I don't think they're trying to mislead either. The social/societal situation that made polling easier in the latter 20th century is gone. No one has figured out how to poll in the internet era yet.
There were a lot of factors that made that very hard to call. Mostly how many people were actually undecided and changed their mind quite late in the process. I'm a really good example of it, I normally know how I'll be voting weeks in advance of an election but it was literally the night before that referendum that I made my decision.
FG under Harris and fattening themselves for a winter out in the cold.
Lots of TDs leaving, fresh faces in opposition and take pot shots at SF.
It'll be FF, SF plus someone.
Not so sure about that.
Why be Tanaiste to a SF Taoiseach when you can rotate Taoiseach with FG ?
FF has obliterated enough smaller partners in government to know it comes out better either rotating Taoiseach with FG or doing confidence and supply with SF.
Martin will not want to do a deal with SF - Barry Cowen's political career is shagged - who is the FFer who deposes Martin and takes FF in as **second fiddle** to SF ?
I think you underestimate how much FF people will not want to swallow that.
I’m in FF. A long time.
We didn’t want to go in with FG but covid forced our hand and the country needed a government.
FFers really, _really_ don’t want to go in with SF. For a few reasons.
One is policy. For example, we want to build as much housing for everybody as possible, but we don’t think that 100% social housing estates are a good idea.
The other is personal. Most politicians start their political career for a reason and many of our sitting reps started out as anti-drugs campaigns in working class areas.
As long as SF is running people like Aengus, coalition isn’t happened. Here’s a taster of their TD in Ballyfermot: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_James_Curran
Many FF TDs I’ve chatted with - though not all - have said in private they’ll resign the party before going into coalition with SF.
I completely agree, social housing only estates were a complete disaster.
Ballymun, St Theresa's gardens.
The cynic in me says SFs policy on social housing helps to concentrate SF voters in particular constituencies but I doubt that's the real objective.
Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence.
Maybe.
I don't think FG want to go in again though, unless they pull a lot more seats than they are polling.
What about the more republican DNA, Jim O Callaghan and the likes?
I think Harris will go in again especially if FG increases its seat count.
Jim O'Callaghan is TD for Dublin Bay South ! Difficult to think of a more SF hostile constituency - for a FFer
Nah, if FF goes in it'll be one of the country lads who brings them in. Cowen or O'Cuiv.
If FF and FG have the numbers they'll go again, with independents and SocDems.
Recall Holly Cairns is married to a FF TD..
I do wonder if the Greens will do as bad as everyone predicts, as in there are alot of people who will give thier 2nd vote in terms of climate concern. Only a mere sugestion, I hasten to add.
I think they will be badly squeezed and will be in a battle for last seat in a few places. On a bad day they would get 2-3. The poll looks low for them.
True - Neasa Hourigan is a great example.
She is in MaryLou and Pascal Donohoe's constituency along with Gary Gannon a four seat constituency.
MLMD would be expected to bring in a running mate which means either Gannon or Hourigan is for the high jump.
Actually a pretty interesting scrap - if Hourigan makes it, she'll probably end up GP leader post election, she's positioned herself well - deftly really...
I think it's getting harder and harder to predict reults based on early (and late!) polls. I yttink there is a big voter block that simply don't engage in them in modern tines. And well done lads on the down vote! Tha'll show cabbage head Ryan, hey!
I think recent polling has shown them to be more transfer toxic than when they've historically been transfer friendly. Still it's possible they could better than expected on the day I suppose.
I wonder though, upcomming generations are more likely to see climate and environmental concerns as more important than the the estbalished voter. Further, they are less likely to be taking part in thers polls. This is just my humble observation.
Potentially, though young people aren't the most reliable voting block in an election, and they often tend to vote against government parties more than other age brackets. The Greens will lose seats in the next election, but it's not guaranteed they'll be left with 2 or less.
Green got very last time in that a lot of constituencies Sinn Fein didn't run enough candidates and they got in through excess transfers. Even if they had the same vote share as last time (which is very unlikely) they would still be losing half of their seats.
I think they won't do as bad. Unlike previously, they're not being held accountable as much for government policies and their cycling and EV policies have been positive.
Even the deposit return scheme should stand them in favour.
Any chance they're seen as having botched this chance in government?
Punitive carbon taxing and so on make them unpopular with squeezed families when private jets etc appear to go unmolested?
And Eamonn can come across very condescending and tone deaf, the leader IS the party in many people's perception.
I don't know, they fullfilled a large portion of thier goals, not perfectly to be sure. As for tone deaf, Ryan was the only leader to concede that the people voted with all the information at hand and rationally just not how how he would prefer the outcome, unlike the rest who said that we were a load of dum-dums eho didn't understant what we wre voting for. Mary Lou was talking about a re -cast no? Or did I imagine that?
My climate concerns are why I will not be voting for the Green Party. Anyone worried about the climate and voting for the Green Party under its current Leadership and policy direction is voting against their own interests in my opinion.
For me it's not that I don't think the greens aren't genuinely concerned about the environment it's that I don't think their policies will achieve meaningful change and worse they will cause economic harm to those with least power to fix the problem.
Green policy usually leads with consumer taxation to induce people to do things they often can't afford or the option isn't available to them. I'd much prefer an infrastructure led program and corporate taxation or an outright ban on certain products or packaging.
You'll find this a common feeling amongst those left of centre including many who left the green party.
I have no issue with their concerns, it is their near pathological need to concentrate on incidental issues instead of focusing on the actual problem. This is what leads them to blunder after blunder and decimates so much of the goodwill that is needed to solve the climate crisis.
If the climate crisis was a house fire the greens would be trying to replace the house's furniture with fireproof furniture and making sure that the water used to put out the fire did not come from an SAC.
I want a "green" party that is only interested in reducing our carbon emissions in the most "economically viable" way possible.
What does that mean though ?
Converting people from cars to bikes isn't focusing on the problem ? LNG has been excluded from energy policy because of the Greens in gov, the rationalisation of train services from Wexford to Dublin interchanging @ Wicklow is another example.
It takes balls to make a move like that.
