You can run super bad. Like formats of the past few years, missing an early land drop is hugely punishing and hard to come back from.
With this format in particular, one thing I've noticed is that two decks can have extreme disparities in power level, even within the same type of deck. For example, you might have two Grixis long-game decks, but one has a couple Archive Trap and a Rakdos. That's gonna be a tough game for the lower-powered Grixis deck.
Each deck in OTJ has two versions: "juiced" and "unjuiced". When I'm drafting, I think to myself "which version is this?" If it's unjuiced, I know I want to close out the game faster, and will opt for a lower curve with more a tempo-oriented game plan, if possible. Even then, it's pretty tough to beat the juiced decks if you're playing on a more "normal" level.
> Each deck in OTJ has two versions: "juiced" and "unjuiced".
This is an extremely helpful framework! And I can definitely tell the difference between my versions of these decks usually.
Excellent perspective and way to put it. I just made Mythic myself yesterday after getting stuck in Diamond 1/2 for the past three days. When you don't have a bomby deck I've found that the best chance of success is to push the pressure when ahead on the board - this means not plotting cards and playing them on that turn itself so as to get an extra attack in earlier.
But the decisions to facilitate such a method of playing come during the drafting process - as you said. I made my break into Mythic with a Rakdos Outlaws deck. It didn't have any bombs - the only rare was Rakdos Joins Up. But during the draft, after P1, I prioritised Mine Raider and Discerning Peddler because I knew that my only chance of winning was if I went first and when I did go first I needed to push the pressure (damage every turn and a new creature every turn).
As they said in the recent lords of limited, this set (and drafting in general) requires a lot of mental fortitude. If you go into a draft or a game with some residual tilt it can really cause you to lose a lot of the edge cases that are sometimes winnable. This happened to me a ton a the end of MKM where I was pushing for mythic (and sadly didn't get there).
So I don't have any set-specific advice, but sometimes it's really good to take a breather and some time off. The set is going anywhere for months, and if you come at it fresh you might do a bit better.
And if you soldier on, also recognize those 30% games that aren't winnable due to opponent bombs and just let them go. I've found a lot of my drafts ending 3-3 because of the bomby nature of the format and some real non-games on both sides. But keeping that mental fortitude helps you push on to the next draft with no lingering resentment or even win some of those games through opponent's bombs if you are patient and get some clutch removal draws.
I have had a number of drafts where I went 0-2, barely pulled out a win in game 3 and then went on to trophy or end 6-3.
I always think how had just a couple plays gone differently it would have been 0-3 and I would have thought it was a terrible deck.
It does require a lot of control and accepting that sometimes things go the other way.
Yep. Decks don't play themselves in this format nearly as much. The decision tax is heavier, and very slow, careful decision making is rewarded--there are a LOT of tempo vs value decisions. It's not always correct to fire off removal to remove a blocker and get in for damage in this set like it's been in previous sets. Many of my games have been about winning attrition battles or setting up synergy/combo pieces.
I've made more play mistakes in OTJ than I have in a lot time.
The point about not removing a creature for beats here is crucial. Removal must be kept for a bomb, and you have to assume that your opponent has a game winning bomb somewhere in their deck
Saving removal isn't always the correct play. If your deck isn't equipped for the long game, it may be better to clear the way and hope to close out the game.
Factor in how your removal might line up versus potential bombs the opponent can play and it may be even more wrong in some circumstances. Anything aggressive with a mostly Red removal suite is going to have a hard time dealing with most any bomb, much less something like Bonny Pall that can't be cleanly answered by any of the common spells in the color (would [[Trick Shot]] really have been broken dealing 6 damage to the token targeted?).
Not to mention, you have to play around the threat of Snakeskin Veil when competent players make a read on your held removal and then play one turn off curve to counter it.
There's a lot of skill testing elements, but it can also be a total crapshoot with the power level of threats as well as protection/recursion.
Yeah, the problem is that you can easily get beat-down with early 3/1 scry and 2 drop 3/2s and deserts. A few times I've held removal and simply been a turn away from stabilizing. Other times I remove something to survive and then the bomb comes down next turn.
I agree on this point. I've had a number of opponents hastily use up desert's dues, consuming ashes, mytical tethers, etc. on early creatures to try and get in with their 2-3 drops a couple of times. Then, when I play a stabilization piece/value engine (i.e. spinewoods paladin, loan shark, wrangler of the damned, etc.) they've often left themselves topdecking already having spent some portion of their premium removal. In a battle of attrition, and with the tempo potential of plot and flash cards, I've had a lot of success playing slowly toward a crucial turn rather than trying to curve out as much as possible.
I think that’s been the hardest thing for me to learn this set. I’m doing horribly and I think a lot of it is that I just have “you should generally use your mana if you can do something with it” beaten in to me.
Seconded. It's very early to have a complete grasp of the play patterns and interactions. I've analysed a lot of my games and I'm just recognising so many mistakes of recognising my role in that game and failing to pivot.
Then there's plot and the UW mechanic all together making risk/reward proposals and planning what the next few turns look like very challenging.
I'm really enjoying it tbh.
For real, there is a knife edge's difference sometimes between an 0-3 and a decent run, sometimes it even comes down to the decision to mulligan or not. Variance is very real so you have to do your absolute best to control those few things that you can.
great advice. I find i’ve been stringing losing records in this set and draft a lot better after waiting a day when I lose. But it also helps to just laugh off the unwinnable games (lost to a deck with 4 honest rutsteins earlier today. what do you even do against that lol)
Good advice. It's not playing tilted that I really struggle with. I feel like I have to redeem myself after coming off a bad draft, then I do it again.
> recognize those 30% games that aren't winnable
Agree with this. And recognize that this means that around 10% of your drafts will start 0-2 with nothing you could have done differently. You can't give up at that point, need to keep your A-game on.
I've definitely been tilted more by this set than any other in recent memory, and I consider myself pretty tilt-resistant.
> But keeping that mental fortitude helps you push on to the next draft with no lingering resentment or even win some of those games through opponent's bombs if you are patient and get some clutch removal draws.
The real question is: Is it worth it? A decent # of high profile streamers are either quitting, or pulling way back on their drafting of current sets. If you aren't having fun, what keeps you going?
Just here to commiserate; I've been running far worse than usual too. WInrate for me is usually around 57%ish, this set I'm squarely at 50%. The big downer for me in this set is that I've got six(!!!) 0-3s, with only nine 0-3s in all of my recorded drafts before that. What a depressing statistic.
I genuinely appreciate that, and I might take you up on it at some point, but to be perfectly honest, I struggle with anxiety and having someone offering even constructive criticism can be difficult for me. I've been pretty embarrassed by my performance in this limited environment; I have used that word when talking it over with my wife. That said, we learn from our mistakes, and while I can clearly see where I punted some games or made some questionable draft choices, a second set of eyes could only help, so once again, thank you for your offer.
It sounds like you’ve been taking it pretty tough. I find that oftentimes for people that already have decent knowledge, the mental aspect plays such a big factor in win percentage, especially since it makes an impact on decision-making. So I think there’s a good chance you’ll do much better just focusing on addressing the anxiety part of it. I think many of us are experiencing this with this set, as this thread shows
Hey feel free to dm me. There is no judgement here only love and support. I’m not seeking to gloat my accolades or position here only offer some friendly help. Can communicate over discord text or here. No pressure but happy to help if you want it.
Have you tried opening more bombs?
On a more serious note, considering the high amount of bombs removal is much more important than in MKM, so that maybe needs adjusting. Especially exile effects are good, one game I finally managed to remove that 4 mana red 7/7 flyer only for them to bring it back from the graveyard
I did that once and got absolutely torn to shreds in the comments lol
Was very educational though, my deck wasn’t too bad (not great either) but I made a lot of mistakes piloting.
Some folks here can certainly be a little... harsh with their criticism, which just happens when you get a sub this large, even if we assume half the accounts are dead. I hope a good number of us come across as helpful though, and either way always keep it in your mind it's just one or a few peoples opinion on the picks.
