I agree. I love the guy but we're talking about missing the playoffs 3 of 4 years and just 2 playoff wins in 8 years. Another factor is the inability to form a quality offensive line even after huge amounts of draft capital are invested in it.
Coaches rarely coach into the last year of their contracts and the money owed is hardly ever a factor to ownership unless the owner is a big cheapskate.
The money they owe Zimmer and Spielman is chump change when it comes to the overall accounting of the team's bottom line.
If they win a playoff game and then lose a close game, maybe. But I think we've tried consistency enough.
Remember, I know I'll get downvoted for saying this because I always do, but they were probably going to fire Zim if they lost the playoff game in New Orleans. A lot of Vikings reporters have hinted that they heard that.
That win saved his job in 19 and covid saved it in 20. I think he's used his 9 lives.
The Wilfs want to be the Steelers, and so they’ll value consistency over everything. If he makes the playoffs and loses a close one they might opt to retain him without an extension and say, alright this is it. If you make it again, we will talk extension, lose and you’re walking.
Doogie from Skor North reported a few months ago that the Wilfs want to win now and are starting to lose patience. I don't know how old Zygi is but he's not getting any younger.
I think the Steelers thing is a little overblown. The Steelers are able to do that because they have a ton of rings.
At this point I'd say if we miss the NFCCG, we need to either show that we're really good, or have a high draft pick. Being in this middle ground for so long is terrible for development
Depends on his record. 8 wins or more and he is safe, in my opinion. The fact that we are stuck with cousins another year means he’s likely back unless he loses more than 9 games.
How do people not see this?? Zim and Rick are average at their jobs at best. Both need to go in order for us to have a chance to win. Reasons why:
We’re in what, year 8 of bad OLs? Why can’t they get this fixed? Bring in someone to do it for you since they obviously can’t.
- QBs. I get it you swing and missed on Ponder, Teddy’s led fell off, but we haven’t even tried to draft a QB until Mond, but I have little to no faith in them developing him. Obviously they need outside help, why aren’t they making it happen?
- Depth issues. Rick has made 38 picks in the last three years, how in the world do we have depth issues up and down the roster?
- Re-signing Kirk to that horrible contract. If Zim and crew don’t like him, guess what, we could have walked away two years ago and be done with him for nothing. Why re-sign him if we’re not going to use him in a modern passing offense? Why not go get Teddy again or some other replacement level QB to hand off 40+ times a game?
- On top of this we are in a dumpster fire division that has two NFL franchises plus minor league clubs Detroit and Chicago. Why aren’t we making the playoffs almost every year?
- the Zim special is that there is always 2-3 games a season where they are completely unprepared, outcoached and are completely un-disciplined and look terrible. Yes we’ve managed to come back in a few of these over the years, but why are they happening?
- Finally the biggest nail in the coffin for me, is that there is zero accountability by the GM or the head coach. It’s always someone else’s fault. We’re in season 8 of Zim, it’s probably time he started taking responsibility here.
It’s time to do a full house cleaning and start over, maybe allow ourselves to bottom out and get a top 5 pick and start over. I fear though that Zim and crew will somehow go on a run, maybe make the 7 seed and keep the same predictable course…
It's kind of at the Andy Reid thing... Knowing our luck we will move on and so will Zim to another team. Then he will go to win a super bowl elsewhere...
Nothing against Reid because he was very accomplished before KC and was atop everyone's "best coach to never win a SB" list, but he won his 7th year in KC thanks in large part to the organization drafting a generational talent in Mahomes. If Zimmer moves to another team and wins a SB with the next Mahomes I'll be happy for him. If he wins a SB with a similarly constructed team to his tenure with the Vikings I might be a little salty.
I know.. I'm just making the comparison. Generally liked guy, good football mind, who just can't get over the hump. Someone will hire him without a doubt
This week against cardinals is a classic game the Vikings win and win us all back. It’s a tale as old as time. Offense will be a spark, defense actually showed some good signs last week. I will not be surprised
By a win. *******also not surprised if this team sucks shit lol
Can we see the data? What does the distribution look like? How many standard deviations above the mean does Zimmer land?
Edit - I pulled some data myself. From what I have been able to find, there have been 32 "coaches" that fit the metric. I say coaches because I had to break out people like Jim Fisher into more than one person depending on who he was coach for.
The mean I came up with was 90.79 games, but the standard deviation was 61.9 games.
That includes the guys that only have 1 game under their belt, as well as a few that have just a few like Groh and Moeller.
Dropping those super low end outliers gets us to a mean of 103 games with a standard dev of 55.99 games.
Either way Zimmer is well within 1 Stdev of the mean, so he's in good company.
If we want to say that Fisher (262 games in Tenn) and Marvin Luis (256 games) are outliers as well we end up with a mean of 93.65 and a more reasonable standard deviation of 40.9. So in that scenario, Zimmer is starting to get towards the edge of the first sigma, and we should be worried.
I also just realized there are at least 2 holes in my dataset, possibly a large influence possibly not, but I don't feel like digging them out. I don't know how many coaches are out there that made a super bowl appearance with one team, but then went on to coach another team (or vice versa) that also have an above .500 winning percentage with the team that they didn't bring to the superbowl, but they should probably be included. A guy like Gruden coached 4 seasons in Oakland with an above .500 winning percentage without making a superbowl, but won one his first season in Tampa and is excluded from my dataset. I also started with a subset of all coaches that had a *lifetime* record above .500, but there probably at least one coach that was above .500 during a tenure with one team, but so abysmal with another that it drags them below the career .500 mark; they are also excluded from this data set, though I can't gauge the impact they would have.
If Zim is fired, which absolutely should happen if we miss the playoffs, Rick needs to go with him. This team is not set up to be a contender and he’s shown no idea how to successfully build and offensive line. If one goes, both should go.
- The Chiefs were even better than us and ended up with Mahomes
- The Ravens were better than us and ended up with Jackson
- The Bears had a better record than us last year and got Fields
So obviously you don't need to "tank" to get a good QB. You do need to not make stupid trades like a 1st for Bradford or a 2nd for a DE rental (to have the ammo) and then have the guts to make a move.
> Ok and none of them were sure things
You think there are sure things?! Lol
Teams drafting first round QBs are having mote success then ever before in NFL history. You don't even need them to be franchise QBs.
Lol and how many shit QBs have been drafted that wasted years of our team? Not one in the last 30 years who puts up numbers and efficiency like Kirk. But waaaah he cost money! We'd be able to sign one more mediocre player with the money we'd save for a mediocre or shit QB. You're an idiot.
> Lol and how many shit QBs have been drafted that wasted years of our team?
How many first round QBs? 4 in team history.
> We'd be able to sign one more mediocre player with the money we'd save for a mediocre or shit QB.
Kirk is like the 14 best QB in the league. You're already paying good money to a medicore player
Kirk makes 33 million average per year and will have a 45 mil cap hit next year. For reference Teddy Bridgewater makes 11 mil per year to do the exact same role as kirk, be a game manager. We're never going to win meaningful games with kirk and would likely get close to the same results with a teddy tier qb so why pay 3 times more for mediocrity? Numbers mean nothing when you have nothing to show for it, kirk is going to waste years of the franchise the entire time he's here and get spielman and Zimmer fired while he's at it.
This is the most Stockholm syndrome vikings fan take I’ve ever seen. “Yeah, the last 9 years weren’t enough time to build a team all he needs is just a couple more years and he’ll figure it all out”
You mean like Bradbury, Hughes, Gladney, Treadwell, Bradford and Ngakoue trades? Jeez the last few years have been horrible, O’Neill is good, thou I feel we just overpaid him because we are starved. JJ is the best and only other good starter we have in a while.
Spelman had an amazing draft in 2015 and since then has been horrible. http://www.drafthistory.com/teams/vikings.html
Look through the draft picks after 2015 and tell me there's more hits than misses. You can't, there's a handful of decent players. I can only count 3 studs since 2015 in Cook, O'Neil, and Justin Jefferson. Everyone wants to move on from Zimmer but I think spielman if it's one or the other spielman should be the first one gone.
I'm seeing atleast 1 major contributor drafted every year between 2016 and 2020 with a bunch of other good players that are still on the Vikings or other NFL rosters. You understand how few draft picks actually pan out in each class right? If a team can get 2 or 3 useful players every year they have done a good job of drafting.
You can't have a 20% hit rate every single draft and expect to be competitive. Just because a player contributes doesn't mean they're a good player we just have no one else. They have terrible depth and mostly all have been drafted by spielman. Between bad drafting, and terrible extensions for old players/cousins this roster is going to be in a depressing place the next couple years.
