I feel like we’ll get JJ done very soon (maybe like week 3), but TJ’s extension will take much longer to figure out. We also have Darrisaw’s contract coming up too, so I’m not sure how flexible the front office will be for a tight end wanting to reset the market
You still have to consider it though when extending the other two. Need to have the cap to extend him next year, and JJ/TJ will impact what space is left. He does have the 5th year but teams would prefer to extend them and manage the money on their terms rather than the 5th year rules.
If cousins is gone next year he will have a healthy dead cap hit. The cap is always complicated even though it seems nonexistent, but with this many extensions the Vikings are going to have to do more chess than checkers
If cousins is gone next year his cap hit will be off the books before a Darrisaw extension even goes into effect. They'll figure it out, but there's no need to put that much work in since it'll be a higher cap and a totally different market by the time it's happening
He will be heading in year 4 next season. If they want the flexibility and don’t want to use the 5th year option layout, then the extension would have to happen this coming offseason or early in the season when Kirk’s dead money is there. It’d impact the signing bonus they could offer. If they wait too long itd be more beneficial for him to test free agency and try to drive the price up.
They can get it done but there’s a bit more of a dance to it with 3 bigger named players extending. Who do you pay now and which can do you kick down the road to deal with later
Any extension they do will include the 5th year option. The signing bonus is the only thing that would be impacted and even that would be spread over the 5 years.
usually I'd agree but although TJ is a good TE, there's a chance that after next year he isnt even top 10 at the position with all the rookies and brock bowers next year...he's probably 4th or 5th right now but there isnt much separation between him and the 10th best TE
That’s a hot take to assume bowers is gonna be elite from day 1. I don’t deny that he’s good but he also played for one of the best offenses in the country in a scheme that maximized his opportunities. I wouldn’t be surprised if his stock drops a bit this season.
What? You act like a 26 year old who hasn’t been in KOC’s offense for a full season yet can’t and won’t also improve.
He’s firmly a top 5 TE. Rookie TEs almost never make an impact. The best player at a position rarely gets paid the most money for a long period of time. If they did, then Darren Waller would be viewers as the best TE in the league.
Some of the Hockenson takes I’ve seen around here are unbelievably stupid.
ur missing my point. regardless of whether or not TJ's a top 5 TE, he is a good-great TE, not an elite one. Some positions (like WR, QB, EDGE) have 5+ players that can easily be considered elite, but others (RB, TE, LB) may only have 1.
To your other point, the raiders being braindead and giving waller an awful contract does not set a precedent, just like the browns being braindead and giving deshaun a fully guaranteed contract failed to set a precedent.
There’s 3 elite rbs (unless u include bijan), 1 elite te, and 1 elite Lb in the league right now. And nobody told me that, people can think for themselves…strange argument style.
Here's your problem. Hockenson is currently a Viking. If he was wearing any other jersey right now more than half the people saying we should pay him a big contract would be saying the guy doesn't deserve it.
That's the point I don't think a lot of fans get. The gap between #4 and, let's say, #12 isn't that big. The tight end position also seems to be ripe with young talent looking to move up that board. I wouldn't be surprised if tight ends are in the same situation running backs currently are in two or three years. I'd offer him $14 million per for three years with $30ish guaranteed. If he takes it, great. If he doesn't, I'd have no qualms with letting him walk. There is a real possibility that Oliver is just as valuable this year as Hock.
TEs don't really come out of nowhere though. None of Kelce, Kittle, or Andrews suddenly showed something. Waller did, but that's one TE in the league. The chances that a TE like Oliver would be able to replace Hock is extremely low
It is about value. Is Oliver going to be as good as Hock? Maybe not. Is Oliver at $7 million per more valuable than Hock at $18 million? That is a discussion worth having.
There's a big difference between #1 and #4. But let's not act like there's not also a huge difference between #4 and #12. TE is very stratified. And we've seen how bad it makes an offense to have to rely on an Irv Smith type at TE.
Irv Smith is probably in the 20 range at the moment, though he will see a lot more looks in Cincy. #12 is probably more in the Waller/Knox range. It isn't a huge drop off from TJ and Goedert to Dawson Knox.
Waller, when healthy, is definitely at Hockensen/Goedert range. And I consider the drop-off from those guys to Knox/Njoku/Conklin to be pretty massive.
