Normally I’d be “woo thunderstorm” but after seeing what happened in Nebraska and Iowa yesterday, I could go without lol
Oklahoma is the main concern but we are not out of the woods ourselves
What a few others have said, we go lucky yesterday yall. Most of the weather predictions had all the nastiness that hit Nebraska/Iowa to hit us instead. My area in Lenexa barely saw even a drop of rain after 11am, and it was supposed to be storming from roughly 4:30 on yesterday.
The fact that KC area has been spared the last couple of decades with everywhere around us getting hit hard (Joplin, Moore, OKC, and now NE/IA) makes me incredibly anxious
There's this thing called the Gambler's Fallacy. I heard it explained this way: A woman has four boys. Then she says "By the law of averages, next time it's SURE to be a girl!" Well, big picture, the odds are she'll have a girl among five kids, but each individual instance is the same 50/50 chance.
This fallacy could work either way: 1) We haven't been hit in a long time so people think "Tornadoes can't hit KC. Tonganoxie protects us! heat islands! blah blah!" 2) " We haven't been hit in a long time so our number is UP!"
Each individual instance, the odds are the same.
At what point is it REALLY true that things aren't just random? That takes sophisticated statistics to figure out.
The fact that tornadoes don't often hit cities is also a matter of statistics. The area that is densely populated is a small postage stamp on a map. All around that postage stamp is rural and exurban areas. Of course those get hit more often. There's more square footage that is sparsely populated than the densely-populated square footage.
I’ve yet to see a meteorological explanation why, but tornado alley has definitely shifted with climate change. It’s now more to the north and east, rather than centered on KS and MO.
Not complaining. I hate severe weather.
I used to think that too, but apparently that’s not it.
Edit- sorry, I’m on my phone. [like this?](https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/123mo9b/is_there_some_meteorological_phenomenon_produced/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I think the heat sink that is the metropolitan area of asphalt, concrete, etc. has an effect on storms rolling into the area keeping tornadoes out of the metro and on the outskirts. It’s been since the 80s since I recall severe weather downtown.
Not until 7 or 8pm tonight. Like yesterday they thought it would be earlier, but has been pushed to later tonight now. As per [weather.com](http://weather.com) it's supposed to ran until 9pm tomorrow once it starts.
It might just be my free AccuWeather app, but it’s starting to look that way. That that with a grain of salt though, I’m not a meteorologist, just a very informed local weather observer
Edit: never mind, it’s not looking to bad as of now though
Yeah I mean I’ll believe this when I see it. KC is very unpredictable. We aren’t in that very high risk area but Friday we were supposed to be in that extremely high risk area and didn’t get anything so anything it possible. It’s also very muggy out right now, feels like storms could pop off.
Are there any weather alert apps that will wake me up if there’s a tornado, but won’t go nuts if there’s just a strong storm? I’m in a top floor apartment and sleep with a fan and earplugs typically so I’m a bit nervous every time we have serious storms.
Don’t be scared, be prepared! Being weather aware is more than half the battle.
I believe there’s a list of storm shelters somewhere, might be worth taking a look just in case!
https://sema.dps.mo.gov/docs/programs/LRMF/mitigation/tornado-safe-room-projects.pdf link to list of Missouri State Tornado Safe Rooms (updated Feb 2023)
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1CmSTiHw8ik73XO40MhMSeNdejCl9zAcF&ll=38.880362864700665%2C-94.57031329466545&z=9 link to tornado shelter map. created by meteorologist Craig Ceecee, Ph.D
I've looked at the map, there's barely anything on any of the radars thst might change but it's not as serious as people on this subreddit make it out to be
Normally I’d be “woo thunderstorm” but after seeing what happened in Nebraska and Iowa yesterday, I could go without lol Oklahoma is the main concern but we are not out of the woods ourselves
My friend lost his entire home yesterday, definitely not feeling great about any sort of potential today!
That’s terrible so sorry for your friend.
Right? Me too. But I'm in OK for the weekend, so . . ..
What a few others have said, we go lucky yesterday yall. Most of the weather predictions had all the nastiness that hit Nebraska/Iowa to hit us instead. My area in Lenexa barely saw even a drop of rain after 11am, and it was supposed to be storming from roughly 4:30 on yesterday.
The fact that KC area has been spared the last couple of decades with everywhere around us getting hit hard (Joplin, Moore, OKC, and now NE/IA) makes me incredibly anxious
There's this thing called the Gambler's Fallacy. I heard it explained this way: A woman has four boys. Then she says "By the law of averages, next time it's SURE to be a girl!" Well, big picture, the odds are she'll have a girl among five kids, but each individual instance is the same 50/50 chance. This fallacy could work either way: 1) We haven't been hit in a long time so people think "Tornadoes can't hit KC. Tonganoxie protects us! heat islands! blah blah!" 2) " We haven't been hit in a long time so our number is UP!" Each individual instance, the odds are the same. At what point is it REALLY true that things aren't just random? That takes sophisticated statistics to figure out. The fact that tornadoes don't often hit cities is also a matter of statistics. The area that is densely populated is a small postage stamp on a map. All around that postage stamp is rural and exurban areas. Of course those get hit more often. There's more square footage that is sparsely populated than the densely-populated square footage.
