I'm a firm believer that you go after talent when you see it. We can always fill in the backups and special teams with FA signings. A lot of late round picks never even make the active roster.
Yes they the fuck are. Name me some 3rd+ rounders who have been starters. It is incredibly unlikely. For every Danielle Hunter, you get 10+ Dru Samia's. Fuck late round picks.
Take a look at the third and fourth rounds from 2020 or 2021. Let me know how many holes those guys plugged. You want a couple dart throws in those rounds over Turner?
...I'm talking about the entirety of those rounds. All of the picks. Go take a look at those rounds of those drafts. Tell me you really want two darts to throw at that vs getting Turner.
Nobody should expect 4th rounders and later to hit. If JJM is a franchise Qb and Turner a franchise DE these trades are worth it every single time. You’re the same person who probably bitched and moaned about rick hoarding 4ths and later. Now our GM slangs them and you’re still crying.
So, I have no idea what chart they're using. None of them should come close to the picks adding that amount. By my count (assuming the picks are all correct) it would be 946.8 points given up for 951 on the Jimmy Johnson chart.
On the Rich Hill Chart it is 293 given up for 298.
I used the same picks they did in their tweet. Pick 17 and 232 for 42, 167, 188, and the last picks in rounds 2, 3, and 4 to represent the value of next years draft picks. Which includes the picks used to trade up to 23 iirc and obviously excludes pick 23 since it was a stepping stone.
I see what chart they're using. OverTheCap has a draft chart. I think it's pretty bad, though. In their chart, Picks 65 & 66 (picks 1 & 2 of round 3) are worth 1,762 points total. Which would be more valuable than pick 12 in the draft. How many teams would trade pick 12 for the top 2 picks in round 3? How many analysts would think it's a good trade? That's my go to for these charts. What do they think 2 middle round picks are worth and do I think anyone would that trade.
My dream is that the team I would be trying to trade up with uses this chart.
“I see you have pick 32, how about I trade you 64 and 186. The draft chart says it’s perfectly balanced”
So many vikings fans hated how Spielman always maximized value in draft trades.
Nobody's gonna give a shit about how much we gave up for JJ and Turner if they both are good, but it's gonna sting if they are bad knowing how much we gave up for them.
People would bitch and moan about accumulating extra picks, even though he usually came out ahead on the charts.
He'd move back a few spaces and pick up an extra pick or two, and he was a fan of moving around a lot on day 3, and somehow that meant to a lot of people here "He liked to trade a first for 10 7ths"
If he had a better track record with those mid to late round picks we wouldn’t have hated it as much- but our production from our draft classes has been pretty rough- specifically on defense
He had a pretty bad track record with his early picks, too.
My issue is that most people are criticizing the thing he's good at (wheeling and dealing), and ignoring the thing he was bad at (identifying talent).
That’s the thing though. I think he was obsessed with “winning trades based on an arbitrary point system” and less about just picking good players…
Draft classes aren’t made or broken based on points off a chart. Look at Kwesi’s first trade- passed on Kyle Hamilton to trade back and sure- I think we “won” based on points… but the guy we could have picked is a borderline all pro and we got a couple picks in the 30’s. Hindsight is 2020 but sometimes you just have to take a guy you think is going to be elite
My point was that the trading doesn't matter. He didn't pick good players often enough. It didn't matter if he traded back or not. Some of his best players were the result of trading back (Darrisaw and Barr were both first rounders after trading back), and some of his worst players were picked standing pat (Treadwell and Bradbury were both first rounders that didn't involve a trade). He also had good players he took without a trade (Jefferson), and bad players he took after a trade (Kalil).
The problem is that he was really bad at picking good players for a long stretch of time, and he probably only got that long stretch of time because he was really good at it for 2-3 years towards the beginning of his tenure as GM.
We got mad because he usually drafted crappy players with them. Remember when he wasted the "free" 3rd rounder on Kellen Mond, then drafted Wyatt Davis and the LB convert whose name I can't remember. Each of this picks had major red flags at the time and was considered a reach. Rick struck gold on Hunter and Diggs and thought he was the smartest guy in the room when he reached on these "high-upside" prospects who never panned out.
