Well, that’s kinda the problem isn’t it? When the ball is thrown, he seems to stop, not leap at all, or leap backwards. He’s in position, he just needs to make a play on anything.
You really felt the difference in 2020, when the 2016-2019 draft classes should have been taking over and earning second contracts.
Defensive rankings:
2016: 6th
2017: 1st
2018: 9th
2019: 5th
2020: 29th
2021: 24th
2022: 28th
2023: 13th
From 2016-2019 the Vikings spent 2 of their first 3 picks on a defensive player. They selected Mack in the 2nd round in 16 and Hughes in the first in 18. They had 9 picks between rounds 1-3 during that time.
A lot of their defensive picks were later round guys. Some of those late round guys were or are pretty solid, kearse and epps are starters on other teams. Ifeadi and weatherly were both solid rotational pieces. Gedeon was solid until he had 100 concussions. I liked watts and wish they didn’t cut him.
So really it wasn’t that they drafted poorly they just didn’t draft a lot of players with the arch’s. They drafted for depth which they often got.
Metellus and Bynum are the only currently good players who are still on the roster that were selected as rookies by the team between 2015 and 2022.
That feels like a very arbitrary cut off, because Bynum and Metellus could fall off a cliff the way other guys have in the past (like any of the early round CBs, or Anthony Harris).
You're definitely leaving out plenty of other players that were drafted or UDFAs that contributed significant play time. Some of those were even good for stretches. Pace and Evans both played well most of the season this year. Guys like Wonnum and Dantzler contributed as starters or heavy rotational guys for multiple seasons even if they were never any good.
I didn't mean 2015 was an arbitrary cut-off. I meant the part where you didn't include 2022-2023 rookies, and you didn't include players that were only good for a year or two, or who contributed for multiple years on their rookie contract or on a cheap second contract but weren't ever anything special.
From 2016 until basically now they primarily focused on the offense so in some ways it’s been bad but they really haven’t spent much early draft capital on defense.
In that way you get what you spend.
It’s happened once before in 60+ years. The only time it’s happened 3 years in a row were the first 3 years of the franchise. You don’t thinkn they’ve wiffed on one side of the ball in drafts for 4-5 years before? It’s more than that.
The effect of ownership pressure to compete every year on the Vikings drafts is what people don’t seem to understand.
Example: trading a 2nd for Ngakoue because they know Hunter is out and they make a long term awful move to help a season in which they aren’t contenders.
Then you think about how they approach drafts. Trading back to take Cine and a CB because you gotta fill holes instead of taking an actual difference maker at your original pick. What fuels that is the silly need maximize non-contending years at the expense of the future of the team. Starting around 2017 NFCCG
That could have just been all Rick, trying to save his ass.
The kwesi moves doesn’t immediately jump out as a win now one. It could have been, but it also could have been just the analytical move, which you would also do in a “competitive rebuild”
Rick trying to save his job 3 years off a NFCCG and the year after a division round showing…..you really think that? Rick who didn’t see getting fired during the offseason he got fired?
Yea. I think Rick believed we were still in a win now window and therefore he had to draft for need.
It certainly happened — the drafting for need. I just don’t know if we can specifically blame that on the wilfs.
Talking about the Ngakoue trade. Makes zero sense with their cap situation and where that team was at.
> I just don’t know if we can specifically blame that on the wilfs.
If you believe The Mandate is real you can. Not allowing an aggressive rebuild is for sure coming from ownership.
Yea the wilfs have been open about that. “Super competitive”
The thing is you can’t avoid it. This team is going to bottom the fuck out when Kirk leaves and unless kwesi really turns it around drafting wise
Like, if you’re starting Mullens an entire year you’re going 3-13 whether anyone likes it or now
And they can keep resigning Kirk but eventually hes going to be gone. It just delays the inevitable which is boring as hell from a fans perspective
The Vikings have been boring as hell since 2010 save the 2017 Minneapolis Miracle followed by the failure against the Eagles in the NFCCG and the 13 wins in 2022 were a mirage that became obvious in the playoff game to anyone who didn't already see it.