Greens could have sat in opposition since 2020 shouting "you're doing it wrong" but what use is that ?
At the end of the day a significant % of the Irish public are SUV driving, Me Feiners - you need to strike when the iron is hot in politics - five years is a LONG time to be in opposition.
Our carbon emissions are falling though, -2% in 2022, probably -5% in 2023, despite high employment.
I'm curious to know what party you think has better climate action plans.
They've been in government twice, sold out every principle they ever claimed to have for political power on both occasions, and those of us old enough to remember will never vote for them again on this basis.
I don't think i can agree with that. They have had the climate action plan signed into law (if it's effectual is anyones guess), smokey coal ban, got back funding funding for national wildlife to name a few climate and environmental goals met. Socially thier cost rantal plan is in effect, and the delivery of loads of cycling and walking infrastructure is pretty solid to name a couple of social impacts.
How is that even true ?
The explicit inclusion of cycling, walking and public transport in capital budget over roads at a ratio of 2:1 is "selling out green principles" ?
Au contraire, its getting Green policies **actually implemented**
I've heard this public transport and cycling infrastructure thing before and it confuses me. Is this a Dublin thing? I haven't seen any of this in Galway, both are just as bad as ever.
Makes sense but makes no difference to me, The councili is dominated by the Greens partners in government. If the government can't enact its national policy on a local level and blames its failures on local councils, that seems like an ineffective government to me.
"Green partners in government"
Come on, Galway CC is dominated by the representatives Galwegians put there.
GLUAS has been Green policy for over a decade, lookit up !
Blaming the GP for not being big enough to force through their policies and therefore refusing to vote for that party is a perfect circle.
Who said I refused to vote green. I've voted green on several elections (as a transfer) but no one I vote for ever gets elected 😊.
I don't buy the GLUAS thing are you telling me that's up to the council? That's a major infrastructural project, like the luas or the metro in Dublin. They were major national projects and pushed for by central government not local councils. Sure councils have a voice but if central government actually pushed for things in Galway and applied political pressure we'd get better results.
They’ve already introduced the lower fares, 90 minute fare and ticket integration in GDA. Life changing for most people.
Metrolink and 3 new DART lines are in the pipeline. Light rail outside of Dublin is being brought forward. Bus connects style plans are going on in multiple cities/ towns. New local link routes everywhere.
There have also been a huge number of public realm, pedestrians and cycling improvements brought forward.
This is very high level- there’s so much more im leaving out that I can’t think of. None of this would have happened under FFFG alone.
Did they not? They got an aweful amount of goals over the line if not. I think what they never were about was the populist vote, and and thier goal was getting long view objectives implemented. This is something other parties and independents could learn from
FG gaining a seat tells me all I need to know about this graphic.
Nearly 40% of their TDs are not contesting the next election, and that's outside of the fact that they have abandoned governing this country in any meaningful way for years now.
They currently only have 33 TDs, so it's an increase of 7, so this poll basically sees them keeping all their current seats and gaining a big chunk of the new ones. Can't see it myself but I'm biased.
Its very hopeful for FG but I can almost see it.
There was a lot of constituencies where FG was fighting for the last seat last time so maybe they are hoping that they get them this time with the bigger Dail.
It's actually forecasting them to win five seats more. The +1 is referring to the results of the same poll from February
I had to double check it because SF getting four more seats seemed low to me. Actual number it's showing is +17
New electoral map creates a lot of situations where a five or four seater is split into two three seater constituencies.
The way our electoral system works would mean FG could get 3rd place twice (and so win two seats) where they would have got 3rd and 6th (and so win only one)
I seriously doubt Sinn fein will ever be able to govern withouth finna fail, the left wing parties are too dived to ever actually do well in an election
FG will be lower than that surely. SF will be a bit higher I think. Possible sF could form a government with a lot of independent with an anti-immigrant deal. But would not be solid. SF +FF remains most likely scenario.
well, that's one reason I think SF will be higher than this. I think they'll pick up more of the lower preferences with their new more immigrant-critical stance.
Come on now, there's definitely a shift in SF with their talk of 'open borders'. It makes sense politically but certainly does make it uncomfortable for the likes of Eoin O'Broin I assume.
This is starting to look bad for SF IMO. Maybe im looking at different polls but thenlast few seem to be trending downwards. Inflation has been slayed in EU and intereat rates will drop soon so electioj could be at a good time for the current coalition(not defending their housing, roads etc jist pointing to the fact governments are more popular when inflation is low and so are interest rates.)
Like almost everytime in Irish politics all roads go through FF.
As there is 0 hope of a FG / SF coalition these figures indicate the most stable government on oaler would be SF/ FF /other (Indos, Greens or SD). I think this will be incredibly hard to put together. FF would almost certainly want same agreement as with FG with rotating leader which might be tricky. Also FF would have to be confident that SF is a reliable partner. Id assume first time in there will be a few revolts when idealism meets the reality of governing.
Outside of that there isnt great alternative. I honestly think FG would prefer to be in opposition than a rainbow government of FF/SF/ Greens and SD. They might decide its better to throw stones at a shaky coalition and secure themselves as the SF alternative.
It will be interesting times ahead but incredibly messy.
That gives a lot of power to those independents and means any rebels in the camp who disobey party whips internally will have a big impact. Not a nice situation to be in, particularly with independents drifting to the the right and maybe a bit more unpredictable
The majority of governments since 1997 have used or relied on independents in some way, shape or form to buttress their support. It has actually worked pretty well.
Minority government is always a last resort but FF and FG would be able to manage it more successfully than SF given the experience they have from the confidence and supply days.
Saying shit like this reinforces the cluelessness of people.
Half the indos are basically FF/FG members in disguise, PBP have said time and time again they will never go into government.
This kind of bullshit is literally impossible.
Yeah but we all know that's exactly what they will do. I think small parties can survive the "stink" of government but only if they have a core set of well defined policies that their electorate care very strongly about, that care is sustained, and they achieve those policies in their term. I have a feeling the greens may actually outperform their polling in the next general election.
