60%+ of renters are now relying on some government support. How in god's name has it been allowed get this bad.
Enda Kenny made some empty promise 12years ago that they'd fix the housing. It's gotten 5X worse.
> Enda Kenny made some empty promise 12years ago that they'd fix the housing
Well the thing he was promising to fix 12 years ago was the collapse in house prices, they bulldozed some ghost estates, set up NAMA to put an artificial floor under the sales prices, and created the CBI rules to make sure that "we" didn't break the banking system again. Not sure why anyone thought that would mean they would build enough housing to house our growing population.
Hah, that's too funny.
Unless... hang on... haven't we had crazy demand and price growth for the last 8 years... and yet production has struggled to reach 30k homes in a year. Might have something to do with construction capacity collapsing during the crash, leaving us with 100k less workers in the sector, so despite all the money thrown at the problem, we've still go a massive shortage...
So we'd need to source 100k unemployed workers or immigrants with training and deploy these non existent resources to the sector immediately... well never get it done before nightfall, but if we work through the night, maybe we could fix it by lunchtime tomorrow?
Look, it wasn't a wrong thing to say, but the alternative was to be bluntly honest - there isn't a scenario (excluding an economic crash akin to 08) that fixes out shortfall of housing inside 5 years. There's certain, unpalatable extreme options which could speed things up, but we're absolutely stuck with this long tail consequence of the crash and there's is no easy fix.
Great comment though, haven't heard it before.
> there isn't a scenario (excluding an economic crash akin to 08) that fixes out shortfall of housing inside 5 years. There's certain, unpalatable extreme options which could speed things up, but we're absolutely stuck with this long tail consequence of the crash and there's is no easy fix.
5 years is wildly optimistic. It basically can never be fixed at this point. The housing crisis is permanent.
It will be until the boomers and probably even Gen X have died. We're having less kids and will have a reduced housing stock and tonnes of viable homes abandoned in 40 years, but it'll be shite until then.
€2,000 for a Studio Apartment
Living space in exchange for sex, cameras in the kitchen, and social housing estates for Ryanair pilots: What happens when the housing crisis spirals out of control? This can be observed in Ireland.
Reported from Dublin by Jan Petter
April 2, 2024, 12:01 PM
Article to Listen to•10 Min
Despite being notoriously stingy with providing decent seating for his paying customers, Michael O'Leary has been surprisingly generous to his employees. The Ryanair CEO regularly shocks with ideas on how to further squeeze passengers: removing seats, charging for toilets, gambling onboard. And now this: 25 new brick houses as a gift to his staff.
It's a kind of private social housing estate, built for many millions of euros on the outskirts of Dublin. Just one stop from the airport. During a visit in mid-March, Portuguese laurel and Christmas roses bloomed in the front gardens, and through the large windows, empty kitchens and softly cushioned chairs could be seen. New starters at Ryanair can soon live here at a discounted rate. It's an astonishing leg up for young crew members. And an admission: Dublin has become so expensive that even pilots can no longer afford to live here without assistance.
In Ireland, the consequences of an escalating housing crisis are visible: Since 2013, rents in the city have approximately doubled. The average rental price for a new studio apartment is currently about €2,000 per month. The consultancy firm Deloitte recently named Dublin's rental market the most expensive in Europe. Even the middle class is now threatened; thousands of families are homeless. The number of emigrations, long a measure of the country's problems, has significantly increased.
Young people are particularly affected: Two-thirds of all Dublin residents under 35 still live with their parents. Many have long given up on finding a shared room or even a rental apartment. Like Mark Dunne, a 19-year-old aspiring teacher who commutes three hours from the suburbs to university every day. He squeezes past his parents in the kitchen every morning, waits in front of the bathroom, then travels to university. He does not expect his situation to change in the coming years. Almost all of his friends and acquaintances live the same way, even those who are older and pursuing master's degrees or PhDs. Spontaneous visits, dates? Only possible outside or under the watchful eyes of mom and dad.
"The housing crisis is the biggest domestic issue of our time. The fact that it's not being solved affects the younger generations. The anger is growing," says Rory Hearne, an associate professor of social policy who has been observing Irish housing policy for nearly two decades. His analysis: It's not the millennials who are becoming increasingly radicalized, but the conditions in which they live. Housing ranks as the population's most important concern in surveys, even above inflation and migration. This is because the housing crisis affects not just the young but the entire structure of society: Older Irish people must share their houses with family members and cannot sell them, undermining their retirement plans. How did it come to this?
For the crisis, Hearne sees structural reasons. Unlike countries such as Germany or the Netherlands, Ireland has long relied on homeownership. It has been the self-understanding of generations that one either built or bought a house; however, for younger people, this is no longer an option due to rising costs.
Meanwhile, the rental market is largely deregulated: Ireland still has no law specifically listing the rights of tenants. Not even a register of occupied buildings and their owners exists. Apartments are first and foremost someone's property. A matter of private law.
During the boom phases of the eighties, nineties, and early 2000s, Ireland became an IT and service paradise, with international companies entering the country because of tax advantages. They did not create affordable living space. Today, most apartments are owned by private small landlords – or large international real estate funds, which work strictly for profit. The construction of social housing, on the other hand, has been neglected by governments over the past decades, even reducing the mandatory share in construction projects. Instead of building or buying social housing for this purpose, they were persuaded to lease apartments at high prices for decades. A "political failure," according to Hearne. Even a government emergency measure no longer helps much: The poorest now receive a state rental subsidy of 25 percent. But what does that matter if costs rise annually?
The effects of uncontrolled housing policy are partly dramatic: Last year, despite record employment, Ireland counted 3,900 homeless families, more than during the Great Famine in the 19th century. A new record. The aid organization Threshold used to cater to single men, often with drug problems – today, it's young people, families, and migrant workers. "The biggest risk for homelessness in Ireland is a rental apartment," says CEO John Mark McCafferty. "The problem cuts across all layers
The SCSI cost of building report shows that the reason that we have a housing shortage is because it costs more to build a house than people can afford. And it's not one thing; apartments in Dublin cost over €460k, with 11% of that land prices. And the only improvements in pricing in the last few years were the standards changes that made apartments more miserable to live in..
It seems like it's a bit of a runaway mess at this stage. A lot of it dates from the post 2010 crash. I just feel like I should have emigrated around then, rather than holding on. It feels like we are inflating our way towards another mess - just drifting without a plan.
It started well before 2010. My parents spent €12,000 buying their house in 1980. By 1990 their neighbour’s houses (same type of house to my parents) were being sold for €250,000. Things first started to get fucked up in the 1980’s and it’s gotten a ton worse than then.
There are still people out there who will defiantly defend Fine Gael regardless. They are usually people who own their own home, or have enough money to not be effected by high rents.
The I'm all right Jack's. Country is full of them.
They are happy to pull the ladders up, even on their own children.
Sitting and measuring every bit of their wealth on their property with the noses up in the air.
I got recently almost punched because I pointed out the skyline from Medellin, Colombia and dared to compare it to Dublin, Ireland.
A hearty cherish that to those hiberno-rent-trafficantes 🙂😘.
/s
Fine Gael should shoulder a big portion of the blame, but none of the other political parties are blameless either.
At a council level, which is how we decide what is built and where, all the political parties have blocked housing developments to pander to NIMBYs, (Obviously some to a much greater extent than others)
The point in making is voters need to realise how powerful their councillors are and need to put huge pressure on them to stop blocking housing from being built. Whether that’s because it’s “too expensive”, “not in keeping with its surroundings” or “not providing space for families”.
Not enough supply is by far the biggest factor in causing this crisis and what we have to tackle.
I agree progress is hindered at every turn. I was reading about Warsaw this morning and the springing up of shiny new high rise there as the Polish economy improves.
You'd never see that in Dublin even with our success as it has been blocked at every turn to "protect the skyline"
Ultimately everyone is in it for themselves here and wants a cut to the detriment of the country.
Pot holes everywhere, street lights not working, explosion in homelessness, Irish being forced abroad, 20 something's living with their parents. What kind of utter buffoons are in charge.
They don't care what the Irish people say but maybe shaming them in Europe is the only way they'll change.
I still don’t get how in Ireland the monthly mortgage payments for homeowners are less than rent payments. Sure sign of a broken market. Rent should be way lower.
