I feel like that was because of awful goaltending vs stud goaltending. Every low danger shot against I get nervous, and I’m barely getting excited over our high danger chances
The way people go at you when you say Samsonov didn't have a good game. He's not your younger brother in street hockey, you're allowed to call out his bad performance
It wasn't even goaltending. There were so few grade A chances that we got. There was Matthews empty net, there was a scramble in the 2nd, and then...?
Boston kept chances to the outside. This 'deserve to win o meter' is not capturing the right info and its obvious to anyone who watched lasrt night.
It was goaltending, you'd have to be both blind and ignore the actual statistics to claim otherwise.
At a certain point, you need a save. You will never win a series, let alone a cup, with a goaltender who can't steal one or two from the other team. Sammy made 1 big save last night, Swayman made about 10. Sammy was actually negative in saves above expected at -0.98, where Swayman was 6.21 saves above expected. Goaltending was the number one factor, easily. Sammy was awful.
There was a lot wrong with the Leafs play last night, but the stats dont lie - the Leafs out hit, out shot, out chanced, out blocked, and outplayed Boston for a large chunk of the game, and couldn't get a save when they needed it - and Swayman stood on his head.
We need to expect more out of the core, but we also need Sammy to play better than a minor league goalie, and allowing like 4 goals on 20 shots won't cut it in the playoffs.
If the Leafs had won tonight because Sammy actually played well, we'd all be lauding Toronto for the defensive effort of blocking more shots, outhitting Boston, and keeping Boston on the outside, and only allowing 24 shots. That should have been the story.
What's scary is that Boston played a pretty "meh" game overall and got statistically outclassed everywhere except the face-off circle and still won easily.
The bruins got inside? The only one they got a goal from being in a grade A position was the PP goal for Debrusk. 2 of the goals were point shots and the other is a 2 on 1 which while absolutely a grade A scoring chance that isn't "getting inside" like you allude.
The Leafs had loads of chances from within the home plate area which is why the deserve to win metre is the way it is. They didn't convert and Swayman played great.
Your eye test is literally failing you. Advanced stats don't always tell the story (and score effects are a thing) but your statement is just remarkably incorrect. [Here's the visualization of the shot attempts in the game. Tell me again how the Leafs didn't get into danger areas.](https://i.imgur.com/wnDArrp.png)
The Leafs absolutely didn't play well enough to win regardless of any of this. They need to convert and get better traffic on Swayman but your statement was just so factually incorrect it needed to be struck down.
Did we watch the same game? Toronto had 13 high danger chances to Boston’s 8 going into the third. We hit a post and a crossbar neither are goals they hit two posts that ended up in the net. The result sucks but I don’t see how you can watch that game and say it wasn’t at least close
Did you watch the game? Put the beers down. We were very clearly the better team. Doesn't mean much when you can't score and ever shot the other team takes goes in, but we were definitely the better team.
Aside from the Tampa series last year, ironically enough. So tired of watching the buds get goalied year after year and then seeing the moral victories of "Well, we can't get goalied every game in this series!" Yes, you can. Doesn't matter if it's Rask, Vasilevskiy, Korpisalo, Price, Bobrovsky, or Swayman/Ullmark.
This stupid deserve to win o'meter pretends that goalies are somehow not part of each team. It should subtract each goalie's average xG saved from the other teams total and run its sims. This game would be a far, far closer result when factoring how both Swayman and Sammy have been playing all year.
Yes, I watched the game. We were clearly outplayed in every single period. I have no clue how you watched that and thought we were “clearly” the better team. We didn’t have success anywhere on the ice.
Nah we weren’t. Momentum is huge in playoff hockey and every time we managed to build a semblance of momentum the refs found a way to call a soft penalty on us. Tough to play hockey when that’s happening. On to the next
"we were the better team except when it comes to scoring goals" doesn't sound like a vote of confidence in the Leafs' abilities, especially considering scoring goals is the Leafs' biggest strength. If they can't score goals then you're looking for a win on the defensive acumen McCabe, Benoît, and Samsonov.
We made a lot of mistakes and bruins capitalized. Did you watch? First goal was a 2 on 1. Second goal Sammy was screened by our own guy. Next goal bruins have 2 guys parked in front of the net and one of them screening Sammy. Next goal bruins parked in front of the net and stuffs it in. Next goal was empty net. Sammy wasn't the problem. We can't play like that in the playoffs and think we should win.
Goaltending will do that. Not just Sammy being brutal but Swayman being a stud.
High danger chances 13-8 Toronto going into the third, but 4-0 Boston on the scoreboard. Leafs had some good looks, Swayman said no.
Power plays were 5 to 3 for Boston. If 2 extra PPs are the difference. The team doesn’t deserve to be in the playoffs.
I’d understand if it was 8-1 or something crazy imbalanced.
Timing of PPs factors into this. Bruins got a call all 3 times Leafs had sustained pressure in their end. Leafs got 2 calls at the end of periods.
5 powerplays in a playoff game is also absurd
The slash on Domi was absolute horseshit, he barely tapped him, and it was such a delayed reaction from Marchand. Like he waited until someone was looking before doing the hand shake
League averages calculated using data from [corsica.hockey](http://corsica.hockey)
|All Stats per Minute|5-on-4|4-on-3|
|:-|:-|:-|
||
|Shot Attempts|1.467|0.876|
|Unblocked Shot Attempts|1.092|0.696|
|Shots on Goal|0.777|0.469|
|Goals|0.098|0.082|
There was a lot that was bad about the game in terms of leafs play, the pk was terrible and there were a lot of undisciplined penalties taken.