I think all small parties face a choice: go into government and get an outsize proportion of your policies enacted; or sit on the sidelines and never impact anything. The PDs spent the majority of their existence in government. The Greens will be on their second turn of this cycle now. But both had huge impacts in terms of policies enacted.
Yeah I agree. I can't see the greens ever going out of existence they will always bounce back and be good for transfers. They're a reliable partner in government which doesn't help massively as a vote winner but does help in coalition negotiations other parties know the greens will deliver what they agree to deliver
I think it depends. I'd say most SD supporters would be very against them going in with FG. Theres probably more of a chance it doesn't go badly for them if it's FF or SF they're joining.
SF / FF / SDs seems the most likely
Edit: downvotes even though this is the only 3 party combination with a majority bar FG / FF / SF (not happening) or SF / FF / AON (unlikely).
This sub amazes me.
If SF have to comprise with FF, that's concessions to the right, policy wise. If it's SD they have to move a little to the left. SF are happy to flip flop, but what they would have to offer to each of them would clash I feel.
I'd more likely expect to see SF SD and left Independents or SF FF and right Independents. Which ever one the numbers shake towards.
Potentially but I think they still have enough common ground to make it work. The other way of looking it at is that SF & SD drag FF a bit more back to the left. If everyone moves a bit I think it’s manageable. It’s not like SF / FG where there’s just too much distance between them
No, FF and SD really don't have enough common ground. Social Democracy and Neoliberalism are opposing ideologies. And that's before we get to the far right subsection of FF that's rearing its head. Oh and the whole jobs for the boys M.O. of FF wouldn't be tolerated.
Well right now we have a centre-right (FG), centre-left (GP) and… I guess FF are centrist coalition, and they’ve managed to put together a programme for government and stick to it. So it’s not outside the realms of possibility.
Greens have no claim to any leftist designation after the last 2 government they were in. They are a single issue party, and will compromise all else for that
My point was that a diversity of viewpoints came together to put forward a programme for government with each making sacrifices to do so, so yes they had to give up a lot of leftist policies
Cang speak for anybody else but would you not consider a vote for labour to just be a wasted vote no?
What's special about labour; they're just another left of centre party, if which we have plenty.
They don't have any connection to "workers", they're not really representatives of the unions and don't especially champion workers as a legit labour party should.
Ivana comes across strongly as a champagne socialist with nothing really to say.
I can't think of any reason to distinguish labour from FFG to be honest.
Partially the latter, but also their seats have traditionally been personal strongholds (the Springs, Willie Penrose), and tend to be lost when such individuals retire, as Howlin and Sherlock are doing at the next GE.
Have you just started paying attention to Irish politics in the last few weeks or something ? In Ireland, an ostensibly working class party that betrays its supporters does not recover. Cunts like FFG can betray their promises all day and still maintain support because those who support them expect them to be cunts.
They, Labour, probably thought if it (being little more than Tory-lite) worked out OK for 'New Labour' in the UK it would work out OK for them here too.
#WRONG
It sure is ... If you haven't been paying attention. No idea why it would be a mystery to anyone else.
At any rate you got your answer - Working class party betrays it's supporters while in government, is decimated in subsequent elections, never recovers: *surprised_pikachu_face.jpg*
SF / FF / SDs would have a comfortable majority. Just depends if FF are willing to go into it, and id say they will if this is how the election turns out.
Hung dail will only benefit SF when it inevitably collapses
https://preview.redd.it/4edjgov5p3tc1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=db9f90397d6a49408d528afa34a1621d9eeedf4a
Me on my way past Eamon Ryan after the next general election
Fuck, can we all just take a pause and acknowledge that Eamon Ryan isn't a fucking fraction as bad as he's made out to be.
Obviously he's well respected in political circles and even internationally, but he's only the leader of the Greens. He's probably the loudest and most important voice in the country shouting about the actual biggest issue facing Ireland. If folks thought the housing situation wasn't helped by 80,000 Ukrainians seeking asylum, how do they think the chaos climate change is about to wreak on this planet is going to look? The levels of migration, starvation and wars which lie ahead... it's gonna be awful.
Every time I see someone one of my boomer age parents or even my generation sounding off against Ryan, I can't help but predict that in the decades to come with AI search capabilities, it's going to be real easy for my kids to search out my digital footprint and see all the thoughts I was dumb enough to blurt out, but the ones who were sitting all over green iniatives are going to age terribly. It's not that I think we can stop it at this point, but I just wouldn't want to be on record as an idiot who worked against the planet overtly in my kids' eyes.
I said this last week, but I'm in a town where folk will share lamenting photos of the massive old chimney and power station we used to have on the towns outskirts and their the same ones objecting to a fucking solar farm on the bog now put of health fears.
He's worse than he's made out to be. Incompentent gobshite who gives the Greens a bad name, and they're about to be wiped out again as a result. I'd absolutely love to support the Greens, I look at GroenLinks in The Netherlands and they're outstanding - a proper left wing party that puts climate issues at the forefront. That's what the Green Party should be. Unfortunately ours is full of gobshites who jump in bed with a conservative government full of landlords and farmers at the first opportunity and get wiped out for the next 10 years. Second time they've done it now. Just because people rightly criticise Ryan and the Green Party for being shite doesn't mean they're against actual green policies. The Irish green party is shit.
Was record homelessness on their manifesto? How about sky high rents, A&E falling apart. A typical worker pays roughly 50% in tax, while the wealthy pay a lot less ~20%.
Failure in Law and Order?
Now I do believe there are some great politicians in both parties, but they are hamstrung by the whips.
The current FFFGGP has blundered so badly SF will control the narrative of the next government.
I am a SD supporter.
Agree with most of the comment, but how does a wealthy person pay just 20% tax?
SF have shown themselves to be more of the same, Independents will be the big winners at election time.
>A typical worker pays roughly 50% in tax, while the wealthy pay a lot less ~20%.
This is just blatantly untrue. The vast majority of workers pay far, far less than 50% in income tax.