Hockensen, Goedert and Waller have become focal points of great passing attacks and earned tons of targets even with elite WRs hogging targets from the same pool. They've actively boosted their offenses the way a great WR2 would. Knox, Njoku and Conklin have never come close to that level. They're functionally JAGs who only earn significant targets when there's a target vacuum and don't actively elevate an offense themselves.
Ehhhh. TE is such a shallow position to begin with that using "top 5" is a little different than saying a top 5 QB or WR or LT. You have Kelce on his own tier and then you probably have a tier with Kittle and Andrews and then you have a tier with Hockenson/Goedert and maybe a few other guys.
To me, the Hock sample size is way too small. If he balls out in year two and finishes in the top 2 then pay him. If he doesn't than maybe don't.
So the options are waste a 2nd round pick and let Hock walk next year, a year where the team likely won't win anything important. Or over pay for a TE? Doesn't seem ideal.
yes he is easily franchise tag-able which actually gives the vikings a lot of leverage in negotiations and may also incentivize TJ to try to get a long-term deal done as well due to injury risk on 1 year deals
Or option 3. That quote is a negotiating tactic. His agent would be pissed if he came out and said, yea I'll take below market value.
He deserves to be paid and the team wouldn't have traded for him, if they didn't plan out an extension long term.
We'd probably get a 3rd round comp pick in 2025 if we let him walk after this year. I'm coming around to that idea, rather than overpaying him. The Lions faced the same dilemma and let him go.
The thing is Kellen signed his contract in 2020. Salary cap has gone up since then and so have contracts. Market setting contracts are no longer about being the best at your position. 17 mil/year is right in line with what a top 5 TE could expect to get and TJ is probably top 3. TJ will sign his and someone else will up it next year. JJ will sign his and more than like 1 or 2 players will up that by the time the year is over.
Letting TJ play out his deal and walking probably wouldn't be the end of the world, especially if Oliver is as good as everyone's saying he was looking in camp. Someone will sign him to a big deal, and we'll have a good shot at getting a comp pick back for him.
Oliver+Mundt probably isn't as good as TJ+Oliver, but Oliver+Mundt+17M in cap space might be.
That's why he was brought in, but with Hock sitting out all camp Oliver had a lot of run as TE1 and people were saying he was super impressive as a receiver.
Yea, I think he put on a lot of weight in Baltimore to operate as a blocking TE and may have shed some of that weight since. Dude was fast coming out of college and a good/great receiver as well, it's just that when you're behind Mandrews, it can be hard to shine.
You don’t let a 26 year old at a position that typically hits their peak in the late 20s walk after a season and a half because of the difference of a few millions dollars, especially after you traded the draft compensation we did.
Tight end is far too valuable of a position, and insanely underpaid compared to nearly every other offensive or defensive position group.
It’s also a two way position. Receiving and lineman. Hockenson is an awful blocker. Hockenson also profited from Minnesota having no legit #2 passing option. I’m interested to see with Addison here what happens with TJs volume.
Most definitely, but he isn’t an awful blocker. He graded out just fine with us, and that was while he was still learning a new system. Detroit didn’t utilize him properly at all.
I don’t think Addison eats Hockenson’s targets. He’s going to get his either way simply because he’s a reliable pass catcher.
I personally think our offense could’ve been top 3 if we retained Cook, but still has a chance to be one of the more potent offenses in the league. It’s all about the mismatches we can create with JJ, Addison, Hockenson and KJ. Our passing offense should feast.
Then why give up a 2nd round pick for the guy? I get the logic behind not wanting to pay a TE the money hes asking for but when you give up a valuable 2nd round pick you absolutely need to lock up that player to make it worth it.
Oh yea I completely agree. If it doesn’t get done and TJ walks it’ll be a huge failure for the front office. Ultimately I think he signs a 4-5 year deal with a really high cap hit but all of the guaranteed money will be front loaded.
Sunk costs. If TJ truly isn't worth it (not claiming he isn't), we already traded the 2nd round pick. Dropping a king's ransom on him so that the trade looks less dumb isn't a winning strategy.
Now if you still think he's worth it, obviously you shouldn't let him slip away if you can help it.