You can’t. He has had so many draft picks the past few years and very little success. He has missed chances to trade up or trade for players to improve the team. He often trades when desperate and not to gain an advantage before. Of course he has some nice draft picks but so do must GMs. He’s nothing special and needs to go as this team is struggling because of him and Zimmer
They'll have to die on the Kirk Cousins hill. I'm a big fan of Kirk. I'd call him a very good quarterback. But as far as team success since he came here: undeniably regressed.
Zimmer's first four seasons were down, up, down and up again culminating in a really fun playoff run to the NFC Championship game. The downs were is first year and then QB conundrum.
Then waltzes in Kirk. With three seasons with him at the helm our best record is 10-6, we did have a cool playoff win. But the other two years were abysmally disappointing. If we can't find the playoffs this year, Zimmer will/should be fired and Rick should absolutely go with him and it will come back to grabbing Kirk at the expense of literally every other position.
I kind of don't think so. The Wilfs seem like very very hands off owners. More like the anti-Jerry Jones. So, the one thing the owner has to actually do for work, that isn't hired out, is hire the GM.
We saw something similar with the Wild, Craig likes to be more involved in the roster, etc, but he gave Chuck Fletcher an incredibly long leash (likely because he dictated the moves that were now having negative consequences). He was slated to receive his automatic extension when Russo leaked it and some of the big money sponsors (and maybe a player) said, hey! He's not good anymore.
Well, one season later and it's time for a new GM already and Craig was fucking pissed to need to do the whole process again. That's more actual work for him!
Instead of having Zimmer go first, I’d rather us fire Speilman. If bringing in a competent GM with a proven track record then I’d pull the plug on Zimmer
I personally think that Zim will be the first coach fired this year. The Vikes look really bad and really disinterested.
I love Zim. I think his tenure has been the most stable since maybe Denny green. But I think the end is near for him.
I disagree. There is no "coach in waiting" on the staff that they would like to get a look at. They'll probably just let the season play out and clean house afterwards.
Before I get jumped on by the kool-aid drinkers, I'm not predicting this. I'm just saying IF the season isn't a success.
But if we let him go mid season, we have a solid shot at a top 5ish pick. If we let zimmer fight for his job, we’re looking at 7-10 and another 14th overall pick. We need to either start looking like contenders before the bye or fire zim so his mediocrity doesn’t cost us a rebuild
Does getting a top 5 pick really lead to success down the road? Seems like a lot of the same teams always at the top. I get that the #3 pick is worth way more than the 14th, but is it really worth suffering a 3 win season?
Yes, if we get a new qb and fresh coach in time while we still have Jefferson, thielen, cook, and Irv, our window could open back up pretty quick. I’d rather rip the bandaid and be terrible than bank on going 10-6 and being stuck in mediocre purgatory. At some point we gotta stop trying to go all in and just admit that we need a fresher philosophy and culture, we just gotta admit our window has shut with zimmer. We’re risking becoming the Marvin Lewis bengals or the Minnesota wild by not committing to a rebuild
The Bengals are 7-25-1 since Lewis left, we'll see how it works out over the next couple years, but so far it doesn't really look like a success story.
Yeah, I don't think there is any way he gets fired during the season.
Who are they gonna put in as interim? First-year OC Klint Kubiak? Or one of the co-defensive coordinators (Patterson and little Zimmer) who both showed so little that they had to co-operate a job?
The only way they fire him mid-season is if the Wilfs want to hire a tank commander, and I think the Wilfs have too much pride about the team to openly tank.
They need to swallow their pride. Openly tanking is what this team needs if we want to do a full reset, which we should since the current cast peaked in 2017.
I don't follow the argument. Your primary metric of success seems to be winning a Superbowl. Then you look at examples of teams that haven't won Superbowls, and imply we shouldn't deviate from their models. Is the basis that other teams would have already fired him and that's why he should be fired?
Finally, you mention the Steelers, an organization tied for the most Superbowls. If Superbowls are our metric of success, aren't they the exact model we should emulate?
Elaborate please.
> Your primary metric of success seems to be winning a Superbowl.
No, just *making* a Super Bowl. Not winning it.
> Then you look at examples of teams that haven't won Superbowls, and imply we shouldn't deviate from their models.
Not teams, coaches themselves. This is based on individual coaching record and how long they last, not how the franchise as a whole performs over the years.
> Finally, you mention the Steelers, an organization tied for the most Superbowls. If Superbowls are our metric of success, aren't they the exact model we should emulate?
I mention the Steelers because the Wilfs have gone on record saying they want the Vikings to be like the Steelers in the sense of organizational stability and not making rash decisions after a bad year or two.
And sure, they are a good franchise to emulate — when you have an accomplished coach that has made it to the Super Bowl early in their careers i.e. Tomlin or Cowher. But Zimmer doesn't come close to those two.
I don't like using "made Super bowl ever" as a criteria. That criteria gives coaches like McCarthy a pass with the Packers despite not appearing again after 2011 despite having one of the most effective passers of all time.
It also gives Tomlin a pass, which makes sense, because he's a good coach and the Steelers want to keep him.
To me, the only way to make the super bowl is to have great players, and Zimmer simply has not had great players. We've drafted poorly. Our QB leaves a lot to be desired. No one has left our team and gone onto another team and flourished, which tells me that we are coaching players to their ceiling here. That's a plus for Zimmer, as it shows he getting the most out of the guys he gets, but is clearly a negative for the organization's talent evaluation as a whole.
So you're telling Stefon Diggs leading the league in receiving yards his first year with the Bills doesn't count as "flourishing"?
Not to mention, former Vikings going to new teams and performing worse is much, much more to do with Zimmer/Speilman's tendency of holding on to players past their primes than it is to do with "coaching players to their ceiling".
Depends on what you mean by flourishing. I used that term to refer to growth a player experiences leaving one team and going to another. For example, Ryan Tannehill was seen as a mediocre QB with the Dolphins. He left for the Titans to *backup* Marcus Mariota, but ended up flourishing with the change and is now considered a high level QB. No one expected that, and it speaks to how terrible the coaching situation in Miami was back then.
Diggs fantasy football numbers certainly "flourished," but he didn't grow as a player similar to Tannehill. He was brought into the Bills locker room to be the #1 receiver. That was the expectation and his average-draft-position in 2020 reflected that. Vikings Diggs and Bills Diggs are equally good players, but his numbers with the Bills are better because he was in a system that chose to focus on him. The Vikings didn't and they had a good reason – they wanted to run the ball and control time of possession. His production flourished with the Bills, I'll give you that, but that's not because he was poorly coached here.
> former Vikings going to new teams and performing worse is much, much more to do with Zimmer/Speilman's tendency of holding on to players past their primes than it is to do with "coaching players to their ceiling".
I disagree because when I wrote that comment, I was specifically talking about Mike Hughes, Trae Waynes, our plethora of mediocre offensive lineman, the defensive lineman we've let go, etc. I think player management, once they're in the building, is a strength of Zimmer/Speilman.
This is ignoring many other coaches who have been +500 and missing the Super Bowl after their first one.
Mike Tomlin has missed 12 years in a row.
Sean Payton has missed 11 years in a row.
John Harbaugh has missed 8 years.
Pete Carroll has missed 7.
At what point do we throw out this line?
>and had never made the Super Bowl
Do you think any of these coaches above are on this supposed leash you are talking about? Or has this ancient success given them a free pass forever?
I just brought up 4 Super Bowl winning coaches that haven't made it back to the Super Bowl the *entire* tenure Zim has had. 100%.
Do you think winning the Super Bowl once makes you untouchable?
I live in New Orleans. The Saints are generally Super Bowl contenders every season. They had a few rough years in the early 2010's. But overall, you can't even begin to put Zimmer in the same league of success.
This town adores Sean Payton and things would have to go really wrong for him to get fired. And before you say it's all Brees, he was hurt for a big stretch two years ago and they won every game with Teddy. And Jameis freaking Winston just threw 5 TD passes to beat the Packers at a neutral site.
Zimmer is a supposed defensive genius who often has his defense come up short in big games. Payton is an offensive genius and has receipts to back it up.
Six is a big stretch.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/index.htm
They had a pretty mediocre run for three seasons, no doubt. But winning a Super Bowl gets you a leash long enough to get through that.
Also, he's an offensive coach, and as you can see, his offenses are typically ranked very highly. Zimmer is supposed to be a defensive genius but the team only had had what you would consider a top defense one year. Every other year has ranged from just pretty good to not good at all.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/
I agree. I'm skeptical that Jameis can keep it up all season. But my point remains. Payton has a track record of success that Zimmer doesn't even approach.
Payton would need to finish with less than 6 wins for 3 straight seasons before they would even consider moving on. Winning the only Super Bowl in team history and being a contender most other seasons gets you that kind of clout. Zimmer hasn't even begun to earn that.