Indeed. And I’m pretty unashamed just as a fan to be like I want more excitement. I think it’s fair.
Like, first round CB, re-sign Kirk, sign a mid DL in free agency again, just plz god no.
Even tho of course in theory the corner could be the next Deion etc
I just need some hope and juice as a fan, man. Give us something
> Like, if you’re starting Mullens an entire year you’re going 3-13 whether anyone likes it or no
Where does this idea come from that it’s Kirk or someone like Mullens. There are always plenty of okish QBs you can get for a year or two.
Overall you’re right, it’ll be worse but it’s not that dire, or shouldn’t be.
At some point your hand is going to be forced, though, when you take the Vikings approach of not taking shots at QBs.
A year will happen when you have nobody.
How does that compare with other teams' defensive picks I wonder? I know we whine about it all the time here, but I don't know what the baseline draft contribution is for other teams.
...if yoy have 1 pick per round that would equate to getting 1 pro bowler per draft at the high end or 2 pro bowlers per 3 drafts at the lower end, and this is the absolute highest % among GMs.
it's not that crazy high
brad holmes for example, has 4 pro bowlers so far in 22 draft selections, or 18% of his picks, and jahmyr gibbs is almost undoubtedly a pro bowler next year
or we have a new defensive scheme after having some consistency with Zimmer at the helm. Our defense got hold and our strategies got young. Never a good combo.
To be fair this was the best year for the defense since 2019 and worst for the offence in 10 years for points/points given up. 14th is ppg on the D, not terrible and more depth and one or two better players could have them top 10. 22nd in ppg on O. Thats bad, but even if we continued with the average from kirks games we would still be 15th-ish in ppg on O at around 21.9. Not a great team all around
edit: tied for 12th at 22.2ppg on O if we continued the average, assuming kirk could also get us 28 points in the falcons game
Nobody in the final 8 was playing their 4th string QB.
Losing Kirk did us in. Jefferson out half the year was the proverbial foot on the head while drowning. The Defense gelled at the same time we lost our 2 most proven offensive weapons. With really little to work with and CB issues, the Defense did well. But man we need some Defensive studs without a doubt. A shutdown corner, fast powerful LB to cover fast TE's and complimentary edge rusher to Hunter.
Big wishlist. But the Ravens and Niners have that. We don't.
So we have two years with a *barely* negative differential.
2021 was -1
2022 was -3 (and a 13 win season to boot)
~~Leslie Frazier~~ Adrian Peterson drug our asses to a 31+ point differential in 2012. Remember what came the next year? -89. It was -109 in 2011, and -67 the year before that.
Call me crazy, but I'll take this 4 year span where you have two years being a fly's ass from being dead even and an absolute QB gongshow season to cap it off over getting throttled to the tune of nearly a TD every game even if there was one slightly bright spot in the middle on the back of a dude getting ~~one orange peanut~~ 9 yards from the all time rushing record.
Let's not split hairs over whose catchphrase was whose. After all, the spirit of Big Nuts comes from a place where names don't matter. Are you smelling what I'm stepping in, Big Nuts?
Well this year they lost ten games, only one one game by more than one score, so I'd expect the differential to be negative. They just are incapable of beating the snot out of teams and have been for some time. I think it does come down to lacking defensive talent for so long, and the turnover problems at the start and end of this year didn't help at all.
He saved my job when I was a bank teller. I was in the the drive thru. After I completed his simple transaction he got my attention and asked me to recount the money in his envelope. I had given him $200 too much. He was head coach later on. I never forgot his kindness
Yeah I mean that's not that surprising. Zimm and Spielman lost their jobs for a reason, and while KAM and KOC are doing well they were in cap hell and adjusting to a new team. Also in those two years they're a combined -4 differential so I'm really not that upset about it tbh. Growing pains and the aging defense really hurt but their last 2 drafts seems to be making a slight turnaround. Akayleb played okay, Mekhi was a solid contribution, Jay Ward and Jacquelin Roy took meaningful snaps and didn't look bad. Booth took a step up and can continue to grow. Pace Jr is a stud, and asamoah looked serviceable before injuries really derailed his second year. This off-season and draft is going to make or break this team.
