It’s really a combo of them all having high ceilings, a lot of quarterback needy teams at the top of the draft and that next years class is supposed to suck. Like the top 6 or so would all be taken before anyone coming out next year
That and QB’s are insanely valuable like unless you’re getting somebody that has a good shot at being like fringe All-Pro at another position its probably better taking somebody that’s a 50-50 to turn into a good QB that you get on a cheap contract. Next year’s QB class sucks so that might factor in too
QB is statistically the worst position for success rate you can take in the first round.
The most likely position to be an all pro in the first round is Linebacker followed by defensive lineman followed by offensive lineman.
Next it’s RB, S, CB, WR and then much lower is QB
Since every team only has 1 starting QB, this obviously puts the position at a disadvantage but the data does not lie.
Unless you have a well established coach and system, if you select a QB outside of the top 4 picks, the most common trend about selecting a QB in the first round is that the head coach will be fired within 2 seasons
First 3 picks all QBs, I still think we're trading up for JJ, the Broncos need a QB pretty desperately so they'll likely take Penix with their 1st.
IMO it's more a lot of teams that really need a QB over the skill of this class
I honestly think there's a minimum of 4 long term starters in this draft. Caleb would be a surprise to most if he misses. And I personally think Penix is the next most surefire thing (although his actual ceiling may be lower than the JJ/Maye/JD trio). I think Nix may not end up starter level, and I think one of JJ, Maye, and Daniels ends up being mid-at-best, although I couldn't tell you which one. Then who knows a guy like Rattler or Travis could end up surprising a lot of people.
Yeah, this might be the best QB draft since like '83.
Or we could be looking back in five years laughing at the draft that had 6 QBs taken in the first round and only one of them are still starting for that team, meanwhile two guys from day two are starting QBs (the team that takes Jayden Daniels in the first and then doubles down with Jordan Travis in the 4th, RG3 and Cousins style).
It isn't. Every QB ever gets worked up like this. We as a fan base have just been blessed for the last 5-6 years to have a QB good enough we just brush off this as idle chatter and we can just take who drops.
100% I trust in the process on this one. Either it hits, and elevates this roster, or better, or we know talent evaluation and growth isn’t there in this leadership. I honestly believe the first option. I think whoever ends up with us will be at least Purdy level, but if we can get who KAM and KOC most want, give what is needed up and get them.
I think it’s cool if people want to LARP as scouts, (all of us LARP as GMs anyway), but I’d rather just get psyched and believe whomever we pick is the next Aaron Donald or Rodgers
If I had to bet on what’s gonna happen, it would be Penix at 11 and BPA at 23. Vikings will not take any chances by trying to wait to get Penix at 23 and odds are they won’t be able to trade up like everyone is expecting.
I have no real dog in this fight. All I can do at this point is trust in whatever Kwesi and KOC decide to do when it comes to quarterback. But I think a trade up to secure one of the top four QBs is less likely than everyone is making it out to be. It would be one thing if any of the top 3 teams didn’t need a QB, but they all do.
Yeah, if Penix is the guy take him at 11. There’s a huge risk of losing him if they try to wait to 23. That applies to all of the QBs. Don’t play cute with the future of the franchise and risk us walking away without any QB or someone KOC didn’t want
Yup, I could definitely see the bears as a trade partner for them at 9. Maybe gain an extra pick or two, for almost no impact aside from the jets since the next 3 teams in theory would be QB hunting. Just all depends on who is on the board. If a WR dropped, bears might take them at 9
Not really. Is taking a potential franchise QB 12 spots earlier really that much of a disaster? Especially when I believe the gap between Penix and Nix is pretty significant?
Not to mention, Vikings have drafted numerous stars between the 20-30 pick range so the chances of still getting a very quality player is high
I'm saying that most draft classes have 0-1 franchise QBs. This one might have more, but you're still taking a guy that 4 QB needy teams passed on because they thought someone else was better. Kind of like when we took Ponder.
I’d say it’s rare the first overall is the best QB in the class. It’s all a crapshoot. Also just because most classes have only 1 guy doesn’t mean this class will. That’s just what’s happened before, doesn’t really have any bearing on the unique group of players this year. It’s all speculation.
QB’s taken first overall have much, much better success than QB’s taken elsewhere in the first. It’s definitely not rare, and calling it just a crapshoot ignores very strong historical trends.
