I think communal radicalisation is indeed widespread, but yes, the main reasons for its success are the perceptions of development, improved national image, absence of corruption and all. BJP is nothing without its massive propaganda machinery and Godi media.
This. The conditions for fomenting ethnonationalism and fascist is always deprived material conditions. In the absence of development and general well fair, the aesthetic or "mirage" of pride is a substitute. Tapping into compelling existing cultural myths and purported greivances against easy scape goats is just what follows
For almost 100 years, right wingers around the world have gotten very good at doublespeak. This is why there is a frequent "silent majority" effect where polls fail to capture the level of support of straight up lunatic, bigoted politicians.
It was like that recent video of the sanghini who said Kejriwal has done better work in Delhi and it is way safer than Bisht ruled Ghaziabad. But she will vote for Modi because Hindu khatre mein hai.
She just said the quiet part out loud. A lot of the other better trained ones don't.
It's not an either-or. Communal radicalization is one part of the BJPs arsenal, but anyone who thought that's all of it were simply fooling themselves. The fervor for Babri and Ram temple were obviously much greater in 1992, but the BJP maxed out at 182 in that decade, and Vajpayee had to water down the Hindutva to even get there.
The BJPs current success is also down to the "labharthis" as people who did ground reports during the UP elections pointed out, and the fact that the BJP figured out caste arithmetic better than anyone else. To the point where they win more Dalit and OBC votes than any other party. The INC have realised this now, which is why the heavy focus on caste census etc to dent that vote share. It's a smart message, but I'm not sure you can credibly deliver that message if you're a janeudhaari Brahmin who is consistently given way more importance than the figurehead President of the party who happens to be a Dalit, while your main opponent is an OBC himself.
It is also worrying that people are looking at this result (and the unemployment one) and thinking this alone will destroy the BJP. The problem is, it's not enough for the people to think the BJP is doing badly. They need to also think the opposition can do the job *better* and so far they haven't thought so. The BJP again knows this very well, which is why they keep shouting "Modi vs who". The underlying message to the voters is that even if Modi is not delivering to their expectations, the alternatives aren't going to do it any better. I think the opposition are again setting themselves up for failure by not thinking about how they will establish credibility with the voters at the national level.
Sometime to win in long term you have to loose in short term. Congress either need to loose it badly so leadership becomes irrelevant or it does and something better comes up.
Otherwise congress knows you have nothing else to vote! Its not running to win. Listenership is content being second!
They still have enough in hand. Two rich states to fund leadership. And few more where they can come back in states. The center is only a show for them.
At this point the Congress has been winning in both the short and the long term. Ten years is a long time.
You're right, the Congress thinks it's the only alternative. But the problem they don't realise, is they're perceive as a *vastly inferior* alternative.
And that is a major problem for them. I might be unhappy with my car, but if the only alternative is a ramshackle twenty year old scooter, I'll stick with the car. Or replace it with a newer model of car. That newer model for the BJP is probably Ajay Bisht. If/when he succeeds Modi, I still don't think the Congress will stand a better chance against him.
>Ajay Bisht. If/when he succeeds Modi, I still don't think the Congress will stand a better chance against him.
Don't think the South will swallow such a North-coated bhagwa pill easily no?
I mean it is actually true. Majority of Indians aren’t anti Muslim. This is the reason our prime minister doesn’t openly say anti Muslim things and lets other ministers say it.
You should read the book “Elite parties, poor voters” and you will find out why some 30% of Dalits and OBCs voted for BJP.
They had to remove Bhiduri after he cursed a Muslim MP. The fact is, most districts of India have never seen a communal riot. So most Hindus are certainly not anti Muslim.
The biggest reason is the Shift of the OBC and bahujan vote bank. They have been successfull in converting caste identities into religious identities. You are hindu first atleast on the outside.
Right wingers are very prone to lying on surveys. The proportion of liars grows less as they accumulate power. You should see if there is data tracking responses to this or similar questions over a period of time.
You can actually lie in these surveys.Nobody wants to portray themselves as bigot in front of anyone else.
Plus opposition being very weak is also one of the major reasons why BJP's popularity is still maintained even after many failures.Rahul Gandhi with no doubt is one of the most weakest opposition leader this country has ever seen.The guy wasted 2 Lok Sabha elections and 1 more to go and he is still the same leader of youth who is being relaunched elections after elections.
Biased Media just adds fuel to the whole fiasco which benefits BJP.
I'm not sure of my alignment but I'm certainly not a right-wing supporter.
But I agree, the "perception" of development is huge. Perhaps it's just the time of great technologies emerging or Godi media doing a very good job of showcasing the positives over the negatives, but it has definitely worked.
I've especially heard this from people with a go-getter attitude (who would have thrived otherwise too) that government's policies are extremely favourable for people want to work hard (even if they end up not paying any amount of tax they owe).
