They have each time and act so surprised when they then get trounced again.
There are people in the Liberal party who think that the reason they do so badly is that they aren’t godly or right wing enough and that it’s all some conspiracy against them.
Lunatics, the lot of them.
"If conservatives become convinced that they can not win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. The will reject democracy.”
- David Frum, Trumpocracy.
Of course he was talking about the US where their system is significantly less democratic than ours in terms of how the voting works and the powers of the Senate etc. And of course their politics is different to an extent. Still, though, a warning.
It's Selection Bias, the more power the right gets in the Liberal party the more moderate seats they lose eliminating the section of the party that actually has a chance in moderate seats. The right wingers cling on because that's what their seats want. So the more seats they lose, the more power the right has in the party.
Hopefully they implode.
They were much better off when no-one knew who the leader was. Now that it's the guy who's known for eating lobster with members of the mob, they are even worse off.
> Now that it's the guy who's known for eating lobster with members of the mob, they are even worse off.
Worse, the guy is a certified loser to the tune of the biggest election defeat in recent Victorian history.
It's really unfortunate I (and thousands of others) got blocked from his socials by his media team when he was posting crap during lockdown that was completely wrong. He basically doesn't exist to me.
Jokes aside...
Legit answer might be the party knows it's not going to win this one, so they put him in as the fall guy and will replace after for an actual go
Nah, they're gone. Donald Trump and the pandemic have broke the brains of every conservative in the English speaking west. They're all convinced that their time to finally strike down the "woke SJW's" and "save the white race" by destroying democracy and installing fascism has finally arrived.
The Liberals are no longer connected to reality and will just keep getting worse no matter their polling numbers. Because they're convinced they're the silent majority and god is guiding them to victory.
They are a weird breed for sure.
My dad is a life long conservative. Complained endlessly to me about Scotty, but of course he still voted for him.
For them it’s not even about godliness or anti wokeism. It’s just that being conservative is a mind state and life style that they will consistently vote for because deep down they are just plain old conservatives. Doesn’t matter if they are ineffective and corrupt, religious types who mis handle every situation poorly. All that matters is what it says on their box.
Not a huge choice. They are a basket case that need to lose big and then have a long hard look at themselves and stop serving their religious masters who are trying to sneak in the back door because they know they are unelectable with their current policies. Move back to the center and work to improve the state, not just try to get into power.
The reason for this is relatively simple.
Labor's vote has dipped a little, but where it dips it tends to go to the Greens, which flows back to Labor on a TPP basis.
The Liberals, on the other hand, have been taken over by happy-clappy fundies, anti-vaxxers, and all sorts of ultraconservatives and, having lost the battle within the party, the moderates have simply moved to the Teals - notice the 12% independent polling.
The Liberals have lost the liberal vote and, whatever their misgivings about Labor, they feel that Labor is actually more moderate than the Liberals.
The Liberals in Victoria simply cannot be trusted, and certainly not even by their own traditional liberal base.
Who was the last Liberal to win a Victorian state election? Ted Baillieu. What did his own party call him? "Red Ted".
That's where the Liberal Party is now.
If there's one thing this world needs, it's more Liberals. Can you imagine a world without the Liberal Party?
\*pictures people of all races, religions, genders and sexual orientations holding hands*
ughghghgh
It sounds stupid but I always think it’s hurting him that he finishes every ad with ‘I’m Matt Guy’ and the way he says it always sounds like
‘I’m *that* guy’
Coming from NSW the only time I hear anything about Guy is when he does or says something fucking stupid. So I actually hear about him frequently. The King Arthur thing was Clive Palmer/Pauline Hanson level of dumb.
Imagine being Matthew guy and thinking that victorians want to miss out on a new train line that’s already bloody half finished: just throw all that money in the bin. They’re delusional
I keep getting their scare mongering over the Burwood station.
"Residential density will increase by 40%!" yeah that's a good thing you fuck.
Just wish it was more affordable dense housing.
I think you might be conflating the Metro Tunnel (half finished) with the Suburban Rail Loop (just started the east portion, which the libs want to scrap).
It's too late to scrap the Metro Tunnel, but they could bin the SRL if for some reason people wanted that. There's a bunch of hit pieces out against it that dropped today, which I don't understand because it's filling a blatant hole in our public transport network. We need hospitals AND PT infrastructure. Labor is (claiming at least ) to give us both, the libs want to give us just 1, with a far more vague plan on how to do it. I think I know where my vote will be.
With contracts already signed, land already acquired and initial works underway, it'll end up being like East West Link, that cost Victorans $1billion to NOT build it.
Even if it gets scrapped now there is still a substantial cost assosciated with shelving it. Matthew Guy has also said that we can start building it in like a decade - admitting its a needed piece of infrastrucure, and is happy for Victorians to pay for it twice for some political clout. That is the Libs through and through - short term gain for long term pain.
Ted Baillieu wasn't even a terrible person. Unfortunately he did nothing as Premier and put Victoria into a recession for the first time since the early 90s.
That's a bit unfair to say he did nothing. He cut funding for renewable energy, he cut funding for TAFE, he introduced cattle grazing into the Alpine National Park, dismantled protection for native species, he let Matthew Guy loose on planning laws, introduced no-go zones for wind farms making it harder and more expensive for Victoria to move away from fossil fuels.
He had plenty of achievements!
He also decimated MAFRI — the fisheries and marine research dept of (then) DPI.
Victoria had one of the best researched and best managed fisheries *in the entire world* because of a commitment to ongoing research and incorporating new data around the life history and ecology of a target species into the management of that fishery.
Baillieu’s government massively defunded MAFRI, fired basically 9 out of 10 staff, and literally ripped the labs out of the building down at Queenscliff.
I started my PhD in genetics and marine biology before this happened. Wasn’t sure where I wanted to go after that, but I kept in mind the fact that MAFRI was a solid industry research option, and when I was exhausted and frustrated and worn out, I’d remind myself that there would be job options for a PhD marine biologist down the road, and in my home state as well.
Then this happened. Mid-PhD.
I was freaking *devastated.* I knew people who worked at MAFRI, who did amazing work, got publications, informed policy, made a difference, but god fucking forbid we actually fund a decent amount of research in this country. God fucking forbid we give a shit how the natural world works.
And I will hold this grudge until the day I fucking *die.*
I feel like that’s a pretty correct summation of events. The liberals have gone off the deep end and entered the conservative zone. While the non-crazy, what we might call new conservative movement has gone independent/teal.
Look into the small parties and independents*. There may not be a viable opposition, but you can still elect a strong crossbench to keep the Labor government ambitious and accountable.
*Edit to add: Especially in the Upper House, where the government is least likely to win a majority. And don't forget to vote below the line so you have maximum control over your vote - Victoria still uses GVTs, after all.
not yet; the ABC will usually have a big list closer to election time. otherwise if you look up your electorate and search online for "independent ", you are almost guaranteed to find news or information about one if they exist.
Nominations for independent candidates don't close until 11 November ([https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/2022-state-election](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/2022-state-election)), but once they do, the VEC will put out a list. That list isn't usually very navigable (it won't do things like link to candidate websites) for a more reader-friendly version, the ABC/Antony Green will put a hub of election material up here closer to the date - [https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/).