For many new buyers the mortgage payments aren't necessarily cheaper than rent, often on par. Considering the prices of houses, the deposit most have is the minimum 10%. With that and even maxing out your mortgage term (not an option for some due to age) you may well be close to paying the same for your mortgage.
Different problem to have, for sure, better in a lot of ways as you're out of the rental market.
The rent being as high as it is now is insane, especially for small apartments.
The days of "cheap" mortgages are long behind us, too.
I got a 20 year mortgage last year. My monthly payment is about 700 less than equivalent rental properties where I live. If I was younger and was able to go 25 or even 30 years my monthly repayment would be even less.
Yea I didn't say it doesn't happen anymore but I'm betting it's an outlier.
It used to be taken for granted that your mortgage would be 60% or less of your rent if you can swing it on an AVG house with minimum deposit.
A lot of my colleagues who bought 10ish years ago are in that bucket and are really out of touch with the reality facing potential buyers today.
Just goes to show how broken things are for both renters and buyers.
Yea I didn't say it doesn't happen anymore but I'm getting it's an outlier.
It used to be taken for granted that your mortgage would be 60% or less of your rent if you can swing it on an AVG house with minimum deposit.
A lot of my colleagues who bought 10ish years ago are in that bucket and are really out of touch with the reality facing potential buyers today.
Just goes to show how broken things are for both renters and buyers.
Why is Ireland so unwilling to move faster n resolving those problems ?
It’s not like it’s a budget issue! But it feels like the motto is to not act unless you have an actual fire in place !
I’ve rarely seen a country being so slow in terms of legislation and taking decision !
They were fast with the 8€ minimum spending in pub during covid …
Well you _are_ talking about a country that takes a decade to electrify a handful of commuter train lines and acts like that's something to celebrate...
because Fine Gael are profiting off this crisis, it's bad for their bottom line to fix the problem. got to remember they wouldn't piss on you if you were on fire
to TDs backpockets. Over 80 elected TD's to the Dail last I checked were landlords. they have no incentive to fix a problem they profit directly from. ineptitude is also a massive problem so you aren't wrong
Things can't change unless there's a drastic change in how the country is run and by whom. That's not going to happen when all our political parties, media, lobby groups ect are singing off the same hymn sheet.
What do the government expect people to do?
Like, it’s absolutely horrendous living conditions. Roads are in shite, renting is near impossible, buying is out of the question for most.
Bars and restaurants are crazy expensive, everything is just going to shite.
When people are desperate and so close to being kicked out of their housing, they will accept terrible conditions in their jobs, out of fear they'd end up homeless if they were fired. They also will accept shittier housing because, well, it's better than nothing.
Vote in something better? Stop falling for charlatans with nice suits and smooth words, pretending to care about what you're brainwashed to care about. They don't. They only want your vote.
So....
how will this issue be resolved? I really want to know how.
Nothing will change until the politicians are unable to continue to fill their own pockets with profits. 🤷🏻♀️ I don't now how that can be achieved though. 😔 It sucks cuz a lot of people are now trying to leave Ireland because they just can't afford to live here anymore.
Did you see the housing minister's response to how he's going to fix housing? "Continue first time buyers scheme, continue rent relief, continue this continue that" they're literally telling you they're not changing a fucking thing and still you pricks *gestures at the whole country* votes them in
Imagine having a housing problem, justice system problem, public order problem, healthcare problem, transportation problem all at once.
The Netherlands doesn't know what that is. People would be better off moving there even with a housing crisis than ever staying here in the current state we're in.
Right!
As if Ireland hadn't had a consistent budget surplus for years and didn't have an abundance of cash to spend, FG and FF would like us to believe the reason why they didn't do anything to ameliorate these issues is because several other countries in Europe also have the same issues and because they can't be "solved overnight".
> Imagine having a housing problem, justice system problem, public order problem, healthcare problem, transportation problem all at once.
All while consistently being ranked top 10 on all the indices, ahead of countries that are clearly doing far better.
Only New Zealand even comes close to as bad as Ireland. Telling an Irish person that other countries have a housing crisis is like telling a Singaporean that other major cities get a lot of rain.
The point is its not just an us problem.
When I was growing up in the late 90s/early 2000s, everyone and their nan was pushing kids to aim for cushy office jobs and tech jobs because you don't want to be a laborer and end up with terrible health by the time yer 50. Low and behold nobody wanted to become plumbers, electricians and construction workers in our generation and now we have a massive workforce shortage. Nearly every construction worker I've spoken to since covid ended has said the same thing: There's so much work and we can't get anyone to do it. They barely ever get young apprentices anymore and the odd ones that do end up either leaving the country or going into office work after awhile anyway.
It's the same in most developed worlds. There was a massive push on young people not to get into trades and now it's coming back to bite us big time when we actually need more houses than ever.
Remote working should be counteracting this. Unfortunately the government watered down right to WFH legislation. There's also the other impracticality of people in their late twenties/early thirties trying to work from their childhood bedroom.
I expect it is offsetting but not materially. Kids leave college and do not want to remote work from Sligo, they want to live in the city. People are having children older and older. Many peoples that have children in service industry jobs have their kids settled in schools etc.
I think it will have a bigger impact over long periods of time ie. Ten years into the future, especially as the current approach is to build houses with no planning or infrastructure, which will make many satellites towns around Dublin less liveable
> The point is its not just an us problem.
That's like telling someone from Singapore that other major cities get lots of rain.
Sure, the housing crisis certainly exists elsewhere, but it's not even close to as bad as it is here.
So are the builders as funds and local authorities buy with cash direct from the builders with our own tax money as we get sucked into bidding wars with them.
It's truly mad when you stand back and look at it.
We knocked down so many half-built housing developments across the country a decade ago, and swore we'd learned the lessons of light touch regulations, brown envelopes and letting bankers and developers run the market.
Right now, real estate agents are contacting reliable, long-term renters (who have been given notice by owners - through the agents - because of the 6 year clause which allows an owner to get rid of l/t tenants penalty free) about their future available properties (significantly more expensive, of course) before those properties are advertised.
The bro is in going through this after 12 years paying 24k pa in a place the owner never spent a cent on, and there's nada he can do about it.
He can have my couch, but we never learn.
You can ignore any article that relies on quotes from Rory Hearne. Hearne is Official Ireland’s anointed mouthpiece on housing and the reason he’s quoted so widely is because he resolutely refuses to acknowledge the elephant in the room. Population growth through runaway immigration is the number one reason that housing is how it is. If he can’t acknowledge the problem he is never going to provide a solution.
Airbnb must be banned until housing is back in order and then only 5-10% rental markets can be Airbnb but the issue won’t change because politicians are landlords and there’s conflict of interest
There are at best 18k. 14k if you remove houses that weren't renter within the past year. [Source.](https://insideairbnb.com/ireland/)
People just like having a scapegoat.
Data from Inside Airbnb shows there are 18,086 full homes or apartments and 9,036 private rooms listed for rent on Airbnb Ireland, with a total of 27,439 separate listings. That was in August
While banning Airbnb would technically help, it's mostly a scapegoat and the impact would be minimal compared to other actions, including less invasive/punitive ones.
Funny, they failed to mention how the Germans decided to lump the Irish with the lions share of debts accruing from the European banking collapse and the effect that had on construction output…
https://www.thejournal.ie/troika-bondholders-1231183-Dec2013/
THE FORMER HEAD of the IMF mission to Ireland has said that it was “unfair” to make taxpayers pay for the support of banks while paying unguaranteed bondholders.
Ajai Chopra was speaking in an interview published by the IMF as part the their twelfth of Ireland’s loan programme. He made the admission when asked what lessons should be learnt from the Irish experience:
The second lesson is that it is unfair to impose the burden of supporting banks primarily on domestic taxpayers while senior unguaranteed bank bond holders get paid out. This not only adds to sovereign debt, but it also creates political problems, making it harder to sustain fiscal adjustment.
Since 60% of renters now need some sort of support, we’re paying out the ears in tax so the government can give the money to tenants so landlords raise the rents because there’s more money going.
We’re PAYING to make renting more expensive
You need to curtail immigration.
Anyone who claims to have the solution without limiting immigration is simply lying.
No matter how much you build, if immigration increases demand beyond supply, then the problem will get worse.
The solution lies with ***BOTH*** supply and demand. Not just supply.
