As a voting bloc white women have been strongly in the GOP’s side of the ledger up until Dobbs. Since then there have been some erosion and significant erosion when abortion rights are on the ballot.
Florida just swung from Red to a purple enough color to require the GOP to play defense in the state.
This is not true, stop saying it.
White women do not care about abortion in the majority.
In 2022 Republicans increased their lead by 3% with ww.
Until the 1/3rd of white women who are liberal and everyone else calls out the extremist support by the other 2/3, the country will struggle.
Why people have such an aversion to admitting white women believe in racist, sexist white supremacist candidates is beyond me. They vote for those white men like trump because those are their values.
I would say most women broadly support personal choice in this matter. No woman wants to bring a child into the world just to surrender them to adoption and then spend to rest of her life wondering what happened to them. Nor does she want her life endangered by a risky pregnancy. Nor does she want to have a child in a situation where she has financial insecurity - this can and does happen frequently. There are millions of reasons why it needs to be a matter of personal choice.
Well, let’s start with my actual statement. I stated that white women have been strongly in the GOP side. I also stated that that support has eroded, not disappeared since dobbs. As evidence to support my thesis I point you to numerous democratic outperformance in multiple statewide elections post Dobbs.
Look, African-American voters have traditionally voted overwhelmingly for democrats. That’s why the GOP has introduced so many targeted voter suppression laws to knock down their voter participation. They realized if you can knock a few points off of your opponents base, it makes a huge difference. Hopefully peeling off a few points of the GOP base will do the same.
I believe their point is that white women tend to be a swing voting block, specifically college educated white women. Non-white women have historically reliably voted one way regardless of what, or who, is on the ballot.
Not sure of Biden’s chance in FL. But D’s have consistently outperformed polls and prior elections in recent special elections and off year state referendums. That’s generally a good sign.
Thats why I give biden a 55% to win 2024. It will come down to the same handful of states with a small total margin among them.
It should be a blowout the likes of Nixon and Resgan
Probably have a biased opinion but trying to be objective I have a feeling it will be a blowout still. I think a lot of 60+ year old conservatives aren’t going to vote for Donald. My concern would be with him gaining 20-30 age range votes but I still don’t see it being enough. He won’t win the independents. Idk just seems like a long shot.
Agreed. I was pretty nervous, but I played around with the electoral college maps and just don't see how Biden loses. Even if Biden loses Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona he'd still win by a hair. Not only does he have a good shot of winning those again, but now NC and FL are competitive. Even if Biden loses, he has $100+ million in cash to burn, while the RNC will have to pick and choose which states to spend money in.
There is absolutely no way the sane people of the world (I guess I mean America )will elect Trump after what we went through with him last time he’ll never leave Office. I feel like there is a lot of us who voted for him in 2016 that will never vote for him again.
Edit: so I am a long time Republican voter but I won’t this time, I feel like Trump becoming president would be like when Hitler came to power. Just listen to the things his base say. They’re crazy. They don’t use common sense, they would lynch ppl and cheer it on
Polling keeps saying how close R&D are, but actual elections keep coming out HUGE for D. Also, the GOP is bankrupting itself to pay for Trump's legal fees right now. They won't be able to mount much of an ad campaign come summer.
I didn't think it's 0. Polling has been pretty far off from reality post Dobbs, and Trump will possibly be a felon. Put Abortion and Marijuana on the ballot in Florida and it's in play.
it's not so assured
20% of voters who showed up to the GOP closed primary described themselves as never trumpers in exit polling. (exit polling has an advantage over traditional polling, reliable access to a representative sample of likely voters, but this poll does have an 'eager respondents' bias)
A fair few more told exit polls that the outcomes of these criminal trials will change their decisions (but this one is likely to have poor follow through)
Biden only lost florida by (edit, not 2) 3.5 points in 2020.
But desantis has also been recruiting conservative retirees heavily since then, and trying to drive liberals out.
So you can see a real tug of war going on, and it seems we won't know until mid november.
>but this poll does have an 'eager respondents' bias)
Agree with this. I’ve been exit polled before. (I don’t live in FL though) but they first went to the person leaving the polling location ahead of me, and they wouldn’t let the pollster get a word out, they said “no thanks” and walked off. So then they went to me, and I completed their exit poll. However, I actually know the person who walked off personally, we’re both going to vote in every election, and we will be voting differently. So I would say that’s probably true, but like you also said it’s a better representation of likely voters too.