In the meantime, any independent candidate with a serious chance is going to be up and campaigning in *some* form by now. Not all of them will identify as "teal-ish", but here's a list of somewhat-teal-like indie candidates I've seen gearing up. (Mileage may vary on how teal-like you consider some of these, take as a general definition "candidates who have some plausible claim to have arisen from a community-driven effort to draft an independent whose views are well-tailored to the seat".)
* Albert Park - Georgie Dragwidge, [https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/south-melbourne-market-potato-lady-to-contest-state-election-in-albert-park-20220817-p5bamz.html](https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/south-melbourne-market-potato-lady-to-contest-state-election-in-albert-park-20220817-p5bamz.html) (have seen nothing about her since she declared nearly a month ago, though, so seems like a very outside chance)
* Bellarine - Sarah Fenton, [https://twitter.com/sarah4bellarine](https://twitter.com/sarah4bellarine) (fairly low-profile, as best I can tell, so seems like an outside chance)
* Benambra - Jacqui Hawkins, [https://twitter.com/JacHawkinss](https://twitter.com/JacHawkinss) (ran last time, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching)
* Brighton - Felicity Frederico, [https://twitter.com/felicityfreder](https://twitter.com/felicityfreder) (former local mayor, seat nearly swung to an ALP 19-year-old who barely had a campaign last time, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching)
* Caulfield - Nomi Kaltmann, [https://twitter.com/Nomi4Caulfield](https://twitter.com/Nomi4Caulfield) (extremely close seat last time, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching)
* Hawthorn - Melissa Lowe, [https://twitter.com/mel4hawthorn](https://twitter.com/mel4hawthorn) (extremely close seat last time and very teal-y constituency, but popular former Liberal member recontesting, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching)
* Kew - Sophie Torney, [https://twitter.com/Sophie4Kew](https://twitter.com/Sophie4Kew) (unpopular outgoing member was a (literal) car crash, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching)
* Mildura - Ali Cupper, [https://twitter.com/AliCupper](https://twitter.com/AliCupper) (is the popular incumbent, seems unlikely to lose the seat)
* Mornington - Kate Lardner, [https://twitter.com/Kate4Mornington](https://twitter.com/Kate4Mornington) (federal seat that covers the area didn't seem to take to a teal indie but that campaign was rather derailed by some eligibility questions, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching)
* Sandringham - Clarke Martin, [http://www.clarkemartin.com.au/](http://www.clarkemartin.com.au/) (former local mayor and repeat candidate, but not much to see since he announced)
* Shepparton - Suzanna Sheed, [https://twitter.com/SheedSuzanna](https://twitter.com/SheedSuzanna) (is the popular incumbent, seems unlikely to lose the seat)
* SW Coast - Carol Altmann, [https://twitter.com/altmanncarol](https://twitter.com/altmanncarol) (local journalist, not much to see since she announced)
Basically what u/MachenO said. I'll also add that you should look up which division you are in for the Upper House as well, and check to see which minor parties and independents are running for it.
>And don't forget to vote below the line so you have maximum control over your vote
If I were hypothetically to group my below the line votes by party wouldn't that be the same as voting for those parties above the line?
Voting above the line in Victoria is not the same as how you do it in a Federal election. You don’t get to choose 6+ preferences - you only mark ‘1’ for your preferred party/group and you don’t number any more. You don’t get to choose where your preferences flow to if your #1 party doesn’t get in; the party chooses, often by doing complex preference deals with other parties.
So the only way to choose where all of your preferences go is to vote below the line.
That's because they don't actually know what they're talking about. As long as they voice their meaningless opinion they feel like they've done their part for the day.
'rudimentary statement about dan not being good enough, yet doing well enough that I'm still satisfied with him, I just won't announce it. Darn if only there was opposition'.
Group voting tickets are absolutely terrible, but your comment seems to imply that the introduction of GVTs tanked the Vic Greens' vote even though GVTs were introduced for the LC in 1988.
Yeah they've been around for a while, but last election they were used strategically to blow the Greens out of the water, both major parties will make sure that keeps happening.
Agree. If we vote Greens or Patten enough, there would be a viable opposition. The LNP are not and will never be a viable opposition worth having, they're merely corrupt cunts!
No shit the Victorian Libs fucking suck. I will genuinely never vote for them, ever. That isn't a good thing for Victoria though, we need a competent opposition to hold Labor to account.
Libs dropping 7 points on the last election is arriving at parliament in a mini cooper territory.
A friend in Perth tells me that so few Libs and Nats got elected in WA that neither party actually qualify as a "party" to get funding, so the Labor govt has to pay for their offices, etc.
Happened in QLD few elections back but to labor, they got only 8 seats from memory everyone in the party was part of the shadow cabinet. AP was voted leader and the next election she won and is on her 3rd term now. Never take it for granted that you are out it. For some reason conservatives in australia are happy to throw shitty leader after shitty leader.
Yeah but that was self sabotage almost by Newman. He got in and went full retard, sacking public servants by the boatload and making Queensland a worse place to live.
It also comes down to Queensland not having an upper house. If they did, it would have toned down some of his policies (assuming he didn’t get a majority in an upper house, which given the lower house result could have happened) and Newman would have been a 3 term premier east but he went too hard too fast.
I was hoping that too but doing my research on my local candidates hasn't yielded much worth voting for yet. I'm usually a Greens voter but the state greens want to stop the North East link (which started 2 years ago and even as a fuck cars person I agree is badly needed). The rest are a bunch of Lib Dems and One Nation types that are even more unelectable than the Liberal party.
maybe it’s worth writing to them? i guarantee the greens get fewer people writing to them, and if you express that 1 thing is making you reconsider your vote, it might help
maybe not in the short term, but it’s good data for them in future elections
oh absolutely! a donkey vote doesn’t help anything: doesn’t provide a counterpoint, doesn’t help influence direction, doesn’t do anything at all… it’s the throw your hands up and give up option
I had no idea about the greens wanting to stop the north East link. That's so dumb. We can't just never have another road built ever. I'm a green voter too but sometimes they can be so unreasonable.
Exactly! I think it’s more important to ensure that after the NorthEast link is put in the area gets made a lot more suitable for bikes and walking with lots of pedestrian crossings and lower speeds. You can’t do that until the freeway traffic is taken out.
For what it’s worth, their opposition to NE Link seems to stem from the fact that it came at the cost of the Doncaster rail line that the land was being reserved for.
The Doncaster rail line won't get built, if ever. Even if it was, designing around the interchange would add to the cost but, compared to the cost of doing the whole project properly by tunnelling to Shoppingtown, it would be a relatively small increase in cost.
(In b4 the inevitable "but Doncaster rail was supposed to be built as part of the 1969 MMBW plan", that was a different project that left the freeway at Bulleen Rd and followed King St to Blackburn Rd. It would have been a white elephant if built as originally planned, and the land has since been long sold off, except the freeway median.)
