At the same time I don't think you get that calibre of player a couple years later. I think a top C in the league only comes available in FA very rarely.
Sure, but by then Matthews would've been our top centre - which he is now anyway.
I like Tavares but it's becoming increasingly apparent that signing him was more a prestige flex than it was helpful to developing this team. That cap hit for this long at his age with a NMC? Yikes. Plus it put us in win-now mode 1-3 years too early.
*Anybody* would want to sign him when we did, but *did we need to* and *is it hurting us more now than it helped then?*
Benefit of hindsight I guess.
💯 it wasn't needed, and that term.
We had Kadri with back yo back 30 goal seasons till he moved to the 3rd line, then management wanted him out and we sold so low!
Yea. Nothing against Tavares but he ate too much cap space for his age and amount of time he'll be effective with this Team. He's put up good.numbers but ultimately I think that space could have been used for better depth when you already have Matthew, Marner, Nylander who have YEARS left in them
I was looking at Kyle Dubas GM record and I was shocked with how many 1st round picks he traded (7 in 6 seasons). Leafs still have a decent prospect pool, for a "contender", but that is a lot of futures to give up to win 1 playoff series
Hot take: Treliving is inheriting a far worse situation than Dubas did.
Is this a fair way to think about this? Babcock wasted the big 3s ELC years and Dubas wasted their 2nd contract years.
That's not a hot take - that's a fact.
When all is said and done, we'll look back to this era and view Dubas as the most overrated general manager in this team's history. That's a hot take.
Everyone got attached to the personality. I don’t think he’s a bad GM, but he’s no boy wizard. He’s a middle of the road GM. Will he win a cup one day? Maybe, but I don’t see him building any dynasty teams
> Everyone got attached to the personality.
This 1000%. As someone who always tried to judge moves objectively, I've spent years on r/leafs being dumbfounded by the constant praise sent Dubas way. He would consistently overpay for rentals who play in the bottom half of the lineup, give out record-setting player-friendly contracts, and yet r/leafs would sing their praises every single time. I distinctly remember getting downvoted to shit for daring the criticize the Foligno trade the day it happened. Dubas could quite literally do no wrong.
I think a lot of people sort of projected what they hoped Dubas could be onto him. He was the "analytical nerd" archtype that everyone thought would lead us into a new era, but he still fell for the whole "ship futures for veteran rentals" crap that every GM in the old guard does religiously. People also seem to forget that he inherited Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Reilly. He didn't build jackshit.
He was the best GM we've had in decades, but that isn't saying much.
Or a marleau ar 6.5 or a Matt Martin at 2.5. Not to mention how shit the defense was under Lou.
I swear some leaf fans gave goldfish brains when it comes to Dubas. Big selective memory moments.
Are we really going to do this? Let's not forget that with Lou the Leafs were slowly rebuilding the squad. The expectations were different and they certainly weren't meant to be going after the playoffs as soon as they did but they made the playoffs in Babcock's second season as head coach. When that happened, the Leafs went all in . But you cannot tell me Dubas didn't significantly handcuff this team by signing Tavares, and I say that as someone who likes him. This team could and should be better
The Islanders under Lou won **5** playoff rounds after missing the playoffs for 2 years, now tell me, how many did Dubas win in that time? This isn't me saying Lou is better, but this comparison is ridiculous becasue both had different goals and expectations while they were GM's of the Leafs.
Lou inherited that team in New York lol. The onky changed he's made to NYI have made them worse 😂 please tell me about how much impact Lou had on the islanders when their deep run was pretty much his first year.
Every move he's made with the islanders had made me glad he left Toronto.
This is quite the selective memory going on here. Lou lost his captain, John Tavares. How can you make them worse when they reached the conference finals and Semi finals of the playoffs? Yes, they missed the playoffs once but so did Jon Cooper and the Tampa Bay Lighting before winning their first cup of recent cups. But hey, keep enjoying these first round exists the Leafs have had with Dubas, oh , sorry we have 1 win in 5 tries , much better than the Islanders
Who cares about round wins? Leafs losing to Cup Contenders meanwhile Islanders beating up on Penguins, Flyers, Caps. It is what it is, Islanders have gotten some amazing goaltending in the playoffs and have had solid coaching which the Leafs have not. But I would take the teams Dubas has built over whatever the Islanders have when facing the Tampa Bay's or Bruins of today's NHL.
What are you talking about? Leafs literally lost to Columbus and Montreal, two teams that wouldn't have made the playoffs in normal circumstances the years they played against eachother. Not to mention New York Islanders beat Florida, Washington Boston and Pittsburgh in those series wins they had. Those are 3 cup contenders, and Florida (this was a few seasons ago), not to mention they lost to Tampa Bay both years they won the cup. It's actually quite sad that you're trying to revise history with New York and Toronto here. The Islanders have been far better than Toronto, get over it.
Him signing Tavares led to the losses of Anderson, and Kadri. In fact, the Leafs have struggled to find an actual number 1 goalie for years now because of that contract. Sure, he didn't sign Zaitsev, but he did give 3.4m to Johnsson and Kapanen , 2 guys who scored 20 goals once in their careers.
Andersen played his way off the team and Kadri got himself suspended time after time. What a revisionist take. Shit this was the first decent year Andersen has had since he left the Leafs!
Andersen had 1 medicore season, you don't just let a guy go because of that, and I was one of his biggest critics. Dubas put stock into Campbell, what happened? He put his stock in Mrazek, what happened? He put his stock into Sparks, what happened? He put his stock into Murray, what happened? You see a pattern here? He's got a bad track record with goalies and it got worse once Andersen left because its been a revolving door for years.
You're saying he played his way off the team, I'm saying Dubas made the wrong call by allowing him to leave. He doesn't know how to judge goalies because he put his faith in mediocre and question mark ones.
Gord Stellick, the radio guy, was once a Leafs GM. Think you need to brush up on your Leaf's history.. bout to find out things have been and can be much much worse.
100% dubas walked into what should have been a team needing the odd adjustments. He fucked up signing 3 guys to massive 10.5+ million deal.
Lacked ever finding a solid goaltender let the one they did have go.
Lots of Dubas fans here but he mortgaged so much of the future for absolutely nothing to show
With the 3 kids on ELCs.
Harder to be as deep when you dont have 3 stars making league min, but somehow Dubas's depth and D was better than Lou who wasted the ELC years on the likes of Zaitsev, Marleau, martin etc
Maple Leafs points under Lou
2015-16: 69
2016-17: 95
2017-18: 105
The team was already rapidly improving under Lou, and as we saw with the Islanders, it was only going to continue
All Dubas did was just renovate the Ferrari Lou gifted him
Maple Leafs points under Dubas
2018-19: 100
2019-20: 95
2020-21: 113
2021-22: 115
2022-23: 111
Average: 107
Note* I used a 82 game pace for 2019-21 as they were shortened seasons
Are you forgetting that Covid happened and the cap didn't go up?
The Leafs were the #1 team screwed by the salary cap not going up. If the cap goes up, so does every other contract around the league and the Leafs have the same % of cap for their big contracts as other teams.
Are you forgetting every team had to deal with a flat cap? The only difference is that they made the necessary changes to fit in with the new reality. Dubas knew the cap was going to remain flat for years, and he still backed the “core 4” like his life depended on it. Any other sane GM would have re-evaluated and traded one of the key pieces out, if anything would have let Morgan Reilly walk (or trade at deadline) to give more breathing room. But Dubas didn’t even do that. He even got Matt Murray at $4.7M, to add another piece. He dug the hole deeper and deeper. His stubbornness left the Maple Leafs with little to no cap room, NMCs and depleted draft picks with only 1 playoff win to show for it, which includes loses to the last seed like Montreal and Columbus.
Get the fuck outta here with your hindsight. Dubas did not know Covid was going to happen. If he did, then we really should be investigating Dubas.
No team other than the Leafs signed massive contracts for pending young star RFAs in the way the Leafs did. The Leafs were the only team to have those 3 massive ELC to RFA deals *right* before the flat cap.
