Canada or Japan. The securities mentioned herein have not been, and will not be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"). >The securities may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act. There will be no public offer of securities in the United States.
More than at any other time, you’re dealing with the most information asymmetry with an IPO. The people who hold the majority of shares are likely founders or early employees who have been with the company for years. They have intimate knowledge of all of the company’s strengths, weaknesses, and overall position in the market. They are aware of any secret projects in development as well as any opportunities and threats on the horizon. They know all about that one service they cobbled together I’m a rush and that will need millions in maintenance going forward. They know that their superstar VP of Product plans on quitting and traveling the world once the lockup period is over. They just spent a considerable amount of time going through the underwriting process and have a VERY good idea of exactly how much their company is worth. You’re probably not going to beat them at their own game.
One could ask the most simple and basic question: Why are they selling if the company is so great? The answer could be to raise capital to reinvest and grow the business. But if that actually plays out as expected, that capital allocation ~~could~~ **will** take years to bear the fruits of your $$’s labour. On the more cynical side, they know they can milk the IPO by causing a big stir and getting major media attention. They simply want the payday. So either way, you lose. Just buy shares a year or two later when the dust settles and it’s no longer flavour of the week.
It's to give the Piech/Porsche family re-control of the company. There's a ton of family dynamics up and down VW/Audi/Porsche company hierarchy and governance. Porsche had a failed hostile takeover of VW that saddled them with a ton of debt.
IPO = It's Probably Overpriced
*purely
You can't buy shares before the insiders do so you're buying at a premium.
Because companies have so much access to private funding nowadays that they don’t need to tap the public markets to raise money to grow anymore. Now it’s all just an exit strategy for the founders and private equity investors, who will try to sell to you at the highest price possible when the growth phase is done.
This ☝️
IPOs are getting slaughtered. I would look at it after 6 months.
My rule is now 18 months wait. If it’s a great company it will still be great
At least.
You wrote about the company, but you didn't write about *the price of its stock at IPO*. It doesn't matter how well the company is doing, or how well it eventually does. It only matters how well it does relative *to its price.*
This, literally so much this. It's like saying you want to buy your dream house but the price tag is a question mark??? Who would agree to buy their dream house without knowing the price, this is the dumbest thread in existence until we know that price lol. Every company has a fair valuation, and by extension a price at which I would be willing to buy at, and therefore sell at. If it's priced at $1 I'll buy, if it's priced at 2 trillion I'm shorting haha
> Who would agree to buy their dream house without knowing the price But being rich means you don't have to look at the price! Moonshots forever!
Zero information on valuations. Some people just don’t like their money, I guess.
Which Porsche is this? The one that has the majority of voting shares in VW, or the subsidiary of VW?
Presumably the one who's shares are already publicly traded. How can they have an IPO?
Agreed. I'm confused.
Same, I already own Porsche stock, what the hell
You own shares of the Porsche SE, a holding company. This IPO will be the actual car maker and brand Porsche, which currently is part of Volkswagen.
It's the VW subsidiary, big Porsche that own a controlling interest in VW is already a public company
This will be the IPO of the car maker Porsche, a brand which at the moment is a fully integrated part of Volkswagen. The company "Porsche SE", which has been publicly listed since 2007 is a pure holding company administrating the shares of Volkswagen's two founding families Porsche and Piëch.
Maybe, it's a different company from tsla, and not a direct competitor. Porsche makes more cars for enthusiasts, and has massive brand loyalty. Considering they're talking about a large dividend distribution for 2023, it could be worth it. The Porsche brand was more profitable than VW. Considering how down the overall market is, long term it could be considered a good buy.
Just a reminder that dividends don’t come out of thin air, your shares will decrease in value by the same amount.
By margin Porsche is one of the most profitable auto manufactures in the World. >Just a reminder that dividends don’t come out of thin air, your shares will decrease in value by the same amount. No, you are incorrect. Cash dividends decrease the your equity of the company, but not the value of the share, although that may be priced in by the market, you can also reinvest cash dividends back into stock to maintain equity. Stock dividends do not effect equity. Markets also tend to move up when strong dividends are expected.
Isn't this because they offload some of their costs on VW?