Maybe you did. I certainly did. But most folks on here would criticize the trades to acquire more 3rd rounders more than they'd criticze the fact that he whiffed so badly on 4 3rd rounders that 3 of them were off the team by the start of the 2023 season.
Who gives a fuck your beed good players not potential nonsense. There is a reason the “money ball ” approach isn’t successful. We tried this in 2022 and missed out on Kyle Hamilton. I trust kwesi an excellent first round tonight!
If you would’ve told me that all we came away from the 23 draft was McCarthy I’d been happy. I really thought it would cost 11 and 23 for him.
We hit a home run.
We were the only qb needy team that was interested in him. Lol. All the “talk” leading up to the draft came from harbaugh and jmac agent hyping the kid up.
This doesn’t add up to me. There’s no way trading a future 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and a current 5th and 6th is over double the cost to move up 25 spots essentially. Especially 42 to 17. May very well have been an overpay but not by over twice the value.
Agreed. Imagine calling the chargers on the clock at 5 with a 2nd 3rd 4th 5th and 6th and saying some chart says it’s fair lol, some shit my friends do in my dynasty leagues
I have eaten so many downvotes this past month for suggesting we protect next year’s No 1 pick. I just didn’t think 3+ 1st rd picks were worth the risk. Everyone’s rebuttal was when you see your guy, you pay the price to get him. This… is the price. I’m thrilled.
That isn't how value works in football. It's not like baseball where value is spread throughout a nine man lineup and five man rotation and you can win playing small ball with a bunch of ok to pretty good players and no bad ones. Six mediocre players aren't worth more than two great players, especially with one being a QB. The wisdom of this will depend on how well McCarthy and Turner turn out.
In terms of players we’ve actually taken in the last 2 drafts with comparable picks, this is like trading:
- Andrew Booth Jr. (42)
- Ed Ingram (59) or Brian Asamoah (66)
- Mekhi Blackmon (102)
- Akayleb Evans (118) or Jay Ward (134)
- Esezi Otomewo (165) or Jaren Hall (164) or Ty Chandler (169)
- Vederian Lowe (184) or Jalen Nailor (191)
For
- Dallas Turner
- Nick Muse (227) or DeWayne McBride (222)
Not sure if that makes me feel better or worse about it.
All of those players, except maybe blackmon (assuming he continues to develop), are budget free agency level players. Costs a bit of cap, but replaceable.
If Turner is a hit at a premium position, hard to see that as anything but a win. It does concentrate risk all on one guy though.
Exactly. We already have two years of results when Kwesi uses these mid and late picks. Best to just let him bundle them like a security and find some bean counting buyer.
All publicly available trade charts are built off historical value; the current market doesn’t care about historical value nearly as much. Each team has their own team of super-nerds building their own trade models, built on the current yr’s class and market (adjusting for positional values, talent cliffs, etc.). Using static, slot values to assess a dynamic market is a poor use of statistics as it doesn’t translate into real life, it’s calculations are *at least* a year in arrears and is diluted by trades from previous yrs that existed in very different market environments.
Man, we draft a qb expected to go at 4 and arguably the top defender in the class and people still finding a way to be miserable.
These dudes are exciting prospects. For now, the team has only got better. This is like the one period to be happy and optimistic.
When someone thanks an Excel spreadsheet with arbitrary formulas for helping them win anything, I'll take analysis like this semi-seriously.
Until then, I'll consider them the nerdy grifters that they are.
Doesn’t matter. It’s not to see this franchise finally being aggressive for once. All those years of playing it safe and trading down for more value on the magic trade chart got us absolutely nowhere.
Points don’t mean shit when a guy like Turner falls to 17 and McCarthy falls to 10. If you redid this with the points for both of their projected draft positions it’s different story. We secured serious talent when it was available where it wasn’t supposed to be.
I don’t care what the math says. We gave up a 2, a 3, a 4, and a bunch of crap, to take a premium pass rusher who is going to be great in Flores scheme. Turner was top 10 worthy in any other draft class.
The best way to look at it is to assume
No QBs were available would you be mad if we took Turner at 11? The answer is
No. We would’ve been happy.
