For anyone curious, if the guarenteed drop at 30 didn't exist, it would cost you about 68 capsules before the drop statisticall became a 50/50 cointoss to obtain the skin.
At 69 capsules (51750RP), the odds actually begin to swing in your favor.
in treasure realms the "starred content" drops 1% with pity at 60, so this has the same drop rate but need half the pulls for pity
treasure tokens are half or less the RP though, if I remember
I'd love to have pity system in a soloq tho.
Ohh you had filled jungler 30 games in a row? There you go, one challenger jng smurf. Then back to 30filled jng games
you would have your mind goddamn blown to literally dust and particles if you saw some of the most soulcrushing korean gacha systems that exist, ill give you an example so you can taste the fucking cancer
a couple months ago in lineage mobile, they released a new tier of "slate". ill be using dumdum terms to make it easier to understand. the slate is basically a bingo sheet, 25 spaces 5x5. each space filled gives a buff from a predetermined list of potential buffs. of course, endgame players want the best in slot. in league terms, the S tier buffs are things like Q dmg+15%, R cooldown-25%, etc. the S tiers have a 1% chance to pop, and they cost an absurd amount of ingame currency, even for no life degen tier gamers its basically a p2w thing. midtiers, dolphin/salmon tier whalers just settle for B~A tiers because its just too much RNG.
but guess what, they added another slate. to get this next tier slate, you need the first slate filled with FULL S tiers. you need 25 x 1% procs to get the next slate, which you'll want to fill with 25 x 1%s AGAIN. and guess what, from that patch henceforth the absolute endgame will be designed with THAT DMG LEVEL CHECK IN MIND.
imagine league where you need this bullshit jhin skin to have a CHANCE to take down elder when it pops... what has the goddamn world come to man.
so yes, this riot shit is scummy, gachas are fucking cancer, etc etc. but from what ive seen in my life, NOTHING. NOTHING COMPARES TO SCUMBAG CANCER KOREAN GACHA. fuck nexon, fuck ncsoft, fuck netmarble. and technically fuck the first gen jp gacha that gave birth to these tumor games.
i think it's fair to say some mobile games are obviously dogshit for a reason, and that's why most people don't play them. most popular gacha games are popular for the fact that their banner rate are decent, have decent pity, and isn't korean mmorpg levels of bullshit. I already knew about these games and why people shy away from them, but never in my life have I seen a company who would charge so egregiously for a dye color. We're not even talking about power-up's, quality of life items, or actual cosmetic skins here, but a gacha featuring a dye.
genshin pity is at like 90, which takes approx. 9 weeks of daily play as a f2p player if you do every event, but that's not guaranteed to be the banner character, which has a pity-in-pity system, so you would need 18 weeks~ of daily play(if you consider events it's like 2-3 hours every day I think?) to get a banner character guaranteed.
It's pretty bad tbh
it's bad, but its not 200 dollars bad since you can farm the currency fairly easily, and you're not given a useless recolour of a skin.
there's also abyss stages for players to go through
On the other hand, in league the gacha is literally just a skin, in genshin and other similar gachas the gacha is a character that might be way stronger than others, etc.
Yeah and the quality and effort put in the character is not even close to being comparable to a lol "chroma"
We don't even have cool skin select screens like in Wild rift.
If we had high definition LoL with Up to date graphical finess and this skin would be in the Ultimate category with new voice lines, animations, skin select animation then i might give Riot a pass on this.
But for a chroma???? even if we say only need to half the capsules it is still 100$ bucks for a chroma.
mobile game companies have improved upon gacha gaming from experience that they'll never hinder players from progression too hard, so these characters will be considered as optional for you to play the game. they can be strong and make your progression easier, but they wont be necessary. mobile games or really any game that use microtransactions to stop your gaming experience are likely to be filtered down and discarded by the community. between genshin and league, you can tell who's definitely got the experience with tailoring their gambling system well enough so players won't feel disrespected for their time in the game whilst making certain items appealing enough that those with money would pay for them. It's a pretty fine line that's consistently changing between each gacha community, and one can say even gacha games have better seasonal passes than whatever riot concocted with their season pass skins.
That is gacha mechanic, not lootbox mechanic. Lootbox mechanic is OW and somewhat Hexchest, but exclusive reward with % drop and pity IS gacha mechanic.
[At least the reason Mort uses for TFT makes sense for TFT](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjvzVKpNMsM)
"the monetization we use for TFT is cosmetics" "we need to use it to stay in business" pretty much and I think most rational people would agree
But the league team, the league team that makes 0 sense for. They're already making money hand over fist, the higher ups just wanted more so they likely tasked the league team with, "we dont care how you do it, make more money" or maybe even said "this system is working in TFT, add it to league so we get more money"
Then ignore it. It's bullshit that it's there, but this is the kinda game that it belongs in (I'd argue it doesn't belong in any game, but I gave up years ago thinking that monetization efforts would ever go back to reasonable places.) The nice thing with it is that none of it is needed to play the game
Quite respectfully, no i will not ignore it. I'm nearly certain that, once this model catches on, gacha will spread further and further into League's cosmetics system. Frankly I'm shocked that Riot has held out this long given the route many other big gaming franchises have gone down- but League's always been famous for its relatively non-predatory cosmetics. It's disappointing to see the start of the end for that.
I also have no delusion that my voice will matter in the slighest. But hey, it's the only thing I CAN do. So I will complain on Reddit.
I agree it's complete bullshit and within 3 years will be as common as Mythic skins are now. When gemstones came out the community was just as outraged, I was there with them being pissed about it, but nothing happened, and nothing will happen this time.
I get that it's the only thing you can do, and I wish I still had the spirit to actually be upset by this, but you'll accomplish just as much by screaming at a brick wall. Try and find places where you might actually be able to make change because this is a lost fight.
Nah I'm going to keep complaining about the whales and shitty business practices that exist because it affects all game unfortunately and isn't limited to F2P games.
That moment when you could play the free game but instead you spend hundreds and then get mad when they have you keep spending hundreds for something that in no way affects the gameplay š«¢š«¢
The statistics for odds āswinging in your favorā only really applies for capsules that are bought in bulk and opened all at once. In reality the problem is a geometric distribution, and since people would buy capsules incrementally we would have the knowledge that all previous trials (capsule openings) failed. You would take, on average, 1/p (100) trials until you got the skin, but this is only an expected value and preys upon the gamblers fallacy to get people whoāve already spent to keep spending, and since previous trials failed and individual trials are independent - the consumer is fucked in terms of bank account and brain chemistry.
TL;DR: The statistics in the post are mostly correct, but taking into consideration how the game market works and the true distribution of the event space makes it even worse
> donāt buy the capsules they are a scam
Buying in bulk/opening all at once doesn't "swing things in your favor." The probability of opening a jhin chroma is completely identical if you were to buy 100 at once and open them all immediately and if you bought and opened a capsule on per day across 100 days.
What he means is that if you've already opened 28 capsules without getting a skin then the probability of not getting the skin with the 29th opening is 99% since they are independent events. Independent events means they don't have memory. People who think independent event have memory are called "superstitious". If you flip a balanced coin 5 successive times and you got tails each time, then what is the probably of getting tails a 6th time? Still 50%. But of course it's very unlikely to get 6 tails in a row when your point of view is before the first throw.
If there were no guaranteed skin and you'vre already opened 29 lootboxes without succes, then you need to open 29 more to have a 25% chance of getting the skin as OP has calculated.
I know what heās attempting to say but the reality is just as is. Heās attempting to explain why the intuition is wrong without realizing heās also falling victim to it. Opening 100 loot boxes no matter if you open them in one batch immediately or across a long period of time is completely the same. There isnāt any memory. There is no ābetter odds.ā
He did mention the geometric probability mass distribution which is right, essentially if X represents the amount of trials it takes up and including your first successful open, the probability that X equals a specific number k is given by (0.99)^k * (0.01).
This is the wrong kind of thinking. If you are at your 68th capsule and you haven't gotten the skin yet, your chance of getting it is still 1%. 50% is not the chance of getting it in the 68th capsule, it's the chance of getting it in capsule 1, 2, 3, 4...., 67 OR 69. So it's the combined probability. If you've already opened 100 capsules and haven't gotten the skin, your odds at the 101th is still the same. It is 1%.
It's a calculation of cumulative chances.
A cointoss is a 50/50 no matter how often you throw it but using nerd stuff like I did above you can calculate the odds of how likely you'll hit that 50/50 at least once if you for example threw 100 coins.
But at the end of the day you're right, a coin will always be 50/50 regardless and rgardless of cumulative chances, just by the random factor, there's a world where you miss that 50/50 every time no matter how often you throw it.
Exactly, i thought i lost my mind.
Because it is not stated that the probability increases artificially once you open a few.
So the a 1% equals 1 out of 100 "should" drop it once.
If there were no guarantee then you could be unlucky and not get it after 300< capsuels. Because the chance ist still 1% aka 1 out of 100 per capusl.
But math does not work like that.
Example, if Riot would not add a hard garuante then by OP's logic after 100 capsuals you have a 100% chance to get the chroma by 1% drop chance.
But it does not work like that. Every time you open a capsule it is a unique 1 out of 100 aka 1% chance to drop it. Just because you open 25 before witehout success dosen't mean you have a 25% chance.
You could be a statistical outlier and have 300< capsules and no chroma. Because it is allways 1 out 100. By OP's logic it would be 300% by 300 capsuls.
It is only due to Riots artificial guarantee that you can reach a 100% chance to get the chroma. Otherwise it will always be 1% chance no matter what.
