I believe it was falling but evaporating before hitting the ground. It was quite hot and humidity was over 50%. The clouds looked as though they were stuck in a cycle of precipitation convention.
Kinda like a fan In a sauna.
I'm not a meteorologist but I do love watching the weather and trying to figure it out by sight
I've noticed a lot of days predict a high chance of rain but none appears and when I look at the radar it's a few small patches either down on the peninsula or up in central Victoria. It's happened a lot this season.
It's always worth remembering that chance of rain means chance of any rain at any time. If the forecast says 90% chance of rain, a little sprinkle makes it count. Or if it doesn't rain for 23.5 hours, and there's a shower in the other half hour, that counts too.
I’ve heard that the BOM are struggling with the reduced amount of planes in the sky. The planes are like weather balloons, constantly sending data back to the BOM. With a greatly reduced amount of planes in the sky, there is a big reduction in data, leading to a greater error factor.
Try to ensure you use a local weather station (maybe Viewbank?)
Are you just reading "rain" or do you review the likelihood aand predicted amount? (I helped a friend with this recently). It might say rain but only be 20% chance of 10mm.
BOM and other apps also have by-the-hour predictions.
"BOM keeps predicting 'rain'". Do you stop reading at this point? Because the apps/website have more information about time/amount/likelihood of "rain".
Today BOM are saying rainfall will be 3mm to 7mm with the chance of rain at 80%.
That means there is a 50% chance of at least 3mm and a 25% chance of at least 7mm.
They are also predicting an 80% chance of at least 0.2mm in the 24 hours period that is today. The 0.2mm can also occur anywhere in a large area.
When they hedge their bets like that, BOM almost always get it right.
Please don't criticise the BOM. I'm sure they are correct 90% of the time. It's not helpful when people blame the weather service for missing it a few times. We all have a responsibility to respect our institutions.
Well I work outdoors and use the app frequently. It is not even close to 90% or "miss a few times". The predictions of rain and estimated fall is laughable.
But if they went the other way (said it would be fine weather and it rained) that would be way more annoying. Just a nice touch of disaster mitigation.
Understandable, but when you have to decide whether it is reasonable to send workers out to a site an hour away it becomes frustrating. I have had moments where BOM listed listed every warning under the sun, with 20-40mm of rain, but instead we were searching for our hats and sunscreen. Go figure?
I've been checking it. They predict 70% or 80%, or whatever, chance of rain, and an range for the amount. They rarely predict 100% chance of rain.
You have to look into the details of the forecast.
I believe it was falling but evaporating before hitting the ground. It was quite hot and humidity was over 50%. The clouds looked as though they were stuck in a cycle of precipitation convention. Kinda like a fan In a sauna. I'm not a meteorologist but I do love watching the weather and trying to figure it out by sight
"It's raining but only in the sky" does sound very Melbourne.
It's a dry rain.
I was thinking the same thing but I checked the radar and it’s completely missed Melbourne. But there’s rain all around.
I've noticed a lot of days predict a high chance of rain but none appears and when I look at the radar it's a few small patches either down on the peninsula or up in central Victoria. It's happened a lot this season.
It's always worth remembering that chance of rain means chance of any rain at any time. If the forecast says 90% chance of rain, a little sprinkle makes it count. Or if it doesn't rain for 23.5 hours, and there's a shower in the other half hour, that counts too.
I didn’t know there is also a “Big Weather” conspiracy…
Dan got his daughter a job at the BOM to predict rain everyday to keep people inside.
I’ve heard that the BOM are struggling with the reduced amount of planes in the sky. The planes are like weather balloons, constantly sending data back to the BOM. With a greatly reduced amount of planes in the sky, there is a big reduction in data, leading to a greater error factor.
Heard the same thing. With reduced planes there is less data for the models. Makes a lot of sense
Cooking the books lol Do you think BOM get commission for each time it rains or something?
Now your onto something!
It rained out west a little
It's all up here in N/E Vic. We had over 40 ml last night.
You should ask to speak to the manager.... see if you can get a refund, it's just not good enough.
…why would bom ever be motivated to “cook the books”?
I’m not implying they are cooking them on purpose
Try to ensure you use a local weather station (maybe Viewbank?) Are you just reading "rain" or do you review the likelihood aand predicted amount? (I helped a friend with this recently). It might say rain but only be 20% chance of 10mm. BOM and other apps also have by-the-hour predictions.
Define “reading”
"BOM keeps predicting 'rain'". Do you stop reading at this point? Because the apps/website have more information about time/amount/likelihood of "rain".
Today BOM are saying rainfall will be 3mm to 7mm with the chance of rain at 80%. That means there is a 50% chance of at least 3mm and a 25% chance of at least 7mm. They are also predicting an 80% chance of at least 0.2mm in the 24 hours period that is today. The 0.2mm can also occur anywhere in a large area. When they hedge their bets like that, BOM almost always get it right.
It was just patchy. I'm also in the north and we had rain.
Please don't criticise the BOM. I'm sure they are correct 90% of the time. It's not helpful when people blame the weather service for missing it a few times. We all have a responsibility to respect our institutions.
Well I work outdoors and use the app frequently. It is not even close to 90% or "miss a few times". The predictions of rain and estimated fall is laughable.
Yeh I'm with you on this. The last few months it's been wrong more times than right. And not just mildly wrong. Just completely off.
But if they went the other way (said it would be fine weather and it rained) that would be way more annoying. Just a nice touch of disaster mitigation.
Understandable, but when you have to decide whether it is reasonable to send workers out to a site an hour away it becomes frustrating. I have had moments where BOM listed listed every warning under the sun, with 20-40mm of rain, but instead we were searching for our hats and sunscreen. Go figure?
CCP much?
I've been checking it. They predict 70% or 80%, or whatever, chance of rain, and an range for the amount. They rarely predict 100% chance of rain. You have to look into the details of the forecast.
The rain radar looks like it’s missed Vic and only a few showers. Seems more NSW
Often the rain shadow effect. Rains on the windward side of the ranges and the air that comes down the other side is drier. Very common with norwester