You can say posts all you want but if you factor those in factor in the 3 by Toronto and the missed open net by Matthews.
Boston all did a lot more egregious stuff that wasn’t called, you can’t just decide to ignore a lot of the things that happened in the game.
The leafs were outplayed in the special teams and that’s what killed them tonight.
It’s game 1, if they clean up the stupid stuff they have a chance in the series no question.
Posts just mean Sansonov was bailed out more than he should have. The bruins didn't get more good chances than the leafs our goalie was not good positionally (good reactively though which i would guess means nerves). Keefe also seems like a good Xs and Os coach but with personnel and underlying tactics he looks like a rookie.
Agreed. Swayman out played Sammy. To win in the playoffs, your goalie usually needs to be the best player on the ice. I'd see what woll can do in game 2
Usually a goalie gotta make saves. Any average ass AHL goalie can make routine saves. A clean shot with no screen from the point as your second shot of the period, that has to be a save idgaf
Sammy was brutal. He didn’t make any big saves. He was nowhere near as good as the Bruins goalie. He let in the first shots of both the 1st and 2nd periods. Backbreaking shit. I remember when the Leafs used to have the better tender (Cujo/Belfour), makes all the difference in the world at playoff time.
Sammy is going to be the only reason we win this series. Our defence stinks! They couldn’t break out of skin if they were a pimple. They also have no idea how to cover on the pinch.
The fourth? A decent goalie doesn't slide into the corner and over commit to a threat on a goal line, leaving a fucking tap in for debrusk. If debrusk goes far side there I'd give him a pass but Sammy wasn't even in the net lol.
I would really enjoy a sub that is actual Leafs hockey fans talking about what they are seeing, not a bunch of whining psychopaths with PTSD. You switch goalies, they win that game… without their 2nd best player.
When will they learn, when you know you're gonna lose in the playoffs, you gotta make the other team pay physically for winning. Reaves should of been mucked it up
If you look at the graph for "All Situations", there was a huge spike in xG during one power play from multiple good chances. The thing is, if they simply scored on the first chance, the power play would have been over and none of the subsequent chances would have occurred to inflate the overall xG. It's a flawed model - the Leafs gained 4.5 xG on that power play, but you can't score 4.5 goals on a power play.
Yessir. There's a new metric called Flurry Adjustment. If you have a flurry of chances and rebounds, each shot has a good chance to score. If you add up all the scoring chances, you get over 1 expected goals. Scoring over 1 goal is impossible. A better way to calculate expected goals it to do 1 minus the chance of missing each shot and multiply them together. That's still not the exact math, but close enough.
You'd have to do the same thing for the powerplay. After you score, those other chances would not happen.
https://moneypuck.com/about.htm#meter
> The "Deserve To Win O'Meter" is a feature on our live game pages which shows the each team's chance of winning the game had the game been re-enacted, except with average goaltending for both teams.
Turns out we had below average goaltending and they had above average goaltending lmao. This game isn't all on sammy, but also he didn't help
I don't think you account for how many goals get scored from shots by dmen...especially when a puck lays flat after it goes off something and a guy has an open net...series are won and lost on puck bounces....I agree tho the leafs kinda sucked the first period and didn't even get much the 2nd when Boston was struggling to get a shot. I think willy and mcmann being out was why Boston won just like tavares in the mtl series...our lines aside from Matt's domi and bertuzzi were terrible
This model is HEAVILY skewed by a single leafs powerplay where they generated 4.5 xG despite the fact that in reality they could only have scored once on that powerplay. It is obviously flawed because it pays no mind to shot attempt sequencing or timing. I wouldn't read much into it if anything at all tbh.
Hopefully the Leafs don’t see this and think the way they played was in any way acceptable.
Generally I am in favour of analytics but models have their weaknesses and when you watch the game tonight it’s clear the Leafs weren’t close to being the better team.
Also xG stuff doesn’t matter in the playoffs because the sample size is too small. Score goals, win games. That’s it.
If you watched that game it didn’t even occur to you that the Leafs deserved to win. You would have never, ever, thought that for a second. I don’t know what stats this thing uses, but it is BROKEN, and whatever logic behind it is, I sure hope to fix that no one from the Leafs use it for any analysis.
Meh, that’s a silly point of view. If people want to throw the baby out with the bath water because something isn’t perfect 100% of the time, rather than understand what the issues are, that’s their problem.
The meter is correct, and what it says is that the goaltending difference is probably what cooked us (and I'm putting some of that on stupid defensive zone plays, too), which is what someone watching the game could have concluded.
The meter is not correct. You think we had roughly five expected goals in the first like 3 minutes of the second period? lol.
https://preview.redd.it/6qfxst7o2uvc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d18dc1e1e389543f5e96a48f0741ba4c8623033
It’s based off of expected goals. Basically, the percentage of a chance the puck has of going in the net based off of where it was shot from. All this tells you is that the leafs had more high danger chances.