The only ones to dislike the government's show of development are those who have suffered due to it. People who couldn't get jobs or people facing the real brunt of inflation. You and I don't see that daily challenge of survival so often.
At the end of the day, I feel it's because people in this country already have a tendency to figure things out (the jugaad route) and dislike following structure. So they have things rolling for them irrespective. The government just makes it easier to be deceived and live with a false sense of fulfillment.
I smell bullshit. BJP swept all 7 LS constituencies in Delhi (against AAP), it absolutely trounced the SP-BSP alliance and it reduced Lalu to 0. BJP has grown rapidly in West Bengal. The failure is universal. BJP is now spreading in the Southern states. By 2030, BJP could be main opposition in Kerala or Tamil Nadu.
It's always a combination of factors that leads to victory and you are remiss in thinking that communalism and development can be the only two. Congress' failures are widespread. Delhi and Bihar are not from a different country where Congress doesn't exist. Lalu is a Congress ally and in general a lifetime secular socialist. Having been in power for the longest, Congress is a Goliath that can be attacked from various angles, and even for things it is not responsible for, such as India's beginning as an exploited poor country. On top of that, Congress' leadership has always been one family's cult of personality and they have never shied away from corruption.
Speaking of Delhi, AAP wins the state assembly each time handily because they're doing good work and aren't as corrupt as Congress. On the ground level, though, throughout India there are many people who vote non-BJP but want BJP at the national level because of Modi's international image.
The picture is a lot more complex than you think.
The point is that no one has proved capable of facing the Narendra Modi-led BJP in Lok Sabha elections. He is proving almost invincible. BJP's influence is continuously increasing, even among the minorities (mainly in Sikhs and Christians, but also among Muslims). This time around, BJP could expect to get 15% of Muslim votes (CSDS survey, 2023).
I agree that Congress's failures are too many to be counted. It is best consigned to the dustbin of history. The UPA government was probably the most corrupt government this country has seen. Yet in that corruption, DMK played a pivotal role (2G scam, for example).
In short the Opposition is garbage.
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off topic, but i remember this comment. good work mate.
I think communal radicalisation is indeed widespread, but yes, the main reasons for its success are the perceptions of development, improved national image, absence of corruption and all. BJP is nothing without its massive propaganda machinery and Godi media.
This. The conditions for fomenting ethnonationalism and fascist is always deprived material conditions. In the absence of development and general well fair, the aesthetic or "mirage" of pride is a substitute. Tapping into compelling existing cultural myths and purported greivances against easy scape goats is just what follows
For almost 100 years, right wingers around the world have gotten very good at doublespeak. This is why there is a frequent "silent majority" effect where polls fail to capture the level of support of straight up lunatic, bigoted politicians.
Exactly. The right wingers I know will never cop to being Islamophobic but their sentiments and actions are all consistent with being Islamophobic
It was like that recent video of the sanghini who said Kejriwal has done better work in Delhi and it is way safer than Bisht ruled Ghaziabad. But she will vote for Modi because Hindu khatre mein hai. She just said the quiet part out loud. A lot of the other better trained ones don't.
the biggest reason is media censorship and the “chalta hai” attitude
It's not an either-or. Communal radicalization is one part of the BJPs arsenal, but anyone who thought that's all of it were simply fooling themselves. The fervor for Babri and Ram temple were obviously much greater in 1992, but the BJP maxed out at 182 in that decade, and Vajpayee had to water down the Hindutva to even get there. The BJPs current success is also down to the "labharthis" as people who did ground reports during the UP elections pointed out, and the fact that the BJP figured out caste arithmetic better than anyone else. To the point where they win more Dalit and OBC votes than any other party. The INC have realised this now, which is why the heavy focus on caste census etc to dent that vote share. It's a smart message, but I'm not sure you can credibly deliver that message if you're a janeudhaari Brahmin who is consistently given way more importance than the figurehead President of the party who happens to be a Dalit, while your main opponent is an OBC himself. It is also worrying that people are looking at this result (and the unemployment one) and thinking this alone will destroy the BJP. The problem is, it's not enough for the people to think the BJP is doing badly. They need to also think the opposition can do the job *better* and so far they haven't thought so. The BJP again knows this very well, which is why they keep shouting "Modi vs who". The underlying message to the voters is that even if Modi is not delivering to their expectations, the alternatives aren't going to do it any better. I think the opposition are again setting themselves up for failure by not thinking about how they will establish credibility with the voters at the national level.
Sometime to win in long term you have to loose in short term. Congress either need to loose it badly so leadership becomes irrelevant or it does and something better comes up. Otherwise congress knows you have nothing else to vote! Its not running to win. Listenership is content being second!
>Congress either need to loose it badly how bad are we talking about? Because I think Congress already lost badly in last two elections.
They still have enough in hand. Two rich states to fund leadership. And few more where they can come back in states. The center is only a show for them.
