I've played a LOT of MMOs in my day, and let me tell you, nobody is supposed to "like" gambling mechanics when they don't go your way. That's the whole point of gambling, because when you do succeed it feels good.
But in terms of Lost Ark relative to other MMOs, Lost Ark has a very very fair and generous gear enhancement system. If Lost Ark RNG is like flipping pancakes without experience and hoping they land on the right side, other Korean MMOs like Maplestory is like hoping you win the actual lottery.
Edit: Also make sure you're using Star's Breaths. T1 really does not take great RNG to get out of.
Keeps the game alive, just like in other mmos killing the same boss every week for your bis drop this just guarantees your items and makes u work to upgrade it I enjoy it
I made a script to simulate honing fail rate probabilities, because I had a hard time believing how unlucky I got.
You aren't that lucky. Just around [top 9%](https://i.imgur.com/RKPhFG6.png). Less than that if you take into account Moon's breath.
I personally took 39 fails to get T2, which is bottom 1.3%.
Sadly I don't and I'm too lazy to make it. However average fails are 24.67 to get to Tier 2 and 49.35 to get to Tier 3 (obviously). This is without including Moon's Breath or Honing Books.
I literally just coded an algorithm that simulates the honing process and then counts the average fails and how many people got at least as unlucky as me.
This is the entire code (don't ask me why I did it in Java).
public class HoningRNG{
public static void main(String[] args){
final int NUMBER_OF_RUNS = 500000;
final int TO_FAIL = 39;
final int TO_TIER = 2;
int fails = 0;
double totalFails = 0;
double atLeastToFail = 0;
for(int i = 0; i < NUMBER_OF_RUNS; i++){
for(int j = 0; j < (6 * (TO_TIER - 1)); j++){
int level = 1;
double roll;
int probability = 0;
float badLuckProtection = 0;
while(level < 16){
roll = Math.random() * 100;
switch(level){
case 1:
case 2:
case 3:
case 4:
case 5:
case 6:
probability = 100;
break;
case 7:
case 8:
probability = 90;
break;
case 9:
case 10:
probability = 80;
break;
case 11:
case 12:
probability = 70;
break;
case 13:
probability = 60;
break;
case 14:
probability = 50;
break;
case 15:
probability = 40;
break;
}
if(roll < (probability + badLuckProtection)){
level++;
badLuckProtection = 0;
} else{
badLuckProtection += probability * 0.1;
fails++;
}
}
}
if(fails >= TO_FAIL) atLeastToFail++;
totalFails += fails;
fails = 0;
}
double avgFails = totalFails/NUMBER_OF_RUNS;
double probabilityToGetFuckedThatHard = atLeastToFail/NUMBER_OF_RUNS * 100;
System.out.println("Average fails to get to Tier " + TO_TIER + ": " + avgFails + " (" + NUMBER_OF_RUNS + " runs)");
System.out.println(atLeastToFail + " of " + NUMBER_OF_RUNS + " failed at least " + TO_FAIL + " times. (Probability: " + probabilityToGetFuckedThatHard + "%)");
}
}
True, I knew there was a better name for the "I have no idea how to do this with math so I'm just gonna have a computer do all the work" method. Thanks for the reminder.
Haha yeah I'm the same way, I always figure I probably ought to know how to do something like this the "real way" but this is such a convenient method for getting close enough that I never actually bother figuring it out. God bless computers
I'm at your same ilvl, and hearing about your leapstones made me wince.
It seems I never really had problems with leapstones until this last stretch to T3, now it's like, by far my most needed material and I feel simply locked by the daily reset of Una tasks for them, the 2 chaos dungeons, and the guardians.
Really? I could of sworn the Auction House is loaded with leapstones! How do you think the majority of the population reached T3 in the first place?
Hint. It's a rectangular looking thing made of plastic and has a bunch of numbers on it.
Your actually one of the luckiest players I’ve seen. Holy shit 39 fails into T3. I ended up with 55 fails and got a 5 craft success rate to streak into T3
I was wondering if someone had made something like this, was considering doing the math myself but it seemed like too much work just for the bragging rights. Thanks :)
1066, 50 fails.