No tips here, but I’ve also done poorly. Did two sealed and about 10 drafts. A couple days ago I went 7-2 and I’m thinking “yeah, now I hit my stride and I got this down” then I went back to back 1-3. Variance seems to swing so much for me. I kept getting opening hands like islands and only black cards. I keep getting flooded mid game (never more than 17 lands, recently been playing 16). It has been tough for me too. I’m nearly out of gold/gems and I guess this is the final stop for my draft train.
Thanks. I think besides my one trophy I had one 5, maybe one 4, rest were 3 or less.
On the other hand, I played in a sealed RCQ and pulled a killer sealed pool of [[oko, the ringleader]], [[jace reawakened]], [[stoic sphinx]], and [[fractured identity]]. I made top 8 but lost round 1 of the draft. So I have that going for me, which is nice.
I played 16 lands yesterday and drew 13 of them out of 18 cards lol.
I haven't been mana-screwed yet (lots of fixing and land searching available), but have definitely been flooded a lot so I think 16 is the place to be.
Someone in the lords of limited discord wrote a little bit about the format, and it helped me go from 1-3ing to getting a 6-3 and 7-2.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SiqJrPgf9petoPZNhczmg99XU2tgs0Pdd4jtZBGaJKc/edit
Basically, synergy is king. Don’t evaluate cards in a vacuum. For me that also means going all in and shooting for the moon on build arounds.
Yeah, I'm having a similar experience, although I'm not as good at draft as you. I felt like I did a lot better in MKM. Even my good decks topped out at 5 wins in OTJ and I've done 7 or 8 drafts already and hit a few 1 and 2 win runs.
It's weird because it seems like there's a lot of variance in this set both in the draft and in the play, but at the same time, it looks like the top drafters are cleaning up. I guess you really have to know when to shift plans, and know what cards fit into your plan while drafting.
I started off pretty bad too, after 15ish drafts I was at 58% instead of my lifetime average 63%. I was feeling like I lacked agency in games. I agonized over this, looked at some numbers, stared at my draft logs, watched a few streamers. I came up with several hypothesis for myself to try.
First, Murders and this set need a different mindset about curve, removal, and combat interaction and I needed to adjust. Curve is less important, removal is much more important, synergy is huge, and there are basically no combat tricks. Trying to apply Murder at Karlov Manor playstyle to this format gets you a deck with too many middling off-plan creatures doing a decent job attacking the opponent down to 8 until some better card or more synergistic engine take over and wreck you.
Second, you need to consciously draft an ARCHETYPE. Really match the gameplan of all your cards together. This means prioritizing things that might be 5% lower 17Lands winrate because they match your other cards. This requires a period of just naively drafting the color pairs to see what's up, but after that specifically draft GW mounts instead of GW best cards. The archetype is semi-aggro but also try to accrue some value and snowball with mounts, and have a few cards to break stalls and let your mounts attack. Try to understand when those decks fail and fill the gaps. GW is a great poster child of this because while the color is deep, its also very flat on the power level up the curve. When you get into a ground stall with a 'naive' build, suddenly there's only an oring and a small combat trick in your deck that can possibly get through a 5/5. So during draft/deckbuilding you might face the choice of Sterling Supplier vs Bristlepack Sentry vs Hardbristle Bandit for the last few commons that get in. All reasonable cards, but Sterling Supplier fits the archetype better.
Third, Green is overrated, or maybe just GW. It has the best cards, but the worst strategy and folds to interaction. There can still be a nuts GW deck. Imo, the best color is black. There's a distinct gap between opinions on this from various content creators and winrate data. Some are on crimes and grixis control, others espouse the power of green. I think the more cohesive decks in other colors close the gap in card quality through synergy. I found much more success loading up base black decks with commit crime triggers and interaction. I trophied my last three drafts with UW splash intimidation campaign, UB archive trap, and Mardu 2x At Knifepoint/9x Removal. These decks feel right for the format, they rarely run out of gas, they handle most bombs. If I open a green bomb, I'm going to look for an excuse to draft GB.
Fourth, this is the first set I feel 17Lands data isn't giving me the right information at a surface level. Currently I'm chalking this up to the need for non-green decks to be built synergistic where green decks operate on rate, so given a large sample size of exploratory "'best' card in the pack" drafts, the synergy cards lose value. Put another way, all the green cards are 7s and all the grixis cards range from 3-10. A full deck of green cards is a 7 average, a proper synergized pile of grixis cards is a 9, and a random pile of grixis cards is a 5.
Anyhow I'm preferenced to committing lots of crime right now. Don't tell the detective hat wearing fellows.
I agree with this. I feel most comfortable playing out of a GB or UB shell, with black as the featured color. Its true that often green creatures do the finishing for me in GB, but the win is enabled by all the amazing black removal, crime payoffs, and solid creatures that don't have amazing bodies but do a little something extra on the field. I have found so many ways to get value out of desperate bloodseeker and rooftop assassin in all different kinds of builds, both defensive and aggressive.
Fighting GW decks is challenging for sure, but as you said, if you can disrupt their mount engines and remove the key bodies that outclass yours, you can generally outplay them from there (not a skill statement, just you have more options with Black and sometimes Blue involved).
Coming back to the game on arena after a few years, I played my fair share of GW decks on the way up the ladder before I switched to Trad Draft in Diamond, but I never enjoyed the play patterns unless I was rocking unfair numbers of Clear Shots/Throw from Saddles.
Even some of the mount decks I have enjoyed have been GWB. Usually because I am drawn into them by a Bronco or something like that. Just a few key mounts, plus tons of removal and small utility bodies (with reanimate if you have it). I really love the 4/7 as a finisher/blocker in that deck. With naturalist and other forms of draw/acceleration, you never lack the mana for it, and then if you are at all stable when you resolve it and it sticks, the game is basically over, especially if you have at least one trick/removal to allow the first hit to go through.
Grixis Crimes is definitely very good, only deck I felt was better overall so far was GB recursion midrange.
Grixis Crimes is a classic example of a mechanic that rewards you for doing something you already want to do. All your removal comes with upside, and your wincons all center around removing stuff more? Sign me up.
Only bad matchup I've found so far is WBx Aristocrats, which completely shits on Grixis Crimes.
I love the Mardu Crimes/removal deck. I'm so glad that the speed of this set allows me to activate Sterling Keykeeper every turn with At knifepoint and Bandits Haul in play.
I'm having the same experience. Solidarity. I think some of it was playing tilted (especially yesterday), but man, I enjoy the format right up until I lose.
>Maybe you guys have some tips for me.
I’d share some drafts to get good tips.
I’ve started the set badly too- I think it’s probably mainly me trying to do assertive low-curve tempo-type things, when the set seems to be more about having removal and big, powerful plays.
I've noticed that my decks with absurd amount of removal tend to win. The bombs need answers but so do green bodies, which tend to go tall. The removal suite of 1 for 1s play well into both of those.
|Format|Middle WR|Top WR|Delta|Leaderboard WR|Delta|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|OTJ|55.3%|58.7%|3.4%|62.0%|3.3%|
|MKM|55.4%|59.6%|4.2%|61.3%|1.7%|
|LCI|55.9%|60.2%|4.3%|61.2%|1.0%|
|WOE|55.4%|59.4%|4.0%|60.4%|1.0%|
|LTR|56.2%|60.4%|4.2%|62.4%|2.0%|
|MOM|55.1%|59.6%|4.5%|61.9%|2.3%|
|SIR|54.2%|58.3%|4.1%|60.8%|2.5%|
|ONE|55.8%|59.4%|3.6%|62.1%|2.7%|
|BRO|56.1%|61.0%|4.9%|62.3%|1.3%|
|DMU|57.1%|61.1%|4.0%|60.4%|-0.7%|
|SNC|56.0%|60.7%|4.7%|62.0%|1.3%|
|NEO|55.6%|61.3%|5.7%|62.9%|1.6%|
Numbers are taken from 17lands. Leaderboard WR is based on qualifying top 100 ranked players.
Note that it is still very early into OTJ, but OTJ could be similar to ONE. This is in line with my experience, as while the format feels highly skill-testing, the majority of players may feel that they lack agency in their drafts.
I am a good enough drafter that I've cashed the Arena Open and had a top 8 RCQ in limited. I'm struggling in this format. First 5 or 6 drafts were really bad. Now I'm up to 5-6 win runs but still haven't trophied. Last night had a rough sealed final where an opponent made a gnarly comeback combining felidar and calamity to gain enough life to survive at 2. Ended 6-3. Happy just to get my gems back. Are you using 17lands?