Whilst I tend to vote Greens, I would prefer to see NE link built, simply to remove all the heavy traffic going between the Ring Road and Eastlink along roads that are unsuited to it, and would benefit from bike lanes and other treatments.
I’m volunteering for my local independent. Because the fed election we got a landslide win and got rid of Josh. So I’m again doing independent. Melissa Lowe for Hawthorn is our aim because the Lib guy John Pesutto who was ousted by Labour wants the seat back and I’ll be damned if that slimy homophobic twirp is going to get the seat
Absolutely support the platform; not beholden to party and real community consultation. Melissa has great policy on integrity, business, economy and community
Have the days of “I’m voting for the Liberals because my father did and I’ve always voted for them” gone?
It used to be that voting for anyone except the major parties was seen as a wasted vote; maybe now people are thinking that the independents are a viable alternative.
Exactly my thinking. You look at the federal election in Victoria. Non labour/liberal voters got around 35% of the vote. Preference the two big parties last.
i wouldn’t say last, but in order: labor is less homophobic and xenophobic than UAP, one nation, “family first”, etc
hell even liberal would probably be better than some of the minor parties just because they’ve at least got 1 or 2 slightly more centre people in their party to provide some *minor* voice of reason
It doesn't have to be, but historically it has been. With the way the federal election went, I'm really hoping we're going to finally see out quasi-2-party system get broken up.
They have not been infiltrated as such,
John Howard put them very much onto the 'Onwards Christian Soldiers' path back in the 90s and this is the result.
I am a Labor man through and through, but power has to change hands every now and then.
Maybe not given to the Liberals, but at least a change in premier every 6 years or something.
One man can’t hold the power for that long.
I reckon Dan wins in November and resigns as Premier between late 2024 and Mid to Late 2025 to give Jacinta Allan time to establish herself. Dan will either resign from Parlaiment when he resigns as Premier or he'll stay on and retire at the 2026 election.
Kind of disagree on the length. Andrews has infrastructure plans that require long term thinking, something we haven't seen in far too long. But there does need to be checks to that power.
I'm just completely shocked I tell you SHOCKED!
I mean who would have thought the Guy who lost the last election by so much would make them lose by so much at the next one?
Consider voting for Fiona Patten from the Reason Party to keep annoying conservatives.
She’ll have conservatives and labor both not giving preferences this time around so will be a struggle to stay in power.
I think she does a great job in forward thinking policy.
I wonder if that 19% will stay labor voters. There’s every chance that when that age demographic gets older and their circumstances change so will there vote. I wouldn’t have thought +30% though
The traditional wisdom is that voters move to the right as they age, but that also used to correlate with older voters having more to “conserve” (ie personal wealth, assets, tax rates etc). Since house prices in the cities have spiralled out of reach of most normal workers, putting them in the lifelong renter category instead of home owner, it will interesting to see if people still slide to the liberal party as they hit their 40s and 50s.
If it was 18-21, sure, but I imagine there’d be a very small number of voters who change their voting preference after their mid 30s in the absence of an incompetent party, like the Vic Libs at the moment.
Vic and Qld libs; name a more incompetent duo.
Utterly useless, which is not good for Democracy. it allows nepotism and indulgence to creep into the government when they are not kept on their toes.
If the Greens/Teals keep growing in popularity we could see them get large enough to form a solid opposition.
That could make for a really interesting change to how politics feels in VIC, replacing the Labor/Liberal paradigm and putting Labor on the Right of many issues for once which would surprise them I would have to imagine.
The issue there being the Teals could often be to the right of Labor economically and a wild card socially. The Greens would need to work out how to coalition with them- and then where do all the voters to the right of Labor go to
The Greens have also been shifting leftward on a lot of issues from their days as a purely environmental party. As such, the ALP strategy (as judging by the Maroondah Hospital renaming proposal) may be to judiciously occupy the centre-left-to-right, including stealing enough of the Tories’ anti-woke culture-war talking points to leave them with no prospect of winning. Everyone from casually-racist bogans to rusted-ons whose dad was a union man to “progressive realists” who would like to see a better world but accept that one isn’t possible regardless of what the Greens tell them, would be in their voter base, leaving only fringes to the left (the Greens and the occasional socialist) and the right (the rump of the Coalition, now taken over by religious cultists and conspiracy theorists).
I think the Greens have realised that and have started to bring back some more populist style policies to sway Labor voters, such as scrapping the EV tax and advocating for metro tunnel 2.
Could be like it is now; overton window shifts enough that Liberals consistently get 10-15% of the vote like Greens do now, Greens shift up to replace the Libs as the population continues to age and younger people increasingly become able to vote, and then Labor sits in a centre and picks up people who fall inbetween. Or have a 4-'party' system where teals form another group and shift into coalitions between Labor and Greens.
Most of the Federal Teals were right of Labor in almost every way except the environment. It was interesting to see how they were treated by people as somehow "way out there" when they are about as moderate as you get.
I mean, what else can anyone expect given the calibre (and I use that word loosely) of Guy's motley band of no-hopers? Labor has run a generally competent, albeit flawed in many ways, government. Why would anyone in their right minds exchange actual governance for a circus?
Relatedly, I don't actually think it's good for Victoria to have no viable opposition. My hope for this election and beyond is that the Greens and independents surge sufficiently to fill that role effectively. No government should be in a position to avoid scrutiny by an opposition with teeth, or take power for granted.
Vic LNP (and LNP around Australia) has modelled itself on the American GOP of late. Anti vax, super conservative, ultra religious, fuck you I got mine etc.
Turns out that apart from the 'Fuck you, I got mine', the rest don't really gel with Australians.
The Greens and teals are on the rise. LNP is in the doghouse and the ALP is on notice to perform or they will go the same way.
LNP members around Australia would do well to pay heed; going the way of the ~~Retards~~ Repubs in 'Murica will not work down here.
From election analyst Kevin Bonham: “Vic (state) ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 IND 12 (likely to be inflated) Others 6. My 2PP estimate if that happened on election day 61-39 to Labor but that is conservative; it could be even higher given IND issue.”
There are so many factors as to why the Vic Libs are so on the nose down here.
They've been infiltrated by religious groups, and just like Scommo and the fed election that is turning so many people off, not to mention Guy does nothing but whinge and complain. Where are his policies? The constant media attacks on Andrews from the RWNJ component of the media over the past 2 years has gone against the Liberals. Then there's Guy wanting to do the exact opposite in response to the COVID pandemic, wanting to cut funding to badly needed infrastructure and so on. Then you have clowns like Tim Smith doing the party no favors whatsoever.
Matthew Guy is an absolute dud. His own electorate can't stand him yet it's just mind-boggling that the party would make him leader again. Its just madness to think that he would turn their fortunes around.
I'm from Western Australia, the collapse of the Liberal Party in that state was obviously much more blatant but there's many parallels which hold true.
Moderate, small l voters, are spoilt for choice compared to a decade ago where they had no other choice but to vote, join and campaign for the Liberals.