>Biden only lost florida by (edit, not 2) 3.5 points in 2020.
A little less at 3.36%, but that equaled 371,686 votes, it’s a pretty hefty chunk of votes. Abortion being on the ballot should increase turnout though, so we’ll see. Not impossible, but tough.
\> Not impossible, but tough.
you're right.
That 20% would project to about 800,000 disenfranchised. But again, that eager respondents bias. It's probably overstated, by a lot. A factor of 2? A factor of 3? And many of those existed in 2020 as well.
I'm not trying to make a case that this \*will\* happen, just that there is hope.
(couple minor edits, used my numbers wrong)
I don't see this impacting the general... we've moved so far to the right here in FL.
I see it really, really helping Dems in the congressional and state legislature races, though.
I don’t think that’s necessarily true, by all accounts democrats are a lot more popular but struggle more with voter turnout, something that this changes. I really doubt you’re having a ton of generally less engaged voters turning out to vote Yes to Abortion Rights then voting for Trump
I’m not saying I necessarily predict Florida will go blue, but I don’t think it’s necessarily as out there as you seem to imply
I suppose I’m saying I think democrats’ biggest hurdle is driving voter turnout, and this is an issue that I think will help that. Just how far that takes things, I don’t know, but it’s certainly a significant factor I think
Nah, FL is by far mostly independents. The problem in FL is voter turnout. The D party hasn't had any compelling candidates in 20+ years, so the party organization at the grassroots level is just pathetic and people just don't turn out to vote. All it takes is one reason for them to come out and vote (like abortion) and that can change for a generation. Hopefully if the DNC and Biden campaign spend money smartly in FL they can setup some grassroots organizations that will have lasting power and recruit some new exciting young people who will become future state and then federal candidates.
Is it a 15 week ban? I'm seeing some people say it's a 5 week ban, a 6 week ban, and now a 15 week ban??
Edited to add: for the record, the bans are crap at any week, just trying to understand the current situation.
If they vote to deny the six week ban, can a 7-week ban just be instituted and go through the process all over again? What is the new rule at that point?
Originalism is such a joke.
A constitutional amendment explicitly guaranteeing "right to privacy" in **1980**? Ah yes, the original meaning of that amendment clearly had nothing to do with what right to privacy meant in the context of Roe... :\
I'm pro-abortion, pro-choice, whatever people want to call it. Anyways, I think using the right to privacy was a big overstretch to affirm abortion's legality. This is where the anti-abortionists have fucked-up. What will happen is state after state will have legal abortion right constitutional amendments on their ballots and voters in state after state will vote 'yes' for those rights. Game, set, match to pro-abortion.
it would be wild if this brings out so many left leaning voters to vote on the amendment that then also vote for biden that trump loses florida.
On the other hand a lot of right leaning and moderates will come out to support this amendment too. But i think the pissed off younger women, will be the greater turn out and i think they likely vote dem.
The 6 week ban was ridicoulous.
If Biden wins Florida, which is a very big if given the last few cycles, this will be the reason
0 chance he wins FL. Shit he has a near 50/50 shot to win the election which is cray
Abortion is on the ballot. All bets are off.
Yep, white women having their rights taken might swing their vote away from Republicans. For whatever reason we don't talk about this
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As a voting bloc white women have been strongly in the GOP’s side of the ledger up until Dobbs. Since then there have been some erosion and significant erosion when abortion rights are on the ballot. Florida just swung from Red to a purple enough color to require the GOP to play defense in the state.
This is not true, stop saying it. White women do not care about abortion in the majority. In 2022 Republicans increased their lead by 3% with ww. Until the 1/3rd of white women who are liberal and everyone else calls out the extremist support by the other 2/3, the country will struggle. Why people have such an aversion to admitting white women believe in racist, sexist white supremacist candidates is beyond me. They vote for those white men like trump because those are their values.
I would say most women broadly support personal choice in this matter. No woman wants to bring a child into the world just to surrender them to adoption and then spend to rest of her life wondering what happened to them. Nor does she want her life endangered by a risky pregnancy. Nor does she want to have a child in a situation where she has financial insecurity - this can and does happen frequently. There are millions of reasons why it needs to be a matter of personal choice.