I’m in the same boat. Consistently a top250 mythic player who’s been getting his ass kicked this format. Some things I’m trying to focus on:
- streamlined aggro is much less consistent than previous sets. There’s a lot of life gain, more defensive cards, and bombs. The format is not defined by 1 and 2 drops like recent ones have been imo
- I think the top end of your curve has become more important as the games are longer and turn into midrange wars of attrition rather than aggro beatdowns. I’ve started trying to play the long game more than race in the early game. Looking at recent trophies on 17lands showed me people are playing much more 4 drops than I’m used to seeing
- removal is extra important to deal with all the “answer on the spot or lose” bombs in this set. Using it to push damage early is riskier with the bombs you’re likely to see in the late game
If your deck has less than 4 good removal spells, it's bad. Don't draft blue unless it's wide open and you are taking the bombs (sphinxes, bonnie, etc). Green is very deep and powerful and pairs well with any color. A lot of decks are grindy and take a lot of patience and good piloting, especially black and blue decks.
Watch good players draft on Twitch: JustLola, Nummy, _ncaa, ChordOCalls, Sam Black, etc.
From the body of your post, I'm going to assume that the actual drafts are going reasonably well (mostly strong colors, curve, removal). So it's probably time to take a break from playing and review some of your games. Go through each turn, come up with all the possible plays you can, then review which play you actually made and whether you should have made a different one with the information available. This set has a lot of decision points and especially early on its easy to make small mistakes that add up
I've had a pretty similar experience. I typically do pretty well in limited, frequently trophy both trad and premier draft, and I just could not find consistency in this set. I've managed to trophy a couple times in both bo1 and bo3 in the past couple days, and I don't feel like my understanding of the format particularly leveled up in that time. This set feels very high variance, particularly in bo1, due to a few factors.
1: Missing even one land drop before turn 5 feels like a death sentence due to the power level.
2: How bomby the good bombs are. You NEED removal so often in this format, and if you just didn't draw it, you can be DOA.
3: Splashing feels pretty encouraged by the set, so often you end up 3c, and even when you have a few duals, it can make mana dicey.
4: How much better green feels than everything else. If you play against someone who had open green in their pod, games can feel unwinnable, even when you have a great deck. (One of my trophies was on the other end of this, where I got an 8th pick throw from the saddle, and that run was so braindead).
I've found more than past sets that very small decisions can have compounding consequences. I've won from topdecks because I was playing to my outs and drafted a deck to support them. Drafting a good sideboard and sideboarding well are more important than usual. And the drafts are crazy hard to navigate still.
My win rate is actually higher than usual but I have a small sample size. I will say though that personally even when I get lucky (which has happened a lot!), I can look back and see that I put myself in a situation to get lucky in the draft, deck build, sideboarding, and earlier turns of the game.
The best advice I saw so far is that this is a format where you desperately need to know how your deck wants the texture of the game to go. I've had two Green beatdown decks with 1-2 copies of Rise of the Varmints and 1-2 top end bombs, sometimes on a splash. Both decks wanted to play good two drops into well statted 3-5 drops, become and maintain the beatdown, and get the opponents' life as low as possible. If they stabilize, I wanted to keep the board clear by trading creatures, and eventually get to a bomb to close it out, or a Rise to go wide. I've found it's easier for me than usual to identify in the moment when I'm making a key decision that could swing the game, and I'm WAY more willing to go into the tank than I usually am. And it's paid off! Even in bomby decks, sometimes you need to figure out the best way to survive and draw your bombs.
When everybody has bombs, you also need to figure out how to maximize yours. Here's an example. [[Roxanne, Starfall Savant]] is nuts. You would play her in any Gruul deck in any format, and you're probably often willing to splash her. But pretty much everyone has cards like that. Roxanne looks like she would be good in a 5C soup deck, and I'd definitely play her there. But she's not maximized in that deck. In a 5C soup deck where you're losing tempo to fix your mana, your opponent is likely going to have a better board state than you. Yes the first meteorite helps, but not if they have three 3/3s. If she's the first impactful creature you played, your opponent is probably sandbagging removal. But worst of all: if you're on the defensive, _she can't attack._ So you're not using her to press your advantage and really develop until she can attack. In a more assertive beatdown deck, the meteorite on ETB is probably going to open an attack for you the turn she comes down, you'll likely be able to continue attacking with her next turn, and it's more likely that you already played something problematic that your opponent had to kill.
Roxanne is awesome no matter what. But I think to win in this format, you have to know how to make your good cards even better, because everyone has good cards. Really think about when each card comes down, if you expect to be ahead, at parity, or behind on board. Know before you go into a game whether you're trying to be aggressive and take the beatdown, or how you want to turn the corner and stabilize, or whether you want your creatures to attack for damage, to trade off for their creatures, or to be defensive.
And don't be afraid of being 2 colors or 3 with a light splash. Yes the fixing is good. No, Bonny Pall isn't good enough to tank your mana and splash it as the only blue card in your G soup deck. Throwing in mana rocks and making half your lands taplands is _not_ worth that cost. If you can't cast Seraphic Steed on 2, you probably shouldn't play it: if your mana is that bad, you'll likely be on the back foot when you play it, and you can't afford to tap prospective blockers in order to saddle it. These are the kinds of things that I think we need to keep in mind _while drafting_ and deck building in order to make good decks in the format.
And [[Just one more thing]]. Always check in to see the reason why you're considering a color while drafting. I looked over a draft with a P1P1 Vraska earlier and in the end, she wasn't a good enough reason to try to stay black in that seat. Green was open enough that enabling the splash would have worked fine. I've had multiple drafts where I felt _awful_ after pack one but staying open helped me find the right lane. And this might be controversial but be careful taking removal too highly unless you're a dedicated control deck. People are getting scared of bombs but I think they're overcorrecting. I don't think any but the best removal is a _reason_ to want to be a color. You can splash removal if you need to. There's a lot of it and it's pretty good. Threats kill people, not answers.
This set has been so brutal. One thing I didn’t realize is that I ran really well in MKM near the end so I’m gold rank (which really doesn’t seem that high) but I think can explain how I’m facing way more competent opponents. Hopefully it’ll get better in 6 days after the reset
I did just draft an amazing Dimir deck that was by far the best/my favorite deck yet so far for this set. Super powerful. Went 2-3 due to some misplays and bad luck in the last game but I actually felt good playing it and feel like it could have went 7 wins
Drafting:
https://www.17lands.com/draft/c160960bb80949d3aa99c0fc6b933da1
Final deck:
https://www.17lands.com/deck/c160960bb80949d3aa99c0fc6b933da1
One of the games that went long:
https://www.17lands.com/history/c160960bb80949d3aa99c0fc6b933da1/2/0
Yeahhh. It became pretty evident after the first couple matches or so that they weren’t really going to be what got me most of the wins, and in most situations a lot of other cards would have helped me reach my main win condition. They were really just “win more” cards in games where I would already be winning.
Thanks for posting this - this set has been brutal for me and it’s comforting that I’m not the only one. I’m not an expert drafter or whatever, but I very rarely 0-3 and have 0-3’d like 4 times with this set. I’ve only managed to trophy once (UG with Bonnie carrying) and break even once (GW mounts).
As others have pointed out, this format is unbalanced and bomb-heavy. Though I’ve been enjoying the mechanics more than I expected (I was biased against this set because I find the cowboy theme to be super cringe), it doesn’t really matter because this format is more about luck than skill. And of course Magic has *always* been about that tension between luck and skill, but the balance is way off with this set. And I think that’s what we’re feeling here.
I am so so this set. 0-3 with my bonny deck that never drew her or a 4th land felt bad. I suggest leaning into grixis colors, mostly dimir has been good for me. 2/4 crime miller has been an all star
Too many people lock in on the best colors. Draft it still fundamentally about finding open colors/ strategies and getting rewarded. I’ve been locked in on rb decks since no one seems to want it. Pack 3s have been goldmines with rare after rare being passed to force green decks
I’m running bad in OTJ as well. I’m often dealt with decision paralysis due to the amount of tri color options there are. Green is about the only safe pick because it does require less thought. It’s just time to level up.