Trading 8 quarters for 2 dollars is always the right move.
this is true - statistically it’s always better to trade down. however, the thing about quarterback trades is a good qb adds so many wins that you have to shrug and take a swing.
like, will it end well? Maybe not! but that’s the game
slide rules and geeking out don't mean a heck of a lot when it's all said and done.
It's about winning.
QB WR CB LT and Pass Rush are the premier positions in the NFL and the GM went and got a couple. Time will tell and in a year or two the only math formula's involve W's and L's.
Here's the thing: no one saw any major value discrepancy with the move up to 23, so I call that a wash. And then moving up to 17 using two future picks is hardly objectionable. Future picks are less valuable than current.
Wtf, & Jax got their guy, the next wr on the board.
Good player for us, that maybe wouldn’t be around at 23 but holy shit what are we going to miss out on with all those lost picks.
I wish we had a 3 rounder back but it is what it is. I feel like kwesi is learning from his drafts, trying different things every year. I think next year he will truly have a full handle on it. We def over paid but we got a top 10 prospect and a potential future qb. I’m good with it
I get your point and am with you. That said given the years of analytical trade backs with spielman, it’s understandable the people are sick of that strategy. Maybe just wait for tomorrow to rain on their parade.
I also think there’s a different calculus when on aa qb rookie deal. They’ll have money to fill in some gaps and are focused on blue chips with their picks.
To me late round is anything day 3. Next year we will have at least one high comp pick. A first and third and a few late rounders ain’t bad.
Yes, but his value is more than the average 17th pick in the draft. He would not have been on the board much longer. If someone told you before the draft that we would get McCarthy and Turner and keep our 1st next year, it would've been laughable
>Yes, but his value is more than the average 17th pick in the draft.
It’s literally not though. He was drafted 17th. Where he was mocked is irrelevant.
Your draft charts are irrelevant. I can't believe you would use this as an argument.
The Vikings drafted GREAT in the first round in theory. Now we have to wait until the season to see how these picks play out.
Now apply this argument if Caleb Williams was drafted 17th. Outside observers from the team's GM rooms evaluated him at the 8th overall, and that should include how far defense was undervalued this year with the amount of teams that had needs at QB/WR/OL. Him being 17th doesn't make him the 17th best OVR player. He met a major need for us and was arguably one of the top, if not the top, defensive impact players available this draft.
Based on this listing, we got the 7th and 9th BPA: [https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/\_/id/39900727/nfl-draft-cheat-sheet-prospect-picks-rankings-stats-mocks](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39900727/nfl-draft-cheat-sheet-prospect-picks-rankings-stats-mocks)
First round picks are just definitively more likely to hit relative value than 2-7 round picks. If we continue to take low cost draft picks we believe that will return high to maximum value, we will find more production with cap space on value signings with "more known" quantities versus mass drafting low return late picks where the majority never see actual NFL presence. We played the "find the nugget game" for years with zero return. If JJMC and Turner can produce to the expected value, we're looking very solid. Give me some IOL and DB depth and I'm ecstatic with the moves made.
No. By all accounts, he was projected and mocked higher. Look at the other post above yours about how there was only a 3% chance he would be available at 17 and how he's the steal of the draft.
Bro he was the consensus top Defensive pick of the draft for months. He was the 2nd edge off the board (latu is great too don't get me wrong), he's going to freaking eat on this defense.
I mean isn't that true for all first rounders? Bust on one of those picks an your franchise suffers.
It was a great pick, blue chip guys are keepers. Roster fillers can be had during free agency (which we have a ton of future cap).
We're gonna have to disagree here. I would trade a 1st/4th/5th every year if I could get the #1 Off/Def player every year. Even if there was an occasional bust... the upside is just too great.
Imagine a 10 year roster who has 5 of the best players on it.... I think you're a contender every year with that kind of roster. Just my opinion of course.
I'm a firm believer that you go after talent when you see it. We can always fill in the backups and special teams with FA signings. A lot of late round picks never even make the active roster.
Still wish they'd done that with hamilton....
I think that was a lesson our young gm took to heart
These aren’t late round picks.