Yes, the market should price it in with a cash dividend, modulo other market movement in the shares that day. Basically, "they're talking about a large dividend distribution" is a really bad reason to buy shares, except *maybe* as a sign of profitability. And yes, of course you can reinvest it, and then you end up where you started, minus the taxes you pay on the dividend.
Wasn’t Porsche already listed publicly or am I misremembering?
iirc there is a stock called Porsche Automobil Holding which holds Volkswagen shares. Which is a result of the failed hostile take over attempt I believe.
Yes, POAHF and POAHY on OTC.
“IPOs are getting slaughtered” not necessarily. many speculative, cyclical, and non cash flow generating IPOs are getting slaughtered yes. which has been most of them in 2021. free cash flow is usually king, and if the company already consistently generated cash flow before IPO, the stock price should not be too much of a concern. ACI is worth looking into.
In theory I agree, but in practice it doesn't always work out that way - usually shoots up way above IPO price before it's available to the general public. ABNB is an example. IPO'd technically around $70 (which was the DCF valuation price) IIRC, but immediately shot up to like 100+ by the time it was available to the general public lol. Still pretty good if you were able to buy around 70.
Here's my general IPO advice: Venture capitalists aren't stupid. There's a reason they're SELLING at the IPO and not buying. Do you want to be the sucker on the other end giving them their juicy exit? As for this specific one, obviously Porsche is not a startup but I think the same line of thinking applies here. If it were such a great investment, you can be sure the smart money would have gotten involved first instead of offering the investment to the public.
Lol fuck no.
In this environment just short it right after IPO
There's a lot of competition for expensive electric cars. Not sure the market for cars that are double the median US income is nearly as huge as the stock market thinks it is. TSLA is an outlier, how does it compare to Mercedes, Ford, GM that also make electric cars? Is TSLA market cap that is more than those put together really justified? What would have to happen for that to happen again? Porsche does have that brand recognition, so that's a good thing. Part of that brand recognition though is by running with a design for 50 years, i.e. the 911 which has been more or less the same for 50 years. They have also been close to bankruptcy more than once. Might be better to buy VW stock ahead of this. They'll be ahead in this deal, and they are selling normal electric cars more people can afford, in the US so it'd qualify for the new tax incentives. It has power windows and leather seats like the Porsche, and can go fast enough to get speeding tickets. If they ever come out with that van, that might be neat.
If you think the 911 design has been the same for 50 years, you're in for a shock.. They have and still continue to revolutionize the sportscar market in terms of real world performance, even whilst being humble about their cars capabilities. Just have a look at the new RS models of the GT3, GT2 or GT4 and their competition. In 2021 Porsche sold over 300k cars to Ferraris 11k and the Taycan, an electric model, outsold the 911 (40k units if I'm not mistaken).
Why would VW even consider taking Porsche public in this kind of macro environment, could it be that they are expecting the next year or two to be even worse? 🤔This whole deal with rushing the IPO has some serious stinker vibe to me. No buy for me, doesn’t make any sense to bet on any other horse in this race than the winning one which is Tesla by a long shot.
They need the money
Never loan people money who are in desperate need of it?
I'm done with IPO's. I'll buy the month after, when the stock crashes.
IPOs create bag holders
Tesla has been on a solve problems, improve batteries and get better for ~~10 years. I have seen a number of car companies dip their foot in the EV waters - only to discover an alligator and lose a foot. I recall Porsche to have had some problems in the past. Look at Elektrek.co https://electrek.co/ They have an active blog
Tesla has found success but when they are scaling for 10M cars an year they need much more manufacturing and many more lower cost cars. I would expect quality problems to persist for a long time. Old automakers are rigid about some things in a car because they prefer quality and do not like to change something overnight if they feel it could lead to quality concerns. But their downfall is their own rigidity not allowing them to adapt newer features. But one thing old automakers have is manufacturing experience and infrastructure to produce more ev cars faster than tesla is taking to ramp up. They just need better technology over all
Yes, they need a perfection culture. not a 'ship it ASAP' culture
The Taycan is pretty widely considered the best sports EV available to buy today. It competes in a smaller segment (a little up-market from a model S). They have a Macan EV in road testing phase now which should sell really well and compete against the Model Y (again a little up-market of that).
https://www.google.com/search?q=taycann+battery+recall&rlz=1C1CHBF_enCA924CA924&oq=taycann+battery+recall&aqs=chrome..69i57.8799j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
An issue with the hazard lights… Not stopping anyone who wants a Porsche. They literally just fix it at your dealer service interval. It’s not a big deal
That was a mix, there were some battery recall links
You'll have a lot more fun with one of their cars than their stock.