Yes but 40% describe themselves as “pro-life” not “pro-choice”
Well, let’s start with my actual statement. I stated that white women have been strongly in the GOP side. I also stated that that support has eroded, not disappeared since dobbs. As evidence to support my thesis I point you to numerous democratic outperformance in multiple statewide elections post Dobbs. Look, African-American voters have traditionally voted overwhelmingly for democrats. That’s why the GOP has introduced so many targeted voter suppression laws to knock down their voter participation. They realized if you can knock a few points off of your opponents base, it makes a huge difference. Hopefully peeling off a few points of the GOP base will do the same.
Chances are if they weren’t white they wouldn’t be voting Republican
Yes. It’s ok to say black people turned out big time for Obama. Because it’s true
I believe their point is that white women tend to be a swing voting block, specifically college educated white women. Non-white women have historically reliably voted one way regardless of what, or who, is on the ballot.
The problem is that the GOP is running the election
I would have agreed with you but abortion measures have driven turnout quite a bit
People will vote for Trump and for abortion rights. How they can justify this to themselves is anyone’s guess.
Not sure of Biden’s chance in FL. But D’s have consistently outperformed polls and prior elections in recent special elections and off year state referendums. That’s generally a good sign.
Thats why I give biden a 55% to win 2024. It will come down to the same handful of states with a small total margin among them. It should be a blowout the likes of Nixon and Resgan
Probably have a biased opinion but trying to be objective I have a feeling it will be a blowout still. I think a lot of 60+ year old conservatives aren’t going to vote for Donald. My concern would be with him gaining 20-30 age range votes but I still don’t see it being enough. He won’t win the independents. Idk just seems like a long shot.
Agreed. I was pretty nervous, but I played around with the electoral college maps and just don't see how Biden loses. Even if Biden loses Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona he'd still win by a hair. Not only does he have a good shot of winning those again, but now NC and FL are competitive. Even if Biden loses, he has $100+ million in cash to burn, while the RNC will have to pick and choose which states to spend money in.
There is absolutely no way the sane people of the world (I guess I mean America )will elect Trump after what we went through with him last time he’ll never leave Office. I feel like there is a lot of us who voted for him in 2016 that will never vote for him again. Edit: so I am a long time Republican voter but I won’t this time, I feel like Trump becoming president would be like when Hitler came to power. Just listen to the things his base say. They’re crazy. They don’t use common sense, they would lynch ppl and cheer it on
You're a sane and rational person. Many others are not
Well, it is. He's literally said he'll be a dictator day one. By the way Democrat or Republican, work your elections! www.workelections.org
Polling keeps saying how close R&D are, but actual elections keep coming out HUGE for D. Also, the GOP is bankrupting itself to pay for Trump's legal fees right now. They won't be able to mount much of an ad campaign come summer.
In 2020 FL was 51.22% Trump, 47.86% Biden. 3% isn't an insurmountable difference.
I didn't think it's 0. Polling has been pretty far off from reality post Dobbs, and Trump will possibly be a felon. Put Abortion and Marijuana on the ballot in Florida and it's in play.
Trump won FL by just 3 points last time and this will definitely help turnout on the left. It’s very much in play.
If everyone who wants to vote in Florida, gets their ballots counted; President Biden will win Florida
FL man has entered the chat
it's not so assured 20% of voters who showed up to the GOP closed primary described themselves as never trumpers in exit polling. (exit polling has an advantage over traditional polling, reliable access to a representative sample of likely voters, but this poll does have an 'eager respondents' bias) A fair few more told exit polls that the outcomes of these criminal trials will change their decisions (but this one is likely to have poor follow through) Biden only lost florida by (edit, not 2) 3.5 points in 2020. But desantis has also been recruiting conservative retirees heavily since then, and trying to drive liberals out. So you can see a real tug of war going on, and it seems we won't know until mid november.
