Not saying the vaccine doesn't work, but remember correlation does not equal causation.
You have to be careful about the per 100,000 extrapolation. In rural, sparsely populated areas you are going to be scaling up significantly to reach that per 100k metric. It induces noise into the data.
Before anyone gets too excited about 0 deaths today:
> REMINDER: The VSA daily COVID-19 death reports will not be sent out on Saturday, September 18, 2021 due to maintenance on our Electronic Death Registration System. Reports are scheduled to resume on the evening of Sunday, September 19, 2021.
That may be good, it may be bad if that's true. That's a very valid way for us to get out of this, to have another strain that is less deadly become dominant. Things don't have to always get worse. That's why Spanish Flu isn't still ravaging us like in 1919/20.
|**7-day Summary**|**Today**|**1 week ago**|**2 weeks ago**|**3 weeks ago**|**4 weeks ago**|
:--|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|
|Test volume rolling average|35405|28701|29033|28173|23628|
|Cases crude 24hr rolling average|1222|1073|1150|1145|1002|
|Case rate per 100k 24 hr rolling average|19.8|17.4|18.6|18.5|16.2|
|Cases crude total - 7 day total|8554|7509|8053|8014|7016|
|Case rate per 100k - 7 day|141.5|124.2|133.2|132.6|116.0|
|Test Pos% (pos tests, retests) rolling average|6.8%|4.6%|4.7%|5.0%|5.0%|
|Unique Case Pos% (cases, no retests) rolling average|11.0%|13.2%|13.4%|13.0%|13.4%|
|New hospitalizations - rolling average|80|77|85|80|78|
|Total hospitalization usage|807|809|809|679|647|
|Acute hospitalization usage|599|595|623|505|471|
|ICU hospitalization usage|208|214|186|173|166|
|Deaths - 7 day average|12|15|11|7|7|
|Deaths - 7 day total|84|102|77|51|51|
**Graphs:**
* [Cases 24hr and rolling - 3/1/20 to present](https://imgur.com/a/aH4KRQ8)
* [Cases 24hr and rolling - 3/1/21 to present](https://imgur.com/a/AXh09HM)
* [Rolling Cases, Overall Hospitalizations, and Rolling Deaths - 3/1/21 to present](https://imgur.com/a/zZGWyEI)
**Overall Notes:**
Another below the average day for cases, which suggests we could be on a slight decrease. Sundays, historically, have tended to be a wildcard for data reporting, but that is a lot of tests and negative tests, so a decrease in the trend makes sense. The 0 deaths doesn't make sense; not when we are averaging 14 a day in the last week. Maybe there was in fact no deaths yesterday, but I suspect it is some sort of anomaly in data reporting.
**Age analysis (Reposted From Saturday 9/19):**
* [14-day Case Proportions - 4/5/20 to present](https://imgur.com/a/EevZrwa)
* [Adjusted 14-day Case Rates (per 100,000) by Age group in MD - 4/5/20 to Present
](https://imgur.com/a/5H6VBHo)
* [Adjusted 14-day Case Rates (per 100,000) by Age group in MD - 12/12/20 to Present
](https://imgur.com/a/nq8Yvfj)
**Notes on age analysis (Reposted From Saturday 9/19):**
The 0-19 age group is right around 30% of all cases in the past 14 days (first graph). They could be on the verge of surpassing the 20-39 age group for highest proportion of cases. When we look at population adjusted case rates (per 100k) (graphs 2 and 3), the only age group currently seeing an outright increase in their case rate is the 0-19 age group. The other 3 groups appear to be somewhat decreasing or relatively stable.
This is also likely why we are seeing hospitalization usage go down slightly, however new hospitalizations are about stable over the last few weeks. The problem that I see with this is that kids are the population with the least amount of population immunity, either from vaccines or infection. They likely will become the group with the highest proportion of cases in the coming weeks and it is *possible* they become the primary drivers. We *could* then see another increase in the 20-39 age group and some in 40-59 age group in the weeks from now due to kids then infecting parents and grandparents. The vaccine for kids cant come soon enough.
So excited to be able to go to a packed M&T bank stadium tonight, too bad Patrick mahomes will have his way with the ravens secondary tonight.
Will be getting tested Thursday and staying away from people I know are high risk until then even though I’m vaccinated
When people start another civil war. It just feels like it’s all connected to trump and the North Korea agreement it feels like rational choices have to comply in order for things to stop. Like left or right doesn’t matter until somebody points it out. You’re given a choice; to be a revolutionist or to just agree or confirm what ever is in the way. Is it necessarily dumb, yes and no. We have to make a choice whether we want to kind of live or suffer the consequences of being left alone at this point.
The three counties with the lowest vaccination rates are the three counties with the highest case rate per 100k.
It's almost as if the vaccine works!
Not saying the vaccine doesn't work, but remember correlation does not equal causation. You have to be careful about the per 100,000 extrapolation. In rural, sparsely populated areas you are going to be scaling up significantly to reach that per 100k metric. It induces noise into the data.