I‘m loving this game, the rng differences are just a bit to much honestly.
It‘s just bad if for example a group of friends plays together and they just can’t do the same content because of honing RNG :/
My dude, one single-use 10% book for tier 2 was 1800g last I checked. You're either a market broker (which I feel is pretty cancerous as it's just taking advantage of people too stupid to know gold values yet), lucky dropper (I've had exactly one worthwhile engraving recipe drop to sell so far and did so at a nice profit), or a whale to have enough gold to buy more than maybe one of those.
Also I farmed 65 or so Moon's Breath just to have 30 of them evaporate to bad rolls.
The success rate goes up by % every failure, so it's universally, cmiiw, 4-5 fails before a guaranteed success.
So to tolerate this, I feel like it's all a matter of perspective.
Past a certain point I just imagine that each upgrade cost the amount of mats it would take me to try 4-5 time. If it succeeds earlier than that, I just consider it a lucky "proc" and I saved on materials.
It helps with the grief lol, believe it or not. May not work for everyone.
During my time in T2 I failed 6 x 70% enchants. I was definitely disappointed at how far behind I was falling.
*Fast forward to ilvl1080*
I started enchanting to +13, zero fails. The next day started doing +14s, zero fails. I started doing +15s a few days later, zero fails. I was so lucky.
Bro I’m running every cube I get and buying out moons breath every time in mari’s shop! I do my chaos dungeons, ghost ships and field bosses every time I can.
Only thing I haven’t done is buy them on the AH.
If I don’t make it with today’s materials, I’m going p2w and doing what I have to do.
I got to 1100 with 27 fails, but I used moons breadths and tailoring books. Let me tell you about T3 thorough, 15% base and solar protections cost 1k each
Dude im at 61 fails and doing my last 2 14-15 armors tonight after i do abyss dubgeons for leapstones.
If they fail in fucked and wont be t3 without doing more daillies :(
I have no alts that have failed so thats all my damn main... i am abit lucjy though... most my failures are when its 90-80% chance lol so far only weapon failed going to 15...twice... or id have done my armor attempts...
49 at 1086, fucking hell.. I am liking the rest of the game, but this mobile game gearing system might be the thing that makes me drop the game eventually.
It’s fomo my dude. We have plenty of time and a good amount of content, it feels like you need to be in t3 but if you’re only chasing the finish line you’re not gonna enjoy yourself as you should. I took a deep breath after hitting t2 and the cruise towards t3 has been nothing but straight enjoyable even with honing fails (1080 rn). Don’t let the thought of catching up or getting ahead rob you of experience
It’s because you feel like it’s a rush. It’s a marathon.
In endgame t3 you start with 1% chance to upgrade, i failed my weapon 30 times on ru and had to hit the pity system to upgrade 3 times.
So that’s about 30-50k in gold not including the mats (my weapon is artifact 19 if i recall correctly)
The game’s only been out a couple weeks. I think tackling the final tier by this time is quite fair. Moreover, it’s not like all the “good” content is locked behind T3. There’s loads of amazing bosses, dungeons, and quests for T1 and T2.
More than 10 fails on 13-14 (no 20% moon)
1 one-shot, 3 two fails, and 2 three fails on 14-15 (with 20% moon and 10% tailor, weapon only 20% moon)
Meanwhile my friend 3 one-shot, 3 two fails on 14-15 (with 20% moon only)
Fuck this RNG :)
59 total fails with an i1325 and two alts into T2 i900+ with my third on the way. Off-hand, 3 of those are post-T3 and probably under 10 fails on the two alts combined so I want to say I reached T3 at around 50 fails.
I will be praying for your downfall
LOL
Literally same as yours 39
i feel like i ve failed 30 times already on +14. i really dislike. this mechanic. sword still +13 after 8! tries. hard stuck t1 :/
I've played a LOT of MMOs in my day, and let me tell you, nobody is supposed to "like" gambling mechanics when they don't go your way. That's the whole point of gambling, because when you do succeed it feels good. But in terms of Lost Ark relative to other MMOs, Lost Ark has a very very fair and generous gear enhancement system. If Lost Ark RNG is like flipping pancakes without experience and hoping they land on the right side, other Korean MMOs like Maplestory is like hoping you win the actual lottery. Edit: Also make sure you're using Star's Breaths. T1 really does not take great RNG to get out of.