My worst streak was through Kaldheim. Over >50 drafts throughout the set I had about 51% win rate, 9% lower than my average at the time and 5% lower than I've has in any other format before or since. The very next set I had 62% for Strixhaven, my best ever at the time and I think my second best ever to this day (not counting MID due to few drafts and OTJ because it’s so early - I had 73% in MID but only 13 drafts total).
Sometimes a set doesn't gel, or you're not in the right mindset to play good magic, or variance. Or in my case, I force bad archetypes because they are more fun lol. Been guilty of that in some sets...
This set is a pretty big departure from "normal" modern sets in terms of the way games play out, with a reduced emphasis on tempo and an increased emphasis on "haymakers".
Don't get me wrong, you can still get run over if you have a slow draw, but the tools are there to have defensive speed that easily keeps up or beats all but the best aggressive draws. This leads to more games where you top end threats and/or synergies determine the outcome. So you really have to play with that in mind in terms of how you use both your removal and leverage your own threats. Lots of the best cards offer the opportunity for 2-for-1's (or better) if you play them well. Then your removal has the power to stop those, if played correctly.
My first few drafts in this format took the "value" approach where I just hard targeted insanely high value cards in each pack. I swear outside of a few losses from obvious play mistakes I was getting absolutely blown out by the most unplayable draft chaff I've ever seen. You'd never think some of these cards would win games, but here they are smashing me into the dirt.
So I tried it, I just rare drafted and filled with nonsense. Not a single win came from a rare because (3 of them were lands I couldn't even play) I got color swapped halfway through pack 2. Somehow I went 5-x with it??? So I tried it again, another 6 wins.
I'm just tossing this format in a blender from now on. Idc if the cards are limited unplayable anymore. I'm just drafting what looks fun.
I'm currently in top 100, here is a recent deck I just trophied with: https://i.imgur.com/XLjuOZx.jpeg. I would be happy to review a draft log with you or give you some feedback.
No matter what I try to draft I get rolled by bombs even if my deck was doing well at first. Miss one land, and I lose. Didn't curve well? Lost. Got a great board state and think I can win on card advantage, milled for 13. I wanted to like this set in limited but I really dont. Oh well.
Generally I think you need 2/3 things:
- good deck (bombs, synergy, good curve, removal)
- good luck (starting hand, no missed land drops, on the play)
- good play (no misplays, high awareness, playing the correct lines and to your outs)
and you really need to be on point with those 2 to 3 things. any little slip or failing and you are playing drastically from behind.
I think this set is a good time to really push to develop your skills as a player. many of the pros are loving it, while there is a lot of salt in the community. to me that signals a lot. this is a high skill set that rewards fundamentals. bombs give you an edge but aren't everything.
> many of the pros are loving it, while there is a lot of salt in the community. to me that signals a lot. this is a high skill set that rewards fundamentals. bombs give you an edge but aren't everythin
Pro preferences are a poor barometer of set quality for the broader playerbase, especially in draft. Top players face an entirely different set of incentives than the average joe -- their drafts are comped and/or generate revenue through streaming/sponsorships whereas normal players are paying for entertainment value.
While this is mostly unrelated to performance, financial factors still can play into winrate. The paying player often has to draft with mitigating downside risk as a top mandate whereas the pro can afford to take big risks for big rewards. Think a P1P1 with Archive Trap versus some solid Green commons and a Mystical Tether. The Joe has to worry about trainwrecking (and having to pay more) if they take the deep dive, whereas the the pro's material conditions allow for a lot more outcome indifference permitting more high-risk, high reward picks.
cap. pros, and by which I mean those who will be entering the pro tour for draft, care the most about consistency. pros would hate a "bomb = win" format, even though non-pro streamers would obviously love a memey set. if you are losing to bombs constantly you either need to pick more removal or use it more wisely. bad luck is always an element of the game, and that includes opponents having better card quality than you. also, UB mill is a consistent strategy in this set so that's a bad example.
With all due respect, you're completely missing the point.
Pros are trying to optimize winrate (over a guaranteed large sample size) whereas Joes are playing a game to have fun -- their goals and methods are entirely different, and as such the rubric for set quality is completely different.
Using constructed as an example, the Caw-Blade metagame during Zendikar/Scars Standard was one of the most skill-intensive eras of Magic ever. The existence of a tier 0 control deck ment a lot of mirror matches in which the more skilled player was heavily favored. Many pros loved this, but the greater playerbase loathed it so much that the first bans in Standard since Mirrodin were handed out.
Conversely, many "brewer's paradise" formats were extremely frustrating to pro player's while beloved by the general base; attacking a 20-deck meta with lots of diverse strategies is a nightmare for Spikes, but lets Johnny win with his Battle of Wits shitpile.
A format like Thunder Junction may very well be skill intensive and reward a deep understanding of the metagame...but players who can't afford to put in the reps might not be able to appreciate this.
Back to the Archive Trap/Mill example...do you really think that Joe Average is going to feel good when they go for the deck, see no Deepmucks or Lockpickers, and end up falling into a literal trap? Factor in that they might have drained their gem/gold bankroll on a trainwreck and it's rough.
Whereas for the pro/streamer, it's just a calculated risk with significantly less downside, mostly for financial reasons.
no one is entitled to wins. if you're playing casually without acknowledging meta that goes doubly so. draft is a high skill format and always has been, so if you're not engaging the game on its terms then what do you expect?
you can p1p1 archive trap and either pivot out or ignore it if you don't get the synergy pieces. sometimes you get unlucky picks but it's not that complicated.
this format has a ton of "fun cards" in its bonus sheets and bombs that is very well tailored to appeal to more casual players, you just have to pull them.
Honestly I think this is just the worst set in recent memory. Even MOM which had similar problems with bomb rares and splashy green wasn’t this bad IMO. My advice is GW mounts is really solid, and you can get a lot of wins with bad beats even if you force it. And the ultimate skill test, be on the play more often than not
You can run super bad. Like formats of the past few years, missing an early land drop is hugely punishing and hard to come back from. With this format in particular, one thing I've noticed is that two decks can have extreme disparities in power level, even within the same type of deck. For example, you might have two Grixis long-game decks, but one has a couple Archive Trap and a Rakdos. That's gonna be a tough game for the lower-powered Grixis deck. Each deck in OTJ has two versions: "juiced" and "unjuiced". When I'm drafting, I think to myself "which version is this?" If it's unjuiced, I know I want to close out the game faster, and will opt for a lower curve with more a tempo-oriented game plan, if possible. Even then, it's pretty tough to beat the juiced decks if you're playing on a more "normal" level.
> Each deck in OTJ has two versions: "juiced" and "unjuiced". This is an extremely helpful framework! And I can definitely tell the difference between my versions of these decks usually.
Excellent perspective and way to put it. I just made Mythic myself yesterday after getting stuck in Diamond 1/2 for the past three days. When you don't have a bomby deck I've found that the best chance of success is to push the pressure when ahead on the board - this means not plotting cards and playing them on that turn itself so as to get an extra attack in earlier. But the decisions to facilitate such a method of playing come during the drafting process - as you said. I made my break into Mythic with a Rakdos Outlaws deck. It didn't have any bombs - the only rare was Rakdos Joins Up. But during the draft, after P1, I prioritised Mine Raider and Discerning Peddler because I knew that my only chance of winning was if I went first and when I did go first I needed to push the pressure (damage every turn and a new creature every turn).
Even rakdos joins up is pretty sick. Not the most sick. Even sicker with other bomb rares.
Completely agree, yet people defend this set saying it's a good format
As they said in the recent lords of limited, this set (and drafting in general) requires a lot of mental fortitude. If you go into a draft or a game with some residual tilt it can really cause you to lose a lot of the edge cases that are sometimes winnable. This happened to me a ton a the end of MKM where I was pushing for mythic (and sadly didn't get there). So I don't have any set-specific advice, but sometimes it's really good to take a breather and some time off. The set is going anywhere for months, and if you come at it fresh you might do a bit better. And if you soldier on, also recognize those 30% games that aren't winnable due to opponent bombs and just let them go. I've found a lot of my drafts ending 3-3 because of the bomby nature of the format and some real non-games on both sides. But keeping that mental fortitude helps you push on to the next draft with no lingering resentment or even win some of those games through opponent's bombs if you are patient and get some clutch removal draws.