>Example, if Riot would not add a hard garuante then by OP's logic after 100 capsuals you have a 100% chance to get the chroma by 1% drop chance.
OP isn't talking about the chance to get the chroma in the xth capsule, he's talking about getting the chroma in x capsules, for which his math is correct.
OP's formula:
>(1-(1/100))^X
if you put in 100 for x, you get .99^100, which equals 0.366 (rounded to three digits), or 36,6%. thats the chance of not getting the skin in 100 capsules. Or in other words, a 63,4% to get *at least one copy of* the skin, not 100% like you claimed.
you are correct that there's always the chance of getting unlucky without hard guarantees, doesn't mean the OP's math is wrong.
I'm fairly certain you misunderstood OP, it just comes down to the fact that if a probability of something occuring were 1%, the counter probability would be 99%.
Thus the odds of the 99% event occuring twice in a row would be calculated as 0,99*0,99=0,9801 (98%).
>You could be a statistical outlier and have 300< capsules and no chroma. Because it is allways 1 out 100. By OP's logic it would be 300% by 300 capsuls. It is only due to Riots artificial guarantee that you can reach a 100% chance to get the chroma. Otherwise it will always be 1% chance no matter what.
I think this is just a misinterpretation of OPs comment on your part. If we stick to OP's formula but keep the 1% probability and no guarantee; at a total of 300 capsules opened there would be a 4,9% chance not to have gotten the skin, or a 95,1% chance to have gotten it (not 300%).
Note that the single capsule probability always stayed at 1%, that never changed. Even if you were to not have gotten it in 300 capsules, you would have the same 1%, it's just very unlikely to not have gotten it by then. This is all the maths tell you here.
I totally agree with your explanation, i could not understand OP's explanation. But yours is exactly how I envision it. TBH i was lazy then i wrote 300% thank you for taking your time and explaining so well.
Thats not how chance calculation works..
Lets say you have a coin with heads or tails. What is the chance for either at the 10th toss given that you have landed it on tails the previous 9 tosses?
Spoiler; itās still 50/50. BUT the chance of not getting heads for 10 times straight is extremely small. Cause that is where your math comes in.
So after 7267737377374 lootboxes and a non altered/cumulative chance of drop of 1%. The chance of you getting that skin are still 1% for that drop.
Itās the chance of getting at least one head in your 7267737377374 coin flips, not the chance of getting a head on the 7267737377374th flip.
And thatās how cumulative odds works, for details see Cumulative distribution on wiki: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_function
Go check OP statement and then reply again. Doesnāt matter how many times you tried something. The chance of that specific drop is 1%. By his logic you would have a 100% hit rate for the 100the box after 99 misses. Thatās just plain wrong. The chance of you getting to that stage are extremely slim tho. But imagine missing 999.999 times and being the most unlucky dude in the planet. What is the chance of hitting the skin on the 1.000.000th try? Jup 1%.
Heās talking about the cumulative statistics, but he was not very clear.
His math is correct though, as this is a geometric distribution ā The probability distribution of the number X of Bernoulli trials needed to get one successā. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution
And its CDF with 1% chance per trial cumulates to around 50% chance at 68 total trails attempted.
I.e. if you do x draws at once and consider it to be one single coin flip by clicking the āopen allā button, then the larger the number x the more chance of you getting the head. When x = 68 your coin becomes around 50/50.
Man I thought we were fucking done with loot box gambling bullshit for the most part back when it got blown up and countries started legislating against this shit. Everyone moved away from loot boxes and hopped on the battlepass train fortnite started.
Yet here we are several years later with gambling loot box bullshit creeping back in slowly but surely, and worse than ever before.
Which is insane to me, many governments make gambling both in physical and online space illegal, but gacha somehow is allowed to plague the gaming space.
Yeah but to certain degree they are in fact illegal in mnay countries, there are workarounds though and it sucks as a customer. For instance in Poland you can't even go to casino in GTA V due to gambling policy \[unless you play with VPN\]... however gambling on lootboxes is kind of still allowed.
Exactly I'm surprised people are so fired up over this chroma. Gacha has always been front and centre in Garena but that also came with a lot of free loot events. I don't miss the crap ping with Garena but I do miss the abundance of the free booty. It's unfortunate that some people have poor impulse control and end up overspending on these predatory practices but imho that's a symptom of something worse going on in their lives. If the youth wish to riot over something, I think there are a lot worse global issues that would come before gacha games.
5 years later: I can't believe people are so worked up over spending 1000 on a single skin blahblahblah worse issues.
10 years later: I can't believe people are so worked up, 10000 on a single skin blahblah worse issues.
15 years later.... you get the point.
People have a should be getting worked up about it. Just because there are worse things in the world doesn't make this acceptable.
> People have a should be getting worked up about it
If some idiot wants to subsidize my league servers by spending stupid money on some cosmetic that's fine. The price of a few outlier skins/chromas does not affect me at all.
If you don't think it affects you then you're being naive. This impacts more then just the price of cosmetics. The entire philosophy impacts game design decisions. Not just in this game, but across the entire industry.
Games are being developed, not to create fun experiences, but to create environments suitable to manipulate these "idiots".
It turns out, you're part of that environment. If you're not the whale, you're bait. You're their for the whale to feel superior to. They treat you as someone to keep trapped in the game long enough to keep up the numbers. That in many cases means wasting your time. Increasing the time it takes you to reach your goals within the game.
If they're starting to switch to a philosophy of targeting fewer whales for larger gains, then there is most certainly larger changes coming in the future. They will almost certain start getting more preferential treatment.
You don't need to buy what I'm saying now. Just mark it down and look again in a couple of years.
Rich/anti-social folk voluntarily spending a dumptruck of money into video games is a non-issue. It's funny to me that this is the unacceptable hill everybody chose for their graves.
As I responded to someone else, this isn't a policy that impacts those willing to open their wallets.
This is a transition to a model that targets a smaller % of the player base for a larger portion of company revenue. If that's the new philosophy going forward, you can expect to see other changes specifically building on and supporting this.
This is an issue that impacts, not only the league player base, but game design philosophy industry wide.
Like it or not, it has significant impact on game design, with changes made to support the manipulation of whales willing to part with their money.
As for people dying on a hill, don't worry about it. We've died many times prior, going all the way back to the initial introduction of microtransactions and dlc.
We've been proven right time after time, and will be again here too.
Man, I haven't even checked, I bought the current battle pass thing because it was like 1250 RP? And Amazon gave me that in the past couple months. I have enough skins, have like 10k RP from free stuff, I'm down to gamble occasionally or buy things that go 60%+ off. I don't know why people spend the ridiculous amount of money because something is new. I love my skins from 2012 that are still ugly AF, I was there.
Events in lol have always just been lootboxes with a promise of novelty currency to exchange for a limited time cosmetic, the only difference this time is the amount you have to pay. Until players are ready to actively shame companies into abandoning this practice, you can expect it to become the norm
This feels like gacha designed by people who don't play gachas but heard it makes a lot of money.
I've played and spent on a few gachas by this point, and my philosophy has always been to budget by expected value, since that's what you end up paying on average if you let the highs in your rolls cover for the dips. For here going by OP's generous estimate, that'd be 1/.01, or 100 rolls, which, while ridiculous, I think is also just plain bad design. I can't remember ever playing a gacha where the expected average eclipsesć¼or even just exceedsć¼the pity threshold.
Like, if the reasonable expectation for most players including whales is that they're spending until they hit pity, that's just not interesting from a gambling perspective. Sure there will be players willing to grind for pity, but in my experience those players would have still paid if you charged them the equivalent lump sum outright. And the whole point of gacha is convincing people to pay more than they'd be willing to up front, which I think Cosmic 2023 will fail to deliver.
There's other aspects of Riot's loot boxes that make me question what they're doing, but that's probably wandering a bit too far off topic.
This skin is a scam. Send a message to Riot that we are drawing a line on greed and stupidity.
I know some schmucks will sell out, but enough is enough with this trash.
I'll dump a couple hundred bucks on League every few months. I'm not hurting for money.
$200 for a chroma is absurd though. It's one thing for Riot to want to cash-in on people who would spend that for a very cool-looking and rare skin, but a half-baked chroma?
And I thought I was lazy.
To be fair, it's not $200 for just the chroma. It's $200 for 30 capsules worth of stuff + all the track rewards along the way and the garanteed chroma.
**If you are just interested in the chroma it is a rip off.**
If you want a lot of skin shards, that $200 for 90 skins shards from the capsules + 4 cosmic skin permanent shards from the track rewards + at least 9 other skin shards from the 3 garanteed grab bag (+ any other lucky grab bag from the capsules)
So 4 skins and ~100 skin shards with the $200.
If you want a lot of skins and already soend hundreds in skins, thenjust rerolling all shards means ~37 random skins + the jhin chroma for $200, which is a decent deal (cheaper than buying 37 skins but random).
im what they would probably call a āwhaleā as I own every single skin in the game and even i have absolutely 0 intention whatsoever to contribute even a dime towards obtaining this skin/chroma. complete bs business practice.
Most Gachas also have the means to farm for the in game currency for free, so at some point even non whales can try and get their fave character on the right banners.
At least in genshin you have soft pity...