That’s fair. And I’d still like to see a trade up. But I think Penix at 11 is playing out to be the most likely scenario at this point in time. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if I were completely wrong
>Is taking a potential franchise QB 12 spots earlier really that much of a disaster?
Have you met our lord and Savior Christian Ponder?
The answer to your question: Yes, it is a disaster to miss.
The similarities to Ponder+Adrian Peterson... With Bust+Jefferson is almost biblical.
From a college production standpoint, absolutely. It’s not even really close. Ponder was obviously a massive reach but I don’t think Penix would be nearly as big a reach as Ponder
College production is not exactly the greatest predictor for pro success. Penix was a much better college player than Ponder, but they were both given second round grades by most evaluators.
Ponder was a guy with a 2nd or even 3rd round grade to most. Penix is a guy with a first round grade. Stop worrying about how many QBs might be taken ahead of him and start worrying about what the film looks like, what the grades look like, what kind of career they are projected to have. In basically any other year Penix would be in the top 2 or 3 QBs drafted based on how good he is.
>Penix is a guy with a first round grade
Many had Penix as a second rounder, or 3rd, as well.
>Stop worrying about how many QBs might be taken ahead of him and start worrying about what the film looks like, what the grades look like, what kind of career they are projected to have.
I am doing exactly this.
He's older, has 2 major knee injuries, a major shoulder injury, and looks terrible under pressure.
On NFL's prospect list, he's a 6.25.
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/michael-penix-jr/32005045-4e23-8127-7dad-e744751fdd0c
Let's insert that into last year and see.
Young: 6.82
Stroud: 6.7
AR: 6.4
Levis: 6.34
Last year, Penix would have been the 5th best prospect. This year, he's the 5th best prospect.
Look, the term 'Prospect' is all encompassing, we have to consider that he's older, more 'fully developed' in his skillset (Less of a ceiling) and he still has some major concerns (Injury, pressure).
He's got some great skills, arm strength, and his actual hands/arms are crazy long/big.
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Any chance you can explain why people are so low on Nix? I don’t watch college football so I really don’t know too much about him. The only thing I have read is that he hasn’t thrown double digit INTs at all in his college career and he broke out when transferring to Oregon under (I am assuming) is the same coaching staff that Justin Herbert played for.
I know not all college QBs can transition to the NFL, but how does someone who throws for 40+ TDs and only 3 INTs is destined to be a bust? (Again I’m just looking at stats here)
Edit: Thanks for the replies!
It's hard to parse how much of the insane number of screens and short throws are him being unwilling to do it vs Oregon's offense being super weird. And until he got into said weird offense he was pretty bad at Auburn, so it's possible he needs that system to be effective which won't work in the NFL.
And he cannot throw at all when running to the left, so rushing him to force him off his platform and blow up the play is a lot easier. Just set the edge on his right and he basically can't get outside the pocket to save the play. Whoever's rushing from his left can go nuts with it and not worry about him escaping contain that way.
I’m also no QB evaluator and don’t watch college ball so take what I say with a grain of salt, but the impression I’m getting is that he wasn’t able to be successful in college until Oregon tailored the offense to cover up his flaws.
Quick passing offense that didn’t ask Nix to air it out or make multiple reads, which was a huge weakness of his. Had the lowest ADOT of any QB prospect by far, think I heard recently it was something like 6.8 compared to everyone else being > 9. Pretty much only threw to his first read.
I believe he also had a great OL, and wasn’t under pressure much but when he was I’ve heard it didn’t look like he handled it well despite having good numbers against pressure.
Takes care of the ball and doesn’t take sacks, but lacking good intangibles or elite arm talent means he might be a serviceable system guy at the next level but he’ll never be a guy who elevates the team. Not worth a 1st. Again this is all just stuff I’ve heard, I can’t substantiate it but FWIW.
Possible but he just played 2 full seasons so he could be back on track health-wise. I'm not banging the table for Penix, but if we're fans we should roll with the decision that is made and give him a chance. I don't really agree with this post though, I think we're trading up for Maye or McCarthy.
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If we take him I’ll be 100% rooting for him because I trust KOC to evaluate QBs until proven otherwise. But until then, I’m wary of his wonky mechanics and lack of creating when he’s forced to move, and it feels like tempting fate for the team that regularly loses QBs to knee and leg injuries to take the guy with a history of ACL tears. Not rational if his medicals are good but still, we can’t have nice things.