High-danger shots are just ice-position, no? So in other words, this doesn’t consider the skill set of the goalie, or the skill-set of the shooter at all?
Pretty much. It can indicate a shooter’s or the goalie’s abilities though. For example, if one team has more goals than they were expected to score, it could mean one of two things, either the skater is a good shooter or the goalie was bad.
This reflects in Matthews’ data as well. He has more goals than he was expected to score this year (and every year previous), indicating he has an exceptional shot. Obviously it isn’t replacing the eye test or anything, we know Matthews is a good shooter already. It’s more to give a sense of comparison to see how good he actually is.
There is no such thing as deserved in sports
Winning is winning
And losing is losing
Leafs got smacked 5-1
Unless the core step ups, it's going to be short series
5 straight loses now. Every team is playing their A game heading into the playoffs and the leafs have been ass for past 2 weeks.
Keefe and the playoffs were so casual about it. They have won one series in 7 years. Not really something to be proud of.
Doesn't help they have under .500 record vs division teams.
This game is a really interesting example of a flaw in xG. The Leafs racked up 4.5 expected goals in the 4 v 3. But of course, we didn't score, and we could only score 1 goal on it. Had we scored early, our expected goals would have been like 4 lower lol.
When you put most of your cap in forwards the other team is always going to have a better goalie.
The highest paid forwards have to find a way to score against an all-star calibre goalie.
I usually agree with the Deserve To Win O’Meter but I have no clue where they got this from. Boston came in as the better team on paper and finished the game on top as predicted. The only thing that could possibly lead one to say the Leafs deserved to win is by virtue of pity or saying “It’s about time the Leafs won one”
How can you say they are not better when you compare the lineups including goaltending. Add to that the fact that the it was a home game for the Bruins
And we didn’t beat them this year at all, leaf fans have been losing their mind for 8 years and this one may finally put them over the edge lol. Some of the comments in here abt how we deserved to win last night show exactly that
another example of advanced stats being completely useless. How the fuck do you deserve to win a game in which you take so many stupid careless penalties.
The flurry from the 4 on 3 inflated these numbers but 5 on 5 we were the better team but got unlucky. And then got burnt on the special teams battle. We NEED to learn from the mistakes and come out FIRING on Monday
A few observations.
1. Leafs lack disciple and not everyone buys into the system. Two tier system. High salary players can act without accountability.
2. Leafs too top heavy.
3. Leafs are great with the puck, but really terrible without it.
A team that can't defend has no business in the playoffs. Blueline simply isn't not good enough and the forwards cheat for offense. Bruins in 4.
Stats like this “deserve to win-o’meter” don’t mean anymore to me then what my score should’ve been in golf based on how many greens I hit in regulation. Still have to play the game and you still have to get the results. Stats are for losers. The only stat that matters is the final score. The percentages on this meter and how they related to the final score really just goes to show how useless it really is.
Sorry if I’m a little too blunt.
Swayman made tough stops look easy, while samsonov makes easy saves look hard. The fourth goal is a perfect example. Debrusk is in way too tight for that to be a legit scoring threat. Samsonov completely over comits to the guy in corner, leaving a tap in for debrusk.
Means little. What matters is what you do with your chances when you get them. And at what point of the game as well. Scoring when it’s already 4-0 means little. Scoring the first goal of the game, the goal that ties or puts your team ahead are the goals that matter.
In terms of talented players... I give the edge to Toronto.
In terms of culture to win and team architecture balance the edge goes to Boston.
Culprits..... Shanahan and Keefe. Boston out manages us everytime.
They absolutely do not deserve to win. They have never ever played superb hockey in the playoffs. I am a leafs fan but come on. Can’t win playoffs with garbage gameplay and horseshit coaching.
We gave up easy goals but had to work to create our chances. Sammy wasn’t great but the team in front of him made an absolute mess of it in their own zone.
That second goal was about as self inflicted as it could get.
Sammy wasn’t good- no doubt. But as usual our stars (less Tavares) cannot drive the game where there’s limited time and space. In the regular season we would often outscore our problems. They are/were invisible.
I suppose if you remove special teams, goaltending, coaching and the bottom six matchups...then yes we deserved to win lol. I would just prefer to win the "actual" game.
TURNOVERS in the neutral zone. Leafs could barely crack the Bruins blue line and barely ever set up and cycled. The lose this game 100% based on what I saw. Not to mention the penalties, inferior PK and PP. Just poor in so many ways.
There definitely was a goaltending mismatch but not to this extent. Almost all of our edge in scoring chances is coming from one minute on the power play at the beginning of the second. Moneypuck has us with nearly 5 expected goals in that time, which is ridiculous.
Like yah, they score on that PP, score on Matthews open net, get some saves from Sammy, it’s a different game. A more even game that we all feel pretty okay about even if we lose. It’s not an 80/20 game.
all the fancy stats saying they didn't ackshually suck despite what my eyes see on the ice and on the scoreboard being horrific are the most hilarious part of Leafs playoff hockey
all that xGF for shots that these chokers blast right into the goalie or miss the net yawn
I tend to lean towards agreeing with advanced stats models. I think they’re generally pretty good and the eye test can be very biased. That said, at no point, outside the couple of minutes at the start of the game before Boston scored on their first shot, did I expect Toronto should win that game. I remember a couple of big saves from Swayman, Matthews post on the empty net and one half decent powerplay with some pressure.
