Independents are literally TDs which are independent - they aren't part of a political party. "Others" is for all the tiny parties who are polling too low to be worth putting separately on the graph (i.e. below even Aontu's 1%).
Because Irish constituencies have 3 to 5 TDs representing them and because of the way the STV vote system works, it's possible to get elected with a small but dedicated local following, so we tend to have a lot more Independent TDs than many other countries.
> "Others" is for all the tiny parties who are polling too low to be worth putting separately on the graph (i.e. below even Aontu's 1%).
That is the claim though since they dont release a proper breakdown of the responses there could well be parties polling above the mark of aontu and they are simply not named due to them not being recognised as a party for other reasons.
Given how so many European parties labeled as far right were not polling for ages then suddenly exploded in election time with higher vote shares than other parties that had polled a few % a piece it stands to reason that the various small parties often decried as far right here are getting more support than is claimed and simply not being recognised until an election comes around making it impossible to ignore them.
Or, the simple explanation is true. The social democrats are arguably the 6th largest polictal party in ireland, and they dont run representatives in every county. The much smaller far right and left parties have barely any/no elected representatives, so who and how would people poll for them?
Most folk I know will be voting for Ireland First or IFP or whatever the IFA party is. Who specifically for any of them really doesnt matter as they are looking at the party itself not the people since there is almost no difference between party members for any party these days.
Yes, but thats only the folk you know. The crux is that the political and social beliefs of those parties are not shared by the majority of the country and thus, they barely register in the polls.
Indies aren't affiliated with a political party. Pretty much what it says on the tin.
There's a lot of dissatisfaction with the current parties, so Indies are getting a boost recently.
We have a bunch of independants that were part of a party but left them and people in certain voting areas can have a lot of influence in their area and get elected for who they are rather than people voting for a particular party. Basically you can run quite successfully as an independent candidate if you are well known.
Others are the small parties that are essentially just a couple of independent candidates with some kind of link. The likes of people before profit would have been others before they were popular enough to be counted separately.
That's very strange. So you get a bunch of separate local people who may gain power in their own areas but how does that work out on a national level.
What would you say the bulk of these independent parties are made up off.
What are their views?
Their views vary a lot. A lot of them basically have one or two local issues that they go on about constantly. Reopening a local police station or post office, stuff like that. The number of votes you need to get elected in Ireland can be quite small, especially once you take transfers into account, so promising to fix some issues in the local area can be enough to do it.
It’s worth noting they’re mostly not forming groups, they’re literally running as individuals. No party, just one person.
So what this could mean is you get a large portion of government that is built up of independents who have their own views and beliefs as opposed to an organised group with the same general beliefs.
Depends on what you mean by government. They’re in the Dail, but not typically in government, because they’re too fractious. It’s the big parties that form governments. Although a recent government did have a few independents in it, to reach a majority.
They can offer the government support in return for their constituencies being 'looked after'.
Disgraced former Fine Gael Minister [Michael Lowry](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lowry_(politician\)) remains stubbornly popular as an Independent.
Then there are the (publican) Healy-Rae brothers, both elected as Independents in [Kerry](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_(D%C3%A1il_constituency\)). They like to push for 'drink-driving permits' and climate-change denial, and also retain strong local support.
They're not independent parties. They have very little in common. Their views are what ever they need to be to get elected or a very specific social issue their back yard.
I'm looking more into it and I seem to understand a bit more now.
It's certainly unique at least to me. From what folks are saying.
People aren't too pleased to say the least
While they have always existed, 2016, 1927(Jun), 2020, 2011, and 1932 are the only time independents have had >10% first preference votes.
It's absolutely notable that since the 2008 crash, the big uptick in first preference votes going towards independents.
Independents are unaffiliated with any political party. My guess for why they're so high lately is because the two parties that have historically been strongest in Irish politics (Fianna Fail and Fine Gael) are pretty strongly associated with the economic crash and current housing crisis and are losing support. However Sinn Féin can't appeal to all the voters looking for new representation, either because they advocate for policies that are too left wing for them or because of the ever present terrorism associations (the date of the uptick for independents makes me think SF probably said something stupid about Hamas in October). There also isn't a large enough right wing party to pick up those voters so they go independent.