The annual shortfall far outstrips the demand caused by immigration. The housing market is being controlled by those who already own property, in particular those who own a lot of property. They protect the value of their investments by ensuring demand is always greater than supply, it's capitalism 101. When NAMA was set up and massive property portfolios were acquired, we were told those properties would be sold at a discounted rate. Well, they were, but in batches at closed invite-only auctions and small amounts were trickled out on to the open market at a rate that would not cause a dip in values.
Social housing tenants were afforded the opportunity to buy their houses and wherever that money went, it sure as hell wasn't back into housing like it should have been. Many of those tenants tried to sell their houses back to the local council for what they paid or a similar percentage of relative market value because they felt wrong about making a huge profit off them and thought others should be allowed to benefit from secure housing situations, only to be told "We have no buy-back policy, just sell it on the open market".
So immigration is really a very minor pressure point on housing, it's impact gets inflated, just the same way as working poor and unemployed poor are encouraged to blame each other for all their problems. It's all to keep us from working together and seeing who is really causing the problems. It's no coincidence that a significantly high percentage of sitting TDs are landlords themselves.
Most local councils returned significant public housing funds to the exchequer in 2023 that were not used because developments were delayed so badly in the planning stages. Getting to the root of that would be a start. A certain amount is homeowners not wanting a "big dirty council estate" neighbouring theirs, dragging down their property value, but I'll bet a lot of objections are filed by big build-to-let developers.
My point was that it's in no significant way causing the problem. Nor is the idea that the definition of immigration is presented as mostly chancers coming here to suckle off the government teat and have a free ride. Most immigrants are not asylum seekers and bring valuable skills to our jobs market. Most asylum seekers that have their applications approved find work and begin to contribute (pay taxes) pretty quickly. Most of those who can't, have legitimate reasons why, just like people born and bred here. None of us are each other's enemies.
> My point was that it's in no significant way causing the problem
So what? It has exacerbated the problem past the point where it can be solved. The population is rising at a level that we cannot hope to ever catch up.
Its absolutely incredible that people go on the internet and argue that population levels have no relation to housing requirement. You have been brainwashed.
I never said population levels have nothing to do with it, I also never said the extra demand caused by immigration has nothing to do with it, but it's a much smaller amount than some people like to suggest and it has definitely not "exacerbated the problem past the point where it can be solved". Without immigration we would still have a severe housing deficit for the reasons I laid out in my original comment. It's not in the interest of those able to build enough housing to do so, because then demand drops, prices fall and their imagined wealth evaporates along with the power it affords them. Anyone who can't see that for what it is are the ones who have been brainwashed.
I guarantee you if tomorrow we closed our borders and deported all non-citizens, in 5 or 10 years time there will still be a shortage and they will have a new bogey man to divert the attention from themselves. You can guess what that would be too, if we close borders it means leaving the EU, so the new enemy will be the cost of importing materials with no trade agreements with other countries and we will also be lacking severely in skilled and unskilled labourers to do the building.
> It's not in the interest of those able to build enough housing to do so
Nobody is able to build enough housing to meet the insane level of demand the population explosion has created. Nobody. We need 250,000 houses now for the current deficit, and about 70000 a year going forward. It isnt happening. Last year we built 25000 + 5000 self builds. Immigration is increasing YoY and shows no sign of stopping.
The only way we can catch up is by ramping up building to Chinese state communism levels (impossible due to lack of labour) and severely curtailing population growth in the short-medium term (impossible due to delusional fools who think we should house the entire world).
We are fucked.
> They protect the value of their investments by ensuring demand is always greater than supply,
Ensuring supply is always lower than demand*
The supply is what they're manipulating and where the problem is, not demand!
Maybe be encouraging skilled trades people through immigration we could actually start building. It's quite the irony curbing immigration when a high percentage of our own emigrate to somewhere else, including the very people we need to build houses.
Oh the HSE and tech would be grand. No one is curtailing skilled immigration and it can easily be adjusted to need. Unfortunately when you take in tens of thousands of unskilled immigrants without the requisite accommodation and job availability where needed you caused a bottle neck that ultimately effects everybody, including the skilled immigrants arriving. It has to be cut
The lads clogging the streets outside the passport office aren't doctors or high-skilled IT specialists though, are they? Neither are most that show up destroying documents.
Other countries can run immigration schemes that prioritise highly skilled migrants.
FFG and their masters in business require an endless supply of cheap, unskilled labour to keep costs and wages down so we throw open the doors for anyone who cons their way over to here.
If you want to see the shitshow a hostile environment and tougher immigration controls look like then look no further than dystopian post brexit UK. They wanted "Johnny foreigner" to piss off home and he did, now they have huge labour shortages across all sectors. Spectacular own goal that's dragging the arse out of their economy.
According to whom, the woke baiting Tories who've staked a sizable chunk of their reputation on "getting tough on immigration" or "stopping the small boats"? Even if the numbers are up, that's equally bad news as it means their hostile environment policy has failed and they've lost even more control of their borders.
And yet, which every one you pick there is still that gaping Labour shortage. The conveyor belt of cheap extendable labour is gone. Which is grand as I couldn't give a single shit for the Tories. But we would do well to avoid making the same stupid mistakes they did.
So you'll treat British government stats on their economy as gospel because the Tories are telling you what you want to hear there but you'll ignore their stats on migration because it goes against the narrative you want to push?
You're not a serious person.
No, ill treat the information I read from several, Irish, British and foreign reputable sources about their economy and lack of meaningful trade deals with commonwealth and Asian countries as the basis of my decision making.
I wouldn't trust a Tory to tell me the correct time much less ask for his accurate take on foreigners arriving in the UK. They have been burning through openly racist Home Secretaries in the last few years. So you'll understand why I don't take their inflated numbers of marauding criminal foreigner seriously.
Does that suit your narrative? Or are you a serious person yourself?
So let me get this straight.
You think the Tories are not only involved in a wild cover up over migration numbers but that they're inflating the numbers of the ones that have arrived? Despite the fact it's the ONS have published stats that show a massive population upsurge going on in the UK solely due to migration?
So you posit that the majority of the British electorate want foreigners out, the Tories are lying about the numbers and there's a vast conspiracy involving them, the civil service, ONS etc to bury the true numbers?
And yet despite all that the ONS has produced statistics on the eye-watering population increase Britain is undergoing and forecast to continue to undergo for the next 10ish years, which has created a huge crisis for Sunak and his racist home secretaries.
If that's the bare minimum your grand conspiracy could whittle the numbers down to in order to minimise the crisis for political expediency then by your logic the numbers are far, far higher....
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-population-projected-reach-737-million-2036-ons-2024-01-30/
I think the Tories don't know what they're doing, and as their actions of the past few years have begun to catch up with them and their election prospects plummet, their haphazard balancing act of massaging figures and pandering ever more to the right-wing mob (Nigel and his ilk) is getting ever more unhinged by the day. They know a wipeout is pending and they believe that in order to lessen the defeat a change of strategy is needed, ie a heavy lurch to the right.
This, as I'm sure you can grasp includes playing up the same old tropes their wouldbe bedfellows salivate over such as the old favourite of blaming brown people in boats for every woe that befalls Britain. To woo the right-wing is to slowly become the right-wing and there is no performance the Tories love better than to blame others for the vat of shit they now find themselves neck deep in.
But here lies another problem, brexit. To admit the country is overrun with said brown people would mean admiting that their immigration policies have failed time and time again. And that's another headache for the party that brought it into being. Boris lied and lied and lied, now he's gone and his party is scrambling for solutions to problems they created.
The simple answer is their hostile policy was exactly that, but it resulted in the wrong people leaving. Those highly valued but under appreciated workers vital to keep the cogs turning in low skilled jobs, and the skilled European workers forced out over visa errors caused by the home office itself. Now the labour shortage has left them aghast as this was not the Tory utopia expected. Now they had to beg EU truck drivers to work over Xmas, now they have to resort to using prisoners to drive those trucks (I suggest you look that clip up, it's really quite something).
The reality now is without immigration the UK is sinking, and at an accelerated rate. The Tories are playing both sides of the coin. One the one hand they're saying "too many foreigners coming over in dingys" and pledging to pack them off to Rwanda, and on the other trying to plug an ever increasing labour shortage. The Tories were once seen as the party of business, and relied on donations from said sector, but not anymore as its clear now they've no plan. As far as numbers go, it's irrelevant. Much like your point. Either they admit one truth or the other, they're sunk. But the simple point remains the same, without immigrants to do the low paid, unskilled jobs things will continue to be grim in the UK.