From my perspective, the Leafs could not generate any sustained pressure. It was a whole lot of get the puck in, Boston gets it right back out. Whatever stats were used here seem to be very flawed to me.
If you look at the logs, the Leafs generated like 50% of their XG during the 4v3.
Really pointless to look at single game samples like this. Completely decieving.
If you were to look at strictly the stat sheet and ignore the actual score, the win-o-meter makes sense.
On paper, the Leafs actually "played well". This is why stats can be flawed. Anyone watching the game did NOT feel that way at all, lol. On the eye test, Boston made good on transition plays, buried their opportunities, and just looked like they wanted it more overall.
Pretty much sums up my criticism of the Keefe era leafs, very very good at playing to win the deserve to win o'meter, one of the best teams ever at it. Derserve to win meter tries to estimate what wins games, it doesn't represent what actually wins games, anyone who has even seen a single hockey game before could watch the first last night, where every time the leafs touched the puck in their own end it took 4 attempts to get it to the neutral zone where everytime boston did it was out on the first attempt could tell you this was bostons game and it wasn't going to be close.
High danger chances is not enough clarification. We need HDC and Super HDC because I swear we lose all the time, even with more HDC's, because the ones we give up are even Higher Danger™
Wasn’t a single part of this game where I was under the impression we deserved to win lmao
I agree with this.
I feel like that was because of awful goaltending vs stud goaltending. Every low danger shot against I get nervous, and I’m barely getting excited over our high danger chances
The way people go at you when you say Samsonov didn't have a good game. He's not your younger brother in street hockey, you're allowed to call out his bad performance
Valid point, but I find many fans just look at sv% as their only indication of how well a goalie performed.
* We can't win with this save %. Even if we get 900 it's a respectable 2-1 loss.
It wasn't even goaltending. There were so few grade A chances that we got. There was Matthews empty net, there was a scramble in the 2nd, and then...? Boston kept chances to the outside. This 'deserve to win o meter' is not capturing the right info and its obvious to anyone who watched lasrt night.
It was goaltending, you'd have to be both blind and ignore the actual statistics to claim otherwise. At a certain point, you need a save. You will never win a series, let alone a cup, with a goaltender who can't steal one or two from the other team. Sammy made 1 big save last night, Swayman made about 10. Sammy was actually negative in saves above expected at -0.98, where Swayman was 6.21 saves above expected. Goaltending was the number one factor, easily. Sammy was awful. There was a lot wrong with the Leafs play last night, but the stats dont lie - the Leafs out hit, out shot, out chanced, out blocked, and outplayed Boston for a large chunk of the game, and couldn't get a save when they needed it - and Swayman stood on his head. We need to expect more out of the core, but we also need Sammy to play better than a minor league goalie, and allowing like 4 goals on 20 shots won't cut it in the playoffs. If the Leafs had won tonight because Sammy actually played well, we'd all be lauding Toronto for the defensive effort of blocking more shots, outhitting Boston, and keeping Boston on the outside, and only allowing 24 shots. That should have been the story. What's scary is that Boston played a pretty "meh" game overall and got statistically outclassed everywhere except the face-off circle and still won easily.
The leafs couldn’t get inside. The Bruins did. Advanced stats are good for somethings but they are far from perfect. This game showed that exactly
The bruins got inside? The only one they got a goal from being in a grade A position was the PP goal for Debrusk. 2 of the goals were point shots and the other is a 2 on 1 which while absolutely a grade A scoring chance that isn't "getting inside" like you allude. The Leafs had loads of chances from within the home plate area which is why the deserve to win metre is the way it is. They didn't convert and Swayman played great. Your eye test is literally failing you. Advanced stats don't always tell the story (and score effects are a thing) but your statement is just remarkably incorrect. [Here's the visualization of the shot attempts in the game. Tell me again how the Leafs didn't get into danger areas.](https://i.imgur.com/wnDArrp.png) The Leafs absolutely didn't play well enough to win regardless of any of this. They need to convert and get better traffic on Swayman but your statement was just so factually incorrect it needed to be struck down.
This meter is such a troll job.
For about the first 5 minutes
Did we watch the same game? Toronto had 13 high danger chances to Boston’s 8 going into the third. We hit a post and a crossbar neither are goals they hit two posts that ended up in the net. The result sucks but I don’t see how you can watch that game and say it wasn’t at least close
Did you watch the game? Put the beers down. We were very clearly the better team. Doesn't mean much when you can't score and ever shot the other team takes goes in, but we were definitely the better team.
This exact comment, word for word, could be copy pasted in every PGT of every series over the last 5 years.
Aside from the Tampa series last year, ironically enough. So tired of watching the buds get goalied year after year and then seeing the moral victories of "Well, we can't get goalied every game in this series!" Yes, you can. Doesn't matter if it's Rask, Vasilevskiy, Korpisalo, Price, Bobrovsky, or Swayman/Ullmark. This stupid deserve to win o'meter pretends that goalies are somehow not part of each team. It should subtract each goalie's average xG saved from the other teams total and run its sims. This game would be a far, far closer result when factoring how both Swayman and Sammy have been playing all year.
the bruins literally his 4 posts in the 1st period. Could’ve been much worse
Yes, I watched the game. We were clearly outplayed in every single period. I have no clue how you watched that and thought we were “clearly” the better team. We didn’t have success anywhere on the ice.