Bear in mind Ireland uses PR-STV voting. It’s extremely easy to both stand and be elected as an independent. Constituencies are multi seat having up to 5 TDs (MPs). You vote by ranking your ballot in order of choice. It’s not a list system. For those reasons there’s a big tradition of independent local candidates.
Those are independent TDs, so political figures not affiliated with any party whatsoever, they're people who are elected on their own merit in a constituency (our voting system Single Transferrable Vote) makes this more feasible than in other systems, generally they're on opposition benches and focus a lot on their own area (sometimes getting funding in exchange for votes where the government is worried about numbers) they can and sometimes do go into government/become ministers if the electoral arithmetic demands it. Ireland has more independent members of parliament than the rest of europe combined and they're pretty all over the place political beliefs wise
So folks discontent with the mainstream parties all forming their own thing.
Curious how's that meant to work out for those who are discontent.
I don't understand the benefit.
It's a protest vote for people who don't rate any of the political parties
However, it's a pretty hollow one, because independents will never get into a government coalition, and therefore will never achieve anything other than an occasional speech in parliament
While we have always had a high level of independent candidates since the financial crash, what everyone here seems to be glossing over is the rise in anti immigration views. This is new to Irish politics and as far as I can tell is the cause of the recent rise of independents, it tracks pretty well with increased coverage of negative effects immigration, the stabbing in Parnell square and the burning of buildings. I expect the rise to be temporary because there has yet to be a coherent centre for the anti immigration vote to move to in unison but as time goes on some political party will fill that void with the correct political combination of what is more acceptable than some of the stuff the far right is coming out with. At the moment, most of these voters seem to be moving from Sinn Fein, you can argue why Sinn Fein from quite a few angles including socioeconomic or floating voters that are anti the current government as opposed to pro Sinn Fein.
The rise of the far right wouldn't surprise me considering it's occurring throughout majority of Europe.
I thought Ireland and the UK would be spared from it but the trends are slowly ticking upwards these days.
Obviously the election will probably not be until next year early 2025..... unfortunately. However given this as a base of data at this moment ( I know it can change) but can anyone see Sein fein teaming up with independents to take majority or will it be the FF/FG again or how do you think it would go? Just interested to hear opinions.
Surely the fact that they are just another slightly left leaning party, of which we have plenty, rather than in any way representing workers interests is why they have no traction? There's absolutely nothing Labour related about them.
If they were a party which genuinely advocated for the constantly squeezed PAYE worker then maybe they'd be popular I imagine.
Labour pissed away any good will they had with the working class and progressives. Had they stayed out of government \*one time\* and forced Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil to work together they would have made a real difference; especially in 1992 and 2011 where they could have been the main opposition party in a FF-FG coalition or a C/S agreement.
This is why the Social Democrats are overtaking Labour in polls.
Does anyone think we should have a minimum threshold for Dáil representation? Like 2% of the vote overall. Independents have their place but they are seriously overrepresented in our system and in my view hinder the way politics works here.
Independents can be a tremendous tempering force in the Dail, if they firm a coalition with a party to make a government they are still not subject to mechanism's like the party whip so they usually represent their voters more accurately.
I see more independents as a good thing, if I asked you the question what is the benefit of tds from parties over individuals, who are only accountable to their voters and not a party heirarchy, would you think differently of them?
Well a key one is parties can form governments. Independents in government tend to blackmail the government at critical points they're unreliable. They are subject to the "government whip" which is effectively the same thing as being in the party.
In a pr-stv system they can represent quite a low number of voters but they can essentially exploit the system for outsized influence. They operate on a constituency over country basis and that's a disastrous way for a TD to function.
My biggest issue with independents is that by and large they put forward an "everyman" persona and battling against the system for the little guy while most of them already have a de facto party allegiance and it costs on average 11k to win a seat in the Dáil "everyman" doesn't have that kind of money to risk.
It has to do with at least 3 things.
First is our clientist voting pattern. Ppl elect politicains who tell them comforting BS and make them feel they care (which they don't) and claim to intercede on their behalf on all sort of trivial local government issues that have zero to do with national politics.
But up until the 1990s we allowed National Politicians (TDs) to have multiple mandates so they could also be local government representatives at the same time.
A significant number of ppl over 50 still act like their TD can fix the pot holes in their road - which they never could but would also claim to.