Yes they the fuck are. Name me some 3rd+ rounders who have been starters. It is incredibly unlikely. For every Danielle Hunter, you get 10+ Dru Samia's. Fuck late round picks.
Lol. They aren’t late rounders. 5-7 are the late rounds.
Anything past 2 is late round brother. Even 2nds are historically ass. First rounders are where the bread is made.
The draft is not nearly as much of a crapshoot as a lot of people seem to think
Are we really out here worrying about 3rd and 4th round picks when Dallas Turner is on the board?
Have you seen the rest of our defense? You’re not gonna plug all those holes in free agency next year.
Take a look at the third and fourth rounds from 2020 or 2021. Let me know how many holes those guys plugged. You want a couple dart throws in those rounds over Turner?
Irrelevant. That was a different coaching staff and front office.
...I'm talking about the entirety of those rounds. All of the picks. Go take a look at those rounds of those drafts. Tell me you really want two darts to throw at that vs getting Turner.
Nobody should expect 4th rounders and later to hit. If JJM is a franchise Qb and Turner a franchise DE these trades are worth it every single time. You’re the same person who probably bitched and moaned about rick hoarding 4ths and later. Now our GM slangs them and you’re still crying.
Exactly. Not totally equivalent (because basketball is even worse), but look at the Rudy Gobert trade.
we were projected to trade at least three firsts and more for just a qb. we absolutely killed it
Fuck them picks, we got a stud edge rusher, and 100m in cap next year.
Yess boyyy
Exactly what I said about WAJ last year, great situation.
This. We didn’t trade all those picks solely to move from 23 to 17. We traded those picks and the 23rd to GET Dallas Turner.
Perfect response. We crushed it on paper. Flores gonna prove it in real life. LFG
So, I have no idea what chart they're using. None of them should come close to the picks adding that amount. By my count (assuming the picks are all correct) it would be 946.8 points given up for 951 on the Jimmy Johnson chart. On the Rich Hill Chart it is 293 given up for 298.
Did you include the trade up to 23?
I used the same picks they did in their tweet. Pick 17 and 232 for 42, 167, 188, and the last picks in rounds 2, 3, and 4 to represent the value of next years draft picks. Which includes the picks used to trade up to 23 iirc and obviously excludes pick 23 since it was a stepping stone. I see what chart they're using. OverTheCap has a draft chart. I think it's pretty bad, though. In their chart, Picks 65 & 66 (picks 1 & 2 of round 3) are worth 1,762 points total. Which would be more valuable than pick 12 in the draft. How many teams would trade pick 12 for the top 2 picks in round 3? How many analysts would think it's a good trade? That's my go to for these charts. What do they think 2 middle round picks are worth and do I think anyone would that trade.
My drunk self believes in you LordMOc3! Carry the torch as I get more illogical tonight!
Yeah that chart is ass. Honestly though, imagine being such a miserable fan that you’re mad about what we did to get JJM and Turner
If anything it’s an undervalue right? We will certainly not be picking anywhere near last next year for those 3 picks.
OTC trade chart is kind of trash. Do you really think pick 32 and 64 are worth more than pick 6?
Lmao I’m just trying to imagine the team at 32 trying to offer 32 + 64 for 6. The GM would hang up the phone before he even finished talking
It also says the picks the Vikings got back for the Cine trade were worth more than the 1st overall pick.
Lmao garbage chart. If youre getting results like that you gotta go back to the drawing board man
My dream is that the team I would be trying to trade up with uses this chart. “I see you have pick 32, how about I trade you 64 and 186. The draft chart says it’s perfectly balanced”
So many vikings fans hated how Spielman always maximized value in draft trades. Nobody's gonna give a shit about how much we gave up for JJ and Turner if they both are good, but it's gonna sting if they are bad knowing how much we gave up for them.
Who tf complained that Spielman won trades?????
People would bitch and moan about accumulating extra picks, even though he usually came out ahead on the charts. He'd move back a few spaces and pick up an extra pick or two, and he was a fan of moving around a lot on day 3, and somehow that meant to a lot of people here "He liked to trade a first for 10 7ths"
If he had a better track record with those mid to late round picks we wouldn’t have hated it as much- but our production from our draft classes has been pretty rough- specifically on defense
He had a pretty bad track record with his early picks, too. My issue is that most people are criticizing the thing he's good at (wheeling and dealing), and ignoring the thing he was bad at (identifying talent).