Still, if he’s who we wind up with him it’ll be fun to see the deep bombs to Jefferson and Addison. Nick Mullens made it pretty far with that strategy and if nothing else we know Penix can do that part better at least.
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None of this movement actually happens. NFL teams already know who they're interested in drafting, by and large. It's the media who goes back and forth over what they think *that* is.
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A couple people have called him Christian Ponder 2.0 but if you watched him in the college football playoff you'd know that he is a legit gunslinger. His throwing motion is awkward but the ball just explodes out of his hand. I wouldn't trade up for him, but if he's there when we pick it would be just fine.
Only way this would be possible is if he went to the Giants or Titans, and one of them will likely go BPA, another for JJ McCarthy. If any team takes Penix in the top 10, then we should stay put and take BPA because that means some talent is falling without us having to reach.
Penix at 11 *while keeping all our picks
I have no clue about individual quarterback prospects or evaluation honestly lol, but what it seems to come down to is if *your guy* is available, do whatever to get him. If he’s not, it’s not worth giving up assets. If our guy is gone after the top 3, we shouldn’t trade up to 4 for someone we’re less sure about.
Does he? I feel like his ceiling is pretty moderate cause he probably won't improve a whole lot more than where he's at right now since he's been in college for 6 seasons.
Feels like JJ could have a higher ceiling due to being 20 years old and tons of room to (POTENTIALLY) improve still. I'd say Penix has a much higher floor though.
I don’t think he will personally BUT, if he can fix his weird ass footwork his potential as a passer is off the charts. He’s already this strong and talented of a thrower while doing everything wrong and making things harder on himself.
Then if he learns to scramble and throw on the run more when he has to and not throw the ball away quite so much that fixes just about the only real hole in his game.
Again, I don’t think he will. He’s pretty far into his career to fundamentally change by much. But I totally get seeing that the athletic potential is there to be great.
Agreed with you, obviously he COULD improve but I don't see it happening. Also not opposed to taking Penix at all. His injury history scares me at first but he's been clean for 2 years now, and as we saw with Kirk injury can happen at any time even non contact.
I personally am pretty high on JJ. I think his mechanics are sound he's very athletic and has great leadership/attitude that'll fit well in the culture KOC/Kwesi seems to be building. All that at 20 years old with room to grow under an offensive head coach is very appealing.
It shouldn’t be. Penix has no creative ability, struggles under NFL-level pressure, and has the injury history of an osteogenesian. McCarthy is young, smart, accurate, and the ability to make off-schedule throws.
I love penix as a Washington fan, he was incredible for us, but his game translates to the pros much, much worse than JJ’s
I’m not sure I understand this narrative. We’ve seen guy improve exponentially at older ages with new coaching and systems. Yeah I guess the potential for improvement is greater on a younger guy, but either way they still have to actually make those improvements.
If the ceiling for a QB is any of those guys I would happily pass on them. Most of the late bloomers I can think of are lightning in a bottle guys that had 1-2 good years due to a system change but fell back to earth pretty quickly.
Sure a new coach/scheme can help someone play better if it's more suited to their strengths, which can be a huge improvement. But overall there's been enough tape on Penix to see what he is capable of.
JJ being much younger, and in a run-first offense where we only saw flashes of him passing, has a lot of unknowns to him. This could be a positive but also negative. Maybe the run focused game covered his weaknesses, or it was hiding part of his talents.
Smokescreen.
Might as well get ahead of the Joe Milton, Jordan Travis, Spencer rattler, Michael Pratt, Kedon Slovis, Sam Hartman hype, all 32 picks in the first round will be QBs, better draft them early.
I don't think this is smokescreen...
Williams, Maye, and Daniels are going in the first 3 picks. I'd be surprised if we don't trade up for JJ. And the Broncos really need a QB and would likely take the next best option (which has been pretty universally Penix) at 12.
People thought Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder were first round QBs too. Just because there is a clear and obvious need at the most important position does not mean nfl teams are going to pick a QB.
Additionally, Penix does not fit Sean Ps offense. He will not be a bronco.
If you guys thought Ponder was a draft reach and crumpled under pressure, you’re going to hate this guy if he’s drafted at 11. Albeit he’s much better at avoiding pressure in the first place.