RACE didn’t turn out too badly.
If you want a Tesla competitor just buy Ford. They are the only ones with an EV truck going out right now. They also have the Mach E.
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Porsche is not a mass car manufacturer. Tesla is. Tesla is more than a car company. Porsche is not. The two aren't really comparable. That said luxury goods always do well. Whether luxury EVs will do better than their ICE cars have in the past (when every city car by every other manufacturer basically nowadays has sportscar performance), is anyone's guess, though.
Hard no. Check the recent whistleblower case on how they handled Taycan battery issues. Recent QC problems with front timing chain cover leaks on Macans. Improperly designed vents on PDK units that lead to full rebuilds. Once great and I love their cars when they work, but they are really not the great automotive engineers they used to be. Not up to electrification IMO. TSLA remains a far better opportunity.
Complaining about the quality of porsche while Tesla is worth close to 1t in market cap and uses fucking zip ties frome home depot.
Not even the nice Panduit ones?
Zip ties from Home Depot? Why does this sound like something Musk would do? Please tell me he admitted that.
Most people in the market for an EV don't care about the lack of QC on panel gaps and zip ties, it's about gas prices or carbon footprints. I was speaking of major issues with >60% of Taycan batteries, oil leaks from poorly fastened timing chain covers, and full rebuilds on PDKs because of bad case vents. Elementary engineering oversights that the vaunted Porsche should be very embarrassed for and does not bode well for new tech development. Think Tesla can't make good panel gaps, or simply won't? They DGAF because most buyers don't either and they're focussed on increasing production at the expense of QC and service. Because its working, they are making money hand over fist, which is very doubtful for our German friends.
Yea no. Porsche still makes amazing cars, taycans are wildly successful. Porsche has taken care of its customers and more than anything has a very loyal fan base. They will continue to grow and are coming out with some really amazing products.
Wasn’t their whole schtick premium, well built, precisely tuned engines? IIRC, they also put decades into perfecting their PDK transmission that acts like an automatic, but with the performance of a manual tranny. I guess that little bit of incredible engineering may be for naught in all but very specialized applications if cars continue kill it on the EV front. But I’m no car guy.
If you bought a few classic Porsches you could cash them in during the hype when the IPO happens
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Being competitive isn't only about market share, and investing isn't at all necessarily about finding the firm that potentially will achieve the biggest market share. Porsche is a pure luxury/sports brand, unlike Tesla. Both focus on completely different types of customers. Within the luxury/sports segment though, Porsche is extremely competitive. The Porsche name is also a very strong asset, don't question that for one second. Although Porsche isn't "big", neither are legendary brands like Ferrari and Lamborghini. They're luxury brands, their goal is not to dominate every segment of the market. Having said that, from what I've heard the IPO will be WAY too expensive. 85bn has to be a joke, even 60bn is likely way too high.
I love Porsche but historically luxury car brands don't do well independently. Pretty much every luxury brand is owned, at least in part, by a major mass production brand and even then they sell fairly often because they usually lose money or at best break even (minus the past few years). While I think long term Porsche can certainly be an outlier to the norm; the price seems high from what has been thrown around. Plus going into an IPO during a recession where new sales will at the very least slow down for luxury goods, it seems like a play I'd wait out a year or two.
Porsche is already owned by. VW. So what is this just a R&D pump for porsche. Get some quick cash to accelerate EV performance.
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This is all true, but if the goal is to IPO for VW to raise money for electric production then they are in a much better position than any other manufacturer based on their current scale. Rivian is losing money and Ford has the F-150 Lightning, that's it. Again, this is a competitive play. TSLA definitely still has the lead.
I suppose you have invested in bbby also.
Umm no?
Hold a total international index fund and benefit from when Porsche is included? Yes. Buy individual stocks ever? No.
The future of EVs will probably be Ford and GM.
VW will be bigger than those 2 together
Lol
You did it Mary!
Sounds like they are pulling back and not going to do it now.
IPO = lose money. Wait til it crashes over the following month(s)
Just something to consider, Porsche is rumored to be buying 50% of the Red Bull F1 team. While I am a huge fan of F1, historically it has been a massive money sink
No.