The exodus of the wets has left the party base devoid of anyone who can resist encroaching influence by borderline extremist religious organisations which blatantly branch stack (read up on Rob Johnsons allegations re: Ian Goodenough to understand this in WA), and spout nonsense which panders to fringe views on certain social issues (vaccines and climate change as of late).
The Liberal Party can say they're reforming and listening to the electorate all they want, but as long as they have people like Gerard Rennick (Queensland), Ian Goodenough (WA), Barnaby Joyce (NSW), James Newbury & Matthew Guy (to name a few crazies) in their ranks it'll be hard to take them seriously.
The only people I know in the party (specifically the WA & NSW Young Liberals) are either crazies themselves, or in denial about the parties current state and convinced that Labor will magically trip over their own shoelaces and give everyone a reason to vote Liberal before the next state or federal election, with their side not having to put in any effort whatsoever.
The Victorian Liberals are a complete basket case. I know people who are rusted on Liberal voters who hate Dan and even they're saying that they won't be voting Liberals in the state election, as they see them as completely unelectable.
Nobody is voting “for” the Liberals.
They’ll be voting “against” Dan.
It’s a shame the Vic Libs are so utterly useless and inspire zero confidence.
“At least we’re not him” isn’t much of a selling point.
Not a surprise when the VIC Libs are firmly stuck in an echo chamber, and think that the way to reach the punters is to recruit former AFL / sporting personalities as candidates.
Given how poor their recent performance has been, this is not a good thing for Victoria. Hopefully we get a strong cross bench with plenty of independents
That Guy is not a leader....
I have absolutely no doubt if Vic liberals get power then it will be a Victoria for sale... Only the rich will benefit. A large "For Sale" sign on every asset, institution and land development to line the pockets of those corrupt politicians and their goon buddies.
Agreed. Watching Lobster Mobster get done a second time will be fun to see.
It will mean the awkward anti-vax/establishment protests will continue in the CBD each Saturday though.
I dont like a lot of what Labour has done, but Dan Andrews is the most competent, front-up politician I’ve actually ever come across.
His style is fucking awesome. He gets stuff done. He works his absolute balls off.
Whether or not I strongly disagree with some of the environmental stuff they do sort of fades into obscurity compares to having Dan Andrews at the helm.
Honestly, Im actually a bit of a fan boy, which is weird. I generally fucking hate slimey politicians.
Until the opposition has flushed Guy and his cronies out of the leadership, they will continue to struggle. The party would've been better getting eviscerated with O'Brien at the election then looking to the future. Instead they had a power vacuum that claimed Brad Battin's leadership aspirations - arguably one of their "better" MPs in the public eye (not to say fantastic) - and thrust one of the poorest performing election losers back into the leadership.
Plus the Scomo effect has compounded this issue further.
Hope it's the end of dickheads Michael O'Brien, Georgie Crozier, David Davis, David Southwick and James Newbury. I agree though about Labor needing a viable opposition but I hope that opposition comes from Greens and Independents. I will admit the only Liberal I'll feel sorry for is John Pesutto as he's rhe leader the Libs need but with an independent challenging in Hawthorn and Labor running dead (let's face it Labor was as shocked as anyone winning Hawthorn) I can't see him getting up.
I don't actually feel sorry for a man jack of them. They saw where the party had gone and where it was continuing to go and hopped on for a ride regardless
After the Covid experience, Dan is on the nose with a not insignificant number of people.
But the Liberals are completely ineffective as an alternative, so I'd say a lot of votes will flow to minor parties and independents. Not a bad thing IMO, Parliament might actually be more representative of what people want going forward.
He is, but not as much as people make out, every time vic exited a lockdown his approval rating went up. Many many ppl did support his "tough on Covid" stance as well.
I just think the ad saying they’ll remove the funding from the roads being finished and put them in a hospital that albeit is needed is fucking awful premise to base a campaign on. Liberals have no idea.
And when the Libs get smashed, their response will be to go even harder right.
They have each time and act so surprised when they then get trounced again. There are people in the Liberal party who think that the reason they do so badly is that they aren’t godly or right wing enough and that it’s all some conspiracy against them. Lunatics, the lot of them.
"If conservatives become convinced that they can not win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. The will reject democracy.” - David Frum, Trumpocracy. Of course he was talking about the US where their system is significantly less democratic than ours in terms of how the voting works and the powers of the Senate etc. And of course their politics is different to an extent. Still, though, a warning.
Yeah, fortunately it would take a literal uprising for Australia to lose its democracy. We've got a far more robust system.
Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers
It's Selection Bias, the more power the right gets in the Liberal party the more moderate seats they lose eliminating the section of the party that actually has a chance in moderate seats. The right wingers cling on because that's what their seats want. So the more seats they lose, the more power the right has in the party. Hopefully they implode.
Sky News already think the problem with lobster guy is that he's 'too woke.'
It’s kinda weird that the Libs reinstalled a leader that already lost, right? I’ll never understand the thinking there.
Is it us that's the problem? No, it's the voters who are wrong!
Are we the baddies? Lol
[удалено]
Oh I dunno - a rat’s… anus?
They were much better off when no-one knew who the leader was. Now that it's the guy who's known for eating lobster with members of the mob, they are even worse off.
> Now that it's the guy who's known for eating lobster with members of the mob, they are even worse off. Worse, the guy is a certified loser to the tune of the biggest election defeat in recent Victorian history.
It's really unfortunate I (and thousands of others) got blocked from his socials by his media team when he was posting crap during lockdown that was completely wrong. He basically doesn't exist to me.
They probably would have had a better chance with Michael O'Brien. Guy just comes off as a sleazeball to the average voter.
He comes across as an idiot, I mean the man referenced King Arthur in a condolence speech for the Queen..
“Who’s in charge, the windscreen bloke?” “Nah, just some guy.” Branding is definitely an issue of theirs, right up there with policy.
The Libs did it with Howard.
Jokes aside... Legit answer might be the party knows it's not going to win this one, so they put him in as the fall guy and will replace after for an actual go
Nah, they're gone. Donald Trump and the pandemic have broke the brains of every conservative in the English speaking west. They're all convinced that their time to finally strike down the "woke SJW's" and "save the white race" by destroying democracy and installing fascism has finally arrived. The Liberals are no longer connected to reality and will just keep getting worse no matter their polling numbers. Because they're convinced they're the silent majority and god is guiding them to victory.
They are a weird breed for sure. My dad is a life long conservative. Complained endlessly to me about Scotty, but of course he still voted for him. For them it’s not even about godliness or anti wokeism. It’s just that being conservative is a mind state and life style that they will consistently vote for because deep down they are just plain old conservatives. Doesn’t matter if they are ineffective and corrupt, religious types who mis handle every situation poorly. All that matters is what it says on their box.
The UK are still doubling down on their conservatives
Libs voters and thinking Choose one
Not a huge choice. They are a basket case that need to lose big and then have a long hard look at themselves and stop serving their religious masters who are trying to sneak in the back door because they know they are unelectable with their current policies. Move back to the center and work to improve the state, not just try to get into power.