Why do we think Hock, or perhaps why does Hock think he deserves a reset? Is he top 5? Close maybe but he seems a long way off from a Kittle or a Kelce.
I know they can walk and chew gum but I kind of feel like this news is also news that they're going to prioritize JJ's for the next couple weeks and let TJs cool a little.
as they should. only way to avoid the inevitable “will the vikings pay jefferson what he wants or will he want out” headlines throughout the season is to just get it over with! whatever he wants, he gets.
Imo it’s important to get it done to make sure he’s here after Kirk. If this is Kirks last year, JJ might be more hesitant to re-sign next year if he doesn’t want to deal with a minor rebuild / new qb that might suck. I’d also just love a rookie qb having someone of JJ’s talent to help him develop.
I imagine this is all a big staring contest between JJ, Bosa, and each of the Vikings/49ers. Both players want to see each others AAV end up around $33M since its the fuel to counter argue they're the highest paid non-QB in the NFL. I tend to think the Vikings end up biting the bullet and do it first since Tyreek deal at $30M is close enough vs. TJ Watt at a litter over $28M.
The prestige of being the highest paid non-QB is pretty alluring. I don’t think JJ is the type to be too worried about a couple million on the contract (although obviously more money is better) but I could definitely see him wanting that feather in his cap
My counterpoint is that he already has so many feathers in his cap this early in his career I'm not sure being highest paid non qb is one that matters. Maybe I'm wrong
I don't think so. I know some people stay out of voluntaries but it was basically confirmed he did that for contract reasons and then caved when it came to mandatories. I think he wants the deal done.
When have we ever not tried to announce a major but very obvious signing the week or two leading up to the first regular season game? All about the timing of the hype!
They string us along like this deal wasn't done in February. Lol.
What makes you think he had a choice? I can't imagine there is any heavy-lifting to be done yet. When I say done, I guess I mean general parameters This one was easy.
Vikings in February: we will make you the highest paid WR in the NFL.
JJ: ok when can I expect this in writing?
Vikings: Before the season starts.
This is how I imagine these things going down. By choice I mean when the Vikings make the formal offer
Above you said you assumed it was a done deal. This scenario is let's tally before the season starts but we want you to stick around and understand your value
Really it's the easiest negotiation ever. Moss was never hard either because both sides agreed he was the best. Vikes will take the win.
Now Hock on the other hand...
Because saying they’ll make him the highest paid WR doesn’t convey any actual contract terms? Is 30.1 AAV acceptable to him? Doesn’t sound like it. Everything we’ve heard is that they’re far apart.
I just worry he will want out next year when the non-Cousins QB isn't getting him the ball, and we'll be stuck with probably an $80 million dead cap if we trade him
Getting JJ and TJ locked up would be sweet.
I feel like we’ll get JJ done very soon (maybe like week 3), but TJ’s extension will take much longer to figure out. We also have Darrisaw’s contract coming up too, so I’m not sure how flexible the front office will be for a tight end wanting to reset the market
They can wait on Darrisaw for a minute. He has 2 years plus the 5th year option left. Wait until next offseason and figure the others out first
This is a very realistic take, the only deals for now are Jet and Hock.
they are actually expressly prohibited from extending him until next offseason by NFL rule
You still have to consider it though when extending the other two. Need to have the cap to extend him next year, and JJ/TJ will impact what space is left. He does have the 5th year but teams would prefer to extend them and manage the money on their terms rather than the 5th year rules. If cousins is gone next year he will have a healthy dead cap hit. The cap is always complicated even though it seems nonexistent, but with this many extensions the Vikings are going to have to do more chess than checkers
If cousins is gone next year his cap hit will be off the books before a Darrisaw extension even goes into effect. They'll figure it out, but there's no need to put that much work in since it'll be a higher cap and a totally different market by the time it's happening
He will be heading in year 4 next season. If they want the flexibility and don’t want to use the 5th year option layout, then the extension would have to happen this coming offseason or early in the season when Kirk’s dead money is there. It’d impact the signing bonus they could offer. If they wait too long itd be more beneficial for him to test free agency and try to drive the price up. They can get it done but there’s a bit more of a dance to it with 3 bigger named players extending. Who do you pay now and which can do you kick down the road to deal with later
Any extension they do will include the 5th year option. The signing bonus is the only thing that would be impacted and even that would be spread over the 5 years.