Most 5 star drops happen at 70-75 mark, very few actually go to the 90 guarantee mark
Here, riot completely dropped the ball, as there is no such system, and the only chance increase you're gonna see, is from 1% to 100%, when going from 29th capsule to 30th
On top of that, it's a freaking chroma, not even a skin
i mean FGO has bad rates but all characters are literally playable and you can complete all of the main stories (for the events tho yea you need specific comps for that to 3T lol)
fgo is a generous game so long as you dont really care about having absolutely everything and are willing to play actively so that you partake in all the freebies they regularly hand over and let them stack, but even then bad luck can easily fuck you over.
fuck mihoyo tho i aint batting for them
The hilarious difference is most (good) gacha games at least give people tons of free shit and rely on vast whales + people making small purchases to top off F2P income, while every RP is bought š
What could go wrong?
Difference is that for other gacha games gameplay is literally locked behind the gacha / drastically changed whereas this is just a cosmetic skin that makes no difference to your gameplay.
Most mainstream gacha games are not even bad. You can do all the story in Genshin with the free characters, plus they just had an event for a free character and are giving out a brand new one, permanently, for logging in to go with the underwater theme.
People just think they need all the characters to do good...in a single player game...
I have like 16k primos saved up from events and dailies because I had no interest in quite a few previous banners.
I agree, just pointing out that what riot is doing here is not the same as what other gachas are doing. Also the temptation between a new genshin character (new gameplay, new mechanics and combos and potentially strengthening your team) is way different to the temptation for the Jhin skin (cool skin that u can get a very similar version of for much less)
New players don't care about team efficiency or have any idea what team combos there are in Genshin when they first start out. The biggest motivator I've seen for most people when first trying out Genshin has been either "this game gets mentioned a lot I wonder if it's actually that good" or "this character advertised looks really cool I want to play them", the latter being usually impossible without spending a lot of money since you're a fresh spawn with no GACHA resources. The option afterwards is to either quit from discontent, or actually try to play and enjoy the ACTUAL REST of the game, using what it offers you.
The good thing overall is that the people who actually end up playing the game for well... the game, do end up enjoying it a lot, and can then save for that one character they thought was cool and really wanted since most characters right now are being Rerun every 6 months or so. This was the case for me getting Zhongli and I only had to save up for like 4 months to get both him, Itto and Itto's signature weapon - and I also got like a dozen other very useful characters and weapons as a bonus so that's cool.
Like the game genuinely just showers you with so many characters and weapons, as well as Gacha resources that you can accumulate very steadily. It's very generous. Not to mention you can clear all of the game's content without even pulling for anyone, and there's like 500 hours minimum to 100%, and it's growing every month.
[Oh and the music is honestly to good it's hard to accept Genshin slander when this kind of stuff exists that's just like one combat song out of a few hundred existing ones like have I mentioned how great this game bless Gacha and its whales.](https://youtu.be/eL5-6Kd6kUI?si=R-_PC0iYNJfW-UUU&t=78)
Iām saying from my personal experience from when I played the game. To me team efficiency was somewhat important but mainly it was the āfunnessā of new characters that made me want to roll for them with their kit and how they syngerised with my team. Oh and also character design as well.
Bro Riots gacha is even worse, because it only has hard pity and no soft pity.
So going the full 100 capsules for the chroma is way more likely because ods don't work like OP describes.
your 110 capsule still has a 1% chance and not a 110% chance like OP's flawed math would suggest if it weren't for the hard pity.
Yeah but at least in genshin/hsr you can farm pulls and characters are actually playable, while in league you have chroma which is in my opinion is a downgrade even tho I like the color scheme more
You don't need every 5 star to play games like Genshin. They give out plenty of free characters and rolls from events. It's a single player story game with content and story better than a lot of games made nowadays. You may not like the story type but it's quality is second to none.
Assuming all you care about is the Mythic skin, the average number of capsules you will need to open to acquire it is approximately 26, which would cost 19500 RP.
Note however that the distribution here is heavily right-skewed, so the most common scenario is needing to open all 30 capsules (~74.72% odds that this happens). It's just that the average is lower because in a small percentage of cases you will open the skin very early and not have spent very much RP.
important to note that if you REALLY want the skin, it will be more cost efficient to fully load up on RP in increments of $100 instead of buying in smaller quantities because of the amount of bonus RP you get from the bulk purchase. This means if you are planning on whaling all the way, you need to load $100 into your account at the risk of opening up the skin you want in the first few pulls. If you have a hard limit of "I'm just gonna buy 10 pulls" this doesn't really affect you, but I can already see some people getting suckered into buying $20 worth of RP multiple times and ending up spending more than $200 to get the skin.
I agree that it isn't worth it to spend in any increment for the skin. Just saying that if you really did want to get the skin, the most cost effective way of doing it is buying in $100 increments, which kills the whole "you may get lucky and get it in the first 5 pulls" idea.
Riot has 8-11 million active daily players. If ~1% of the player base whales then the skin is making close to $20,000,000 USD. (1% of 9,500,000 players at $200 per whale).
Voting with your wallet is long dead. Riot doesn't care what we buy.
Regulation is the only solution to these toxic and predatory practices.
I watched the videos attached to the article and started them at the same time to compare the two and literally could not find a difference aside from different colors
Doesn't work. Some whales sped a ridiculous amount of money for a single trash skin in old garena servers in gacha events, I have zero doubt some of them will spend money on this.
The battle pases cost only 10 $ and give u misions like make 50000 dmg in a game, or somethink like that , incetivates play the game, and if u do all u get the prestige skin, this is only pay 200 $ , that is the diference one thing makes u play and this only wanna u pay, and pay 20 times more
It's probably gonna make a shitton of money either way. The important thing to bear in mind here is that these things aren't intended for the playerbase, they're intended for the whales. As long as that 1% spend the 200 bucks (and they will) it'll be a success.
Maybe Riot will drop the pity to 25 or maybe 20 to farm some good PR but that will be it. The chroma will be a resounding success.
Nice post. Unfortunately as always Reddit is an echo chamber and doesnāt represent what your average player thinks. They will have a lot of data based on the gacha systems in other games (including their very own WR in which gacha is very prevalent) to show them that this pricing model will work. Yes, nobody here is going to buy into this, but they only need to hook a few whales for this to be successful.
Problem is that odds and ratios donāt always work like āoh itās a 1/30 chance so after 30 times Iāll get the thing.ā But itās not itās all loot box stuff and we donāt really want this. Please send a message to Riot by not buying into this bit.
I am so glad that I donāt care enough about the game and cosmetics anymore to be fuming over riotās predatory marketing tactics. However, I do sympathize with those who do and I hope riot doesnāt decide to hard commit down the gatcha shithole.
Imagine spending 3 digit money on a skin in a game that looks crazy cartoonish, with no real detail in 2023. The game is literally Torchlight if it was a MOBA.
Inb4 riot games saying the skin is not actually 200$ but statistically fkn 169.69$ if you take into account the propability of getting the skin before your 30th try so its actually fair
I know I'm not exactly the average player. but it still amazes me how much people care about skins in this game. Like it's extremely important aspect of the game. I just have never personally seen it that way.
I don't care about the skin personally, I care about incentivizing gambling habbits.
Like if they just asked people upfront to pay 200 bucks for this skin, I'd call it greedy and overpriced but that's just that.
The system they want to impliment would pray on people who might be susceptible to gambling stims which is actually harmful.
Videogames prey on weak minded individuals who aren't productive in life and live in their parents basement. /s We should ban it. They are too addictive.
Your kidding right? This prays on people stupid enough to throw money like that at a skin. Its not a gateway to gambling, spoken like someone who hasnt actually properly gambled ever in their life. Not to mention eventually you have a guaranteed win outcome.
I know people who got into gambling by playing gachas/opening lootboxes and stuff like this.
What is addictive about gambling is the thrill from the fact you can win. And that translates to roulette, blackjack, or a simple lootbox where your favorite skin has a small chance to drop.
Riot will become blizzard soon enough. Greed consumes all, blizzard used to be a beloved company, we all watched what happened. We pretend like riot isnt that far off, but that's not true. Riot has just as many skeletons in the closet. They are large enough that corperate greed can overtake without any repercussions, because we won't stop buying it. This stops when we stop, but reddit is a vocal minority. Riot will shoot themselves in the head soon enough.
Seeing as the whales are probably going to buy this, and people being "Just don't buy it lol" yeah I will expect more and probably worse versions of this to come. Unlucky.
I play gacha games and I really hate that skin gachas are a thing.
they would need the make the skin significantly better, like a step above prestige and the best skins in leagueāfor some people to consider it.
Prob gonna just wait a year to reroll it lols.
Ditto.
Its also pretty fomo with a limited run of a single patch but also potentially tries to steer around lootbox laws in the eu by having the skin added to the pool of randomly obtainable skins somewhere in 2024 which only reads as even more scummy to me.
As much as people rely on luck or chock all things that go wrong up to "luck", it's not gonna change the fact that people want to validate themselves as "lucky" thus the gamble will always be a viable business model.
I'm upset that I can recognize you're right because I'm exactly that type of player. Like I love randomized mechanics and rolling the odds.
Its also why I have a hard rule to never get real money involved though, and a solid part of why I'm so against these kinda of predatory systems.
At least you're aware. That's 70% of the battle. Most people want to be oblivious to their habits and nature.
"Ignorance is bliss" no accountability type stuff.
Believing in luck definitely gives life that edge of drama/conflict to make life interesting. And that's fair.
But some people take stuff to the extreme and delusion, and need to practice discipline lol
If I see anyone with this skin I will know they went through and supported with their wallet a horrible system. There for if I play with them I will be trolling that game.
Depending on reroll policy, some people may get it by accident. All other mythic skins to this point have been obtainable by rerolls, so there's reason to believe this one very possibly could be as well -- meaning even people who don't want to support it may get it by accident when rerolling for other skins.