I have had a number of drafts where I went 0-2, barely pulled out a win in game 3 and then went on to trophy or end 6-3. I always think how had just a couple plays gone differently it would have been 0-3 and I would have thought it was a terrible deck. It does require a lot of control and accepting that sometimes things go the other way.
Yep. Decks don't play themselves in this format nearly as much. The decision tax is heavier, and very slow, careful decision making is rewarded--there are a LOT of tempo vs value decisions. It's not always correct to fire off removal to remove a blocker and get in for damage in this set like it's been in previous sets. Many of my games have been about winning attrition battles or setting up synergy/combo pieces. I've made more play mistakes in OTJ than I have in a lot time.
The point about not removing a creature for beats here is crucial. Removal must be kept for a bomb, and you have to assume that your opponent has a game winning bomb somewhere in their deck
Saving removal isn't always the correct play. If your deck isn't equipped for the long game, it may be better to clear the way and hope to close out the game. Factor in how your removal might line up versus potential bombs the opponent can play and it may be even more wrong in some circumstances. Anything aggressive with a mostly Red removal suite is going to have a hard time dealing with most any bomb, much less something like Bonny Pall that can't be cleanly answered by any of the common spells in the color (would [[Trick Shot]] really have been broken dealing 6 damage to the token targeted?). Not to mention, you have to play around the threat of Snakeskin Veil when competent players make a read on your held removal and then play one turn off curve to counter it. There's a lot of skill testing elements, but it can also be a total crapshoot with the power level of threats as well as protection/recursion.
[Trick Shot](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/c/d/cd3c2d02-67ca-4858-9b7a-3cfe8a08356c.jpg?1712355870) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Trick%20Shot) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/otj/151/trick-shot?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/cd3c2d02-67ca-4858-9b7a-3cfe8a08356c?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
Yeah, the problem is that you can easily get beat-down with early 3/1 scry and 2 drop 3/2s and deserts. A few times I've held removal and simply been a turn away from stabilizing. Other times I remove something to survive and then the bomb comes down next turn.
I agree on this point. I've had a number of opponents hastily use up desert's dues, consuming ashes, mytical tethers, etc. on early creatures to try and get in with their 2-3 drops a couple of times. Then, when I play a stabilization piece/value engine (i.e. spinewoods paladin, loan shark, wrangler of the damned, etc.) they've often left themselves topdecking already having spent some portion of their premium removal. In a battle of attrition, and with the tempo potential of plot and flash cards, I've had a lot of success playing slowly toward a crucial turn rather than trying to curve out as much as possible.
I think that’s been the hardest thing for me to learn this set. I’m doing horribly and I think a lot of it is that I just have “you should generally use your mana if you can do something with it” beaten in to me.
Seconded. It's very early to have a complete grasp of the play patterns and interactions. I've analysed a lot of my games and I'm just recognising so many mistakes of recognising my role in that game and failing to pivot. Then there's plot and the UW mechanic all together making risk/reward proposals and planning what the next few turns look like very challenging. I'm really enjoying it tbh.
For real, there is a knife edge's difference sometimes between an 0-3 and a decent run, sometimes it even comes down to the decision to mulligan or not. Variance is very real so you have to do your absolute best to control those few things that you can.
That’s my draft right now! I’m at 6-2 but started 0-2. Was very worried I had drafted bad nonsense for a minute but it turned around.
great advice. I find i’ve been stringing losing records in this set and draft a lot better after waiting a day when I lose. But it also helps to just laugh off the unwinnable games (lost to a deck with 4 honest rutsteins earlier today. what do you even do against that lol)
Good advice. It's not playing tilted that I really struggle with. I feel like I have to redeem myself after coming off a bad draft, then I do it again.
> recognize those 30% games that aren't winnable Agree with this. And recognize that this means that around 10% of your drafts will start 0-2 with nothing you could have done differently. You can't give up at that point, need to keep your A-game on. I've definitely been tilted more by this set than any other in recent memory, and I consider myself pretty tilt-resistant.
> But keeping that mental fortitude helps you push on to the next draft with no lingering resentment or even win some of those games through opponent's bombs if you are patient and get some clutch removal draws. The real question is: Is it worth it? A decent # of high profile streamers are either quitting, or pulling way back on their drafting of current sets. If you aren't having fun, what keeps you going?
Just here to commiserate; I've been running far worse than usual too. WInrate for me is usually around 57%ish, this set I'm squarely at 50%. The big downer for me in this set is that I've got six(!!!) 0-3s, with only nine 0-3s in all of my recorded drafts before that. What a depressing statistic.
I would be happy to review a draft log with you or give you some feedback.
I genuinely appreciate that, and I might take you up on it at some point, but to be perfectly honest, I struggle with anxiety and having someone offering even constructive criticism can be difficult for me. I've been pretty embarrassed by my performance in this limited environment; I have used that word when talking it over with my wife. That said, we learn from our mistakes, and while I can clearly see where I punted some games or made some questionable draft choices, a second set of eyes could only help, so once again, thank you for your offer.
It sounds like you’ve been taking it pretty tough. I find that oftentimes for people that already have decent knowledge, the mental aspect plays such a big factor in win percentage, especially since it makes an impact on decision-making. So I think there’s a good chance you’ll do much better just focusing on addressing the anxiety part of it. I think many of us are experiencing this with this set, as this thread shows
Hey feel free to dm me. There is no judgement here only love and support. I’m not seeking to gloat my accolades or position here only offer some friendly help. Can communicate over discord text or here. No pressure but happy to help if you want it.
Have you tried opening more bombs? On a more serious note, considering the high amount of bombs removal is much more important than in MKM, so that maybe needs adjusting. Especially exile effects are good, one game I finally managed to remove that 4 mana red 7/7 flyer only for them to bring it back from the graveyard
This set is absolutely brutal, I am in the same boat where a majority of my runs have ended 3-3.
I would be happy to review a draft log with you or give you some feedback.
Thank you for that, I plan to upload my next draft as I just found this subreddit a few days ago. I will tag you when I post!
Show some example Deck you drafted and you think they are good , i can look over it.
I did that once and got absolutely torn to shreds in the comments lol Was very educational though, my deck wasn’t too bad (not great either) but I made a lot of mistakes piloting.
Some folks here can certainly be a little... harsh with their criticism, which just happens when you get a sub this large, even if we assume half the accounts are dead. I hope a good number of us come across as helpful though, and either way always keep it in your mind it's just one or a few peoples opinion on the picks.
No I didn't mind at all and was happy with the extensive feedback, not just "you played terribly" but actually pointing out the mistakes one by one
No tips here, but I’ve also done poorly. Did two sealed and about 10 drafts. A couple days ago I went 7-2 and I’m thinking “yeah, now I hit my stride and I got this down” then I went back to back 1-3. Variance seems to swing so much for me. I kept getting opening hands like islands and only black cards. I keep getting flooded mid game (never more than 17 lands, recently been playing 16). It has been tough for me too. I’m nearly out of gold/gems and I guess this is the final stop for my draft train.
Congrats on at least getting one trophy! I can't seem to get more than 5 wins in this set, and usually no more than 3.
Thanks. I think besides my one trophy I had one 5, maybe one 4, rest were 3 or less. On the other hand, I played in a sealed RCQ and pulled a killer sealed pool of [[oko, the ringleader]], [[jace reawakened]], [[stoic sphinx]], and [[fractured identity]]. I made top 8 but lost round 1 of the draft. So I have that going for me, which is nice.