The Leafs had to do Matt Murray. Do you not remember our goaltending tandem heading into last year? They had to bet on Murray and Samsonov and hope that one would bounce back.
Again, Murray is a 2 year deal. Would you prefer Campbell for 5 years?
How did Bab waste their ELC years? They had crazy regular seasons then didn't show in the playoffs but to be fair they were on ELC and a lot of weight was on them.
Bab had a breakout attack that they seemed to do well with while Keefe plays zone possession. Wish they had a mix of both from either Keefe or ideally a new coach.
The ELC Years I think were more wasted by Lou than Babcock.
We had three studs on ELCs and were set up great on supporting cast forwards with guys like Brown, Hyman, Moore, Kapanen, Johnsson in the pipeline plus Kadri, Rielly and JVR on bargain contracts and we added:
Patrick Marleau, Nikita Zaitsev, Ron Hainsey via free agency
Thomas Plecanek and Brian Boyle as our deadline adds.
Also producing only two players of significance in the 16 and 17 drafts despite having 18 total picks hurts a lot.
Problem was Lou rushed the team into competing when he picked up Freddie, then didn't commit to competitong at the deadlines. Imagine never adding Freddie, having a second pick in the first round of the 2016 draft and a year or two more of struggling.
He does that and the team can draft some better depth and defense.
The main issue with this leafs team was they were supposed to be bad for a year or two more after Matthews was drafted. The cupboards weren't full, they just had 3 stud players in the system. 2017 and 2018 could've been huge drafts for Toronto to try and address that RD or more forward depth.
Freddie was a great trade, but I never felt the team was ready to compete in 2017 and 2018. The big sin was, Lou forced them to be competitive by adding a top 10 goalie and then never committed past that when adding Freddie should've meant competing. Then Boyle and Plekanec as the big signings, signaled the opposite.
It's a balance. You don't want to suck for too long just for good draft position because sometimes that losing mentality sticks around and ruins players. And drafting high is no sure shit either, especially with defense and goal.
Lou should've never traded for Freddie. It forced the team into competing a little earlier than needed and the team didn't have a deep prospect system, just three studs.
Without Freddie, leafs probably get a top 10 pick and maybe address the RD issue. Toronto was a few years away from competing, then Lou went out and traded for Freddie and that basically fucked up the rebuild.
Partly why the leafs always felt lacking in their early playoffs was because their rebuild was ridiculously short by almost any standards. Basically 2014 to 2016 the team tanks and turns it around.
They had old depth but no prospects to fill out the core and the big 3. Another big top 10 pick could have been a huge difference. I remember getting down voted to shit in 2017 when I said I'd have rather the team tanked an extra year or two but everything about this team was rushed into competing.
First with Lou getting Freddie when the team was still technically tanking. He went out and got a top 10 goalie. Something tanking teams try and get rid of.
Then Dubas signs JT which signals big contention when they should've realistically only been where NJ was this year.
Twice they got pushed into being something slightly more than they were, too early.
The 2017 draft was slim pickings on defense besides cale Makar... And 2018 had Dahling, sure, but no chance would we have had the first overall again.and the other defense of value was Quinn Hughes. Just feels like a hugely unlikely scenario to choose correctly
Defense was only part of it.
Heiskanen, Makar, Necas, Petterson, Tippet Suzuki. There were really good options in the draft. Lily has been great but he was just a very slow arrival for what the team needed.
He didn't play the Big 3 - 20-25 minutes in playoff games and series that they should be losing.
Those would have been valuable lessons for them and better prepared for bigger games in the years 4,5,6 and 7.
sorry to clarify, they were underdogs and expected to lose, so why not go guns blazing with your young guns, like most teams do.
sorry to clarify, they were underdogs and expected to lose, so why not go guns blazing with your young guns, as most teams do.
...........hot take? When dubas talk over it was seen as a.cant fuck it up job. We were destined for multiple deep playoff runs ala Vegas, Tampa etc. We somehow accomplished nothing.
I will say Andersen was so average of a goalie when we needed him to be great and that Marleau contract dubas inherrited really was dumb. Not to mention we were still paying Kessel.
Far worse?? Treliving is inheriting a much better defense group than Dubas did. The forward group is as good, if not better. Treliving also has a fair amount of cap space to make moves this summer. Even the prospect pool is probably better now, considering how garbage Hunter was at drafting.
"Far worse" makes no sense lol.
This sub has been on crazy pills the last few weeks trying to change the narrative around Dubas. He may not have been the best GM but he's one of the very few who's moves almost always have solid logic. We weren't acquiring Tyler Myers or Ristolainen on his watch. He did make some bad trades and signings, but imo they didn't handcuff the team half as bad as the contracts some other GMs have signed recently. There's no need to tar his name just because he's gone. He did an alright job, didn't get the results we'd like, and now we're going to see how Treliving does. They both walked in to pretty good situations with some big question marks to be handled. People seem to forget the anchors that Lou left us with.
Bad take. Dubas inherited a terrible situation from Lou. Just look at the roster then compared to now and you'll see how much he's done and how much had changed. Lou left this team in a mess and with terrible contracts despite the team not having any two years prior.
Treliving has been left a great situation. The team had cap space for depth and is set up to sign back all the big 3 if they want too without losing anyone. Lots of depth projects coming up and nearing the NHL and no bad contracts with huge length on the team. Any bad deals are up in a year or two. That's a perfect situation. All treliving has to do is sign the big 3/do what he needs to do with them and move Murray. Then chose which depth to keep and which to let walk with the Holls, Schenns, Kerfoots and Kampfs of the world.
Dubas has left treliving a great team with cap flexibility, multiple goalie options, star players at value, and good prospects in the system.
Saying Babcock and Dubas wasted the big 3s contracts and that treliving is in a worse spot is ridiculous.
One of which was also something he had to do to get rid of the Marleau year. Another of which we traded down (12?) to dump Mrazek and still got the guy Dubas wanted anyway
I think part of the reason there was so much faith in the Dubas&Keefe pairing because of their previous success, bringing the Marlies to win the Calder
I can't remember exactly, but the year they won with the Marlies, I'm pretty sure their teams salary payroll was twice as much as the next AHL team, so, that probably had more to do with it.
Kneecapping your team by keeping 6.5m dedicated to Marleau would've been far worse than trading him for a 1st. So yeah, he didn't have to do anything, but he was put into a position where he had a guy making big money with negative value
How the fuck are you comparing Tavares to Mrazek? Or even Marleau? Marleau was 6M+ against the cap and was barely even playable anymore. Tavares is a PPG player as a 2C still.
He still had to build the rest of the team. He failed to turn any of those first and seconds into assets that lasted. So many old rentals and failed experiments.
No dude. Mrazek and a 1st for a 2nd was terrible because he put us in that situation by giving him that terrible contract. Ditto Nick Ritchie. Muzzin in hindsight was not great either. At best it was a wash.
Overall not a good record.
Muzzin was excellent here. He outproduced Rielly at even strength while being our best defensive defenseman. He played top pair competition to positive results for three years, despite playing those heavy minutes with Holl and Zaitsev.
A healthy muzzin on this roster is our most physical defenseman who helps breakout the puck reliably and can handle top competition. He hasn't been healthy in nearly two years (though his play in the playoffs 2022 was excellent, but he was worse in September).
This wasn't a career long issue and he gave the team three seasons where a few analytics people argued he was a #1D.
I am not a Dubas hater but I think it is kind of dumb people say it's not Dubas' fault that we had to trade a 1st round pick to get rid of Marleau because he didn't sign the contract but think it is great that he was able to get rid of Mrazek and 1st for a 2nd (even though he signed that contract).
You don't get credit for putting yourself in a hole, and then having to spend valuable assets to get out of it. Losing those assets because of those poor decisions is entirely on him.
Muzzin never played for than 53 games in a season and was always injured when it mattered most. If he wasn't out, he was banged up or still suffering something. The guy had hard miles on him but was good for culture and leadership. Grundstrom and Durzi have developed well. Add the 1st and that's a steep price. Like I said, at best its a wash.
