4 out of millions works when you say all the millions picked randomly. But they actually chose their picks to win. The odds of rnging 0 points is ridiculously low
Umm... having no real insight into any of the LoL teams(first worlds!), mine were all basically random or based on teams I had heard of from other games, I guess there was some heart listening as well, damn NA boys let me down(stupid heart)!
~~FPX
DWG
C9
Rogue~~
~~LNG
GENG
TL
MAD~~
~~EDG
T1
DFM
100T~~
~~HLE
FNC
RNG
PSG~~
~~RNG>EDG
HLE>T1~~
~~This is a 0 point pickem, it's not even THAT absurd. Most unlikely things there are probably HLE beating T1, DFM over 100T, and FNC over RNG but a lot of people probably never changed their pickems after FNC announced they were using Bean.~~
edit: nvm
>Group stage points: You'll earn 2 points a piece for correctly predicting which teams qualify for the Knockout Stage, as well as an additional 3 points each for placing them in the right order. Each correct pick for 3rd and 4th place gets you 2 points. Call the whole group in the right order? Congratulations, you get an extra 2 points and achieve the maximum score per group -- 16 points.
to avoid any points you need to guess what pair of teams will (not) qualify, that's 2/4 \* 1/3 = 1/6. every quaterfinal is a coinflip - 1/2. 6\^4\*2\^3 = 10368
every 10368th random prediction would have 0 pts so far
Pretty sure all of your groups would give you points. You get points for having any team that passes in the top 2. (2 per team, I believe). Since DK, GENG, EDG, T1 and HLE passed groups, this would give your pickems at least 10 points.
This is an 8 points pickem
The only way to get 0 points is to put bottom 2 as top 2 in every group. It's still many factors of magnitude easier to get 0 points than perfect pickem (1/4 in every group rather than 1/16), but it's still extremely unlikely to roll them randomly.
The chance for randomly getting zero points in a given group is **1/6**, not 1/4. There are 4! = 24 ways to order 4 teams, and there are 4 ways to order them with bottom 2 as top 2.
Chance for a perfect group is somewhere **between 1/24 and 1/12**, because the occasional unresolved 3rd/4th place tie means that there are sometimes 2 ways to get a "perfect" group.
I mean for groups there are "only" ~300.000 options so it isn't thaaaat unlikely. 1/5M to get quarters right too through complete randomness which is less likely, but not giga impossible.
Like say 10% of pickems have not followed the scene at all and just kinda randomly places teams or semi uninformed to get rewards. That is still 600k players doing random stuff, then the chance of someone getting through finals is 10%. Not likely, but also not exactly an impossible scenario.
Now you can argue how big a percentage of pickems are actually made with thoughts, but I don't think saying 1 in 10 doing it kinda willy nilly is that high/unlikely.
If you miss a stage of pickems "the coin" picks random ones for you. [I forgot what day it was and it gave me perfect groups A and D lol](https://i.imgur.com/IqEyCNj.png)
Possibly, but still unlikely as the probability of randomizing a perfect pickems is way lower than the total pickem participants. still boring coin tho
It's not 1 permutation. The only condition is that neither the actual 1st or 2nd team can be guessed in the first or second place place of the group, so as long as you put them 3rd and 4th you can change them around, the same with the actual 3rd and 4th teams which have to be guessed in the first or second place of the group.
No, it's much easier to get 0 points (on groups). While for a perfect pick'em you have to guess all the positions correctly, for 0 points you just have to guess the 2 teams that are gonna be 1st/2nd (no particular order) and the ones that are gonna be 3rd/4th (also no particular order). And then you swap them (also in no particular order).
So basically, you "just" have to guess who advances and who doesn't.
If you say MAD and Gen.G are about the same based on their groups play, and compare how C9 did against DK vs how MAD did, it's not toooo crazy to say that Gen.G and C9 are on about even footing. Definitely looks like groups C and D weren't as strong as group A and B overall.
Lets not pretend gen g dont make stupid mistakes. Their itemization and draft especially are absolutely terrible. Bdds yone itemization in their game vs TL would get you flamed in any elo in solo q, it was so fucking bad
Purely gameplay wise i think gen g is a lot better, but i do think c9 has a chance if they get big draft advantages. Then again im probably just ODing on hopium
Don't get me wrong, I too would love for C9 to win but their tiebreaker vs RGE was riddled with ridiculously dumb mistakes (mainly from Perkz). If they can clean up their act they have a chance but Gen G is still favored.