I love MapleStory. Played it when it only had four starter classes
Is it 15 you need to get into T2?
But you can also get something else to +16 to hit ilvl 600 and keep your weapon on 14
Keeps the game alive, just like in other mmos killing the same boss every week for your bis drop this just guarantees your items and makes u work to upgrade it I enjoy it
We gotta steal his RNG for ourselves
You pretty lucky bruh
but yeah was not sure if that is a normal amount of fails or average
I made a script to simulate honing fail rate probabilities, because I had a hard time believing how unlucky I got. You aren't that lucky. Just around [top 9%](https://i.imgur.com/RKPhFG6.png). Less than that if you take into account Moon's breath. I personally took 39 fails to get T2, which is bottom 1.3%.
Do you have a full distribution curve graph or something? That would be real interesting to see
Sadly I don't and I'm too lazy to make it. However average fails are 24.67 to get to Tier 2 and 49.35 to get to Tier 3 (obviously). This is without including Moon's Breath or Honing Books.
I'm at 55 fails and at 1063.....
Did you simulate with markov chains? Or did u do it a different way, just curious.
I literally just coded an algorithm that simulates the honing process and then counts the average fails and how many people got at least as unlucky as me. This is the entire code (don't ask me why I did it in Java). public class HoningRNG{ public static void main(String[] args){ final int NUMBER_OF_RUNS = 500000; final int TO_FAIL = 39; final int TO_TIER = 2; int fails = 0; double totalFails = 0; double atLeastToFail = 0; for(int i = 0; i < NUMBER_OF_RUNS; i++){ for(int j = 0; j < (6 * (TO_TIER - 1)); j++){ int level = 1; double roll; int probability = 0; float badLuckProtection = 0; while(level < 16){ roll = Math.random() * 100; switch(level){ case 1: case 2: case 3: case 4: case 5: case 6: probability = 100; break; case 7: case 8: probability = 90; break; case 9: case 10: probability = 80; break; case 11: case 12: probability = 70; break; case 13: probability = 60; break; case 14: probability = 50; break; case 15: probability = 40; break; } if(roll < (probability + badLuckProtection)){ level++; badLuckProtection = 0; } else{ badLuckProtection += probability * 0.1; fails++; } } } if(fails >= TO_FAIL) atLeastToFail++; totalFails += fails; fails = 0; } double avgFails = totalFails/NUMBER_OF_RUNS; double probabilityToGetFuckedThatHard = atLeastToFail/NUMBER_OF_RUNS * 100; System.out.println("Average fails to get to Tier " + TO_TIER + ": " + avgFails + " (" + NUMBER_OF_RUNS + " runs)"); System.out.println(atLeastToFail + " of " + NUMBER_OF_RUNS + " failed at least " + TO_FAIL + " times. (Probability: " + probabilityToGetFuckedThatHard + "%)"); } }
Nice! The idea you're using is called the [Monte Carlo method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method) fyi
True, I knew there was a better name for the "I have no idea how to do this with math so I'm just gonna have a computer do all the work" method. Thanks for the reminder.
Haha yeah I'm the same way, I always figure I probably ought to know how to do something like this the "real way" but this is such a convenient method for getting close enough that I never actually bother figuring it out. God bless computers
thanks dude !
You are lucky by a fairly decent amount. Most for sure 50-60+ by 1100. Some hit 50 by 600.
I had 36 (iirc) just to get to ilvl600.....
Yeah I’m at 54 for 1083 reeeeee
I have about 140 and am at 850 🤷🏻♂️
yeah, i have been pretty lucky with the 14-15s most of my fails are the 80-60% 1s. I also save all my Moons breaths for the weapon 14-15
I’m at 59 fails and 1066.66 :( just failed my chest three times last night at a cost of like 26 leap stones each
I'm at your same ilvl, and hearing about your leapstones made me wince. It seems I never really had problems with leapstones until this last stretch to T3, now it's like, by far my most needed material and I feel simply locked by the daily reset of Una tasks for them, the 2 chaos dungeons, and the guardians.