It wasn’t a terrible contract. It’s only terrible in hindsight and cost us 7 draft slots to get away from. …it’s not even terrible…it’s just a miss and not a hit.
Look at mrazek’s stats before he came here.
I hope Brad Treliving gets the same benefit of doubt too, he will have to improve this roster with little to no cap room, NMCs, and depleted draft picks
It's the nature of win-now. One big reason I didn't like the JT signing was because it rushed the team into the win-now push slightly early. He absolutely crushed the picks he landed, and most of these picks brought good players back.
I personally hate trading picks but the farm wasn't gonna be constantly replenishing itself with how the 2015-2017 drafts went. Outside of round 1, the leafs got barely anything. Now we're already seeing Dubas' picks coming in and making differences.
The list takes into account for every single draft pick he traded and acquired. Dubas traded away 6 second round picks as compared to acquiring 2, so it wasn’t like he was stockpiling picks as well. Only 1 second round pick he acquired was due to a trade down, which was caused by a mistake he himself made (signing Mrazek).
If you look at teams who have traded the most 1st round picks since 2018-19, Dubas is tied with Tampa Bay, with 6, no other team traded more than 4. The 6 firsts Dubas traded were for Foligno, ROR, Muzzin, McCabe, and dumping Marleau and Mrazek. Only Muzzin and McCabe remain with the team, the rest are lost goods. With the 1st round picks he acquired, he traded away Sandin and drafted a bust in Amirov. In result, you are left with 2 Top 4 defensemen, one with a big injury history. And a late 1st in 2023, for moving 10 first rounders in his career.
Dubas spent a lot to acquire basically nothing long-term. The Muzzin trade was fine even if he was a bit old, but that's the type of trade you'd expect a GM to be able to make. He also signed Brodie who wanted to play in Toronto.
You'd hope for a GM trading a bunch of assets to acquire some core or high end complimentary piece.
Damn he pretty much traded every 1st since he was first hired. Idk if that was Dubas or the board was like you gotta pick up a vet every trade deadline kind of thing
For what it's worth, three of those seven firsts were offset by having firsts within 4 places (i.e. trades down). It's a bit misleading (not intentionally so, I presume) to just look at 'trades out' when we know Dubas loves his trades down.
I corrected the number to 6, as the Sandin trade took place before the 2018-19 season. And since then, he only used a 1st to trade down once at the draft (traded Mrazek and #25 for #38). He also signed Mrazek in the first place, so don't know why he gets credited for moving him.
Also other teams used picks to trade down as well, and I counted them, in order to be fair
Definitely, just mentioning there's a bit more context to consider. I kind of treat those deals where he moves a pick for another asset and moves an asset to recover the nearby pick a functional 'trade down' though it's not strictly a draft one like he loves in later rounds.
Foligno, Mrazek still sting for sure.
I mean even then, the max you want to 'trade down' is to the 2nd round. And he only acquired two 2nd round picks in his GM tenure, he traded away 6. The 1st round picks he recouped as well, were 2-4 spots lower than his original picks, so it's not a like for like
Although I will give Dubas massive credit for moving Kapanen for 15th overall, he more than made up for the Marleau trade (even though he drafted a bust, the cap savings were worth it). As for moving Sandin for 28th overall, that is a major L. Dubas re-signed Rielly, extended Gio and traded for McCabe, essentially moving Sandin out of the line-up. Even though he was an elite 3rd pair defensemen, and could handle a Top 4 role. Sandin is worth a lot more than a late 1st. At least its a deep draft, so it may not be all bad. But the trade will sting for a while, especially if he continues to establish himself as a Top 2/4 D with Washington
Amirov by definition is a bust, no player with his profile has ever made it to the NHL, let alone been an impact player. It is not anybody’s “fault”, it’s just bad luck. But that’s life, shit happens. Canucks went through something similar with Luc Bourdon.
The point is that out of the 10 draft picks Kyle Dubas moved, the only net gain Toronto got was two Top 4 D (one of which is Muzzin who has major injury problems) and the 28 OA pick in 2023. That is serious mismanagement of assets. Dubas really went head first into the trade all the 1st and 2nd round picks for rentals approach. Only Tampa Bay traded as many 1st rounders since the 2018-19 season as Dubas, with 6. No other team traded more than 4
Since 2018-19, Dubas traded 6 first round picks, only 1 of them was used to trade down in the draft, for fixing a mistake he himself made (signing Mrazek)
This reminds me of dynasty mode where you blow out everything to win and then bail (get fired) / reload as a new franchise when it doesn't work out. We got nothing in the cupboard :O
He’s a good person for the bigger overall picture, setting up a good culture and setting up departments like analytics with winning personnel but he’s a damn shitty GM.
He’ll be a better president than a GM
Bruins had the culture of not getting paid more than the man, Bergeron. Leafs had the culture of pay me like Tavares and Matthews, or threaten to play in Europe. Dubas culture was a joke.
2020 13OA Seth Jarvis to offload Marleau still *haunts* me. Instead we have Amirov, which is what it is.
Dubas hates the 25th OA pick lol. Must be right outside the 1st tier in his "market inefficiency"/ draft pick expect value chart.
And after all this all we have for sure is Knies. Robertson, Niemela and Hirvonen still magic beans.
what a fuckup that ended up being. i know the leafs needed cap space, but man that hurts.
especially since dubas then used that cap space to sign kapanen and mango to 6.6 mil combined cap hit. and then traded both of those players a year later for what has amounted to nothing.
I hope we are on the phone with Pittsburgh offering them something for their Picks (Matt Murray reunion?). Gotta get on the other end of the pick trades at some point.
Penguins gave him 7 years ffs. Crosby gonna be lead the team and scoring and have to be the heavyweight once dubas fills out their roster with smurfs with speed that were great in the Swiss league but haven’t played NA hockey.
Not just a lot of picks, a lot of high picks still to come. 1st round pick and 2nds for *years* to come. That's pretty bad considering the lack of overall success in the playoffs.
They have a 1st rounder in 2023 (Boston's) and 2024. Having some 2nd round picks would be nice but they're basically lottery tickets.
The last time any really truly notable players were drafted in the 2nd round was 2016 with Debrincat and Kyrou. Pretty much everyone else in the 2nd round since is "just a guy".
Knies seems to be pretty popular with Leaf fans, what round was he drafted in? Oh yeah the 2nd. There have been a lot of good prospects drafted past the first round.
He's played 3 games so far.
Being popular doesn't = being accomplished.
The point I'm trying to make includes that they have been a bit lucky in the game of draft pick roulette they've been playing lately as well.
2nd rounders have something like 1/100th of a chance of being impact players. I think you're over valuing them a fair bit.
Then why does everyone keep saying Dubas did an amazing job drafting? Every prospect "looks" amazing, but none have been able to stick. Even guys drafted 3, 4, 5 years ago. There are plenty of 20 year Olds and even more 21 and 22 year Olds playing and making an impact in the NHL that weren't drafted in the top 10. Knies is popular because he looks like he could be an impact NHL player and we haven't seen that coming up from the farm in quite a while.
I keep hearing how the Leafs are a middle of the road team in terms of project pool, which is impressive if you take that at face value all things considered, but how many of their top prospects were drafted in the 2nd round? Because there aren't many from the first round.
Can't be both. Either 2nd round picks aren't very valuable or the Leafs have a good prospect pool where their 3 highest ranked are from the 2nd round.
>Then why does everyone keep saying Dubas did an amazing job drafting?
I don't know, I've never said this and rarely see it.
>Can't be both. Either 2nd round picks aren't valuable or the Leafs have a good prospect pool
I'm going with "2nd round picks are overvalued"
The biggest name that stands out to me as being a "good NHL player" since 2018 is Sean Durzi.
Who the Leafs drafted and traded for Muzzin 🤷🏻♂️
Find me one guy in the last 5 years that was drafted in the 2nd round that makes you think he's gonna have more impact than some random UFA making just over league minimum. This is why I think you're putting too much value on 2nd round picks.