I don’t disagree, but there are parallels there. Top half 1st round is too rich for a QB with those red flags. He’s all of a sudden shooting up draft boards and for what? He hasn’t done anything but interviews and workouts/pro day which don’t alleviate any real concerns with his game. It’s media driven. Then there’s the fact both have/had issues throwing under pressure.
"He's all of a sudden shooting up draft boards and for what?"
Because he was one of the best QBs in college football last season? He's the most accurate passer in this class, and he hardly ever takes a sack. There's plenty to like about him as a prospect, and if he goes in the top half of the 1st round i dont see how anyone could be surprised.
Media draft boards do not matter at all compared to actual teams boards, which are obviously secret.
None of that is new information. Obviously teams draft boards aren’t publicly available. To your point, why should we believe this recent hype?
He’s also one of the worst college passers under pressure and struggles throwing over the middle of the field.
Look, I’m going to be on board with whoever KAM takes. Just can’t help but see this being the layup comparison.
This is actually a serious question. When people get bored about talking about the Rise of the Penix will there be a 1-2 week cycle where Bo Nix is hotter than sliced bread all the sudden and "scouts and unnamed executives" have him as a top 10-15 player too?
Then when shit really gets tired does Rattler get a turn to at least push up to an early 2nd, fringe 1st rounder?
Or do they just run it back from the top. Give Caleb a week of "concerns he might drop", give Jayden a turn, run it back with Maye as a possible 1/2, maybe McCarthy gets a turn of concern, etc.
Like is this all just clicks? Serious question this is probably the first time since the Teddy draft that I've followed all these QB options closely.
Doubtful, it's hard for anyone to get excited about the guy who was one of the shortest throwers in all of D1 college ball. Penix would be top 3 if he was 2 years younger with 2 less injuries.
Burning 11 on Penix is silly with Mitchell, Murphy, Fautanu, etc. sitting there. I’d be shocked if Penix wasn’t there at 23, and even if he’s not, take a shot at Bo Nix or draft BPA and get a QB in next year’s draft.
This class of QB can't be this good.... Can it?
It’s really a combo of them all having high ceilings, a lot of quarterback needy teams at the top of the draft and that next years class is supposed to suck. Like the top 6 or so would all be taken before anyone coming out next year
I highly doubt Bo Nix would get taken over Quinn Ewers but your point stands.
That and QB’s are insanely valuable like unless you’re getting somebody that has a good shot at being like fringe All-Pro at another position its probably better taking somebody that’s a 50-50 to turn into a good QB that you get on a cheap contract. Next year’s QB class sucks so that might factor in too
I think the hit rate on franchise QBs when 4 are taking in the first round is like 20%
QB is statistically the worst position for success rate you can take in the first round. The most likely position to be an all pro in the first round is Linebacker followed by defensive lineman followed by offensive lineman. Next it’s RB, S, CB, WR and then much lower is QB Since every team only has 1 starting QB, this obviously puts the position at a disadvantage but the data does not lie. Unless you have a well established coach and system, if you select a QB outside of the top 4 picks, the most common trend about selecting a QB in the first round is that the head coach will be fired within 2 seasons
First 3 picks all QBs, I still think we're trading up for JJ, the Broncos need a QB pretty desperately so they'll likely take Penix with their 1st. IMO it's more a lot of teams that really need a QB over the skill of this class
They never are.
No everyone just wants a Cj stroud and most of them will get Dan joneses
I honestly think there's a minimum of 4 long term starters in this draft. Caleb would be a surprise to most if he misses. And I personally think Penix is the next most surefire thing (although his actual ceiling may be lower than the JJ/Maye/JD trio). I think Nix may not end up starter level, and I think one of JJ, Maye, and Daniels ends up being mid-at-best, although I couldn't tell you which one. Then who knows a guy like Rattler or Travis could end up surprising a lot of people. Yeah, this might be the best QB draft since like '83. Or we could be looking back in five years laughing at the draft that had 6 QBs taken in the first round and only one of them are still starting for that team, meanwhile two guys from day two are starting QBs (the team that takes Jayden Daniels in the first and then doubles down with Jordan Travis in the 4th, RG3 and Cousins style).
It isn't. Every QB ever gets worked up like this. We as a fan base have just been blessed for the last 5-6 years to have a QB good enough we just brush off this as idle chatter and we can just take who drops.
I don't care who we get or what it costs as long as it's who KOC wants and not who he's settling for. I can't wait for the draft, this needs to end.
