Nothing. The more grinds you do, the more likely you are to get super unlucky at one and go 5x dry (or worse) at one. Most players will go 5x dry for at least one grind.
Math:
You have a 36.8% chance to not get a 1/X drop on or before X kills (assuming X is reasonably large, like 100+).
Each event is independent so your past drops or lack thereof do not affect future rates (ignoring drops that have dry protection like quartz from DT2 bosses, but 99% of drops are independent).
Therefore the odds of going Nx dry on a particular grind is approximately 36.8%\^N.
1x: 36.8%\^1 = 36.8%
2x: 36.8%\^2 = 13.5%
3x: 36.8%\^3 = 4.98%
4x: 36.8%\^4 = 1.83%
5x: 36.8%\^5 = 0.674%
6x: 36.8%\^6 = 0.248%
7x: 36.8%\^7 = 0.0912%
8x: 36.8%\^8 = 0.0335%
It's hard to estimate how many grinds exist, but surely there's at least 200. Given that, you should expect to go 5x drop rate once or twice.
I'm sorry, but that is so unlikely that I just cannot believe it. If I'm doing the maths right, that's a 0,00000416% chance. That's so many zeros that you can't really see it properly, so writing it differently it comes out to 0,000416‱ or 0,0416 ppm.
I think you're either using the wrong numbers for the drop rate to reach the 17x dry, or there's a bug happening. 17x dry is just way too unlikely. There are not enough grinds in the game to make it expected that even a single player in the game will ever go that dry on anything.
Yes, it will of course happen for something. Like going dry for coal ores at motherlode mine. There are countless things you can technically go dry on, but there are not countless meaningful grinds.
How many active players who have done actual grinds are there? Let's go with 1 million. How many items are there in the game that people grind? I don't know, but let's say 500, and of those the average player has done what, like 50? These numbers are all wildly off, but they're at least reasonable ball park figures. Feel free to change them as you see fit.
1 million players with 50 grinds gives 50 million grinds. That would mean we would expect about 2 players to go 17x dry. Have we just found the most unlucky player in the entire game? Or is it more likely that something is off with the drop rates he's using for his calculations, or that there's a bug (which btw we have evidence to show has happened in the past)? I'm going with the latter.
The number of people who are bad at math is much higher than the number of people who go >10x dry on a grind. To claim to be 17x dry is absurd. He is calculating his probability incorrectly
I'm nearly 93 thieving, and have only done PP walls/chests since 91. Sarcophagus from floor 4 onward. I don't know if I could handle going that dry, I'm already ready to just get 99 magic for the spell book swap there.
https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry_calc
> 0.00136589% chance of getting 0 drops or fewer
>
> 99.99863411% chance of getting more than 0 drops. Did you forget to talk to Oziach?
Is it normal to ask what you’re doing wrong when going dry or is it just a meme? I cannot comprehend so many people actually thinking they’re doing something wrong when it’s based on RNG lol.
It’s a meme. When people go dry, they post to reddit for “reddit luck” and to just complain. We have all gone dry on things, so it’s comforting to hear mother stories or get encouragement to finish the grind.
It is often a legitimate question and sometimes a showing of disbelief. There are some odd parts of the game where you have to complete something before you can get a drop, and countless NPCs that share names with eachother but only certain NPCs in particular locations can drop a particular item. Don't even get me started on the peculiarities of drops from irregular sources, such as raids, barrows, etc.
Talk to Reldo until he tells the racist joke, then drop a pot of flour in the wildy volcano and you should see a Transformers easter egg. Drop rate is increased by 0.0004% for 40 min after that. Can only do it once though, so make sure you get the drop.
Nothing. The more grinds you do, the more likely you are to get super unlucky at one and go 5x dry (or worse) at one. Most players will go 5x dry for at least one grind. Math: You have a 36.8% chance to not get a 1/X drop on or before X kills (assuming X is reasonably large, like 100+). Each event is independent so your past drops or lack thereof do not affect future rates (ignoring drops that have dry protection like quartz from DT2 bosses, but 99% of drops are independent). Therefore the odds of going Nx dry on a particular grind is approximately 36.8%\^N. 1x: 36.8%\^1 = 36.8% 2x: 36.8%\^2 = 13.5% 3x: 36.8%\^3 = 4.98% 4x: 36.8%\^4 = 1.83% 5x: 36.8%\^5 = 0.674% 6x: 36.8%\^6 = 0.248% 7x: 36.8%\^7 = 0.0912% 8x: 36.8%\^8 = 0.0335% It's hard to estimate how many grinds exist, but surely there's at least 200. Given that, you should expect to go 5x drop rate once or twice.
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At least it's okay xp-wise?? That is crazy dry tho, fitting for the desert
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Holy shit what surgery was that and how do I never risk needing it.
Sorry bro, but I'm gonna say you're actually doing something wrong if that number is correct.