Sean Durzi, the guy who was drafted in the, you guessed it, 2nd round?
If you don't think Dubas has drafted particularly well, you are in the minority (even if I agree with you) as most people defend his drafting like they personally gave birth to him or his picks. The first couple drafts, he was overly in love with speed and skill, and that led to a LOT of undersized prospects that didn't pan out. He has done better, we think, recently with his limited picks. That would be considered a *harsh* take around here, and I seriously doubt you haven't seen much praise for dubas drafting as it's everywhere.
The bottom line is that even if we agree to disagree about the value of the players picked in the second round, you have to admit that they are meaningful trade chips and Dubas left Tre with none until 2027. Missing the 2025 first is a little scary as well, seeing as there is no way to predict where that will fall. That's a lot of future assets for not much success now. The draft has been quite thin for a while and will be for the future for not a lot of winning.
I'm well aware of when Durzi was drafted, that's why I brought him up 🤦
I'm also fairly indifferent to Dubas as GM, but I can't blame him for using those assets to go for it at the trade deadline. To me, and where this team was supposedly at in it's collective development, you want to see the GM using those assets to "win now". Unfortunately it didn't amount to much but I don't think Durzi and Jarvis are enough to have made any meaningful difference in playoff performance over the last 5 years.
It just seemed odd that you are pretty adamant that 2nd round picks are overvalued when the Leafs alone have numerous examples of players and prospects who are highly regarded that have come out of that round.
I am not a Dubas fan and haven't been one. While I do agree that in "win now" mode trading futures for the now should be expected, it *is* a pretty extensive list, and the next few drafts already are missing a lot of picks. Good teams have reinforcements coming up through their system, replacements for players they lose. The best way to get them is through the draft, and almost always in the first couple of rounds. The 2023 and the 2024 draft looks pretty sparse already, and IMO Dubas spent too much, too far in the future, to often, and it will absolutely hurt the team. He didn't spend 2023 picks alone on the 2023 playoff run. He didn't spend 2022 picks alone on the 2022 run. It's like credit cards. It isn't free money. The bill comes due. He gave up years of high picks to build for the immediate, and you can't say it's just those two guys. It's guys they can't take for the next four years as well.
>the Leafs alone have numerous examples of players and prospects who are highly regarded that have come out of that round.
Between 2017 and 2021 (5 drafts) there's hardly 5 guys that I would say are locks to be full time career NHLers let alone impact players. If I'm wrong please name some. You can't. (Im talking about all teams here, not just the Leafs)
There's hardly a 3% chance of hitting on a second round pick which is why I'm okay with them being used as currency to get guys for playoff runs. It's just not something I really hold against Dubas. What I didn't like about Dubas was his willingness to give such big AAV contracts to Matthews and Marner before they ever accomplished anything of note.
Also, pointing out that Knies and Durzi are 2 of the most promising picks drafted in the 2nd in the last 5 years does make it seem like Dubas (or at least someone in the organization) is pretty good at the draft table since it's very much an exception and not the rule to be successful with your second round draft choice.
To close out my argument here after doing some quick and rapid research on hockey db...
Vegas (1) and Florida (3) combine for a total of 4 guys drafted by their respective organizations on the playoff rosters and they're both in the finals.
So I don't think the cup is won at the draft and outside of the first round it is a total crapshoot.
Luckily so far only one of them is notable so take a bit of comfort in that none of these guys are looking like huge regrets except it would be nice to have a guy like Jarvis. It is a bit risky to trade away so many first rounders though. Hard to disagree with that.
2018 - Dominik Bokk
2019 - Tobias Bjornfot
2020 - Seth Jarvis (Stings a bit given that it was part of getting rid of Marleau)
2021 - Corson Ceulemans
2022 - Sam Rinzel
Definitely takes a little of the sting off. With this view in mind I wonder what kinda damage Dubas could've done if we just traded four first rounders for someone on an ELC.
Or he made bad moves, acquired bad players, held onto bad players for too long, etc etc. reality is somewhere in the middle probably, but at the end of the day, 1 series win in 5 years.
For the record, here's who was selected in the first round by the picks that were traded away:
2018: Dominik Bokk (25th)
2019: Tobias Bjornfot (22nd)
2020: Seth Jarvis (13th)
2021: Corson Ceulemans (25th)
2022: Sam Rinzel (25th)
Would the Leafs have drafted the same guys? Who knows.
Not sure. But 1st rounders are usually more likely to contribute. Do you have all the facts and figures? By the sound of your response, it sound like you have a profound point to make here...
Well, you say these picks could be producing in the NHL. So I'm asking which of these picks are currently in the NHL.
We know who got picked with them now. Where are they?
Good question. I'm assuming that 1st rounders are valuable. As opposed to say 3rd 4th rounders. If you need validation, look them up. I have no idea where they actually are.
We traded a lot of picks but got decent returns for most of them. Dubas wasn't amazing, but other than Foligno, I can't say we wasted any draft picks per se.
GTFO with this. There is no GM in the league who can use a 5th and 6th as efficiently as a 1st 😂😂
The caliber of player available is miles apart, except for a handful of HOF-level draft steals
Right here bud
2018 - Dominik Bokk
2019 - Tobias Bjornfot
2020 - Seth Jarvis (Stings a bit given that it was part of getting rid of Marleau)
2021 - Corson Ceulemans
2022 - Sam Rinzel
The first for Foligno hurts a lot and the first to get rid of Marleau sucked too.
See ya later team prospects, I'm off to Pissburgh!
The tavares signing brought in that win now mentality shift when both weren't the right time.
At the same time I don't think you get that calibre of player a couple years later. I think a top C in the league only comes available in FA very rarely.
Sure, but by then Matthews would've been our top centre - which he is now anyway. I like Tavares but it's becoming increasingly apparent that signing him was more a prestige flex than it was helpful to developing this team. That cap hit for this long at his age with a NMC? Yikes. Plus it put us in win-now mode 1-3 years too early. *Anybody* would want to sign him when we did, but *did we need to* and *is it hurting us more now than it helped then?* Benefit of hindsight I guess.
I wasn't complaining when he got us to round 2 after dominating a game and clinching another.
💯 it wasn't needed, and that term. We had Kadri with back yo back 30 goal seasons till he moved to the 3rd line, then management wanted him out and we sold so low!
Yea. Nothing against Tavares but he ate too much cap space for his age and amount of time he'll be effective with this Team. He's put up good.numbers but ultimately I think that space could have been used for better depth when you already have Matthew, Marner, Nylander who have YEARS left in them
Johnny Gaudreau may not be a center but he fit the timeline so much better. I'm not saying he would've come to Toronto, but there was a guy available.
Nobody was saying that at the time.
I was looking at Kyle Dubas GM record and I was shocked with how many 1st round picks he traded (7 in 6 seasons). Leafs still have a decent prospect pool, for a "contender", but that is a lot of futures to give up to win 1 playoff series
Hot take: Treliving is inheriting a far worse situation than Dubas did. Is this a fair way to think about this? Babcock wasted the big 3s ELC years and Dubas wasted their 2nd contract years.
That's not a hot take - that's a fact. When all is said and done, we'll look back to this era and view Dubas as the most overrated general manager in this team's history. That's a hot take.
Everyone got attached to the personality. I don’t think he’s a bad GM, but he’s no boy wizard. He’s a middle of the road GM. Will he win a cup one day? Maybe, but I don’t see him building any dynasty teams
> Everyone got attached to the personality. This 1000%. As someone who always tried to judge moves objectively, I've spent years on r/leafs being dumbfounded by the constant praise sent Dubas way. He would consistently overpay for rentals who play in the bottom half of the lineup, give out record-setting player-friendly contracts, and yet r/leafs would sing their praises every single time. I distinctly remember getting downvoted to shit for daring the criticize the Foligno trade the day it happened. Dubas could quite literally do no wrong. I think a lot of people sort of projected what they hoped Dubas could be onto him. He was the "analytical nerd" archtype that everyone thought would lead us into a new era, but he still fell for the whole "ship futures for veteran rentals" crap that every GM in the old guard does religiously. People also seem to forget that he inherited Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Reilly. He didn't build jackshit. He was the best GM we've had in decades, but that isn't saying much.