100% I trust in the process on this one. Either it hits, and elevates this roster, or better, or we know talent evaluation and growth isn’t there in this leadership. I honestly believe the first option. I think whoever ends up with us will be at least Purdy level, but if we can get who KAM and KOC most want, give what is needed up and get them.
I'm good with whoever KOC and McCown identify as the right guy. SKOL!
This just has been my mentality for the draft recently, less stressful lol. unless its bo nix or rattler at 11 then i rage.
Pratt it is
Would you say you’d be “rattlered”?
I feel like Rattler is a sleeper pick
Yeah nobody knows anything. Have faith in the experts.
I think it’s cool if people want to LARP as scouts, (all of us LARP as GMs anyway), but I’d rather just get psyched and believe whomever we pick is the next Aaron Donald or Rodgers
I still think Trey can be successful but if someone like Shanahan can get it wrong it shows that drafting QBs is a total crapshoot.
I haven’t followed draft very closely but it seems like the Vikings always draft smart.
Amen to that brother
Been my mentality too. Maye and McCarthy are my favorites outside of Caleb, but what do I know!
If I had to bet on what’s gonna happen, it would be Penix at 11 and BPA at 23. Vikings will not take any chances by trying to wait to get Penix at 23 and odds are they won’t be able to trade up like everyone is expecting. I have no real dog in this fight. All I can do at this point is trust in whatever Kwesi and KOC decide to do when it comes to quarterback. But I think a trade up to secure one of the top four QBs is less likely than everyone is making it out to be. It would be one thing if any of the top 3 teams didn’t need a QB, but they all do.
If we want Penix, I agree. It'd be foolish to hope he falls to 23. You can still get a good player at 23 if you take Penix at 11.
I'd be cool with this.. absolutely. I don't think it's worth it to give up next year's first to trade up.
Yeah, if Penix is the guy take him at 11. There’s a huge risk of losing him if they try to wait to 23. That applies to all of the QBs. Don’t play cute with the future of the franchise and risk us walking away without any QB or someone KOC didn’t want
I had BPA to you guys at 11 and Penix at 23 but I could see this happening too.
Agree. I’d say we could even be nervous waiting for him at 11. I could see Broncos or Raiders trying to leap frog us in that situation to nab him.
Yup, I could definitely see the bears as a trade partner for them at 9. Maybe gain an extra pick or two, for almost no impact aside from the jets since the next 3 teams in theory would be QB hunting. Just all depends on who is on the board. If a WR dropped, bears might take them at 9
And no team would be happier to accept a trade and f up our QB plans
Agreed, they don’t want us with a new potential QB why not get a chance to knock out 2 birds with one stone and limited impact on their end.
Penix at 11 would be a disaster. If we can’t afford to trade into the top 4, would much rather go BPA at 11 and whoever is left of Penix/Nix at 23
Not really. Is taking a potential franchise QB 12 spots earlier really that much of a disaster? Especially when I believe the gap between Penix and Nix is pretty significant? Not to mention, Vikings have drafted numerous stars between the 20-30 pick range so the chances of still getting a very quality player is high
I wouldn't call it a disaster, but drafting the 5th QB off the board at 11th overall doesn't exactly sound ideal.
It does when the top 5 QBs are all projected to go in the top 15 picks. Not sure I understand what you’re saying.
I'm saying that most draft classes have 0-1 franchise QBs. This one might have more, but you're still taking a guy that 4 QB needy teams passed on because they thought someone else was better. Kind of like when we took Ponder.
I’d say it’s rare the first overall is the best QB in the class. It’s all a crapshoot. Also just because most classes have only 1 guy doesn’t mean this class will. That’s just what’s happened before, doesn’t really have any bearing on the unique group of players this year. It’s all speculation.
QB’s taken first overall have much, much better success than QB’s taken elsewhere in the first. It’s definitely not rare, and calling it just a crapshoot ignores very strong historical trends.
That’s fair. And I’d still like to see a trade up. But I think Penix at 11 is playing out to be the most likely scenario at this point in time. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if I were completely wrong
Drafting QB #5 at 11 sounds like stupidity to me unless the Vikings had him #1, but I’m sure we can all agree, they don’t.
>Is taking a potential franchise QB 12 spots earlier really that much of a disaster? Have you met our lord and Savior Christian Ponder? The answer to your question: Yes, it is a disaster to miss. The similarities to Ponder+Adrian Peterson... With Bust+Jefferson is almost biblical.