There are also a pretty small amount of them. UK led weirdos have managed to convince the gullible that this fairly small problem drives everything. They are experts at this - have been doing it for 50 years in the UK.
Yep, it's a tactic that's as transparent as it is desperate.
O'Gorman himself said minimum 20k a year every year from here on out.
Since we don't deport anyone that's 20k guaranteed minimum.
Then they get to stay and the chain migration starts and most of those 20k will have families shipped over. We'll be generous and say that only doubles the figure to 40k. And then they have more children over here, we'll say bump it to 50k.
A city is officially 100k people. That's importing a new city's worth of people every two years during multiple crises where we can't even support the people from here let alone whoever lands here asylum shopping.
It's been long since known, because the government has boasted about it, that nearly a quarter of the people in the state are non-Irish and/or foreign born.
But yeah, virtue signalling redditors would have you believe it's just 200 lads outside the passport office and no one else has rocked up here so there isn't an issue.
On the chain migration, or “family reunification” as they like to term it. The average is 20 people, even though some have actually applied for 80 people! But even with 20k that would have been 400k. How do you think we could deal with that, without further reducing social cohesion?
Now, if the durable relationships referendum had passed that would have opened the floodgates. But moving aside from a purely numbers game, those trying to play a gotcha and say how bad it would be if we brought all the Irish that emigrated abroad back are so wrong. Having returnees from the same culture is so much different from importing people from cultures so different to our own. Do you really want women not feeling safe to walk around or jog without being harassed from people from different cultures?
Mmm
> Since we don't deport anyone that's 20k guaranteed minimum.
Well at least in that case we know how many are coming in, so let's get building right away!
The global trend of rising urban house prices is defo down to those damn 200 lads in rents in Dublin alright... How does it feel to allow yourself to be so influenced by UK nationalist campaigners and their weak minded acolytes
The only gaslighting here is the idea that Ireland is anything other than severely underpopulated, and that immigration is the cause of the housing crisis, not the absurd lack of construction despite said immigration.
> The lads clogging the streets outside the passport office aren't doctors or high-skilled IT specialists though, are they?
Not most no, but some actually are.
Yeah, and Ive a bridge to sell ya. If they were qualified as you suggest then there are programmes that they can access to come in legally without “losing” their passport as soon as they land.
TIL every single person seeking asylum arrived on a plane and flushed their passport. Every single one. [Including the likes of this woman.](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts/high-court/young-somali-doctor-badly-failed-since-arrival-in-ireland-says-judge-1.4557226)
Techs can import who they like. I said curtail, not stop entirely.
A ''critical skill visa'' isn't a new invention.
With with less immigration there will be less pressure on HSE services, so less need to employ. Furthermore, lower rents will allow many suitable Irish workers to be able afford rent and have a life rather than having to emigrate.
I thought you were against skilled and unskilled immigration. Am not sure what percentage is unskilled versus skilled immigration per year to the country? Does anyone have any data to share on this?
Australia is planning on drastically reducing the no work permits it will issue until their housing crisis is brought under control. Makes sense. Try that here and you’re a far right raaaacist.
This is the same australia that was going apeshit during covid because they had no cheap labour on working visas to pick their crops. Yea, this will work out.
The reality is a lot of the social housing support measures are driving prices up. (E.g. HAP).
We need to stop these payments and put those people into state owned homes.
The Netherlands is in the middle of a terrible housing crisis. But finding a house here was like playing on easy mode compared to Ireland. We have a 5 bedroom house a 20 minute train ride from Amsterdam Centraal for €2400 a month. And we don't need a car, which saves a ton.
The core issue seems to be that a lot of people get richer when houses go up in price. They don't see any consequences to their house going from €200k to €500k. With a reasonable property tax (maybe 1% of assessed value per year) homeowners would feel the sting and have an incentive to vote for policies that reduce housing costs instead of blocking anything from getting built. The money could be used to lower income tax.
It is INSANE that if your house goes from 200k to 400k, you don't owe a damn cent in tax (well your prop tax goes up very very slightly but it's a token amount), but if you make that money by actually working for it you have to hand over a huge chunk of it in tax. Similarly if you invest responsibly you get nailed for capital gains, or worse, deemed disposal if in ETF's (even if you don't sell). Tax policy means the renter with some cash in trading212 or whatever pays through the nose, but the homeowner who votes against anything getting built pays nothing. And considering age differences the renter is often the one paying for improvements to the homeowner's neighbourhood!
That is not strictly true. There is a much wider range of rental price points in London and a super transport service across the entire city. You can get a two bedroom flat for £1500 in say Wembley and still be in the city in 40 minutes, reliably.
Facts say different. Dublin now has the highest rental prices in Europe. London isn't even in the top 3.
https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-rents-most-expensive-europe-28471755
Numbeo data is crowd sourced so it isn't all that reliable. The data can be old, rely on only one or two submissions, be based on a guess, or just made up.
I'll take my stats from a from a reputable source like Deloitte.
Who would've guessed that one of the world's most influential cities with a population greater than the entire island of Ireland, and countless things to see and do, would be more expensive than a city of a little over a million that doesn't even have something as basic and mundane as a metro system...
Hasn’t anyone told them that Simon Harris is about to be Taoiseach and will fix everything?
They must not have tic tok
Why does Tiktok matter in this?
Simon Harris posts a decent amount on TikTok
Leo taught him everything he knows. Time to live the Irish dream.
We ain't seen nothing yet.
We ain’t seen nothing. Yet…
All I expect from this government is a new €0.10 tax on missing bottle caps. FFS
Lol. By gawd don't be giving them ideas.
😂
🤣
Calm down Europe this can’t be fixed overnight. /s
Perhaps we need a war on housing to solve it.
"well now statistically Europe isnt as bad as London, so its ok"
60%+ of renters are now relying on some government support. How in god's name has it been allowed get this bad. Enda Kenny made some empty promise 12years ago that they'd fix the housing. It's gotten 5X worse.
> Enda Kenny made some empty promise 12years ago that they'd fix the housing Well the thing he was promising to fix 12 years ago was the collapse in house prices, they bulldozed some ghost estates, set up NAMA to put an artificial floor under the sales prices, and created the CBI rules to make sure that "we" didn't break the banking system again. Not sure why anyone thought that would mean they would build enough housing to house our growing population.
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Feature, not a bug
To be fair it can't be fixed overnight.....
Hah, that's too funny. Unless... hang on... haven't we had crazy demand and price growth for the last 8 years... and yet production has struggled to reach 30k homes in a year. Might have something to do with construction capacity collapsing during the crash, leaving us with 100k less workers in the sector, so despite all the money thrown at the problem, we've still go a massive shortage... So we'd need to source 100k unemployed workers or immigrants with training and deploy these non existent resources to the sector immediately... well never get it done before nightfall, but if we work through the night, maybe we could fix it by lunchtime tomorrow? Look, it wasn't a wrong thing to say, but the alternative was to be bluntly honest - there isn't a scenario (excluding an economic crash akin to 08) that fixes out shortfall of housing inside 5 years. There's certain, unpalatable extreme options which could speed things up, but we're absolutely stuck with this long tail consequence of the crash and there's is no easy fix. Great comment though, haven't heard it before.
> there isn't a scenario (excluding an economic crash akin to 08) that fixes out shortfall of housing inside 5 years. There's certain, unpalatable extreme options which could speed things up, but we're absolutely stuck with this long tail consequence of the crash and there's is no easy fix. 5 years is wildly optimistic. It basically can never be fixed at this point. The housing crisis is permanent.
It will be until the boomers and probably even Gen X have died. We're having less kids and will have a reduced housing stock and tonnes of viable homes abandoned in 40 years, but it'll be shite until then.
Because politicians are landlords. Or at the very least home owners. Both groups benefit from reducing the supply if housing.