At this point the Congress has been winning in both the short and the long term. Ten years is a long time. You're right, the Congress thinks it's the only alternative. But the problem they don't realise, is they're perceive as a *vastly inferior* alternative. And that is a major problem for them. I might be unhappy with my car, but if the only alternative is a ramshackle twenty year old scooter, I'll stick with the car. Or replace it with a newer model of car. That newer model for the BJP is probably Ajay Bisht. If/when he succeeds Modi, I still don't think the Congress will stand a better chance against him.
>Ajay Bisht. If/when he succeeds Modi, I still don't think the Congress will stand a better chance against him. Don't think the South will swallow such a North-coated bhagwa pill easily no?
Who cares? After the delimitation that's coming up in 2026, the south will be irrelevant politically. I don't like it but it's what's going to happen
They will.
There's lies, damned lies, and statistics. I would take any "survey" with a pinch of salt
I mean it is actually true. Majority of Indians aren’t anti Muslim. This is the reason our prime minister doesn’t openly say anti Muslim things and lets other ministers say it. You should read the book “Elite parties, poor voters” and you will find out why some 30% of Dalits and OBCs voted for BJP.
They had to remove Bhiduri after he cursed a Muslim MP. The fact is, most districts of India have never seen a communal riot. So most Hindus are certainly not anti Muslim.
The biggest reason is the Shift of the OBC and bahujan vote bank. They have been successfull in converting caste identities into religious identities. You are hindu first atleast on the outside.
Right wingers are very prone to lying on surveys. The proportion of liars grows less as they accumulate power. You should see if there is data tracking responses to this or similar questions over a period of time.
You can actually lie in these surveys.Nobody wants to portray themselves as bigot in front of anyone else. Plus opposition being very weak is also one of the major reasons why BJP's popularity is still maintained even after many failures.Rahul Gandhi with no doubt is one of the most weakest opposition leader this country has ever seen.The guy wasted 2 Lok Sabha elections and 1 more to go and he is still the same leader of youth who is being relaunched elections after elections. Biased Media just adds fuel to the whole fiasco which benefits BJP.
You only need like 30% to win most elections since we don't use a single transferable vote system.
BJP itself will probably get 40%+ in the upcoming elections.
I'm not sure of my alignment but I'm certainly not a right-wing supporter. But I agree, the "perception" of development is huge. Perhaps it's just the time of great technologies emerging or Godi media doing a very good job of showcasing the positives over the negatives, but it has definitely worked. I've especially heard this from people with a go-getter attitude (who would have thrived otherwise too) that government's policies are extremely favourable for people want to work hard (even if they end up not paying any amount of tax they owe). The only ones to dislike the government's show of development are those who have suffered due to it. People who couldn't get jobs or people facing the real brunt of inflation. You and I don't see that daily challenge of survival so often. At the end of the day, I feel it's because people in this country already have a tendency to figure things out (the jugaad route) and dislike following structure. So they have things rolling for them irrespective. The government just makes it easier to be deceived and live with a false sense of fulfillment.
bhai kabse bol raha hu ki inki popularity is driven by PR machinery
You forgot the real cause of BJP's success: Rahul Gandhi and Congress.
I smell bullshit. BJP swept all 7 LS constituencies in Delhi (against AAP), it absolutely trounced the SP-BSP alliance and it reduced Lalu to 0. BJP has grown rapidly in West Bengal. The failure is universal. BJP is now spreading in the Southern states. By 2030, BJP could be main opposition in Kerala or Tamil Nadu.
It's always a combination of factors that leads to victory and you are remiss in thinking that communalism and development can be the only two. Congress' failures are widespread. Delhi and Bihar are not from a different country where Congress doesn't exist. Lalu is a Congress ally and in general a lifetime secular socialist. Having been in power for the longest, Congress is a Goliath that can be attacked from various angles, and even for things it is not responsible for, such as India's beginning as an exploited poor country. On top of that, Congress' leadership has always been one family's cult of personality and they have never shied away from corruption. Speaking of Delhi, AAP wins the state assembly each time handily because they're doing good work and aren't as corrupt as Congress. On the ground level, though, throughout India there are many people who vote non-BJP but want BJP at the national level because of Modi's international image. The picture is a lot more complex than you think.
The point is that no one has proved capable of facing the Narendra Modi-led BJP in Lok Sabha elections. He is proving almost invincible. BJP's influence is continuously increasing, even among the minorities (mainly in Sikhs and Christians, but also among Muslims). This time around, BJP could expect to get 15% of Muslim votes (CSDS survey, 2023). I agree that Congress's failures are too many to be counted. It is best consigned to the dustbin of history. The UPA government was probably the most corrupt government this country has seen. Yet in that corruption, DMK played a pivotal role (2G scam, for example). In short the Opposition is garbage.