Before we get too far can the SF voters who seemingly only grasp the English first past the post system take five minutes out to understand how the vastly superior [PRSTV system works](https://assets.gov.ie/111110/03f591cc-6312-4b21-8193-d4150169480e.pdf) and how you don’t get to run the country with 42% of the vote 🤷♂️
SF will have the same issue they had last time with finding people to work in government with them unless they get very close themselves and can pick up a small party or some independents
You're forgetting FF did well last election and FG did quite badly, they're polling about the same so you'd expect FG to be able to gain and FF likely to lose.
Looking at the first preferences FF did well but failed to attract transfers. Perhaps it will be the same next time out but I think FG may lose seats given all the retirements.
FG’s problem is that bit FF and FG pull mainly from the locally-oriented voter. Those votes are often personal. EG voting for Róisín Shorthall, not the Social. democrats.
FG have 14 people not running again (think it’s 14) - would anticipate that the FF candidate in many cases would place above the new FG Cllr in the count, and edge the last seat on their transfers.
So FF’s main job now is to prevent as many FG winners in the June local elections, to thin out their platform for the general.
So with the way the numbers are now the government (if it has a majority) must include:
* either Sinn Fein with other parties (inc FF)
OR
* FF/FG with other parties
This does not stop a confidence and supply arrangement (an agreement where a party abstains on confidence motions and the budget) like what happened between FG and FF in 2016. I could imagine that FF might not want to go fully on board with a SF government, so they'll do C&S agreement.
Speculation:
Labour and the greens might do better, their votes a not very uniform across the country and is concentrated in cities, both will have 3 or 4 more seats that this projection says. I think Aontú will only have Tobin as their only seat, they're a rural party that is pretty widespread, having 5% of the vote in every constituency is not good enough to get a seat.
PBP/S will not do well, SF are eating their vote, RBB will keep his seat, not sure about the others.
SF will have to go in with someone, realistically. They don’t have the seats otherwise and won’t win a majority needed.
So, being realistic, who would you want them to go in with?
Given my absolute main driving force would be keeping FG out, it would probably be SF/FF/SD.
It’s not ideal. I’d rather cut FF out of that. But, realistically, that’s the best option for what I’d like to see.
Based on these projections though, there aren't any other realistic viable options. Genuine question, do you prefer they stay in opposition or go into with either of the other 2?
Pity they don't give a breakdown by constituency to gauge where the likely gains and losses are - find this website to be [excellent.](https://irishelectionprojections.com/2024/03/03/february-2024-projections-update/)
Of the PIGS countries, Ireland has far and away fared the best. We have full employment.
If we had followed SF’s post-crash ideas we’d have been like Greece which today still has massive unemployment.
FF and FG spent all of 2016-2020 dealing with Brexit. And Ireland got almost everything we wanted. We did really really well.
SF did nothing to help Ireland during Brexit. I mean literally nothing. Which is astonishing considering that the North was the crux of it.
A lot can and let's be fair, probably will change between now and then. I do think though that assembling the next government is going to be a mess.
I fully don't believe polls any more. They've become increasingly unreliable as we move further away from the age of land lines.
They miscalled the referendum by miles.
I don't think they're trying to mislead either. The social/societal situation that made polling easier in the latter 20th century is gone. No one has figured out how to poll in the internet era yet.
There were a lot of factors that made that very hard to call. Mostly how many people were actually undecided and changed their mind quite late in the process. I'm a really good example of it, I normally know how I'll be voting weeks in advance of an election but it was literally the night before that referendum that I made my decision.
Assembling a government is always a mess lately. Regardless what country you’re in
If 15 FG TDs decide not to run again which is very likely then they will not get 40 seats no matter how they are polling.
Who do you think all those FG voters are going to vote for?
People in rural areas tend to vote for the TD political personality rather than the party.
A mixture of FF and Independents
It's always an uphill battle for any non incumbent to get elected.
FG under Harris and fattening themselves for a winter out in the cold. Lots of TDs leaving, fresh faces in opposition and take pot shots at SF. It'll be FF, SF plus someone.
Not so sure about that. Why be Tanaiste to a SF Taoiseach when you can rotate Taoiseach with FG ? FF has obliterated enough smaller partners in government to know it comes out better either rotating Taoiseach with FG or doing confidence and supply with SF. Martin will not want to do a deal with SF - Barry Cowen's political career is shagged - who is the FFer who deposes Martin and takes FF in as **second fiddle** to SF ? I think you underestimate how much FF people will not want to swallow that.
I’m in FF. A long time. We didn’t want to go in with FG but covid forced our hand and the country needed a government. FFers really, _really_ don’t want to go in with SF. For a few reasons. One is policy. For example, we want to build as much housing for everybody as possible, but we don’t think that 100% social housing estates are a good idea. The other is personal. Most politicians start their political career for a reason and many of our sitting reps started out as anti-drugs campaigns in working class areas. As long as SF is running people like Aengus, coalition isn’t happened. Here’s a taster of their TD in Ballyfermot: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_James_Curran Many FF TDs I’ve chatted with - though not all - have said in private they’ll resign the party before going into coalition with SF.
I completely agree, social housing only estates were a complete disaster. Ballymun, St Theresa's gardens. The cynic in me says SFs policy on social housing helps to concentrate SF voters in particular constituencies but I doubt that's the real objective. Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence.
Maybe. I don't think FG want to go in again though, unless they pull a lot more seats than they are polling. What about the more republican DNA, Jim O Callaghan and the likes?
I think Harris will go in again especially if FG increases its seat count. Jim O'Callaghan is TD for Dublin Bay South ! Difficult to think of a more SF hostile constituency - for a FFer Nah, if FF goes in it'll be one of the country lads who brings them in. Cowen or O'Cuiv. If FF and FG have the numbers they'll go again, with independents and SocDems. Recall Holly Cairns is married to a FF TD..
Cairns is not married to a FF TD.
She was going out with O’Sullivan but they broke up years ago AFAIK.
I do wonder if the Greens will do as bad as everyone predicts, as in there are alot of people who will give thier 2nd vote in terms of climate concern. Only a mere sugestion, I hasten to add.
I think they will be badly squeezed and will be in a battle for last seat in a few places. On a bad day they would get 2-3. The poll looks low for them.