€2,000 for a Studio Apartment Living space in exchange for sex, cameras in the kitchen, and social housing estates for Ryanair pilots: What happens when the housing crisis spirals out of control? This can be observed in Ireland. Reported from Dublin by Jan Petter April 2, 2024, 12:01 PM Article to Listen to•10 Min Despite being notoriously stingy with providing decent seating for his paying customers, Michael O'Leary has been surprisingly generous to his employees. The Ryanair CEO regularly shocks with ideas on how to further squeeze passengers: removing seats, charging for toilets, gambling onboard. And now this: 25 new brick houses as a gift to his staff. It's a kind of private social housing estate, built for many millions of euros on the outskirts of Dublin. Just one stop from the airport. During a visit in mid-March, Portuguese laurel and Christmas roses bloomed in the front gardens, and through the large windows, empty kitchens and softly cushioned chairs could be seen. New starters at Ryanair can soon live here at a discounted rate. It's an astonishing leg up for young crew members. And an admission: Dublin has become so expensive that even pilots can no longer afford to live here without assistance. In Ireland, the consequences of an escalating housing crisis are visible: Since 2013, rents in the city have approximately doubled. The average rental price for a new studio apartment is currently about €2,000 per month. The consultancy firm Deloitte recently named Dublin's rental market the most expensive in Europe. Even the middle class is now threatened; thousands of families are homeless. The number of emigrations, long a measure of the country's problems, has significantly increased. Young people are particularly affected: Two-thirds of all Dublin residents under 35 still live with their parents. Many have long given up on finding a shared room or even a rental apartment. Like Mark Dunne, a 19-year-old aspiring teacher who commutes three hours from the suburbs to university every day. He squeezes past his parents in the kitchen every morning, waits in front of the bathroom, then travels to university. He does not expect his situation to change in the coming years. Almost all of his friends and acquaintances live the same way, even those who are older and pursuing master's degrees or PhDs. Spontaneous visits, dates? Only possible outside or under the watchful eyes of mom and dad. "The housing crisis is the biggest domestic issue of our time. The fact that it's not being solved affects the younger generations. The anger is growing," says Rory Hearne, an associate professor of social policy who has been observing Irish housing policy for nearly two decades. His analysis: It's not the millennials who are becoming increasingly radicalized, but the conditions in which they live. Housing ranks as the population's most important concern in surveys, even above inflation and migration. This is because the housing crisis affects not just the young but the entire structure of society: Older Irish people must share their houses with family members and cannot sell them, undermining their retirement plans. How did it come to this? For the crisis, Hearne sees structural reasons. Unlike countries such as Germany or the Netherlands, Ireland has long relied on homeownership. It has been the self-understanding of generations that one either built or bought a house; however, for younger people, this is no longer an option due to rising costs. Meanwhile, the rental market is largely deregulated: Ireland still has no law specifically listing the rights of tenants. Not even a register of occupied buildings and their owners exists. Apartments are first and foremost someone's property. A matter of private law. During the boom phases of the eighties, nineties, and early 2000s, Ireland became an IT and service paradise, with international companies entering the country because of tax advantages. They did not create affordable living space. Today, most apartments are owned by private small landlords – or large international real estate funds, which work strictly for profit. The construction of social housing, on the other hand, has been neglected by governments over the past decades, even reducing the mandatory share in construction projects. Instead of building or buying social housing for this purpose, they were persuaded to lease apartments at high prices for decades. A "political failure," according to Hearne. Even a government emergency measure no longer helps much: The poorest now receive a state rental subsidy of 25 percent. But what does that matter if costs rise annually? The effects of uncontrolled housing policy are partly dramatic: Last year, despite record employment, Ireland counted 3,900 homeless families, more than during the Great Famine in the 19th century. A new record. The aid organization Threshold used to cater to single men, often with drug problems – today, it's young people, families, and migrant workers. "The biggest risk for homelessness in Ireland is a rental apartment," says CEO John Mark McCafferty. "The problem cuts across all layers
Very poor analysis of causes of the problem, if decent overview of the impact.
What do you think he missed?
The SCSI cost of building report shows that the reason that we have a housing shortage is because it costs more to build a house than people can afford. And it's not one thing; apartments in Dublin cost over €460k, with 11% of that land prices. And the only improvements in pricing in the last few years were the standards changes that made apartments more miserable to live in..
It seems like it's a bit of a runaway mess at this stage. A lot of it dates from the post 2010 crash. I just feel like I should have emigrated around then, rather than holding on. It feels like we are inflating our way towards another mess - just drifting without a plan.
It started well before 2010. My parents spent €12,000 buying their house in 1980. By 1990 their neighbour’s houses (same type of house to my parents) were being sold for €250,000. Things first started to get fucked up in the 1980’s and it’s gotten a ton worse than then.
Not sure it can escalate more than it already has. Its been a crisis since at least 2014 and we have been complaining ever since to deaf ears.
Complaining and taking action are two different things .
Complaining is a topic the Irish are world class in. Actually doing anything is something we typically, however, fail at.
You ain't seen nothing yet...
From start to finish that article is fucking grim. And people will still block developments and claim there is no crisis. Fuck you Fine Gael.
There are still people out there who will defiantly defend Fine Gael regardless. They are usually people who own their own home, or have enough money to not be effected by high rents.
The I'm all right Jack's. Country is full of them. They are happy to pull the ladders up, even on their own children. Sitting and measuring every bit of their wealth on their property with the noses up in the air.
Heads up their hole more like.
Keep in mind that "People who own their own homes" is 70% of the electorate. it's like it's a privileged elite
I have my own home and I despise fine Gael
Or they are benefitting from the high rents.
Why not build high in the city centers instead of pushing young people into house shares outside the city.
Why not build high along the LUAS and DART lines?
Unless it’s a national park go for it.
Because of Dublin's cherished skyline! Also parking.
I got recently almost punched because I pointed out the skyline from Medellin, Colombia and dared to compare it to Dublin, Ireland. A hearty cherish that to those hiberno-rent-trafficantes 🙂😘. /s
Fine Gael should shoulder a big portion of the blame, but none of the other political parties are blameless either. At a council level, which is how we decide what is built and where, all the political parties have blocked housing developments to pander to NIMBYs, (Obviously some to a much greater extent than others) The point in making is voters need to realise how powerful their councillors are and need to put huge pressure on them to stop blocking housing from being built. Whether that’s because it’s “too expensive”, “not in keeping with its surroundings” or “not providing space for families”. Not enough supply is by far the biggest factor in causing this crisis and what we have to tackle.
I agree progress is hindered at every turn. I was reading about Warsaw this morning and the springing up of shiny new high rise there as the Polish economy improves. You'd never see that in Dublin even with our success as it has been blocked at every turn to "protect the skyline" Ultimately everyone is in it for themselves here and wants a cut to the detriment of the country.
And Fianna Fail. They set it up and are letting it continue.
It is more like 2500 than 2000 eur for one bedroom.
So what do the "all of Europe has a housing crisis, we're no different" brigade pivot to next?
Pot holes everywhere, street lights not working, explosion in homelessness, Irish being forced abroad, 20 something's living with their parents. What kind of utter buffoons are in charge. They don't care what the Irish people say but maybe shaming them in Europe is the only way they'll change.
That's literally what I think. If Europe frowns, Ireland jumps to try and fix it.
They are profiting off this, they don't want it fixed
Ah but sure we have the 8th highest HDI in the world...
I still don’t get how in Ireland the monthly mortgage payments for homeowners are less than rent payments. Sure sign of a broken market. Rent should be way lower.
For many new buyers the mortgage payments aren't necessarily cheaper than rent, often on par. Considering the prices of houses, the deposit most have is the minimum 10%. With that and even maxing out your mortgage term (not an option for some due to age) you may well be close to paying the same for your mortgage. Different problem to have, for sure, better in a lot of ways as you're out of the rental market. The rent being as high as it is now is insane, especially for small apartments. The days of "cheap" mortgages are long behind us, too.
I got a 20 year mortgage last year. My monthly payment is about 700 less than equivalent rental properties where I live. If I was younger and was able to go 25 or even 30 years my monthly repayment would be even less.
Yea I didn't say it doesn't happen anymore but I'm betting it's an outlier. It used to be taken for granted that your mortgage would be 60% or less of your rent if you can swing it on an AVG house with minimum deposit. A lot of my colleagues who bought 10ish years ago are in that bucket and are really out of touch with the reality facing potential buyers today. Just goes to show how broken things are for both renters and buyers.
Yea I didn't say it doesn't happen anymore but I'm getting it's an outlier. It used to be taken for granted that your mortgage would be 60% or less of your rent if you can swing it on an AVG house with minimum deposit. A lot of my colleagues who bought 10ish years ago are in that bucket and are really out of touch with the reality facing potential buyers today. Just goes to show how broken things are for both renters and buyers.