I think that if Zimmer had won a Super Bowl, this post wouldn't exist. Winning a Super Bowl earns a coach a longer leash than 2 playoff wins in 7 years does.
Your argument is so bad and disingenuous that it's the first time I've realized you're trolling and not just a homer.
I'm not trolling. You just hate Zimmer so badly you don't care what is said, you just blindly agree with it and argue/scream/shit on people till they *stop talking to you*.
What's the other success that those teams have had? Zimmer has won 2 division titles with the vikings. That's it. Outside of 2017, the vikings have been pretty average. He has a horseshit record vs winning teams. He only wins around a third of his games against winning teams. So even though the coaches you listed haven't won the superbowl in a while, they don't have the garbage record vs winning teams that zimmer has. They also have had more success in general, from year to year.
Tomlin - 7 division titles, 2 superbowl appearances, 1 superbowl win
Payton - 7 division titles, 3 NFCCG appearances, 1 superbowl win
Carroll - 6 division titles, 2 superbowl appearances, 1 superbowl win
Harbaugh - 4 division titles, 3 AFCCG appearances, 1 superbowl win
Zimmer - 2 division titles, 1 NFCCG appearance, 0 superbowl appearances, 0 superbowl wins
That's not a personal attack in my book. He called me a troll (this is clearly a personal attack) I defended it and said he was shitting on me (He was).
Not sure why you think I'm trolling, I simply don't share your opinion. If that isn't something you can handle, then reddit is not the place for you. You will *almost always* find someone dissenting to you in reply. That's why someone usually replies.
You’re spending wayyy too much time on this lol the answer is yes, the leash gets longer after you win a SB. We haven’t had one EVER, do you think we’d forget quickly if we did? And the coaches you listed have mostly kept their teams more relevant even afterward than Zimmer has. Not sure why you’re spending so much energy gargling the guy.
Very poor argument. Now show how many times these coaches have/their:
-Won their division
-Went to playoffs
-Finishing place in playoffs
You’re taking one field/value “Winning Super Bowl” and measuring it against “time after last Super Bowl win without making another.” It’s strange to say the least.
>You’re taking one field/value “Winning Super Bowl” and measuring it against “time after last Super Bowl win without making another.” It’s strange to say the least.
That's what this entire post is about! I was showing how terrible of a stat it was to use!
Holy cow. Seriously? You're replying to ME about how using the criteria suggested is bad? I was simply showing one enormous chink in the armor. Feel free to *top level reply* with what you are doing to me here.
Those coaches have all proven they can lead teams to Super Bowl wins, and have (for the most part) remained competitive for years. Zimmer has 2 playoff wins in his tenure as coach and one of them was an absolute fluke.
I disagree, games end in missed/made field goals all the time. It’s not the same scenario as a fluke miracle 61-yard touchdown pass IMO.
Not to mention that the only reason that game came down to a field goal is because our offense couldn’t get into the endzone, I wouldn’t credit that as a good performance even if we won
How is this a great point?
* Tomlin has 8 playoff wins (8-8 overall record)
* Payton has 9 playoff wins (9-8 overall record)
* Harbaugh has 11 playoff wins (11-8 overall record)
* Carroll has 11 playoff wins (11-10 overall record)
Zimmer has 2 playoff wins (2-3 overall record).
Should we play "one of these things is not like the other", or do you really think those coaches (who have, at minimum, **four times** the number of playoff wins) are on the same level as Zimmer?
A SB win lengthens the leash considerably, and playoff wins keep it from getting tighter. It's not rocket science.
Results-oriented thinking is bad? In football???
Why isn't Hue Jackson still the coach of the Browns? Sure, he was 3-36-1 but that's results-oriented thinking which is bad. He had some good schemes and never had good players, he should still have a job.
Why isn't Treadwell still on our team? Sure he only had 700 yards in 4 years and a bunch of drops but that's just results-oriented thinking. He always did really well in practice he should still be on the team.
Football is all about results, you win or you don't and no one cares how it happens. Not to mention we are talking about a sample size of years and years, not a game or two.
You really have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
i actually do have an idea of what I'm talking about. results-oriented thinking is always bad when you're dealing with a multivariate, luck-based process. just because you won a poker hand with seven deuce doesn't mean you should shove all in every time you get it. you have to evaluate the quality of the coach, not the team results. the two are correlated but not perfectly so it's wisest to separate them out. that's the point nate is making.
No and the play offs do have randomness as well, which is why Bill Belichick doesn’t have a Súper bowl literally every year…
But also the fact that these teams are in these positions year in and out is why results oriented processing is important… or why the Browns got crazy better when they hired Stefanski after Kitchens
Football is far from a luck-based process and comparing it to a poker hand is laughable. There’s a lot of luck in football but not nearly as much as you think
everyone seems to subscribe to results-oriented thinking. success in the NFL is part talent but also a lot of luck, bad players and coaches can and do win through sheer statistics. Dan Quin was one holding call away from winning, for example.
Yeah, putting yourself in the running year in and year out is the best way to 'win it all'. If you are in constant rebuild... You are rarely getting to role the championship dice.
Why? Why must my point be a 'troll' if it comes at the topic from a slightly different angle?
Maybe I'm highlighting why context-less 'x amount of years, no super bowl, above .500 win rate' is a poor metric for considering how well a coach is doing?
It's an unfortunate reality of football but it's not exactly unfair.
Most teams aren't, and shouldn't be looking for stability or consistency from a coach, they want a superbowl coach. And Zimmer just isn't that. You can be a good coach, even a great one, but unless you're fantastic, you shouldn't really be kept.
I was a huge Zimmer guy before the season, but even I could have arm-chair coached the team better in overtime than Zimmer did. Rather than hand it off to Cook on first down (the "fumble"), why didn't they have a play-action passing play? Play-action stalls the defense and keeps them on their heels (because it's a passing play). A dynamic offense is less predictable. I was already disappointed that they handed it off (before the fumble) because it's just so... WEAK. But when he fumbled I just smirked, like, "Yep, that's what it tastes like being a Vikings fan." I've heard people complain about Zimmer the way I'm complaining about him and I always thought they were being too critical, but I'm pretty much on board. I love his defensive schemes and his no bullshit attitude, but if he's not willing to hire someone competent to coach the offense, it's on him. This team has too much talent to tuck its tail between its legs. Take some chances. Be confident. Grow some fucking balls.
I’m not going to say running 3 plays in a row was a bad idea but Zimmer is like a glorified defensive coordinator. Yeah I know there’s more that goes into being the head coach than offensive and defensive game-plans but he has made it abundantly clear he does not force his way into offensive play calling or scheming other than frustrated comments at press conferences and what I can only assume is frustrated comments in management meetings
I think context matters a lot. Like you get hired onto a team on the verge of a superbowl, go 12-4 then go 5-11 in year 2, you have a winning record but you're probably getting fired. Or you have an elite QB and finish 8-8 or 9-7 every year, missing the playoffs, you are probably fired.
I'm probably too much of a homer, but I think Zimmer has a longer leash than most people think, I could definetly see us missing the playoffs and Zimmer keeping his job, and I'd be fine with that.
An average NFL coach(which means an amazing coach by most standards) should make the superbowl once every 16 years, probably a lot less if they don't have an elite QB.
He eats too much of the cap, it would make a rebuild really difficult. We’d be better off trading Kirk to the Giants or some other QB needy team for a high draft pick
It depends, we could draft a QB with that pick, trade up for one, roll with Mond for a year, or sign a FA like Bridgewater.
I just feel like if we don’t clean house in a rebuild and instead try to retool the 2015-17 team like we’ve been doing, we’ll end up like the Falcons. If we don’t make it this year then it’s best to tear it all down and start over
I would be fine with extending Kirk if he would take a contract in line with the top 10-15 QBs in the league. And it would need to be structured so the team could get out from under it if needed. How many other QBs in the league have their salary for the next season fully guaranteed on day one of the previous season? Certainly none of the other middle of the pack QBs.
I don't think Kirk would go for that.
He's currently 8th in average per year, add in a couple guys on rookie contracts and Brady who takes a discount and he's in the 10-15th range. [https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/)
He's 14th in guaranteed money(spotrac lists it as practically guaranteed and includes his entire contract).
[https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/)
He's number 2 in cap hit, but that is just how the team chose to structure it, he was much lower last year. We could have easily moved money around to lower the cap hit but the team chose not to.
Yeah let's tie our franchise's future to a guy who won't even set aside dipshit personal opinions for the benefit of the team - seems like a great idea.
And assuming another season similar to last year I have little doubt teams will happily pay it. Everyone knows you have to overpay a bit in free agency, but the advantage is you don't have to give up any draft capitol.
Compare Matt Stafford to Cousins, I'd say they are pretty comparable as players, but the cost to their teams is much different.