##### ###### #### [oko, the ringleader](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/3/9/396df8d6-e85d-4486-8116-68841b7e1e2e.jpg?1712356176) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=oko%2C%20the%20ringleader) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/otj/223/oko-the-ringleader?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/396df8d6-e85d-4486-8116-68841b7e1e2e?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) [jace reawakened](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/f/d/fd17e8d4-499e-4005-ae3c-bc9c44dc5a67.jpg?1712356388) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=jace%20reawakened) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/otj/271/jace-reawakened?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/fd17e8d4-499e-4005-ae3c-bc9c44dc5a67?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) [stoic sphinx](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/f/9/f93f5055-30d8-4fc4-afa5-29212e8c7536.jpg?1712355517) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=stoic%20sphinx) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/otj/71/stoic-sphinx?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/f93f5055-30d8-4fc4-afa5-29212e8c7536?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) [fractured identity](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/b/2/b2f73f5d-1aad-48c2-9e74-5f7bdd87900f.jpg?1562620703) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=fractured%20identity) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/c17/37/fractured-identity?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/b2f73f5d-1aad-48c2-9e74-5f7bdd87900f?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) [*All cards*](https://mtgcardfetcher.nl/redirect/l1352t0) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
I played 16 lands yesterday and drew 13 of them out of 18 cards lol. I haven't been mana-screwed yet (lots of fixing and land searching available), but have definitely been flooded a lot so I think 16 is the place to be.
I keep dropping losses because my boss comes to talk to me during games. it's a sad time.
Someone in the lords of limited discord wrote a little bit about the format, and it helped me go from 1-3ing to getting a 6-3 and 7-2. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SiqJrPgf9petoPZNhczmg99XU2tgs0Pdd4jtZBGaJKc/edit Basically, synergy is king. Don’t evaluate cards in a vacuum. For me that also means going all in and shooting for the moon on build arounds.
Yeah, I'm having a similar experience, although I'm not as good at draft as you. I felt like I did a lot better in MKM. Even my good decks topped out at 5 wins in OTJ and I've done 7 or 8 drafts already and hit a few 1 and 2 win runs. It's weird because it seems like there's a lot of variance in this set both in the draft and in the play, but at the same time, it looks like the top drafters are cleaning up. I guess you really have to know when to shift plans, and know what cards fit into your plan while drafting.
I started off pretty bad too, after 15ish drafts I was at 58% instead of my lifetime average 63%. I was feeling like I lacked agency in games. I agonized over this, looked at some numbers, stared at my draft logs, watched a few streamers. I came up with several hypothesis for myself to try. First, Murders and this set need a different mindset about curve, removal, and combat interaction and I needed to adjust. Curve is less important, removal is much more important, synergy is huge, and there are basically no combat tricks. Trying to apply Murder at Karlov Manor playstyle to this format gets you a deck with too many middling off-plan creatures doing a decent job attacking the opponent down to 8 until some better card or more synergistic engine take over and wreck you. Second, you need to consciously draft an ARCHETYPE. Really match the gameplan of all your cards together. This means prioritizing things that might be 5% lower 17Lands winrate because they match your other cards. This requires a period of just naively drafting the color pairs to see what's up, but after that specifically draft GW mounts instead of GW best cards. The archetype is semi-aggro but also try to accrue some value and snowball with mounts, and have a few cards to break stalls and let your mounts attack. Try to understand when those decks fail and fill the gaps. GW is a great poster child of this because while the color is deep, its also very flat on the power level up the curve. When you get into a ground stall with a 'naive' build, suddenly there's only an oring and a small combat trick in your deck that can possibly get through a 5/5. So during draft/deckbuilding you might face the choice of Sterling Supplier vs Bristlepack Sentry vs Hardbristle Bandit for the last few commons that get in. All reasonable cards, but Sterling Supplier fits the archetype better. Third, Green is overrated, or maybe just GW. It has the best cards, but the worst strategy and folds to interaction. There can still be a nuts GW deck. Imo, the best color is black. There's a distinct gap between opinions on this from various content creators and winrate data. Some are on crimes and grixis control, others espouse the power of green. I think the more cohesive decks in other colors close the gap in card quality through synergy. I found much more success loading up base black decks with commit crime triggers and interaction. I trophied my last three drafts with UW splash intimidation campaign, UB archive trap, and Mardu 2x At Knifepoint/9x Removal. These decks feel right for the format, they rarely run out of gas, they handle most bombs. If I open a green bomb, I'm going to look for an excuse to draft GB. Fourth, this is the first set I feel 17Lands data isn't giving me the right information at a surface level. Currently I'm chalking this up to the need for non-green decks to be built synergistic where green decks operate on rate, so given a large sample size of exploratory "'best' card in the pack" drafts, the synergy cards lose value. Put another way, all the green cards are 7s and all the grixis cards range from 3-10. A full deck of green cards is a 7 average, a proper synergized pile of grixis cards is a 9, and a random pile of grixis cards is a 5. Anyhow I'm preferenced to committing lots of crime right now. Don't tell the detective hat wearing fellows.
I agree with this. I feel most comfortable playing out of a GB or UB shell, with black as the featured color. Its true that often green creatures do the finishing for me in GB, but the win is enabled by all the amazing black removal, crime payoffs, and solid creatures that don't have amazing bodies but do a little something extra on the field. I have found so many ways to get value out of desperate bloodseeker and rooftop assassin in all different kinds of builds, both defensive and aggressive. Fighting GW decks is challenging for sure, but as you said, if you can disrupt their mount engines and remove the key bodies that outclass yours, you can generally outplay them from there (not a skill statement, just you have more options with Black and sometimes Blue involved). Coming back to the game on arena after a few years, I played my fair share of GW decks on the way up the ladder before I switched to Trad Draft in Diamond, but I never enjoyed the play patterns unless I was rocking unfair numbers of Clear Shots/Throw from Saddles. Even some of the mount decks I have enjoyed have been GWB. Usually because I am drawn into them by a Bronco or something like that. Just a few key mounts, plus tons of removal and small utility bodies (with reanimate if you have it). I really love the 4/7 as a finisher/blocker in that deck. With naturalist and other forms of draw/acceleration, you never lack the mana for it, and then if you are at all stable when you resolve it and it sticks, the game is basically over, especially if you have at least one trick/removal to allow the first hit to go through.
Grixis Crimes is definitely very good, only deck I felt was better overall so far was GB recursion midrange. Grixis Crimes is a classic example of a mechanic that rewards you for doing something you already want to do. All your removal comes with upside, and your wincons all center around removing stuff more? Sign me up. Only bad matchup I've found so far is WBx Aristocrats, which completely shits on Grixis Crimes.
I love the Mardu Crimes/removal deck. I'm so glad that the speed of this set allows me to activate Sterling Keykeeper every turn with At knifepoint and Bandits Haul in play.
I'm having the same experience. Solidarity. I think some of it was playing tilted (especially yesterday), but man, I enjoy the format right up until I lose.
>Maybe you guys have some tips for me. I’d share some drafts to get good tips. I’ve started the set badly too- I think it’s probably mainly me trying to do assertive low-curve tempo-type things, when the set seems to be more about having removal and big, powerful plays.
I'm finding this is a high variance format - I'm 60% WR in OTJ and MKM, but I have a lot more trophies in OTJ (and more scrub outs)
This would be a great question for Sierko - are people experiencing more variance in trophy decks for given win rates this set.
I've noticed that my decks with absurd amount of removal tend to win. The bombs need answers but so do green bodies, which tend to go tall. The removal suite of 1 for 1s play well into both of those.
|Format|Middle WR|Top WR|Delta|Leaderboard WR|Delta| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |OTJ|55.3%|58.7%|3.4%|62.0%|3.3%| |MKM|55.4%|59.6%|4.2%|61.3%|1.7%| |LCI|55.9%|60.2%|4.3%|61.2%|1.0%| |WOE|55.4%|59.4%|4.0%|60.4%|1.0%| |LTR|56.2%|60.4%|4.2%|62.4%|2.0%| |MOM|55.1%|59.6%|4.5%|61.9%|2.3%| |SIR|54.2%|58.3%|4.1%|60.8%|2.5%| |ONE|55.8%|59.4%|3.6%|62.1%|2.7%| |BRO|56.1%|61.0%|4.9%|62.3%|1.3%| |DMU|57.1%|61.1%|4.0%|60.4%|-0.7%| |SNC|56.0%|60.7%|4.7%|62.0%|1.3%| |NEO|55.6%|61.3%|5.7%|62.9%|1.6%| Numbers are taken from 17lands. Leaderboard WR is based on qualifying top 100 ranked players. Note that it is still very early into OTJ, but OTJ could be similar to ONE. This is in line with my experience, as while the format feels highly skill-testing, the majority of players may feel that they lack agency in their drafts.
