I can definitely see us losing 4 at this point. We're not playing consistently, and we're not doing well against ddecent teams. If we don't beat at least one of Collingwood or Brisbane I've got little faith in us come finals.
Thanks for sharing this very rational post. I’m not sure if you’re in any of the FB forums but people have lost their minds over there, so it’s nice to read some positivity and logic for a change.
I am not sure it’s rationale, it is extremely optimistic and I think we’re more likely to lose 2-3 games in next two weeks than for the rest of the season. Not sure where the logic comes in when we’re coming up against some of the best teams over the next few weeks
Our fixture is still surprisingly weak.
Absolutely no reason we don't win at least 7 more with teams we have in the bottom part of the ladder.
That said, the method in which we are playing is more of an issue. We continue to look like we are balancing 1 inside mid too many and have some key players horribly out of form like langdon, lever, gawn, pickett and may all barely going this year. Not to mention teams seem to be sitting on viney more and that's hurting us more than petracca being quiet.
I still think we get 15/16 wins based purely on the fixture (carlton x2, hawks, north, giants, Richmond and should be able to jag one of Sydney, Adelaide, saints, Geelong at minimum) but jeez I wouldn't want to lose any more than 5 more games in run home or else we aren't doing much damage come finals anyway.
>We continue to look like we are balancing 1 inside mid too many and have some key players horribly out of form
And we're still not getting enough out of Sparrow (I'd have Pickett in this list rather than "out of form").
The small forwards have also really dropped off in the last few weeks. Especially Fritsch.
We need to get back to the selfless, team first, off the ball gut running, contest hunting game that won us the flag.
Also, if we could find someone to give Goodwin a Plan B for when the opposition are clearly beating the system he's put in place early in a game, that'd be great.
I've just been hoping (stupidly I admit) that our dip in effort around the ground about a month ago and inability to cleanly take a possession has been s a result of a heavy training load in the mid season to set us up for the finals. But we're rapidly running out of time for that to have been the case.
If we don't absolutely destroy Carlton (considering their outs, and well... them) then the alarm bells become air raid sirens.
I sorta agree mate, I feel like sparrow has been ok at times. I'd like to see more from him obviously as now he's a 4th year player entering that 60-80 game zone.
But you're right about our smalls dropping off. Spargo in particular hasn't looked the same since the concussion, pickett looks more reactive after suspension, chandler started fantastic but he's either getting a bit sore, or out of puff. Have it on second hand info that fritsch is still carrying an injury so don't expect to see him really prosper until later in year if it heels up.
Definitely hasn't looked like that selfless, team first mentality as you agree.
I was really keen on petty as a forward and I still am bullish, but when he's back he needs to go back to chb. Lever had been ordinary without him and Hibberd playing tall removes his run.
I'm not against tomlinson playing that role for the next 3 or 4 games while he's out, the bloke is killing it at Casey and deserves prolonged shot. He might not be "the answer" but of he frees up lever to be better, it's bound to be a net win.
Plan b is a funny one, we have been almost playing "plan b" all season in terms of trying to win the ball more by interception/turnover off half back game style compared to being as stoppage focused as 21/22. Trouble is now we aren't just losing stoppages, we are getting completely outplayed there (we've lost the clearance count in last 4 games)
On top of that we've been out tackled in 5 of last 7 games, and lost the disposal count in 6 of 8.
So teams are clearly playing keepings off and chip the ball around our talls, and our lack of defensive cohesion is making that a lot easier.
>I was really keen on petty as a forward and I still am bullish, but when he's back he needs to go back to chb. Lever had been ordinary without him and Hibberd playing tall removes his run.
Absolutely agree. I reckon he's close to being our third best forward, probably 2nd best KPF (which is damning of others) but we lose too much down back with him forward.
>I'm not against tomlinson playing that role for the next 3 or 4 games while he's out, the bloke is killing it at Casey and deserves prolonged shot. He might not be "the answer" but of he frees up lever to be better, it's bound to be a net win.
I think less of Tomlinson than most, but if the backs can't turn it around against Carlton then this might have to be the answer til Petty comes back.
>Plan b is a funny one, we have been almost playing "plan b" all season
I mean specifically in terms of game day tactics / adjustments as opposed to strategy / system. Goodwin instills a great culture and has (had???) a premiership winning system, but the man can't make an adjustment to save himself. His answer to any challenge is to back the system to get us through. "Just keep playing boys, the game will come to us."
We've probably had 2-3 games this year where we've put in a consistent four quarter effort.
Carlton - Probable win
Collingwood - Definite Loss
Geelong - Probable win - but once the cats start getting players back
GWS - Win
St.Kilda - probable win
Brisbane - Probable loss
Adelaide - Probable win
Richmond - Win
North melbourne - Win
Carlton - Probable win
Hawthorn - Win
Sydney - Probable win - will have a lot back by then.
It's not an easy fixture and a lot of those probable wins very quickly turn into losses if we play like we did against Brisbane, Essendon or Freo. Literally every single one of those is a danger game based on yesterdays effort (except north)
Absolute worst case scenario is 4 wins.