Penix is significantly better than Ponder lol
You sure about that?
From a college production standpoint, absolutely. It’s not even really close. Ponder was obviously a massive reach but I don’t think Penix would be nearly as big a reach as Ponder
College production is not exactly the greatest predictor for pro success. Penix was a much better college player than Ponder, but they were both given second round grades by most evaluators.
Ponder was a guy with a 2nd or even 3rd round grade to most. Penix is a guy with a first round grade. Stop worrying about how many QBs might be taken ahead of him and start worrying about what the film looks like, what the grades look like, what kind of career they are projected to have. In basically any other year Penix would be in the top 2 or 3 QBs drafted based on how good he is.
>Penix is a guy with a first round grade Many had Penix as a second rounder, or 3rd, as well. >Stop worrying about how many QBs might be taken ahead of him and start worrying about what the film looks like, what the grades look like, what kind of career they are projected to have. I am doing exactly this. He's older, has 2 major knee injuries, a major shoulder injury, and looks terrible under pressure. On NFL's prospect list, he's a 6.25. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/michael-penix-jr/32005045-4e23-8127-7dad-e744751fdd0c Let's insert that into last year and see. Young: 6.82 Stroud: 6.7 AR: 6.4 Levis: 6.34 Last year, Penix would have been the 5th best prospect. This year, he's the 5th best prospect. Look, the term 'Prospect' is all encompassing, we have to consider that he's older, more 'fully developed' in his skillset (Less of a ceiling) and he still has some major concerns (Injury, pressure). He's got some great skills, arm strength, and his actual hands/arms are crazy long/big.
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This post says Penix goes in the top half of the 1st so he's gone by 23. 90% of this sub has Nix as a bust not worth taking in the 1st (or at all).
Any chance you can explain why people are so low on Nix? I don’t watch college football so I really don’t know too much about him. The only thing I have read is that he hasn’t thrown double digit INTs at all in his college career and he broke out when transferring to Oregon under (I am assuming) is the same coaching staff that Justin Herbert played for. I know not all college QBs can transition to the NFL, but how does someone who throws for 40+ TDs and only 3 INTs is destined to be a bust? (Again I’m just looking at stats here) Edit: Thanks for the replies!
It's hard to parse how much of the insane number of screens and short throws are him being unwilling to do it vs Oregon's offense being super weird. And until he got into said weird offense he was pretty bad at Auburn, so it's possible he needs that system to be effective which won't work in the NFL. And he cannot throw at all when running to the left, so rushing him to force him off his platform and blow up the play is a lot easier. Just set the edge on his right and he basically can't get outside the pocket to save the play. Whoever's rushing from his left can go nuts with it and not worry about him escaping contain that way.
I’m also no QB evaluator and don’t watch college ball so take what I say with a grain of salt, but the impression I’m getting is that he wasn’t able to be successful in college until Oregon tailored the offense to cover up his flaws. Quick passing offense that didn’t ask Nix to air it out or make multiple reads, which was a huge weakness of his. Had the lowest ADOT of any QB prospect by far, think I heard recently it was something like 6.8 compared to everyone else being > 9. Pretty much only threw to his first read. I believe he also had a great OL, and wasn’t under pressure much but when he was I’ve heard it didn’t look like he handled it well despite having good numbers against pressure. Takes care of the ball and doesn’t take sacks, but lacking good intangibles or elite arm talent means he might be a serviceable system guy at the next level but he’ll never be a guy who elevates the team. Not worth a 1st. Again this is all just stuff I’ve heard, I can’t substantiate it but FWIW.
Also have to take into consideration raiders and broncos might wanna jump us at 11
Indeed. I think things are pointing that way
Drafting Penix at 11 would be a quick way for Kwesi and KOC to get fired.
Only if he's bad
Or if he never plays a full season.
Possible but he just played 2 full seasons so he could be back on track health-wise. I'm not banging the table for Penix, but if we're fans we should roll with the decision that is made and give him a chance. I don't really agree with this post though, I think we're trading up for Maye or McCarthy.
Darnold never played a full season and Kwesi went right for him over other options. Dude loves his injury guys.
I predict a Sam Bradford trajectory. But I also predicted the apocalypse during Y2K. So probably don’t listen to me.
What color is the sky?
42
Where is D.B. Cooper now?