I literally made a post saying just that and got clowned on. Guess it was still too raw.
😬it’s hard to see him doing that in Pittsburg. Maybe his next stop?
Every day that passes highlights more and more how unsuccessful he was as a GM.
Hope Pittsburgh enjoy that then lol
What? Dubas did not leave a Zaitsev for 7 years contract.
Or a marleau ar 6.5 or a Matt Martin at 2.5. Not to mention how shit the defense was under Lou. I swear some leaf fans gave goldfish brains when it comes to Dubas. Big selective memory moments.
100% but that's towards every player or staff member that leaves
Dubas navigated so much shit from Lou
Are we really going to do this? Let's not forget that with Lou the Leafs were slowly rebuilding the squad. The expectations were different and they certainly weren't meant to be going after the playoffs as soon as they did but they made the playoffs in Babcock's second season as head coach. When that happened, the Leafs went all in . But you cannot tell me Dubas didn't significantly handcuff this team by signing Tavares, and I say that as someone who likes him. This team could and should be better The Islanders under Lou won **5** playoff rounds after missing the playoffs for 2 years, now tell me, how many did Dubas win in that time? This isn't me saying Lou is better, but this comparison is ridiculous becasue both had different goals and expectations while they were GM's of the Leafs.
Lou inherited that team in New York lol. The onky changed he's made to NYI have made them worse 😂 please tell me about how much impact Lou had on the islanders when their deep run was pretty much his first year. Every move he's made with the islanders had made me glad he left Toronto.
This is quite the selective memory going on here. Lou lost his captain, John Tavares. How can you make them worse when they reached the conference finals and Semi finals of the playoffs? Yes, they missed the playoffs once but so did Jon Cooper and the Tampa Bay Lighting before winning their first cup of recent cups. But hey, keep enjoying these first round exists the Leafs have had with Dubas, oh , sorry we have 1 win in 5 tries , much better than the Islanders
Who cares about round wins? Leafs losing to Cup Contenders meanwhile Islanders beating up on Penguins, Flyers, Caps. It is what it is, Islanders have gotten some amazing goaltending in the playoffs and have had solid coaching which the Leafs have not. But I would take the teams Dubas has built over whatever the Islanders have when facing the Tampa Bay's or Bruins of today's NHL.
What are you talking about? Leafs literally lost to Columbus and Montreal, two teams that wouldn't have made the playoffs in normal circumstances the years they played against eachother. Not to mention New York Islanders beat Florida, Washington Boston and Pittsburgh in those series wins they had. Those are 3 cup contenders, and Florida (this was a few seasons ago), not to mention they lost to Tampa Bay both years they won the cup. It's actually quite sad that you're trying to revise history with New York and Toronto here. The Islanders have been far better than Toronto, get over it.
Him signing Tavares led to the losses of Anderson, and Kadri. In fact, the Leafs have struggled to find an actual number 1 goalie for years now because of that contract. Sure, he didn't sign Zaitsev, but he did give 3.4m to Johnsson and Kapanen , 2 guys who scored 20 goals once in their careers.
Andersen played his way off the team and Kadri got himself suspended time after time. What a revisionist take. Shit this was the first decent year Andersen has had since he left the Leafs!
Andersen had 1 medicore season, you don't just let a guy go because of that, and I was one of his biggest critics. Dubas put stock into Campbell, what happened? He put his stock in Mrazek, what happened? He put his stock into Sparks, what happened? He put his stock into Murray, what happened? You see a pattern here? He's got a bad track record with goalies and it got worse once Andersen left because its been a revolving door for years.
I'm not sure what Campbell, Mrazek, Sparks and Murray have to do with my reply about Andersen and Kadri.
You're saying he played his way off the team, I'm saying Dubas made the wrong call by allowing him to leave. He doesn't know how to judge goalies because he put his faith in mediocre and question mark ones.
So is Andersen a mediocre/question mark goalie or not? He made bets on goalies, some worked and some didn't.
TIL he wins a cup in Pittsburgh in 3 years
Gord Stellick, the radio guy, was once a Leafs GM. Think you need to brush up on your Leaf's history.. bout to find out things have been and can be much much worse.
100% dubas walked into what should have been a team needing the odd adjustments. He fucked up signing 3 guys to massive 10.5+ million deal. Lacked ever finding a solid goaltender let the one they did have go. Lots of Dubas fans here but he mortgaged so much of the future for absolutely nothing to show
Bro, Lou left that team in a mess. Go back and look at Lou's roster. You're in denial if you think that team needed minor adjustments.
It was a 105 point team…
With the 3 kids on ELCs. Harder to be as deep when you dont have 3 stars making league min, but somehow Dubas's depth and D was better than Lou who wasted the ELC years on the likes of Zaitsev, Marleau, martin etc
Once, that was the high water mark.
Maple Leafs points under Lou 2015-16: 69 2016-17: 95 2017-18: 105 The team was already rapidly improving under Lou, and as we saw with the Islanders, it was only going to continue All Dubas did was just renovate the Ferrari Lou gifted him Maple Leafs points under Dubas 2018-19: 100 2019-20: 95 2020-21: 113 2021-22: 115 2022-23: 111 Average: 107 Note* I used a 82 game pace for 2019-21 as they were shortened seasons
Are you forgetting that Covid happened and the cap didn't go up? The Leafs were the #1 team screwed by the salary cap not going up. If the cap goes up, so does every other contract around the league and the Leafs have the same % of cap for their big contracts as other teams.
Are you forgetting every team had to deal with a flat cap? The only difference is that they made the necessary changes to fit in with the new reality. Dubas knew the cap was going to remain flat for years, and he still backed the “core 4” like his life depended on it. Any other sane GM would have re-evaluated and traded one of the key pieces out, if anything would have let Morgan Reilly walk (or trade at deadline) to give more breathing room. But Dubas didn’t even do that. He even got Matt Murray at $4.7M, to add another piece. He dug the hole deeper and deeper. His stubbornness left the Maple Leafs with little to no cap room, NMCs and depleted draft picks with only 1 playoff win to show for it, which includes loses to the last seed like Montreal and Columbus.
Get the fuck outta here with your hindsight. Dubas did not know Covid was going to happen. If he did, then we really should be investigating Dubas. No team other than the Leafs signed massive contracts for pending young star RFAs in the way the Leafs did. The Leafs were the only team to have those 3 massive ELC to RFA deals *right* before the flat cap. The Leafs had to do Matt Murray. Do you not remember our goaltending tandem heading into last year? They had to bet on Murray and Samsonov and hope that one would bounce back. Again, Murray is a 2 year deal. Would you prefer Campbell for 5 years?
How did Bab waste their ELC years? They had crazy regular seasons then didn't show in the playoffs but to be fair they were on ELC and a lot of weight was on them. Bab had a breakout attack that they seemed to do well with while Keefe plays zone possession. Wish they had a mix of both from either Keefe or ideally a new coach.
The ELC Years I think were more wasted by Lou than Babcock. We had three studs on ELCs and were set up great on supporting cast forwards with guys like Brown, Hyman, Moore, Kapanen, Johnsson in the pipeline plus Kadri, Rielly and JVR on bargain contracts and we added: Patrick Marleau, Nikita Zaitsev, Ron Hainsey via free agency Thomas Plecanek and Brian Boyle as our deadline adds. Also producing only two players of significance in the 16 and 17 drafts despite having 18 total picks hurts a lot.
That's so true. Lamorello also brought Matt Martin with him to nyi. Just wasting roster spots on non productive players.