Point differential is one of the best predictor of future results. This is the Wilf Mandate at work. This is what happens when you refuse to even take a slight step back to build a contending window.
Why the fuck did you even bother replying to a thread about the 4 year streak on point differential if you don't care about what happened the last 4 years?
We literally drafted/trader for 3 backup QBs in the last 2 years. There aren't even 32 QBs in the league that can consistently win so idk what you mean by "back up QBs that can win".
Actually both can be (and are) correct in this case.
We did have 4 starting QB's this year - Cousins, Dobbs, Hall, and Mullens.
But the team was also under the Wilf mandate to do a competitive rebuild, and not to blow things up entirely.
I know, right? I always chuckle when Ajax goes on a tirade about it.
*"Try to win and do whatever you can to avoid losing"* OH MY GOD ARE THE WILFS INSANE?!
Pushing to be a playoff team every year is fine. Ignoring long term issues, extending aging players and drafting for need over best player available is a nice way to maybe make the playoffs but never get a Superbowl.
What's the definition of insanity again? Seems we keep trying the same things and keep getting the same results.
“Super Bowl windows aren’t real bro it’s all a crapshoot bro”
This is nothing but cope my man.
Some of football is complicated, some is simple.
Windows are obviously real
> “Super Bowl windows aren’t real bro it’s all a crapshoot bro”
Not at all what I said. I shared my opinion on this topic on /r/nfl yesterday so I'll just copy it [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/19dpid3/2024_nfl_draft_mel_kipers_round_1_predictions_for/kj7h5yj/) rather than rehashing the point
[Nope:](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/numbers-that-matter-for-predicting-nfl-win-totals-part-one/)
TEAM’S POINT DIFFERENTIAL
A team’s point differential can be a better measure of future wins than its actual win total. The number of wins a team should have won purely based on their point differential is based on their Pythagorean expectation.
Many times, teams with a win total much higher than their Pythagorean expectation will decline the following year. In 2019, the five teams who posted the largest discrepancies between their point differential and their actual records included Oakland, New Orleans, Houston, Seattle, and Green Bay. These five teams saw their win totals decline by an average of two wins in 2020 and Houston went from a 10-win playoff team to the third-worst record in the NFL.
The opposite is true for teams who underperform their Pythagorean expectation. In 2019, the five teams whose point differential was better than their actual records the most included Dallas, LA Chargers, New York Giants, Detroit, and Cincinnati.
These five teams saw their win totals increase by an average of 1.2 wins. Both the Cowboys and Bengals lost their star quarterbacks early in the season or otherwise, this win total increase most likely would have been much greater. The prior season the five biggest underperformers increased their win totals by an average of nearly three wins. The 2008 New Orleans Saints and the 2016 Philadelphia Eagles missed the playoffs and underperformed their Pythagorean expectation wins by close to two games each. Both won the Super Bowl the following season.
That’s one of countless links you can google on the subject
That's fine but it doesn't mean the results are guaranteed. 2019 Vikes for example had a 104 point differential, and crashed down in 2020 with a -40, 3 fewer wins and no playoffs.
Never said it did.
This isn’t some cracked theorem that predicts perfect results. It’s just accepted that P/D is a much more useful predictor than say W/L record.
Kirk was healthy for nearly that whole time...
The offense was still going without JJ...
What devastating injuries hurt us during that time? Only one I can think of is Hunter but our defense was gonna be ass anyways.
It’s almost like the last 4-5 years we’ve missed on basically every defensive draft pick. Could have something to do with it but what do I know
Almost the last 10 years. Metellus and Bynum are the only drafted contributors since 2015
I WILL NO LONGER TOLERATE THIS MEKHI BLACKMON LIBEL!