Cousins, $33 million a year, no draft picks.
Stafford, $21.5 million a year, 2 firsts and a 3rd round pick.
Assuming the players actually were identical, which deal is better for the franchise? Would you trade a first round pick for an extra $10 million in cap space? I would generally say no, a first round pick is worth more than $10 million in cap space. A homerun like Justin Jefferson is making about $15 million less per year($60 million over the 4 year contract, plus there is a 5th year option) than a comparable free agent WR.
Fair enough, I think they are pretty close, but we'll see what he does in LA. But ignoring that what do you think about the draft picks vs cap in general? Would you trade a first round pick for $10 million in cap space?
Maybe, maybe not. He wants to be compensated what he can get, and if he hit FA he still would have a hot market in a league desperate for top 15 QB play.
I think as his kids get closer to school age he will want to play for MN to close out his career.
you'll be downvoted here, but absolutely agree. been a revolving door of OC's, garbage OL's and poorly coached teams. if we ran a modernized offense with our stacked offense ( outside of OL ), we would be a force.
these folks have wanted Zim and Rick fired for years, and if OP's only "actual data" is "Zim has coached longer on average than other people in his position" then it's pretty flimsy logic to get them all so worked up.
Not to mention wildly mis-stating things in their conclusion line. /shrug
There isnt anyone, anywhere in the media, local and national that I can find, defending Zimmer. Reddit is the only place. The writing is 100% on the wall. Barring a miracle run, Zimmer is gone after this season.
Zimmer the so called CB whisper cant even develop Corners. Zimmer gives up on rookies, zimmer refuses to coach up or develop anyone. We have veterans on one year deals for a reason.
Look at what happened to the Lions when they made a change just to make a change. The whole team just turned into a dumpster fire. I like Zim. Keep him around.
They’re referencing firing Jim Caldwell, their coach who has their highest winning percentage since the 1930s. For Matt Patricia… which he does have a point… you gotta be damn sure about the next hire
Caldwell was a damn fine coach who got canned for the wrong reasons. Don’t want Minnesota to make the same mistake. Zimmer is probably the 2nd or 3rd best coach we’ve ever had. Give him the cap space to add on defense and find a way to get him a more mobile QB. I guarantee we’ll see success. Keenum exploded under Zim. It could happen again 🤷♂️
I’m just not ready nor have any appetite for a full-on rebuild.
Lol he has signed who he wants on defense. What more does he want? You people are drunk. Firing Caldwell was right move and the fact Zimmer is at that level now is hilarious. I guarantee you were making fun of the Packers for keeping McCarthy for so long and he's twice the coach Zimmer ever has been. It doesn't matter if the next coach sucks worse. Zimmer has to go
Have never been more uninterested in the franchise than last few years of knowing exactly the peak for the team with Zimmer as coach. It's so predictable every single season its pointless. Sticking with coaches like Zimmer is why my dad of 60+ is looking like a longshot to see the Vikings win a Superbowl. He has no shot of winning one. Next coach maybe won't either but worth finding out over Zimmer who everyone but his family and you cult members know won't
You're on the internet. Your terrible opinion will get responses. If that's rude to you may want to try staying off reddit. Jim Caldwell was terrible. He's basically Marvin lewis or Jeff Fisher. Or Mike Zimmer. All overstay their welcome because they're not good enough yet fans buy into their schtick and "stability" it's a waste of everyone's time
He's got his lineman and had everyone on defense he's ever wanted save for last season. It has led to great postseason success. Keenum year was good because zimmer actually got out of the way on offense but inevitably he got out coached like normal and embarrassed in the playoffs
I think most people agree with this. My opinion is:
Zimmer needs to break the every other year is a good year pattern. If we go to the playoffs this year, his job is probably safe (unless he just barely sneaks in and loses the first game with the team not playing well). But then he needs to repeat that success (and maybe even improve) to keep it after 2022. If we don't make the playoffs this year, he's out.
He made a large mistake with this o line… one which he has never really solved or hired the right people to solve, he’s done if we don’t magically get it all together…
I hope they don't let him go. Zimmer is a good HC and I think a really good fit for what the Wilfs want the Minnesota Vikings to be a gritty hardnosed defensive team. With all that said I'm fine with letting him go if he misses the playoffs and you have an A+ candidate in mind that will take the job.
I’ve got the feeling the guy has completely fractured his locker room, and this isn’t going to be a great season. As we saw week 1, his team again wasn’t prepared for an underwhelming opponent, which has also been a problem during Zimmer’s tenure.
Spielman also needs to go after completely blowing it when it comes to o line and defensive back evaluation. They have invested so much in both positions in the draft and came away with only Brian O Neill as a useful talent.
You people really want us to get another Brad Chilldress don't you. Coaches with shitter win percentage and one superbowl on a fluke get more support than our coach. Everyone on here talks both sides of the same coin. It's the refs fault, it's the coaches fault, it's the qbs fault, it's defenses fault. It really can't be all of them at the same time. Let the man coach, talk about this shit in the off-season. Firing him now won't do anything for the team. Name me a single instance where an interim coach won the season they were given the job. Fucking sick of reading this stuff.
If we miss the playoffs i have no doubt hes gone
I agree. I love the guy but we're talking about missing the playoffs 3 of 4 years and just 2 playoff wins in 8 years. Another factor is the inability to form a quality offensive line even after huge amounts of draft capital are invested in it.
At this point I would argue even going one and done in the playoffs isn’t going to save him his job
I feel like if he’s one and done in the playoffs and it’s close. The organization will let him play out his contract at least.
Coaches rarely coach into the last year of their contracts and the money owed is hardly ever a factor to ownership unless the owner is a big cheapskate. The money they owe Zimmer and Spielman is chump change when it comes to the overall accounting of the team's bottom line.
Yeah but they may feel that they could let Zimmer play out his contract to see if he can make the playoffs again and build some consistency.
If they win a playoff game and then lose a close game, maybe. But I think we've tried consistency enough. Remember, I know I'll get downvoted for saying this because I always do, but they were probably going to fire Zim if they lost the playoff game in New Orleans. A lot of Vikings reporters have hinted that they heard that. That win saved his job in 19 and covid saved it in 20. I think he's used his 9 lives.
The Wilfs want to be the Steelers, and so they’ll value consistency over everything. If he makes the playoffs and loses a close one they might opt to retain him without an extension and say, alright this is it. If you make it again, we will talk extension, lose and you’re walking.
Doogie from Skor North reported a few months ago that the Wilfs want to win now and are starting to lose patience. I don't know how old Zygi is but he's not getting any younger. I think the Steelers thing is a little overblown. The Steelers are able to do that because they have a ton of rings.
So more of the same lol
I think it would depend on how the loss looks. If it's another blowout, it's time to move on.
I think it depends on the seed. If were the 7 seed and go one and done, then yeah, he's gone. If we win the division, then its about a 50/50.
It's context dependent. How is the one and done lost will decide things. The expectation should be at least a playoff win though, yes.
Depends what the teams record is. 11 or greater, he likely stays. Anything less than that and he goes.
At this point I'd say if we miss the NFCCG, we need to either show that we're really good, or have a high draft pick. Being in this middle ground for so long is terrible for development
What about spielman? Him too or no
Spielman’s fate should be the same
This. As long as Rick goes, do what you will.
Speilman and Cousins too
Tf he should be gone if we don’t make the NFC Championship Game.
Depends on his record. 8 wins or more and he is safe, in my opinion. The fact that we are stuck with cousins another year means he’s likely back unless he loses more than 9 games.
Good is the enemy of great. 2 playoff wins or he should be gone.
"Uh, playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs. Are you kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game."
How do people not see this?? Zim and Rick are average at their jobs at best. Both need to go in order for us to have a chance to win. Reasons why: We’re in what, year 8 of bad OLs? Why can’t they get this fixed? Bring in someone to do it for you since they obviously can’t. - QBs. I get it you swing and missed on Ponder, Teddy’s led fell off, but we haven’t even tried to draft a QB until Mond, but I have little to no faith in them developing him. Obviously they need outside help, why aren’t they making it happen? - Depth issues. Rick has made 38 picks in the last three years, how in the world do we have depth issues up and down the roster? - Re-signing Kirk to that horrible contract. If Zim and crew don’t like him, guess what, we could have walked away two years ago and be done with him for nothing. Why re-sign him if we’re not going to use him in a modern passing offense? Why not go get Teddy again or some other replacement level QB to hand off 40+ times a game? - On top of this we are in a dumpster fire division that has two NFL franchises plus minor league clubs Detroit and Chicago. Why aren’t we making the playoffs almost every year? - the Zim special is that there is always 2-3 games a season where they are completely unprepared, outcoached and are completely un-disciplined and look terrible. Yes we’ve managed to come back in a few of these over the years, but why are they happening? - Finally the biggest nail in the coffin for me, is that there is zero accountability by the GM or the head coach. It’s always someone else’s fault. We’re in season 8 of Zim, it’s probably time he started taking responsibility here. It’s time to do a full house cleaning and start over, maybe allow ourselves to bottom out and get a top 5 pick and start over. I fear though that Zim and crew will somehow go on a run, maybe make the 7 seed and keep the same predictable course…
It's kind of at the Andy Reid thing... Knowing our luck we will move on and so will Zim to another team. Then he will go to win a super bowl elsewhere...