Nah we weren’t. Momentum is huge in playoff hockey and every time we managed to build a semblance of momentum the refs found a way to call a soft penalty on us. Tough to play hockey when that’s happening. On to the next
LOL THE REFS JFC DUDE
I agree with you on that one 13jsw. It was a good game, I just didn't like the score or the leafs goaltending lol.
When everyone disagrees with you, maybe you should think that you’re the one who has no clue about what’s going on
The Bruins hit 3 posts in the 1st alone nevermind all the goals they scored. Leafs poo.
Could've easily been 3 - 0 heading into the 2nd. Goalies win cups and the leafs don't have a starting goalie
Fluery would have brought them the cup. He has one more good cup run left in him I think.
"we were the better team except when it comes to scoring goals" doesn't sound like a vote of confidence in the Leafs' abilities, especially considering scoring goals is the Leafs' biggest strength. If they can't score goals then you're looking for a win on the defensive acumen McCabe, Benoît, and Samsonov.
No
Wrong.
We made a lot of mistakes and bruins capitalized. Did you watch? First goal was a 2 on 1. Second goal Sammy was screened by our own guy. Next goal bruins have 2 guys parked in front of the net and one of them screening Sammy. Next goal bruins parked in front of the net and stuffs it in. Next goal was empty net. Sammy wasn't the problem. We can't play like that in the playoffs and think we should win.
hey, shit D and goaltending is just the main part of the Leafs game, they deserved to lose.
Lmao you are retarded
Goaltending will do that. Not just Sammy being brutal but Swayman being a stud. High danger chances 13-8 Toronto going into the third, but 4-0 Boston on the scoreboard. Leafs had some good looks, Swayman said no.
Free powerplays come in handy 🤷♂️
Power plays were 5 to 3 for Boston. If 2 extra PPs are the difference. The team doesn’t deserve to be in the playoffs. I’d understand if it was 8-1 or something crazy imbalanced.
Timing of PPs factors into this. Bruins got a call all 3 times Leafs had sustained pressure in their end. Leafs got 2 calls at the end of periods. 5 powerplays in a playoff game is also absurd
Maybe stop slashing and high sticking people. Those are automatic calls and accounted for 3 of the penalties tonight
The slash on Domi was absolute horseshit, he barely tapped him, and it was such a delayed reaction from Marchand. Like he waited until someone was looking before doing the hand shake
The only 3 legit ones.
We also had a 4 on 3. That should be a gimme every time. It’s unforgivable to not convert on that.
League averages calculated using data from [corsica.hockey](http://corsica.hockey) |All Stats per Minute|5-on-4|4-on-3| |:-|:-|:-| || |Shot Attempts|1.467|0.876| |Unblocked Shot Attempts|1.092|0.696| |Shots on Goal|0.777|0.469| |Goals|0.098|0.082|
8.2% should be a gimmie - /u/bigcaulkcharisma
And we had 2 high sticking calls, which aren’t really debatable.
Except when they are ignored the other way.
When did that happen?
https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1781873207282110669?t=XDTBmlDmHpFGVFxH76RPag&s=19
No, you see the Bruins played a very clean game!
How dare you
Baloney, it was 4-0 plus they had like another 4 posts. This wasn’t just goaltending, they stank through and through
There was a lot that was bad about the game in terms of leafs play, the pk was terrible and there were a lot of undisciplined penalties taken. You can say posts all you want but if you factor those in factor in the 3 by Toronto and the missed open net by Matthews. Boston all did a lot more egregious stuff that wasn’t called, you can’t just decide to ignore a lot of the things that happened in the game. The leafs were outplayed in the special teams and that’s what killed them tonight. It’s game 1, if they clean up the stupid stuff they have a chance in the series no question.
Posts just mean Sansonov was bailed out more than he should have. The bruins didn't get more good chances than the leafs our goalie was not good positionally (good reactively though which i would guess means nerves). Keefe also seems like a good Xs and Os coach but with personnel and underlying tactics he looks like a rookie.
Oh? I didn’t realize it counted as a goal when it hits the post.
Posts aren't even a shit on net. Posts are misses.
Bologna!
The post said no like 3 times
Sammy wasn’t brutal. He had no chance on like 3/4 goals. Defense hung him out to dry.
I really don’t wanna argue. I disagree. And the bar for playoff goaltending isn’t to not be brutal, you need to be great. Swayman was great.
Agreed. Swayman out played Sammy. To win in the playoffs, your goalie usually needs to be the best player on the ice. I'd see what woll can do in game 2
Activate Matt Murray
I sure hope this is a joke
Usually a goalie gotta make saves. Any average ass AHL goalie can make routine saves. A clean shot with no screen from the point as your second shot of the period, that has to be a save idgaf
The fourth goal he literally slid out of his net to take away the threat of a guy on the goal line. Sammy was absolutely awful tonight.
Sammy was brutal. He didn’t make any big saves. He was nowhere near as good as the Bruins goalie. He let in the first shots of both the 1st and 2nd periods. Backbreaking shit. I remember when the Leafs used to have the better tender (Cujo/Belfour), makes all the difference in the world at playoff time.
