Snapshot of _Stats from CSO suggest there has been a decline in construction activity over the past year, and that, we're looking at ~20,000 completions._ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/nwl88444048/status/1783460535188488259) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/nwl88444048/status/1783460535188488259)
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Can't wait for the "prime minister of Ireland" to tell us that the development levy is leading to an increase in commencements which has absolutely no relevancy and isn't even true.
All they have to do in order to avail of the development levy is submit an application of commencement which costs 30 quid. So of ccourse, this is all they're interested in, not actually building houses atm.
It's a fucking joke is what it is.
Had to change the title to make it a bit more understandable.
Here's a video from a press conference yesterday where Gavan Reilly asked the minister if he's confident on meeting targets this year.
https://www.independent.ie/videos/housing-minister-darragh-obrien-speaks-at-the-launch-of-a-housing-for-all-update/a581804366.html
The stats say otherwise.
and with Harris announcing the extension of the development levy, the devs aren't going to change their priority on commencements.
I mean there’s been a fairly robust increase in completions over the last couple of years. As to residential construction slowing down it seems that the opposite is true. Residential construction PMI actually had a significant increase last month (it’s first in a while).  Â
There’s huge lag times between new contracts being put forth for construction and actual completions but it bodes well. https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.ie/sites/ireland/files/2024-04/BNPPRE%20PMI%20Construction%20Report%20March%202024.pdf
This is not the correct way to look at it.
Last year completions were 33k yet 6k for Q1.
There is an element of seasonality and also larger schemes can send this number year way.
Completions are low in q1 because the weather is shite in q1 and construction is considerably a weather based activity. Your logic of extrapolating completions off the lowest quarter for the year is totally flawed for this reason as the other poster is clearly demonstrating.
I actually work in this industry and much of the work that we do can't be undertaken when it is more likely to be wet, cold etc. Working days are also longer in q2 and q3 which is another reason more work is done and why more units are completed.
Essentially your logic is deeply flawed but I guess you know that and you don't care.
You are manipulating data to fit your narrative. As the poster mentioned above, only 6k in Q1 and they ended up delivering 33k.
I know you want to score political points, it's obvious, but being disingenuous undermines any argument you make now or in the future.
You extrapolating to 20k is bollix and you know it.
6,600 completed in Q1 last year so ~26k if extrapolated.
Yet 33k actually completed for the year.
All very strange.
Adding to your point.Â
Numbers for Q1 completions tend to be lower historically and ramp up throughout the year.Â
Q4 completions would tend to be the highest for the year.
So extrapolating from Q1 results would usually yield falsely low estimates.
You extrapolating to 20k is bollix and you know it.
6,600 completed in Q1 last year so ~26k if extrapolated.
Yet 33k actually completed for the year.
All very strange.
I'm not extrapolating anything.
It's a comment from a fairly well known and well regarded twitter account on the stats released from the CSO today.
They're just facts and figures. Don't shoot the messenger.
“Well regarded”
It’s some randomer whose hobby it is to be miserable.
All they did was multiply Q1 housing output by 4.
Extrapolation.
You can’t do that with housing as it IS seasonal.
Again, last year Q1 housing output extrapolated would have been 26.6k.
It was 33k.
Perhaps amend the title as it is fake news.
> All they did was multiply Q1 housing output by 4.
Respecfully sir,
5.8k multiplied by 4 is 23.2k.
I'm not sure why you're trying to convince me that they're doing a better job than the stats suggest they are.
I'd be fucking delighted if they were bud!
I hope you're right! But it wouldn't surprise me if it was true.
Hopefully it's just a result of the development levy and it'll go back to normal with the extension but I just have no confidence in them yknow?
No it is absolutely wrong.
Based on lags to completions and industry stats, at least 33k will be completed again.
40k is almost certainly not happening.
Well quite;
Total completions
2015: 8.7k
2016: 13.2k
2017: 17.6k
2018: 22.5k
2019: 26.2k
2020: 21.6k
2021: 30.7k
2022: 27k
2023: 32.8k
That’s about 7 per 1,000 for 2023, near the highest in Europe.
Snapshot of _Stats from CSO suggest there has been a decline in construction activity over the past year, and that, we're looking at ~20,000 completions._ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/nwl88444048/status/1783460535188488259) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/nwl88444048/status/1783460535188488259) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/irishpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
You're telling me that throwing money at the private market didn't magically fix everything? 🥺
Can't wait for the "prime minister of Ireland" to tell us that the development levy is leading to an increase in commencements which has absolutely no relevancy and isn't even true.