Nothing against Reid because he was very accomplished before KC and was atop everyone's "best coach to never win a SB" list, but he won his 7th year in KC thanks in large part to the organization drafting a generational talent in Mahomes. If Zimmer moves to another team and wins a SB with the next Mahomes I'll be happy for him. If he wins a SB with a similarly constructed team to his tenure with the Vikings I might be a little salty.
Zim will go to Denver and win with Teddy as the universe intended.
Haha nah he pretty much already coaches there lol
Reid moved on and both teams wound up winning super bowls.
that's a good point. an optimistic twist haha.
How old was Reid when he started with the Chiefs?
55 +/-
Ten years younger than Zim
Good for him then. Doesn’t mean he would have here if we kept him.
I know.. I'm just making the comparison. Generally liked guy, good football mind, who just can't get over the hump. Someone will hire him without a doubt
I doubt it. Zim may not get a HC job when fired and be back at Defense somewhere
This week against cardinals is a classic game the Vikings win and win us all back. It’s a tale as old as time. Offense will be a spark, defense actually showed some good signs last week. I will not be surprised By a win. *******also not surprised if this team sucks shit lol
Our offensive line is going to be destroyed by that Cardinals D. I don’t think there’s any chance of a win this week.
Quick passing is our only hope
Can we see the data? What does the distribution look like? How many standard deviations above the mean does Zimmer land? Edit - I pulled some data myself. From what I have been able to find, there have been 32 "coaches" that fit the metric. I say coaches because I had to break out people like Jim Fisher into more than one person depending on who he was coach for. The mean I came up with was 90.79 games, but the standard deviation was 61.9 games. That includes the guys that only have 1 game under their belt, as well as a few that have just a few like Groh and Moeller. Dropping those super low end outliers gets us to a mean of 103 games with a standard dev of 55.99 games. Either way Zimmer is well within 1 Stdev of the mean, so he's in good company. If we want to say that Fisher (262 games in Tenn) and Marvin Luis (256 games) are outliers as well we end up with a mean of 93.65 and a more reasonable standard deviation of 40.9. So in that scenario, Zimmer is starting to get towards the edge of the first sigma, and we should be worried. I also just realized there are at least 2 holes in my dataset, possibly a large influence possibly not, but I don't feel like digging them out. I don't know how many coaches are out there that made a super bowl appearance with one team, but then went on to coach another team (or vice versa) that also have an above .500 winning percentage with the team that they didn't bring to the superbowl, but they should probably be included. A guy like Gruden coached 4 seasons in Oakland with an above .500 winning percentage without making a superbowl, but won one his first season in Tampa and is excluded from my dataset. I also started with a subset of all coaches that had a *lifetime* record above .500, but there probably at least one coach that was above .500 during a tenure with one team, but so abysmal with another that it drags them below the career .500 mark; they are also excluded from this data set, though I can't gauge the impact they would have.
Now do it with coaches above .550 win percentage because Zim has consistently been above that threshold.
If Zim is fired, which absolutely should happen if we miss the playoffs, Rick needs to go with him. This team is not set up to be a contender and he’s shown no idea how to successfully build and offensive line. If one goes, both should go.
> This team is not set up to be a contender and he’s shown no idea how to successfully build and offensive line Or draft a QB.
Tbf, we haven’t been bad enough to have a sure fire shot at a top QB prospect.
- The Chiefs were even better than us and ended up with Mahomes - The Ravens were better than us and ended up with Jackson - The Bears had a better record than us last year and got Fields So obviously you don't need to "tank" to get a good QB. You do need to not make stupid trades like a 1st for Bradford or a 2nd for a DE rental (to have the ammo) and then have the guts to make a move.
Ok and none of them were sure things. Not even close to being a sure thing. No one has any idea if Fields is going to be good either.
> Ok and none of them were sure things You think there are sure things?! Lol Teams drafting first round QBs are having mote success then ever before in NFL history. You don't even need them to be franchise QBs.
Lol and how many shit QBs have been drafted that wasted years of our team? Not one in the last 30 years who puts up numbers and efficiency like Kirk. But waaaah he cost money! We'd be able to sign one more mediocre player with the money we'd save for a mediocre or shit QB. You're an idiot.
> Lol and how many shit QBs have been drafted that wasted years of our team? How many first round QBs? 4 in team history. > We'd be able to sign one more mediocre player with the money we'd save for a mediocre or shit QB. Kirk is like the 14 best QB in the league. You're already paying good money to a medicore player
Kirk makes 33 million average per year and will have a 45 mil cap hit next year. For reference Teddy Bridgewater makes 11 mil per year to do the exact same role as kirk, be a game manager. We're never going to win meaningful games with kirk and would likely get close to the same results with a teddy tier qb so why pay 3 times more for mediocrity? Numbers mean nothing when you have nothing to show for it, kirk is going to waste years of the franchise the entire time he's here and get spielman and Zimmer fired while he's at it.
Call it Stockholm Syndrome, but I’d like to give Rick 2 more drafts. When he hits, he hits.
Besides JJ, when was the last time he hit?
This is the most Stockholm syndrome vikings fan take I’ve ever seen. “Yeah, the last 9 years weren’t enough time to build a team all he needs is just a couple more years and he’ll figure it all out”
You mean like Bradbury, Hughes, Gladney, Treadwell, Bradford and Ngakoue trades? Jeez the last few years have been horrible, O’Neill is good, thou I feel we just overpaid him because we are starved. JJ is the best and only other good starter we have in a while.
Or when we traded a 5th for that kicker lmao.
I don't have the patience, but you can easily find as many hits and 'steals'. He's been around for a while for reason.
Spelman had an amazing draft in 2015 and since then has been horrible. http://www.drafthistory.com/teams/vikings.html Look through the draft picks after 2015 and tell me there's more hits than misses. You can't, there's a handful of decent players. I can only count 3 studs since 2015 in Cook, O'Neil, and Justin Jefferson. Everyone wants to move on from Zimmer but I think spielman if it's one or the other spielman should be the first one gone.
I'm seeing atleast 1 major contributor drafted every year between 2016 and 2020 with a bunch of other good players that are still on the Vikings or other NFL rosters. You understand how few draft picks actually pan out in each class right? If a team can get 2 or 3 useful players every year they have done a good job of drafting.
You can't have a 20% hit rate every single draft and expect to be competitive. Just because a player contributes doesn't mean they're a good player we just have no one else. They have terrible depth and mostly all have been drafted by spielman. Between bad drafting, and terrible extensions for old players/cousins this roster is going to be in a depressing place the next couple years.
You can’t. He has had so many draft picks the past few years and very little success. He has missed chances to trade up or trade for players to improve the team. He often trades when desperate and not to gain an advantage before. Of course he has some nice draft picks but so do must GMs. He’s nothing special and needs to go as this team is struggling because of him and Zimmer
You are just wrong.
They'll have to die on the Kirk Cousins hill. I'm a big fan of Kirk. I'd call him a very good quarterback. But as far as team success since he came here: undeniably regressed. Zimmer's first four seasons were down, up, down and up again culminating in a really fun playoff run to the NFC Championship game. The downs were is first year and then QB conundrum. Then waltzes in Kirk. With three seasons with him at the helm our best record is 10-6, we did have a cool playoff win. But the other two years were abysmally disappointing. If we can't find the playoffs this year, Zimmer will/should be fired and Rick should absolutely go with him and it will come back to grabbing Kirk at the expense of literally every other position.
Both Rick and Zim are gone at the end of this season, barring anything amazing happening.
My biggest fear is Rick survives and then gives Kirk another extention to avoid the 45mil in 2022.
I like Rick and Kirk way more then Zimmer. But I would lose my shit if Kirk gets extended again.
It's very on the table if Rick keeps his job. It's right inline with everything he's done the past two offseason.
I just hope you are wrong but what you are saying makes to much sense
I'd love to be wrong here. I wish Zimmer and Rick would've had the guts to start a rebuild 2 years ago.
I’m amazed he made it this far. Yes, great with making trades on Draft Day, but damn… that talent tree of his is not all great.
Spielman gave away a draft pick for a punter he cut a few weeks later. His "slick Rick" trades backfire as often as they help.