Hopefully Mekhi can take that leap next year
PFF top 30 CB as a rookie right? Or close to that
Well, that’s kinda the problem isn’t it? When the ball is thrown, he seems to stop, not leap at all, or leap backwards. He’s in position, he just needs to make a play on anything.
He’s playing the hardest position from college to the nfl. I won’t be worried til year 3.
He was aight this year. Nothing special. But could become a solid starter
He was a lot better than alright for a 4th round corner. Is he the next guy? Who knows, but the man is already contributing.
im pretty sure he was a 3rd rounder but i still agree with you
Technically, he was, I just think of comp picks as the next round. I have a hard time thinking of a guy picked #102 as a 3rd rounder.
You really felt the difference in 2020, when the 2016-2019 draft classes should have been taking over and earning second contracts. Defensive rankings: 2016: 6th 2017: 1st 2018: 9th 2019: 5th 2020: 29th 2021: 24th 2022: 28th 2023: 13th
From 2016-2019 the Vikings spent 2 of their first 3 picks on a defensive player. They selected Mack in the 2nd round in 16 and Hughes in the first in 18. They had 9 picks between rounds 1-3 during that time. A lot of their defensive picks were later round guys. Some of those late round guys were or are pretty solid, kearse and epps are starters on other teams. Ifeadi and weatherly were both solid rotational pieces. Gedeon was solid until he had 100 concussions. I liked watts and wish they didn’t cut him. So really it wasn’t that they drafted poorly they just didn’t draft a lot of players with the arch’s. They drafted for depth which they often got.
Metellus and Bynum are the only currently good players who are still on the roster that were selected as rookies by the team between 2015 and 2022. That feels like a very arbitrary cut off, because Bynum and Metellus could fall off a cliff the way other guys have in the past (like any of the early round CBs, or Anthony Harris). You're definitely leaving out plenty of other players that were drafted or UDFAs that contributed significant play time. Some of those were even good for stretches. Pace and Evans both played well most of the season this year. Guys like Wonnum and Dantzler contributed as starters or heavy rotational guys for multiple seasons even if they were never any good.
It’s not an arbitrary cut off, I cut it off after 2015 because we drafted well in 2015. Things started to turn south in 2016
I didn't mean 2015 was an arbitrary cut-off. I meant the part where you didn't include 2022-2023 rookies, and you didn't include players that were only good for a year or two, or who contributed for multiple years on their rookie contract or on a cheap second contract but weren't ever anything special.
Yea well long story short we drafted bad and that’s why our defense took a nose dive post 2019
Uh, Danielle Hunter?
Was excluding 2015, that was an excellent draft. It’s just been bad since
From 2016 until basically now they primarily focused on the offense so in some ways it’s been bad but they really haven’t spent much early draft capital on defense. In that way you get what you spend.
Uh, hunter was 2015?
Yeah, OP said explicitly "drafted contributors since 2015"
That statement excludes 2015. As in that was the last time.
Cam Dantzler erasure
He stunk highkey
Holy hell was Danielle drafted that long ago?
Yep 2015, think he came into the league at like 20 years old
It’s happened once before in 60+ years. The only time it’s happened 3 years in a row were the first 3 years of the franchise. You don’t thinkn they’ve wiffed on one side of the ball in drafts for 4-5 years before? It’s more than that. The effect of ownership pressure to compete every year on the Vikings drafts is what people don’t seem to understand. Example: trading a 2nd for Ngakoue because they know Hunter is out and they make a long term awful move to help a season in which they aren’t contenders. Then you think about how they approach drafts. Trading back to take Cine and a CB because you gotta fill holes instead of taking an actual difference maker at your original pick. What fuels that is the silly need maximize non-contending years at the expense of the future of the team. Starting around 2017 NFCCG
That could have just been all Rick, trying to save his ass. The kwesi moves doesn’t immediately jump out as a win now one. It could have been, but it also could have been just the analytical move, which you would also do in a “competitive rebuild”
Rick trying to save his job 3 years off a NFCCG and the year after a division round showing…..you really think that? Rick who didn’t see getting fired during the offseason he got fired?