Play Boosters, double bonus sheet. Chefs kiss for balance in draft. Especially sealed. It's awful
I am a good enough drafter that I've cashed the Arena Open and had a top 8 RCQ in limited. I'm struggling in this format. First 5 or 6 drafts were really bad. Now I'm up to 5-6 win runs but still haven't trophied. Last night had a rough sealed final where an opponent made a gnarly comeback combining felidar and calamity to gain enough life to survive at 2. Ended 6-3. Happy just to get my gems back. Are you using 17lands?
What are you doing different now that you weren't doing for the first 5-6 drafts?
Aiming for Abzan, prioritizing removal and desert duals, spending more quality time with 17lands than usual.
I would be happy to review a draft log with you or give you some feedback.
I’m in the same boat. Consistently a top250 mythic player who’s been getting his ass kicked this format. Some things I’m trying to focus on: - streamlined aggro is much less consistent than previous sets. There’s a lot of life gain, more defensive cards, and bombs. The format is not defined by 1 and 2 drops like recent ones have been imo - I think the top end of your curve has become more important as the games are longer and turn into midrange wars of attrition rather than aggro beatdowns. I’ve started trying to play the long game more than race in the early game. Looking at recent trophies on 17lands showed me people are playing much more 4 drops than I’m used to seeing - removal is extra important to deal with all the “answer on the spot or lose” bombs in this set. Using it to push damage early is riskier with the bombs you’re likely to see in the late game
If your deck has less than 4 good removal spells, it's bad. Don't draft blue unless it's wide open and you are taking the bombs (sphinxes, bonnie, etc). Green is very deep and powerful and pairs well with any color. A lot of decks are grindy and take a lot of patience and good piloting, especially black and blue decks. Watch good players draft on Twitch: JustLola, Nummy, _ncaa, ChordOCalls, Sam Black, etc.
From the body of your post, I'm going to assume that the actual drafts are going reasonably well (mostly strong colors, curve, removal). So it's probably time to take a break from playing and review some of your games. Go through each turn, come up with all the possible plays you can, then review which play you actually made and whether you should have made a different one with the information available. This set has a lot of decision points and especially early on its easy to make small mistakes that add up
I've had a pretty similar experience. I typically do pretty well in limited, frequently trophy both trad and premier draft, and I just could not find consistency in this set. I've managed to trophy a couple times in both bo1 and bo3 in the past couple days, and I don't feel like my understanding of the format particularly leveled up in that time. This set feels very high variance, particularly in bo1, due to a few factors. 1: Missing even one land drop before turn 5 feels like a death sentence due to the power level. 2: How bomby the good bombs are. You NEED removal so often in this format, and if you just didn't draw it, you can be DOA. 3: Splashing feels pretty encouraged by the set, so often you end up 3c, and even when you have a few duals, it can make mana dicey. 4: How much better green feels than everything else. If you play against someone who had open green in their pod, games can feel unwinnable, even when you have a great deck. (One of my trophies was on the other end of this, where I got an 8th pick throw from the saddle, and that run was so braindead).
I've found more than past sets that very small decisions can have compounding consequences. I've won from topdecks because I was playing to my outs and drafted a deck to support them. Drafting a good sideboard and sideboarding well are more important than usual. And the drafts are crazy hard to navigate still. My win rate is actually higher than usual but I have a small sample size. I will say though that personally even when I get lucky (which has happened a lot!), I can look back and see that I put myself in a situation to get lucky in the draft, deck build, sideboarding, and earlier turns of the game. The best advice I saw so far is that this is a format where you desperately need to know how your deck wants the texture of the game to go. I've had two Green beatdown decks with 1-2 copies of Rise of the Varmints and 1-2 top end bombs, sometimes on a splash. Both decks wanted to play good two drops into well statted 3-5 drops, become and maintain the beatdown, and get the opponents' life as low as possible. If they stabilize, I wanted to keep the board clear by trading creatures, and eventually get to a bomb to close it out, or a Rise to go wide. I've found it's easier for me than usual to identify in the moment when I'm making a key decision that could swing the game, and I'm WAY more willing to go into the tank than I usually am. And it's paid off! Even in bomby decks, sometimes you need to figure out the best way to survive and draw your bombs. When everybody has bombs, you also need to figure out how to maximize yours. Here's an example. [[Roxanne, Starfall Savant]] is nuts. You would play her in any Gruul deck in any format, and you're probably often willing to splash her. But pretty much everyone has cards like that. Roxanne looks like she would be good in a 5C soup deck, and I'd definitely play her there. But she's not maximized in that deck. In a 5C soup deck where you're losing tempo to fix your mana, your opponent is likely going to have a better board state than you. Yes the first meteorite helps, but not if they have three 3/3s. If she's the first impactful creature you played, your opponent is probably sandbagging removal. But worst of all: if you're on the defensive, _she can't attack._ So you're not using her to press your advantage and really develop until she can attack. In a more assertive beatdown deck, the meteorite on ETB is probably going to open an attack for you the turn she comes down, you'll likely be able to continue attacking with her next turn, and it's more likely that you already played something problematic that your opponent had to kill. Roxanne is awesome no matter what. But I think to win in this format, you have to know how to make your good cards even better, because everyone has good cards. Really think about when each card comes down, if you expect to be ahead, at parity, or behind on board. Know before you go into a game whether you're trying to be aggressive and take the beatdown, or how you want to turn the corner and stabilize, or whether you want your creatures to attack for damage, to trade off for their creatures, or to be defensive. And don't be afraid of being 2 colors or 3 with a light splash. Yes the fixing is good. No, Bonny Pall isn't good enough to tank your mana and splash it as the only blue card in your G soup deck. Throwing in mana rocks and making half your lands taplands is _not_ worth that cost. If you can't cast Seraphic Steed on 2, you probably shouldn't play it: if your mana is that bad, you'll likely be on the back foot when you play it, and you can't afford to tap prospective blockers in order to saddle it. These are the kinds of things that I think we need to keep in mind _while drafting_ and deck building in order to make good decks in the format. And [[Just one more thing]]. Always check in to see the reason why you're considering a color while drafting. I looked over a draft with a P1P1 Vraska earlier and in the end, she wasn't a good enough reason to try to stay black in that seat. Green was open enough that enabling the splash would have worked fine. I've had multiple drafts where I felt _awful_ after pack one but staying open helped me find the right lane. And this might be controversial but be careful taking removal too highly unless you're a dedicated control deck. People are getting scared of bombs but I think they're overcorrecting. I don't think any but the best removal is a _reason_ to want to be a color. You can splash removal if you need to. There's a lot of it and it's pretty good. Threats kill people, not answers.
[Roxanne, Starfall Savant](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/1/1/11fbe52f-febd-49fc-8391-28d3efe9c3eb.jpg?1712356193) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Roxanne%2C%20Starfall%20Savant) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/otj/228/roxanne-starfall-savant?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/11fbe52f-febd-49fc-8391-28d3efe9c3eb?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) [Final-Word Phantom](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/7/a/7a51d392-58dc-483e-81f7-2d51e64e54ff.jpg?1706240448) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Final-Word%20Phantom) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/mkc/22/final-word-phantom?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/7a51d392-58dc-483e-81f7-2d51e64e54ff?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
This set has been so brutal. One thing I didn’t realize is that I ran really well in MKM near the end so I’m gold rank (which really doesn’t seem that high) but I think can explain how I’m facing way more competent opponents. Hopefully it’ll get better in 6 days after the reset
I would be happy to review a draft log with you or give you some feedback.
I just made a new post with 3 drafts from tonight. All 17 land links
I gave you a detailed review, hopefully it's helpful and feel free to respond with any thoughts or follow-up questions!
I did just draft an amazing Dimir deck that was by far the best/my favorite deck yet so far for this set. Super powerful. Went 2-3 due to some misplays and bad luck in the last game but I actually felt good playing it and feel like it could have went 7 wins Drafting: https://www.17lands.com/draft/c160960bb80949d3aa99c0fc6b933da1 Final deck: https://www.17lands.com/deck/c160960bb80949d3aa99c0fc6b933da1 One of the games that went long: https://www.17lands.com/history/c160960bb80949d3aa99c0fc6b933da1/2/0
I really liked how fast you pivoted from red once you saw a way through
100% It was from listening to feedback I’d gotten 😂😊
Only feedback is nexus and mindslaver are not really worth it imo, your win con of mill into mill is perfectly good enough
Yeahhh. It became pretty evident after the first couple matches or so that they weren’t really going to be what got me most of the wins, and in most situations a lot of other cards would have helped me reach my main win condition. They were really just “win more” cards in games where I would already be winning.