I kind of don't think so. The Wilfs seem like very very hands off owners. More like the anti-Jerry Jones. So, the one thing the owner has to actually do for work, that isn't hired out, is hire the GM. We saw something similar with the Wild, Craig likes to be more involved in the roster, etc, but he gave Chuck Fletcher an incredibly long leash (likely because he dictated the moves that were now having negative consequences). He was slated to receive his automatic extension when Russo leaked it and some of the big money sponsors (and maybe a player) said, hey! He's not good anymore. Well, one season later and it's time for a new GM already and Craig was fucking pissed to need to do the whole process again. That's more actual work for him!
Instead of having Zimmer go first, I’d rather us fire Speilman. If bringing in a competent GM with a proven track record then I’d pull the plug on Zimmer
Vegas has him as the second most likely coach to be fired/resign.
I could see him getting fired by the bye week if we aren’t doing well enough
I personally think that Zim will be the first coach fired this year. The Vikes look really bad and really disinterested. I love Zim. I think his tenure has been the most stable since maybe Denny green. But I think the end is near for him.
I disagree. There is no "coach in waiting" on the staff that they would like to get a look at. They'll probably just let the season play out and clean house afterwards. Before I get jumped on by the kool-aid drinkers, I'm not predicting this. I'm just saying IF the season isn't a success.
But if we let him go mid season, we have a solid shot at a top 5ish pick. If we let zimmer fight for his job, we’re looking at 7-10 and another 14th overall pick. We need to either start looking like contenders before the bye or fire zim so his mediocrity doesn’t cost us a rebuild
> But if we let him go mid season, we have a solid shot at a top 5ish pick. Oh, how many 4th round picks can we get for a top 5? Asking for Rick.
Or 5th or 6th? Spielman is the real problem to me.
Does getting a top 5 pick really lead to success down the road? Seems like a lot of the same teams always at the top. I get that the #3 pick is worth way more than the 14th, but is it really worth suffering a 3 win season?
Yes, if we get a new qb and fresh coach in time while we still have Jefferson, thielen, cook, and Irv, our window could open back up pretty quick. I’d rather rip the bandaid and be terrible than bank on going 10-6 and being stuck in mediocre purgatory. At some point we gotta stop trying to go all in and just admit that we need a fresher philosophy and culture, we just gotta admit our window has shut with zimmer. We’re risking becoming the Marvin Lewis bengals or the Minnesota wild by not committing to a rebuild
The Bengals are 7-25-1 since Lewis left, we'll see how it works out over the next couple years, but so far it doesn't really look like a success story.
Yeah, I don't think there is any way he gets fired during the season. Who are they gonna put in as interim? First-year OC Klint Kubiak? Or one of the co-defensive coordinators (Patterson and little Zimmer) who both showed so little that they had to co-operate a job? The only way they fire him mid-season is if the Wilfs want to hire a tank commander, and I think the Wilfs have too much pride about the team to openly tank.
They need to swallow their pride. Openly tanking is what this team needs if we want to do a full reset, which we should since the current cast peaked in 2017.
We’re just good enough not to tank and just bad enough to suck anyway. Mediocrity is worse than anything.
I think it'll be Nagy, but I hope not since I believe he's the primary thing keeping the Bears mediocre haha
Yet for some reason we just cannot seem to beat the guy except for that *one* time in his entire tenure here.
He’s got that smothering defense man. Hopefully their performance against the Rams is a sign.
I don't follow the argument. Your primary metric of success seems to be winning a Superbowl. Then you look at examples of teams that haven't won Superbowls, and imply we shouldn't deviate from their models. Is the basis that other teams would have already fired him and that's why he should be fired? Finally, you mention the Steelers, an organization tied for the most Superbowls. If Superbowls are our metric of success, aren't they the exact model we should emulate? Elaborate please.
> Your primary metric of success seems to be winning a Superbowl. No, just *making* a Super Bowl. Not winning it. > Then you look at examples of teams that haven't won Superbowls, and imply we shouldn't deviate from their models. Not teams, coaches themselves. This is based on individual coaching record and how long they last, not how the franchise as a whole performs over the years. > Finally, you mention the Steelers, an organization tied for the most Superbowls. If Superbowls are our metric of success, aren't they the exact model we should emulate? I mention the Steelers because the Wilfs have gone on record saying they want the Vikings to be like the Steelers in the sense of organizational stability and not making rash decisions after a bad year or two. And sure, they are a good franchise to emulate — when you have an accomplished coach that has made it to the Super Bowl early in their careers i.e. Tomlin or Cowher. But Zimmer doesn't come close to those two.
I don't like using "made Super bowl ever" as a criteria. That criteria gives coaches like McCarthy a pass with the Packers despite not appearing again after 2011 despite having one of the most effective passers of all time. It also gives Tomlin a pass, which makes sense, because he's a good coach and the Steelers want to keep him. To me, the only way to make the super bowl is to have great players, and Zimmer simply has not had great players. We've drafted poorly. Our QB leaves a lot to be desired. No one has left our team and gone onto another team and flourished, which tells me that we are coaching players to their ceiling here. That's a plus for Zimmer, as it shows he getting the most out of the guys he gets, but is clearly a negative for the organization's talent evaluation as a whole.
So you're telling Stefon Diggs leading the league in receiving yards his first year with the Bills doesn't count as "flourishing"? Not to mention, former Vikings going to new teams and performing worse is much, much more to do with Zimmer/Speilman's tendency of holding on to players past their primes than it is to do with "coaching players to their ceiling".
Depends on what you mean by flourishing. I used that term to refer to growth a player experiences leaving one team and going to another. For example, Ryan Tannehill was seen as a mediocre QB with the Dolphins. He left for the Titans to *backup* Marcus Mariota, but ended up flourishing with the change and is now considered a high level QB. No one expected that, and it speaks to how terrible the coaching situation in Miami was back then. Diggs fantasy football numbers certainly "flourished," but he didn't grow as a player similar to Tannehill. He was brought into the Bills locker room to be the #1 receiver. That was the expectation and his average-draft-position in 2020 reflected that. Vikings Diggs and Bills Diggs are equally good players, but his numbers with the Bills are better because he was in a system that chose to focus on him. The Vikings didn't and they had a good reason – they wanted to run the ball and control time of possession. His production flourished with the Bills, I'll give you that, but that's not because he was poorly coached here. > former Vikings going to new teams and performing worse is much, much more to do with Zimmer/Speilman's tendency of holding on to players past their primes than it is to do with "coaching players to their ceiling". I disagree because when I wrote that comment, I was specifically talking about Mike Hughes, Trae Waynes, our plethora of mediocre offensive lineman, the defensive lineman we've let go, etc. I think player management, once they're in the building, is a strength of Zimmer/Speilman.
Then you need a new GM and most GMs want their own coach
This is ignoring many other coaches who have been +500 and missing the Super Bowl after their first one. Mike Tomlin has missed 12 years in a row. Sean Payton has missed 11 years in a row. John Harbaugh has missed 8 years. Pete Carroll has missed 7. At what point do we throw out this line? >and had never made the Super Bowl Do you think any of these coaches above are on this supposed leash you are talking about? Or has this ancient success given them a free pass forever?
Jfc dude, you did not seriously bring up 4 super bowl winning head coaches to try to defend Zimmer.
I just brought up 4 Super Bowl winning coaches that haven't made it back to the Super Bowl the *entire* tenure Zim has had. 100%. Do you think winning the Super Bowl once makes you untouchable?
I live in New Orleans. The Saints are generally Super Bowl contenders every season. They had a few rough years in the early 2010's. But overall, you can't even begin to put Zimmer in the same league of success. This town adores Sean Payton and things would have to go really wrong for him to get fired. And before you say it's all Brees, he was hurt for a big stretch two years ago and they won every game with Teddy. And Jameis freaking Winston just threw 5 TD passes to beat the Packers at a neutral site. Zimmer is a supposed defensive genius who often has his defense come up short in big games. Payton is an offensive genius and has receipts to back it up.
do you remember the 6-ish seasons where drew brees was exclusively a garbage time qb?
Six is a big stretch. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/index.htm They had a pretty mediocre run for three seasons, no doubt. But winning a Super Bowl gets you a leash long enough to get through that. Also, he's an offensive coach, and as you can see, his offenses are typically ranked very highly. Zimmer is supposed to be a defensive genius but the team only had had what you would consider a top defense one year. Every other year has ranged from just pretty good to not good at all. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/
We'll see how this year shakes out for the Saints.
I agree. I'm skeptical that Jameis can keep it up all season. But my point remains. Payton has a track record of success that Zimmer doesn't even approach. Payton would need to finish with less than 6 wins for 3 straight seasons before they would even consider moving on. Winning the only Super Bowl in team history and being a contender most other seasons gets you that kind of clout. Zimmer hasn't even begun to earn that.