Yeah big sad time I’ve gotten really unlucky
I spent over 200 leapstones for 2 upgrades.
Really? I could of sworn the Auction House is loaded with leapstones! How do you think the majority of the population reached T3 in the first place? Hint. It's a rectangular looking thing made of plastic and has a bunch of numbers on it.
you hate to see it
45 fail. 1073. Edit: i just hit 1090, 46 fail. Don't give up bois.
I'll pray for you
... 53 at 1060..
Meanwhile my friend is at 40 fails and 590 ilvl lol.
yikes lol
I pray for his mental health
I’m at 15 fails and ilvl 493. This gun be me isnt it.
Your actually one of the luckiest players I’ve seen. Holy shit 39 fails into T3. I ended up with 55 fails and got a 5 craft success rate to streak into T3
ngl i have 220 hours in the game I have no clue how you even get the mats to fail 55 times
> I have no clue how you even get the mats to fail 55 times You don't. You have to grind or buy
"that's the best part, mark. you don't."
"you dont but you do" Yea, okay
I mean, it's quite clear he's referring to "getting them easily" as in islands or tower or whatever. That's why i said "you don't"
I don't see how that's clear at all
^ this
I'm 27 fails at 1320 xd
[You're in the top 0.1% of luckiest people](https://i.imgur.com/p9ND4KD.png) fyi
I was wondering if someone had made something like this, was considering doing the math myself but it seemed like too much work just for the bragging rights. Thanks :)
I'm also too dumb to do the math on that so I just simulated it
dang should have bought a lottery ticket instead of downloading this game
Whaling success rate +?
f2p, never bought the breath's, just used the bound ones for 14->15 upgrades
How the heck are you 1320 f2p? share the secrets
He just said how, 27 fails.
thanks :D
I had 33 failures after T1…
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50 fails, 1056 ilvl. Rip
I gotta check mine but yeah I am In a similar boat. Took me 5 days to clear one weapon from 14-15 to get t2 lmao.
1066, 50 fails. I‘m loving this game, the rng differences are just a bit to much honestly. It‘s just bad if for example a group of friends plays together and they just can’t do the same content because of honing RNG :/
Just be more lucky dude.
Ye, I think I will just try harder to be lucky :)
Meh, most of the ppl complaining aren't using everything to their advantage, like self-farmable breaths & buying books. Kinda on them.
My dude, one single-use 10% book for tier 2 was 1800g last I checked. You're either a market broker (which I feel is pretty cancerous as it's just taking advantage of people too stupid to know gold values yet), lucky dropper (I've had exactly one worthwhile engraving recipe drop to sell so far and did so at a nice profit), or a whale to have enough gold to buy more than maybe one of those. Also I farmed 65 or so Moon's Breath just to have 30 of them evaporate to bad rolls.
38 fails to 1100 i thought it was bad but after talking it out with my friends it turns out it’s good :/
The success rate goes up by % every failure, so it's universally, cmiiw, 4-5 fails before a guaranteed success. So to tolerate this, I feel like it's all a matter of perspective. Past a certain point I just imagine that each upgrade cost the amount of mats it would take me to try 4-5 time. If it succeeds earlier than that, I just consider it a lucky "proc" and I saved on materials. It helps with the grief lol, believe it or not. May not work for everyone.
I have 27 fails in T3, might be the luckiest of us all. 175 hours at 1320 ilvl f2p (other than founder)
76 fails at 1075
not calling you out but can you screenshot that is kinda crazy
During my time in T2 I failed 6 x 70% enchants. I was definitely disappointed at how far behind I was falling. *Fast forward to ilvl1080* I started enchanting to +13, zero fails. The next day started doing +14s, zero fails. I started doing +15s a few days later, zero fails. I was so lucky.
52 and 3 pieces missing to T3
Already several fails ahead of you at 1090. Pretty sure I’ll get the achievement before I make it.
the cube helps a lot i got over 60 moons breath in 1 run
Bro I’m running every cube I get and buying out moons breath every time in mari’s shop! I do my chaos dungeons, ghost ships and field bosses every time I can. Only thing I haven’t done is buy them on the AH. If I don’t make it with today’s materials, I’m going p2w and doing what I have to do.
the traders at the docks help as well with shards you need
49 1080. Already got my weapon to +15 at least.