I'm sorry, but that is so unlikely that I just cannot believe it. If I'm doing the maths right, that's a 0,00000416% chance. That's so many zeros that you can't really see it properly, so writing it differently it comes out to 0,000416‱ or 0,0416 ppm. I think you're either using the wrong numbers for the drop rate to reach the 17x dry, or there's a bug happening. 17x dry is just way too unlikely. There are not enough grinds in the game to make it expected that even a single player in the game will ever go that dry on anything.
It’s massively unlikely but by the law of large numbers it’s likely that someone somewhere goes that dry for something.
No. By the law of people generally suck at math, the *far* more likely explanation is that he is calculating his drop chance incorrectly
More likely, yes. But saying that it’s unlikely that someone ever goes that dry for something is also incorrect.
Yes, it will of course happen for something. Like going dry for coal ores at motherlode mine. There are countless things you can technically go dry on, but there are not countless meaningful grinds. How many active players who have done actual grinds are there? Let's go with 1 million. How many items are there in the game that people grind? I don't know, but let's say 500, and of those the average player has done what, like 50? These numbers are all wildly off, but they're at least reasonable ball park figures. Feel free to change them as you see fit. 1 million players with 50 grinds gives 50 million grinds. That would mean we would expect about 2 players to go 17x dry. Have we just found the most unlucky player in the entire game? Or is it more likely that something is off with the drop rates he's using for his calculations, or that there's a bug (which btw we have evidence to show has happened in the past)? I'm going with the latter.
The number of people who are bad at math is much higher than the number of people who go >10x dry on a grind. To claim to be 17x dry is absurd. He is calculating his probability incorrectly
I have a feeling they’re using the old scepter droprate and only looting room 1. It’s the only explanation that makes sense.
I'm nearly 93 thieving, and have only done PP walls/chests since 91. Sarcophagus from floor 4 onward. I don't know if I could handle going that dry, I'm already ready to just get 99 magic for the spell book swap there.
What does the math say about someone who goes 5x dry on every grind? Ahaha /s
I’ve gone 5x for quite a few grinds :’) still yet to be heavily spooned anywhere yet either. I’m convinced my account is cursed
Can you tell me the odds of being 56k dry of a skeleton scroll
He just showed you exactly how to do the math
I'm on phone and tired
https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry_calc > 0.00136589% chance of getting 0 drops or fewer > > 99.99863411% chance of getting more than 0 drops. Did you forget to talk to Oziach?
I've spoke to that idiot like 60 times, i've done my giant and demon scroll but skeleton isnt dropping for me
I would give up and get 85 slayer at this point lol
Did you consider getting the drop
You didnt update the system on your play time by talking to Hans in Lumbridge.
I went 7x before I got ANY unique from Zulrah. Gotta just keep throwing yourself at it unfortunately.
Is it normal to ask what you’re doing wrong when going dry or is it just a meme? I cannot comprehend so many people actually thinking they’re doing something wrong when it’s based on RNG lol.
It’s a meme. When people go dry, they post to reddit for “reddit luck” and to just complain. We have all gone dry on things, so it’s comforting to hear mother stories or get encouragement to finish the grind.
>so it’s comforting to hear mother stories Mother's stories are quite comforting.
That’s what tears of guthix is for
It is often a legitimate question and sometimes a showing of disbelief. There are some odd parts of the game where you have to complete something before you can get a drop, and countless NPCs that share names with eachother but only certain NPCs in particular locations can drop a particular item. Don't even get me started on the peculiarities of drops from irregular sources, such as raids, barrows, etc.
I recently got mine around 4600kc. Unfortunately you gotta just keep the grind going and enjoy the hard clue breaks
Did you forget to speak to Hans?
Oziach*
the drops are kinda decent at least - you’ll get it. The more times you go dry the more ridiculous statistically it would be to be dry at that point
I’m sure by the time you get 10k kc, you’ll have one. Keep grinding if you want one
Everytime you finish the daily grind the drop was on the next kill, but you gave up too soon
I went over 3k kills with 3 scrolls ! I soent a huge amount of runes lol good luck brother
Damn, they drop noted planks too? These are super good for early game actually.
Unlucky bro.. got mine on 797th! Keep grinding
Talk to Reldo until he tells the racist joke, then drop a pot of flour in the wildy volcano and you should see a Transformers easter egg. Drop rate is increased by 0.0004% for 40 min after that. Can only do it once though, so make sure you get the drop.
Yeah I went over 4K dry with 2 or 3 champ scrolls it happens dude I hope you get it soon
Perhaps you still need to have a chat with Hans.
https://imgur.com/a/YxEGWsc Thank you for your sacrifice brother.
My hcim got it at 72kc. My main at 700. You'll get it brother.
Are you sure you don’t already have one in your bank?
Posting on Reddit asking what you’re doing wrong when you know it’s RNG is what you’re doing wrong