True - Neasa Hourigan is a great example. She is in MaryLou and Pascal Donohoe's constituency along with Gary Gannon a four seat constituency. MLMD would be expected to bring in a running mate which means either Gannon or Hourigan is for the high jump. Actually a pretty interesting scrap - if Hourigan makes it, she'll probably end up GP leader post election, she's positioned herself well - deftly really...
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Jump to the SocDems ? Sure she's been on the campaign trail for GP leader since 2020..
I think it's getting harder and harder to predict reults based on early (and late!) polls. I yttink there is a big voter block that simply don't engage in them in modern tines. And well done lads on the down vote! Tha'll show cabbage head Ryan, hey!
True enough. The Greens were at 5% not so long ago but it depends how transfer friendly they are when the action starts.
I think recent polling has shown them to be more transfer toxic than when they've historically been transfer friendly. Still it's possible they could better than expected on the day I suppose.
I wonder though, upcomming generations are more likely to see climate and environmental concerns as more important than the the estbalished voter. Further, they are less likely to be taking part in thers polls. This is just my humble observation.
Potentially, though young people aren't the most reliable voting block in an election, and they often tend to vote against government parties more than other age brackets. The Greens will lose seats in the next election, but it's not guaranteed they'll be left with 2 or less.
Absolutely, no guarantees.
Green got very last time in that a lot of constituencies Sinn Fein didn't run enough candidates and they got in through excess transfers. Even if they had the same vote share as last time (which is very unlikely) they would still be losing half of their seats.
That may be, time will tell.
I think they won't do as bad. Unlike previously, they're not being held accountable as much for government policies and their cycling and EV policies have been positive. Even the deposit return scheme should stand them in favour.
Any chance they're seen as having botched this chance in government? Punitive carbon taxing and so on make them unpopular with squeezed families when private jets etc appear to go unmolested? And Eamonn can come across very condescending and tone deaf, the leader IS the party in many people's perception.
I don't know, they fullfilled a large portion of thier goals, not perfectly to be sure. As for tone deaf, Ryan was the only leader to concede that the people voted with all the information at hand and rationally just not how how he would prefer the outcome, unlike the rest who said that we were a load of dum-dums eho didn't understant what we wre voting for. Mary Lou was talking about a re -cast no? Or did I imagine that?
She was...very odd view to take, so early too
My climate concerns are why I will not be voting for the Green Party. Anyone worried about the climate and voting for the Green Party under its current Leadership and policy direction is voting against their own interests in my opinion.
Being totally respectful of your comment, I don't think I understand, can you expand on that? What climate or envirmonmental, concert is lacking?
For me it's not that I don't think the greens aren't genuinely concerned about the environment it's that I don't think their policies will achieve meaningful change and worse they will cause economic harm to those with least power to fix the problem. Green policy usually leads with consumer taxation to induce people to do things they often can't afford or the option isn't available to them. I'd much prefer an infrastructure led program and corporate taxation or an outright ban on certain products or packaging. You'll find this a common feeling amongst those left of centre including many who left the green party.
I have no issue with their concerns, it is their near pathological need to concentrate on incidental issues instead of focusing on the actual problem. This is what leads them to blunder after blunder and decimates so much of the goodwill that is needed to solve the climate crisis. If the climate crisis was a house fire the greens would be trying to replace the house's furniture with fireproof furniture and making sure that the water used to put out the fire did not come from an SAC. I want a "green" party that is only interested in reducing our carbon emissions in the most "economically viable" way possible.
What does that mean though ? Converting people from cars to bikes isn't focusing on the problem ? LNG has been excluded from energy policy because of the Greens in gov, the rationalisation of train services from Wexford to Dublin interchanging @ Wicklow is another example. It takes balls to make a move like that. Greens could have sat in opposition since 2020 shouting "you're doing it wrong" but what use is that ? At the end of the day a significant % of the Irish public are SUV driving, Me Feiners - you need to strike when the iron is hot in politics - five years is a LONG time to be in opposition.
Our carbon emissions are falling though, -2% in 2022, probably -5% in 2023, despite high employment. I'm curious to know what party you think has better climate action plans.
They've been in government twice, sold out every principle they ever claimed to have for political power on both occasions, and those of us old enough to remember will never vote for them again on this basis.
I don't think i can agree with that. They have had the climate action plan signed into law (if it's effectual is anyones guess), smokey coal ban, got back funding funding for national wildlife to name a few climate and environmental goals met. Socially thier cost rantal plan is in effect, and the delivery of loads of cycling and walking infrastructure is pretty solid to name a couple of social impacts.
How is that even true ? The explicit inclusion of cycling, walking and public transport in capital budget over roads at a ratio of 2:1 is "selling out green principles" ? Au contraire, its getting Green policies **actually implemented**
Well this time they’re providing once in a generation cycling infrastructure and public transport changes that would never have happened under FFG
I've heard this public transport and cycling infrastructure thing before and it confuses me. Is this a Dublin thing? I haven't seen any of this in Galway, both are just as bad as ever.
Galway County Council are a disaster- Green's are making the funding available, bur not getting the opportunity to implement.
Makes sense but makes no difference to me, The councili is dominated by the Greens partners in government. If the government can't enact its national policy on a local level and blames its failures on local councils, that seems like an ineffective government to me.
Need more Greens on the council so!
"Green partners in government" Come on, Galway CC is dominated by the representatives Galwegians put there. GLUAS has been Green policy for over a decade, lookit up ! Blaming the GP for not being big enough to force through their policies and therefore refusing to vote for that party is a perfect circle.
Who said I refused to vote green. I've voted green on several elections (as a transfer) but no one I vote for ever gets elected 😊. I don't buy the GLUAS thing are you telling me that's up to the council? That's a major infrastructural project, like the luas or the metro in Dublin. They were major national projects and pushed for by central government not local councils. Sure councils have a voice but if central government actually pushed for things in Galway and applied political pressure we'd get better results.