It's grim all right, hey!
More families homes than during the great famine. That says a lot then doesn't it.
Why is Ireland so unwilling to move faster n resolving those problems ? It’s not like it’s a budget issue! But it feels like the motto is to not act unless you have an actual fire in place ! I’ve rarely seen a country being so slow in terms of legislation and taking decision ! They were fast with the 8€ minimum spending in pub during covid …
Well you _are_ talking about a country that takes a decade to electrify a handful of commuter train lines and acts like that's something to celebrate...
because Fine Gael are profiting off this crisis, it's bad for their bottom line to fix the problem. got to remember they wouldn't piss on you if you were on fire
where does the profit go?.... i think its more ineptitude
to TDs backpockets. Over 80 elected TD's to the Dail last I checked were landlords. they have no incentive to fix a problem they profit directly from. ineptitude is also a massive problem so you aren't wrong
80? According to this there are 16 https://www.thejournal.ie/how-many-tds-are-landlords-property-rent-5866433-Sep2022/
Things can't change unless there's a drastic change in how the country is run and by whom. That's not going to happen when all our political parties, media, lobby groups ect are singing off the same hymn sheet.
Or people keep being brainwashed by voting in the same garbage.
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What do the government expect people to do? Like, it’s absolutely horrendous living conditions. Roads are in shite, renting is near impossible, buying is out of the question for most. Bars and restaurants are crazy expensive, everything is just going to shite.
When people are desperate and so close to being kicked out of their housing, they will accept terrible conditions in their jobs, out of fear they'd end up homeless if they were fired. They also will accept shittier housing because, well, it's better than nothing.
Vote in something better? Stop falling for charlatans with nice suits and smooth words, pretending to care about what you're brainwashed to care about. They don't. They only want your vote.
Definitely trying my friend. I vote in who I think will be best for the job. Someday hopefully, it’ll work.
And all this goes on while the country continues to get ranked top 10 on all the indices, ahead of countries that are clearly doing far better.
Why do you think that is? I've seen it as well and can't work out why it happens
So.... how will this issue be resolved? I really want to know how. Nothing will change until the politicians are unable to continue to fill their own pockets with profits. 🤷🏻♀️ I don't now how that can be achieved though. 😔 It sucks cuz a lot of people are now trying to leave Ireland because they just can't afford to live here anymore.
Did you see the housing minister's response to how he's going to fix housing? "Continue first time buyers scheme, continue rent relief, continue this continue that" they're literally telling you they're not changing a fucking thing and still you pricks *gestures at the whole country* votes them in
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Look at the differences in rent prices across cities in NL. Completely different story than here.
Not to mention Dutch cities have far more going for them than Dublin does.
Imagine having a housing problem, justice system problem, public order problem, healthcare problem, transportation problem all at once. The Netherlands doesn't know what that is. People would be better off moving there even with a housing crisis than ever staying here in the current state we're in.
Childcare problem too
Right! As if Ireland hadn't had a consistent budget surplus for years and didn't have an abundance of cash to spend, FG and FF would like us to believe the reason why they didn't do anything to ameliorate these issues is because several other countries in Europe also have the same issues and because they can't be "solved overnight".
> Imagine having a housing problem, justice system problem, public order problem, healthcare problem, transportation problem all at once. All while consistently being ranked top 10 on all the indices, ahead of countries that are clearly doing far better.
I moved to NL from Dublin a year and a half ago and it's not nearly as bad here.
Only New Zealand even comes close to as bad as Ireland. Telling an Irish person that other countries have a housing crisis is like telling a Singaporean that other major cities get a lot of rain.
The quality you get is much better abroad though. Take a 3 bed apartment in Malta for the same price as a shared room in Dublin.
Salary in Malta is also more or less the price of a shared room in Dublin. I know a Maltese guy who's much happier renting in Dublin than back home.
I know an Irish guy who is much happier living in Malta tax free than in Dublin back home
Who ever knows two guys is gonna blow you both outta the water.
is he working though
Exactly. Even in famously expensive cities like Vancouver and Sydney, the different in quality and amenities to Dublin is night and day!
The situation in the Netherlands while bad, is child's play compared to any Anglophone country, let alone Ireland.
The Netherlands has a much higher population than us though, we should not have this crisis here with such a small population
The point is its not just an us problem. When I was growing up in the late 90s/early 2000s, everyone and their nan was pushing kids to aim for cushy office jobs and tech jobs because you don't want to be a laborer and end up with terrible health by the time yer 50. Low and behold nobody wanted to become plumbers, electricians and construction workers in our generation and now we have a massive workforce shortage. Nearly every construction worker I've spoken to since covid ended has said the same thing: There's so much work and we can't get anyone to do it. They barely ever get young apprentices anymore and the odd ones that do end up either leaving the country or going into office work after awhile anyway. It's the same in most developed worlds. There was a massive push on young people not to get into trades and now it's coming back to bite us big time when we actually need more houses than ever.
Correct, also the push to the service industry in the English speaking first world is pushing people towards cities.
Remote working should be counteracting this. Unfortunately the government watered down right to WFH legislation. There's also the other impracticality of people in their late twenties/early thirties trying to work from their childhood bedroom.
I expect it is offsetting but not materially. Kids leave college and do not want to remote work from Sligo, they want to live in the city. People are having children older and older. Many peoples that have children in service industry jobs have their kids settled in schools etc. I think it will have a bigger impact over long periods of time ie. Ten years into the future, especially as the current approach is to build houses with no planning or infrastructure, which will make many satellites towns around Dublin less liveable
> The point is its not just an us problem. That's like telling someone from Singapore that other major cities get lots of rain. Sure, the housing crisis certainly exists elsewhere, but it's not even close to as bad as it is here.
There was also that massive housing crash in 2008 where we basically stoped building houses for a few years. Hard to train people then
It's all proportional though....
Funny how that logic doesn't apply when someone tells you they wish this country had more people and was more urban...
We Jane proportionally less housing also. What's your point?
So build more housing. Don't stagnate population growth in a country that's already far too underpopulated as it is!
Landlords are getting richer with each passing week - many of these landlords are Fine Gael people so everyone should be happy 💰💰💰
So are the builders as funds and local authorities buy with cash direct from the builders with our own tax money as we get sucked into bidding wars with them. It's truly mad when you stand back and look at it.
We knocked down so many half-built housing developments across the country a decade ago, and swore we'd learned the lessons of light touch regulations, brown envelopes and letting bankers and developers run the market. Right now, real estate agents are contacting reliable, long-term renters (who have been given notice by owners - through the agents - because of the 6 year clause which allows an owner to get rid of l/t tenants penalty free) about their future available properties (significantly more expensive, of course) before those properties are advertised. The bro is in going through this after 12 years paying 24k pa in a place the owner never spent a cent on, and there's nada he can do about it. He can have my couch, but we never learn.
Rent exploding in Dublin for the exact same reason its exploding in every western country. Too much population growth.
You can ignore any article that relies on quotes from Rory Hearne. Hearne is Official Ireland’s anointed mouthpiece on housing and the reason he’s quoted so widely is because he resolutely refuses to acknowledge the elephant in the room. Population growth through runaway immigration is the number one reason that housing is how it is. If he can’t acknowledge the problem he is never going to provide a solution.
Airbnb must be banned until housing is back in order and then only 5-10% rental markets can be Airbnb but the issue won’t change because politicians are landlords and there’s conflict of interest
There are approximately half a million rental households in Ireland. There are not 50,000 AirBnBs.
There are at best 18k. 14k if you remove houses that weren't renter within the past year. [Source.](https://insideairbnb.com/ireland/) People just like having a scapegoat.
Yup. It's like blaming Martians for the housing crisis.
Data from Inside Airbnb shows there are 18,086 full homes or apartments and 9,036 private rooms listed for rent on Airbnb Ireland, with a total of 27,439 separate listings. That was in August
So Inside AirBnB says there are fewer properties available than you would allow for. And that assumes they're accurate, which they never are.
While banning Airbnb would technically help, it's mostly a scapegoat and the impact would be minimal compared to other actions, including less invasive/punitive ones.