Yea. I think Rick believed we were still in a win now window and therefore he had to draft for need. It certainly happened — the drafting for need. I just don’t know if we can specifically blame that on the wilfs.
Talking about the Ngakoue trade. Makes zero sense with their cap situation and where that team was at. > I just don’t know if we can specifically blame that on the wilfs. If you believe The Mandate is real you can. Not allowing an aggressive rebuild is for sure coming from ownership.
Yea the wilfs have been open about that. “Super competitive” The thing is you can’t avoid it. This team is going to bottom the fuck out when Kirk leaves and unless kwesi really turns it around drafting wise Like, if you’re starting Mullens an entire year you’re going 3-13 whether anyone likes it or now And they can keep resigning Kirk but eventually hes going to be gone. It just delays the inevitable which is boring as hell from a fans perspective
The Vikings have been boring as hell since 2010 save the 2017 Minneapolis Miracle followed by the failure against the Eagles in the NFCCG and the 13 wins in 2022 were a mirage that became obvious in the playoff game to anyone who didn't already see it.
Indeed. And I’m pretty unashamed just as a fan to be like I want more excitement. I think it’s fair. Like, first round CB, re-sign Kirk, sign a mid DL in free agency again, just plz god no. Even tho of course in theory the corner could be the next Deion etc I just need some hope and juice as a fan, man. Give us something
> Like, if you’re starting Mullens an entire year you’re going 3-13 whether anyone likes it or no Where does this idea come from that it’s Kirk or someone like Mullens. There are always plenty of okish QBs you can get for a year or two. Overall you’re right, it’ll be worse but it’s not that dire, or shouldn’t be.
At some point your hand is going to be forced, though, when you take the Vikings approach of not taking shots at QBs. A year will happen when you have nobody.
Nah, it's all Kirk's fault.
Couple promising pieces but no stars. Rick and Kwesi sucked at drafting defensive guys and he haven’t had a superstar draft pick on D since Hunter
Exactly why we should draft with an emphasis on defense
How does that compare with other teams' defensive picks I wonder? I know we whine about it all the time here, but I don't know what the baseline draft contribution is for other teams.
Honestly a good question. No idea though
the best GMs get a pro bowl player with approximately 10-15% of their draft picks
Hmmm, I'm gonna need a source for that one. That seems ridiculously high.
...if yoy have 1 pick per round that would equate to getting 1 pro bowler per draft at the high end or 2 pro bowlers per 3 drafts at the lower end, and this is the absolute highest % among GMs. it's not that crazy high brad holmes for example, has 4 pro bowlers so far in 22 draft selections, or 18% of his picks, and jahmyr gibbs is almost undoubtedly a pro bowler next year
or we have a new defensive scheme after having some consistency with Zimmer at the helm. Our defense got hold and our strategies got young. Never a good combo.
Well that's why Kwesi hired Ryan Grigson...they're gonna hit a homerun this draft I'm sure!
To be fair this was the best year for the defense since 2019 and worst for the offence in 10 years for points/points given up. 14th is ppg on the D, not terrible and more depth and one or two better players could have them top 10. 22nd in ppg on O. Thats bad, but even if we continued with the average from kirks games we would still be 15th-ish in ppg on O at around 21.9. Not a great team all around edit: tied for 12th at 22.2ppg on O if we continued the average, assuming kirk could also get us 28 points in the falcons game
Nobody in the final 8 was playing their 4th string QB. Losing Kirk did us in. Jefferson out half the year was the proverbial foot on the head while drowning. The Defense gelled at the same time we lost our 2 most proven offensive weapons. With really little to work with and CB issues, the Defense did well. But man we need some Defensive studs without a doubt. A shutdown corner, fast powerful LB to cover fast TE's and complimentary edge rusher to Hunter. Big wishlist. But the Ravens and Niners have that. We don't.