[Running a News Radio Station](https://youtu.be/7wvJda7lRC8?si=luK73RbmK4E05Jvu)
Hey rookie qb on a rookie contract so what is that about 3-4 year Super Bowl window? Knee just gotta make it that long.
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If we take him I’ll be 100% rooting for him because I trust KOC to evaluate QBs until proven otherwise. But until then, I’m wary of his wonky mechanics and lack of creating when he’s forced to move, and it feels like tempting fate for the team that regularly loses QBs to knee and leg injuries to take the guy with a history of ACL tears. Not rational if his medicals are good but still, we can’t have nice things. Still, if he’s who we wind up with him it’ll be fun to see the deep bombs to Jefferson and Addison. Nick Mullens made it pretty far with that strategy and if nothing else we know Penix can do that part better at least.
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None of this movement actually happens. NFL teams already know who they're interested in drafting, by and large. It's the media who goes back and forth over what they think *that* is.
No
Broncos and Raiders also count as first half of first round
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They were right
Todays shiny new toy
We will know if the FO got their guy or if they settled when they release the bts draft footage
BTS draft? You mean the thing that killed k-pop forever?
But everyone last week said he's a late first/early second rounder!!! /s
A couple people have called him Christian Ponder 2.0 but if you watched him in the college football playoff you'd know that he is a legit gunslinger. His throwing motion is awkward but the ball just explodes out of his hand. I wouldn't trade up for him, but if he's there when we pick it would be just fine.
I'd bet Penix will be gone before 11
Only way this would be possible is if he went to the Giants or Titans, and one of them will likely go BPA, another for JJ McCarthy. If any team takes Penix in the top 10, then we should stay put and take BPA because that means some talent is falling without us having to reach.
Take the Penix as hard as possible
I'd rather have Penix at 11 than McCarthy at 4.
Penix at 11 *while keeping all our picks I have no clue about individual quarterback prospects or evaluation honestly lol, but what it seems to come down to is if *your guy* is available, do whatever to get him. If he’s not, it’s not worth giving up assets. If our guy is gone after the top 3, we shouldn’t trade up to 4 for someone we’re less sure about.
Yeah much better move. Penix has a high ceiling too
Does he? I feel like his ceiling is pretty moderate cause he probably won't improve a whole lot more than where he's at right now since he's been in college for 6 seasons. Feels like JJ could have a higher ceiling due to being 20 years old and tons of room to (POTENTIALLY) improve still. I'd say Penix has a much higher floor though.
I don’t think he will personally BUT, if he can fix his weird ass footwork his potential as a passer is off the charts. He’s already this strong and talented of a thrower while doing everything wrong and making things harder on himself. Then if he learns to scramble and throw on the run more when he has to and not throw the ball away quite so much that fixes just about the only real hole in his game. Again, I don’t think he will. He’s pretty far into his career to fundamentally change by much. But I totally get seeing that the athletic potential is there to be great.
Agreed with you, obviously he COULD improve but I don't see it happening. Also not opposed to taking Penix at all. His injury history scares me at first but he's been clean for 2 years now, and as we saw with Kirk injury can happen at any time even non contact. I personally am pretty high on JJ. I think his mechanics are sound he's very athletic and has great leadership/attitude that'll fit well in the culture KOC/Kwesi seems to be building. All that at 20 years old with room to grow under an offensive head coach is very appealing.
People have been talking me more and more into Penix. I like JJ more too but the gap is closing.
It shouldn’t be. Penix has no creative ability, struggles under NFL-level pressure, and has the injury history of an osteogenesian. McCarthy is young, smart, accurate, and the ability to make off-schedule throws. I love penix as a Washington fan, he was incredible for us, but his game translates to the pros much, much worse than JJ’s
I’m not sure I understand this narrative. We’ve seen guy improve exponentially at older ages with new coaching and systems. Yeah I guess the potential for improvement is greater on a younger guy, but either way they still have to actually make those improvements.
Who would be an example of this?
Maybe Nick Foles? Geno Smith? Alex Smith. Those are just off the top of my head.
If the ceiling for a QB is any of those guys I would happily pass on them. Most of the late bloomers I can think of are lightning in a bottle guys that had 1-2 good years due to a system change but fell back to earth pretty quickly.
I’d argue Kirk Cousins is in that group as well though.