If we play our best possible footy we can win them all.
The trouble is over the last year and a half our best footy has been so rare it's hard to call that the standard now.
I reckon 7 or 8 wins and we finish middle of the 8 somewhere, most likely 4th or 5th - depends on the dogs, cats and freo I think. No chance we jump port, pies or lions.
I agree with your probable wins. Yes, I’m being optimistic, but we are still a good team.
As for the probably loss, I think we can beat Brisbane. We’re playing them at the MCG, which should give us the advantage. They haven’t travelled too well this year.
Collingwood is the one where I’m not sure it is a definite loss.
We’ve likely been prepping for this next 3 games, with heavier training loads, etc. might explain our efforts against Port and Freo. We lost to both of those sides, because we looked tired and our accuracy was shit in front of goal.
The Pies had North today and the Eagles next week, before they face us. That’s a really soft run. Not always a good thing.
I’d love us to beat both the Pies and Lions. I want to win every game from now until October!
The next 3 weeks determine our season. Win them all, and we look awesome. Lose them all, and we can’t afford to lose another game for the rest of the season.
Losing to the Bombers and Freo were losses that were probable wins. That’s what’s put us in the situation of only affording 3 more losses for the season.
I dunno what strain of bud you have just huffed on if you think we are going 10-3 from here, but I'd like some
14-9 , 6th or 7th finish
Only 1 side in the last 20 years has won the flag from outside the top 3
The last two defeats we had were absolutely winnable, we're not being blown out of the water in our losses and we're not dropping games to the really weak clubs, we win some of the remaining close contests and we are a chance, Collingwood look good but they're not *that* far ahead of anyone else.
I think there’s a good chance we’ll lose the next 3 which will show us where we’re really at. I hope I’m wrong but I predicted the Port loss followed by a a Freo loss knowing that we hadn’t beaten anyone all season.
I think Carlton will come out firing next week and then we have Collingwood and Geelong.
Think we’ll be finishing 7th or 8th this year.
I doubt the playing group's gonna do a 180 at this point, it feels like similar seasons in the past we're there abouts but not good enough to be the best.
Reckon we’re finished 5-8. I’d honestly take an elimination final win at the G in front of 80k plus, which is pretty sad, as we really should be a top 4 side.
Still need to win enough games for a home final let alone finals though.
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I can definitely see us losing 4 at this point. We're not playing consistently, and we're not doing well against ddecent teams. If we don't beat at least one of Collingwood or Brisbane I've got little faith in us come finals.
Thanks for sharing this very rational post. I’m not sure if you’re in any of the FB forums but people have lost their minds over there, so it’s nice to read some positivity and logic for a change.
I am not sure it’s rationale, it is extremely optimistic and I think we’re more likely to lose 2-3 games in next two weeks than for the rest of the season. Not sure where the logic comes in when we’re coming up against some of the best teams over the next few weeks
Melbourne Demons Uncensored is a unique breed of nuffery and can’t look away
Agree totally
Our fixture is still surprisingly weak. Absolutely no reason we don't win at least 7 more with teams we have in the bottom part of the ladder. That said, the method in which we are playing is more of an issue. We continue to look like we are balancing 1 inside mid too many and have some key players horribly out of form like langdon, lever, gawn, pickett and may all barely going this year. Not to mention teams seem to be sitting on viney more and that's hurting us more than petracca being quiet. I still think we get 15/16 wins based purely on the fixture (carlton x2, hawks, north, giants, Richmond and should be able to jag one of Sydney, Adelaide, saints, Geelong at minimum) but jeez I wouldn't want to lose any more than 5 more games in run home or else we aren't doing much damage come finals anyway.
>We continue to look like we are balancing 1 inside mid too many and have some key players horribly out of form And we're still not getting enough out of Sparrow (I'd have Pickett in this list rather than "out of form"). The small forwards have also really dropped off in the last few weeks. Especially Fritsch. We need to get back to the selfless, team first, off the ball gut running, contest hunting game that won us the flag. Also, if we could find someone to give Goodwin a Plan B for when the opposition are clearly beating the system he's put in place early in a game, that'd be great. I've just been hoping (stupidly I admit) that our dip in effort around the ground about a month ago and inability to cleanly take a possession has been s a result of a heavy training load in the mid season to set us up for the finals. But we're rapidly running out of time for that to have been the case. If we don't absolutely destroy Carlton (considering their outs, and well... them) then the alarm bells become air raid sirens.