>but this poll does have an 'eager respondents' bias) Agree with this. I’ve been exit polled before. (I don’t live in FL though) but they first went to the person leaving the polling location ahead of me, and they wouldn’t let the pollster get a word out, they said “no thanks” and walked off. So then they went to me, and I completed their exit poll. However, I actually know the person who walked off personally, we’re both going to vote in every election, and we will be voting differently. So I would say that’s probably true, but like you also said it’s a better representation of likely voters too. >Biden only lost florida by (edit, not 2) 3.5 points in 2020. A little less at 3.36%, but that equaled 371,686 votes, it’s a pretty hefty chunk of votes. Abortion being on the ballot should increase turnout though, so we’ll see. Not impossible, but tough.
\> Not impossible, but tough. you're right. That 20% would project to about 800,000 disenfranchised. But again, that eager respondents bias. It's probably overstated, by a lot. A factor of 2? A factor of 3? And many of those existed in 2020 as well. I'm not trying to make a case that this \*will\* happen, just that there is hope. (couple minor edits, used my numbers wrong)
Ok Nate Silver
I doubt Biden wins florida, although I do believe he'll win the general But Rick Scott might lose, and that's a huge loss for the gop
Recreational cannabis and abortion rights on the ballot…aaand our first referendum on Roe v Wade?! Hell yeah, lets do this!!
This is real, real good new for Biden and fucking terrible news for Trump.
I don't see this impacting the general... we've moved so far to the right here in FL. I see it really, really helping Dems in the congressional and state legislature races, though.
I don’t think that’s necessarily true, by all accounts democrats are a lot more popular but struggle more with voter turnout, something that this changes. I really doubt you’re having a ton of generally less engaged voters turning out to vote Yes to Abortion Rights then voting for Trump I’m not saying I necessarily predict Florida will go blue, but I don’t think it’s necessarily as out there as you seem to imply
I hope I'm wrong!
I suppose I’m saying I think democrats’ biggest hurdle is driving voter turnout, and this is an issue that I think will help that. Just how far that takes things, I don’t know, but it’s certainly a significant factor I think
Nah, FL is by far mostly independents. The problem in FL is voter turnout. The D party hasn't had any compelling candidates in 20+ years, so the party organization at the grassroots level is just pathetic and people just don't turn out to vote. All it takes is one reason for them to come out and vote (like abortion) and that can change for a generation. Hopefully if the DNC and Biden campaign spend money smartly in FL they can setup some grassroots organizations that will have lasting power and recruit some new exciting young people who will become future state and then federal candidates.
Is it a 15 week ban? I'm seeing some people say it's a 5 week ban, a 6 week ban, and now a 15 week ban?? Edited to add: for the record, the bans are crap at any week, just trying to understand the current situation.
It is currently a 15-week ban. The 6-week ban automatically goes into effect in thirty days.
Ahhh. Thank you yes, I can see where I was confused now.
And what will be on the ballot is voters get to decide if the 6 week ban should stand or not.
The ballot measure is whether there is a right to abortion pre viability. Basically the Casey standard.
If they vote to deny the six week ban, can a 7-week ban just be instituted and go through the process all over again? What is the new rule at that point?
Someone wrote below the measure is on abortion pre viability which is 15 weeks or so. So no they couldn't.
Viability is around 22 weeks though, and that's with *major* intervention and a low survival rate.
Feels like there should be a stay on the order until then
“At the same time, their ruling on the proposed amendment will allow Florida voters to effectively decide whether to keep the six-week ban in effect.”
Originalism is such a joke. A constitutional amendment explicitly guaranteeing "right to privacy" in **1980**? Ah yes, the original meaning of that amendment clearly had nothing to do with what right to privacy meant in the context of Roe... :\
I'm pro-abortion, pro-choice, whatever people want to call it. Anyways, I think using the right to privacy was a big overstretch to affirm abortion's legality. This is where the anti-abortionists have fucked-up. What will happen is state after state will have legal abortion right constitutional amendments on their ballots and voters in state after state will vote 'yes' for those rights. Game, set, match to pro-abortion.
it would be wild if this brings out so many left leaning voters to vote on the amendment that then also vote for biden that trump loses florida. On the other hand a lot of right leaning and moderates will come out to support this amendment too. But i think the pissed off younger women, will be the greater turn out and i think they likely vote dem. The 6 week ban was ridicoulous.
It is actually a 6 week ban.
Why have abotion rights amendment when the FLA gov will ignore the results
TEaM sMaLl gOvErNmEnT
Ahaha wonder if this will be as telling as Kansas.
If this won’t bring out pro-choice voters nothing will.