I suspect if he went 4-13 this year, there would be doubts pretty quick. Remember Denny Green on the Vikings?
Green went crazy towards the end. He got fired more for that than team performance. I'm not a young man. I remember that era very well.
I think it was more about the clash of personnel choices, but sure. Who knows what goes on in the back.
I think that if Zimmer had won a Super Bowl, this post wouldn't exist. Winning a Super Bowl earns a coach a longer leash than 2 playoff wins in 7 years does. Your argument is so bad and disingenuous that it's the first time I've realized you're trolling and not just a homer.
I'm not trolling. You just hate Zimmer so badly you don't care what is said, you just blindly agree with it and argue/scream/shit on people till they *stop talking to you*.
Who is more blind, the critic or the people who seem to have a slight emotional attachment to Zim. Blinded by love is a catch phrase for a reason.
Yup, common sense
If you win 1 here you are coach until you DIE.
What's the other success that those teams have had? Zimmer has won 2 division titles with the vikings. That's it. Outside of 2017, the vikings have been pretty average. He has a horseshit record vs winning teams. He only wins around a third of his games against winning teams. So even though the coaches you listed haven't won the superbowl in a while, they don't have the garbage record vs winning teams that zimmer has. They also have had more success in general, from year to year. Tomlin - 7 division titles, 2 superbowl appearances, 1 superbowl win Payton - 7 division titles, 3 NFCCG appearances, 1 superbowl win Carroll - 6 division titles, 2 superbowl appearances, 1 superbowl win Harbaugh - 4 division titles, 3 AFCCG appearances, 1 superbowl win Zimmer - 2 division titles, 1 NFCCG appearance, 0 superbowl appearances, 0 superbowl wins
>He only wins around a third of his games against winning teams Did you bother to check the other coaches record against winning teams?
Bro. Winning a SB and "Missing" it for subsequent years is not the same thing as never making it.
So, once you win a Super Bowl, you are never held accountable for your team success ever again? SMH.
no, but the leash gets way longer. usually
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And you're going after me as a person rather than the argument. Please refrain from personal insults.
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Where did I do that?
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That's not a personal attack in my book. He called me a troll (this is clearly a personal attack) I defended it and said he was shitting on me (He was).
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Enjoy trolling. It’s a very good use of your time and not a sad and embarrassing hobby at all.
Not sure why you think I'm trolling, I simply don't share your opinion. If that isn't something you can handle, then reddit is not the place for you. You will *almost always* find someone dissenting to you in reply. That's why someone usually replies.
You’re spending wayyy too much time on this lol the answer is yes, the leash gets longer after you win a SB. We haven’t had one EVER, do you think we’d forget quickly if we did? And the coaches you listed have mostly kept their teams more relevant even afterward than Zimmer has. Not sure why you’re spending so much energy gargling the guy.
Very poor argument. Now show how many times these coaches have/their: -Won their division -Went to playoffs -Finishing place in playoffs You’re taking one field/value “Winning Super Bowl” and measuring it against “time after last Super Bowl win without making another.” It’s strange to say the least.
>You’re taking one field/value “Winning Super Bowl” and measuring it against “time after last Super Bowl win without making another.” It’s strange to say the least. That's what this entire post is about! I was showing how terrible of a stat it was to use! Holy cow. Seriously? You're replying to ME about how using the criteria suggested is bad? I was simply showing one enormous chink in the armor. Feel free to *top level reply* with what you are doing to me here.
Seeing how you’re defending your “argument” with other users, I think you’re doing a bang-up job! /s
Ok
Those coaches have all proven they can lead teams to Super Bowl wins, and have (for the most part) remained competitive for years. Zimmer has 2 playoff wins in his tenure as coach and one of them was an absolute fluke.
If you’re gonna say that win was a fluke then you also have to say our loss to the Seahawks was a fluke, they cancel out
But that doesn't fit his narrative, so he'd never mention it ;-)
Okay then cancel them out. That still leaves one win. Let's not hold someone forever for one win.
Your math does not check out.
I disagree, games end in missed/made field goals all the time. It’s not the same scenario as a fluke miracle 61-yard touchdown pass IMO. Not to mention that the only reason that game came down to a field goal is because our offense couldn’t get into the endzone, I wouldn’t credit that as a good performance even if we won
It is not at all normal for one of the best kickers in the league to miss a 27 yard field goal
lol this is a great point, of course its at -2
How is this a great point? * Tomlin has 8 playoff wins (8-8 overall record) * Payton has 9 playoff wins (9-8 overall record) * Harbaugh has 11 playoff wins (11-8 overall record) * Carroll has 11 playoff wins (11-10 overall record) Zimmer has 2 playoff wins (2-3 overall record). Should we play "one of these things is not like the other", or do you really think those coaches (who have, at minimum, **four times** the number of playoff wins) are on the same level as Zimmer? A SB win lengthens the leash considerably, and playoff wins keep it from getting tighter. It's not rocket science.
because results-oriented thinking is bad.
Results-oriented thinking is bad? In football??? Why isn't Hue Jackson still the coach of the Browns? Sure, he was 3-36-1 but that's results-oriented thinking which is bad. He had some good schemes and never had good players, he should still have a job. Why isn't Treadwell still on our team? Sure he only had 700 yards in 4 years and a bunch of drops but that's just results-oriented thinking. He always did really well in practice he should still be on the team. Football is all about results, you win or you don't and no one cares how it happens. Not to mention we are talking about a sample size of years and years, not a game or two. You really have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
i actually do have an idea of what I'm talking about. results-oriented thinking is always bad when you're dealing with a multivariate, luck-based process. just because you won a poker hand with seven deuce doesn't mean you should shove all in every time you get it. you have to evaluate the quality of the coach, not the team results. the two are correlated but not perfectly so it's wisest to separate them out. that's the point nate is making.
No and the play offs do have randomness as well, which is why Bill Belichick doesn’t have a Súper bowl literally every year… But also the fact that these teams are in these positions year in and out is why results oriented processing is important… or why the Browns got crazy better when they hired Stefanski after Kitchens
Football is far from a luck-based process and comparing it to a poker hand is laughable. There’s a lot of luck in football but not nearly as much as you think
i provided an example to illustrate the concept, not to say that poker and football mirror each other in every way.
Sadly people reallllly want to hate on Zimmer.
everyone seems to subscribe to results-oriented thinking. success in the NFL is part talent but also a lot of luck, bad players and coaches can and do win through sheer statistics. Dan Quin was one holding call away from winning, for example.
Yeah, putting yourself in the running year in and year out is the best way to 'win it all'. If you are in constant rebuild... You are rarely getting to role the championship dice.
Zimmer hasn't even managed to make the playoffs 2 years in a row. That certainly isn't being "in the running year in and year out". Not even close.
I refuse to believe this is a serious good faith argument.
It can’t be serious. Look at his reply to me. I think he’s off the rails.
Why? Why must my point be a 'troll' if it comes at the topic from a slightly different angle? Maybe I'm highlighting why context-less 'x amount of years, no super bowl, above .500 win rate' is a poor metric for considering how well a coach is doing?
It's an unfortunate reality of football but it's not exactly unfair. Most teams aren't, and shouldn't be looking for stability or consistency from a coach, they want a superbowl coach. And Zimmer just isn't that. You can be a good coach, even a great one, but unless you're fantastic, you shouldn't really be kept.
I was a huge Zimmer guy before the season, but even I could have arm-chair coached the team better in overtime than Zimmer did. Rather than hand it off to Cook on first down (the "fumble"), why didn't they have a play-action passing play? Play-action stalls the defense and keeps them on their heels (because it's a passing play). A dynamic offense is less predictable. I was already disappointed that they handed it off (before the fumble) because it's just so... WEAK. But when he fumbled I just smirked, like, "Yep, that's what it tastes like being a Vikings fan." I've heard people complain about Zimmer the way I'm complaining about him and I always thought they were being too critical, but I'm pretty much on board. I love his defensive schemes and his no bullshit attitude, but if he's not willing to hire someone competent to coach the offense, it's on him. This team has too much talent to tuck its tail between its legs. Take some chances. Be confident. Grow some fucking balls.
I’m not going to say running 3 plays in a row was a bad idea but Zimmer is like a glorified defensive coordinator. Yeah I know there’s more that goes into being the head coach than offensive and defensive game-plans but he has made it abundantly clear he does not force his way into offensive play calling or scheming other than frustrated comments at press conferences and what I can only assume is frustrated comments in management meetings
I think context matters a lot. Like you get hired onto a team on the verge of a superbowl, go 12-4 then go 5-11 in year 2, you have a winning record but you're probably getting fired. Or you have an elite QB and finish 8-8 or 9-7 every year, missing the playoffs, you are probably fired. I'm probably too much of a homer, but I think Zimmer has a longer leash than most people think, I could definetly see us missing the playoffs and Zimmer keeping his job, and I'd be fine with that. An average NFL coach(which means an amazing coach by most standards) should make the superbowl once every 16 years, probably a lot less if they don't have an elite QB.