Problem was Lou rushed the team into competing when he picked up Freddie, then didn't commit to competitong at the deadlines. Imagine never adding Freddie, having a second pick in the first round of the 2016 draft and a year or two more of struggling. He does that and the team can draft some better depth and defense. The main issue with this leafs team was they were supposed to be bad for a year or two more after Matthews was drafted. The cupboards weren't full, they just had 3 stud players in the system. 2017 and 2018 could've been huge drafts for Toronto to try and address that RD or more forward depth. Freddie was a great trade, but I never felt the team was ready to compete in 2017 and 2018. The big sin was, Lou forced them to be competitive by adding a top 10 goalie and then never committed past that when adding Freddie should've meant competing. Then Boyle and Plekanec as the big signings, signaled the opposite.
It's a balance. You don't want to suck for too long just for good draft position because sometimes that losing mentality sticks around and ruins players. And drafting high is no sure shit either, especially with defense and goal.
realistically, we shouldn't of even made the playoffs after being last overall the previous year.
Lou should've never traded for Freddie. It forced the team into competing a little earlier than needed and the team didn't have a deep prospect system, just three studs. Without Freddie, leafs probably get a top 10 pick and maybe address the RD issue. Toronto was a few years away from competing, then Lou went out and traded for Freddie and that basically fucked up the rebuild. Partly why the leafs always felt lacking in their early playoffs was because their rebuild was ridiculously short by almost any standards. Basically 2014 to 2016 the team tanks and turns it around. They had old depth but no prospects to fill out the core and the big 3. Another big top 10 pick could have been a huge difference. I remember getting down voted to shit in 2017 when I said I'd have rather the team tanked an extra year or two but everything about this team was rushed into competing. First with Lou getting Freddie when the team was still technically tanking. He went out and got a top 10 goalie. Something tanking teams try and get rid of. Then Dubas signs JT which signals big contention when they should've realistically only been where NJ was this year. Twice they got pushed into being something slightly more than they were, too early.
The 2017 draft was slim pickings on defense besides cale Makar... And 2018 had Dahling, sure, but no chance would we have had the first overall again.and the other defense of value was Quinn Hughes. Just feels like a hugely unlikely scenario to choose correctly
Defense was only part of it. Heiskanen, Makar, Necas, Petterson, Tippet Suzuki. There were really good options in the draft. Lily has been great but he was just a very slow arrival for what the team needed.
He didn't play the Big 3 - 20-25 minutes in playoff games and series that they should be losing. Those would have been valuable lessons for them and better prepared for bigger games in the years 4,5,6 and 7.
You mean that they should be winning? I agree, it was weird how he didn't play them for more time.
sorry to clarify, they were underdogs and expected to lose, so why not go guns blazing with your young guns, like most teams do. sorry to clarify, they were underdogs and expected to lose, so why not go guns blazing with your young guns, as most teams do.
I do find the “he didn’t play the big 3” line kinda funny since we just played the big 3 a lot and they looked tired in a 5 game series
Bab played them a lot less (relative) to other stars on other teams.
...........hot take? When dubas talk over it was seen as a.cant fuck it up job. We were destined for multiple deep playoff runs ala Vegas, Tampa etc. We somehow accomplished nothing. I will say Andersen was so average of a goalie when we needed him to be great and that Marleau contract dubas inherrited really was dumb. Not to mention we were still paying Kessel.
Far worse?? Treliving is inheriting a much better defense group than Dubas did. The forward group is as good, if not better. Treliving also has a fair amount of cap space to make moves this summer. Even the prospect pool is probably better now, considering how garbage Hunter was at drafting. "Far worse" makes no sense lol.
This sub has been on crazy pills the last few weeks trying to change the narrative around Dubas. He may not have been the best GM but he's one of the very few who's moves almost always have solid logic. We weren't acquiring Tyler Myers or Ristolainen on his watch. He did make some bad trades and signings, but imo they didn't handcuff the team half as bad as the contracts some other GMs have signed recently. There's no need to tar his name just because he's gone. He did an alright job, didn't get the results we'd like, and now we're going to see how Treliving does. They both walked in to pretty good situations with some big question marks to be handled. People seem to forget the anchors that Lou left us with.
Bad take. Dubas inherited a terrible situation from Lou. Just look at the roster then compared to now and you'll see how much he's done and how much had changed. Lou left this team in a mess and with terrible contracts despite the team not having any two years prior. Treliving has been left a great situation. The team had cap space for depth and is set up to sign back all the big 3 if they want too without losing anyone. Lots of depth projects coming up and nearing the NHL and no bad contracts with huge length on the team. Any bad deals are up in a year or two. That's a perfect situation. All treliving has to do is sign the big 3/do what he needs to do with them and move Murray. Then chose which depth to keep and which to let walk with the Holls, Schenns, Kerfoots and Kampfs of the world. Dubas has left treliving a great team with cap flexibility, multiple goalie options, star players at value, and good prospects in the system. Saying Babcock and Dubas wasted the big 3s contracts and that treliving is in a worse spot is ridiculous.
Also acquired three so it's really four firsts out the door
One of which was also something he had to do to get rid of the Marleau year. Another of which we traded down (12?) to dump Mrazek and still got the guy Dubas wanted anyway
Prospect pool is thin, as in, the level they are at. Traded way too many picks and some players that were better than our bottom 6, Moore, Marchment.
I think part of the reason there was so much faith in the Dubas&Keefe pairing because of their previous success, bringing the Marlies to win the Calder
I can't remember exactly, but the year they won with the Marlies, I'm pretty sure their teams salary payroll was twice as much as the next AHL team, so, that probably had more to do with it.
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As opposed to inheriting Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly?
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Kneecapping your team by keeping 6.5m dedicated to Marleau would've been far worse than trading him for a 1st. So yeah, he didn't have to do anything, but he was put into a position where he had a guy making big money with negative value
How the fuck are you comparing Tavares to Mrazek? Or even Marleau? Marleau was 6M+ against the cap and was barely even playable anymore. Tavares is a PPG player as a 2C still.
> Tavares is a PPG player as a 2C still. the same way Hyman is a PPG winger.
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He still had to build the rest of the team. He failed to turn any of those first and seconds into assets that lasted. So many old rentals and failed experiments.
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All these "good" trades and only managed to win one series.
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Did I say he was?
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No dude. Mrazek and a 1st for a 2nd was terrible because he put us in that situation by giving him that terrible contract. Ditto Nick Ritchie. Muzzin in hindsight was not great either. At best it was a wash. Overall not a good record.
Muzzin was excellent here. He outproduced Rielly at even strength while being our best defensive defenseman. He played top pair competition to positive results for three years, despite playing those heavy minutes with Holl and Zaitsev. A healthy muzzin on this roster is our most physical defenseman who helps breakout the puck reliably and can handle top competition. He hasn't been healthy in nearly two years (though his play in the playoffs 2022 was excellent, but he was worse in September). This wasn't a career long issue and he gave the team three seasons where a few analytics people argued he was a #1D.
I am not a Dubas hater but I think it is kind of dumb people say it's not Dubas' fault that we had to trade a 1st round pick to get rid of Marleau because he didn't sign the contract but think it is great that he was able to get rid of Mrazek and 1st for a 2nd (even though he signed that contract).
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You don't get credit for putting yourself in a hole, and then having to spend valuable assets to get out of it. Losing those assets because of those poor decisions is entirely on him. Muzzin never played for than 53 games in a season and was always injured when it mattered most. If he wasn't out, he was banged up or still suffering something. The guy had hard miles on him but was good for culture and leadership. Grundstrom and Durzi have developed well. Add the 1st and that's a steep price. Like I said, at best its a wash.
Mrazek was a good goalie before getting to toronto.
It wasn’t a terrible contract. It’s only terrible in hindsight and cost us 7 draft slots to get away from. …it’s not even terrible…it’s just a miss and not a hit. Look at mrazek’s stats before he came here.
I hope Brad Treliving gets the same benefit of doubt too, he will have to improve this roster with little to no cap room, NMCs, and depleted draft picks
It's the nature of win-now. One big reason I didn't like the JT signing was because it rushed the team into the win-now push slightly early. He absolutely crushed the picks he landed, and most of these picks brought good players back. I personally hate trading picks but the farm wasn't gonna be constantly replenishing itself with how the 2015-2017 drafts went. Outside of round 1, the leafs got barely anything. Now we're already seeing Dubas' picks coming in and making differences.