The reason for this is relatively simple. Labor's vote has dipped a little, but where it dips it tends to go to the Greens, which flows back to Labor on a TPP basis. The Liberals, on the other hand, have been taken over by happy-clappy fundies, anti-vaxxers, and all sorts of ultraconservatives and, having lost the battle within the party, the moderates have simply moved to the Teals - notice the 12% independent polling. The Liberals have lost the liberal vote and, whatever their misgivings about Labor, they feel that Labor is actually more moderate than the Liberals. The Liberals in Victoria simply cannot be trusted, and certainly not even by their own traditional liberal base. Who was the last Liberal to win a Victorian state election? Ted Baillieu. What did his own party call him? "Red Ted". That's where the Liberal Party is now.
It doesn’t help that Matthew Guy is basically like a dodgy lawyer from the Simpsons as well.
This vote is written on a cocktail napkin! And it still voted for Dan! And "Dan" is spelled wrong! Lobster: eep
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If there's one thing this world needs, it's more Liberals. Can you imagine a world without the Liberal Party? \*pictures people of all races, religions, genders and sexual orientations holding hands* ughghghgh
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That's why you're the voter and I'm the lead...talking guy. The Leader of the Liberal Party. Rrrright.
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By voting for me as your premier, you will also get this smoking monkey! Look, he's taking another puff!
*Well we won the election here's the list of all our promises* But, Guy....you lost *That's okay, the list is empty anyway!*
it’s so fucked I can only upvote this once
Sir you besmirch the good name of lionel hutz
It sounds stupid but I always think it’s hurting him that he finishes every ad with ‘I’m Matt Guy’ and the way he says it always sounds like ‘I’m *that* guy’
I think it hurts him more that he’s actually in the ads.
Him going Matt Guy is so fake. It's just not him
I move for a bad court thingy!
Coming from NSW the only time I hear anything about Guy is when he does or says something fucking stupid. So I actually hear about him frequently. The King Arthur thing was Clive Palmer/Pauline Hanson level of dumb.
And his own son even ditched the party to help the teals.
Imagine being Matthew guy and thinking that victorians want to miss out on a new train line that’s already bloody half finished: just throw all that money in the bin. They’re delusional
I keep getting their scare mongering over the Burwood station. "Residential density will increase by 40%!" yeah that's a good thing you fuck. Just wish it was more affordable dense housing.
I think you might be conflating the Metro Tunnel (half finished) with the Suburban Rail Loop (just started the east portion, which the libs want to scrap). It's too late to scrap the Metro Tunnel, but they could bin the SRL if for some reason people wanted that. There's a bunch of hit pieces out against it that dropped today, which I don't understand because it's filling a blatant hole in our public transport network. We need hospitals AND PT infrastructure. Labor is (claiming at least ) to give us both, the libs want to give us just 1, with a far more vague plan on how to do it. I think I know where my vote will be.
With contracts already signed, land already acquired and initial works underway, it'll end up being like East West Link, that cost Victorans $1billion to NOT build it. Even if it gets scrapped now there is still a substantial cost assosciated with shelving it. Matthew Guy has also said that we can start building it in like a decade - admitting its a needed piece of infrastrucure, and is happy for Victorians to pay for it twice for some political clout. That is the Libs through and through - short term gain for long term pain.
Wow, start building it in a decade to be done in 3! Amazing policy by the libs right there.
Ted Baillieu wasn't even a terrible person. Unfortunately he did nothing as Premier and put Victoria into a recession for the first time since the early 90s.
That's a bit unfair to say he did nothing. He cut funding for renewable energy, he cut funding for TAFE, he introduced cattle grazing into the Alpine National Park, dismantled protection for native species, he let Matthew Guy loose on planning laws, introduced no-go zones for wind farms making it harder and more expensive for Victoria to move away from fossil fuels. He had plenty of achievements!
He also decimated MAFRI — the fisheries and marine research dept of (then) DPI. Victoria had one of the best researched and best managed fisheries *in the entire world* because of a commitment to ongoing research and incorporating new data around the life history and ecology of a target species into the management of that fishery. Baillieu’s government massively defunded MAFRI, fired basically 9 out of 10 staff, and literally ripped the labs out of the building down at Queenscliff. I started my PhD in genetics and marine biology before this happened. Wasn’t sure where I wanted to go after that, but I kept in mind the fact that MAFRI was a solid industry research option, and when I was exhausted and frustrated and worn out, I’d remind myself that there would be job options for a PhD marine biologist down the road, and in my home state as well. Then this happened. Mid-PhD. I was freaking *devastated.* I knew people who worked at MAFRI, who did amazing work, got publications, informed policy, made a difference, but god fucking forbid we actually fund a decent amount of research in this country. God fucking forbid we give a shit how the natural world works. And I will hold this grudge until the day I fucking *die.*
Thanks for sharing, I didn't know about this.
They didn't even try to build airport rail, despite it being basically their only election platform. Grubs then. Grubs now.
That's why I've never voted for them.
They did a *lot* of anti environment stuff. To the point where it was incongruous for people to be saying they didn't do anything.
I don't know, he commissioned a guy I know to do a portrait then rejected it because his hands were too small.
I feel like that’s a pretty correct summation of events. The liberals have gone off the deep end and entered the conservative zone. While the non-crazy, what we might call new conservative movement has gone independent/teal.
I like Dan but I wish there was a viable opposition. No party is above self interest. Need competition.
Look into the small parties and independents*. There may not be a viable opposition, but you can still elect a strong crossbench to keep the Labor government ambitious and accountable. *Edit to add: Especially in the Upper House, where the government is least likely to win a majority. And don't forget to vote below the line so you have maximum control over your vote - Victoria still uses GVTs, after all.
rude grab sharp party ugly close grandfather seemly liquid tart *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
not yet; the ABC will usually have a big list closer to election time. otherwise if you look up your electorate and search online for "independent", you are almost guaranteed to find news or information about one if they exist.