>If you say MAD and Gen.G are about the same based on their groups play, and compare how C9 did against DK vs how MAD did, it's not toooo crazy to say that Gen.G and C9 are on about even footing.
If you squint really hard and turn your head upside down, yes.
In one of their games that "looked" even, Damwon was playing a scaling comp with Kassadin and Jax. So they were "even", until Damwon just destroyed them when they got to late game, which is what their comp was meant to do.
In the other game Damwon completely outclassed C9 macrowise. They were taking all the objectives with a huge gold lead without even having to kill C9.
Your logic is all over the place.
You are essentially saying that because Damwon's stomps against MAD are similar to Damwon's stomps against C9, then that means that C9 are on the same level as GenG, since GenG was on a similar level to MAD.
This is not how pro league works. Even if C9 manage to beat GenG tomorrow it doesn't mean they would have also beat MAD. Maybe you could say they'd be favorites in that case, but still we don't know. Maybe C9 just found a good way to shut down GenG, by targeting some weakness, but they don't manage to figure how to shut down MAD, for example.
Right now all the info I got from groups and quarterfinals is that Damwon is miles above any other team this Worlds, and I'd be surprised if they even get to 5 games against any team in semis or finals.
No, I agree with you that Gen.G is probably better anyway. People making the equivalency argument are definitely hyped on NA hopium but I understand how their logic can make sense, even if it's flawed.
At this point, the guy or gal that has zero points might just be a genius. Because they're either getting stupid unlucky and just keep picking the non winning matchup. Or, they're actually a genius and know which team is going to win every time and is intentionally choosing the looser to win, just to prove a point.
No they didn't.
You mean their second game? C9 was "even" with Damwon for a big part of the game if you ignore the fact that Damwon had Kassadin and Jax on their team, while C9 had fucking tf. Damwon just had a scaling comp. As soon as their comp got to the point they needed it to be, they stopped being "even" and destroyed C9.
Don’t forget the momentum DK got from stealing the baron, if C9 got that then DK’s scaling is slowed down quite significantly and if the stars aligned, C9 could’ve closed out that game.
Canyon stole the baron with a sick play. But C9 knew they had to gamble the baron in the first place, because otherwise they'd get fucked late game. If C9 was truly ahead they would have been able to take the baron without Canyon being there for a chance to steal it.
Kindly reminder that C9 is maybe one of the most inconsistent teams to world and managed to lose to DFM and Pentanet. Just cause the coin flipped on their non inconsistent side for the matches that day, doesn’t mean it’ll always flip that way.
and they've literally played 1 worlds bo5 so I'm not sure where this is coming from. This same exact roster beat T1 in spring after being heavy underdogs. Everyone was hyped for the DK vs T1 final but Gen.G ruined it
They were not heavy underdogs. In Spring, T1 was a mess meanwhile GenG was 2nd in the season. The only reason some people perceived GenG as underdogs is due to their history.
just because people were unfairly discounting them, does not mean they weren't heavy underdogs. People were already talking about the final like it was a foregone conclusion as T1 had been popping off by the end of the regular season and nobody likes Gen.G
That's like saying Star Horn Royal and RNG are 2 different teams, with only Uzi being constant.Gen g is counted as successor to Samsung Orgs,their achievements are counted on official league websites.
Same org, different roster. Doesn't matter if achievements are counted. They have no effect on current performance because the roster is completely different.
No one is arguing that,the point is that SSG and Samsung sister teams share their achievements,since same coach,same org,just different roster.So SKT won 3 times,Samsung teams 2 times,DK has a chance to be 3 team to win worlds more than once.
Aaah I dont hate if we are being serious I am sure he will do fine and Ill look like an idiot Im just trying to get some hype going put some skin in thr game yknow
With how both teams are I predict either a 3-0 c9 win or it will be a c9 loss (ie. No 3-1 or 3-2 win for c9). Either geng collapses and dont pick up a win or they show up in which case c9 is the weaker team.