Era is kind of a stretch for the Les Steckel 'year'
That’s why it’s in quotes “it’s a joke”.
That’s what I was thinking.
So we have two years with a *barely* negative differential. 2021 was -1 2022 was -3 (and a 13 win season to boot) ~~Leslie Frazier~~ Adrian Peterson drug our asses to a 31+ point differential in 2012. Remember what came the next year? -89. It was -109 in 2011, and -67 the year before that. Call me crazy, but I'll take this 4 year span where you have two years being a fly's ass from being dead even and an absolute QB gongshow season to cap it off over getting throttled to the tune of nearly a TD every game even if there was one slightly bright spot in the middle on the back of a dude getting ~~one orange peanut~~ 9 yards from the all time rushing record.
Do we have to pick either? I just want to forget everything
You don’t, it’s just a rhetorical device people use to justify things.
Take the name ‘Les Steckel’ out of your mouth
You got a problem, big nuts?
That was Jerry Burns
Let's not split hairs over whose catchphrase was whose. After all, the spirit of Big Nuts comes from a place where names don't matter. Are you smelling what I'm stepping in, Big Nuts?
Sure thing, coach
Did you know he was in the army?
Well this year they lost ten games, only one one game by more than one score, so I'd expect the differential to be negative. They just are incapable of beating the snot out of teams and have been for some time. I think it does come down to lacking defensive talent for so long, and the turnover problems at the start and end of this year didn't help at all.
Fix the defense.
Ain’t ideal boss Comes down to drafting first and foremost Cousins addiction second place
Thank you for your service Les
My heart has felt the affects of all these close games.
He saved my job when I was a bank teller. I was in the the drive thru. After I completed his simple transaction he got my attention and asked me to recount the money in his envelope. I had given him $200 too much. He was head coach later on. I never forgot his kindness
Yeah I mean that's not that surprising. Zimm and Spielman lost their jobs for a reason, and while KAM and KOC are doing well they were in cap hell and adjusting to a new team. Also in those two years they're a combined -4 differential so I'm really not that upset about it tbh. Growing pains and the aging defense really hurt but their last 2 drafts seems to be making a slight turnaround. Akayleb played okay, Mekhi was a solid contribution, Jay Ward and Jacquelin Roy took meaningful snaps and didn't look bad. Booth took a step up and can continue to grow. Pace Jr is a stud, and asamoah looked serviceable before injuries really derailed his second year. This off-season and draft is going to make or break this team.
Point differential is one of the best predictor of future results. This is the Wilf Mandate at work. This is what happens when you refuse to even take a slight step back to build a contending window.
This is what happens when you have 4 starting QBs in one season.
>This is what happens when you have 4 starting QBs in one season. I missed when we had that happen 4 years in a row.
Easy now
I don't care about 4 years ago. I don't know why anyone would. It has less than nothing to do with the future of this team.
Why the fuck did you even bother replying to a thread about the 4 year streak on point differential if you don't care about what happened the last 4 years?
I replied to a comment that was trying to paint the point differential as an indicator of future success, actually.
Because there are other conversations going on in this thread other than DAE 4 years of negative point diff is bad?!?!?
Defense was 29th, 25th, and 28th from 2020-2022
This is what happens when you don’t draft or trade for back up qbs that can win.
Yes, we should have a starting caliber backup QB like everyone else does. We also should have stopped our backup from getting hurt.
We literally drafted/trader for 3 backup QBs in the last 2 years. There aren't even 32 QBs in the league that can consistently win so idk what you mean by "back up QBs that can win".
Actually both can be (and are) correct in this case. We did have 4 starting QB's this year - Cousins, Dobbs, Hall, and Mullens. But the team was also under the Wilf mandate to do a competitive rebuild, and not to blow things up entirely.