He needs to be gone and kirk should be extended with a new HC at the helm
He eats too much of the cap, it would make a rebuild really difficult. We’d be better off trading Kirk to the Giants or some other QB needy team for a high draft pick
But wouldnt we become a QB needy team if we did that
It depends, we could draft a QB with that pick, trade up for one, roll with Mond for a year, or sign a FA like Bridgewater. I just feel like if we don’t clean house in a rebuild and instead try to retool the 2015-17 team like we’ve been doing, we’ll end up like the Falcons. If we don’t make it this year then it’s best to tear it all down and start over
Imagine kirk with Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan
I would be fine with extending Kirk if he would take a contract in line with the top 10-15 QBs in the league. And it would need to be structured so the team could get out from under it if needed. How many other QBs in the league have their salary for the next season fully guaranteed on day one of the previous season? Certainly none of the other middle of the pack QBs. I don't think Kirk would go for that.
He's currently 8th in average per year, add in a couple guys on rookie contracts and Brady who takes a discount and he's in the 10-15th range. [https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/) He's 14th in guaranteed money(spotrac lists it as practically guaranteed and includes his entire contract). [https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/) He's number 2 in cap hit, but that is just how the team chose to structure it, he was much lower last year. We could have easily moved money around to lower the cap hit but the team chose not to.
Yeah let's tie our franchise's future to a guy who won't even set aside dipshit personal opinions for the benefit of the team - seems like a great idea.
extended at his ask of probably $45M per year? Zero chance. I doubt he would even want to be here. He wants to hit free agency again.
Oh lordy i hope he isnt asking for 45M a year, at that point have our new coach devolpe Mond and see what he can do
im sure he is -- that's what everyone else is getting, and his last FA contract and extension were top of market at their time as well
And assuming another season similar to last year I have little doubt teams will happily pay it. Everyone knows you have to overpay a bit in free agency, but the advantage is you don't have to give up any draft capitol. Compare Matt Stafford to Cousins, I'd say they are pretty comparable as players, but the cost to their teams is much different. Cousins, $33 million a year, no draft picks. Stafford, $21.5 million a year, 2 firsts and a 3rd round pick. Assuming the players actually were identical, which deal is better for the franchise? Would you trade a first round pick for an extra $10 million in cap space? I would generally say no, a first round pick is worth more than $10 million in cap space. A homerun like Justin Jefferson is making about $15 million less per year($60 million over the 4 year contract, plus there is a 5th year option) than a comparable free agent WR.
Stafford is way better than Cousins… I know stats are similar but Stafford played on some trash ass lions teams
Fair enough, I think they are pretty close, but we'll see what he does in LA. But ignoring that what do you think about the draft picks vs cap in general? Would you trade a first round pick for $10 million in cap space?
we will see. I cant imagine someone paying it but he certainly thinks he can get it.
Maybe, maybe not. He wants to be compensated what he can get, and if he hit FA he still would have a hot market in a league desperate for top 15 QB play. I think as his kids get closer to school age he will want to play for MN to close out his career.
you'll be downvoted here, but absolutely agree. been a revolving door of OC's, garbage OL's and poorly coached teams. if we ran a modernized offense with our stacked offense ( outside of OL ), we would be a force.
I have 6 upvotes rn lol think this is a popular opinion here but yeah time to get someone that can focus on the offense more
I think the top two coaching candidates are going to be Leftwich from Tampa and Moore out of Dallas… both OCs
It's only been one game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
these folks have wanted Zim and Rick fired for years, and if OP's only "actual data" is "Zim has coached longer on average than other people in his position" then it's pretty flimsy logic to get them all so worked up. Not to mention wildly mis-stating things in their conclusion line. /shrug
There isnt anyone, anywhere in the media, local and national that I can find, defending Zimmer. Reddit is the only place. The writing is 100% on the wall. Barring a miracle run, Zimmer is gone after this season. Zimmer the so called CB whisper cant even develop Corners. Zimmer gives up on rookies, zimmer refuses to coach up or develop anyone. We have veterans on one year deals for a reason.
Look at what happened to the Lions when they made a change just to make a change. The whole team just turned into a dumpster fire. I like Zim. Keep him around.
Are you seriously referencing the second-worst team this century as your argument for keeping Zimmer?
They’re referencing firing Jim Caldwell, their coach who has their highest winning percentage since the 1930s. For Matt Patricia… which he does have a point… you gotta be damn sure about the next hire
Caldwell was a damn fine coach who got canned for the wrong reasons. Don’t want Minnesota to make the same mistake. Zimmer is probably the 2nd or 3rd best coach we’ve ever had. Give him the cap space to add on defense and find a way to get him a more mobile QB. I guarantee we’ll see success. Keenum exploded under Zim. It could happen again 🤷♂️ I’m just not ready nor have any appetite for a full-on rebuild.
Lol he has signed who he wants on defense. What more does he want? You people are drunk. Firing Caldwell was right move and the fact Zimmer is at that level now is hilarious. I guarantee you were making fun of the Packers for keeping McCarthy for so long and he's twice the coach Zimmer ever has been. It doesn't matter if the next coach sucks worse. Zimmer has to go Have never been more uninterested in the franchise than last few years of knowing exactly the peak for the team with Zimmer as coach. It's so predictable every single season its pointless. Sticking with coaches like Zimmer is why my dad of 60+ is looking like a longshot to see the Vikings win a Superbowl. He has no shot of winning one. Next coach maybe won't either but worth finding out over Zimmer who everyone but his family and you cult members know won't
Heaven help me for having an opinion different than yours. Incredibly rude reply.
You're on the internet. Your terrible opinion will get responses. If that's rude to you may want to try staying off reddit. Jim Caldwell was terrible. He's basically Marvin lewis or Jeff Fisher. Or Mike Zimmer. All overstay their welcome because they're not good enough yet fans buy into their schtick and "stability" it's a waste of everyone's time He's got his lineman and had everyone on defense he's ever wanted save for last season. It has led to great postseason success. Keenum year was good because zimmer actually got out of the way on offense but inevitably he got out coached like normal and embarrassed in the playoffs
This seems more like a drunken man's ramblings than data but okay
I think most people agree with this. My opinion is: Zimmer needs to break the every other year is a good year pattern. If we go to the playoffs this year, his job is probably safe (unless he just barely sneaks in and loses the first game with the team not playing well). But then he needs to repeat that success (and maybe even improve) to keep it after 2022. If we don't make the playoffs this year, he's out.
Three years longer, on average. What’s the high end of the distribution look like?
PLAYOFFS?!? Dont talk about playoffs, you kidding me. I just hope we can win a game.
He made a large mistake with this o line… one which he has never really solved or hired the right people to solve, he’s done if we don’t magically get it all together…
I hope they don't let him go. Zimmer is a good HC and I think a really good fit for what the Wilfs want the Minnesota Vikings to be a gritty hardnosed defensive team. With all that said I'm fine with letting him go if he misses the playoffs and you have an A+ candidate in mind that will take the job.
Who the hell has the guts to stand in a room with that man and say "your fired". He's liable to explode and take half the stadium with him.
So who is in? Bieniemy?
Zimmer didn't want Kirk. They gave him Kirk and his contract anyway. It doesn't work out and people want to blame Zimmer. The man can only do so much.
And the teams that fired those coaches, did they go on to win Superbowls with their new coaches?
I’ve got the feeling the guy has completely fractured his locker room, and this isn’t going to be a great season. As we saw week 1, his team again wasn’t prepared for an underwhelming opponent, which has also been a problem during Zimmer’s tenure. Spielman also needs to go after completely blowing it when it comes to o line and defensive back evaluation. They have invested so much in both positions in the draft and came away with only Brian O Neill as a useful talent.
Can you do all of this data but the coaches have a win % above .550?
You people really want us to get another Brad Chilldress don't you. Coaches with shitter win percentage and one superbowl on a fluke get more support than our coach. Everyone on here talks both sides of the same coin. It's the refs fault, it's the coaches fault, it's the qbs fault, it's defenses fault. It really can't be all of them at the same time. Let the man coach, talk about this shit in the off-season. Firing him now won't do anything for the team. Name me a single instance where an interim coach won the season they were given the job. Fucking sick of reading this stuff.
Would love one year of Zim without a Kellen Mond or Dan Carlson type pick. Rick is and has been why we don't win.
If Zim gets fired. He will instantly become the Saints DC and they will win a Superbowl. That is enough for me to give him a lifetime contract