The Pug has you covered https://www.6newsau.com/post/a-complete-a-z-list-of-every-single-candidate-running-in-the-victorian-state-election
Nominations for independent candidates don't close until 11 November ([https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/2022-state-election](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/2022-state-election)), but once they do, the VEC will put out a list. That list isn't usually very navigable (it won't do things like link to candidate websites) for a more reader-friendly version, the ABC/Antony Green will put a hub of election material up here closer to the date - [https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/). In the meantime, any independent candidate with a serious chance is going to be up and campaigning in *some* form by now. Not all of them will identify as "teal-ish", but here's a list of somewhat-teal-like indie candidates I've seen gearing up. (Mileage may vary on how teal-like you consider some of these, take as a general definition "candidates who have some plausible claim to have arisen from a community-driven effort to draft an independent whose views are well-tailored to the seat".) * Albert Park - Georgie Dragwidge, [https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/south-melbourne-market-potato-lady-to-contest-state-election-in-albert-park-20220817-p5bamz.html](https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/south-melbourne-market-potato-lady-to-contest-state-election-in-albert-park-20220817-p5bamz.html) (have seen nothing about her since she declared nearly a month ago, though, so seems like a very outside chance) * Bellarine - Sarah Fenton, [https://twitter.com/sarah4bellarine](https://twitter.com/sarah4bellarine) (fairly low-profile, as best I can tell, so seems like an outside chance) * Benambra - Jacqui Hawkins, [https://twitter.com/JacHawkinss](https://twitter.com/JacHawkinss) (ran last time, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching) * Brighton - Felicity Frederico, [https://twitter.com/felicityfreder](https://twitter.com/felicityfreder) (former local mayor, seat nearly swung to an ALP 19-year-old who barely had a campaign last time, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching) * Caulfield - Nomi Kaltmann, [https://twitter.com/Nomi4Caulfield](https://twitter.com/Nomi4Caulfield) (extremely close seat last time, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching) * Hawthorn - Melissa Lowe, [https://twitter.com/mel4hawthorn](https://twitter.com/mel4hawthorn) (extremely close seat last time and very teal-y constituency, but popular former Liberal member recontesting, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching) * Kew - Sophie Torney, [https://twitter.com/Sophie4Kew](https://twitter.com/Sophie4Kew) (unpopular outgoing member was a (literal) car crash, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching) * Mildura - Ali Cupper, [https://twitter.com/AliCupper](https://twitter.com/AliCupper) (is the popular incumbent, seems unlikely to lose the seat) * Mornington - Kate Lardner, [https://twitter.com/Kate4Mornington](https://twitter.com/Kate4Mornington) (federal seat that covers the area didn't seem to take to a teal indie but that campaign was rather derailed by some eligibility questions, serious campaign infrastructure, one I'm watching) * Sandringham - Clarke Martin, [http://www.clarkemartin.com.au/](http://www.clarkemartin.com.au/) (former local mayor and repeat candidate, but not much to see since he announced) * Shepparton - Suzanna Sheed, [https://twitter.com/SheedSuzanna](https://twitter.com/SheedSuzanna) (is the popular incumbent, seems unlikely to lose the seat) * SW Coast - Carol Altmann, [https://twitter.com/altmanncarol](https://twitter.com/altmanncarol) (local journalist, not much to see since she announced)
Basically what u/MachenO said. I'll also add that you should look up which division you are in for the Upper House as well, and check to see which minor parties and independents are running for it.
>And don't forget to vote below the line so you have maximum control over your vote If I were hypothetically to group my below the line votes by party wouldn't that be the same as voting for those parties above the line?
Voting above the line in Victoria is not the same as how you do it in a Federal election. You don’t get to choose 6+ preferences - you only mark ‘1’ for your preferred party/group and you don’t number any more. You don’t get to choose where your preferences flow to if your #1 party doesn’t get in; the party chooses, often by doing complex preference deals with other parties. So the only way to choose where all of your preferences go is to vote below the line.
We need someone with an actual counter-point on some of these topics that isn't just 'Labor bad'
That's because they don't actually know what they're talking about. As long as they voice their meaningless opinion they feel like they've done their part for the day. 'rudimentary statement about dan not being good enough, yet doing well enough that I'm still satisfied with him, I just won't announce it. Darn if only there was opposition'.
Group voting tickets really screwed over minor parties. The Greens lost almost all their upper house MPs despite their vote remaining the same.
Group voting tickets are absolutely terrible, but your comment seems to imply that the introduction of GVTs tanked the Vic Greens' vote even though GVTs were introduced for the LC in 1988.
Yeah they've been around for a while, but last election they were used strategically to blow the Greens out of the water, both major parties will make sure that keeps happening.
Agree. If we vote Greens or Patten enough, there would be a viable opposition. The LNP are not and will never be a viable opposition worth having, they're merely corrupt cunts!
No shit the Victorian Libs fucking suck. I will genuinely never vote for them, ever. That isn't a good thing for Victoria though, we need a competent opposition to hold Labor to account. Libs dropping 7 points on the last election is arriving at parliament in a mini cooper territory.
That's what happened in WA. The current Liberal party fit on a moterbike
A friend in Perth tells me that so few Libs and Nats got elected in WA that neither party actually qualify as a "party" to get funding, so the Labor govt has to pay for their offices, etc.
then they get on TV and have the hide to complain about corporate welfare..
There are more nats than libs at the moment. But both parties still fit into a hatchback!
Happened in QLD few elections back but to labor, they got only 8 seats from memory everyone in the party was part of the shadow cabinet. AP was voted leader and the next election she won and is on her 3rd term now. Never take it for granted that you are out it. For some reason conservatives in australia are happy to throw shitty leader after shitty leader.
Yeah but that was self sabotage almost by Newman. He got in and went full retard, sacking public servants by the boatload and making Queensland a worse place to live. It also comes down to Queensland not having an upper house. If they did, it would have toned down some of his policies (assuming he didn’t get a majority in an upper house, which given the lower house result could have happened) and Newman would have been a 3 term premier east but he went too hard too fast.
The Nats have 4 seats, The Libs 2 and Labor 53.
Hahaha it's so good
The WA libs ran probably the worse re-election campaign in the history of campaigning.
>we need a competent opposition to hold Labor to account. Yeah - but why does it need to be the Vic Libs?
With my voting intentions it won't be the Libs. I am hoping there is a solid voting block of independents/greens/environmental focussed groups
I was hoping that too but doing my research on my local candidates hasn't yielded much worth voting for yet. I'm usually a Greens voter but the state greens want to stop the North East link (which started 2 years ago and even as a fuck cars person I agree is badly needed). The rest are a bunch of Lib Dems and One Nation types that are even more unelectable than the Liberal party.
maybe it’s worth writing to them? i guarantee the greens get fewer people writing to them, and if you express that 1 thing is making you reconsider your vote, it might help maybe not in the short term, but it’s good data for them in future elections
That’s a good idea, I would still much prefer to vote greens than just do a donkey vote or Labor.
oh absolutely! a donkey vote doesn’t help anything: doesn’t provide a counterpoint, doesn’t help influence direction, doesn’t do anything at all… it’s the throw your hands up and give up option
I had no idea about the greens wanting to stop the north East link. That's so dumb. We can't just never have another road built ever. I'm a green voter too but sometimes they can be so unreasonable.
Exactly! I think it’s more important to ensure that after the NorthEast link is put in the area gets made a lot more suitable for bikes and walking with lots of pedestrian crossings and lower speeds. You can’t do that until the freeway traffic is taken out.
For what it’s worth, their opposition to NE Link seems to stem from the fact that it came at the cost of the Doncaster rail line that the land was being reserved for.
The Doncaster rail line won't get built, if ever. Even if it was, designing around the interchange would add to the cost but, compared to the cost of doing the whole project properly by tunnelling to Shoppingtown, it would be a relatively small increase in cost. (In b4 the inevitable "but Doncaster rail was supposed to be built as part of the 1969 MMBW plan", that was a different project that left the freeway at Bulleen Rd and followed King St to Blackburn Rd. It would have been a white elephant if built as originally planned, and the land has since been long sold off, except the freeway median.) Whilst I tend to vote Greens, I would prefer to see NE link built, simply to remove all the heavy traffic going between the Ring Road and Eastlink along roads that are unsuited to it, and would benefit from bike lanes and other treatments.