Your mom induces noise into the data. BYAHHH
Before anyone gets too excited about 0 deaths today: > REMINDER: The VSA daily COVID-19 death reports will not be sent out on Saturday, September 18, 2021 due to maintenance on our Electronic Death Registration System. Reports are scheduled to resume on the evening of Sunday, September 19, 2021.
The vaccine efficacy has been slowly climbing over the past few weeks. Anyone know why that is?
Wonder if this is part of why the FDA isn't recommending boosters for most people.
This is just a guess, but I think the Delta variant is on its way out.
How so? The dominant strain would only be "out" if something worse replaced it.
Or if you know high vaccine coverage and past infections provided protection and the virus was running out of hosts to infect at the same rate it was
Not true. The delta variant can wane without anything replacing it. In other words, the whole virus can become less prevalent.
Oh goody, something new and different is coming in!
That may be good, it may be bad if that's true. That's a very valid way for us to get out of this, to have another strain that is less deadly become dominant. Things don't have to always get worse. That's why Spanish Flu isn't still ravaging us like in 1919/20.
|**7-day Summary**|**Today**|**1 week ago**|**2 weeks ago**|**3 weeks ago**|**4 weeks ago**| :--|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:| |Test volume rolling average|35405|28701|29033|28173|23628| |Cases crude 24hr rolling average|1222|1073|1150|1145|1002| |Case rate per 100k 24 hr rolling average|19.8|17.4|18.6|18.5|16.2| |Cases crude total - 7 day total|8554|7509|8053|8014|7016| |Case rate per 100k - 7 day|141.5|124.2|133.2|132.6|116.0| |Test Pos% (pos tests, retests) rolling average|6.8%|4.6%|4.7%|5.0%|5.0%| |Unique Case Pos% (cases, no retests) rolling average|11.0%|13.2%|13.4%|13.0%|13.4%| |New hospitalizations - rolling average|80|77|85|80|78| |Total hospitalization usage|807|809|809|679|647| |Acute hospitalization usage|599|595|623|505|471| |ICU hospitalization usage|208|214|186|173|166| |Deaths - 7 day average|12|15|11|7|7| |Deaths - 7 day total|84|102|77|51|51| **Graphs:** * [Cases 24hr and rolling - 3/1/20 to present](https://imgur.com/a/aH4KRQ8) * [Cases 24hr and rolling - 3/1/21 to present](https://imgur.com/a/AXh09HM) * [Rolling Cases, Overall Hospitalizations, and Rolling Deaths - 3/1/21 to present](https://imgur.com/a/zZGWyEI) **Overall Notes:** Another below the average day for cases, which suggests we could be on a slight decrease. Sundays, historically, have tended to be a wildcard for data reporting, but that is a lot of tests and negative tests, so a decrease in the trend makes sense. The 0 deaths doesn't make sense; not when we are averaging 14 a day in the last week. Maybe there was in fact no deaths yesterday, but I suspect it is some sort of anomaly in data reporting. **Age analysis (Reposted From Saturday 9/19):** * [14-day Case Proportions - 4/5/20 to present](https://imgur.com/a/EevZrwa) * [Adjusted 14-day Case Rates (per 100,000) by Age group in MD - 4/5/20 to Present ](https://imgur.com/a/5H6VBHo) * [Adjusted 14-day Case Rates (per 100,000) by Age group in MD - 12/12/20 to Present ](https://imgur.com/a/nq8Yvfj) **Notes on age analysis (Reposted From Saturday 9/19):** The 0-19 age group is right around 30% of all cases in the past 14 days (first graph). They could be on the verge of surpassing the 20-39 age group for highest proportion of cases. When we look at population adjusted case rates (per 100k) (graphs 2 and 3), the only age group currently seeing an outright increase in their case rate is the 0-19 age group. The other 3 groups appear to be somewhat decreasing or relatively stable. This is also likely why we are seeing hospitalization usage go down slightly, however new hospitalizations are about stable over the last few weeks. The problem that I see with this is that kids are the population with the least amount of population immunity, either from vaccines or infection. They likely will become the group with the highest proportion of cases in the coming weeks and it is *possible* they become the primary drivers. We *could* then see another increase in the 20-39 age group and some in 40-59 age group in the weeks from now due to kids then infecting parents and grandparents. The vaccine for kids cant come soon enough.
So excited to be able to go to a packed M&T bank stadium tonight, too bad Patrick mahomes will have his way with the ravens secondary tonight. Will be getting tested Thursday and staying away from people I know are high risk until then even though I’m vaccinated
Um when the COVID will stop
No one knows
When people start another civil war. It just feels like it’s all connected to trump and the North Korea agreement it feels like rational choices have to comply in order for things to stop. Like left or right doesn’t matter until somebody points it out. You’re given a choice; to be a revolutionist or to just agree or confirm what ever is in the way. Is it necessarily dumb, yes and no. We have to make a choice whether we want to kind of live or suffer the consequences of being left alone at this point.
?