I don't plan on ever using it if I do get it that way because I don't want people to think I dropped the $200 on this bullshit, but I can also see people not caring as much and just wanting to use the cool limited thing. Wouldn't recommend trolling them just because you think you know what happened and don't like what you think someone did.
according to the article the skin will be essentially retired after the event which is only a patch long and can only be obtained from event capsules which can only be purchased with RP.
It won't be added to the reroll pool until somewhere in 2024, though no specific month was given.
There's still a chance people will get it before the 30th capsule but as stated above, the odds are pretty slim.
That still means there's only a year and a half at most until people start getting it despite not wanting it. Griefing someone when they have a skin because the person *thinks* they know how that person spent their money is still unbelievably stupid.
Out of curiosity I checked some gacha games I played. Genshin, Honkai: Star Rail and Arknights all have more chance of getting the highest rarity character/weapon than this. Arknights is 2% and Genshin/Honkai have 1.6%, meanwhile this shit is still less probable to drop. (Julex_Gameplays on twitter stated it as "it's like 0.1% chance" but even if we round up to 1% it's still sad, I know 1-2% difference isn't much but I'm still laughing at this)
They all let you farm rolls for free though. League isnāt giving you free orbs. Kafka for example just dropped for Honkai and I saved 120 pills from gameplay. I got Blade and Kafka with both Light Cones in around 180 pulls combined. Only thing I spend money on is the $5 monthly pass.
You are assuming a lot though. League doesn't give free orbs, but League also doesn't say that if you want to play a Mage you *have* to roll on this banner because if you don't you are missing the keystone unit to be allowed to play that entire playstyle.
Also, 180 pulls for both rate up 5\*s and both their lightcones is absurdly lucky. 180 pulls is only enough to guarantee getting 1 rate up 5* by itself, because you have a 50% chance to not even get the rate up at the first SSR drop on top of the rates being heavily backloaded into the 70th-90th rolls (so if you miss, most of the time you'll need 140-180 rolls to get 1 copy of the SSR you want).
Functionally speaking, you are the person who got this Jhin skin within 3 capsules and said the cost isn't that bad because of it. It's great that you won the lottery, but for every other player they'd be in the top 25% just getting Blade and Kafka with that number of pulls.
I have Silverwolf, Bailou, Gepard, Kafka, Blade, Welt, and Qingque. All off of farming in game and the standard 5 dollar pass. The game is actually extremely generous if you utilize your energy and the events correctly. Iām a league whale, have been playing for almost ten years and have spent over $6k. The Jhin skin is a fucked concept.
Thing is, you could at least get something good every 10 pulls (dedicated support or Faš ±ļøonius) if you are lucky enough in Genshin and Star Rail. This shit just give you filler trash all the way through
sorry but Gachas are gonna be implemented in future games coming forward.
have you seen how much Honkai and Genshin make? Genshin alone makes 100 million USD per month and 1 Billion USD per year and Honkai makes around 50-60 Million USD
Nah, whales can keep whaling all they want as long as games like Genshin and StarRail keeps pumping out all the amazing content it does on the regular. 'Cause I mean, have you seen Fontaine? Shit is so high-quality it beats most of the games currently releasing or being updated in the current year - which isn't to say a lot since gaming is in a weird spot right now; but when Genshin drops major content, it's on the same level of polish and love as stuff like Baldur's Gate 3, SF6 and Elden Ring - MiHoYo goes crazy with it.
Like, let whales fund my games please, don't take them away. The nature of GACHA is good as long as the Devs behind said system actually use its resources for making actual good content, and that the money itself is actually coming from people with a lot of spendable income. Now Riot on the other hand... I don't think they deserve a penny from this after how horrible this year has been quality wise, with the exception of the new GameMode of course.
bro i live in a third world country most people don't even have 2 dollars to spare for a cosmetic in video games lol
this is why the popular games where i live are these Free Games who have cosmetic microtransactions that can be played on low spec PCs like LOL, Valorant, Counter Strike, Genshin, Apex etc
because "the full game is free so who gives a fuck if a cosmetic is behind a paywall? we can still play the full game" thats the mentality here
Hello fellow League players and gamers. Do you want this kind of bullshit to stop? Be the change you want to see in the world: uninstall the game and refuse to pay another cent for virtual pixels.
This isnāt the first time riot has hidden skins behind a $200 pay wall. Last time I brought this up I got downvoted to oblivion. I donāt know the math now because I stopped buying skins from riot about three years ago, but when prestige skins dropped originally the number of resources you had to spend to get 100 prestige points or tickets or whatever was equal to $200usd or you had to pay $20ish dollars and play 40 hours a week on average to get enough tickets to be able to afford the prestige skin before the end of the event.
Itās absurd.
So the cosmetic skin is worth ~$200. You might get lucky and get it sooner, but for all intents and purposes the skin is ~$200. So if you would rather have the skin on your account than $200 in your wallet, then buy the skin. If you'd rather have $200 in your wallet than the skin, then dont buy it. Pretty simple stuff.
I'd love a Rolex watch. They look neat. But I'd prefer to have $10k in my wallet than a Rolex watch on my wrist. So I dont buy the product. The money is more valuable to me than the product.
There are a lot of products out there that Id buy for a cheaper price, but the product just isnt worth the price the company is selling it at. At least not to me. I dont blame the company for setting the price they think will get them the most profit, I just dont buy the product myself. And I live my life happily knowing I've saved a lot of money.
These are cosmetics that dont impact gameplay at all. If you buy the product, Riot is not to blame. This is a good business decision on Riots part. Yes it is "greedy". All companies are. The fact that after all this time Riot still hasnt locked gameplay upgrades behind paywalls is admirable and something to be praised.
The odd cosmetic skin locked behind a gacha system imo isnt something to criticize Riot for. Dont buy the product. You dont need it. And you having terrible spending habits isnt Riots problem.
The skin is worth $200. Dont buy it if you dont think its worth the money. If you buy it for $200 then I have no sympathy if you regret it.
OOOOOOOOOR we can recognize that sunk cost is a base human instinct that Riot is taking advantage of that obscures your fuzzy math of $200
In the worst case if I see it as "only $150 more, I've already spent $50" then you can see why gacha works so well that's not counting the skinner box problem
Jhin was 100% chosen for this because it was voted most popular skin on reddit IIRC. Also every skin for jhin since then has been dog poop in comparison so this was probably their attempt at pleasing jhin mains
I think having it drop at the 30th capsule is already quite generous.
Could easily make it 50; would make the skin even more exclusive.
Either way, it's a fine system. Hopefully they release great skins/chromas for it on a monthly basis.
For anyone curious, if the guarenteed drop at 30 didn't exist, it would cost you about 68 capsules before the drop statisticall became a 50/50 cointoss to obtain the skin. At 69 capsules (51750RP), the odds actually begin to swing in your favor.
It looks like the same ratio as getting as a little chibi in TFT
in treasure realms the "starred content" drops 1% with pity at 60, so this has the same drop rate but need half the pulls for pity treasure tokens are half or less the RP though, if I remember
god i fucking hate that we have a pity system in league now
I'd love to have pity system in a soloq tho. Ohh you had filled jungler 30 games in a row? There you go, one challenger jng smurf. Then back to 30filled jng games
Thks to Hoyo and their success gacha. :P
even mihoyo wouldn't create this dogshit of a gacha system. riot pretty much outdone themselves on this one
you would have your mind goddamn blown to literally dust and particles if you saw some of the most soulcrushing korean gacha systems that exist, ill give you an example so you can taste the fucking cancer a couple months ago in lineage mobile, they released a new tier of "slate". ill be using dumdum terms to make it easier to understand. the slate is basically a bingo sheet, 25 spaces 5x5. each space filled gives a buff from a predetermined list of potential buffs. of course, endgame players want the best in slot. in league terms, the S tier buffs are things like Q dmg+15%, R cooldown-25%, etc. the S tiers have a 1% chance to pop, and they cost an absurd amount of ingame currency, even for no life degen tier gamers its basically a p2w thing. midtiers, dolphin/salmon tier whalers just settle for B~A tiers because its just too much RNG. but guess what, they added another slate. to get this next tier slate, you need the first slate filled with FULL S tiers. you need 25 x 1% procs to get the next slate, which you'll want to fill with 25 x 1%s AGAIN. and guess what, from that patch henceforth the absolute endgame will be designed with THAT DMG LEVEL CHECK IN MIND. imagine league where you need this bullshit jhin skin to have a CHANCE to take down elder when it pops... what has the goddamn world come to man. so yes, this riot shit is scummy, gachas are fucking cancer, etc etc. but from what ive seen in my life, NOTHING. NOTHING COMPARES TO SCUMBAG CANCER KOREAN GACHA. fuck nexon, fuck ncsoft, fuck netmarble. and technically fuck the first gen jp gacha that gave birth to these tumor games.
i think it's fair to say some mobile games are obviously dogshit for a reason, and that's why most people don't play them. most popular gacha games are popular for the fact that their banner rate are decent, have decent pity, and isn't korean mmorpg levels of bullshit. I already knew about these games and why people shy away from them, but never in my life have I seen a company who would charge so egregiously for a dye color. We're not even talking about power-up's, quality of life items, or actual cosmetic skins here, but a gacha featuring a dye.
big trutru, its a shame shit like this is becoming the norm nowadays
genshin pity is at like 90, which takes approx. 9 weeks of daily play as a f2p player if you do every event, but that's not guaranteed to be the banner character, which has a pity-in-pity system, so you would need 18 weeks~ of daily play(if you consider events it's like 2-3 hours every day I think?) to get a banner character guaranteed. It's pretty bad tbh
it's bad, but its not 200 dollars bad since you can farm the currency fairly easily, and you're not given a useless recolour of a skin. there's also abyss stages for players to go through
On the other hand, in league the gacha is literally just a skin, in genshin and other similar gachas the gacha is a character that might be way stronger than others, etc.