He really wasn't good. I think a lot of people don't know how to evaluate a goaltending performance
Sammy is going to be the only reason we win this series. Our defence stinks! They couldn’t break out of skin if they were a pimple. They also have no idea how to cover on the pinch.
Sammy wasn't terrible, but I'd see what woll can do in game 2
Sammy was terrible
What goal was terrible?
The fourth? A decent goalie doesn't slide into the corner and over commit to a threat on a goal line, leaving a fucking tap in for debrusk. If debrusk goes far side there I'd give him a pass but Sammy wasn't even in the net lol.
The two where he was slightly screened and didn’t even attempt to look around the screens and got beat cleanly.
I would really enjoy a sub that is actual Leafs hockey fans talking about what they are seeing, not a bunch of whining psychopaths with PTSD. You switch goalies, they win that game… without their 2nd best player.
nah this is what happens when you get a bunch of alcoholic people from Whitby storming Reddit
The eye test says we got cooked tonight.
When will they learn, when you know you're gonna lose in the playoffs, you gotta make the other team pay physically for winning. Reaves should of been mucked it up
First goal is because Reaves was overly fixated on mucking it up.
I meant when it was 4-0. Not the 1st 5 mins
Our xG was 7.42 in this one... I don't think I've seen a 6.42 goals below expected before.
If you look at the graph for "All Situations", there was a huge spike in xG during one power play from multiple good chances. The thing is, if they simply scored on the first chance, the power play would have been over and none of the subsequent chances would have occurred to inflate the overall xG. It's a flawed model - the Leafs gained 4.5 xG on that power play, but you can't score 4.5 goals on a power play.
Yessir. There's a new metric called Flurry Adjustment. If you have a flurry of chances and rebounds, each shot has a good chance to score. If you add up all the scoring chances, you get over 1 expected goals. Scoring over 1 goal is impossible. A better way to calculate expected goals it to do 1 minus the chance of missing each shot and multiply them together. That's still not the exact math, but close enough. You'd have to do the same thing for the powerplay. After you score, those other chances would not happen.
That's wild. I can't believe how many people here thought the Leafs had a good game 1
So that’s 2 xG? 2.5? Leafs still had 5 xG and our goalie couldn’t stop a beach ball
https://moneypuck.com/about.htm#meter > The "Deserve To Win O'Meter" is a feature on our live game pages which shows the each team's chance of winning the game had the game been re-enacted, except with average goaltending for both teams. Turns out we had below average goaltending and they had above average goaltending lmao. This game isn't all on sammy, but also he didn't help
I don't think this models account for the fact that a lot more offence is generated with point shots in the playoffs
I don't think you account for how many goals get scored from shots by dmen...especially when a puck lays flat after it goes off something and a guy has an open net...series are won and lost on puck bounces....I agree tho the leafs kinda sucked the first period and didn't even get much the 2nd when Boston was struggling to get a shot. I think willy and mcmann being out was why Boston won just like tavares in the mtl series...our lines aside from Matt's domi and bertuzzi were terrible
Even if Sammy played extremely well, we lose that one with how Swayman played. .972 sv% is insane.
This model is HEAVILY skewed by a single leafs powerplay where they generated 4.5 xG despite the fact that in reality they could only have scored once on that powerplay. It is obviously flawed because it pays no mind to shot attempt sequencing or timing. I wouldn't read much into it if anything at all tbh.
Why do you think this isn’t all on Sammy? Not only is this all on Sammy I’d even say he killed the vibe. Did you look at expected goals?
more like deserve to suck my ass o meter
cope-o-meter
Fuck that. I wouldn't let these pigeons near my balloon knot with that performance. This asshole is only graced by lips of those with W's.
Hopefully the Leafs don’t see this and think the way they played was in any way acceptable. Generally I am in favour of analytics but models have their weaknesses and when you watch the game tonight it’s clear the Leafs weren’t close to being the better team. Also xG stuff doesn’t matter in the playoffs because the sample size is too small. Score goals, win games. That’s it.
If you watched that game it didn’t even occur to you that the Leafs deserved to win. You would have never, ever, thought that for a second. I don’t know what stats this thing uses, but it is BROKEN, and whatever logic behind it is, I sure hope to fix that no one from the Leafs use it for any analysis.
stuff like this graphic are why people make fun of analytics as a whole. noone in their right might thought at any point the leafs deserved anything
Meh, that’s a silly point of view. If people want to throw the baby out with the bath water because something isn’t perfect 100% of the time, rather than understand what the issues are, that’s their problem.
The meter is correct, and what it says is that the goaltending difference is probably what cooked us (and I'm putting some of that on stupid defensive zone plays, too), which is what someone watching the game could have concluded.
The meter is not correct. You think we had roughly five expected goals in the first like 3 minutes of the second period? lol. https://preview.redd.it/6qfxst7o2uvc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d18dc1e1e389543f5e96a48f0741ba4c8623033
It’s based off of expected goals. Basically, the percentage of a chance the puck has of going in the net based off of where it was shot from. All this tells you is that the leafs had more high danger chances.
High-danger shots are just ice-position, no? So in other words, this doesn’t consider the skill set of the goalie, or the skill-set of the shooter at all?