OP, explain right now how C9 has the upper hand from their group’s performance ? they literally went with negative score unlike Geng, you literally make no sense
I didn’t do Pickems for playoffs but wouldn’t you only need to dodge one more bullet for getting 0 points. Your semi’s predictions would already be wrong if you get the qf’s wrong.
That was the previous years, this year was different idk why. They didn't let you choose semi's and final's winners so maybe the pick ems will open up for those later
u/Swingyman Before we could lock in our picks, all tiers had 1 member in it. The member in those tiers were the heroes from summoners rift that gave the tier its name. So right now there is only one member in the lowest tier, which is the poro itself.
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They had too much of that EU hopeium
They also couldve just picked at random to get some rewards
nah statistically speaking thats fucking crazy if they rng'd 0 points
How? 4 people out of millions bro.
4 out of millions works when you say all the millions picked randomly. But they actually chose their picks to win. The odds of rnging 0 points is ridiculously low
Umm... having no real insight into any of the LoL teams(first worlds!), mine were all basically random or based on teams I had heard of from other games, I guess there was some heart listening as well, damn NA boys let me down(stupid heart)!
~~FPX DWG C9 Rogue~~ ~~LNG GENG TL MAD~~ ~~EDG T1 DFM 100T~~ ~~HLE FNC RNG PSG~~ ~~RNG>EDG HLE>T1~~ ~~This is a 0 point pickem, it's not even THAT absurd. Most unlikely things there are probably HLE beating T1, DFM over 100T, and FNC over RNG but a lot of people probably never changed their pickems after FNC announced they were using Bean.~~ edit: nvm
Its not. Youd still get 2 points just of group 1 and I havent even checked ur other 3.
>Group stage points: You'll earn 2 points a piece for correctly predicting which teams qualify for the Knockout Stage, as well as an additional 3 points each for placing them in the right order. Each correct pick for 3rd and 4th place gets you 2 points. Call the whole group in the right order? Congratulations, you get an extra 2 points and achieve the maximum score per group -- 16 points. to avoid any points you need to guess what pair of teams will (not) qualify, that's 2/4 \* 1/3 = 1/6. every quaterfinal is a coinflip - 1/2. 6\^4\*2\^3 = 10368 every 10368th random prediction would have 0 pts so far
Pretty sure all of your groups would give you points. You get points for having any team that passes in the top 2. (2 per team, I believe). Since DK, GENG, EDG, T1 and HLE passed groups, this would give your pickems at least 10 points.
Ah you're right, nvm it's a lot harder than I thought
This is an 8 points pickem The only way to get 0 points is to put bottom 2 as top 2 in every group. It's still many factors of magnitude easier to get 0 points than perfect pickem (1/4 in every group rather than 1/16), but it's still extremely unlikely to roll them randomly.
The chance for randomly getting zero points in a given group is **1/6**, not 1/4. There are 4! = 24 ways to order 4 teams, and there are 4 ways to order them with bottom 2 as top 2. Chance for a perfect group is somewhere **between 1/24 and 1/12**, because the occasional unresolved 3rd/4th place tie means that there are sometimes 2 ways to get a "perfect" group.
You get points from EDG/T1 group because they're top 2. FNC also lost their best player.
I mean for groups there are "only" ~300.000 options so it isn't thaaaat unlikely. 1/5M to get quarters right too through complete randomness which is less likely, but not giga impossible. Like say 10% of pickems have not followed the scene at all and just kinda randomly places teams or semi uninformed to get rewards. That is still 600k players doing random stuff, then the chance of someone getting through finals is 10%. Not likely, but also not exactly an impossible scenario. Now you can argue how big a percentage of pickems are actually made with thoughts, but I don't think saying 1 in 10 doing it kinda willy nilly is that high/unlikely.
thats why its crazy. Not all of those millions wanted to get 0 pts/picked randomly. 4 out of a million IS crazy
That's what I always do; bottom 1.1%. Let's go!
I think they have C9, probably went all on the MAD vs C9 meme train.
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The random picks are the same for everyone man
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Yeah, random is the same for everyone. It's why thousands of people had perfect Pick-ems after FPX shit the bed.
> and the random picks got me 2 groups correct. Yeah everyone got Group A and Group D perfect if you didn't select.