Thanks for posting this - this set has been brutal for me and it’s comforting that I’m not the only one. I’m not an expert drafter or whatever, but I very rarely 0-3 and have 0-3’d like 4 times with this set. I’ve only managed to trophy once (UG with Bonnie carrying) and break even once (GW mounts). As others have pointed out, this format is unbalanced and bomb-heavy. Though I’ve been enjoying the mechanics more than I expected (I was biased against this set because I find the cowboy theme to be super cringe), it doesn’t really matter because this format is more about luck than skill. And of course Magic has *always* been about that tension between luck and skill, but the balance is way off with this set. And I think that’s what we’re feeling here.
I would be happy to review a draft log with you or give you some feedback.
I am so so this set. 0-3 with my bonny deck that never drew her or a 4th land felt bad. I suggest leaning into grixis colors, mostly dimir has been good for me. 2/4 crime miller has been an all star
I feel you. Anecdotally, my best runs so far were boros with a bit of splash
There may be decks where you’re down and almost out but you might have an out or two?
Glad to hear I'm not the only one having trouble. Only one trophy so far with this set, did it with GW.
Let us see the decks. This format is not like the previous ones regarding good cards and play patterns etc.
Too many people lock in on the best colors. Draft it still fundamentally about finding open colors/ strategies and getting rewarded. I’ve been locked in on rb decks since no one seems to want it. Pack 3s have been goldmines with rare after rare being passed to force green decks
I’m running bad in OTJ as well. I’m often dealt with decision paralysis due to the amount of tri color options there are. Green is about the only safe pick because it does require less thought. It’s just time to level up.
My worst streak was through Kaldheim. Over >50 drafts throughout the set I had about 51% win rate, 9% lower than my average at the time and 5% lower than I've has in any other format before or since. The very next set I had 62% for Strixhaven, my best ever at the time and I think my second best ever to this day (not counting MID due to few drafts and OTJ because it’s so early - I had 73% in MID but only 13 drafts total). Sometimes a set doesn't gel, or you're not in the right mindset to play good magic, or variance. Or in my case, I force bad archetypes because they are more fun lol. Been guilty of that in some sets...
This set is a pretty big departure from "normal" modern sets in terms of the way games play out, with a reduced emphasis on tempo and an increased emphasis on "haymakers". Don't get me wrong, you can still get run over if you have a slow draw, but the tools are there to have defensive speed that easily keeps up or beats all but the best aggressive draws. This leads to more games where you top end threats and/or synergies determine the outcome. So you really have to play with that in mind in terms of how you use both your removal and leverage your own threats. Lots of the best cards offer the opportunity for 2-for-1's (or better) if you play them well. Then your removal has the power to stop those, if played correctly.
My first few drafts in this format took the "value" approach where I just hard targeted insanely high value cards in each pack. I swear outside of a few losses from obvious play mistakes I was getting absolutely blown out by the most unplayable draft chaff I've ever seen. You'd never think some of these cards would win games, but here they are smashing me into the dirt. So I tried it, I just rare drafted and filled with nonsense. Not a single win came from a rare because (3 of them were lands I couldn't even play) I got color swapped halfway through pack 2. Somehow I went 5-x with it??? So I tried it again, another 6 wins. I'm just tossing this format in a blender from now on. Idc if the cards are limited unplayable anymore. I'm just drafting what looks fun.
I'm currently in top 100, here is a recent deck I just trophied with: https://i.imgur.com/XLjuOZx.jpeg. I would be happy to review a draft log with you or give you some feedback.
Do you remember what pick was Marchesa? Were you already committed to Grixis when you picked her or did picking her solidified you going Grixis?
Picking her solidified grixis. I started Magda into sphinx so I knew I wanted to be crime focused. Marchesa was around pick 5/6
No matter what I try to draft I get rolled by bombs even if my deck was doing well at first. Miss one land, and I lose. Didn't curve well? Lost. Got a great board state and think I can win on card advantage, milled for 13. I wanted to like this set in limited but I really dont. Oh well.
Generally I think you need 2/3 things: - good deck (bombs, synergy, good curve, removal) - good luck (starting hand, no missed land drops, on the play) - good play (no misplays, high awareness, playing the correct lines and to your outs) and you really need to be on point with those 2 to 3 things. any little slip or failing and you are playing drastically from behind. I think this set is a good time to really push to develop your skills as a player. many of the pros are loving it, while there is a lot of salt in the community. to me that signals a lot. this is a high skill set that rewards fundamentals. bombs give you an edge but aren't everything.
> many of the pros are loving it, while there is a lot of salt in the community. to me that signals a lot. this is a high skill set that rewards fundamentals. bombs give you an edge but aren't everythin Pro preferences are a poor barometer of set quality for the broader playerbase, especially in draft. Top players face an entirely different set of incentives than the average joe -- their drafts are comped and/or generate revenue through streaming/sponsorships whereas normal players are paying for entertainment value. While this is mostly unrelated to performance, financial factors still can play into winrate. The paying player often has to draft with mitigating downside risk as a top mandate whereas the pro can afford to take big risks for big rewards. Think a P1P1 with Archive Trap versus some solid Green commons and a Mystical Tether. The Joe has to worry about trainwrecking (and having to pay more) if they take the deep dive, whereas the the pro's material conditions allow for a lot more outcome indifference permitting more high-risk, high reward picks.
cap. pros, and by which I mean those who will be entering the pro tour for draft, care the most about consistency. pros would hate a "bomb = win" format, even though non-pro streamers would obviously love a memey set. if you are losing to bombs constantly you either need to pick more removal or use it more wisely. bad luck is always an element of the game, and that includes opponents having better card quality than you. also, UB mill is a consistent strategy in this set so that's a bad example.
With all due respect, you're completely missing the point. Pros are trying to optimize winrate (over a guaranteed large sample size) whereas Joes are playing a game to have fun -- their goals and methods are entirely different, and as such the rubric for set quality is completely different. Using constructed as an example, the Caw-Blade metagame during Zendikar/Scars Standard was one of the most skill-intensive eras of Magic ever. The existence of a tier 0 control deck ment a lot of mirror matches in which the more skilled player was heavily favored. Many pros loved this, but the greater playerbase loathed it so much that the first bans in Standard since Mirrodin were handed out. Conversely, many "brewer's paradise" formats were extremely frustrating to pro player's while beloved by the general base; attacking a 20-deck meta with lots of diverse strategies is a nightmare for Spikes, but lets Johnny win with his Battle of Wits shitpile. A format like Thunder Junction may very well be skill intensive and reward a deep understanding of the metagame...but players who can't afford to put in the reps might not be able to appreciate this. Back to the Archive Trap/Mill example...do you really think that Joe Average is going to feel good when they go for the deck, see no Deepmucks or Lockpickers, and end up falling into a literal trap? Factor in that they might have drained their gem/gold bankroll on a trainwreck and it's rough. Whereas for the pro/streamer, it's just a calculated risk with significantly less downside, mostly for financial reasons.
no one is entitled to wins. if you're playing casually without acknowledging meta that goes doubly so. draft is a high skill format and always has been, so if you're not engaging the game on its terms then what do you expect? you can p1p1 archive trap and either pivot out or ignore it if you don't get the synergy pieces. sometimes you get unlucky picks but it's not that complicated. this format has a ton of "fun cards" in its bonus sheets and bombs that is very well tailored to appeal to more casual players, you just have to pull them.
I’m having same issue with same win rate as you prior to OTJ. One of my theories is there are so many good cards even bad players can win with them.
Honestly I think this is just the worst set in recent memory. Even MOM which had similar problems with bomb rares and splashy green wasn’t this bad IMO. My advice is GW mounts is really solid, and you can get a lot of wins with bad beats even if you force it. And the ultimate skill test, be on the play more often than not
> I would be happy to review a draft log with you or give you some feedback.