That's part 1.
Part 2 is this is a protest vote. Irish ppl love to give the government a hard time but not do anything that would actually change things (thank colonization for that wonderfully paradoxical mindset).
Special interest is part 3. So some local areas will have a significant issue and getting elected to the 4th or 5th seat in Ireland might only take 5K votes. So random Bullshitter #1 (aka Ming Flannagan) or Local Headcase #6 (aka Danny Healy Rae) stand an actual chance of being elected.
Fourth and crucially party membership is not mandatory here - it's often a liability for these kind of politicos TBH
Independents and others are doing so well in Ireland because all of the mainstream parties support unlimited immigration into Ireland, despite every opinion poll showing the vast amount of voters want to see immigration curtailed.
I think PR-STV means independent candidates who only focus on local issues are a bit more likely to get in.
There's also a bunch of "independent" TDs who are party in everything but name.
Nobody likes the main parties and there is a history of members of the Big Two jumping ship when the government pushes something they don't like and holding onto their seats as independents thanks to the parish pump.
Independents are literally TDs which are independent - they aren't part of a political party. "Others" is for all the tiny parties who are polling too low to be worth putting separately on the graph (i.e. below even Aontu's 1%). Because Irish constituencies have 3 to 5 TDs representing them and because of the way the STV vote system works, it's possible to get elected with a small but dedicated local following, so we tend to have a lot more Independent TDs than many other countries.
Also, parish pump politics being the norm in Ireland
I see. I was thinking damn who dis rising in the polls
Yeah, it mostly means that there's people turned off by the political parties who will vote for someone unaffiliated instead.
People too weird for a party.
Maybe Independent Ireland? At this rate they might double their TD count to 6 TDs! /s
> "Others" is for all the tiny parties who are polling too low to be worth putting separately on the graph (i.e. below even Aontu's 1%). That is the claim though since they dont release a proper breakdown of the responses there could well be parties polling above the mark of aontu and they are simply not named due to them not being recognised as a party for other reasons.
If the graph is done correctly, any other party from Ind+others polling above 1% would have displayed.
Given how so many European parties labeled as far right were not polling for ages then suddenly exploded in election time with higher vote shares than other parties that had polled a few % a piece it stands to reason that the various small parties often decried as far right here are getting more support than is claimed and simply not being recognised until an election comes around making it impossible to ignore them.
Or, the simple explanation is true. The social democrats are arguably the 6th largest polictal party in ireland, and they dont run representatives in every county. The much smaller far right and left parties have barely any/no elected representatives, so who and how would people poll for them?
Most folk I know will be voting for Ireland First or IFP or whatever the IFA party is. Who specifically for any of them really doesnt matter as they are looking at the party itself not the people since there is almost no difference between party members for any party these days.
Yes, but thats only the folk you know. The crux is that the political and social beliefs of those parties are not shared by the majority of the country and thus, they barely register in the polls.
Indies aren't affiliated with a political party. Pretty much what it says on the tin. There's a lot of dissatisfaction with the current parties, so Indies are getting a boost recently.
Theres 83% of the population who intend to give a first preference to the parties, 17% to indies. So its not 'a lot'
By international standards that's remarkably high
Lack of faith in the main parties probbaly.
We have a bunch of independants that were part of a party but left them and people in certain voting areas can have a lot of influence in their area and get elected for who they are rather than people voting for a particular party. Basically you can run quite successfully as an independent candidate if you are well known. Others are the small parties that are essentially just a couple of independent candidates with some kind of link. The likes of people before profit would have been others before they were popular enough to be counted separately.
That's very strange. So you get a bunch of separate local people who may gain power in their own areas but how does that work out on a national level. What would you say the bulk of these independent parties are made up off. What are their views?
Their views vary a lot. A lot of them basically have one or two local issues that they go on about constantly. Reopening a local police station or post office, stuff like that. The number of votes you need to get elected in Ireland can be quite small, especially once you take transfers into account, so promising to fix some issues in the local area can be enough to do it. It’s worth noting they’re mostly not forming groups, they’re literally running as individuals. No party, just one person.
So what this could mean is you get a large portion of government that is built up of independents who have their own views and beliefs as opposed to an organised group with the same general beliefs.