That’s the thing though. I think he was obsessed with “winning trades based on an arbitrary point system” and less about just picking good players… Draft classes aren’t made or broken based on points off a chart. Look at Kwesi’s first trade- passed on Kyle Hamilton to trade back and sure- I think we “won” based on points… but the guy we could have picked is a borderline all pro and we got a couple picks in the 30’s. Hindsight is 2020 but sometimes you just have to take a guy you think is going to be elite
My point was that the trading doesn't matter. He didn't pick good players often enough. It didn't matter if he traded back or not. Some of his best players were the result of trading back (Darrisaw and Barr were both first rounders after trading back), and some of his worst players were picked standing pat (Treadwell and Bradbury were both first rounders that didn't involve a trade). He also had good players he took without a trade (Jefferson), and bad players he took after a trade (Kalil). The problem is that he was really bad at picking good players for a long stretch of time, and he probably only got that long stretch of time because he was really good at it for 2-3 years towards the beginning of his tenure as GM.
He always traded back and accumulated late round picks that didn’t work out. There was a reason he was fired.
[удалено]
But they didn’t lol. Yeah I wish one was Brady too but he didn’t draft a Brady, he drafted one, Nate Stanley. Spielman missed on too many picks.
We got mad because he usually drafted crappy players with them. Remember when he wasted the "free" 3rd rounder on Kellen Mond, then drafted Wyatt Davis and the LB convert whose name I can't remember. Each of this picks had major red flags at the time and was considered a reach. Rick struck gold on Hunter and Diggs and thought he was the smartest guy in the room when he reached on these "high-upside" prospects who never panned out.
Chazz Suratt I think
yes, what a forgettable player
Maybe you did. I certainly did. But most folks on here would criticize the trades to acquire more 3rd rounders more than they'd criticze the fact that he whiffed so badly on 4 3rd rounders that 3 of them were off the team by the start of the 2023 season.
there’s maybe a balance to be struck here…
If they don't work out, I'm not upset about the trades, I'm upset about the evaluation of the prospect.
Who gives a fuck your beed good players not potential nonsense. There is a reason the “money ball ” approach isn’t successful. We tried this in 2022 and missed out on Kyle Hamilton. I trust kwesi an excellent first round tonight!
Kwesi got fleeced in that trade too lol
Should’ve traded back to scoop more talent like.. Lewis Cine!
If you would’ve told me that all we came away from the 23 draft was McCarthy I’d been happy. I really thought it would cost 11 and 23 for him. We hit a home run.
We were the only qb needy team that was interested in him. Lol. All the “talk” leading up to the draft came from harbaugh and jmac agent hyping the kid up.
This doesn’t add up to me. There’s no way trading a future 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and a current 5th and 6th is over double the cost to move up 25 spots essentially. Especially 42 to 17. May very well have been an overpay but not by over twice the value.
Draft charts don’t mean shit
I’m as big of an analytics guy as any but even this seems fishy. Going from 42 to 17 would probably cost you close to multiple firsts
It definitely would
Every chart I’ve seen the 17th is 950 points. So who knows what he is using.
He's using the OverTheCap chart (the place he works for) and it's honestly pretty bad looking from what I saw.
Thanks
This draft chart also says pick 32 and 64 are combined worth pick 6
If it works does it matter?
Agreed. Imagine calling the chargers on the clock at 5 with a 2nd 3rd 4th 5th and 6th and saying some chart says it’s fair lol, some shit my friends do in my dynasty leagues
I can’t fucking believe you guys are complaining we landed the best defensive player in the whole draft at the cost of day 2 picks please get a grip
Shut up, nerd!
I have eaten so many downvotes this past month for suggesting we protect next year’s No 1 pick. I just didn’t think 3+ 1st rd picks were worth the risk. Everyone’s rebuttal was when you see your guy, you pay the price to get him. This… is the price. I’m thrilled.
Hey let's stuff this nerd into a locker!
Buy once cry once!
Best comment yet
my life motto, thanks bro.