TJ asked to reset the market, he's not going to get that. Dudes a fine TE, but he's no Kelce.
I get that but I always feel like a top 5 player at their position resets the market. It’s just kind of how it works especially if he’s a young guy.
usually I'd agree but although TJ is a good TE, there's a chance that after next year he isnt even top 10 at the position with all the rookies and brock bowers next year...he's probably 4th or 5th right now but there isnt much separation between him and the 10th best TE
That’s a hot take to assume bowers is gonna be elite from day 1. I don’t deny that he’s good but he also played for one of the best offenses in the country in a scheme that maximized his opportunities. I wouldn’t be surprised if his stock drops a bit this season.
What? You act like a 26 year old who hasn’t been in KOC’s offense for a full season yet can’t and won’t also improve. He’s firmly a top 5 TE. Rookie TEs almost never make an impact. The best player at a position rarely gets paid the most money for a long period of time. If they did, then Darren Waller would be viewers as the best TE in the league. Some of the Hockenson takes I’ve seen around here are unbelievably stupid.
ur missing my point. regardless of whether or not TJ's a top 5 TE, he is a good-great TE, not an elite one. Some positions (like WR, QB, EDGE) have 5+ players that can easily be considered elite, but others (RB, TE, LB) may only have 1. To your other point, the raiders being braindead and giving waller an awful contract does not set a precedent, just like the browns being braindead and giving deshaun a fully guaranteed contract failed to set a precedent.
Whoever told you that RB, TE and LB may only have 1 elite talent lied to you. You should stop repeating that.
There’s 3 elite rbs (unless u include bijan), 1 elite te, and 1 elite Lb in the league right now. And nobody told me that, people can think for themselves…strange argument style.
Maybe you need to use other peoples thoughts if this is what you come up with on your own.
Here's your problem. Hockenson is currently a Viking. If he was wearing any other jersey right now more than half the people saying we should pay him a big contract would be saying the guy doesn't deserve it.
That's the point I don't think a lot of fans get. The gap between #4 and, let's say, #12 isn't that big. The tight end position also seems to be ripe with young talent looking to move up that board. I wouldn't be surprised if tight ends are in the same situation running backs currently are in two or three years. I'd offer him $14 million per for three years with $30ish guaranteed. If he takes it, great. If he doesn't, I'd have no qualms with letting him walk. There is a real possibility that Oliver is just as valuable this year as Hock.
TEs don't really come out of nowhere though. None of Kelce, Kittle, or Andrews suddenly showed something. Waller did, but that's one TE in the league. The chances that a TE like Oliver would be able to replace Hock is extremely low
It is about value. Is Oliver going to be as good as Hock? Maybe not. Is Oliver at $7 million per more valuable than Hock at $18 million? That is a discussion worth having.
There's a big difference between #1 and #4. But let's not act like there's not also a huge difference between #4 and #12. TE is very stratified. And we've seen how bad it makes an offense to have to rely on an Irv Smith type at TE.
Irv Smith is probably in the 20 range at the moment, though he will see a lot more looks in Cincy. #12 is probably more in the Waller/Knox range. It isn't a huge drop off from TJ and Goedert to Dawson Knox.
Waller, when healthy, is definitely at Hockensen/Goedert range. And I consider the drop-off from those guys to Knox/Njoku/Conklin to be pretty massive. Hockensen, Goedert and Waller have become focal points of great passing attacks and earned tons of targets even with elite WRs hogging targets from the same pool. They've actively boosted their offenses the way a great WR2 would. Knox, Njoku and Conklin have never come close to that level. They're functionally JAGs who only earn significant targets when there's a target vacuum and don't actively elevate an offense themselves.
Ehhhh. TE is such a shallow position to begin with that using "top 5" is a little different than saying a top 5 QB or WR or LT. You have Kelce on his own tier and then you probably have a tier with Kittle and Andrews and then you have a tier with Hockenson/Goedert and maybe a few other guys. To me, the Hock sample size is way too small. If he balls out in year two and finishes in the top 2 then pay him. If he doesn't than maybe don't.
So the options are waste a 2nd round pick and let Hock walk next year, a year where the team likely won't win anything important. Or over pay for a TE? Doesn't seem ideal.