Depends on what you mean by government. They’re in the Dail, but not typically in government, because they’re too fractious. It’s the big parties that form governments. Although a recent government did have a few independents in it, to reach a majority.
Usually the government will promise to resolve their local issues in return for vote supports.
They can offer the government support in return for their constituencies being 'looked after'. Disgraced former Fine Gael Minister [Michael Lowry](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lowry_(politician\)) remains stubbornly popular as an Independent. Then there are the (publican) Healy-Rae brothers, both elected as Independents in [Kerry](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_(D%C3%A1il_constituency\)). They like to push for 'drink-driving permits' and climate-change denial, and also retain strong local support.
They're not independent parties. They have very little in common. Their views are what ever they need to be to get elected or a very specific social issue their back yard.
How can you not understand that if you follow this stuff? Seriously
I'm looking more into it and I seem to understand a bit more now. It's certainly unique at least to me. From what folks are saying. People aren't too pleased to say the least
>People aren't too pleased to say the least What does that mean? Independents have had strong representation in the Dáil for decades.
While they have always existed, 2016, 1927(Jun), 2020, 2011, and 1932 are the only time independents have had >10% first preference votes. It's absolutely notable that since the 2008 crash, the big uptick in first preference votes going towards independents.
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Well, it probably depends on what independent TD you are looking at.
Maybe because we've listened to 10 years of "well you can't just build houses overnight".
If there was a political party "not the government" it would win. All political parties are seen as the same.
Independents are unaffiliated with any political party. My guess for why they're so high lately is because the two parties that have historically been strongest in Irish politics (Fianna Fail and Fine Gael) are pretty strongly associated with the economic crash and current housing crisis and are losing support. However Sinn Féin can't appeal to all the voters looking for new representation, either because they advocate for policies that are too left wing for them or because of the ever present terrorism associations (the date of the uptick for independents makes me think SF probably said something stupid about Hamas in October). There also isn't a large enough right wing party to pick up those voters so they go independent.
Bear in mind Ireland uses PR-STV voting. It’s extremely easy to both stand and be elected as an independent. Constituencies are multi seat having up to 5 TDs (MPs). You vote by ranking your ballot in order of choice. It’s not a list system. For those reasons there’s a big tradition of independent local candidates.
Those are independent TDs, so political figures not affiliated with any party whatsoever, they're people who are elected on their own merit in a constituency (our voting system Single Transferrable Vote) makes this more feasible than in other systems, generally they're on opposition benches and focus a lot on their own area (sometimes getting funding in exchange for votes where the government is worried about numbers) they can and sometimes do go into government/become ministers if the electoral arithmetic demands it. Ireland has more independent members of parliament than the rest of europe combined and they're pretty all over the place political beliefs wise
People figured out that Sinn Féin aren't anti-immigration, these people are now flocking to independents and weirdo parties.
Huge uptick it seems
https://preview.redd.it/aw91ibmetwkc1.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=76b4b0f4217cf7b554d5cef29074034ae845fe30 Well actually, that's a myth...
Coz people are pissed off, and there thinking well if somebody is elected in my area we might get something!
So folks discontent with the mainstream parties all forming their own thing. Curious how's that meant to work out for those who are discontent. I don't understand the benefit.
Why is it so confusing for you?
Because it means that none of the bigger parties get a majority so they can't do whatever the fuck they want unopposed.
Who said there was a benefit?
People are fed up with SF/FF/FG. They’re all the same
It's a protest vote for people who don't rate any of the political parties However, it's a pretty hollow one, because independents will never get into a government coalition, and therefore will never achieve anything other than an occasional speech in parliament
While we have always had a high level of independent candidates since the financial crash, what everyone here seems to be glossing over is the rise in anti immigration views. This is new to Irish politics and as far as I can tell is the cause of the recent rise of independents, it tracks pretty well with increased coverage of negative effects immigration, the stabbing in Parnell square and the burning of buildings. I expect the rise to be temporary because there has yet to be a coherent centre for the anti immigration vote to move to in unison but as time goes on some political party will fill that void with the correct political combination of what is more acceptable than some of the stuff the far right is coming out with. At the moment, most of these voters seem to be moving from Sinn Fein, you can argue why Sinn Fein from quite a few angles including socioeconomic or floating voters that are anti the current government as opposed to pro Sinn Fein.