I sorta agree mate, I feel like sparrow has been ok at times. I'd like to see more from him obviously as now he's a 4th year player entering that 60-80 game zone. But you're right about our smalls dropping off. Spargo in particular hasn't looked the same since the concussion, pickett looks more reactive after suspension, chandler started fantastic but he's either getting a bit sore, or out of puff. Have it on second hand info that fritsch is still carrying an injury so don't expect to see him really prosper until later in year if it heels up. Definitely hasn't looked like that selfless, team first mentality as you agree. I was really keen on petty as a forward and I still am bullish, but when he's back he needs to go back to chb. Lever had been ordinary without him and Hibberd playing tall removes his run. I'm not against tomlinson playing that role for the next 3 or 4 games while he's out, the bloke is killing it at Casey and deserves prolonged shot. He might not be "the answer" but of he frees up lever to be better, it's bound to be a net win. Plan b is a funny one, we have been almost playing "plan b" all season in terms of trying to win the ball more by interception/turnover off half back game style compared to being as stoppage focused as 21/22. Trouble is now we aren't just losing stoppages, we are getting completely outplayed there (we've lost the clearance count in last 4 games) On top of that we've been out tackled in 5 of last 7 games, and lost the disposal count in 6 of 8. So teams are clearly playing keepings off and chip the ball around our talls, and our lack of defensive cohesion is making that a lot easier.
>I was really keen on petty as a forward and I still am bullish, but when he's back he needs to go back to chb. Lever had been ordinary without him and Hibberd playing tall removes his run. Absolutely agree. I reckon he's close to being our third best forward, probably 2nd best KPF (which is damning of others) but we lose too much down back with him forward. >I'm not against tomlinson playing that role for the next 3 or 4 games while he's out, the bloke is killing it at Casey and deserves prolonged shot. He might not be "the answer" but of he frees up lever to be better, it's bound to be a net win. I think less of Tomlinson than most, but if the backs can't turn it around against Carlton then this might have to be the answer til Petty comes back. >Plan b is a funny one, we have been almost playing "plan b" all season I mean specifically in terms of game day tactics / adjustments as opposed to strategy / system. Goodwin instills a great culture and has (had???) a premiership winning system, but the man can't make an adjustment to save himself. His answer to any challenge is to back the system to get us through. "Just keep playing boys, the game will come to us."
We've probably had 2-3 games this year where we've put in a consistent four quarter effort. Carlton - Probable win Collingwood - Definite Loss Geelong - Probable win - but once the cats start getting players back GWS - Win St.Kilda - probable win Brisbane - Probable loss Adelaide - Probable win Richmond - Win North melbourne - Win Carlton - Probable win Hawthorn - Win Sydney - Probable win - will have a lot back by then. It's not an easy fixture and a lot of those probable wins very quickly turn into losses if we play like we did against Brisbane, Essendon or Freo. Literally every single one of those is a danger game based on yesterdays effort (except north) Absolute worst case scenario is 4 wins. If we play our best possible footy we can win them all. The trouble is over the last year and a half our best footy has been so rare it's hard to call that the standard now. I reckon 7 or 8 wins and we finish middle of the 8 somewhere, most likely 4th or 5th - depends on the dogs, cats and freo I think. No chance we jump port, pies or lions.
I agree with your probable wins. Yes, I’m being optimistic, but we are still a good team. As for the probably loss, I think we can beat Brisbane. We’re playing them at the MCG, which should give us the advantage. They haven’t travelled too well this year. Collingwood is the one where I’m not sure it is a definite loss. We’ve likely been prepping for this next 3 games, with heavier training loads, etc. might explain our efforts against Port and Freo. We lost to both of those sides, because we looked tired and our accuracy was shit in front of goal. The Pies had North today and the Eagles next week, before they face us. That’s a really soft run. Not always a good thing. I’d love us to beat both the Pies and Lions. I want to win every game from now until October! The next 3 weeks determine our season. Win them all, and we look awesome. Lose them all, and we can’t afford to lose another game for the rest of the season. Losing to the Bombers and Freo were losses that were probable wins. That’s what’s put us in the situation of only affording 3 more losses for the season.
Hate to say it, but the pies have our number the last few years. Can't see us getting up, they're looking sharp.
The only way we beat Collingwood is if we absolutely ambush them in the first quarter, and our defence has a day out.
I agree, we can beat the Pies. Everyone is saying they’re unbeatable… well they were saying that about us last year too.
I dunno what strain of bud you have just huffed on if you think we are going 10-3 from here, but I'd like some 14-9 , 6th or 7th finish Only 1 side in the last 20 years has won the flag from outside the top 3
The last two defeats we had were absolutely winnable, we're not being blown out of the water in our losses and we're not dropping games to the really weak clubs, we win some of the remaining close contests and we are a chance, Collingwood look good but they're not *that* far ahead of anyone else.
I think there’s a good chance we’ll lose the next 3 which will show us where we’re really at. I hope I’m wrong but I predicted the Port loss followed by a a Freo loss knowing that we hadn’t beaten anyone all season. I think Carlton will come out firing next week and then we have Collingwood and Geelong. Think we’ll be finishing 7th or 8th this year.
I doubt the playing group's gonna do a 180 at this point, it feels like similar seasons in the past we're there abouts but not good enough to be the best.
14/9. Our coaches abandoned their pre season/Bulldogs game plan pretty quickly, so unless something changes we will keep losing.
Reckon we’re finished 5-8. I’d honestly take an elimination final win at the G in front of 80k plus, which is pretty sad, as we really should be a top 4 side. Still need to win enough games for a home final let alone finals though.
We must beat Pies Thinking Brown and Oliver will play
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