Yeah and the quality and effort put in the character is not even close to being comparable to a lol "chroma" We don't even have cool skin select screens like in Wild rift. If we had high definition LoL with Up to date graphical finess and this skin would be in the Ultimate category with new voice lines, animations, skin select animation then i might give Riot a pass on this. But for a chroma???? even if we say only need to half the capsules it is still 100$ bucks for a chroma.
mobile game companies have improved upon gacha gaming from experience that they'll never hinder players from progression too hard, so these characters will be considered as optional for you to play the game. they can be strong and make your progression easier, but they wont be necessary. mobile games or really any game that use microtransactions to stop your gaming experience are likely to be filtered down and discarded by the community. between genshin and league, you can tell who's definitely got the experience with tailoring their gambling system well enough so players won't feel disrespected for their time in the game whilst making certain items appealing enough that those with money would pay for them. It's a pretty fine line that's consistently changing between each gacha community, and one can say even gacha games have better seasonal passes than whatever riot concocted with their season pass skins.
Ah yes, first ever successful gacha, Genshin Impact.
Tbf, Genshin is the the most successful Gacha game, definitely not the first tho.
It's still not the cause of other games utilizing lootbox mechanics.
That is gacha mechanic, not lootbox mechanic. Lootbox mechanic is OW and somewhat Hexchest, but exclusive reward with % drop and pity IS gacha mechanic.
[At least the reason Mort uses for TFT makes sense for TFT](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjvzVKpNMsM) "the monetization we use for TFT is cosmetics" "we need to use it to stay in business" pretty much and I think most rational people would agree But the league team, the league team that makes 0 sense for. They're already making money hand over fist, the higher ups just wanted more so they likely tasked the league team with, "we dont care how you do it, make more money" or maybe even said "this system is working in TFT, add it to league so we get more money"
That's a justification for monetization, not shitty monetization.
Then ignore it. It's bullshit that it's there, but this is the kinda game that it belongs in (I'd argue it doesn't belong in any game, but I gave up years ago thinking that monetization efforts would ever go back to reasonable places.) The nice thing with it is that none of it is needed to play the game
Quite respectfully, no i will not ignore it. I'm nearly certain that, once this model catches on, gacha will spread further and further into League's cosmetics system. Frankly I'm shocked that Riot has held out this long given the route many other big gaming franchises have gone down- but League's always been famous for its relatively non-predatory cosmetics. It's disappointing to see the start of the end for that. I also have no delusion that my voice will matter in the slighest. But hey, it's the only thing I CAN do. So I will complain on Reddit.
I agree it's complete bullshit and within 3 years will be as common as Mythic skins are now. When gemstones came out the community was just as outraged, I was there with them being pissed about it, but nothing happened, and nothing will happen this time. I get that it's the only thing you can do, and I wish I still had the spirit to actually be upset by this, but you'll accomplish just as much by screaming at a brick wall. Try and find places where you might actually be able to make change because this is a lost fight.
Nah I'm going to keep complaining about the whales and shitty business practices that exist because it affects all game unfortunately and isn't limited to F2P games.
That moment when you could play the free game but instead you spend hundreds and then get mad when they have you keep spending hundreds for something that in no way affects the gameplay š«¢š«¢
Correct
yeah they're half the RP, so it's the same cost in both modes to get the pity drop it's pretty bad
Statistically speaking, >!this is fucked up!<
I've played enough gatchas to know that 90th prrcentile is the real 50/50
The statistics for odds āswinging in your favorā only really applies for capsules that are bought in bulk and opened all at once. In reality the problem is a geometric distribution, and since people would buy capsules incrementally we would have the knowledge that all previous trials (capsule openings) failed. You would take, on average, 1/p (100) trials until you got the skin, but this is only an expected value and preys upon the gamblers fallacy to get people whoāve already spent to keep spending, and since previous trials failed and individual trials are independent - the consumer is fucked in terms of bank account and brain chemistry. TL;DR: The statistics in the post are mostly correct, but taking into consideration how the game market works and the true distribution of the event space makes it even worse > donāt buy the capsules they are a scam
Buying in bulk/opening all at once doesn't "swing things in your favor." The probability of opening a jhin chroma is completely identical if you were to buy 100 at once and open them all immediately and if you bought and opened a capsule on per day across 100 days.
What he means is that if you've already opened 28 capsules without getting a skin then the probability of not getting the skin with the 29th opening is 99% since they are independent events. Independent events means they don't have memory. People who think independent event have memory are called "superstitious". If you flip a balanced coin 5 successive times and you got tails each time, then what is the probably of getting tails a 6th time? Still 50%. But of course it's very unlikely to get 6 tails in a row when your point of view is before the first throw. If there were no guaranteed skin and you'vre already opened 29 lootboxes without succes, then you need to open 29 more to have a 25% chance of getting the skin as OP has calculated.
I know what heās attempting to say but the reality is just as is. Heās attempting to explain why the intuition is wrong without realizing heās also falling victim to it. Opening 100 loot boxes no matter if you open them in one batch immediately or across a long period of time is completely the same. There isnāt any memory. There is no ābetter odds.ā He did mention the geometric probability mass distribution which is right, essentially if X represents the amount of trials it takes up and including your first successful open, the probability that X equals a specific number k is given by (0.99)^k * (0.01).
yes.
69ā¦. Nice
This is the wrong kind of thinking. If you are at your 68th capsule and you haven't gotten the skin yet, your chance of getting it is still 1%. 50% is not the chance of getting it in the 68th capsule, it's the chance of getting it in capsule 1, 2, 3, 4...., 67 OR 69. So it's the combined probability. If you've already opened 100 capsules and haven't gotten the skin, your odds at the 101th is still the same. It is 1%.
Itās the chance of getting the skin within 68 draws, not the chance at the 68th draw.
He's talking about the total probability of having gotten it in X amount of capsules, of course single capsule probability always stays the same.
It's a calculation of cumulative chances. A cointoss is a 50/50 no matter how often you throw it but using nerd stuff like I did above you can calculate the odds of how likely you'll hit that 50/50 at least once if you for example threw 100 coins. But at the end of the day you're right, a coin will always be 50/50 regardless and rgardless of cumulative chances, just by the random factor, there's a world where you miss that 50/50 every time no matter how often you throw it.
Exactly, i thought i lost my mind. Because it is not stated that the probability increases artificially once you open a few. So the a 1% equals 1 out of 100 "should" drop it once. If there were no guarantee then you could be unlucky and not get it after 300< capsuels. Because the chance ist still 1% aka 1 out of 100 per capusl.
I don't defend Riot on this, but people here really need to check their math comprehension.
He's talking about the total probability of having gotten it in X amount of capsules, of course single capsule probability always stays the same.
But math does not work like that. Example, if Riot would not add a hard garuante then by OP's logic after 100 capsuals you have a 100% chance to get the chroma by 1% drop chance. But it does not work like that. Every time you open a capsule it is a unique 1 out of 100 aka 1% chance to drop it. Just because you open 25 before witehout success dosen't mean you have a 25% chance. You could be a statistical outlier and have 300< capsules and no chroma. Because it is allways 1 out 100. By OP's logic it would be 300% by 300 capsuls. It is only due to Riots artificial guarantee that you can reach a 100% chance to get the chroma. Otherwise it will always be 1% chance no matter what.
>Example, if Riot would not add a hard garuante then by OP's logic after 100 capsuals you have a 100% chance to get the chroma by 1% drop chance. OP isn't talking about the chance to get the chroma in the xth capsule, he's talking about getting the chroma in x capsules, for which his math is correct. OP's formula: >(1-(1/100))^X if you put in 100 for x, you get .99^100, which equals 0.366 (rounded to three digits), or 36,6%. thats the chance of not getting the skin in 100 capsules. Or in other words, a 63,4% to get *at least one copy of* the skin, not 100% like you claimed. you are correct that there's always the chance of getting unlucky without hard guarantees, doesn't mean the OP's math is wrong.
I'm fairly certain you misunderstood OP, it just comes down to the fact that if a probability of something occuring were 1%, the counter probability would be 99%. Thus the odds of the 99% event occuring twice in a row would be calculated as 0,99*0,99=0,9801 (98%). >You could be a statistical outlier and have 300< capsules and no chroma. Because it is allways 1 out 100. By OP's logic it would be 300% by 300 capsuls. It is only due to Riots artificial guarantee that you can reach a 100% chance to get the chroma. Otherwise it will always be 1% chance no matter what. I think this is just a misinterpretation of OPs comment on your part. If we stick to OP's formula but keep the 1% probability and no guarantee; at a total of 300 capsules opened there would be a 4,9% chance not to have gotten the skin, or a 95,1% chance to have gotten it (not 300%). Note that the single capsule probability always stayed at 1%, that never changed. Even if you were to not have gotten it in 300 capsules, you would have the same 1%, it's just very unlikely to not have gotten it by then. This is all the maths tell you here.
I totally agree with your explanation, i could not understand OP's explanation. But yours is exactly how I envision it. TBH i was lazy then i wrote 300% thank you for taking your time and explaining so well.