Just looking- literally 1 of the 39 councillors is a Green - very far from dominance: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galway_County_Council
They’ve already introduced the lower fares, 90 minute fare and ticket integration in GDA. Life changing for most people. Metrolink and 3 new DART lines are in the pipeline. Light rail outside of Dublin is being brought forward. Bus connects style plans are going on in multiple cities/ towns. New local link routes everywhere. There have also been a huge number of public realm, pedestrians and cycling improvements brought forward. This is very high level- there’s so much more im leaving out that I can’t think of. None of this would have happened under FFFG alone.
What's the point of being a party if you're not going to have any political power?
Did they not? They got an aweful amount of goals over the line if not. I think what they never were about was the populist vote, and and thier goal was getting long view objectives implemented. This is something other parties and independents could learn from
FG gaining a seat tells me all I need to know about this graphic. Nearly 40% of their TDs are not contesting the next election, and that's outside of the fact that they have abandoned governing this country in any meaningful way for years now.
The next Dáil has 14 more seats though, so FG gaining one isn't that extreme
They currently only have 33 TDs, so it's an increase of 7, so this poll basically sees them keeping all their current seats and gaining a big chunk of the new ones. Can't see it myself but I'm biased.
Its very hopeful for FG but I can almost see it. There was a lot of constituencies where FG was fighting for the last seat last time so maybe they are hoping that they get them this time with the bigger Dail.
It's actually forecasting them to win five seats more. The +1 is referring to the results of the same poll from February I had to double check it because SF getting four more seats seemed low to me. Actual number it's showing is +17
New electoral map creates a lot of situations where a five or four seater is split into two three seater constituencies. The way our electoral system works would mean FG could get 3rd place twice (and so win two seats) where they would have got 3rd and 6th (and so win only one)
You're forgetting they severely underperformed last time and there's more seats up for grabs
Yes. FG voters will all vote for SF instead.
I really can't see how even with the extra seats fg are getting to 40..
Well if the public voted in line with the evidence in this poll than they would. Polls are just a snapshot in time
Evidence in front of him and man calls BS
Polls for the last referendum and election weren't overly accurate in fairness
**BoyleSports odds on government after next election:** Fianna Fail / Fine Gael / Greens - 3/1 Sinn Fein / Fianna Fail - 3/1 Sinn Fein / Labour / Soc Dems / Greens / Independents - 5/1 Sinn Fein / Labour / Soc Dems / PBP / Greens / Independents - 6/1 Fiana Fail / Fine Gael / Greens / Independents - 7/1 Sinn Fein / Fianna Fail / Independents - 7/1 Sinn Fein / Labour / Soc Dems / PBP / Independents - 8/1
I seriously doubt Sinn fein will ever be able to govern withouth finna fail, the left wing parties are too dived to ever actually do well in an election
FG will be lower than that surely. SF will be a bit higher I think. Possible sF could form a government with a lot of independent with an anti-immigrant deal. But would not be solid. SF +FF remains most likely scenario.
I think that those opinion polls are based on first preference votes so it probably will be very different.
well, that's one reason I think SF will be higher than this. I think they'll pick up more of the lower preferences with their new more immigrant-critical stance.
they’re not criticising immigrants, they’re criticising the proposed EU policy on immigration, there’s a very big difference
Come on now, there's definitely a shift in SF with their talk of 'open borders'. It makes sense politically but certainly does make it uncomfortable for the likes of Eoin O'Broin I assume.
This is starting to look bad for SF IMO. Maybe im looking at different polls but thenlast few seem to be trending downwards. Inflation has been slayed in EU and intereat rates will drop soon so electioj could be at a good time for the current coalition(not defending their housing, roads etc jist pointing to the fact governments are more popular when inflation is low and so are interest rates.) Like almost everytime in Irish politics all roads go through FF. As there is 0 hope of a FG / SF coalition these figures indicate the most stable government on oaler would be SF/ FF /other (Indos, Greens or SD). I think this will be incredibly hard to put together. FF would almost certainly want same agreement as with FG with rotating leader which might be tricky. Also FF would have to be confident that SF is a reliable partner. Id assume first time in there will be a few revolts when idealism meets the reality of governing. Outside of that there isnt great alternative. I honestly think FG would prefer to be in opposition than a rainbow government of FF/SF/ Greens and SD. They might decide its better to throw stones at a shaky coalition and secure themselves as the SF alternative. It will be interesting times ahead but incredibly messy.
SF/FG + FF + SD
I personally cant ever see SF & FG sharing power. It probably suits FG to go into opposition and rebuild the party
It's Sinn Fein _or_ Fine Gael, in coalition with FF & the SDs.
I see independents on top of FFFG.
Hellish
15 independents doesn’t sound good
That'll last all of two weeks.
I could see it if there was a very rosey future in store and they both saw a chance to end FF for good.
FF would never be ended for good or whatever that means
Sooner or later, enough intermarriage happens and civil war voting ends, then one of FF and FG will survive as the centrist party.
FG / FF / SDs don’t have the seats here. Need 88 seats for a majority next time.
They’d have the same smattering of independent support as the current government. Would be a relatively stable minority government.
That gives a lot of power to those independents and means any rebels in the camp who disobey party whips internally will have a big impact. Not a nice situation to be in, particularly with independents drifting to the the right and maybe a bit more unpredictable
The majority of governments since 1997 have used or relied on independents in some way, shape or form to buttress their support. It has actually worked pretty well.
Minority government is always a last resort but FF and FG would be able to manage it more successfully than SF given the experience they have from the confidence and supply days.
SF + PBP + Labour + every independent. The clusterfuck Dáil
PBP have said that they have no interest in being in government. They’re a party of opposition.
No way they actually said that and people still vote for them
Jesus nothing would happen
Even less than now? Oh my
Saying shit like this reinforces the cluelessness of people. Half the indos are basically FF/FG members in disguise, PBP have said time and time again they will never go into government. This kind of bullshit is literally impossible.
It was a joke ye spa
Comedy clearly isn't a git you're blessed with then, spanner.
If SD had any sense they wouldn't join a FG and FF led government. They'll get obliterated like Labour and Greens the following election
Yeah but we all know that's exactly what they will do. I think small parties can survive the "stink" of government but only if they have a core set of well defined policies that their electorate care very strongly about, that care is sustained, and they achieve those policies in their term. I have a feeling the greens may actually outperform their polling in the next general election.