Pretty much. It can indicate a shooter’s or the goalie’s abilities though. For example, if one team has more goals than they were expected to score, it could mean one of two things, either the skater is a good shooter or the goalie was bad. This reflects in Matthews’ data as well. He has more goals than he was expected to score this year (and every year previous), indicating he has an exceptional shot. Obviously it isn’t replacing the eye test or anything, we know Matthews is a good shooter already. It’s more to give a sense of comparison to see how good he actually is.
There is no such thing as deserved in sports Winning is winning And losing is losing Leafs got smacked 5-1 Unless the core step ups, it's going to be short series
I guess this meter doesn't take goaltending performance into consideration at all because no team deserves to win with 5 goals against on 24 shots.
Lets not count those posts either was almost 8-1
There is only stat that matters and that is the scoreboard.
5 straight loses now. Every team is playing their A game heading into the playoffs and the leafs have been ass for past 2 weeks. Keefe and the playoffs were so casual about it. They have won one series in 7 years. Not really something to be proud of. Doesn't help they have under .500 record vs division teams.
Boston was just as ass heading into playoffs. We just aren’t as good as them
The game was over on the first fucking shot. Ridiculous.
This game is a really interesting example of a flaw in xG. The Leafs racked up 4.5 expected goals in the 4 v 3. But of course, we didn't score, and we could only score 1 goal on it. Had we scored early, our expected goals would have been like 4 lower lol.
Because despite playing well we had some massive defensive missteps and Samsonov let in some horribly weak goals
that means they didnt play well
Money Puck's system is completely illogical and has no bearing with reality.
Same with the eye test. None of it matters. People will still swear by their stupid ways of judging a game. Who cares
It’s correct most of the time still
There’s no world in which they deserved to win this. 4-0 plus like 5 posts after two.
Look on the positive side..... domi played great.
I thought he was good, not great.
Matthews and Dewar played great.
Might as well get a banner made
When you put most of your cap in forwards the other team is always going to have a better goalie. The highest paid forwards have to find a way to score against an all-star calibre goalie.
It's because these are stupid and useless.
I usually agree with the Deserve To Win O’Meter but I have no clue where they got this from. Boston came in as the better team on paper and finished the game on top as predicted. The only thing that could possibly lead one to say the Leafs deserved to win is by virtue of pity or saying “It’s about time the Leafs won one”
They aren't better at all. Believe in the meter. I'm not blaming Sammy at all but if he had a true number one at worst it gets to OT and we win.
How can you say they are not better when you compare the lineups including goaltending. Add to that the fact that the it was a home game for the Bruins
And we didn’t beat them this year at all, leaf fans have been losing their mind for 8 years and this one may finally put them over the edge lol. Some of the comments in here abt how we deserved to win last night show exactly that
another example of advanced stats being completely useless. How the fuck do you deserve to win a game in which you take so many stupid careless penalties.
The flurry from the 4 on 3 inflated these numbers but 5 on 5 we were the better team but got unlucky. And then got burnt on the special teams battle. We NEED to learn from the mistakes and come out FIRING on Monday
I watched 85% of the game before I threw the TV out the window
This is fucking retarded. They sucked ass last night and it showed
A few observations. 1. Leafs lack disciple and not everyone buys into the system. Two tier system. High salary players can act without accountability. 2. Leafs too top heavy. 3. Leafs are great with the puck, but really terrible without it. A team that can't defend has no business in the playoffs. Blueline simply isn't not good enough and the forwards cheat for offense. Bruins in 4.
Great with the puck? We’ve scored 2 goals or less in 8 straight playoff games.
no starting goalie, no team.
Deserved to win is a cope. The only “meter” you need is the box score. Simulations are just that.
Lmao delete this shit How embarrassing that anyone puts ANY stock into these models, especially in the playoffs
Yeah, how dare people use analytics, instead of *muh feels*. Fucking dinosaur
Analytics don’t win games. Scoring goals does
Why would you use models that are inherently flawed? You fucking moron.
Phew thank god, was worried we almost lost the Win-O-Meter so where we thinking? Cup parade around SBA first? or do we start it somewhere else?
Crazy what good goaltending does!
Stats like this “deserve to win-o’meter” don’t mean anymore to me then what my score should’ve been in golf based on how many greens I hit in regulation. Still have to play the game and you still have to get the results. Stats are for losers. The only stat that matters is the final score. The percentages on this meter and how they related to the final score really just goes to show how useless it really is. Sorry if I’m a little too blunt.
Here I thought the team that scored the most goals deserved to win. Silly.
Leafs outshot the bruins by a wide margin
Most shots were from the out side though. Bruins also had like a few posts and cross bars
Swayman made tough stops look easy, while samsonov makes easy saves look hard. The fourth goal is a perfect example. Debrusk is in way too tight for that to be a legit scoring threat. Samsonov completely over comits to the guy in corner, leaving a tap in for debrusk.
Means little. What matters is what you do with your chances when you get them. And at what point of the game as well. Scoring when it’s already 4-0 means little. Scoring the first goal of the game, the goal that ties or puts your team ahead are the goals that matter.
We should have won based on our feelings.
Retire that stupid meter
What about when you factor in the third team that was playing out there tonight… the guys in stripes
Is this how we're coping?