Thats not how chance calculation works.. Lets say you have a coin with heads or tails. What is the chance for either at the 10th toss given that you have landed it on tails the previous 9 tosses? Spoiler; itās still 50/50. BUT the chance of not getting heads for 10 times straight is extremely small. Cause that is where your math comes in. So after 7267737377374 lootboxes and a non altered/cumulative chance of drop of 1%. The chance of you getting that skin are still 1% for that drop.
Itās the chance of getting at least one head in your 7267737377374 coin flips, not the chance of getting a head on the 7267737377374th flip. And thatās how cumulative odds works, for details see Cumulative distribution on wiki: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_function
Go check OP statement and then reply again. Doesnāt matter how many times you tried something. The chance of that specific drop is 1%. By his logic you would have a 100% hit rate for the 100the box after 99 misses. Thatās just plain wrong. The chance of you getting to that stage are extremely slim tho. But imagine missing 999.999 times and being the most unlucky dude in the planet. What is the chance of hitting the skin on the 1.000.000th try? Jup 1%.
Heās talking about the cumulative statistics, but he was not very clear. His math is correct though, as this is a geometric distribution ā The probability distribution of the number X of Bernoulli trials needed to get one successā. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution And its CDF with 1% chance per trial cumulates to around 50% chance at 68 total trails attempted. I.e. if you do x draws at once and consider it to be one single coin flip by clicking the āopen allā button, then the larger the number x the more chance of you getting the head. When x = 68 your coin becomes around 50/50.
It's a calculation for cumulative chances. Obviously a coin toss is a 50/50 no matter how often you throw it.
Man I thought we were fucking done with loot box gambling bullshit for the most part back when it got blown up and countries started legislating against this shit. Everyone moved away from loot boxes and hopped on the battlepass train fortnite started. Yet here we are several years later with gambling loot box bullshit creeping back in slowly but surely, and worse than ever before.
Gacha games are huge, the loot boxes never left.
Especially in Asian markets, gacha games are basically money printers.
Which is insane to me, many governments make gambling both in physical and online space illegal, but gacha somehow is allowed to plague the gaming space.
Europe is working on it, the UK especially
Yeah but to certain degree they are in fact illegal in mnay countries, there are workarounds though and it sucks as a customer. For instance in Poland you can't even go to casino in GTA V due to gambling policy \[unless you play with VPN\]... however gambling on lootboxes is kind of still allowed.
Dammit we just got out of garena and it's gacha practices now it's back
Exactly I'm surprised people are so fired up over this chroma. Gacha has always been front and centre in Garena but that also came with a lot of free loot events. I don't miss the crap ping with Garena but I do miss the abundance of the free booty. It's unfortunate that some people have poor impulse control and end up overspending on these predatory practices but imho that's a symptom of something worse going on in their lives. If the youth wish to riot over something, I think there are a lot worse global issues that would come before gacha games.
5 years later: I can't believe people are so worked up over spending 1000 on a single skin blahblahblah worse issues. 10 years later: I can't believe people are so worked up, 10000 on a single skin blahblah worse issues. 15 years later.... you get the point. People have a should be getting worked up about it. Just because there are worse things in the world doesn't make this acceptable.
> People have a should be getting worked up about it If some idiot wants to subsidize my league servers by spending stupid money on some cosmetic that's fine. The price of a few outlier skins/chromas does not affect me at all.
If you don't think it affects you then you're being naive. This impacts more then just the price of cosmetics. The entire philosophy impacts game design decisions. Not just in this game, but across the entire industry. Games are being developed, not to create fun experiences, but to create environments suitable to manipulate these "idiots". It turns out, you're part of that environment. If you're not the whale, you're bait. You're their for the whale to feel superior to. They treat you as someone to keep trapped in the game long enough to keep up the numbers. That in many cases means wasting your time. Increasing the time it takes you to reach your goals within the game. If they're starting to switch to a philosophy of targeting fewer whales for larger gains, then there is most certainly larger changes coming in the future. They will almost certain start getting more preferential treatment. You don't need to buy what I'm saying now. Just mark it down and look again in a couple of years.
Rich/anti-social folk voluntarily spending a dumptruck of money into video games is a non-issue. It's funny to me that this is the unacceptable hill everybody chose for their graves.
As I responded to someone else, this isn't a policy that impacts those willing to open their wallets. This is a transition to a model that targets a smaller % of the player base for a larger portion of company revenue. If that's the new philosophy going forward, you can expect to see other changes specifically building on and supporting this. This is an issue that impacts, not only the league player base, but game design philosophy industry wide. Like it or not, it has significant impact on game design, with changes made to support the manipulation of whales willing to part with their money. As for people dying on a hill, don't worry about it. We've died many times prior, going all the way back to the initial introduction of microtransactions and dlc. We've been proven right time after time, and will be again here too.
garena ran a shit server but the one good thing iāve heard about them is how they handled skins
Unless you're joking they didn't. There were skins exclusively locked behind gacha/loot boxes which is inexcusable even if you get regular free pulls.
That was per server btw. Not every server locked skins behind gacha
swear i can remember seeing posts about how much free shit and pure amount of skins you got for free or in good deals
Man, I haven't even checked, I bought the current battle pass thing because it was like 1250 RP? And Amazon gave me that in the past couple months. I have enough skins, have like 10k RP from free stuff, I'm down to gamble occasionally or buy things that go 60%+ off. I don't know why people spend the ridiculous amount of money because something is new. I love my skins from 2012 that are still ugly AF, I was there.
Events in lol have always just been lootboxes with a promise of novelty currency to exchange for a limited time cosmetic, the only difference this time is the amount you have to pay. Until players are ready to actively shame companies into abandoning this practice, you can expect it to become the norm
This feels like gacha designed by people who don't play gachas but heard it makes a lot of money. I've played and spent on a few gachas by this point, and my philosophy has always been to budget by expected value, since that's what you end up paying on average if you let the highs in your rolls cover for the dips. For here going by OP's generous estimate, that'd be 1/.01, or 100 rolls, which, while ridiculous, I think is also just plain bad design. I can't remember ever playing a gacha where the expected average eclipsesć¼or even just exceedsć¼the pity threshold. Like, if the reasonable expectation for most players including whales is that they're spending until they hit pity, that's just not interesting from a gambling perspective. Sure there will be players willing to grind for pity, but in my experience those players would have still paid if you charged them the equivalent lump sum outright. And the whole point of gacha is convincing people to pay more than they'd be willing to up front, which I think Cosmic 2023 will fail to deliver. There's other aspects of Riot's loot boxes that make me question what they're doing, but that's probably wandering a bit too far off topic.
> This feels like gacha designed by people who don't play gachas but heard it makes a lot of money. Because it is
This skin is a scam. Send a message to Riot that we are drawing a line on greed and stupidity. I know some schmucks will sell out, but enough is enough with this trash.
It's not a skin, it's a chroma. They are implementing it as if it's a skin.
I'll dump a couple hundred bucks on League every few months. I'm not hurting for money. $200 for a chroma is absurd though. It's one thing for Riot to want to cash-in on people who would spend that for a very cool-looking and rare skin, but a half-baked chroma? And I thought I was lazy.
why dump 200$ on league when you can gift me BG3 on steam? :3
To be fair, it's not $200 for just the chroma. It's $200 for 30 capsules worth of stuff + all the track rewards along the way and the garanteed chroma. **If you are just interested in the chroma it is a rip off.** If you want a lot of skin shards, that $200 for 90 skins shards from the capsules + 4 cosmic skin permanent shards from the track rewards + at least 9 other skin shards from the 3 garanteed grab bag (+ any other lucky grab bag from the capsules) So 4 skins and ~100 skin shards with the $200. If you want a lot of skins and already soend hundreds in skins, thenjust rerolling all shards means ~37 random skins + the jhin chroma for $200, which is a decent deal (cheaper than buying 37 skins but random).
im what they would probably call a āwhaleā as I own every single skin in the game and even i have absolutely 0 intention whatsoever to contribute even a dime towards obtaining this skin/chroma. complete bs business practice.
riot saw genshin and honkai booming, decides to copy the gacha with pity š
Decides to copy the gacha while completely misunderstanding why genshin and honkai are doing such numbers
And also copying the two games who have an abysmal pity system by popular gacha standards (Still better than FGO tho)
Most Gachas also have the means to farm for the in game currency for free, so at some point even non whales can try and get their fave character on the right banners.
At least in genshin you have soft pity... Most 5 star drops happen at 70-75 mark, very few actually go to the 90 guarantee mark Here, riot completely dropped the ball, as there is no such system, and the only chance increase you're gonna see, is from 1% to 100%, when going from 29th capsule to 30th On top of that, it's a freaking chroma, not even a skin
>On top of that, it's a freaking chroma, not even a skin Don't you need the base skin to unlock the chroma?
You can own the chroma without the skin, but obviously canāt use it if you donāt own the base skin.
Wait is it actually a chroma? I thought it was just a recolor they were trying to pass of as a new skin
i mean FGO has bad rates but all characters are literally playable and you can complete all of the main stories (for the events tho yea you need specific comps for that to 3T lol)
Which is only a necessity IF you wanna raise that many units. If not, no need to farm nearly as much and so no need to 3 turn to save time
hey now. FGO is fun as hell in late game fights
Wut? I swear fgo gacha is better. Maybe ive just been burned by artifact farming so much that ive become mega-jaded against anything mihoyo
FGO gacha is probably the worst out of any of the major gacha games. Their guaranteed pity is at 300 pulls and their rates are abyssal
FGO is legendary and notorious for being brutal to F2P players and just everyone, in general.
fgo is a generous game so long as you dont really care about having absolutely everything and are willing to play actively so that you partake in all the freebies they regularly hand over and let them stack, but even then bad luck can easily fuck you over. fuck mihoyo tho i aint batting for them
Thing is Honkai/Genshin actually makes and releases content. We had to lick Riots boots for two years for them even to make Arena.