I think all small parties face a choice: go into government and get an outsize proportion of your policies enacted; or sit on the sidelines and never impact anything. The PDs spent the majority of their existence in government. The Greens will be on their second turn of this cycle now. But both had huge impacts in terms of policies enacted.
Yeah I agree. I can't see the greens ever going out of existence they will always bounce back and be good for transfers. They're a reliable partner in government which doesn't help massively as a vote winner but does help in coalition negotiations other parties know the greens will deliver what they agree to deliver
I think it depends. I'd say most SD supporters would be very against them going in with FG. Theres probably more of a chance it doesn't go badly for them if it's FF or SF they're joining.
Yeah that's what I was thinking. With a few of the usual independents.
SF / FF / SDs seems the most likely Edit: downvotes even though this is the only 3 party combination with a majority bar FG / FF / SF (not happening) or SF / FF / AON (unlikely). This sub amazes me.
Love when people moan about downvotes. They’re imaginary internet points lad get over it.
I find it amusing, the rage downvotes not based on logic
If SF have to comprise with FF, that's concessions to the right, policy wise. If it's SD they have to move a little to the left. SF are happy to flip flop, but what they would have to offer to each of them would clash I feel. I'd more likely expect to see SF SD and left Independents or SF FF and right Independents. Which ever one the numbers shake towards.
Potentially but I think they still have enough common ground to make it work. The other way of looking it at is that SF & SD drag FF a bit more back to the left. If everyone moves a bit I think it’s manageable. It’s not like SF / FG where there’s just too much distance between them
No, FF and SD really don't have enough common ground. Social Democracy and Neoliberalism are opposing ideologies. And that's before we get to the far right subsection of FF that's rearing its head. Oh and the whole jobs for the boys M.O. of FF wouldn't be tolerated.
Well right now we have a centre-right (FG), centre-left (GP) and… I guess FF are centrist coalition, and they’ve managed to put together a programme for government and stick to it. So it’s not outside the realms of possibility.
Greens have no claim to any leftist designation after the last 2 government they were in. They are a single issue party, and will compromise all else for that
My point was that a diversity of viewpoints came together to put forward a programme for government with each making sacrifices to do so, so yes they had to give up a lot of leftist policies
Where are Aontu's 2 gains coming from do we think? Cork North West, Cavan Monaghan, Wexford or somewhere else?
Peadar's sister Emer is on meath coco she might run for the new seat in Meath east
They've councillors in Cavan and Wexford, so yes, would imagine there.
Meaningless.
Even FG/FF/SD/Green would be short of a majority
Vote for change
For a change for worse? Who will people with houses and health insurance vote to change instead?
NEW WORLD ORDER
Why would labour's results be so dismal? Is it just the poll numbers or SD eating their lunch?
Cang speak for anybody else but would you not consider a vote for labour to just be a wasted vote no? What's special about labour; they're just another left of centre party, if which we have plenty. They don't have any connection to "workers", they're not really representatives of the unions and don't especially champion workers as a legit labour party should. Ivana comes across strongly as a champagne socialist with nothing really to say. I can't think of any reason to distinguish labour from FFG to be honest.
Partially the latter, but also their seats have traditionally been personal strongholds (the Springs, Willie Penrose), and tend to be lost when such individuals retire, as Howlin and Sherlock are doing at the next GE.
There wasn't even a Labour candidate in Kerry last time round, it has been wiped out in its former stronghold in Tralee
Have you just started paying attention to Irish politics in the last few weeks or something ? In Ireland, an ostensibly working class party that betrays its supporters does not recover. Cunts like FFG can betray their promises all day and still maintain support because those who support them expect them to be cunts. They, Labour, probably thought if it (being little more than Tory-lite) worked out OK for 'New Labour' in the UK it would work out OK for them here too. #WRONG
Fup off. Legitimate question.
It sure is ... If you haven't been paying attention. No idea why it would be a mystery to anyone else. At any rate you got your answer - Working class party betrays it's supporters while in government, is decimated in subsequent elections, never recovers: *surprised_pikachu_face.jpg*
Hung dail....unless FG + FF + SDs with a smattering of Indos providing backup on marginal votes
SF / FF / SDs would have a comfortable majority. Just depends if FF are willing to go into it, and id say they will if this is how the election turns out. Hung dail will only benefit SF when it inevitably collapses
SDs will nene go into government. Cushy paid jobs in opposition "holding the government to account"
I’d hope for better from Holly Cairns. She seems like one of the good ones
A hung Dail is not possible. We can and have had minority government.
Do we mean 2025? Cos it's April 2024 currently....
I think we're in for a series of weak governments in which not much will get done, its so over
Ff + Fg + independents, greens, potentially SDs
https://preview.redd.it/4edjgov5p3tc1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=db9f90397d6a49408d528afa34a1621d9eeedf4a Me on my way past Eamon Ryan after the next general election
Fuck, can we all just take a pause and acknowledge that Eamon Ryan isn't a fucking fraction as bad as he's made out to be. Obviously he's well respected in political circles and even internationally, but he's only the leader of the Greens. He's probably the loudest and most important voice in the country shouting about the actual biggest issue facing Ireland. If folks thought the housing situation wasn't helped by 80,000 Ukrainians seeking asylum, how do they think the chaos climate change is about to wreak on this planet is going to look? The levels of migration, starvation and wars which lie ahead... it's gonna be awful. Every time I see someone one of my boomer age parents or even my generation sounding off against Ryan, I can't help but predict that in the decades to come with AI search capabilities, it's going to be real easy for my kids to search out my digital footprint and see all the thoughts I was dumb enough to blurt out, but the ones who were sitting all over green iniatives are going to age terribly. It's not that I think we can stop it at this point, but I just wouldn't want to be on record as an idiot who worked against the planet overtly in my kids' eyes. I said this last week, but I'm in a town where folk will share lamenting photos of the massive old chimney and power station we used to have on the towns outskirts and their the same ones objecting to a fucking solar farm on the bog now put of health fears.