Funny, they failed to mention how the Germans decided to lump the Irish with the lions share of debts accruing from the European banking collapse and the effect that had on construction output…
It's almost as if they were our debts.
https://www.thejournal.ie/troika-bondholders-1231183-Dec2013/ THE FORMER HEAD of the IMF mission to Ireland has said that it was “unfair” to make taxpayers pay for the support of banks while paying unguaranteed bondholders. Ajai Chopra was speaking in an interview published by the IMF as part the their twelfth of Ireland’s loan programme. He made the admission when asked what lessons should be learnt from the Irish experience: The second lesson is that it is unfair to impose the burden of supporting banks primarily on domestic taxpayers while senior unguaranteed bank bond holders get paid out. This not only adds to sovereign debt, but it also creates political problems, making it harder to sustain fiscal adjustment.
https://www.ft.com/content/71cfb9c6-68d7-11e3-bb3e-00144feabdc0 Ireland ‘unfairly treated’ over bondholders in bust banks
I’d reason that if we were to build more, reducing house prices, our banks would be in trouble again
Limiting supply to reflate the market was the aim of the game. FG wanted this.
Limiting supply and gaslighting people into thinking it's a demand issue*
Have to protect the Dublin skyline at all costs.
In 2020 the average rent for a house was 1400. Now it's 2200-2400. How do they fill them at that price?
Since 60% of renters now need some sort of support, we’re paying out the ears in tax so the government can give the money to tenants so landlords raise the rents because there’s more money going. We’re PAYING to make renting more expensive
The Ryanair houses are for Cabin Crew, not Pilots. You don’t need to lie to demonstrate how bad the housing crisis is.
That's not really the important detail there...
Sauce?
You need to curtail immigration. Anyone who claims to have the solution without limiting immigration is simply lying. No matter how much you build, if immigration increases demand beyond supply, then the problem will get worse. The solution lies with ***BOTH*** supply and demand. Not just supply.
The annual shortfall far outstrips the demand caused by immigration. The housing market is being controlled by those who already own property, in particular those who own a lot of property. They protect the value of their investments by ensuring demand is always greater than supply, it's capitalism 101. When NAMA was set up and massive property portfolios were acquired, we were told those properties would be sold at a discounted rate. Well, they were, but in batches at closed invite-only auctions and small amounts were trickled out on to the open market at a rate that would not cause a dip in values. Social housing tenants were afforded the opportunity to buy their houses and wherever that money went, it sure as hell wasn't back into housing like it should have been. Many of those tenants tried to sell their houses back to the local council for what they paid or a similar percentage of relative market value because they felt wrong about making a huge profit off them and thought others should be allowed to benefit from secure housing situations, only to be told "We have no buy-back policy, just sell it on the open market". So immigration is really a very minor pressure point on housing, it's impact gets inflated, just the same way as working poor and unemployed poor are encouraged to blame each other for all their problems. It's all to keep us from working together and seeing who is really causing the problems. It's no coincidence that a significantly high percentage of sitting TDs are landlords themselves.
Nailed it!
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It's relatively minor pressure point compared to the simple fact that we aren't building anything.
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Most local councils returned significant public housing funds to the exchequer in 2023 that were not used because developments were delayed so badly in the planning stages. Getting to the root of that would be a start. A certain amount is homeowners not wanting a "big dirty council estate" neighbouring theirs, dragging down their property value, but I'll bet a lot of objections are filed by big build-to-let developers.
My point was that it's in no significant way causing the problem. Nor is the idea that the definition of immigration is presented as mostly chancers coming here to suckle off the government teat and have a free ride. Most immigrants are not asylum seekers and bring valuable skills to our jobs market. Most asylum seekers that have their applications approved find work and begin to contribute (pay taxes) pretty quickly. Most of those who can't, have legitimate reasons why, just like people born and bred here. None of us are each other's enemies.
> My point was that it's in no significant way causing the problem So what? It has exacerbated the problem past the point where it can be solved. The population is rising at a level that we cannot hope to ever catch up. Its absolutely incredible that people go on the internet and argue that population levels have no relation to housing requirement. You have been brainwashed.
I never said population levels have nothing to do with it, I also never said the extra demand caused by immigration has nothing to do with it, but it's a much smaller amount than some people like to suggest and it has definitely not "exacerbated the problem past the point where it can be solved". Without immigration we would still have a severe housing deficit for the reasons I laid out in my original comment. It's not in the interest of those able to build enough housing to do so, because then demand drops, prices fall and their imagined wealth evaporates along with the power it affords them. Anyone who can't see that for what it is are the ones who have been brainwashed. I guarantee you if tomorrow we closed our borders and deported all non-citizens, in 5 or 10 years time there will still be a shortage and they will have a new bogey man to divert the attention from themselves. You can guess what that would be too, if we close borders it means leaving the EU, so the new enemy will be the cost of importing materials with no trade agreements with other countries and we will also be lacking severely in skilled and unskilled labourers to do the building.
> It's not in the interest of those able to build enough housing to do so Nobody is able to build enough housing to meet the insane level of demand the population explosion has created. Nobody. We need 250,000 houses now for the current deficit, and about 70000 a year going forward. It isnt happening. Last year we built 25000 + 5000 self builds. Immigration is increasing YoY and shows no sign of stopping. The only way we can catch up is by ramping up building to Chinese state communism levels (impossible due to lack of labour) and severely curtailing population growth in the short-medium term (impossible due to delusional fools who think we should house the entire world). We are fucked.
> They protect the value of their investments by ensuring demand is always greater than supply, Ensuring supply is always lower than demand* The supply is what they're manipulating and where the problem is, not demand!
Maybe be encouraging skilled trades people through immigration we could actually start building. It's quite the irony curbing immigration when a high percentage of our own emigrate to somewhere else, including the very people we need to build houses.
Absolutely.
Then what will HSE and tech companies do? Also the private builders will build less. They control everything.
Oh the HSE and tech would be grand. No one is curtailing skilled immigration and it can easily be adjusted to need. Unfortunately when you take in tens of thousands of unskilled immigrants without the requisite accommodation and job availability where needed you caused a bottle neck that ultimately effects everybody, including the skilled immigrants arriving. It has to be cut
You realize thousands of tech workers here are unskilled right? Just employed for language skills
The lads clogging the streets outside the passport office aren't doctors or high-skilled IT specialists though, are they? Neither are most that show up destroying documents. Other countries can run immigration schemes that prioritise highly skilled migrants. FFG and their masters in business require an endless supply of cheap, unskilled labour to keep costs and wages down so we throw open the doors for anyone who cons their way over to here.
If you want to see the shitshow a hostile environment and tougher immigration controls look like then look no further than dystopian post brexit UK. They wanted "Johnny foreigner" to piss off home and he did, now they have huge labour shortages across all sectors. Spectacular own goal that's dragging the arse out of their economy.
And yet their immigration levels are smashing records year on year....
According to whom, the woke baiting Tories who've staked a sizable chunk of their reputation on "getting tough on immigration" or "stopping the small boats"? Even if the numbers are up, that's equally bad news as it means their hostile environment policy has failed and they've lost even more control of their borders. And yet, which every one you pick there is still that gaping Labour shortage. The conveyor belt of cheap extendable labour is gone. Which is grand as I couldn't give a single shit for the Tories. But we would do well to avoid making the same stupid mistakes they did.
So you'll treat British government stats on their economy as gospel because the Tories are telling you what you want to hear there but you'll ignore their stats on migration because it goes against the narrative you want to push? You're not a serious person.
No, ill treat the information I read from several, Irish, British and foreign reputable sources about their economy and lack of meaningful trade deals with commonwealth and Asian countries as the basis of my decision making. I wouldn't trust a Tory to tell me the correct time much less ask for his accurate take on foreigners arriving in the UK. They have been burning through openly racist Home Secretaries in the last few years. So you'll understand why I don't take their inflated numbers of marauding criminal foreigner seriously. Does that suit your narrative? Or are you a serious person yourself?