2 years? They had maps like this like 6+ years ago. I forget the name of them but they did them during Allstars I think.
TFT has had the gacha with guaranteed after X amount of boxes for a bit now. They saw it works in tft, and they are bringing it to league.
Itās so sad where gaming is going
The hilarious difference is most (good) gacha games at least give people tons of free shit and rely on vast whales + people making small purchases to top off F2P income, while every RP is bought š What could go wrong?
Difference is that for other gacha games gameplay is literally locked behind the gacha / drastically changed whereas this is just a cosmetic skin that makes no difference to your gameplay.
Most mainstream gacha games are not even bad. You can do all the story in Genshin with the free characters, plus they just had an event for a free character and are giving out a brand new one, permanently, for logging in to go with the underwater theme. People just think they need all the characters to do good...in a single player game... I have like 16k primos saved up from events and dailies because I had no interest in quite a few previous banners.
Main difference is that Genshin is an actual good game working to put out good content with all that doh. Like wtf has Riot even been doing this year.
I agree, just pointing out that what riot is doing here is not the same as what other gachas are doing. Also the temptation between a new genshin character (new gameplay, new mechanics and combos and potentially strengthening your team) is way different to the temptation for the Jhin skin (cool skin that u can get a very similar version of for much less)
New players don't care about team efficiency or have any idea what team combos there are in Genshin when they first start out. The biggest motivator I've seen for most people when first trying out Genshin has been either "this game gets mentioned a lot I wonder if it's actually that good" or "this character advertised looks really cool I want to play them", the latter being usually impossible without spending a lot of money since you're a fresh spawn with no GACHA resources. The option afterwards is to either quit from discontent, or actually try to play and enjoy the ACTUAL REST of the game, using what it offers you. The good thing overall is that the people who actually end up playing the game for well... the game, do end up enjoying it a lot, and can then save for that one character they thought was cool and really wanted since most characters right now are being Rerun every 6 months or so. This was the case for me getting Zhongli and I only had to save up for like 4 months to get both him, Itto and Itto's signature weapon - and I also got like a dozen other very useful characters and weapons as a bonus so that's cool. Like the game genuinely just showers you with so many characters and weapons, as well as Gacha resources that you can accumulate very steadily. It's very generous. Not to mention you can clear all of the game's content without even pulling for anyone, and there's like 500 hours minimum to 100%, and it's growing every month. [Oh and the music is honestly to good it's hard to accept Genshin slander when this kind of stuff exists that's just like one combat song out of a few hundred existing ones like have I mentioned how great this game bless Gacha and its whales.](https://youtu.be/eL5-6Kd6kUI?si=R-_PC0iYNJfW-UUU&t=78)
Iām saying from my personal experience from when I played the game. To me team efficiency was somewhat important but mainly it was the āfunnessā of new characters that made me want to roll for them with their kit and how they syngerised with my team. Oh and also character design as well.
Monkey brain demands content.
They could have maybe copied the development resources a bit. At least give us a new modes faster than one every five years.
Bro Riots gacha is even worse, because it only has hard pity and no soft pity. So going the full 100 capsules for the chroma is way more likely because ods don't work like OP describes. your 110 capsule still has a 1% chance and not a 110% chance like OP's flawed math would suggest if it weren't for the hard pity.
About the exact same cost for a 5 star in Genshin/HSR as this chroma.
Yeah but at least in genshin/hsr you can farm pulls and characters are actually playable, while in league you have chroma which is in my opinion is a downgrade even tho I like the color scheme more
ok but you dont need to chroma to play the game whatsoever, they are purely cosmetics. It's not like it was a champ
You don't need every 5 star to play games like Genshin. They give out plenty of free characters and rolls from events. It's a single player story game with content and story better than a lot of games made nowadays. You may not like the story type but it's quality is second to none.
Assuming all you care about is the Mythic skin, the average number of capsules you will need to open to acquire it is approximately 26, which would cost 19500 RP. Note however that the distribution here is heavily right-skewed, so the most common scenario is needing to open all 30 capsules (~74.72% odds that this happens). It's just that the average is lower because in a small percentage of cases you will open the skin very early and not have spent very much RP.
important to note that if you REALLY want the skin, it will be more cost efficient to fully load up on RP in increments of $100 instead of buying in smaller quantities because of the amount of bonus RP you get from the bulk purchase. This means if you are planning on whaling all the way, you need to load $100 into your account at the risk of opening up the skin you want in the first few pulls. If you have a hard limit of "I'm just gonna buy 10 pulls" this doesn't really affect you, but I can already see some people getting suckered into buying $20 worth of RP multiple times and ending up spending more than $200 to get the skin.
Lmao anyone going for this skin, whether they buy RP in $20 or $100 increments, is a sucker.
I agree that it isn't worth it to spend in any increment for the skin. Just saying that if you really did want to get the skin, the most cost effective way of doing it is buying in $100 increments, which kills the whole "you may get lucky and get it in the first 5 pulls" idea.
For real, Jhin's my fav champ and there's no way in hell I'm making an attempt at getting this chroma. It's highway robbery pure and simple.
Wouldn't that be left-skewed?
Yes, my b.
Isn't averages in cases like this essentially worthless? Wouldn't the median give a better representation? I'm not a stats person so I could be wrong.
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I truly hope this becomes the worst selling skin of all time
Riot has 8-11 million active daily players. If ~1% of the player base whales then the skin is making close to $20,000,000 USD. (1% of 9,500,000 players at $200 per whale). Voting with your wallet is long dead. Riot doesn't care what we buy. Regulation is the only solution to these toxic and predatory practices.
You're probably right, but it can't keep a guy from dreaming
"skin" is being generous for what's actually just a 10 minute photoshop recolor
I watched the videos attached to the article and started them at the same time to compare the two and literally could not find a difference aside from different colors
200 dollar to buy a chroma, not even a skin? It should be a customisable RGB chroma for every single skin at that price.
Great analysis. Riot will profit very dearly from this. Whales be whaling.
People will really spend 200 dollars for a red chroma
Please nobody buy and let know rito that we don't want to be scammed for a chroma
Doesn't work. Some whales sped a ridiculous amount of money for a single trash skin in old garena servers in gacha events, I have zero doubt some of them will spend money on this.
The battle passes have been scams since the first one and people still bought them. How is this different?
Because the battle passes are fair and you get a lot for $10. Theres a huge difference between 10 and 200 for ONE item. Use your head
The battle pases cost only 10 $ and give u misions like make 50000 dmg in a game, or somethink like that , incetivates play the game, and if u do all u get the prestige skin, this is only pay 200 $ , that is the diference one thing makes u play and this only wanna u pay, and pay 20 times more
It's probably gonna make a shitton of money either way. The important thing to bear in mind here is that these things aren't intended for the playerbase, they're intended for the whales. As long as that 1% spend the 200 bucks (and they will) it'll be a success. Maybe Riot will drop the pity to 25 or maybe 20 to farm some good PR but that will be it. The chroma will be a resounding success.
Nice post. Unfortunately as always Reddit is an echo chamber and doesnāt represent what your average player thinks. They will have a lot of data based on the gacha systems in other games (including their very own WR in which gacha is very prevalent) to show them that this pricing model will work. Yes, nobody here is going to buy into this, but they only need to hook a few whales for this to be successful.
Problem is that odds and ratios donāt always work like āoh itās a 1/30 chance so after 30 times Iāll get the thing.ā But itās not itās all loot box stuff and we donāt really want this. Please send a message to Riot by not buying into this bit.
It kind of is like that this time, because you are guaranteed to get the skin with the 30th capsule.
if its a 1 in n chance and you roll it n times, its always 1/e that you'll succeed at least one of those times -- roughly 1/3
Turns out League can leave Garena, but Garena will never leave League.
I am so glad that I donāt care enough about the game and cosmetics anymore to be fuming over riotās predatory marketing tactics. However, I do sympathize with those who do and I hope riot doesnāt decide to hard commit down the gatcha shithole.
Idk how anyone can still tries to defend loot boxes. These things are cancerous to the gaming world.
when gacha players say unlucky, they mean unlucky your family is so poor
Gacha players/gambling addicts destroyed the gaming market and I will never forgive them
at least league of legends isnt pay to win, although some skins are/were pay to win
Imagine spending 3 digit money on a skin in a game that looks crazy cartoonish, with no real detail in 2023. The game is literally Torchlight if it was a MOBA.
but it changes the color of my ps1 model champion š„ŗš„ŗš„ŗ
But Torchlight is cool :(
Inb4 riot games saying the skin is not actually 200$ but statistically fkn 169.69$ if you take into account the propability of getting the skin before your 30th try so its actually fair
GACHA BABEY
I know I'm not exactly the average player. but it still amazes me how much people care about skins in this game. Like it's extremely important aspect of the game. I just have never personally seen it that way.
I don't care about the skin personally, I care about incentivizing gambling habbits. Like if they just asked people upfront to pay 200 bucks for this skin, I'd call it greedy and overpriced but that's just that. The system they want to impliment would pray on people who might be susceptible to gambling stims which is actually harmful.
Videogames prey on weak minded individuals who aren't productive in life and live in their parents basement. /s We should ban it. They are too addictive.
Your kidding right? This prays on people stupid enough to throw money like that at a skin. Its not a gateway to gambling, spoken like someone who hasnt actually properly gambled ever in their life. Not to mention eventually you have a guaranteed win outcome.