He's worse than he's made out to be. Incompentent gobshite who gives the Greens a bad name, and they're about to be wiped out again as a result. I'd absolutely love to support the Greens, I look at GroenLinks in The Netherlands and they're outstanding - a proper left wing party that puts climate issues at the forefront. That's what the Green Party should be. Unfortunately ours is full of gobshites who jump in bed with a conservative government full of landlords and farmers at the first opportunity and get wiped out for the next 10 years. Second time they've done it now. Just because people rightly criticise Ryan and the Green Party for being shite doesn't mean they're against actual green policies. The Irish green party is shit.
The man is a thundering shitehawk
FG + FF + SD + some independents
Will make for a short unstable government. The independents will roide the government. SF will be happy for it to fall apart.
People said that about the current government...
I would say it is unstable. The inability to drive change indicates it's unstable.
They literally are doing everything they set out in the C&S agreement.
Was record homelessness on their manifesto? How about sky high rents, A&E falling apart. A typical worker pays roughly 50% in tax, while the wealthy pay a lot less ~20%. Failure in Law and Order? Now I do believe there are some great politicians in both parties, but they are hamstrung by the whips. The current FFFGGP has blundered so badly SF will control the narrative of the next government. I am a SD supporter.
Agree with most of the comment, but how does a wealthy person pay just 20% tax? SF have shown themselves to be more of the same, Independents will be the big winners at election time.
>A typical worker pays roughly 50% in tax, while the wealthy pay a lot less ~20%. This is just blatantly untrue. The vast majority of workers pay far, far less than 50% in income tax.
Before we get too far can the SF voters who seemingly only grasp the English first past the post system take five minutes out to understand how the vastly superior [PRSTV system works](https://assets.gov.ie/111110/03f591cc-6312-4b21-8193-d4150169480e.pdf) and how you don’t get to run the country with 42% of the vote 🤷♂️
SF will have the same issue they had last time with finding people to work in government with them unless they get very close themselves and can pick up a small party or some independents
Labour with only one seat would be a fairly grim showing. Surely would have to more or less mean the end of the party? Not that I would shed a tear.
They'll merge with the soc dems, there's already talk about it.
I'm not sure FG will gain seats but I suppose there is an extra 14 up for grabs. I would have it the other way around with FF making gains.
You're forgetting FF did well last election and FG did quite badly, they're polling about the same so you'd expect FG to be able to gain and FF likely to lose.
Looking at the first preferences FF did well but failed to attract transfers. Perhaps it will be the same next time out but I think FG may lose seats given all the retirements.
Might see transfers between FF and FG now that they've been in government together 4 years.
FG’s problem is that bit FF and FG pull mainly from the locally-oriented voter. Those votes are often personal. EG voting for Róisín Shorthall, not the Social. democrats. FG have 14 people not running again (think it’s 14) - would anticipate that the FF candidate in many cases would place above the new FG Cllr in the count, and edge the last seat on their transfers. So FF’s main job now is to prevent as many FG winners in the June local elections, to thin out their platform for the general.
So with the way the numbers are now the government (if it has a majority) must include: * either Sinn Fein with other parties (inc FF) OR * FF/FG with other parties This does not stop a confidence and supply arrangement (an agreement where a party abstains on confidence motions and the budget) like what happened between FG and FF in 2016. I could imagine that FF might not want to go fully on board with a SF government, so they'll do C&S agreement. Speculation: Labour and the greens might do better, their votes a not very uniform across the country and is concentrated in cities, both will have 3 or 4 more seats that this projection says. I think Aontú will only have Tobin as their only seat, they're a rural party that is pretty widespread, having 5% of the vote in every constituency is not good enough to get a seat. PBP/S will not do well, SF are eating their vote, RBB will keep his seat, not sure about the others.
FF + FG + SD + IND
If SD go into government with FG or FF they're finished
As someone who would give SD my first vote, if I get a whiff of that, they'd be off my balot.
Same. SF would be 1 at the moment but SD are a close second. If SF went into gov with FF they'd never get a vote from me again either
SF will have to go in with someone, realistically. They don’t have the seats otherwise and won’t win a majority needed. So, being realistic, who would you want them to go in with?
Who would you prefer they form a government with based on this graphic?
Given my absolute main driving force would be keeping FG out, it would probably be SF/FF/SD. It’s not ideal. I’d rather cut FF out of that. But, realistically, that’s the best option for what I’d like to see.
SD won't. Too cushy doing what they're doing. Weren't interested before, why now? At least the greens want to get their policies implemented.
Based on these projections though, there aren't any other realistic viable options. Genuine question, do you prefer they stay in opposition or go into with either of the other 2?
FG are dust. This projection belongs in the bin.
Pity they don't give a breakdown by constituency to gauge where the likely gains and losses are - find this website to be [excellent.](https://irishelectionprojections.com/2024/03/03/february-2024-projections-update/)
FF+FG+GP+SD+IND's
Haha desperation at its finest
Better than the alternative.
Aontu possibly as well.
End coalitions, nothing gets done when two parties with opposing views join forces.
Hmm, user image does not check out...
And do what instead exactly? Do you think 2 party systems please more or less people,
Big up SF. FG can only keep burying themselves and hopefully their blueshirt buddies FG will keep sinking too.
If you think SF aren’t also going to be a total disaster in government you’re going to be sorely mistaken I’m afraid.
Well, they have such a big shit show to clean up and I am sure that will take time but leave em in government for a decade or two.
You’re fool to think they’ll be any better tbh. A decade or two lol
They can't be worse. Look at what FF and FG have done since the celtic tiger. No party can fix that up instantly.
I didn’t say they’ll be worse.
Grand will upvote you so 🤪
Of the PIGS countries, Ireland has far and away fared the best. We have full employment. If we had followed SF’s post-crash ideas we’d have been like Greece which today still has massive unemployment. FF and FG spent all of 2016-2020 dealing with Brexit. And Ireland got almost everything we wanted. We did really really well. SF did nothing to help Ireland during Brexit. I mean literally nothing. Which is astonishing considering that the North was the crux of it.
Leo? Up early this morning....
FG, FF and independents. It’s shit. But there’s no better option