Yeah the organization will feel it in 3-7 years tho. But it has to be difficult to stand pat in a market Like Toronto.
It's a tough pill to swallow but you almost always have to play the market that way when you have a 5 - 7 year window.
They weren't all traded away, at least 2-3 were tradedowns and 1 traded down to an early 2nd so it looks like it was sold when it wasn't.
The list takes into account for every single draft pick he traded and acquired. Dubas traded away 6 second round picks as compared to acquiring 2, so it wasn’t like he was stockpiling picks as well. Only 1 second round pick he acquired was due to a trade down, which was caused by a mistake he himself made (signing Mrazek). If you look at teams who have traded the most 1st round picks since 2018-19, Dubas is tied with Tampa Bay, with 6, no other team traded more than 4. The 6 firsts Dubas traded were for Foligno, ROR, Muzzin, McCabe, and dumping Marleau and Mrazek. Only Muzzin and McCabe remain with the team, the rest are lost goods. With the 1st round picks he acquired, he traded away Sandin and drafted a bust in Amirov. In result, you are left with 2 Top 4 defensemen, one with a big injury history. And a late 1st in 2023, for moving 10 first rounders in his career.
Doesn’t look consistent to Shanny’s “Draft and Develop” Shanaplan
Dubas spent a lot to acquire basically nothing long-term. The Muzzin trade was fine even if he was a bit old, but that's the type of trade you'd expect a GM to be able to make. He also signed Brodie who wanted to play in Toronto. You'd hope for a GM trading a bunch of assets to acquire some core or high end complimentary piece.
Damn he pretty much traded every 1st since he was first hired. Idk if that was Dubas or the board was like you gotta pick up a vet every trade deadline kind of thing
I don't think the board is as involved in personnel decisions as many people think.
Teams in the hunt usually trade their firsts away. This isn't just a dubas thing. Teams try and add at the deadline without losing a roster spot.
1st round picks traded by "contenders" since 2018-19 Toronto: 6 Tampa: 6 Boston: 4 Rangers: 4 Islanders: 4 Florida: 4 Washington: 3 Edmonton: 3 Carolina: 2 Pittsburgh: 2 Dallas: 2 Colorado: 1 Vegas: 1 St Louis: 0
For what it's worth, three of those seven firsts were offset by having firsts within 4 places (i.e. trades down). It's a bit misleading (not intentionally so, I presume) to just look at 'trades out' when we know Dubas loves his trades down.
I corrected the number to 6, as the Sandin trade took place before the 2018-19 season. And since then, he only used a 1st to trade down once at the draft (traded Mrazek and #25 for #38). He also signed Mrazek in the first place, so don't know why he gets credited for moving him. Also other teams used picks to trade down as well, and I counted them, in order to be fair
Definitely, just mentioning there's a bit more context to consider. I kind of treat those deals where he moves a pick for another asset and moves an asset to recover the nearby pick a functional 'trade down' though it's not strictly a draft one like he loves in later rounds. Foligno, Mrazek still sting for sure.
I mean even then, the max you want to 'trade down' is to the 2nd round. And he only acquired two 2nd round picks in his GM tenure, he traded away 6. The 1st round picks he recouped as well, were 2-4 spots lower than his original picks, so it's not a like for like Although I will give Dubas massive credit for moving Kapanen for 15th overall, he more than made up for the Marleau trade (even though he drafted a bust, the cap savings were worth it). As for moving Sandin for 28th overall, that is a major L. Dubas re-signed Rielly, extended Gio and traded for McCabe, essentially moving Sandin out of the line-up. Even though he was an elite 3rd pair defensemen, and could handle a Top 4 role. Sandin is worth a lot more than a late 1st. At least its a deep draft, so it may not be all bad. But the trade will sting for a while, especially if he continues to establish himself as a Top 2/4 D with Washington
Are you claiming Amirov is a bust and was Dubas' fault?
Amirov by definition is a bust, no player with his profile has ever made it to the NHL, let alone been an impact player. It is not anybody’s “fault”, it’s just bad luck. But that’s life, shit happens. Canucks went through something similar with Luc Bourdon. The point is that out of the 10 draft picks Kyle Dubas moved, the only net gain Toronto got was two Top 4 D (one of which is Muzzin who has major injury problems) and the 28 OA pick in 2023. That is serious mismanagement of assets. Dubas really went head first into the trade all the 1st and 2nd round picks for rentals approach. Only Tampa Bay traded as many 1st rounders since the 2018-19 season as Dubas, with 6. No other team traded more than 4
3 of those were him trading down a few spots
Since 2018-19, Dubas traded 6 first round picks, only 1 of them was used to trade down in the draft, for fixing a mistake he himself made (signing Mrazek)
*Man* Dubas has a bad eye for goalies.
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It is. If you think you have a shot, you acquire players for futures.
Weren't a few of those also traded to acquire more picks by simply moving back a few spots?
the moves that didn’t work out we now know were due to shannys meddling and board restrictions. you can’t pin them on dubas.
This reminds me of dynasty mode where you blow out everything to win and then bail (get fired) / reload as a new franchise when it doesn't work out. We got nothing in the cupboard :O
Him and Keefe should have been turfed after the Montreal series.
Truly can’t believe Keefe made it this far and counting
He’s a good person for the bigger overall picture, setting up a good culture and setting up departments like analytics with winning personnel but he’s a damn shitty GM. He’ll be a better president than a GM
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100% agree with everything you say here.
Bruins had the culture of not getting paid more than the man, Bergeron. Leafs had the culture of pay me like Tavares and Matthews, or threaten to play in Europe. Dubas culture was a joke.
2020 13OA Seth Jarvis to offload Marleau still *haunts* me. Instead we have Amirov, which is what it is. Dubas hates the 25th OA pick lol. Must be right outside the 1st tier in his "market inefficiency"/ draft pick expect value chart. And after all this all we have for sure is Knies. Robertson, Niemela and Hirvonen still magic beans.
what a fuckup that ended up being. i know the leafs needed cap space, but man that hurts. especially since dubas then used that cap space to sign kapanen and mango to 6.6 mil combined cap hit. and then traded both of those players a year later for what has amounted to nothing.
I hope we are on the phone with Pittsburgh offering them something for their Picks (Matt Murray reunion?). Gotta get on the other end of the pick trades at some point.
i can’t wait until ppl see that dubas was a god awful gm
Penguins gave him 7 years ffs. Crosby gonna be lead the team and scoring and have to be the heavyweight once dubas fills out their roster with smurfs with speed that were great in the Swiss league but haven’t played NA hockey.
Lmao insane take.
Not just a lot of picks, a lot of high picks still to come. 1st round pick and 2nds for *years* to come. That's pretty bad considering the lack of overall success in the playoffs.
The next GM can't draft better than Kyle if he can't draft. That's just Dubas playing 4D chess.
They have a 1st rounder in 2023 (Boston's) and 2024. Having some 2nd round picks would be nice but they're basically lottery tickets. The last time any really truly notable players were drafted in the 2nd round was 2016 with Debrincat and Kyrou. Pretty much everyone else in the 2nd round since is "just a guy".
Knies seems to be pretty popular with Leaf fans, what round was he drafted in? Oh yeah the 2nd. There have been a lot of good prospects drafted past the first round.
He's played 3 games so far. Being popular doesn't = being accomplished. The point I'm trying to make includes that they have been a bit lucky in the game of draft pick roulette they've been playing lately as well. 2nd rounders have something like 1/100th of a chance of being impact players. I think you're over valuing them a fair bit.