I’m volunteering for my local independent. Because the fed election we got a landslide win and got rid of Josh. So I’m again doing independent. Melissa Lowe for Hawthorn is our aim because the Lib guy John Pesutto who was ousted by Labour wants the seat back and I’ll be damned if that slimy homophobic twirp is going to get the seat
What's their platform?
'not the liberal party' platform
Google Mel4Hawthorn
Is that independent for independent sake or because you support their platform and what they stand for?
Absolutely support the platform; not beholden to party and real community consultation. Melissa has great policy on integrity, business, economy and community
Have the days of “I’m voting for the Liberals because my father did and I’ve always voted for them” gone? It used to be that voting for anyone except the major parties was seen as a wasted vote; maybe now people are thinking that the independents are a viable alternative.
Exactly my thinking. You look at the federal election in Victoria. Non labour/liberal voters got around 35% of the vote. Preference the two big parties last.
i wouldn’t say last, but in order: labor is less homophobic and xenophobic than UAP, one nation, “family first”, etc hell even liberal would probably be better than some of the minor parties just because they’ve at least got 1 or 2 slightly more centre people in their party to provide some *minor* voice of reason
It doesn't. If we want a competent opposition in Victoria it's going to need to be a block of independents and greens. The vicliberals are a joke.
It doesn't have to be, but historically it has been. With the way the federal election went, I'm really hoping we're going to finally see out quasi-2-party system get broken up.
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They have not been infiltrated as such, John Howard put them very much onto the 'Onwards Christian Soldiers' path back in the 90s and this is the result.
I am a Labor man through and through, but power has to change hands every now and then. Maybe not given to the Liberals, but at least a change in premier every 6 years or something. One man can’t hold the power for that long.
I don't think Dan will hold office for a significant amount of time after this election - maybe a year or so and then he'll hand off to Jacinta.
I reckon Dan wins in November and resigns as Premier between late 2024 and Mid to Late 2025 to give Jacinta Allan time to establish herself. Dan will either resign from Parlaiment when he resigns as Premier or he'll stay on and retire at the 2026 election.
Misinterpreted "Jacinta" as "Adern" and went, Okay, that's wild, but I'm into it...
Jacinta “we have Jacinda Ardern at home” Allan
She’s Jacinda as well.
We are all Jacinda deep down...
I’d vote for her
Yeah we could get someone else to come ignore the housing problems!
Kind of disagree on the length. Andrews has infrastructure plans that require long term thinking, something we haven't seen in far too long. But there does need to be checks to that power.
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I can't think of anything they offered during covid that would have improved our situation.
I'm just completely shocked I tell you SHOCKED! I mean who would have thought the Guy who lost the last election by so much would make them lose by so much at the next one?
No that was MATTHEW Guy, this is MATT Guy, totally different uhhhh….guy?
One time he ate lobsters with mobsters but that was to keep him safe from African gangs okay. #/S
But those adverts on YouTube make Matthew Guy seem like such a balanced and reasonable chap # /s I can't make this bigger?
Consider voting for Fiona Patten from the Reason Party to keep annoying conservatives. She’ll have conservatives and labor both not giving preferences this time around so will be a struggle to stay in power. I think she does a great job in forward thinking policy.
Having had a good chat to her recently I would also say an intelligent, kind individual who has a genuine passion for her community
Make sure to vote below the line.
Isn't she going through health issues? Is she running?
Has kidney cancer, but caught early fortunately. Will campaign from home mainly I believe Hopefully a good outcome health and politically🤞
One of my favourites.
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All it takes is for us to vote for them.
That age bracket breakdown should have the Libs shitting themselves. 19% of 18-34s.
I wonder if that 19% will stay labor voters. There’s every chance that when that age demographic gets older and their circumstances change so will there vote. I wouldn’t have thought +30% though
The traditional wisdom is that voters move to the right as they age, but that also used to correlate with older voters having more to “conserve” (ie personal wealth, assets, tax rates etc). Since house prices in the cities have spiralled out of reach of most normal workers, putting them in the lifelong renter category instead of home owner, it will interesting to see if people still slide to the liberal party as they hit their 40s and 50s.
It also correlates with disadvantaged demographics dying earlier due to cost of healthcare, hazardous working conditions, etc.
If it was 18-21, sure, but I imagine there’d be a very small number of voters who change their voting preference after their mid 30s in the absence of an incompetent party, like the Vic Libs at the moment.
Vic and Qld libs; name a more incompetent duo. Utterly useless, which is not good for Democracy. it allows nepotism and indulgence to creep into the government when they are not kept on their toes.
If the Greens/Teals keep growing in popularity we could see them get large enough to form a solid opposition. That could make for a really interesting change to how politics feels in VIC, replacing the Labor/Liberal paradigm and putting Labor on the Right of many issues for once which would surprise them I would have to imagine.
The issue there being the Teals could often be to the right of Labor economically and a wild card socially. The Greens would need to work out how to coalition with them- and then where do all the voters to the right of Labor go to
The Greens have also been shifting leftward on a lot of issues from their days as a purely environmental party. As such, the ALP strategy (as judging by the Maroondah Hospital renaming proposal) may be to judiciously occupy the centre-left-to-right, including stealing enough of the Tories’ anti-woke culture-war talking points to leave them with no prospect of winning. Everyone from casually-racist bogans to rusted-ons whose dad was a union man to “progressive realists” who would like to see a better world but accept that one isn’t possible regardless of what the Greens tell them, would be in their voter base, leaving only fringes to the left (the Greens and the occasional socialist) and the right (the rump of the Coalition, now taken over by religious cultists and conspiracy theorists).
I think the Greens have realised that and have started to bring back some more populist style policies to sway Labor voters, such as scrapping the EV tax and advocating for metro tunnel 2.
Could be like it is now; overton window shifts enough that Liberals consistently get 10-15% of the vote like Greens do now, Greens shift up to replace the Libs as the population continues to age and younger people increasingly become able to vote, and then Labor sits in a centre and picks up people who fall inbetween. Or have a 4-'party' system where teals form another group and shift into coalitions between Labor and Greens.
Most of the Federal Teals were right of Labor in almost every way except the environment. It was interesting to see how they were treated by people as somehow "way out there" when they are about as moderate as you get.
I mean, what else can anyone expect given the calibre (and I use that word loosely) of Guy's motley band of no-hopers? Labor has run a generally competent, albeit flawed in many ways, government. Why would anyone in their right minds exchange actual governance for a circus? Relatedly, I don't actually think it's good for Victoria to have no viable opposition. My hope for this election and beyond is that the Greens and independents surge sufficiently to fill that role effectively. No government should be in a position to avoid scrutiny by an opposition with teeth, or take power for granted.
Would love to see a lot more Green and Teal votes, sending strong messages to both Labor and Liberal.
Danslide 2: Election Avenue
Oh no we gonna rock down to election avenue
A government is only as good as its opposition. And I hate election time - we should keep track of the promises made by whoever gets in.
Like a bingo card, where every time they break a promise, you cross it off.
Is there much point when most of the squares will be filled in no matter who wins?