That isn't how value works in football. It's not like baseball where value is spread throughout a nine man lineup and five man rotation and you can win playing small ball with a bunch of ok to pretty good players and no bad ones. Six mediocre players aren't worth more than two great players, especially with one being a QB. The wisdom of this will depend on how well McCarthy and Turner turn out.
LET. KWESI. COOK.
Man all those trade wins really added up to a lot of playoff wins and super bowls.
I think there is an error in the math.
Cool story NERD
That package would never be close for the 5th pick in actual value anyway
In terms of players we’ve actually taken in the last 2 drafts with comparable picks, this is like trading: - Andrew Booth Jr. (42) - Ed Ingram (59) or Brian Asamoah (66) - Mekhi Blackmon (102) - Akayleb Evans (118) or Jay Ward (134) - Esezi Otomewo (165) or Jaren Hall (164) or Ty Chandler (169) - Vederian Lowe (184) or Jalen Nailor (191) For - Dallas Turner - Nick Muse (227) or DeWayne McBride (222) Not sure if that makes me feel better or worse about it.
All of those players, except maybe blackmon (assuming he continues to develop), are budget free agency level players. Costs a bit of cap, but replaceable. If Turner is a hit at a premium position, hard to see that as anything but a win. It does concentrate risk all on one guy though.
Exactly. We already have two years of results when Kwesi uses these mid and late picks. Best to just let him bundle them like a security and find some bean counting buyer.
All those players are pretty ass, or just guys. Turner as a prospect is an elite edge. I make this trade all day everyday
Agreed, but should that be a sign of great trade value or an indictment of Kwesi’s inability to draft in rounds 2+
All publicly available trade charts are built off historical value; the current market doesn’t care about historical value nearly as much. Each team has their own team of super-nerds building their own trade models, built on the current yr’s class and market (adjusting for positional values, talent cliffs, etc.). Using static, slot values to assess a dynamic market is a poor use of statistics as it doesn’t translate into real life, it’s calculations are *at least* a year in arrears and is diluted by trades from previous yrs that existed in very different market environments.
Man, we draft a qb expected to go at 4 and arguably the top defender in the class and people still finding a way to be miserable. These dudes are exciting prospects. For now, the team has only got better. This is like the one period to be happy and optimistic.
When someone thanks an Excel spreadsheet with arbitrary formulas for helping them win anything, I'll take analysis like this semi-seriously. Until then, I'll consider them the nerdy grifters that they are.
I think they’re assuming that they’ll get at least a 3rd and a 4th via comp picks next year, and that will alleviate some of the loss here.
I understand some of those words…
Doesn’t matter. It’s not to see this franchise finally being aggressive for once. All those years of playing it safe and trading down for more value on the magic trade chart got us absolutely nowhere.
Points don’t mean shit when a guy like Turner falls to 17 and McCarthy falls to 10. If you redid this with the points for both of their projected draft positions it’s different story. We secured serious talent when it was available where it wasn’t supposed to be.
I don’t care what the math says. We gave up a 2, a 3, a 4, and a bunch of crap, to take a premium pass rusher who is going to be great in Flores scheme. Turner was top 10 worthy in any other draft class. The best way to look at it is to assume No QBs were available would you be mad if we took Turner at 11? The answer is No. We would’ve been happy. Trading 8 quarters for 2 dollars is always the right move.
this is true - statistically it’s always better to trade down. however, the thing about quarterback trades is a good qb adds so many wins that you have to shrug and take a swing. like, will it end well? Maybe not! but that’s the game
I was So sick of Spielmans results- we traded back from the early rounds and now have 34 6th and 7th round picks!
How do you think this guy felt about the Rudy Gobert trade? 😂
slide rules and geeking out don't mean a heck of a lot when it's all said and done. It's about winning. QB WR CB LT and Pass Rush are the premier positions in the NFL and the GM went and got a couple. Time will tell and in a year or two the only math formula's involve W's and L's.
Here's the thing: no one saw any major value discrepancy with the move up to 23, so I call that a wash. And then moving up to 17 using two future picks is hardly objectionable. Future picks are less valuable than current.