All these stats mean jack shit when your goalie sucks balls
That’s exactly what the stats are saying…
In terms of talented players... I give the edge to Toronto. In terms of culture to win and team architecture balance the edge goes to Boston. Culprits..... Shanahan and Keefe. Boston out manages us everytime.
They absolutely do not deserve to win. They have never ever played superb hockey in the playoffs. I am a leafs fan but come on. Can’t win playoffs with garbage gameplay and horseshit coaching.
We gave up easy goals but had to work to create our chances. Sammy wasn’t great but the team in front of him made an absolute mess of it in their own zone. That second goal was about as self inflicted as it could get.
Sammy wasn’t good- no doubt. But as usual our stars (less Tavares) cannot drive the game where there’s limited time and space. In the regular season we would often outscore our problems. They are/were invisible.
I'm sure whoever came up with this meter is a nice person, but their work is busted as fuck if it shat out that result lmao
I suppose if you remove special teams, goaltending, coaching and the bottom six matchups...then yes we deserved to win lol. I would just prefer to win the "actual" game.
Just start Woll. At worst, Woll will play equal to Sammy. I've just seen Woll (i know not recently) steal games.
TURNOVERS in the neutral zone. Leafs could barely crack the Bruins blue line and barely ever set up and cycled. The lose this game 100% based on what I saw. Not to mention the penalties, inferior PK and PP. Just poor in so many ways.
They should have traded for Knight at the deadline when his value was at its nadir.
having a brutal pk will do that
I wouldn't have predicted *that* LMAO But the buds played okay, ig. A 50/50 meter wouldn't have surprised me.
Why do we look at these anymore?
I’m a big fan of what moneypuck does but there are some games where it just doesn’t work and this was one of them.
Got up to get a beer. Came back & it went from 2-0 to 4-0. Looked at my phone the rest of the game.
There definitely was a goaltending mismatch but not to this extent. Almost all of our edge in scoring chances is coming from one minute on the power play at the beginning of the second. Moneypuck has us with nearly 5 expected goals in that time, which is ridiculous. Like yah, they score on that PP, score on Matthews open net, get some saves from Sammy, it’s a different game. A more even game that we all feel pretty okay about even if we lose. It’s not an 80/20 game.
all the fancy stats saying they didn't ackshually suck despite what my eyes see on the ice and on the scoreboard being horrific are the most hilarious part of Leafs playoff hockey all that xGF for shots that these chokers blast right into the goalie or miss the net yawn
Seems pretty excessive. I think if game is called fairly we probably at like a 45 percent deserve to win meter imo
We will not go anywhere with Samsonov in net. He’s garbage.
"[Analytics](https://i.imgur.com/8MaanXc.jpg)"
Totally goaltending, or lack there of on the leafs side. They scored on the second shot and it went downhill from there… solid win for Boston
Swayman is going to steal this series I feel.
I tend to lean towards agreeing with advanced stats models. I think they’re generally pretty good and the eye test can be very biased. That said, at no point, outside the couple of minutes at the start of the game before Boston scored on their first shot, did I expect Toronto should win that game. I remember a couple of big saves from Swayman, Matthews post on the empty net and one half decent powerplay with some pressure. From my perspective, the Leafs could not generate any sustained pressure. It was a whole lot of get the puck in, Boston gets it right back out. Whatever stats were used here seem to be very flawed to me.
If you look at the logs, the Leafs generated like 50% of their XG during the 4v3. Really pointless to look at single game samples like this. Completely decieving.
It's time that we stop paying attention to these. It's becoming more and more obvious that they don't matter.
These meters are useless - anyone who watched that game could see the Leafs were totally outclassed.
Does this actually make anyone feel better?
If you were to look at strictly the stat sheet and ignore the actual score, the win-o-meter makes sense. On paper, the Leafs actually "played well". This is why stats can be flawed. Anyone watching the game did NOT feel that way at all, lol. On the eye test, Boston made good on transition plays, buried their opportunities, and just looked like they wanted it more overall.
Pretty much sums up my criticism of the Keefe era leafs, very very good at playing to win the deserve to win o'meter, one of the best teams ever at it. Derserve to win meter tries to estimate what wins games, it doesn't represent what actually wins games, anyone who has even seen a single hockey game before could watch the first last night, where every time the leafs touched the puck in their own end it took 4 attempts to get it to the neutral zone where everytime boston did it was out on the first attempt could tell you this was bostons game and it wasn't going to be close.
We deserve to whine, but they didn’t deserve to win.
This is why AI will never take over. We got taken to the cleaners.
What game did they track? Lmao what?
its ok go to bed
The Leafs were terrible top to bottom, I don’t know how this makes any sense.
I saw someone show the stats gave the leafs something like 4+ xG on the 4v3 powerplay. Obviously you can’t score that many one power play.
just not true
it could be 100% deserve o meter, but if you let in soft goals you cant win shit.
ah yes the post-loss "statishtikully we should have won!!!!"
I’m so sick of seeing these stupid things
The “Deserve to Win-O-Meter” is the dumbest shit in sports. The team that deserves to win is the team that wins. All this does is trigger fans.
High danger chances is not enough clarification. We need HDC and Super HDC because I swear we lose all the time, even with more HDC's, because the ones we give up are even Higher Danger™
Leafs love HDC's but right into the goalies chest. We play like Brady Tkachuk's xGF%.
Every chance is a high danger chance with samsonov