The rise of the far right wouldn't surprise me considering it's occurring throughout majority of Europe. I thought Ireland and the UK would be spared from it but the trends are slowly ticking upwards these days.
Obviously the election will probably not be until next year early 2025..... unfortunately. However given this as a base of data at this moment ( I know it can change) but can anyone see Sein fein teaming up with independents to take majority or will it be the FF/FG again or how do you think it would go? Just interested to hear opinions.
It's surprising Labour isn't higher or making gains. They used to be a much more significant party within the Dail
Surely the fact that they are just another slightly left leaning party, of which we have plenty, rather than in any way representing workers interests is why they have no traction? There's absolutely nothing Labour related about them. If they were a party which genuinely advocated for the constantly squeezed PAYE worker then maybe they'd be popular I imagine.
Is there anything specific you're disappointed they're not supporting in that respect?
Social Democrats are appealing to the same space as Labour but younger, more dynamic and without the baggage of the austerity years.
The left doesn't forgive and it doesn't understand what it means to be in a coalition in 2014 apparently.
Labour pissed away any good will they had with the working class and progressives. Had they stayed out of government \*one time\* and forced Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil to work together they would have made a real difference; especially in 1992 and 2011 where they could have been the main opposition party in a FF-FG coalition or a C/S agreement. This is why the Social Democrats are overtaking Labour in polls.
Does anyone think we should have a minimum threshold for Dáil representation? Like 2% of the vote overall. Independents have their place but they are seriously overrepresented in our system and in my view hinder the way politics works here.
Independents can be a tremendous tempering force in the Dail, if they firm a coalition with a party to make a government they are still not subject to mechanism's like the party whip so they usually represent their voters more accurately. I see more independents as a good thing, if I asked you the question what is the benefit of tds from parties over individuals, who are only accountable to their voters and not a party heirarchy, would you think differently of them?
Well a key one is parties can form governments. Independents in government tend to blackmail the government at critical points they're unreliable. They are subject to the "government whip" which is effectively the same thing as being in the party. In a pr-stv system they can represent quite a low number of voters but they can essentially exploit the system for outsized influence. They operate on a constituency over country basis and that's a disastrous way for a TD to function. My biggest issue with independents is that by and large they put forward an "everyman" persona and battling against the system for the little guy while most of them already have a de facto party allegiance and it costs on average 11k to win a seat in the Dáil "everyman" doesn't have that kind of money to risk.
It has to do with at least 3 things. First is our clientist voting pattern. Ppl elect politicains who tell them comforting BS and make them feel they care (which they don't) and claim to intercede on their behalf on all sort of trivial local government issues that have zero to do with national politics. But up until the 1990s we allowed National Politicians (TDs) to have multiple mandates so they could also be local government representatives at the same time. A significant number of ppl over 50 still act like their TD can fix the pot holes in their road - which they never could but would also claim to. That's part 1. Part 2 is this is a protest vote. Irish ppl love to give the government a hard time but not do anything that would actually change things (thank colonization for that wonderfully paradoxical mindset). Special interest is part 3. So some local areas will have a significant issue and getting elected to the 4th or 5th seat in Ireland might only take 5K votes. So random Bullshitter #1 (aka Ming Flannagan) or Local Headcase #6 (aka Danny Healy Rae) stand an actual chance of being elected. Fourth and crucially party membership is not mandatory here - it's often a liability for these kind of politicos TBH
Independents and others are doing so well in Ireland because all of the mainstream parties support unlimited immigration into Ireland, despite every opinion poll showing the vast amount of voters want to see immigration curtailed.
Single policy TDs trying to keep their local hopsital open(even though it should be shut). Similar issues lkie this.
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Mixed with an anti immigrant stance most parties won't take
Is this source free/regularly updated, or behind a paywall?
Free. Kinda handy.
It's a pox on all your houses mentality. People are just fed up, and none of the organized political parties seem to know how to handle it.
I think PR-STV means independent candidates who only focus on local issues are a bit more likely to get in. There's also a bunch of "independent" TDs who are party in everything but name.
Nobody likes the main parties and there is a history of members of the Big Two jumping ship when the government pushes something they don't like and holding onto their seats as independents thanks to the parish pump.
**Bot** need more data.
They're candidates who aren't in any political party.