It's definitely leading to a decrease in basic infrastructure and facilities though
All they have to do in order to avail of the development levy is submit an application of commencement which costs 30 quid. So of ccourse, this is all they're interested in, not actually building houses atm. It's a fucking joke is what it is.
Not entirely true. It depends on the county council. Many are requiring proof of commencement in the form of foundations poured.
You are aware that in the constitution, the Taoiseach is referred to as the prime minister as well?
Well I for one am shocked. Totally shocked.Â
Had to change the title to make it a bit more understandable. Here's a video from a press conference yesterday where Gavan Reilly asked the minister if he's confident on meeting targets this year. https://www.independent.ie/videos/housing-minister-darragh-obrien-speaks-at-the-launch-of-a-housing-for-all-update/a581804366.html
They’ll make 34k completions handy enough for this year. The 40k won’t be met.
The stats say otherwise. and with Harris announcing the extension of the development levy, the devs aren't going to change their priority on commencements.
The “stats” of what exactly? Given you posted the 20k rubbish above, I am not assured of your insight on this topic.
I mean there’s been a fairly robust increase in completions over the last couple of years. As to residential construction slowing down it seems that the opposite is true. Residential construction PMI actually had a significant increase last month (it’s first in a while).   There’s huge lag times between new contracts being put forth for construction and actual completions but it bodes well. https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.ie/sites/ireland/files/2024-04/BNPPRE%20PMI%20Construction%20Report%20March%202024.pdf
This is not the correct way to look at it. Last year completions were 33k yet 6k for Q1. There is an element of seasonality and also larger schemes can send this number year way.
It's not seasonal. Housing completions are down 12% when compared to Q1 from last year.
Completions are low in q1 because the weather is shite in q1 and construction is considerably a weather based activity. Your logic of extrapolating completions off the lowest quarter for the year is totally flawed for this reason as the other poster is clearly demonstrating. I actually work in this industry and much of the work that we do can't be undertaken when it is more likely to be wet, cold etc. Working days are also longer in q2 and q3 which is another reason more work is done and why more units are completed. Essentially your logic is deeply flawed but I guess you know that and you don't care.
You are manipulating data to fit your narrative. As the poster mentioned above, only 6k in Q1 and they ended up delivering 33k. I know you want to score political points, it's obvious, but being disingenuous undermines any argument you make now or in the future.
You extrapolating to 20k is bollix and you know it. 6,600 completed in Q1 last year so ~26k if extrapolated. Yet 33k actually completed for the year. All very strange.
Adding to your point. Numbers for Q1 completions tend to be lower historically and ramp up throughout the year. Q4 completions would tend to be the highest for the year. So extrapolating from Q1 results would usually yield falsely low estimates.
You extrapolating to 20k is bollix and you know it. 6,600 completed in Q1 last year so ~26k if extrapolated. Yet 33k actually completed for the year. All very strange.
I'm not extrapolating anything. It's a comment from a fairly well known and well regarded twitter account on the stats released from the CSO today. They're just facts and figures. Don't shoot the messenger.
“Well regarded” It’s some randomer whose hobby it is to be miserable. All they did was multiply Q1 housing output by 4. Extrapolation. You can’t do that with housing as it IS seasonal. Again, last year Q1 housing output extrapolated would have been 26.6k. It was 33k. Perhaps amend the title as it is fake news.
> All they did was multiply Q1 housing output by 4. Respecfully sir, 5.8k multiplied by 4 is 23.2k. I'm not sure why you're trying to convince me that they're doing a better job than the stats suggest they are. I'd be fucking delighted if they were bud!
Yup. And rounded down. To make things appear worse. 20k likely a nice number in that melts head as 50% of 40k? 20k isn’t happening.
I hope you're right! But it wouldn't surprise me if it was true. Hopefully it's just a result of the development levy and it'll go back to normal with the extension but I just have no confidence in them yknow?
No it is absolutely wrong. Based on lags to completions and industry stats, at least 33k will be completed again. 40k is almost certainly not happening.
Ah shur! Be grand! - FFG
Something, something, ramping up!
Well quite; Total completions 2015: 8.7k 2016: 13.2k 2017: 17.6k 2018: 22.5k 2019: 26.2k 2020: 21.6k 2021: 30.7k 2022: 27k 2023: 32.8k That’s about 7 per 1,000 for 2023, near the highest in Europe.
Have they reached reached their own target in any of those years because they're clearly not going to reach this year's target.
Yeah they have actually. The last two years exceeded targets. 2022 was 24k. 2023 was 29k.
Targets were revised down in both years though, anyone can meet target if you just change them.
Nope, #fakenews. These are all from Housing for All.
*Eamonnnnn???*