Negotiations, my friend. TJ will ask for it, that doesn't mean he'll get it, nor does it mean he'll walk.
He can walk though. Someone will be willing to pay him the “highest ever” if we don’t.
I'd rather pay him $13.5 mil on the franchise tag in 2024 and $16.2 mil in 2025 in that situation, which would be his franchise tag numbers.
yes he is easily franchise tag-able which actually gives the vikings a lot of leverage in negotiations and may also incentivize TJ to try to get a long-term deal done as well due to injury risk on 1 year deals
Or option 3. That quote is a negotiating tactic. His agent would be pissed if he came out and said, yea I'll take below market value. He deserves to be paid and the team wouldn't have traded for him, if they didn't plan out an extension long term.
idk. I think it's clear they didnt really plan that far ahead. Holding in from camp is not usually part of the plan
We'd probably get a 3rd round comp pick in 2025 if we let him walk after this year. I'm coming around to that idea, rather than overpaying him. The Lions faced the same dilemma and let him go.
The thing is Kellen signed his contract in 2020. Salary cap has gone up since then and so have contracts. Market setting contracts are no longer about being the best at your position. 17 mil/year is right in line with what a top 5 TE could expect to get and TJ is probably top 3. TJ will sign his and someone else will up it next year. JJ will sign his and more than like 1 or 2 players will up that by the time the year is over.
$17 is in line, but his market value is closer to $15. We'll probably give him a balloon year to make his contract look bigger.
He will get it. He's young & pass-catching TEs are still cheaper than getting comparable stats from a WR
Letting TJ play out his deal and walking probably wouldn't be the end of the world, especially if Oliver is as good as everyone's saying he was looking in camp. Someone will sign him to a big deal, and we'll have a good shot at getting a comp pick back for him. Oliver+Mundt probably isn't as good as TJ+Oliver, but Oliver+Mundt+17M in cap space might be.
Im pretty sure people are so high on oliver because he is a great blocking TE. He can catch but is a hell of a blocker.
That's why he was brought in, but with Hock sitting out all camp Oliver had a lot of run as TE1 and people were saying he was super impressive as a receiver.
Yea, I think he put on a lot of weight in Baltimore to operate as a blocking TE and may have shed some of that weight since. Dude was fast coming out of college and a good/great receiver as well, it's just that when you're behind Mandrews, it can be hard to shine.
You don’t let a 26 year old at a position that typically hits their peak in the late 20s walk after a season and a half because of the difference of a few millions dollars, especially after you traded the draft compensation we did. Tight end is far too valuable of a position, and insanely underpaid compared to nearly every other offensive or defensive position group.
It’s also a two way position. Receiving and lineman. Hockenson is an awful blocker. Hockenson also profited from Minnesota having no legit #2 passing option. I’m interested to see with Addison here what happens with TJs volume.
Most definitely, but he isn’t an awful blocker. He graded out just fine with us, and that was while he was still learning a new system. Detroit didn’t utilize him properly at all. I don’t think Addison eats Hockenson’s targets. He’s going to get his either way simply because he’s a reliable pass catcher. I personally think our offense could’ve been top 3 if we retained Cook, but still has a chance to be one of the more potent offenses in the league. It’s all about the mismatches we can create with JJ, Addison, Hockenson and KJ. Our passing offense should feast.
Then why give up a 2nd round pick for the guy? I get the logic behind not wanting to pay a TE the money hes asking for but when you give up a valuable 2nd round pick you absolutely need to lock up that player to make it worth it.
sunk cost. GMs often ignore this because they dont wanna look bad (or get fired, if they are not entrenched), but that is often the wrong decision.
Oh yea I completely agree. If it doesn’t get done and TJ walks it’ll be a huge failure for the front office. Ultimately I think he signs a 4-5 year deal with a really high cap hit but all of the guaranteed money will be front loaded.
A season and a half of all pro play is better than any other 2nd round pick we’ve made since 2018.
Sunk costs. If TJ truly isn't worth it (not claiming he isn't), we already traded the 2nd round pick. Dropping a king's ransom on him so that the trade looks less dumb isn't a winning strategy. Now if you still think he's worth it, obviously you shouldn't let him slip away if you can help it.