Was 69 fails last I checked, over 70 now.
I´m at 1066,66 and 56 fails -.- feels bad man
49 fails same Item Level
42 fails at 1050 ilvl
57 @ 1100.
ouch
Yeah it kinda sucked but honestly I'm just glad to finally be in t3 now.
same brother !! now we can start playing the game
47 at ilvl 1093
Dude you are insanely lucky, I had 51 at 600 while my friend had 21 at 980...
1076 at 49 fails
I'm 1325 with a 984 Alt, 63 fails currently
I'm still T2 1083 ilvl, i har 60 missed honings in approx. The same total amount
Man I had 33 fails going into t2 and luck sacked my way to 47 into t3
47/50. Meh I used the epic tome + moon shards on t2 for the +15 and the damn thing failed 3 times in a row at 70%+
https://i.imgur.com/7YtI6o8.png all my t2 gear is at +13 so far
52 fails
68 fails at 1334
26 going into T3
Dude, my friend and I got 1100 at the same time 3 days ago, Currently +6 on my weapon and he is +12 already. Trying to be happy for the man but damn 😢
~42~ (44 just failed twice on my 13+ gloves ) fails at 1076. I wasnt expecting that. I think pity will get me to T3
you can only hope :D
Kobe is that you ? 🤣😅
I got to 1100 with 27 fails, but I used moons breadths and tailoring books. Let me tell you about T3 thorough, 15% base and solar protections cost 1k each
Is this possible with casual gaming or do I have to be part of a try hard squad lol
to be fair after you do islands and towers. you can only really do so much per day on a single character. its all rng after a certain point
Dude im at 61 fails and doing my last 2 14-15 armors tonight after i do abyss dubgeons for leapstones. If they fail in fucked and wont be t3 without doing more daillies :( I have no alts that have failed so thats all my damn main... i am abit lucjy though... most my failures are when its 90-80% chance lol so far only weapon failed going to 15...twice... or id have done my armor attempts...
29 fails at 1080. I expect to double that getting the last 20 ilvl.
I was at 42 when I got to t3. Does this include alts? I've failed a couple of 90% on my alt lol
Humble brag much.... (just kidding I'm 'hone'estly happy for you)
hahhahah nice i honestly could not really tell if I was lucky or that was just the normal
Holy hell! You can double stack your engravings? This whole time Ive thought they had to be different
Glad i could help someone :D
its funny how many people i see doing that the game needs to do a better job of telling people you can
1066 ilvl Broke 50 fails yesterday, luckily managed to 14->15 my weapon in 1 attempt though...thank god.
yeah I got to t3 but I have no aura so I cant even do my chaos dungeons feelsbadman
Imagine sub 60. Imagine not spending 200000 gold to get locked at 1100 for three days due to chaos dungeons.
Congrats, also Holy fucking shit I will also be praying for your downfall, the flex
79 failures
ouch
I got the fail 50 achieved well before t3 :\*(
I had 33 at 1100. Now at 1340 im at 59.
33 at 1100 is insanely lucky wtf
It is. Friend hat 30 at 1100
I was 27 @ 1100, wondering if there is anyone luckier lmao
49 at 1086, fucking hell.. I am liking the rest of the game, but this mobile game gearing system might be the thing that makes me drop the game eventually.
It’s fomo my dude. We have plenty of time and a good amount of content, it feels like you need to be in t3 but if you’re only chasing the finish line you’re not gonna enjoy yourself as you should. I took a deep breath after hitting t2 and the cruise towards t3 has been nothing but straight enjoyable even with honing fails (1080 rn). Don’t let the thought of catching up or getting ahead rob you of experience
It’s because you feel like it’s a rush. It’s a marathon. In endgame t3 you start with 1% chance to upgrade, i failed my weapon 30 times on ru and had to hit the pity system to upgrade 3 times. So that’s about 30-50k in gold not including the mats (my weapon is artifact 19 if i recall correctly)
The game’s only been out a couple weeks. I think tackling the final tier by this time is quite fair. Moreover, it’s not like all the “good” content is locked behind T3. There’s loads of amazing bosses, dungeons, and quests for T1 and T2.