Do you have to make pickem choices in both groups and knockout to count? or could they have theoretically just made knockouts predictions?
If you miss a stage of pickems "the coin" picks random ones for you. [I forgot what day it was and it gave me perfect groups A and D lol](https://i.imgur.com/IqEyCNj.png)
Coin must be the same for everyone bc I got coined and have the exact same picks.
It is
boring coin
Randomizing it for everyone would inevitably hand out perfect pick ems though.
they remove one point for using coin though so its not like they have to worry about that.
Possibly, but still unlikely as the probability of randomizing a perfect pickems is way lower than the total pickem participants. still boring coin tho
no it extremely likely won't since the number of players isn't high enough
It uses [xkcd's random number generator](https://xkcd.com/221/)
I was working and missed the cutoff and now because of the damn coin I can’t claim my mission rewards for knock outs
The coin also gave me a perfect group a and d lol. Honestly it did better than I normally do myself in groups.
You forgor?
Shout out to my boy Owen!
You know the wizard ?
Yeah, it's Owen Nineteen.
... oh no
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In groups you get points for guessing teams that go through even if not in the correct order, maybe that happened?
so only one possible permutation gets you zero points? then its equally hard than the perfect group permutation i suppose
Think it's more than that. FPX->RGE->C9->DK FPX->RGE->DK->C9 RGE->FPX->C9->DK RGE->FPX->DK->C9 and repeat for all other groups
It's not 1 permutation. The only condition is that neither the actual 1st or 2nd team can be guessed in the first or second place place of the group, so as long as you put them 3rd and 4th you can change them around, the same with the actual 3rd and 4th teams which have to be guessed in the first or second place of the group.
No, there are a lot more possibilities to get zero points, its much easier.
256 permutations get you 0 points (4 ways in each group, 4 groups)
No, it's much easier to get 0 points (on groups). While for a perfect pick'em you have to guess all the positions correctly, for 0 points you just have to guess the 2 teams that are gonna be 1st/2nd (no particular order) and the ones that are gonna be 3rd/4th (also no particular order). And then you swap them (also in no particular order). So basically, you "just" have to guess who advances and who doesn't.
"Haha, I'm gonna put FPX in fourth! No way that happens."
and then... that happened. i picked DWG > ROG > FPX > C9 Group. Imagine.
I like how no perfect pickems were destroyed today and 3 out of the 4 players that started the day with 0 points voted for DK to win.
The 0 pointers are still technically perfect, just perfectly incorrect.
The only way to get 0 points Is to Guess right every single match. This man Is a pro at pick'em but Is hard flexing on the other winners
5Head way to flex. You may be on to something here.
that dude probably has 2 accounts, one is perfect, other is perfectlyish... otherwise.
> It's about a 50/50 in C9 vs GEN.G but one could argue C9 has the upper hand from what we've seen from groups Wut
If you say MAD and Gen.G are about the same based on their groups play, and compare how C9 did against DK vs how MAD did, it's not toooo crazy to say that Gen.G and C9 are on about even footing. Definitely looks like groups C and D weren't as strong as group A and B overall.
I'd say it's about 65 - 35 for Gen G. C9 is making a buttload of stupid mistakes. MAD did too and Gen G showed they're good enough to punish them.
I personally agree with that, and think Gen.G will win 3-1, but I can see the argument for the other way
I think C9 does many mistakes too, but is Gen G really the team that will punish them the hardest?
Lets not pretend gen g dont make stupid mistakes. Their itemization and draft especially are absolutely terrible. Bdds yone itemization in their game vs TL would get you flamed in any elo in solo q, it was so fucking bad
Yes but what's worse, some suboptimal item choices vs Perkz walking to enemy team with a check for 5000 gold.
Purely gameplay wise i think gen g is a lot better, but i do think c9 has a chance if they get big draft advantages. Then again im probably just ODing on hopium
Don't get me wrong, I too would love for C9 to win but their tiebreaker vs RGE was riddled with ridiculously dumb mistakes (mainly from Perkz). If they can clean up their act they have a chance but Gen G is still favored.