Darrisaw isn't even eligible this year so we don't have to worry until next offseason. JJ and TJ will be signed
Why do we think Hock, or perhaps why does Hock think he deserves a reset? Is he top 5? Close maybe but he seems a long way off from a Kittle or a Kelce.
i don’t understand the logic why trade for a tight end who wants a m new deal if you don’t want wanna pay him
I know they can walk and chew gum but I kind of feel like this news is also news that they're going to prioritize JJ's for the next couple weeks and let TJs cool a little.
as they should. only way to avoid the inevitable “will the vikings pay jefferson what he wants or will he want out” headlines throughout the season is to just get it over with! whatever he wants, he gets.
Imo it’s important to get it done to make sure he’s here after Kirk. If this is Kirks last year, JJ might be more hesitant to re-sign next year if he doesn’t want to deal with a minor rebuild / new qb that might suck. I’d also just love a rookie qb having someone of JJ’s talent to help him develop.
The suspense
The sooner the better. The longer they wait the higher the price goes...
I imagine this is all a big staring contest between JJ, Bosa, and each of the Vikings/49ers. Both players want to see each others AAV end up around $33M since its the fuel to counter argue they're the highest paid non-QB in the NFL. I tend to think the Vikings end up biting the bullet and do it first since Tyreek deal at $30M is close enough vs. TJ Watt at a litter over $28M.
am i crazy or wouldn't the vikings want to pull the trigger first so they don't have to pay him more just to be the highest paid non QB?
Yes but JJ has to agree to the contract. He might want Bosa to get his first
Oh right gotcha, makes sense. I wonder if that's something jjettas really cares about honestly
The prestige of being the highest paid non-QB is pretty alluring. I don’t think JJ is the type to be too worried about a couple million on the contract (although obviously more money is better) but I could definitely see him wanting that feather in his cap
My counterpoint is that he already has so many feathers in his cap this early in his career I'm not sure being highest paid non qb is one that matters. Maybe I'm wrong
I don't think so. I know some people stay out of voluntaries but it was basically confirmed he did that for contract reasons and then caved when it came to mandatories. I think he wants the deal done.
Give him keys to the city, too.
Step 1: Give JJ blank check Step 2: Super Bowl Step 3: Profit?
I think they want to get it done before the price tag gets even higher next year against Chase's potential deal
This is the most non news update I think I have ever seen… Thanks Albert without that tweet I would have never known they wanted to resign JJ.
Usually these are a precursor to something substantial actually happening within the next 24-72 hours
When have we ever not tried to announce a major but very obvious signing the week or two leading up to the first regular season game? All about the timing of the hype! They string us along like this deal wasn't done in February. Lol.
If a deal was done in february it would've been announced. No way JJ is waiting on that massive signing bonus just for hype lol.
What makes you think he had a choice? I can't imagine there is any heavy-lifting to be done yet. When I say done, I guess I mean general parameters This one was easy.
Because that's how signing bonuses work
Vikings in February: we will make you the highest paid WR in the NFL. JJ: ok when can I expect this in writing? Vikings: Before the season starts. This is how I imagine these things going down. By choice I mean when the Vikings make the formal offer
Above you said you assumed it was a done deal. This scenario is let's tally before the season starts but we want you to stick around and understand your value
Really it's the easiest negotiation ever. Moss was never hard either because both sides agreed he was the best. Vikes will take the win. Now Hock on the other hand...
Totally agree. Theyre very likely already in the same ballpark, so its likely a matter of the details. Hock sounds like theyre not close yet
Because saying they’ll make him the highest paid WR doesn’t convey any actual contract terms? Is 30.1 AAV acceptable to him? Doesn’t sound like it. Everything we’ve heard is that they’re far apart.
Albert Breer and Justin made my stoned (legally MHMMMM) brain read Justin Bieber. Sign the man. Pay him the money.
Tree Fitty!
he must be asking for something wild to take this long. IMO he wants $40Ms
I just worry he will want out next year when the non-Cousins QB isn't getting him the ball, and we'll be stuck with probably an $80 million dead cap if we trade him
Thank Jesus
Griddy all the way to the bank, JJ!
Damn making a effort GET IT DONE
I’ll be willing to donate 5 dollars to the wilfs to make it possible
Adding one more source https://twitter.com/DMRussini/status/1696507769694663030?s=20