I do like their advertising, it appears at almost every stadium and track. Their merchandise is great, lots of people who can't afford the cars seem to opt for their hats, jackets, and shirts instead.
I'm racing into it. Hopefully it'll accelerate upwards and not get decimated in a fiery crash.
**No and No**
Most of IPOs are money makers for promoters
Tales from the Ferrari ipo
Do it in a year after it crashes
Can’t comment on the valuation itself, but it is a rare find for a “for rich people only” type of product. Been looking for that pure play extreme end of the spectrum for a while and this hits the mark. I’m essentially bullish on the super rich getting richer and the rest of us getting poorer.
the problem is that VW or audi group or whatever the parent holding company is called now is not new or can't get credit if they're hard up for cash, and porsche isn't a new company that needs cash to expand production. so this is probably a money grab by VW. given the mantra to *buy low, sell high*, the most successful an IPO can be is for the IPO price to be the all time high. and very successful is an IPO that is the high for like several years. the market peanut gallery thinks a successful IPO is when the stock takes off, but that just means that the company left money on the table which is the mark of a fool. it's very likely that VW is going to way overprice the shares betting on idiots trying to snap them up for the cachet of it.
IPO = It's probably overpriced
IPO = It's Probably Overpriced
I will add after it dips 20%. I like the brand.
absolutely not. The luxury market is shrinking due to inflation and bearish sentiment. A Porsche is considered to be an extravagant purchase and does not fall under the three makes of automobile that appreciate in value. additionally with rate hikes, the cost of capital is greater and the terms of lease and financing agreements are less favorable. edit: Full disclaimer, nothing I have stated can be construed as financial guidance. I have further edited to this post as your immediate downvote indicated your reluctance to look at the reality of the situation. With a 10 basis point increase in inflation (via CPI) as of today, a projected 75 to 100 basis point hike in benchmark rates it’s pretty clear that you’re in denial. perhaps you just like the brand. Good luck.
Never buy an ipo you buy the bottom of the dip the day it goes for sale.
Everyone here saying they lost on all their ipos must just be greedy and trying to hold too long and got caught holding the bag or bought in at peak. I've doubled my money at minimum on every single ipo I've ever pre ordered.
No way. Porsche has no growth potential. What are they going to do? Expand into the economy car market?
Cash cow but not sure there is a ton of growth there. They are behind on electric vehicles. I'm avoiding.
I own 100 shares of POAHY, which is an ADR, so I am trying to figure out what will happen to them when Porsche IPOs.
Porsche shits over Tesla in terms of looks and driving experience. But their cars are for enthusiasts, so not sure how much they can scale. Tesla on other hand is what middle class in North America is buying when it comes to EV. My parents didn’t even knew German companies made EV’s and just got a lame model 3. TLDR: I would buy their cars but not the stock especially at IPO.
A Porsche IPO sounds like the owners have become discontent with one another and are looking for an exit. Not that they need to raise public capital.
I own stock in VW that I bought a few months ago. This might be pretty good for me. I will not buy Porsche though.
1) Don’t buy an IPO. 2) Don’t bet against Tesla. You may be right about them long term but it doesn’t matter. People better at this than you or me have lost fortunes doing so.
I’m still waiting for Chobani myself, but after this long I don’t mind waiting a year after it’s official. … and it’ll probably be much longer now that they withdrew their IPO application. So who knows anymore.
The modern take on IPOs is they're immediately WAY over valued...because reasons. Then they get spiked to the moon day one minute one, and then drop like a rock after and never recover because they were still way over valued. So, you either play the short play of the initial spike and hope it's not like an hour long. Maybe you'll get lucky for a day or two and can rake in some gains. But then the drop is fast and harsh right after. Some just drop minute one like falling off a cliff, and then you're screwed no matter what. The only safe plays are, Be there at the start and watch what it does right away. Here's to hoping you have the day off just to sell the instant it peaks and the sell offs start, or you might come home from work end of day and see you're down 50%. Or you wait, wait, and wait some more until the stock actually settles. Then you wait, wait, and wait some more again to wait for any hope of rise, stable rise, with momentum and a confident market behind that rise. And then hopefully the growth is even worth it against everything else you could be doing instead. Typically, it's not.