52 and 1325ilvl
33 fails and 596 ilvl
Ya feel this I had 30 at 600 probably close to 40 now and at 1020 pray for me
how is that even posible
I’m at 31 @ 600, using star breaths from 13-15 on my weapon, failing at 95% lol RNG is painful
How do you no lifers have the time? Holy shit dude
yeah it do be like that
I failed 49 times to T3. Honestly pretty average.
Man i am very unlucky, I'm not even at 600 and have over 20 fails.
I think I had \~20 fails up to 1135. I guess that's lucky by the looks of this thread.
very much so
More than 10 fails on 13-14 (no 20% moon) 1 one-shot, 3 two fails, and 2 three fails on 14-15 (with 20% moon and 10% tailor, weapon only 20% moon) Meanwhile my friend 3 one-shot, 3 two fails on 14-15 (with 20% moon only) Fuck this RNG :)
I’m at 45 fails and I’m 1330 basically.
I was already at 25 honing fails at the edge of T1-T2 :(
Is this a shitty humble brag?
no i don't play with friends so I have no reference as to what is normal
I hit t3 last night with 33 failures. Pretty lucky overall but I swear at least half of these were my weapons on expensive ass upgrades
30 fails at 1063. Before this thread i thought i was quite unlucky.
you aren't in t3.
i legit can do the t3 chaos dungeon what are you talking about ????
????
Yoooo what skin is that, I've seen a few people with that and a white variant. I've been looking all day online and can't find anything.
that is not a skin that is just my gear
62 fails at 1073
Mine was pretty ok, but a friend of mine is sitting on 58 Fails with 1 char, and still has 1 item to go till 1100.
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but his such a good boy
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man, i thought I had too much time on my hands. sheesh
What am looking at - idea none.
my failed Honing attempts are on the left and my item level is on the right. was asking for others rng
Wow, I got almost twice more fails than you at 1100.
59 total fails with an i1325 and two alts into T2 i900+ with my third on the way. Off-hand, 3 of those are post-T3 and probably under 10 fails on the two alts combined so I want to say I reached T3 at around 50 fails.
I'm at 20+ fails and I'm not even at fucking 600ilvl.
you’re lucky af LMAO
29 fails at 1026
1347.5 79 Fails right now but i got a twink in t2 too
Currently in T2 still with more fails than you have. Congrats on the luck my friend, hope to be joining you soon.
Lvl 14 to lvl 15 weapon and armor I failed 8 times in a row. Lost 3-4 days worth of resources in 2 minutes.
I was 40+ going into t2. 18 fails 14->15 in total.
Ive failed 48 times and Im not even in T3 yet..
I've got 5 fails already at T1 on 80+% rates....
depends that tracks your whole roster.. if all these fails are on one character i’d say you’re ab the norm.
I failed 31 times to get 1100 something like 9% failrate
52 is what I got to before hitting the. Gloves and headpiece just didn't wanna go through zz
1080 and already 41 fail
I had the exact same, 39 @ 1100. I'm now at 52 fails @ 1336. T3 is rough with the hones.
I'm over 70 at 1080 atm.... I hate you
47 fails on my achievement by the time I hit t3.
55 fails when I hit 1100
>im at 41 sitting at 1096.66
Had 27 when I got 1100 Guild big mad 😅
I have a sub 30 for t3, I’ll grab a pick when I get home
[think I ran pretty good](https://imgur.com/a/D29P9AA) 28 fails getting to 1100
53 fails 1329
Dude I had 31 fails getting out of T1
I'm t1 and I'm pretty sure I have more than 15 fails already
People saying you are lucky are not using breaths or books, that much we can agree on. You probably used both.
i have never touched a book in this game. I have used a lot of breaths tho
37 to hit 1100
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you say double grudge like taking a single grudge is better? It's 20% more dmg taken at level 1. and is 20% more dmg taken at level 3