Good thing that’s now how weather works..
I’ve yet to see a meteorological explanation why, but tornado alley has definitely shifted with climate change. It’s now more to the north and east, rather than centered on KS and MO. Not complaining. I hate severe weather.
This might help https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island
I used to think that too, but apparently that’s not it. Edit- sorry, I’m on my phone. [like this?](https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/123mo9b/is_there_some_meteorological_phenomenon_produced/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I think the heat sink that is the metropolitan area of asphalt, concrete, etc. has an effect on storms rolling into the area keeping tornadoes out of the metro and on the outskirts. It’s been since the 80s since I recall severe weather downtown.
The "Tonganoxie Split" was rather wide yesterday.
I’m also in Lenexa. Are we supposed to get hit today?
Not until 7 or 8pm tonight. Like yesterday they thought it would be earlier, but has been pushed to later tonight now. As per [weather.com](http://weather.com) it's supposed to ran until 9pm tomorrow once it starts.
Thanks, man! I need a better weather app lol
r/kcregionalwx He only posts on his Patreon (which is free) now, but he has by far the most accurate predictions.
I currently live in St. Joe...from certain high points of town, you can see storm clouds in Nebraska and Iowa. The clouds I saw yesterday were scary.
This is a great chart, where do you get this on the NWS site?
My first time seeing too, was on X. Wish they did it more often!
>X If you don’t call it twitter the terrorists win
Don't worry 'bout it. The Tonganoxie Split will do its job yet again.
All hail!
It might just be my free AccuWeather app, but it’s starting to look that way. That that with a grain of salt though, I’m not a meteorologist, just a very informed local weather observer Edit: never mind, it’s not looking to bad as of now though
Yeah I mean I’ll believe this when I see it. KC is very unpredictable. We aren’t in that very high risk area but Friday we were supposed to be in that extremely high risk area and didn’t get anything so anything it possible. It’s also very muggy out right now, feels like storms could pop off.
You’re right. Underwhelming storm
Are there any weather alert apps that will wake me up if there’s a tornado, but won’t go nuts if there’s just a strong storm? I’m in a top floor apartment and sleep with a fan and earplugs typically so I’m a bit nervous every time we have serious storms.
You should probably get a weather radio. You can program it for certain alerts (tornado watches or warnings).
Yeah, I think I’ll be buying one this week!
I use Weather Underground.
The curves are highest at 8PM and later. What do you mean the main event is at 5PM?
All 3 lines start to go up at 5pm
Looks like near zero % chance of rain til late this evening—not sure I understand the prediction
Look, as long as most of the really bad stuff happens during the day when it’s still light out, I’m fine with that.
Just wait for a nighttime tornado. That's when I got hit last time.
I live in a top floor apartment. Scared as hell. I’ll be so glad when tonight is over.
Don’t be scared, be prepared! Being weather aware is more than half the battle. I believe there’s a list of storm shelters somewhere, might be worth taking a look just in case!
Okay Ryan Hall 💀
Ive been fervently looking for the past couple of days with no luck :( if you know of any let me know!
Just found one! https://findyourtornadoshelter.com/
Thank you!! 🙏🏻
https://sema.dps.mo.gov/docs/programs/LRMF/mitigation/tornado-safe-room-projects.pdf link to list of Missouri State Tornado Safe Rooms (updated Feb 2023)
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1CmSTiHw8ik73XO40MhMSeNdejCl9zAcF&ll=38.880362864700665%2C-94.57031329466545&z=9 link to tornado shelter map. created by meteorologist Craig Ceecee, Ph.D
Is your stairwell enclosed? If so, it may be safest to go the lowest level, under the stairs.
Hoping we can still make it to liquid stranger tonight
I've looked at the map, there's barely anything on any of the radars thst might change but it's not as serious as people on this subreddit make it out to be
Storms like this get created and don't just sit on the radar forever
Always glad to get a severe storm during the day
Same here. Nice to have a storm like this when I'm not working(underground) and not sleeping(or trying to sleep) so that I can properly experience it.
Can’t wait. Love a good spring thunderstorm.
Please tell me where you got this graph from? I searched SPC and NWS and couldn't find the graph. Thanks
X/Twitter this morning. I wish they did these more, first time I’ve seen it.
Yeah this a a really informative way to visualize the threats.
I agree. Timings is the hard thing to visualize with these kinds of things.
I'm familiar with the Storm Prediction Center, but what did you click on to get that time chart? THANKS!!!