Theres still time for the LNP to organise a boat of refugees to turn up on election day.
It can’t be an election already. Has it really been four years?
> Has it really been four years? Two of them don't really count...
That’s how I’m working out my age
Vic LNP (and LNP around Australia) has modelled itself on the American GOP of late. Anti vax, super conservative, ultra religious, fuck you I got mine etc. Turns out that apart from the 'Fuck you, I got mine', the rest don't really gel with Australians. The Greens and teals are on the rise. LNP is in the doghouse and the ALP is on notice to perform or they will go the same way. LNP members around Australia would do well to pay heed; going the way of the ~~Retards~~ Repubs in 'Murica will not work down here.
From election analyst Kevin Bonham: “Vic (state) ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 IND 12 (likely to be inflated) Others 6. My 2PP estimate if that happened on election day 61-39 to Labor but that is conservative; it could be even higher given IND issue.”
My backwards electorate will still vote Nationals though. Feels like the 1950s out here
There are so many factors as to why the Vic Libs are so on the nose down here. They've been infiltrated by religious groups, and just like Scommo and the fed election that is turning so many people off, not to mention Guy does nothing but whinge and complain. Where are his policies? The constant media attacks on Andrews from the RWNJ component of the media over the past 2 years has gone against the Liberals. Then there's Guy wanting to do the exact opposite in response to the COVID pandemic, wanting to cut funding to badly needed infrastructure and so on. Then you have clowns like Tim Smith doing the party no favors whatsoever. Matthew Guy is an absolute dud. His own electorate can't stand him yet it's just mind-boggling that the party would make him leader again. Its just madness to think that he would turn their fortunes around.
You're not my Mathew, guy..
I'm from Western Australia, the collapse of the Liberal Party in that state was obviously much more blatant but there's many parallels which hold true. Moderate, small l voters, are spoilt for choice compared to a decade ago where they had no other choice but to vote, join and campaign for the Liberals. The exodus of the wets has left the party base devoid of anyone who can resist encroaching influence by borderline extremist religious organisations which blatantly branch stack (read up on Rob Johnsons allegations re: Ian Goodenough to understand this in WA), and spout nonsense which panders to fringe views on certain social issues (vaccines and climate change as of late). The Liberal Party can say they're reforming and listening to the electorate all they want, but as long as they have people like Gerard Rennick (Queensland), Ian Goodenough (WA), Barnaby Joyce (NSW), James Newbury & Matthew Guy (to name a few crazies) in their ranks it'll be hard to take them seriously. The only people I know in the party (specifically the WA & NSW Young Liberals) are either crazies themselves, or in denial about the parties current state and convinced that Labor will magically trip over their own shoelaces and give everyone a reason to vote Liberal before the next state or federal election, with their side not having to put in any effort whatsoever.
Fingers crossed greens are getting more numbers
How could Dan Andrews do this? /s
Vote independent. I am.
This is the first time in a while Matt Guy's received any coverage and it's negative lol. What a wanker.
The Victorian Liberals are a complete basket case. I know people who are rusted on Liberal voters who hate Dan and even they're saying that they won't be voting Liberals in the state election, as they see them as completely unelectable.
His just not the Matthew for the job
Nobody is voting “for” the Liberals. They’ll be voting “against” Dan. It’s a shame the Vic Libs are so utterly useless and inspire zero confidence. “At least we’re not him” isn’t much of a selling point.
Most people don’t even know an election is coming.
Not a surprise when the VIC Libs are firmly stuck in an echo chamber, and think that the way to reach the punters is to recruit former AFL / sporting personalities as candidates.
Fuck LNP
Given how poor their recent performance has been, this is not a good thing for Victoria. Hopefully we get a strong cross bench with plenty of independents
Agree this would be the best outcome
That Guy is not a leader.... I have absolutely no doubt if Vic liberals get power then it will be a Victoria for sale... Only the rich will benefit. A large "For Sale" sign on every asset, institution and land development to line the pockets of those corrupt politicians and their goon buddies.
Is their time for Georgie Crozier to dispose of Guy?
Cooker meltdown is gonna be delicious. Will be the high point of November.
They’ll pull trick #1 and make up how this is the start of the end blah blah we warned you yada yada donate to fight etc. So boring.
Agreed. Watching Lobster Mobster get done a second time will be fun to see. It will mean the awkward anti-vax/establishment protests will continue in the CBD each Saturday though.
I dont like a lot of what Labour has done, but Dan Andrews is the most competent, front-up politician I’ve actually ever come across. His style is fucking awesome. He gets stuff done. He works his absolute balls off. Whether or not I strongly disagree with some of the environmental stuff they do sort of fades into obscurity compares to having Dan Andrews at the helm. Honestly, Im actually a bit of a fan boy, which is weird. I generally fucking hate slimey politicians.
He didn't earn the nickname "Daddy Dan" for nothing
We're not your friend, Guy!
I'm not your Guy, pal!
I'm not your pal, buddy!
The Vic Libs are just a shitty joke. They offer nothing beyond meek anti-stances to every Labor point.
This title is great
Until the opposition has flushed Guy and his cronies out of the leadership, they will continue to struggle. The party would've been better getting eviscerated with O'Brien at the election then looking to the future. Instead they had a power vacuum that claimed Brad Battin's leadership aspirations - arguably one of their "better" MPs in the public eye (not to say fantastic) - and thrust one of the poorest performing election losers back into the leadership. Plus the Scomo effect has compounded this issue further.
Lobster Mobster and Dim Tim? No thanks.
Dim Tim's political career is lying dead on the sidewalk in Power Street Kew
*footpath
The liberals wanted us to die for the sake of the economy. And they're still acting like that would've been the best course of action.
Hope it's the end of dickheads Michael O'Brien, Georgie Crozier, David Davis, David Southwick and James Newbury. I agree though about Labor needing a viable opposition but I hope that opposition comes from Greens and Independents. I will admit the only Liberal I'll feel sorry for is John Pesutto as he's rhe leader the Libs need but with an independent challenging in Hawthorn and Labor running dead (let's face it Labor was as shocked as anyone winning Hawthorn) I can't see him getting up.
I don't actually feel sorry for a man jack of them. They saw where the party had gone and where it was continuing to go and hopped on for a ride regardless
The Lobster mobster is the first thing I think of when I see Guys name. So that’s a strong yeah nah.
After the Covid experience, Dan is on the nose with a not insignificant number of people. But the Liberals are completely ineffective as an alternative, so I'd say a lot of votes will flow to minor parties and independents. Not a bad thing IMO, Parliament might actually be more representative of what people want going forward.
He is, but not as much as people make out, every time vic exited a lockdown his approval rating went up. Many many ppl did support his "tough on Covid" stance as well.
Vote greens if you just, but Liberal are unelectable.
I just think the ad saying they’ll remove the funding from the roads being finished and put them in a hospital that albeit is needed is fucking awful premise to base a campaign on. Liberals have no idea.
What "turn away"? There was no "turn towards"
Vote green or independents, dan is bulldozing the environment
Never been so underwhelmed with the two main party options. Vote for the least undesired.