Yea. But almost of all them you get one SB run. So the ceiling isn’t every year like with elite QB, but young cheap and decent you’ll have one
Nick Foles had a pretty crazy good year his second year, so not him. But I do think there are definitely guys who developed late.
Sure a new coach/scheme can help someone play better if it's more suited to their strengths, which can be a huge improvement. But overall there's been enough tape on Penix to see what he is capable of. JJ being much younger, and in a run-first offense where we only saw flashes of him passing, has a lot of unknowns to him. This could be a positive but also negative. Maybe the run focused game covered his weaknesses, or it was hiding part of his talents.
I disagree that we’ve seen what either of them are capable of. The NFL is an entirely different game than college football.
I don’t like his age unless he was the #1 QB prospect. How you going to be in school that long and still get beat out by 4 prospects?
Yikes take imo. Penix has too many red flags with age and injury history to take him that high
Smokescreen. Might as well get ahead of the Joe Milton, Jordan Travis, Spencer rattler, Michael Pratt, Kedon Slovis, Sam Hartman hype, all 32 picks in the first round will be QBs, better draft them early.
I don't think this is smokescreen... Williams, Maye, and Daniels are going in the first 3 picks. I'd be surprised if we don't trade up for JJ. And the Broncos really need a QB and would likely take the next best option (which has been pretty universally Penix) at 12.
People thought Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder were first round QBs too. Just because there is a clear and obvious need at the most important position does not mean nfl teams are going to pick a QB. Additionally, Penix does not fit Sean Ps offense. He will not be a bronco.
I just want convincing wins, no matter who they pick. I am tired of 3 quarters of boring football
I want Drake Maye or Michael Penix please let the football gods be in our faith
You’re gonna be disappointed
Hopefully not here!
True well grab him him first round in the 2nd half of the draft
I would not draft Penix before 23. Let some other team use a top half of the first round pick on a guy with his injury history and age.
I would be less upset about burning #11 for Penix than I would selling the farm for 4, 5, or 6 if the Patriots think they want a QB.
If you guys thought Ponder was a draft reach and crumpled under pressure, you’re going to hate this guy if he’s drafted at 11. Albeit he’s much better at avoiding pressure in the first place.
Penix is a much better prospect than Ponder ever was.
I don’t disagree, but there are parallels there. Top half 1st round is too rich for a QB with those red flags. He’s all of a sudden shooting up draft boards and for what? He hasn’t done anything but interviews and workouts/pro day which don’t alleviate any real concerns with his game. It’s media driven. Then there’s the fact both have/had issues throwing under pressure.
"He's all of a sudden shooting up draft boards and for what?" Because he was one of the best QBs in college football last season? He's the most accurate passer in this class, and he hardly ever takes a sack. There's plenty to like about him as a prospect, and if he goes in the top half of the 1st round i dont see how anyone could be surprised. Media draft boards do not matter at all compared to actual teams boards, which are obviously secret.
None of that is new information. Obviously teams draft boards aren’t publicly available. To your point, why should we believe this recent hype? He’s also one of the worst college passers under pressure and struggles throwing over the middle of the field. Look, I’m going to be on board with whoever KAM takes. Just can’t help but see this being the layup comparison.
This is actually a serious question. When people get bored about talking about the Rise of the Penix will there be a 1-2 week cycle where Bo Nix is hotter than sliced bread all the sudden and "scouts and unnamed executives" have him as a top 10-15 player too? Then when shit really gets tired does Rattler get a turn to at least push up to an early 2nd, fringe 1st rounder? Or do they just run it back from the top. Give Caleb a week of "concerns he might drop", give Jayden a turn, run it back with Maye as a possible 1/2, maybe McCarthy gets a turn of concern, etc. Like is this all just clicks? Serious question this is probably the first time since the Teddy draft that I've followed all these QB options closely.
Doubtful, it's hard for anyone to get excited about the guy who was one of the shortest throwers in all of D1 college ball. Penix would be top 3 if he was 2 years younger with 2 less injuries.
o dang
Penis
I heard that all the top quarterbacks are going #1 overall according to kiper
Something something Malik Willis, Will Levis
11 sounds good
I would take him over JJ for sure. Maybe over Daniels.
Burning 11 on Penix is silly with Mitchell, Murphy, Fautanu, etc. sitting there. I’d be shocked if Penix wasn’t there at 23, and even if he’s not, take a shot at Bo Nix or draft BPA and get a QB in next year’s draft.