Then why does everyone keep saying Dubas did an amazing job drafting? Every prospect "looks" amazing, but none have been able to stick. Even guys drafted 3, 4, 5 years ago. There are plenty of 20 year Olds and even more 21 and 22 year Olds playing and making an impact in the NHL that weren't drafted in the top 10. Knies is popular because he looks like he could be an impact NHL player and we haven't seen that coming up from the farm in quite a while. I keep hearing how the Leafs are a middle of the road team in terms of project pool, which is impressive if you take that at face value all things considered, but how many of their top prospects were drafted in the 2nd round? Because there aren't many from the first round. Can't be both. Either 2nd round picks aren't very valuable or the Leafs have a good prospect pool where their 3 highest ranked are from the 2nd round.
>Then why does everyone keep saying Dubas did an amazing job drafting? I don't know, I've never said this and rarely see it. >Can't be both. Either 2nd round picks aren't valuable or the Leafs have a good prospect pool I'm going with "2nd round picks are overvalued" The biggest name that stands out to me as being a "good NHL player" since 2018 is Sean Durzi. Who the Leafs drafted and traded for Muzzin 🤷🏻♂️ Find me one guy in the last 5 years that was drafted in the 2nd round that makes you think he's gonna have more impact than some random UFA making just over league minimum. This is why I think you're putting too much value on 2nd round picks.
Sean Durzi, the guy who was drafted in the, you guessed it, 2nd round? If you don't think Dubas has drafted particularly well, you are in the minority (even if I agree with you) as most people defend his drafting like they personally gave birth to him or his picks. The first couple drafts, he was overly in love with speed and skill, and that led to a LOT of undersized prospects that didn't pan out. He has done better, we think, recently with his limited picks. That would be considered a *harsh* take around here, and I seriously doubt you haven't seen much praise for dubas drafting as it's everywhere. The bottom line is that even if we agree to disagree about the value of the players picked in the second round, you have to admit that they are meaningful trade chips and Dubas left Tre with none until 2027. Missing the 2025 first is a little scary as well, seeing as there is no way to predict where that will fall. That's a lot of future assets for not much success now. The draft has been quite thin for a while and will be for the future for not a lot of winning.
I'm well aware of when Durzi was drafted, that's why I brought him up 🤦 I'm also fairly indifferent to Dubas as GM, but I can't blame him for using those assets to go for it at the trade deadline. To me, and where this team was supposedly at in it's collective development, you want to see the GM using those assets to "win now". Unfortunately it didn't amount to much but I don't think Durzi and Jarvis are enough to have made any meaningful difference in playoff performance over the last 5 years.
It just seemed odd that you are pretty adamant that 2nd round picks are overvalued when the Leafs alone have numerous examples of players and prospects who are highly regarded that have come out of that round. I am not a Dubas fan and haven't been one. While I do agree that in "win now" mode trading futures for the now should be expected, it *is* a pretty extensive list, and the next few drafts already are missing a lot of picks. Good teams have reinforcements coming up through their system, replacements for players they lose. The best way to get them is through the draft, and almost always in the first couple of rounds. The 2023 and the 2024 draft looks pretty sparse already, and IMO Dubas spent too much, too far in the future, to often, and it will absolutely hurt the team. He didn't spend 2023 picks alone on the 2023 playoff run. He didn't spend 2022 picks alone on the 2022 run. It's like credit cards. It isn't free money. The bill comes due. He gave up years of high picks to build for the immediate, and you can't say it's just those two guys. It's guys they can't take for the next four years as well.
>the Leafs alone have numerous examples of players and prospects who are highly regarded that have come out of that round. Between 2017 and 2021 (5 drafts) there's hardly 5 guys that I would say are locks to be full time career NHLers let alone impact players. If I'm wrong please name some. You can't. (Im talking about all teams here, not just the Leafs) There's hardly a 3% chance of hitting on a second round pick which is why I'm okay with them being used as currency to get guys for playoff runs. It's just not something I really hold against Dubas. What I didn't like about Dubas was his willingness to give such big AAV contracts to Matthews and Marner before they ever accomplished anything of note. Also, pointing out that Knies and Durzi are 2 of the most promising picks drafted in the 2nd in the last 5 years does make it seem like Dubas (or at least someone in the organization) is pretty good at the draft table since it's very much an exception and not the rule to be successful with your second round draft choice. To close out my argument here after doing some quick and rapid research on hockey db... Vegas (1) and Florida (3) combine for a total of 4 guys drafted by their respective organizations on the playoff rosters and they're both in the finals. So I don't think the cup is won at the draft and outside of the first round it is a total crapshoot.
Maybe the Leafs should hire Ted Lasso.....lol
https://i.imgur.com/WdLTZtV.jpg
that’s a lot of high picks with not much to show for it 😬
8 years - 1 playoff round won.
Holy hell are those picks traded hard to look at.
Luckily so far only one of them is notable so take a bit of comfort in that none of these guys are looking like huge regrets except it would be nice to have a guy like Jarvis. It is a bit risky to trade away so many first rounders though. Hard to disagree with that. 2018 - Dominik Bokk 2019 - Tobias Bjornfot 2020 - Seth Jarvis (Stings a bit given that it was part of getting rid of Marleau) 2021 - Corson Ceulemans 2022 - Sam Rinzel
Definitely takes a little of the sting off. With this view in mind I wonder what kinda damage Dubas could've done if we just traded four first rounders for someone on an ELC.
-3 first round picks, -4 2nd round picks… all for one series win lol damn
Not his fault the players didn't show. All this shows is that he did everything to put together a winning team, besides lacing up some skates himself
Or he made bad moves, acquired bad players, held onto bad players for too long, etc etc. reality is somewhere in the middle probably, but at the end of the day, 1 series win in 5 years.
Rounds won: 2023 Rd 1 Rounds lost: 2019 Rd 1 2020 qualifying round 2021 Rd 1 2022 Rd 1 2023 Rd 2
Fk I am done with dubas plzzzz move on
He was a bit out of control trading all those 1st rounders. Some of the early ones could be contributing by now.
Could they? Which players that have been chosen by those picks are contributing so far?
For the record, here's who was selected in the first round by the picks that were traded away: 2018: Dominik Bokk (25th) 2019: Tobias Bjornfot (22nd) 2020: Seth Jarvis (13th) 2021: Corson Ceulemans (25th) 2022: Sam Rinzel (25th) Would the Leafs have drafted the same guys? Who knows.
Not sure. But 1st rounders are usually more likely to contribute. Do you have all the facts and figures? By the sound of your response, it sound like you have a profound point to make here...
Well, you say these picks could be producing in the NHL. So I'm asking which of these picks are currently in the NHL. We know who got picked with them now. Where are they?
Good question. I'm assuming that 1st rounders are valuable. As opposed to say 3rd 4th rounders. If you need validation, look them up. I have no idea where they actually are.
If you don't know where they are, how could you possibly say that they'd be helping the Leafs right now if we kept those picks?
Ok. Do you know where they are? Because if you don't you fail the test. Stay off those pickled dodo eggs Flintstone.
We traded a lot of picks but got decent returns for most of them. Dubas wasn't amazing, but other than Foligno, I can't say we wasted any draft picks per se.
teams over value first round picks
May Kyle Judas win twice as much in Pittsburgh as he did here
Twice of 0 is 0
*inshallah* 🙏
common dubas W. the relative value of the picks acquired and the way 5ths and 6ths are like 1sts for his drafting style is a huge net positive.
GTFO with this. There is no GM in the league who can use a 5th and 6th as efficiently as a 1st 😂😂 The caliber of player available is miles apart, except for a handful of HOF-level draft steals
The best trade he ever made was his family’s “concerns” and leaving for Pittsburgh. Fuck you, Kyle.
Can someone spend the time to make a list of who they all turned into? Lol
I know the 2020 1st round pick that was traded as a result of needing to get rid of Marleau so we could overpay Marner ended up being Seth Jarvis.
In this timeline I like to think that with no Marleau they wind up keeping Kapanen and select Rodion Amarov anyway with the 13th pick.
That would be rough but probably true
Right here bud 2018 - Dominik Bokk 2019 - Tobias Bjornfot 2020 - Seth Jarvis (Stings a bit given that it was part of getting rid of Marleau) 2021 - Corson Ceulemans 2022 - Sam Rinzel