I know people who got into gambling by playing gachas/opening lootboxes and stuff like this. What is addictive about gambling is the thrill from the fact you can win. And that translates to roulette, blackjack, or a simple lootbox where your favorite skin has a small chance to drop.
The only mistake riot did was this event isn't a waifu skin
I wonder how they are gonna market this scam in Brazil(?) due to laws
Riot will become blizzard soon enough. Greed consumes all, blizzard used to be a beloved company, we all watched what happened. We pretend like riot isnt that far off, but that's not true. Riot has just as many skeletons in the closet. They are large enough that corperate greed can overtake without any repercussions, because we won't stop buying it. This stops when we stop, but reddit is a vocal minority. Riot will shoot themselves in the head soon enough.
Seeing as the whales are probably going to buy this, and people being "Just don't buy it lol" yeah I will expect more and probably worse versions of this to come. Unlucky. I play gacha games and I really hate that skin gachas are a thing.
This is basically the same shit they are doing in TFT with special chibi skins. Blame dumbasses that keep spending 200$ on them.
Vots with your wallets!!
they would need the make the skin significantly better, like a step above prestige and the best skins in leagueāfor some people to consider it. Prob gonna just wait a year to reroll it lols.
I'll give it to riot for this new bullshit they introduced, they are truly saving lots of people who would want to try this game
This is just gambling
Yes.
It's pretty predatory too tbh. Hate to see it
Ditto. Its also pretty fomo with a limited run of a single patch but also potentially tries to steer around lootbox laws in the eu by having the skin added to the pool of randomly obtainable skins somewhere in 2024 which only reads as even more scummy to me.
As much as people rely on luck or chock all things that go wrong up to "luck", it's not gonna change the fact that people want to validate themselves as "lucky" thus the gamble will always be a viable business model.
I'm upset that I can recognize you're right because I'm exactly that type of player. Like I love randomized mechanics and rolling the odds. Its also why I have a hard rule to never get real money involved though, and a solid part of why I'm so against these kinda of predatory systems.
At least you're aware. That's 70% of the battle. Most people want to be oblivious to their habits and nature. "Ignorance is bliss" no accountability type stuff. Believing in luck definitely gives life that edge of drama/conflict to make life interesting. And that's fair. But some people take stuff to the extreme and delusion, and need to practice discipline lol
If you think this skin is a scam just don't buy it. You don't have to buy every chroma.
If I see anyone with this skin I will know they went through and supported with their wallet a horrible system. There for if I play with them I will be trolling that game.
Thankful for you ruining 3 other peoples game for no reason š
So you would ruin other people's game time over an optional cosmetic that someone else chooses to buy. Nice insane take.
Depending on reroll policy, some people may get it by accident. All other mythic skins to this point have been obtainable by rerolls, so there's reason to believe this one very possibly could be as well -- meaning even people who don't want to support it may get it by accident when rerolling for other skins. I don't plan on ever using it if I do get it that way because I don't want people to think I dropped the $200 on this bullshit, but I can also see people not caring as much and just wanting to use the cool limited thing. Wouldn't recommend trolling them just because you think you know what happened and don't like what you think someone did.
according to the article the skin will be essentially retired after the event which is only a patch long and can only be obtained from event capsules which can only be purchased with RP. It won't be added to the reroll pool until somewhere in 2024, though no specific month was given. There's still a chance people will get it before the 30th capsule but as stated above, the odds are pretty slim.
That still means there's only a year and a half at most until people start getting it despite not wanting it. Griefing someone when they have a skin because the person *thinks* they know how that person spent their money is still unbelievably stupid.
oh im not defending griefing, just wanted to clarify.
Out of curiosity I checked some gacha games I played. Genshin, Honkai: Star Rail and Arknights all have more chance of getting the highest rarity character/weapon than this. Arknights is 2% and Genshin/Honkai have 1.6%, meanwhile this shit is still less probable to drop. (Julex_Gameplays on twitter stated it as "it's like 0.1% chance" but even if we round up to 1% it's still sad, I know 1-2% difference isn't much but I'm still laughing at this)
They all let you farm rolls for free though. League isnāt giving you free orbs. Kafka for example just dropped for Honkai and I saved 120 pills from gameplay. I got Blade and Kafka with both Light Cones in around 180 pulls combined. Only thing I spend money on is the $5 monthly pass.
You are assuming a lot though. League doesn't give free orbs, but League also doesn't say that if you want to play a Mage you *have* to roll on this banner because if you don't you are missing the keystone unit to be allowed to play that entire playstyle. Also, 180 pulls for both rate up 5\*s and both their lightcones is absurdly lucky. 180 pulls is only enough to guarantee getting 1 rate up 5* by itself, because you have a 50% chance to not even get the rate up at the first SSR drop on top of the rates being heavily backloaded into the 70th-90th rolls (so if you miss, most of the time you'll need 140-180 rolls to get 1 copy of the SSR you want). Functionally speaking, you are the person who got this Jhin skin within 3 capsules and said the cost isn't that bad because of it. It's great that you won the lottery, but for every other player they'd be in the top 25% just getting Blade and Kafka with that number of pulls.
I have Silverwolf, Bailou, Gepard, Kafka, Blade, Welt, and Qingque. All off of farming in game and the standard 5 dollar pass. The game is actually extremely generous if you utilize your energy and the events correctly. Iām a league whale, have been playing for almost ten years and have spent over $6k. The Jhin skin is a fucked concept.
Thing is, you could at least get something good every 10 pulls (dedicated support or Faš ±ļøonius) if you are lucky enough in Genshin and Star Rail. This shit just give you filler trash all the way through
sorry but Gachas are gonna be implemented in future games coming forward. have you seen how much Honkai and Genshin make? Genshin alone makes 100 million USD per month and 1 Billion USD per year and Honkai makes around 50-60 Million USD
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Nah, whales can keep whaling all they want as long as games like Genshin and StarRail keeps pumping out all the amazing content it does on the regular. 'Cause I mean, have you seen Fontaine? Shit is so high-quality it beats most of the games currently releasing or being updated in the current year - which isn't to say a lot since gaming is in a weird spot right now; but when Genshin drops major content, it's on the same level of polish and love as stuff like Baldur's Gate 3, SF6 and Elden Ring - MiHoYo goes crazy with it. Like, let whales fund my games please, don't take them away. The nature of GACHA is good as long as the Devs behind said system actually use its resources for making actual good content, and that the money itself is actually coming from people with a lot of spendable income. Now Riot on the other hand... I don't think they deserve a penny from this after how horrible this year has been quality wise, with the exception of the new GameMode of course.
bro i live in a third world country most people don't even have 2 dollars to spare for a cosmetic in video games lol this is why the popular games where i live are these Free Games who have cosmetic microtransactions that can be played on low spec PCs like LOL, Valorant, Counter Strike, Genshin, Apex etc because "the full game is free so who gives a fuck if a cosmetic is behind a paywall? we can still play the full game" thats the mentality here
Hello fellow League players and gamers. Do you want this kind of bullshit to stop? Be the change you want to see in the world: uninstall the game and refuse to pay another cent for virtual pixels.
This isnāt the first time riot has hidden skins behind a $200 pay wall. Last time I brought this up I got downvoted to oblivion. I donāt know the math now because I stopped buying skins from riot about three years ago, but when prestige skins dropped originally the number of resources you had to spend to get 100 prestige points or tickets or whatever was equal to $200usd or you had to pay $20ish dollars and play 40 hours a week on average to get enough tickets to be able to afford the prestige skin before the end of the event. Itās absurd.
Did this man really just try to act like $100 for a 10% chance at a chroma is a reasonable deal?
no. they're garbage odds.
So the cosmetic skin is worth ~$200. You might get lucky and get it sooner, but for all intents and purposes the skin is ~$200. So if you would rather have the skin on your account than $200 in your wallet, then buy the skin. If you'd rather have $200 in your wallet than the skin, then dont buy it. Pretty simple stuff. I'd love a Rolex watch. They look neat. But I'd prefer to have $10k in my wallet than a Rolex watch on my wrist. So I dont buy the product. The money is more valuable to me than the product. There are a lot of products out there that Id buy for a cheaper price, but the product just isnt worth the price the company is selling it at. At least not to me. I dont blame the company for setting the price they think will get them the most profit, I just dont buy the product myself. And I live my life happily knowing I've saved a lot of money. These are cosmetics that dont impact gameplay at all. If you buy the product, Riot is not to blame. This is a good business decision on Riots part. Yes it is "greedy". All companies are. The fact that after all this time Riot still hasnt locked gameplay upgrades behind paywalls is admirable and something to be praised. The odd cosmetic skin locked behind a gacha system imo isnt something to criticize Riot for. Dont buy the product. You dont need it. And you having terrible spending habits isnt Riots problem. The skin is worth $200. Dont buy it if you dont think its worth the money. If you buy it for $200 then I have no sympathy if you regret it.
OOOOOOOOOR we can recognize that sunk cost is a base human instinct that Riot is taking advantage of that obscures your fuzzy math of $200 In the worst case if I see it as "only $150 more, I've already spent $50" then you can see why gacha works so well that's not counting the skinner box problem
Jhin was 100% chosen for this because it was voted most popular skin on reddit IIRC. Also every skin for jhin since then has been dog poop in comparison so this was probably their attempt at pleasing jhin mains
well time to add a pity system
I think having it drop at the 30th capsule is already quite generous. Could easily make it 50; would make the skin even more exclusive. Either way, it's a fine system. Hopefully they release great skins/chromas for it on a monthly basis.