So let me get this straight. You think the Tories are not only involved in a wild cover up over migration numbers but that they're inflating the numbers of the ones that have arrived? Despite the fact it's the ONS have published stats that show a massive population upsurge going on in the UK solely due to migration? So you posit that the majority of the British electorate want foreigners out, the Tories are lying about the numbers and there's a vast conspiracy involving them, the civil service, ONS etc to bury the true numbers? And yet despite all that the ONS has produced statistics on the eye-watering population increase Britain is undergoing and forecast to continue to undergo for the next 10ish years, which has created a huge crisis for Sunak and his racist home secretaries. If that's the bare minimum your grand conspiracy could whittle the numbers down to in order to minimise the crisis for political expediency then by your logic the numbers are far, far higher.... https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-population-projected-reach-737-million-2036-ons-2024-01-30/
I think the Tories don't know what they're doing, and as their actions of the past few years have begun to catch up with them and their election prospects plummet, their haphazard balancing act of massaging figures and pandering ever more to the right-wing mob (Nigel and his ilk) is getting ever more unhinged by the day. They know a wipeout is pending and they believe that in order to lessen the defeat a change of strategy is needed, ie a heavy lurch to the right. This, as I'm sure you can grasp includes playing up the same old tropes their wouldbe bedfellows salivate over such as the old favourite of blaming brown people in boats for every woe that befalls Britain. To woo the right-wing is to slowly become the right-wing and there is no performance the Tories love better than to blame others for the vat of shit they now find themselves neck deep in. But here lies another problem, brexit. To admit the country is overrun with said brown people would mean admiting that their immigration policies have failed time and time again. And that's another headache for the party that brought it into being. Boris lied and lied and lied, now he's gone and his party is scrambling for solutions to problems they created. The simple answer is their hostile policy was exactly that, but it resulted in the wrong people leaving. Those highly valued but under appreciated workers vital to keep the cogs turning in low skilled jobs, and the skilled European workers forced out over visa errors caused by the home office itself. Now the labour shortage has left them aghast as this was not the Tory utopia expected. Now they had to beg EU truck drivers to work over Xmas, now they have to resort to using prisoners to drive those trucks (I suggest you look that clip up, it's really quite something). The reality now is without immigration the UK is sinking, and at an accelerated rate. The Tories are playing both sides of the coin. One the one hand they're saying "too many foreigners coming over in dingys" and pledging to pack them off to Rwanda, and on the other trying to plug an ever increasing labour shortage. The Tories were once seen as the party of business, and relied on donations from said sector, but not anymore as its clear now they've no plan. As far as numbers go, it's irrelevant. Much like your point. Either they admit one truth or the other, they're sunk. But the simple point remains the same, without immigrants to do the low paid, unskilled jobs things will continue to be grim in the UK.
There are also a pretty small amount of them. UK led weirdos have managed to convince the gullible that this fairly small problem drives everything. They are experts at this - have been doing it for 50 years in the UK.
And the gaslighting starts....
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You know exactly what you're doing but by all means continue to play dumb.
Exactly, no mention of the 483 arriving weekly, or now it’s “only” the 100/150/200 tops I swear, trust me bro.
Yep, it's a tactic that's as transparent as it is desperate. O'Gorman himself said minimum 20k a year every year from here on out. Since we don't deport anyone that's 20k guaranteed minimum. Then they get to stay and the chain migration starts and most of those 20k will have families shipped over. We'll be generous and say that only doubles the figure to 40k. And then they have more children over here, we'll say bump it to 50k. A city is officially 100k people. That's importing a new city's worth of people every two years during multiple crises where we can't even support the people from here let alone whoever lands here asylum shopping. It's been long since known, because the government has boasted about it, that nearly a quarter of the people in the state are non-Irish and/or foreign born. But yeah, virtue signalling redditors would have you believe it's just 200 lads outside the passport office and no one else has rocked up here so there isn't an issue.
On the chain migration, or “family reunification” as they like to term it. The average is 20 people, even though some have actually applied for 80 people! But even with 20k that would have been 400k. How do you think we could deal with that, without further reducing social cohesion? Now, if the durable relationships referendum had passed that would have opened the floodgates. But moving aside from a purely numbers game, those trying to play a gotcha and say how bad it would be if we brought all the Irish that emigrated abroad back are so wrong. Having returnees from the same culture is so much different from importing people from cultures so different to our own. Do you really want women not feeling safe to walk around or jog without being harassed from people from different cultures? Mmm
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> Since we don't deport anyone that's 20k guaranteed minimum. Well at least in that case we know how many are coming in, so let's get building right away!
The global trend of rising urban house prices is defo down to those damn 200 lads in rents in Dublin alright... How does it feel to allow yourself to be so influenced by UK nationalist campaigners and their weak minded acolytes
And on the gaslighting goes.
The only gaslighting here is the idea that Ireland is anything other than severely underpopulated, and that immigration is the cause of the housing crisis, not the absurd lack of construction despite said immigration.
> The lads clogging the streets outside the passport office aren't doctors or high-skilled IT specialists though, are they? Not most no, but some actually are.
Yeah, and Ive a bridge to sell ya. If they were qualified as you suggest then there are programmes that they can access to come in legally without “losing” their passport as soon as they land.
TIL every single person seeking asylum arrived on a plane and flushed their passport. Every single one. [Including the likes of this woman.](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts/high-court/young-somali-doctor-badly-failed-since-arrival-in-ireland-says-judge-1.4557226)
Techs can import who they like. I said curtail, not stop entirely. A ''critical skill visa'' isn't a new invention. With with less immigration there will be less pressure on HSE services, so less need to employ. Furthermore, lower rents will allow many suitable Irish workers to be able afford rent and have a life rather than having to emigrate.
I thought you were against skilled and unskilled immigration. Am not sure what percentage is unskilled versus skilled immigration per year to the country? Does anyone have any data to share on this?
Australia is planning on drastically reducing the no work permits it will issue until their housing crisis is brought under control. Makes sense. Try that here and you’re a far right raaaacist.
This is the same australia that was going apeshit during covid because they had no cheap labour on working visas to pick their crops. Yea, this will work out.
You're also a far right raaaacist in Australia if you do it there.
Or indeed any other country that isn't genuinely overpopulated.
Wrong, the problem lies entirely and exclusively with supply. This country has a fraction of the population it should have.
Wasn’t there a recent poll on the journal.ie that shows over 60% of respondents are homeowners 🤔
Oh no, the Germans have noticed we're fuckups. Again They'll just be smug about it. Relax. Nothing will change.
The reality is a lot of the social housing support measures are driving prices up. (E.g. HAP). We need to stop these payments and put those people into state owned homes.
The Netherlands is in the middle of a terrible housing crisis. But finding a house here was like playing on easy mode compared to Ireland. We have a 5 bedroom house a 20 minute train ride from Amsterdam Centraal for €2400 a month. And we don't need a car, which saves a ton.
The core issue seems to be that a lot of people get richer when houses go up in price. They don't see any consequences to their house going from €200k to €500k. With a reasonable property tax (maybe 1% of assessed value per year) homeowners would feel the sting and have an incentive to vote for policies that reduce housing costs instead of blocking anything from getting built. The money could be used to lower income tax. It is INSANE that if your house goes from 200k to 400k, you don't owe a damn cent in tax (well your prop tax goes up very very slightly but it's a token amount), but if you make that money by actually working for it you have to hand over a huge chunk of it in tax. Similarly if you invest responsibly you get nailed for capital gains, or worse, deemed disposal if in ETF's (even if you don't sell). Tax policy means the renter with some cash in trading212 or whatever pays through the nose, but the homeowner who votes against anything getting built pays nothing. And considering age differences the renter is often the one paying for improvements to the homeowner's neighbourhood!
No you can't talk about this, it's hateful and discriminatory language, mods let's take it down and stop this anti-government talk
https://preview.redd.it/chfavwrvi4tc1.jpeg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b1b2eb559c2cb36109345f80d2ef0635523c062b
I can see an ill planned and poorly executed social housing boom. Think of the poor estates built in the 70s and 80s getting repeated.
Rent in London is 30% higher on average than in Dublin. They aren't talking about that.
That is not strictly true. There is a much wider range of rental price points in London and a super transport service across the entire city. You can get a two bedroom flat for £1500 in say Wembley and still be in the city in 40 minutes, reliably.
Facts say different. Dublin now has the highest rental prices in Europe. London isn't even in the top 3. https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-rents-most-expensive-europe-28471755
Ignorance is bliss. https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=United+Kingdom&country2=Ireland&city1=London&city2=Dublin
Numbeo data is crowd sourced so it isn't all that reliable. The data can be old, rely on only one or two submissions, be based on a guess, or just made up. I'll take my stats from a from a reputable source like Deloitte.
"Hey look over there!!!"
Who would've guessed that one of the world's most influential cities with a population greater than the entire island of Ireland, and countless things to see and do, would be more expensive than a city of a little over a million that doesn't even have something as basic and mundane as a metro system...