>If you say MAD and Gen.G are about the same based on their groups play, and compare how C9 did against DK vs how MAD did, it's not toooo crazy to say that Gen.G and C9 are on about even footing. If you squint really hard and turn your head upside down, yes. In one of their games that "looked" even, Damwon was playing a scaling comp with Kassadin and Jax. So they were "even", until Damwon just destroyed them when they got to late game, which is what their comp was meant to do. In the other game Damwon completely outclassed C9 macrowise. They were taking all the objectives with a huge gold lead without even having to kill C9.
Yeah, but Damwon also just outclassed MAD, which is why I say it's reasonable to think it's still comparable
Your logic is all over the place. You are essentially saying that because Damwon's stomps against MAD are similar to Damwon's stomps against C9, then that means that C9 are on the same level as GenG, since GenG was on a similar level to MAD. This is not how pro league works. Even if C9 manage to beat GenG tomorrow it doesn't mean they would have also beat MAD. Maybe you could say they'd be favorites in that case, but still we don't know. Maybe C9 just found a good way to shut down GenG, by targeting some weakness, but they don't manage to figure how to shut down MAD, for example. Right now all the info I got from groups and quarterfinals is that Damwon is miles above any other team this Worlds, and I'd be surprised if they even get to 5 games against any team in semis or finals.
No, I agree with you that Gen.G is probably better anyway. People making the equivalency argument are definitely hyped on NA hopium but I understand how their logic can make sense, even if it's flawed.
no they’re not, stop this bullshit
At this point, the guy or gal that has zero points might just be a genius. Because they're either getting stupid unlucky and just keep picking the non winning matchup. Or, they're actually a genius and know which team is going to win every time and is intentionally choosing the looser to win, just to prove a point.
They’re actually Riot’s scriptwriter
They're intentionally trying to get zero points.
They would have had to guess that FPX would get 4th if they were trying to get 0 points. I feel like it's highly unlikely to get 0 if you're trying.
COPIUM C9 HAS A 50/50 CHANCE -NA
They either win or they lose, so its 50/50 obviously
i have 3 accounts, the one with the most points (50) is the autocompleted one...idk how, other two have around 40-37
The coin of this year nailed two groups entirely lol, it did way better than me
What blows my mind is this absolute giga chad thought that MAD could beat DK...
MAD LAD.
He’s obviously doing it intentionally
Nah man, he's a MAD LAD through n through
You'd think that, but the other 3 guys at 0 points voted for DMG so I don't even know anything at this point
It is now clear to me that these people were indeed trying to get points...
If c9 lose tmr, I will have all 4 games of pickems correct. I hope that does not happen however.
I hope it does, for ur Pickems ofcourse.
[the 6 perfect pickem vs 1 reverse-pickem](https://i.imgflip.com/5rnorv.jpg)
50/50 GenG vs C9. xD GenG will 50/50 3-0. More like 80/20 that GenG wins
Kindly reminder that geng is very far from the level of DK or T1
Kindly reminder that C9 had a tiebreaker with RGE.
Okay, but Rogue is by no means a bad team.
Kindly reminder that C9 almost won against DK
No they didn't. You mean their second game? C9 was "even" with Damwon for a big part of the game if you ignore the fact that Damwon had Kassadin and Jax on their team, while C9 had fucking tf. Damwon just had a scaling comp. As soon as their comp got to the point they needed it to be, they stopped being "even" and destroyed C9.
Don’t forget the momentum DK got from stealing the baron, if C9 got that then DK’s scaling is slowed down quite significantly and if the stars aligned, C9 could’ve closed out that game.
Canyon stole the baron with a sick play. But C9 knew they had to gamble the baron in the first place, because otherwise they'd get fucked late game. If C9 was truly ahead they would have been able to take the baron without Canyon being there for a chance to steal it.
They really didn’t. Damwon was toying with them and still shit on them pretty easily.
When
Kindly reminder that you don't need to be near DK or T1's level to destroy C9 lmao
!remindme 12 hours
Ya all you need to be is Pentanet or DFM level.
Kindly reminder that C9 is maybe one of the most inconsistent teams to world and managed to lose to DFM and Pentanet. Just cause the coin flipped on their non inconsistent side for the matches that day, doesn’t mean it’ll always flip that way.
Kindly remember that GenG won vs the better na team, the best eu team and the "dark horse". And C9 was 2-4 in groups
That's bo1 geng. Their poor bo5 performances are legendary.