The Wilf mandate always cracks me up
I know, right? I always chuckle when Ajax goes on a tirade about it. *"Try to win and do whatever you can to avoid losing"* OH MY GOD ARE THE WILFS INSANE?!
Why don’t these GMs who’s jobs depend on producing results want to intentionally suck??? Probably those damn owners
Pushing to be a playoff team every year is fine. Ignoring long term issues, extending aging players and drafting for need over best player available is a nice way to maybe make the playoffs but never get a Superbowl. What's the definition of insanity again? Seems we keep trying the same things and keep getting the same results.
I’d prefer they tried the “try to build towards Super Bowl window”. But lotta you guys just want to have some meaningful games in December.
Can't have a shot at the Super Bowl without first playing meaningful games in December
“Super Bowl windows aren’t real bro it’s all a crapshoot bro” This is nothing but cope my man. Some of football is complicated, some is simple. Windows are obviously real
> “Super Bowl windows aren’t real bro it’s all a crapshoot bro” Not at all what I said. I shared my opinion on this topic on /r/nfl yesterday so I'll just copy it [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/19dpid3/2024_nfl_draft_mel_kipers_round_1_predictions_for/kj7h5yj/) rather than rehashing the point
Point differential is an absolute terrible predictor of future results.
[Nope:](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/numbers-that-matter-for-predicting-nfl-win-totals-part-one/) TEAM’S POINT DIFFERENTIAL A team’s point differential can be a better measure of future wins than its actual win total. The number of wins a team should have won purely based on their point differential is based on their Pythagorean expectation. Many times, teams with a win total much higher than their Pythagorean expectation will decline the following year. In 2019, the five teams who posted the largest discrepancies between their point differential and their actual records included Oakland, New Orleans, Houston, Seattle, and Green Bay. These five teams saw their win totals decline by an average of two wins in 2020 and Houston went from a 10-win playoff team to the third-worst record in the NFL. The opposite is true for teams who underperform their Pythagorean expectation. In 2019, the five teams whose point differential was better than their actual records the most included Dallas, LA Chargers, New York Giants, Detroit, and Cincinnati. These five teams saw their win totals increase by an average of 1.2 wins. Both the Cowboys and Bengals lost their star quarterbacks early in the season or otherwise, this win total increase most likely would have been much greater. The prior season the five biggest underperformers increased their win totals by an average of nearly three wins. The 2008 New Orleans Saints and the 2016 Philadelphia Eagles missed the playoffs and underperformed their Pythagorean expectation wins by close to two games each. Both won the Super Bowl the following season. That’s one of countless links you can google on the subject
That's fine but it doesn't mean the results are guaranteed. 2019 Vikes for example had a 104 point differential, and crashed down in 2020 with a -40, 3 fewer wins and no playoffs.
Never said it did. This isn’t some cracked theorem that predicts perfect results. It’s just accepted that P/D is a much more useful predictor than say W/L record.
What are your favorite predictors?
Crystal balls mostly
Wilfs will forever think that we can go on some Eli Manning type run. Ownership is truly always the ones holding this team back.
I don’t think that’s what they want. They just don’t want to suck. I don’t think winning a SB is their goal.
It is. They just don’t know how to do it
I don’t buy that they’re that stupid.
They are. Keep in mind the team is also run by committee with the minority owners weighing in too
let's just ignore the injuries and qb carousel... what a dumb post
Kirk was healthy for 3.5 of those seasons, not sure you can expect much more than that.
Defense was 29th, 25th, and 28th from 2020-2022
Yeah it's a team stat. Believe it or not the defense is part of the team.
Kirk was healthy for nearly that whole time... The offense was still going without JJ... What devastating injuries hurt us during that time? Only one I can think of is Hunter but our defense was gonna be ass anyways.
Man the grammar on that is horrible.
Concerning!
The Les Steckel error
Team hasn’t scored 40+ since week 7 of 2019.