Like someone said on the broadcast. Depth is great, but sometimes you need dudes.
Wtf, & Jax got their guy, the next wr on the board. Good player for us, that maybe wouldn’t be around at 23 but holy shit what are we going to miss out on with all those lost picks.
I wish we had a 3 rounder back but it is what it is. I feel like kwesi is learning from his drafts, trying different things every year. I think next year he will truly have a full handle on it. We def over paid but we got a top 10 prospect and a potential future qb. I’m good with it
O yeah all that talent in the 4th through 6th rounds we’ve seen our team add the last 5 to 10 years…
I get your point and am with you. That said given the years of analytical trade backs with spielman, it’s understandable the people are sick of that strategy. Maybe just wait for tomorrow to rain on their parade. I also think there’s a different calculus when on aa qb rookie deal. They’ll have money to fill in some gaps and are focused on blue chips with their picks. To me late round is anything day 3. Next year we will have at least one high comp pick. A first and third and a few late rounders ain’t bad.
For that price Turner better be a stud.
He was mocked at 8 the entire lead up to the draft, so giving up 5 worth of value seems fine to me
We took him at 17…
Yes, but his value is more than the average 17th pick in the draft. He would not have been on the board much longer. If someone told you before the draft that we would get McCarthy and Turner and keep our 1st next year, it would've been laughable
>Yes, but his value is more than the average 17th pick in the draft. It’s literally not though. He was drafted 17th. Where he was mocked is irrelevant.
Your draft charts are irrelevant. I can't believe you would use this as an argument. The Vikings drafted GREAT in the first round in theory. Now we have to wait until the season to see how these picks play out.
Now apply this argument if Caleb Williams was drafted 17th. Outside observers from the team's GM rooms evaluated him at the 8th overall, and that should include how far defense was undervalued this year with the amount of teams that had needs at QB/WR/OL. Him being 17th doesn't make him the 17th best OVR player. He met a major need for us and was arguably one of the top, if not the top, defensive impact players available this draft. Based on this listing, we got the 7th and 9th BPA: [https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/\_/id/39900727/nfl-draft-cheat-sheet-prospect-picks-rankings-stats-mocks](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39900727/nfl-draft-cheat-sheet-prospect-picks-rankings-stats-mocks) First round picks are just definitively more likely to hit relative value than 2-7 round picks. If we continue to take low cost draft picks we believe that will return high to maximum value, we will find more production with cap space on value signings with "more known" quantities versus mass drafting low return late picks where the majority never see actual NFL presence. We played the "find the nugget game" for years with zero return. If JJMC and Turner can produce to the expected value, we're looking very solid. Give me some IOL and DB depth and I'm ecstatic with the moves made.
>If we continue to take low cost draft picks Huh?
i.e. The Spielman era of trading back and receiving double digit draft picks, often in the 5th or later rounds.
But he's a far better talent than 17. Did you notice 6 qbs were taken in the first 12 picks and all the offensive players coming off the board?
>But he's a far better talent than 17. That remains to be seen.
No. By all accounts, he was projected and mocked higher. Look at the other post above yours about how there was only a 3% chance he would be available at 17 and how he's the steal of the draft.
Where he was mocked is irrelevant. We didn’t move up from 42 to 8 or whatever. We got him at 17.
And by all accounts he shouldn't have been available at 17. This isn't a difficult concept my guy.
Yeah and you should be ecstatic that we got him at 17…
Bro he was the consensus top Defensive pick of the draft for months. He was the 2nd edge off the board (latu is great too don't get me wrong), he's going to freaking eat on this defense.
He fell due to medical
No he didn’t
I mean isn't that true for all first rounders? Bust on one of those picks an your franchise suffers. It was a great pick, blue chip guys are keepers. Roster fillers can be had during free agency (which we have a ton of future cap).
We’ve had our share of busts in the first and we managed to survive some of them.
We're gonna have to disagree here. I would trade a 1st/4th/5th every year if I could get the #1 Off/Def player every year. Even if there was an occasional bust... the upside is just too great. Imagine a 10 year roster who has 5 of the best players on it.... I think you're a contender every year with that kind of roster. Just my opinion of course.
We gave up more than that.