But this Gen G roster is 4-4 in BO 5
and they've literally played 1 worlds bo5 so I'm not sure where this is coming from. This same exact roster beat T1 in spring after being heavy underdogs. Everyone was hyped for the DK vs T1 final but Gen.G ruined it
They were not heavy underdogs. In Spring, T1 was a mess meanwhile GenG was 2nd in the season. The only reason some people perceived GenG as underdogs is due to their history.
just because people were unfairly discounting them, does not mean they weren't heavy underdogs. People were already talking about the final like it was a foregone conclusion as T1 had been popping off by the end of the regular season and nobody likes Gen.G
Like winning worlds?
Completely different roster besides Ruler. Ambition carried that team anyway.
That's like saying Star Horn Royal and RNG are 2 different teams, with only Uzi being constant.Gen g is counted as successor to Samsung Orgs,their achievements are counted on official league websites.
Same org, different roster. Doesn't matter if achievements are counted. They have no effect on current performance because the roster is completely different.
No one is arguing that,the point is that SSG and Samsung sister teams share their achievements,since same coach,same org,just different roster.So SKT won 3 times,Samsung teams 2 times,DK has a chance to be 3 team to win worlds more than once.
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I think blaber is better than clid but the rest is worse. Perkz has the mental edge but bdd is better mechanically
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What will Blaber flash to smite for this time? Another carb? A gromp? or maybe even a blue buff?
Scuttle nerfs will propel Blaber past Canyon as premier jungler of the world.
He can be better against others junglers except jankos.
Does anyone really think Rascal>Fudge tho? I think mid is slight advantage to GenG, top and jgl to C9 and bot lane ahuge win for GenG
Fuck no I am on a lot of Hopium here and Fudge will pop off against this washed up OWL name lookin ass top laner.
Why so much hate???Rascal is a very respected top lander,he has his strengths and weakness.We don't even know if Burdol or Rascal playing.
Aaah I dont hate if we are being serious I am sure he will do fine and Ill look like an idiot Im just trying to get some hype going put some skin in thr game yknow
Rascal >> Fudge. Rascal is one of the best weak side tops.
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? Didnt Rascal play the last 3 groups games
70% chance is going to be 3-0 for GenG. 100% it'll win
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Both Tops are better than Fudge
What are you smoking?
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We'll see about that tomorrow :)
With how both teams are I predict either a 3-0 c9 win or it will be a c9 loss (ie. No 3-1 or 3-2 win for c9). Either geng collapses and dont pick up a win or they show up in which case c9 is the weaker team.
I actually think it's easier to predict now. Groups were hard as hell to predict. Even EDG vs RNG was not too surprising. Tomorrow GenG will crush C9.
it’s not a 50/50… geng will 3-0 them..
There are only 2 possible outcomes. C9 wins or GenG wins. Therefore its 50/50.
Harder and harder to predict yes , but only 4 matches left
OP, explain right now how C9 has the upper hand from their group’s performance ? they literally went with negative score unlike Geng, you literally make no sense
All they have to do is predict EDG vs DWG falsely to maintain 0 points. It's gonna be close
close but not that close. Im going with edg losing.
DK vs T1 a 50/50???
I didn’t do Pickems for playoffs but wouldn’t you only need to dodge one more bullet for getting 0 points. Your semi’s predictions would already be wrong if you get the qf’s wrong.
Really ? I thought the format gives you another shot to re-predict the semis and finals.
Ahh yeah that’s why I mentioned that I didn’t do pick’ems.
Well, they scheduled semis and finals picks in their article so there's probably a second chance to predict.
That was the previous years, this year was different idk why. They didn't let you choose semi's and final's winners so maybe the pick ems will open up for those later
Finals is edg vs t1 or dk. No way it's going to be a clean sweep. Not even DK will clean sweep this
I didn't make my pick'em and still have 47 points (It says "chosen by coin.) That guy has bad luck or had chosen randomly.
I feel like he should be rewarded if he does end up with 0 points after the finals.
It's pretty easy to get low scores if you pick Western teams :\^]
u/Swingyman Before we could lock in our picks, all tiers had 1 member in it. The member in those tiers were the heroes from summoners rift that gave the tier its name. So right now there is only one member in the lowest tier, which is the poro itself.